International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET)
e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 11 Issue: 02 | Feb 2024
p-ISSN: 2395-0072
www.irjet.net
Evaluating the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Ethiopia Assefa Molla Terefea, Mehari Mariyea, Markos Medhin Asheboa, Agimasie Demewozb aTongji University, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai,200092, China, b Ministry of Planning and Development, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
---------------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------Abstract There has been discussion over how various parts of the world's agricultural output may be affected by climate change. The agriculture industry has been adversely impacted on a global scale by recent climate change, resulting in negative effects across all economic sectors. This study aims to assess how Ethiopia's agricultural productivity has been impacted by climate change between 1991 and 2021. By investigating the relationship between agricultural inputs and outputs and concentrating on the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Ethiopia's agricultural sector, this study aims to close the gaps above in knowledge. To determine the relationship between the study variables and the data used to analyze how climate change may affect Ethiopia's agricultural productivity, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was used. When everything else is equal, an increase in the coefficient of variation of temperature will, over time, result in a 3.84% increase in the agricultural productivity of land, according to the results of the ARDL technique. Similarly, an increase in the precipitation coefficient as a percentage will result in a 0.48% rise in the land's agricultural productivity. Citrus Paribus, as well as The annual average temperature and precipitation, which are the study's primary variables and are employed as indicators of climate change, have mean values of 23.374 degrees Celsius and 86.938 mm, respectively. Additionally, the lowest recorded temperature during the period of 1991 was 22.92 degrees Celsius, while the highest recorded annual average temperature figure for 2013β2014 was 23.67 degrees Celsius. The findings of the correlation indicate a positive relationship between agricultural output and the following variables: yearly temperature, annual precipitation, fertilizer use, animal stock, and pesticides. The output of agriculture is negatively correlated with other factors, such as labor employment. Ethiopia will encounter difficulties with food security and safety as a result of its growing population. To ensure that there is enough food for the expanding population and to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on agriculture, the Ethiopian government needs to take possible steps. To put it succinctly, the analysis indicates that policy experts and lawmakers should recognize that climate change would alter the total output factors and that, as a result, an adaptation to the total factor of production pattern specific to a county or crop is required.
Keywords: agricultural productivity, climate change, Ethiopia 1. Introduction Agriculture is considered the most vulnerable to global climate change, the security of food is another issue that needs great concern to all humankind, and the influence of climate change on agriculture has attracted huge attention [1, 2]. Agriculture serves as a primary source of income for many rural communities and bears the brunt of climate change impacts to safeguard the livelihoods of impoverished rural households. Additionally, agriculture plays a crucial role in upholding food security[3, 4]. The agriculture sector's dependence on climate variability is a significant issue for economic progress, given that a large portion of the population resides in rural areas and is involved in both agricultural and non-agricultural pursuits[3, 5]. Farmers continually strive to adjust to fluctuations in weather and climatic conditions. Nevertheless, the broader scope of environmental and global climate changes has heightened the demand for farmers to devise and deploy more extensive resilience strategies [6-8]. One approach to mitigating the risks of climate change and safeguarding livelihoods and local food security is to adjust and adapt within the existing agricultural system. Though the type and scope of adaptation strategies vary from region to region, socio-economic and agro-ecological environments are constantly changing [9-12]. Hence, the production of food is facing disruptions due to shifts in weather patterns and climate change. Investigating the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Ethiopia is imperative.
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