International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET)
e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 12 Issue: 08 | Aug 2025
p-ISSN: 2395-0072
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“Analysis of Stock Price Trends by Polynomial Models: Empirical Study of Indian Banking, Auto, and Pharma Sectors” Nyrah Gupta --------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------Abstract - This research paper analyzes the stock price behavior of three major Indian companies — State Bank of India (SBI), Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. — through the application of mathematical modeling techniques. Historical stock price data was studied using Excel-based trendline tools to identify best-fit equations that represent the movement of each stock over time. The analysis revealed that SBI and Maruti stocks followed quadratic trends, reflecting steady growth patterns influenced by macroeconomic factors and sectoral stability. In contrast, Sun Pharma followed a cubic trend, indicating more complex fluctuations shaped by global pharma dynamics, regulatory events, and market cycles. The study further examines the relevance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the context of these stocks, suggesting that while SBI and Maruti largely align with semi-strong market efficiency, Sun Pharma reflects partial inefficiency due to information asymmetry and event-driven volatility. By combining quantitative modeling with theoretical finance, this paper provides insights into how different sectors behave in the Indian equity market and how mathematical tools can aid in forecasting and investment decisions.
Key Words: Stocks, trends, EMH, Mutual funds 1. INTRODUCTION: The stock market in India acts as a barometer for the economy and gauges investor confidence. It is one of the fastestgrowing economies in the world, having achieved a remarkable milestone in the capital markets since the economic liberalization in the 1990s. The two principal stock exchanges - Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) serve as India's financial system backbone as they facilitate the seamless flow of funds, liquidity provision to every sector, and foster corporate growth. India’s stock market has transformed from fragmented manual trading to an electronically linked, sophisticated system with global integration and stringent regulations. Agencies like SEBI have responsive policies that support enhanced transparency, protective measures for investors, and overall increased efficiency of the market aid greatly to regulating agency effectiveness. As such, diverse categories of investors—retail, institutional, and foreign—have been drawn to the Indian markets, which now feature various financial instruments such as equities, derivatives, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In addition, with the growth of retail investors, increased levels of digitalization, and integration into global markets, the Indian stock market is poised for phenomenal growth in the coming years. It still needs to deal with issues related to volatility, the unpredictability of macroeconomic factors, and global financial influences. The focus of this paper stems from a historical and contemporary lens on the Indian stock market concerning its structure, performance, regulatory framework, and emerging trends, and covers both sides of the analysis. The stock market is a complex system influenced by various factors such as economic conditions, political events, and investor sentiment, making stock price prediction a challenging task. Accurate forecasting, however, is essential for investors and financial institutions aiming to make informed decisions. To address this, mathematical models have been developed to analyze historical price data and identify patterns such as ARIMA or LSTM, which offer a structured approach to predicting future stock prices based on past trends. This paper explores the effectiveness of the [insert model] in forecasting stock prices using historical data. The goal is to understand how the model works and evaluate its accuracy in real-world financial scenarios.
2. BANKING SECTOR IN THE STOCK MARKET: Bank stocks are a major segment of the Indian stock market as they indicate the level of economic stability and liquidity, as well as credit activity within the country. The stocks signify equity stakes in banking companies and are subdivided into public sector banks (PSBs) and private sector banks. PSBs are state-owned banks incorporated in India, which dominate
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