International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET)
e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 12 Issue: 04 | Apr 2025
p-ISSN: 2395-0072
www.irjet.net
Wildfire Forecasting using AI-based DDDAS Propagation Prediction Darshan Bhavesh Mehta1, 1Independent AI Researcher, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
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Abstract - Wildfire annihilate thousands of hectares of
remains a critical priority, necessitating tools like FACTS devices. These systems regulate power flow, maximize line capacity, and enhance operational resilience, ensuring reliable electricity delivery in evolving grids.
global forestland annually. Predicting fire behavior is pivotal for coordinating mitigation resources and managing response efforts during such disasters. Fire spread forecasting systems require diverse data inputs plagued by uncertainties, such as meteorological forecasts and vegetation maps. The dynamic nature of wildfires demands adaptable prediction tools. This study applies two fire spread prediction systems based on the Dynamic Data-Driven Application System (DDDAS) framework and introduces a hybrid method that merges both approaches. The solution leverages high-performance computing to deliver rapid, real-time predictions.
The integration of power electronic components in FACTS devices boosts control precision and increases power transfer capacity. By embedding FACTS into transmission networks, these systems can evolve into smarter, more adaptable infrastructures. Controllers like STATCOM, TCSC, SSSC, and SVC enable real-time adjustments to grid conditions, improving voltage stability and power quality. Reactive power deficits—often caused by faults, heavy loads, or voltage swings—are mitigated through FACTS devices, which dynamically inject or absorb reactive power to maintain equilibrium. FACTS devices enhance power flow management, suppress oscillations, reduce environmental footprint, and offer cost-effective alternatives to traditional grid upgrades. Among these, the Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) stands out. Its primary function is to adjust transmission line power distribution by modulating voltage magnitude and phase angle via a series voltage input[6][2]. This control over real and reactive power optimizes line usage, enabling operation closer to thermal limits while bolstering transient and small-signal stability. The UPFC combines impedance, voltage, and phase-angle compensation for comprehensive grid support (Figure 2). It employs two voltage source converters: a shunt converter (STATCOM) and a series converter (SSSC). The STATCOM supplies reactive power to the grid and maintains DC link voltage, while the SSSC injects a controlled series voltage into the transmission line. Both converters are linked via a shared DC capacitor, which acts as an energy buffer. The UPFC’s shunt and series converters must balance active power exchange to ensure stability. The shunt converter draws active power to sustain the DC link, while the series converter injects it into the line[12][14]. This coordination, coupled with independent reactive power regulation in both converters, enables precise power flow control. A coupling transformer integrates the UPFC with the grid, ensuring seamless interaction.
Keywords: Dynamic data-driven systems, parallel computation, uncertain data integration, predictive modeling, wildfire simulation.
1.INTRODUCTION Ensuring reliable electrical power has become increasingly critical for utilities and consumers [1][2][3]. Voltage fluctuations, transients, and waveform distortions caused by grid or equipment disturbances can compromise power quality (PQ)—defined as maintaining stable voltage/current waveforms at specified frequencies and magnitudes with minimal distortion. The proliferation of power electronics in devices like industrial drives, renewable energy systems, and smart appliances has heightened grid vulnerability to PQ disruptions. Non-linear loads, including rectifiers and variable-speed motors, distort sinusoidal waveforms, leading to issues such as harmonics, voltage sags/swells, imbalances, and flicker. These disturbances threaten equipment reliability, operational efficiency, and system safety. For instance, voltage sags can trip sensitive machinery, while harmonics overheat transformers. Addressing PQ challenges is now essential to safeguarding modern power infrastructure and ensuring uninterrupted service in an era dominated by electronics-dependent technologies. Innovations in power electronics have spurred transformative developments, particularly in power quality management through technologies like FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems) and tailored power solutions. These advancements enable enhanced grid control, improving stability and efficiency. Modern power systems operate under deregulated frameworks, where generation, transmission, and distribution are decoupled to reduce costs. With escalating energy demands, optimizing existing power plants and operating transmission lines near thermal limits is essential for stability[7]. Reducing transmission losses
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1.1 Cardona Fire, Catalonia, Spain The 2005 Cardona Fire in Catalonia, Spain (41°54' N, 1°40' E), which burned 1,439 hectares over five hours on July 8, underscores the challenges of predicting dynamic environmental events. The fire, ignited at 14:45 and contained by 19:45, exhibited a rapid acceleration from ~10 m/min to ~100 m/min two hours post-ignition, despite
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