International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) Volume: 09 Issue: 05 | May 2022
www.irjet.net
e-ISSN: 2395-0056 p-ISSN: 2395-0072
COVID-19 FUTURE FORECASTING USING SUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING MODELS S. LAXMAN PRASAD1, V. TANUJA2, T.SAI REVATHI3, V. PRADEEP SIVARAM4 1,2,3,4
Final Year B.Tech, Department of Computer Science Engineering, SVPE COLLEGE, Andhra Pradesh, India Guided by G.Sandhya, Associate Professor, SVPEC, Visakhapatnam, A.P, India.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------***-------------------------------------------------------------------------ABSTRACT: Machine learning (ML) based forecasting has proved compelling to prepare for outcomes to enhance the decision making on the future course of actions. previously, many applications have been developed using Machine Learning in various fields .Certain prediction methods are being popularly used to handle forecasting issues. This study Tells the capability of ML models to forecast the number of upcoming patients affected by COVID-19 which is nowadays considered a danger to mankind. Especially, four standard forecasting models, such as support vector machine, linear regression, least absolute shrinkage, selection operator, and exponential smoothing have been used in this study to forecast the cautionary factors of covid-19. Few types of predictions are made by the models, such as the number of newly infected cases, number of deaths, and number of recoveries in the next 10 days. The outcome produced by the study proves it a promising tool to use these methods for the current scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic. The outcomes confirm that the ES performs superior among all models followed by LR and LASSO which performs excellently in forecasting the new confirmed cases, death rate as well as healing rate, while SVM performs inadequately in all the prediction methods given in the general dataset.
Keywords: COVID-19, Machine Learning, Prediction, Pandemic, future forecasting, Supervised Learning 1. INTRODUCTION Machine Learning may be a rapidly evolving and continuously developing field. Recently, many applications are developed using Machine Learning in various fields like healthcare, banking, military equipment, space, autonomous vehicle (AV), business applications, tongue processing (NLP), intelligent robots, gaming, and climate modeling.ML algorithmsā learning is usually supported an effort and error method quite opposing conventional algorithms, which follow the programming instructions supported decision statements like if-else. particularly, the study is concentrated on live forecasting of COVID19 confirmed cases, and also the study is additionally focused on the forecast of COVID-19 outbreak and early response. These prediction systems will be helpful in decision-making to handle the current scenario very virtually. This study desires to supply an earlier forecast model for the spread of novel coronavirus, also referred to as SARS-CoV-2, officially named COVID-19 by the planet Health Organization (WHO). COVID-19 is presently a really extreme danger to human life everywhere the planet. At the tip of 2019, the virus was first identified in a very city of China called Wuhan, when an vast number of individuals developed symptoms like pneumonia.. Coronavirus spread from one city to an entire country in precisely 30 days. On Feb 11, it had been named COVID-19 by World Health Organisation (WHO).. many thousands of individuals are stricken by this pandemic throughout the planet with thousands of deaths every coming day. Thousands of recent people are reported to be positive on a daily basis from Countries across the globe.The virus spreads primarily through close person-to-person physical contact, by respiratory droplets, or by touching the contaminated surfaces. The most difficult aspect of its spread is that a person can possess the virus for many days without showing symptoms. The causes of its spread and considering its danger, almost all the countries have declared strict lockdowns throughout the affected regions and cities. COVID-19 has spread across the globe with around 213 countries and territories affected. The rise in the number of cases of infected coronavirus quickly outnumbered the available medical resources in hospitals, resulting in a significant burden on the health care systems. Due to the limited availability of resources at hospitals and the time delay for the results of the medical tests, it is a distinct situation for health workers to give proper medical treatment to the patients. As the number of cases to test for coronavirus is increasing fast day by day, it is not possible to test due to the time and cost factors. we use machine learning techniques to predict the infection of the coronavirus in patient.
2. METHODOLOGY The study is about novel coronavirus also referred to as COVID-19 predictions. It causes tens of thousands of deaths and also the death rate is increasing day by day throughout the world. To contribute to the present pandemic situation control
Ā© 2022, IRJET
|
Impact Factor value: 7.529
|
ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal
|
Page 606