International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET)
e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume:11 Issue:04 | Apr 2024
p-ISSN: 2395-0072
www.irjet.net
Assessment of Climate Change Effects on rain fed crop Productions: The case of Smallholder Farmers of West Shoa Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia. Melkamu Debelo Geleta*, Assale Malka Kussia, Tsehaye Adamu Andualem aTongji University, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai, 200092, P. R. China; a*Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------***------------------------------------------------------------------------Abstract Rain-fed crop production is inherently susceptible to climate variations, making it a vulnerable sector in all nations. However, the impact of climate change is disproportionately felt by the poorest nations and their citizens due to their limited coping mechanisms. Therefore, the objective of this research is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the local climate trends in the west shoa zone of the Oromia region. Specifically, the study aims to investigate how these trends affect rain-fed crop production in different agro-ecologies and how smallholder farmers are adapting their farming practices to cope with the current climate variability and change. Additionally, the study examines the typical weather patterns in the area, the significance of indigenous knowledge, and the institutional coping strategies that are currently being employed. To achieve these objectives, two research techniques were employed. Firstly, monthly time series data on temperature and precipitation from three stations (Bako, Ambo, and Holeta) within the zone were analyzed using the Mann Kendall trend test at a 95% significance level to assess temporal monotonic trends. Secondly, semi-structured questionnaire-based interviews and group discussions were conducted. The trend evaluation at the three stations revealed relatively stable precipitation trends, with sample Z-values of 0.29, -0.27, and -0.97 for Bako, Ambo, and Holeta, respectively. In contrast, the analysis showed a significant increase in temperature, with Z-values of 3.54, 1.84, and 2.78 for the respective stations. Furthermore, the socio-economic data analysis indicated that the occurrence and frequency of weather events varied across different locations within the research area. The most prevalent events were prolonged drought, including late onset or early offset (71.2%), flood or excessive moisture (53.8%), heavy rain (32.6%), frost (20.5%), and strong winds (4.5%). These events hinder agricultural operations and have diverse impacts on rain-fed crop production, which relies on normal distribution and the timely onset and offset of the rainy season. The issue becomes more severe in areas with mid-altitude and lowland terrain. According to the survey, the main consequences include complete crop loss, reduced yield, decreased seeding area, delayed seeding and maturity, as well as an increase in crop pests. In order to adapt, smallholder farmers employ various strategies such as accepting the loss, replacing crops, diversifying their crop selection, practicing late seeding, cultivating early maturing crops, implementing zero or minimum tillage techniques, and growing tolerant crops. Additionally, these farmers rely on local knowledge, such as traditional early warning systems and tillage practices, to cope with adverse weather events. Despite their efforts, smallholder farmers face challenges due to limited resources including efficient technologies, land, labor, savings, credits, and crop insurance. Although the long-term mean values of precipitation remain stable, there is significant seasonal and inter-annual variability. Moreover, the small fluctuations in precipitation and temperature have a substantial impact on rain-fed crop production, compounded by other biophysical and socio-economic factors. Therefore, this study highlights that even minor weather shocks can have significant consequences, emphasizing the need to enhance adaptation options, allocate resources appropriately, and provide timely information on future climate change to enable farmers to take necessary preventive actions. Key words: Climate change, climate trend, adaptation, mitigation, rainfall, impact, coping mechanisms
Chapter 1 Introduction and Background Climate change is currently a pressing issue that is being addressed at various levels, including local, national, regional, and global. Although there is ongoing discussion regarding the extent to which human activities have contributed to climate change, there is a general consensus that its impacts are evident through changes in weather patterns, an increase in extreme weather
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