The Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on World GDP

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056

Volume: 09 Issue: 08 | Aug 2022 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072

The Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on World GDP

Aditya Ghatage

Student, Department of Artificial Intelligence and Data Science, AISSMS Institute of Information Technology, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, Maharashtra, India ***

Abstract - This paper examines the effects of a pandemic on the gross domestic product. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations are just a few of the agencies that establish a country's GDP figures. This research offers important analysis of GDP fluctuation in relation to the global corona virus pandemic. The main purpose of bringing up this outbreak was to illustrate how the global economy is fundamentally regulated. The GDP for the period of 2020 to 2022 has been considered. The primary focus of the study is to examine how the global economic downturn affects the Gross Domestic Product.

Key Words: Gross Domestic Product, Plotly Express, Streamlit,DataScience,Webscrapping,WebApplication

1. INTRODUCTION

Intheyear2020,therewasanevidenceofanewstrainof virusinthecityofWuhan,Chinawasinitiallythesourceof the SARS-CoV-2 infection, which ultimately resulted in a spikeinCovid-19casesacrosstheglobe.Duetointernational trade and travel the virus spread across the world very quickly.Thisunexpectedoutbreaknotonlyposedaserious threat to human health on a global scale, but also substantiallyworsenedtheGDP.Thefundamentalcauseof this global recession was the implementation of safety standardsthatrestrictedindividualsthroughthequarantine. The bizarre mutations of the new coronavirus known as Covid-19 have impacted the whole world and are contributing to economic collapse in several countries. Numerouscountriesobservedasimilarpatterninorderto combatthisdisguised pandemic, whichimpacteda haltin globaleconomy.Thepandemichashadatremendousimpact on the global economy, affecting both developed and emergingnationsincludingtheUnitedStates,Germany,Italy, Brazil, and India, and most notably, consumers and businesses have changed their purchasing behaviour as a resultofunrestconditions.

Pandemicshaveashort-termbudgetaryimpactinaddition to a long-term economic impact on countries all over the world. Efforts to contain the pandemic include enforcing quarantine, preparing medical facilities, isolating infected patients,andtracingcontacts,whicheachrequireadditional health resources, human resources, and implementation costs. In lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), where budgetaryconstraintsaremorestringentandtaxsystems stilllackrefinement,pandemicscanalsoresultinreduced taxreceiptsandincreasedspending,whichgeneratesfiscal

stress.Economicshocksarereminiscentduringpandemics becauseoflabourshortagescausedbyillness,anupsurgein mortality,andfear-inducedbehaviours.Inresponsetothe outbreak,theriskintheglobaleconomyhasbeenmagnified. Thispaperisconstructedtostrictlyadheretotheeconomic transitionofvariouscountriesbasedontheirGDPgrowth rate indices altered over the course of corona virus pandemic.

Fig.-1:CommonwealthcountriesbyGDP(PPP)

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

In the year 2020 the global spread of COVID-19 was accelerating.Nearly206countriesweresubjecttoCOVID-19 instances, according to the WHO. With the global GDP dropping by up to 3.9% and developing countries being impactedtheworst(4%onaverage,butsomeabove6.5%), therewasalargepotentiallossofincomeintheimpacted nations. The affected firms and households required substantialassistancefrom thegovernments.Globalvalue chainstradeincertainwaysbasedoninput/outputlinkages andpresumptionsthatresemblethetenacityoftiesbetween businesses in value chains. (Maryla Maliszewska, Aaditya Mattoo,DominiquevanderMensbrugghe.,2020)

Sincemostnationshaveexperienceddouble-digitnegative economic growth, the annualized GDP growth reveals an evengreaterimpact.Thegreatesteconomyintheworld,the UnitedStates,sawa1.3%declineinGDPgrowthfromthe prior quarter from January to April. As a result of the pandemic's intensity, the US economy imposed regional travel restrictions in the middle of March. Mexico faced a similarpredicamenttotheUnitedStates,whenlimitations

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056

Volume: 09 Issue: 07 | July 2022 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072

were imposed in mid-March and GDP growth declined by 1.6%in thefirst quarter of 2020.Tocombatthedisease's spread, European countries suchasItaly,Spain, Germany, andFrance,thefourlargestEuroeconomieswiththehighest numberofcasesinstitutedastricterkindoflockdown.Inthe firstquarterof2020,thestringentlockdownmeasuresledto economic contractions of 5.34%, 5.24%, and 5.31% in France, Spain, and Italy, respectively. Germany, the Eurozone'slargesteconomy,sawa2.2%GDPdropduring the same period. Although the pandemic outbreak curve flattened in European countries by the end of June, the second quarter of 2020 sawa sharp decline in GDP as a result of the complete cessation of economic activity.

TheglobaleconomicimpactoftheSars-Cov-2virushasbeen the subject of numerous factual parallels in both industrialized and developing countries. Despite the abundanceofarticlesdiscussingtheimpactofCOVID-19on international trade markets, factual resources about developing or underdeveloped economies are few and far between.Myresearchtriestoinvestigatetheeffectsofthe Corona Virusoutbreak on the GDP of nations in order to provide insight on this segment. I havecreated a website application that separates the GDP of nations into sectors andevaluatestheireffectsbasedonanumberofvariables. Thisapplicationisusedtoimproveresearchonvariationsin estimatedgrossproductbroughtonbythepandemicandthe imposed lockdown measures undertaken by various countries. This paper tries to understand the impact of COVID-19 on themonetary valuation of Indian assets and globalassetsbecauseIndiaisoneofthedominantcountries intheemergingeconomy.Testingtheunpredictabilityofthe globalnominalGDPcanbeusefullydoneusingStreamlitand Plotly.Moreover,therearen'tmanywritingsthatexamine the arrival of the GDP growth/decline factor before and duringtheCOVID-19situation.Similarly,myassessmenthas tried to analyse the monetary valuation ofnational assetswhileconsideringthetworelevanttimeperiods.

3. ALGORITHM

Theanalogies weusedin ourapplicationare discussed in thissection.Here,we'veprovidedadetailedexplanationof ourapplicationworkflowthroughouttheentireprocedure

3.1. GDP of countries(nominal):

The market value of all finished products and services producedbyacountryinagivenyearisknownasitsgross domestic product (GDP). Countries are categorised according to nominal GDP estimates from financial and statisticalorganisationsestimatedatmarketorgovernment official exchange rates. Nominal GDPdoes notaccountfor variations in living expenses between nations, and the findings might shift significantly from year to year

dependingonchangesinthevalueofthecountry'scurrency. Despitethefactthatthesevariationsfrequentlyhavelittleto no impact on the population's level of living, they might causecountry'srankingtoshiftfromoneyeartothenext.In ordertoaccountforvariationsinthecostoflivinginvarious nations, comparisons of national wealth are typically performedonthebasisofpurchasingpowerparity(PPP). Othermeasurements,suchasnominalGDPpercapitaand GDP (PPP) per capita, are used to compare country standards of living. Comparing PPP per capita data to nominal GDP per capita data, the disparity is generally smaller. The relative performance of different countries' economy has changed significantly over time; in terms of totaloutput,theUnitedStatesovertooktheBritishEmpirein 1916,whichhadinturnovertakentheQingdynastydecades earlier.Sinceeconomicliberalisationwasputintoplacein theearly1990s,amongothercountries,Indiahasalsoseen itseconomyflourish.

Fig-2:LargesteconomiesintheworldbyGDP(Nominal) in2022accordingtoInternationalMonetaryFund estimate

3.2.

Streamlit Library:

Streamlitisanopen-sourcePythonlibraryforcreatingand sharing beautiful, unique web applications for Artificial IntelligenceandDataScience.Here,weusedthislibraryto createawebapplicationtoanalysetheGDPofcountriesover a specifiedtime frame prior to and following the Corona virus epidemic. This module seamlessly incorporates website functions while supporting Python. The speed of network deployment was accelerated by Streamlit's simplicityoffrontendandbackendoperations.

Fig.-3:StreamlitApplicationIntegration

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056

Volume: 09 Issue: 07 | July 2022 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072

3.3. Ploty Express:

PlotlyExpress,orPX,isthenamegiventotheplotly.express module,whichistypicallyimportedaspxandhasfunctions thatcanproducewholefiguresatonce.PlotlyExpressisa built-incomponentoftheplotlylibraryandisthesuggested startingpointforconstructingmostcommonfigures.Each Plotly Express method returns a plotly.graph objects and internallyusesagraphobject.Asanillustration.ThePlotly Expressmethodofconstructingfigurescanbefoundatthe topofanypagethatappliesintheplotlymanual,followedby instructions on how to use graph objects to create comparablefigures.AnyfigureproducedbyPlotlyExpressin a single function call could be produced using only graph objects,butthiswouldneed5to100timesasmuchcode. Forthecreationofvarioustypesoffigures,PlotlyExpress offers more than 30 functionalities. It is simple to move between a scatter plot, a bar chart, a histogram, and a sunburstchartduringadataexplorationsessionsincethe API for these functions was deliberately created to be as consistentandsimpletounderstandaspossible.

3.4. Website Scrapping:

The term "web scraping" refers to the process of using a computerorpieceofcodetoextractandmanagealotofdata from the internet. We used the popular Python package "pandas" in this study since it is well known for handling structureddatainavarietyofformats,includingarrays,lists, URLs, CSV files, and more. This library provides data extractionforhtml retrieval usingURL fromopenservers likeWikipedia,datamart,etc.Inasimilarmanner,weused anhtmltablescrapingtechniqueusingproperindexingand a python data frame to implement the GDP of countries (nominal)databasefromWikipediaforthisresearch.

Fig-5:WebsiteScrappingAlgorithm

Website Application:

Awebapplicationisdefinedasanapplicationprogramme that is required for a web server, as opposed to PC-based algorithmic applications that are run locally on the machine'soperatingsystem(OS).Theclientimplementsweb applications using an internet browser and a working network association. In a similar way, wehave set up our exploratorydataanalysiswebsiteapplicationonStreamlit server hosted on local host during prototype version and subsequentlydeployedtoHerokuforsettingupthewebsite applicationfunctionssuchasscrollsidebars,visualization plots,xandyaxisparameterselectiondatabaseintegration, andmanymore.

Fig-4:WebsiteScrappingfromWikipedia

Fig-6:WebsiteApplicationhostedonLocalHost

4. CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 epidemic shows few indications of being contained,butitsnegativeeffectsonthenation'seconomic growthareexpectedtobesevere.TheUnitedNationswarns

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056

Volume: 09 Issue: 07 | July 2022 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072

that the coronavirus pandemic is predicted to have a substantial negative impact on the world economy, with India'sGDPgrowthforthecurrenteconomyprojectedtofall to4.8%asof2020(UnitedNation2020).Similartothis,the UN's Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)2020reportedthatCOVID-19willhavesignificant socioeconomic effects in the region with a surge in crossborderactivityinthefieldsoftourism,trade,andfinancial linkages. (Shankar Das, P. R. Sodani, Monika Chaudhary., 2020).TheCOVID-19epidemichasshatteredthefoundation oftheglobaleconomy.Thecountriesshouldimplementthe proper policy measures in order to support the GDP. The emergencywouldhavebeenfarworseifnoextraordinary measureshadbeentaken.Estimatesoftheliquidityinfusion needtobemadeappropriately.

Fig-8:EDAonGDPgrowthofIndia

Fig.-7: PlotandAxisSelectionFunctionality

Inarecentrevision,theReserveBankofIndiareducedits earlier estimate of the growth rate of the gross domestic product for 2021 from a minus 9.5 percent to a negative 7.5%.Thisisamoreoptimisticforecastsince,intheRBI's opinion,India'seconomicrecoveryhasacceleratedafterthe festiveseason.Thecurrentconsumerpriceindexinflation has already above the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance ceilingof4%,hencetheseassumptionsmaynotprovetobe reliable. According to data from October 2020, headline inflation is significantly higher than 7% and food and beverageinflationissignificantlyhigherthan11%.Sincethe rate of inflation exceeded its declared maximum limit of tolerance,whichissetat6%,theRBIwasforcedtosuspend its attempts to reduce the cost of credit beyond these enablingfacilities.Ifinflationcontinuestorise,thecentral bankmaybeforcedtoboostpolicyrates.Asignificantarea of ambiguity still exists, and the immediate future is unknown.

Fig.-9:EDAonGDPgrowthofUSA

Fig-10:EDAonGDPgrowthofGermany

While using this online approach for exploratory data analysis,wewilltypicallyobtainaccurateresults,thereisa chancethatinsomeGDPscenarios,specificallythenegative effects of GDP, may not have been caught. However, the majorityofthetimewewillseeacleartrend.Thereisarisk of5%ambiguitywhenourapplicationscrapesregion-based relevantdataforuncertaintyinGDPovervariousregionsof theworld.Weshalldemonstrateaconvincingtrendingross valuation over time using cutting-edge visualization tools. The only issue is that a small number of countries' GDP valuations contain erroneous frames, and it is possible to identifythoseframes,whichmakesitdifficulttodrawfirm conclusions. There is a minor risk, in favour of odd, that plotlywon'tdeliveranappropriateplotfordataanalysison raw data without any further alteration. This tool might serveasadevelopmentsandboxforinvestigatingeconomic downturns and their effects on the countries with the highestGDPs.

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056

REFERENCES

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[2] Maliszewska,M.,Mattoo,A.,&vanderMensbrugghe,D. (2020, April 13). The potential impact of covid-19 on GDP and trade: A preliminary assessment. SSRN. Retrieved August 16, 2022, from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3 573211

[3] Jena, P. R., Majhi, R., Kalli, R., Managi, S., & Majhi, B. (2021).Impactofcovid-19onGDPofmajoreconomies: Applicationoftheartificialneuralnetworkforecaster. Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 324–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.013

[4] Wikimedia Foundation. (2022, August 12). List of countries by GDP (nominal). Wikipedia. Retrieved August 16, 2022, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GD P_(nominal)

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[6] UnitedNations.(2020).Economicandsocialsurveyof Asia andthePacific EconomicandSocial Commission for Asia and the Pacific Decade of Action (ESCAP) https://www.unilibrary.org/content/books/9789210049788

[7] Board,T.E.(2020,December28).Greyareas:Negative GDPgrowth.editorial-Greyareas:negativeGDPgrowth - Telegraph India. Retrieved August 16, 2022, from https://www.telegraphindia.com/opinion/grey-areasnegative-gdp-growth/cid/1801950

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