START-UP DEBATE Is it better to HQ your company out of NZ?
KIWISAVER ROBOT MEGA TRENDS Will AI take over your How investment will be funds management? shaped by future forces
CHANGE OF GUARD Implications of the UK election results $6.5 MILLION QUESTION How high will Bitcoin go by 2050? MONEY STYLES Relationship, money and making it work
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Contents IN THIS ISSUE
08. Contributors Meet some of our expert contributors.
10. What We Like A showcase of trends, ideas and luxe living.
14. Essentials Fresh colour and vibrancy the key.
16. Let the Mega Force be with You There are massive inexorable forces on the horizon set to reshape the global economy and, as Amy Hamilton Chadwick explains, it will pay investors to keep across all of them.
23. Building on Success: Silverfin Capital’s Inghams Hatchery Scheme
This unique property syndicate is delivering a 7.5 per cent pre-tax annual distribution.
24. Going Up, Going Down Economist Cameron Bagrie takes a good, hard look at New Zealand and how we’re going as a nation.
26. Could Bitcoin Reach $6.5 Million by 2050? Using Santostasi’s pricing model, we can see where Bitcoin may go in the next quarter century if the fundamental value continues to hold, reports Easy Crypto.
28. The Grip That Could Strangle Kiwi Innovators We may like to believe in ingenuity and innovation, but overzealous attitudes to regulation, especially competition policy, risk suffocating technology startups, writes Peter Bale.
32. The Evolution of Ethical Investing A quiet revolution is brewing in the world of investing ... conscious investors are now looking to put their money where their values are, writes Olive Coulson.
34. Putting the Hard Yards in Can passive income help you achieve financial freedom? Amy Hamilton Chadwick says less TikTok and more time on the investment work clock is a start.
36. When the Right Advice Pays Off A financial adviser can give valuable guidance so you can get the most out of your money, says Consilium’s Scott Alman.
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38. So, What Did You Do in The 2020s, Granddad? Term deposits could be the saddest story you share with family in years to come, but it’s not too late to change the narrative, writes Martin Hawes.
42. Is a Robot Managing Your KiwiSaver? As we embrace the age of artificial intelligence, the question must be asked, is AI also managing our investments? Ben Tutty catches up with real people in the industry to find out.
46. Changing of the Guard in London The Labour Party’s recent victory in the UK election looks set to usher in political stability and – perhaps surprisingly given the party’s name – a more business-friendly government, writes Andrew Kenningham.
50. How to Embrace Your Money Style Differences Through open communication and a willingness to compromise, couples can turn financial differences into a source of mutual support and growth, writes Bridgette Jackson of Equal Exes.
52. Meet the Magnificent Eight Sam Stubbs predicts a bright future in which the finance industry and banks move aside as consumers call the shots.
54. Snapshot Events around the world that are affecting the investment market.
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Consilium NZ Limited is the issuer and manager of the KiwiWRAP KiwiSaver Scheme. The Product Disclosure Statement and a full list of investment options for the KiwiWRAP KiwiSaver Scheme is available at www.kiwiwrap.co.nz. *KiwiSaver Market Review 2023 (Melville Jessup Weaver).
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Contents 56. Playing it Softly Market performance this year now looks likely to be a bit softer, although it’s a relief that softer also appears to be a sentiment shared by the Reserve Bank, writes Kelvin Davidson.
59. The Benefits of Making a Will Making or updating a will is a relatively easy process and accurately reflects the changes in your life, writes Annabel Sheppard.
60. For Those in Peril by the Sea
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Property experts, researchers and policymakers warn climate change is a risk home buyers tend to ignore and do not price in as they enjoy living near the sea, rivers and creeks, writes Sally Lindsay.
64. The Future of Investing Property investors have it tougher in 2024 and, as Andrew Nicol writes, a challenging landscape demands strategic thinking.
66. Catering for the Way We Work and Invest Oyster Property Group is meeting changing needs with modern commercial property assets that will help shape the future of our cities.
70. Fashion Update
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The colours and styles of spring 2024.
72. Shimmering on a New Trading Platform Gold investing has traditionally been seen as an area for only the wealthy, but Goldie, a new high tech investment platform, is changing the scene, as Sally Lindsay reports.
74. Show me the Way to the New Santa Fe Liz Dobson takes a close look at the fifth generation of Hyundai’s Santa Fe, which breaks new ground for the popular SUV.
76. Time to Add a Warming Touch Interior designer Mary-anne Tobin, of Design Addiction, offers early glimpses into the interior trends for 2025 along with three essential tips for spring.
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80. New World of Whisky An opportunity to invest in new world whisky with a leading West Coast business.
EDITOR’S LET TER
The Future can be a Fickle Mistress
Published by: Opes Media Informed Investor 33 Federal Street, Auckland Central, Auckland. www.informedinvestor.co.nz
At this moment, while we can identify the forces that may affect our collective future, nothing is set in stone, but it pays to be prepared and informed as an investor. Investment is, by its nature, an act of optimism. When we invest in property, bonds, managed funds, et al we are handing over our fate (and our money) to the future, trusting it will reward us. But the future is fickle. Looking back, it’s possible to see how technology, social and political forces shape outcomes. But, at this moment, while we can identify the forces that may affect our collective future, nothing is set in stone. As Tennessee Williams put it: “The future is called ‘perhaps’, which is the only possible thing to call the future. And the important thing is not to allow that to scare you.” However, it pays to be prepared. Our lead story in this Future Focus issue was written by our excellent writer, Amy Hamilton Chadwick. In it she looks at the “mega trends” likely to impact the future of investing – AI, the ageing population, the hybrid working model and green energy transformation. Amy unpacks each of these to get a handle of the implications of each. It’s a fascinating read and there are alarming conclusions. But there are also silver linings: as we move towards a green future, investment can act as an impetus for positive change.
“The commission acted on competition grounds, mostly the impact on DJ hardware and mixing software in New Zealand, a market which accounts for less than one per cent of Serato’s turnover. In doing so, the commission may have stopped not just the Serato founders from cashing out but given other would-be startups pause,” writes Bale. Whether or not to HQ your start-up in New Zealand is an interesting question. The Commerce Commission decision is likely to raise the eyebrows of Kiwi entrepreneurs with their eyes to the future. Time, as they say, will tell the flow-on effect. Also, in this issue we explore the future of housing in a world of climate change. Sally Lindsay explores the implications of coastal and clifftop properties, which are already subject to erosion. Insurance cover will change dramatically in the next 20 years and those yearning for a home by the sea may be advised to think long and hard before purchasing. We also profile new gold investment app Goldie, check out the latest interior trends, and all the fashion for spring. We hope you enjoy the magazine.
Elsewhere in the magazine experienced international journo Peter Bale casts his eye over the controversial Commerce Commission ruling, which put the kibosh on the acquisition of Serato by Japanese parent company, Pioneer. The offer was NZ$100 million – a life changing number.
Joanna Mathers Editor
Editor Joanna Mathers
Resident economist Ed McKnight
Art Director Mark Glover
Printer Webstar
Account Manager Stephanie Bryant – 021 165 8018
Retail Distributor Are Direct
Subscriptions Jill Lewis – subscriptions@informedinvestor.co.nz This magazine is subject to NZ Media Council procedures. A complaint must first be directed in writing, within one month of publication, to the email address, stephanie@informedinvestor.co.nz. If not satisfied with the response, the complaint may be referred to the Media Council PO Box 10-879, The Terrace, Wellington 6143; info@mediacouncil. org.nz. Or use the online complaint form at www.mediacouncil.org.nz. Please include copies of the article and all correspondence with the publication. S P R I N G 2 0 2 4 | I N F O R M E D I NVESTO R 6
Informed Investor is an investment magazine published quarterly by Opes Media. You need Informed Investor’s written permission to reproduce any part of the magazine. Advertising statements and editorial opinions in Informed Investor reflect the views of the advertisers and editorial contributors, not Informed Investor and its staff. Informed Investor’s content comes from sources that Informed Investor considers accurate, but we don’t guarantee its accuracy. Charts in Informed Investor are visually indicative, not exact. The content of Informed Investor is intended as general information only, and you use it at your own risk: Informed Investor magazine is not liable to anybody in any way at all. Informed Investor does not contain financial advice as defined by the Financial Advisers Act 2008. Consult a suitably qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Informed Investor magazine does not give any representation regarding the quality, accuracy, completeness or merchantability of the information in this publication or that it is fit for any purpose. To advertise in Informed Investor, you must accept Informed Investor magazine’s advertising terms and conditions. Please contact Stephanie@informedinvestor.co.nz about advertising. Informed Investor is printed on environmentally responsible paper. The paper is produced using elemental chlorine-free pulp, sourced from sustainable and legally harvested farmed trees. The magazine is recyclable. PRINT ISSN 2744-6085 DIGITAL ISSN 2744-6093
UP FRONT
Meet Some of Our Contributors CAMERON BAGRIE
ANNABEL SHEPPARD
Cameron is the managing director of Bagrie Economics, a boutique research firm. He was previously chief economist at ANZ, a position he held for over 11 years.
Annabel Sheppard is a Partner in the Property & Estate Planning Team of Wynn Williams.
AMY HAMILTON CHADWICK
MARTIN HAWES
Amy specialises in property and finance journalism. She has been a writer and editor for almost 20 years. Amy is a registered financial adviser.
Martin is the chairman of the Summer KiwiSaver Investment Committee. He’s an authorised financial adviser and offers his services throughout New Zealand.
SCOTT ALMAN
SAM STUBBS
Scott is the Managing Director of Consilium and has been a leader in the Australasian financial services sector for more than 30 years. As founder of Consilium, Scott has led the business staying true to its founding principles to champion professional financial advice and those who deliver it.
Sam is the founder and MD of Simplicity, New Zealand’s only low-cost, nonprofit funds manager. Previously from the banking world having worked for Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets in London and Hong Kong, Sam believes the finance industry should be as much a force for good as a source of profit.
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C ONTRIBUTORS
KELVIN DAVIDSON
BEN TUTTY
Kelvin joined CoreLogic in March 2018 as senior research analyst, before moving into his current role of chief economist. He brings with him a wealth of experience, having spent 15 years working largely in private sector economic consultancies in both New Zealand and the UK.
Ben is an Auckland-based but not Auckland-bound property investor and freelance writer. He’s travelled and worked across Asia, Europe, and Australasia, writing for some of the biggest names in property and finance.
RICH LYONS
ANDREW KENNINGHAM
Rich is the retail investment manager of Oyster Property Group. He is responsible for overseeing both retail and wholesale equity raising for transactions, the growth of Oyster’s investors, and continuing to improve Oyster’s service offering to investors.
Andrew is the chief Europe economist for Capital Economics. He was previously an economic adviser for the United Kingdom Foreign Exchange.
MARY-ANNE TOBIN
ANDREW NICOL
Former senior underwriter turned qualified interior designer, Mary-Anne Tobin is constantly viewing the latest international trends and incorporating these into her designs. She also blends modern day aesthetics with practical solutions.
Andrew is an authorised financial adviser and the managing partner of Opes Partners. He has more than 15 years’ experience in banking, finance, and property.
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I NVE ST I N YO U R S E L F
What We Like
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A showcase of trends, ideas and luxe living.
International luxe Solitaire De Parnell’s jewellery collection features Italian designer brands known for their exquisite craftsmanship, complemented by captivating jewellery pieces from New York and collectable vintage jewellery pieces from around the world. The collection features a variety of options, from natural diamonds to Colombian emeralds, Burmese sapphires, pearl, turquoise and Mediterranean coral. Founded by Abi Tobia, originally an art painter who transitioned into jewellery more than two decades ago, Solitaire De Parnell offers a unique selection of refined, modern, and vintage jewellery driven by Abi’s passion for aesthetics and over 20 years of experience in the fine jewellery industry.
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1. Tennis Bracelet. blue graded-colour sapphire 7.0ct and diamond 0.59ct set In white gold 18k Tw 8.4g. $12,500 2. Ruby 1.16ct and diamond earrings set In gold 18k 2.5g. $9,750 3. Firenze Galaxy Ring, with pavé diamonds set in gold 18k pink champagne gold, by Cammilli. $20,850 4. Tennis Rivière Diamond Necklace. Total diamond weight 6.54ct. Set In white gold 14k. $18,950 5. Antique Old European Cut Diamond Brooch (rapier). Diamond Tw 3.40ct and single pearl. Gold 9k and Gold18k Tw 18.24g. $21,000
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C ONTRIBUTORS
Primordial Ponies
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Deadly Ponies’ Spring ‘24 collection, Primordial, delves into the concept that earth’s essential elements have existed since the dawn of time. This season draws inspiration from nature’s ancient wonders - envision rock formations evolving over millions of years, Palaeolithic cave art depicting animals and figures traced in the earth and on a micro scale, the view of plant cells under a microscope, offering a glimpse into the origin of all things. Adding a touch of whimsy, the Flintstones cartoon lends a playful reference to prehistoric life. Spring ‘24 sees Deadly Ponies’ sumptuous Calf Nappa return in neutral hues: rich mud brown and creamy-white milk, set against a pop of grass green. Their limited, bespoke capsules highlight animalistic textures, with croc-embossed Calf Nappa and cheetah velvet offering collectors a tactile touch.
1. Mr Cinch Mini – Grass 2. Mr D Rex – Emerald Croc 3. Mr Bandit Tote – Croc Embossed Calf Leather 4. Orion Micro – Basalt
It’s a matter of trust Trusts are a tricky beast. They have their place in money management, but regulatory changes have made them more complex, and it can be hard to navigate their esoteric nuances. Janet Xuccoa, of New Zealand Family Trusts Services, has written a new book, Trusts 123, aimed at helping people understand the complexities of trusts and reach a deeper understanding of what they involve. As she explains, incorrect practices and omissions can result in trusts losing their power, and trustees can be liable. If you don’t ensure the trust you are involved with retains its integrity, you could inadvertently fail to honour your trustee duties. The book covers topics including how trusts evolved, essential trust ingredients, trust benefits, ways to get assets into a trust, and things to consider when bringing a trust to an end. It also touches on writing a will. Xuccoa is the author of Family Trusts 101, Money Secrets 101 and Women and Money: Mastering the Struggle.
The book retails at $39 and is on sale from September 2.
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Future /ˈfjuːtʃə/
‘A period of time following the moment of speaking or writing; time regarded as still to come’ Merriam-Webster Dictionary
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QUOTE & DEFINITION
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." – Carlos Slim Helu, Mexican billionaire
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ESSENTIALS
Let’s Jump into Spring
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Fresh colour and vibrancy the key.
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1. Barebones railroad lantern in olive drab - www.everyday-needs.com, 2. Status Anxiety look both ways in khaki - www.statusanxiety.com.au, 3. LG cinebeam 4k smart portable laser projector - www.pbtech.co.nz, 4. Adairs taylor green & natural velvet cushion - www.adairs.co.nz, 5. nood caspian sofa bed in green - nood.co.nz, 6. Patricks Cleanse, Hydrate, Nourish, Protect Body Wash - superette.co.nz, 7. Wallace Cotton harris apron in olive - www.wallacecotton.com, 8. Martino Gamper hookalotti anodised finish - foundstore.co.nz, 9. Hommey vanilla bean stripe robe - superette.co.nz S P R I N G 2 0 2 4 | I N F O R M E D I NVESTO R 1 4
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Make it Count
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Resene Clover 12
Resene Allusive
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Resene Outrageous
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Resene Hashtag
Resene Half Gin Fizz
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Bright accents and cooling whites for hip home highlights.
10. Bonnie and Neil long door mat - www.smallacorns.co.nz, 11. Le Labo santal 33 - www.mecca.com, 12. Thames and Hudson salad freak - superette.co.nz, 13. Biroix cast iron dutch oven in green - www.biroix.co.nz, 14. Harland multi-NZ wool throw exquisitewooltraders.co.nz, 15. Holiday lunch box in caramel - www.shutthefrontdoor.co.nz, 16. Abel scene 03 100ml - foundstore.co.nz, 17. Citta Sisal oval basket - www.cittadesign.com, 18. Simon Lewis Wards jumbo jet orange wall art - www.thepoiroom.co.nz
resene.co.nz/colorshops
I N V E S T M E N T M E G AT R E N D S
Let the Mega Force be with You There are massive inexorable forces on the horizon set to reshape the global economy and, as Amy Hamilton Chadwick explains, it will pay investors to keep across all of them. Megatrends are transformative forces that change the way we live, work and spend – shaping economies, shifting policies, moving social attitudes and driving the allocation of capital. Megatrends should inform your investment and purchasing choices, whether you want to identify potential opportunities, avoid declining industries, or develop an exit strategy from longstanding holdings. Should you buy a petrol car or an EV? Should you switch your KiwiSaver to a more sustainable option? Where should you buy your next investment property? Every big investment decision should be made with one eye on the forces reshaping our world. Here we consider four of the global megatrends that will impact our lives over the decades ahead – artificial intelligence (AI), the ageing population, energy transition and the hybrid work model.
The rise of AI Whether you think it’s going to solve all our problems or take all our jobs, AI is one of the driving forces of modern commerce. AI has an incredible number of applications. It is already able to take massive quantities of data and extract value and insights from that data, easily and cheaply. This has meant forward leaps for data-driven sectors such as medicine and healthcare, research and innovation, forecasting and robotics. The rise of AI is likely to worsen inequality, according to a 2024 analysis published by the International Monetary Fund. However, researchers found that the enormous boost to productivity could increase income for all workers. Here in New Zealand, a 2024 study by Spark and the NZ Institute of Economic Research found that a 20 per cent uplift in adoption of AI and other advanced digital technologies could boost industry output by up to $26 billion over the next decade.
‘The rise of AI is likely to worsen inequality.’ S P R I N G 2 0 2 4 | I N F O R M E D I NVESTO R 1 7