December 2023
Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening. Great agents can explain what’s happening.
2024 Forecasts
2024 Home Price Forecasts Percent Appreciation/Depreciation as of 11/30/2023
4.1 2.8
2.6
2.2
1.5
1.9 0.7 -0.2
-1.7 Average of All 8
MBA
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
HPES
Goldman Sachs
NAR
Zillow
Realtor.com
2024 Total Home Sales Forecasts Combined Existing and New Home Sales as of 11/30/2023
5.1
Average of All 3
5.5
NAR
5.1
MBA
4.7
Fannie Mae
Mortgage Rates November 30, 2023
Mortgage Rates Drop for the Fifth Consecutive Week July 2023 – Today
7/6/2023
7/27/2023
8/17/2023
9/7/2023
9/28/2023
10/19/2023
7.22
11/9/2023
7.29
7.44
7.5
7.76
7.79
7.63
7.57
7.49
7.31
7.19
7.18
7.12
7.18
7.23
7.09
6.96
6.9
6.81
6.78
6.96
6.81
U.S. Weekly Averages as of 11/30/2023
11/30/2023
Source: Freddie Mac
Buyer Demand
Showing Traffic Above Pre-Pandemic Numbers Showing Index for September
153
103.7
2016
111.3
106.9
2017
2018
112.2
2019
2023 Source: ShowingTime
Despite mortgage rates reaching 23-year highs, low inventory levels are spurring surprisingly strong competition . . . Depleted inventory stocks are gradually recovering, and price appreciation is slowing, but demand has remained resilient, and attractive, appropriately priced listings are moving quickly. - Zillow, Latest Market Report, 11/13/2023
Buyers and sellers remain active in every economic environment, including when mortgage rates are high. Buyers determined to find a home they love will continue visiting homes with their agents, and as we mentioned previously, some sellers are reducing prices, which presents an opportunity for those buyers. - Mike Lane, Vice President, ShowingTime
Affordability
Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio (2000-2023) Assumes a 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage With a 20% Down Payment on a Median-Priced Home With a Median Income (P&I Payment to Income) 27.3% Today
30
24.7% July 2006
25
25%
26.5% Jun 2022 18.1%
20
June 2018
19.6%
15
Jan 2000
13.3% 10
11.6%
Jan 2021
Jan 2013
5
0 Source: NAR
Percent Change in Home Prices Since Quarter 1 1991, Quarter 3 2023
Source: FHFA
Average Number of Offers Received on the Most Recent Closed Sale Each October
3.4
2.1
2.0
2018
2019
2020
3.7
2021
2.4
2.5
2022
2023 Source: NAR
Median Days on the Market Less Than PreUnicorn Years Each October
68
64
64 51
50
50
2022
2023
43
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: Realtor.com
Inventory
Active Listing Count November of Each Year
1,227,700
1,272,566
1,142,966
754,846
2017
2018
2019
2023 Source: Realtor.com
New Listings Stabilizing Monthly Counts 2017
650,000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Realtor.com
New Listings Break the Norm Month-Over-Month Change, November of Each Year
17,366
-2,569
-31,628
-59,013
2017
-50,244
-53,466
2020
2021
-65,035
2018
2019
2022
2023 Source: Realtor.com
Change in Inventory Year-Over-Year, November 2023
Source: Realtor.com
Change in Inventory Month-Over-Month, November 2023
Source: Realtor.com
Listing Opportunities
Percent of Sellers Who Moved at Least 100 Miles (By Age) 47%
28%
18-34
45%
45%
65-74
75 or Older
32% 25%
35-44
45-54
55-64
Source: NAR’s 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Top 5 Reasons Why Sellers Sold Moved at Least 100 Miles
Want To Move Closer to Friends or Family
74%
Moving Due to Retirement
31%
Job Relocation
33%
Change in Family Situation (Marriage, Divorce)
12%
Neighborhood Became Less Desirable
12% Source: NAR’s 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Number of Weeks Sold Home Was on the Market Percent Distribution Median Weeks: 2 weeks 43%
15%
12% 7%
6%
3%
4%
3%
4%
2%
1%
*
Less 1 to 2 3 to 4 5 to 6 7 to 8 9 to 10 11 to 12 13 to 16 17 to 24 25 to 36 37 to 52 53 or Than Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks More 1 Week Weeks * Less than 1 Percent
Source: NAR’s 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Home Prices
Percent Change in Home Values Month-Over-Month Case-Shiller 0.5
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.3
Jul
Aug
Sep
0.6
-0.2
FHFA 0.1
CoreLogic
1.6 0.8
1.2
0.5
1.6 0.9
-0.2
Jan '23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Stabilizing at About 1 of 4 on Prices Falling Percent of Americans Who Think Prices Will Go Down over the Next 12 Months
37%
35% 31% 32% 28%
Jan 2023
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
26%
Jun
24%
Jul
26% 23% 23% 23%
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Source: Fannie Mae
~ 1 of 4 Still Believe Prices Will Depreciate
49-Year Average Monthly Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973-2022
0.86
0.88 0.79
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.25
0.25 0.15
0.12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
0.10
0.12
Nov
Dec
Source: Case-Shiller
49-Year Average vs. 2023 Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973-2022 and 2023
49-Year Average 2023
1.5
1.3
1.2 0.86
0.88
0.9 0.79
0.64
0.64 0.6 0.44 0.4
0.30
0.25 0.3
0.2 0.10
-0.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Source: Case-Shiller
2023 Year-End Home Price Forecasts 6.7% 6%
5.7%
5.5%
4.6% 3.3%
0.1% Average of All 6
Fannie Mae
AEI
MBA
Zillow
HPES
NAR
Vitally Important
90-Day Work Plan
▪ Price Adjustments on Yours ▪ Price Adjustments on Theirs ▪ FSBOs ▪ Prospect! Prospect! Prospect!
If your listing hasn’t sold in the last 60 days, MAYBE…
FSBOs & Expired Listings
THE
DEEP DIVE
Facebook Live Every Monday 11AM ET/8AM PT Keeping Current Matters Facebook Page
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
4
2024 Home Price Forecasts Graph
https://www.zillow.com/research/2024-housing-predictions33447/ https://www.realtor.com/research/2024-national-housingforecast/ https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1730642488346472 787 https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-andforecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-nov2023.pdf?sfvrsn=acef26ff_1 https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/ https://www.fanniemae.com/media/49661/display https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20231121economic-growth-remained-strong-in-q3
5
2024 Total Home Sales Forecasts Graph
https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-andforecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-nov2023.pdf?sfvrsn=acef26ff_1 https://www.fanniemae.com/media/49661/display
7
Mortgage Rates Drop Graph
https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/28016/pdf
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
9
Showing Traffic Graph
https://www.showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index/
10
Zillow Quote
https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2023-11-13-Buyer-demandhanging-tough,-despite-rates-and-seasonal-cooldown
11
Mike Lane Quote
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/september-2023showing-index-results/
13
Mortgage Payment to Income Graph
https://cdn.nar.realtor//sites/default/files/documents/hai-082023-housing-affordability-index-2023-10-13.pdf
14
Home Prices Map
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-PriceIndex-(HPI).aspx
15
Closed Sale Offers Graph
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2023-10realtors-confidence-index-11-21-2023.pdf
16
Median Days on the Market Graph
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
18
Active Listing Count Graph
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
19, 20
New Listings Graphs
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
21, 22
Inventory Maps
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
24, 25
NAR Sellers Graphs
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-andsellers
26
Weeks Home Was on the Market
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-andsellers
Percent Change Home Values Combo Graph
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/
28
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
29
1 of 4 Think Prices are Falling Graph
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/national-housing-survey/national-housing-surveyarchive
49-Year Average Graphs
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview
Year-End Home Price Forecasts Graph
https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ www.mba.org https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/housingfinance-watch-week-37-2023/ www.nar.realtor www.pulsenomics.com
31, 32
33
Updates
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
47
Confidence Index
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
48-50, 57, 59, 60, Existing Home Sales 67-70
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
51-53
New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
54
Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
55-56
Pending Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
61-63
Case Shiller
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
64
CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
66-72
Inventory
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
74
Showing Activity
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Mortgage Credit Availability
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
76, 77, 79, 80
78
82, 83
Home Sales
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
Average Days on the Market
October 2023 49
46 44 4141
38
36 36
29
26
24 27 36 33
29 27 26
24 2222
21212121 20 18
171717171717 1818 1919 18 19
1717 16 34
3131 29
26
24 22 23
2020
21
1818
16
1414
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Since January 2014 6,800,000
6,300,000
5,800,000
5,300,000
4,800,000
4,300,000
3,800,000
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
-13.9%
-14.6%
-14.6% -14.8%
-15.8%
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
January
February
2023
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: NAR
New Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 1060
960
860
760
660
560
460
360 jun-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Source: Census
New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
17%
10%
11%
7% 5%
*
*
0% Under $150K
$150-$199K
$200-299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
Over $750K Source: Census
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9
1.9
2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.4
2.8 2.9
3.2
3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
2.5
3.2
3.5 3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6
3.2
4.1 4.5
4.5
4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
5.1 4.9
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
Total Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
2023
676 646 567
604
593
587
557
524
436 423
577
575
574
557
528
517 475
443 422
631
491
495
477 454
432
421
404
397
419 384
372
374
325 286
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: Census
Pending Home Sales 140
130
120
110
100
100 = Historically Healthy Level 90
80
70
60January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
100 = Historically Healthy Level -6.5%
-7.1% -8.5% -10.3%
-10.8%
Source: NAR
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) Represented 2% of sales in October. 35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
4% 0% Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region 7.5%
4.2%
3.5% 3.4% 2.3%
U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range -0.6%
-7.1%
-13.0%
-13.5%
-12.3%
-23.1%
% change in sales
$0-100K -13.5%
$100-250K -23.1%
$250-500K -13.0%
$500-750K -12.3%
$750K-1M -7.1%
$1M+ -0.6% Source: NAR
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jun 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 21.1% 21.2%
20.5% 18.7%
16.0%
13.1%
10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6%
1.0% Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan 2023 Feb
1.6% 1.7% 1.5%
Mar
Apr
May
0.9% 0.6% June
July
0.4% 0.2% Aug
Sept
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price US Home Price Insights – September 2023
4.5%
2.6%
Current
Forecast Source: CoreLogic
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory Month-Over-Month, November 2023
Source: Realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
2.6 2.6
2.6
2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5 3.3 3.3 3.4
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.0 3.1
2.9 2.9
2.9
3.1 3.0
3.3
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0 4.0 3.9
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2
4.6
4.5
1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
2.5
3.0 3.8
3.8
4.0
3.0 3.1 3.1
3.5 3.6
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Since 2019 6.0
5.5
5.0
1.5
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels 30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels Last 12 Months
15.3%
15.3%
10.2%
5.4% 2.7% 1.0% Oct
-0.8%
Nov
Dec
Jan-23
Feb
Mar
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Apr
-5.7%
-6.1% -8.1%
-13.6%
-14.6%
-14.1%
Source: NAR
New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months
9.7
9.7
9.4 8.5 8.1
8.4
8.1 7.6 7.2
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
7.8
7.5
7.2
7.1
June
July
7.8
Aug
Sept
Oct
Source: Census
New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted 2022 2023
11.4 10.9
10.7 10.4
9.7
9.5 9.2 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.6
7.6 6.9
7.8
7.6
7.4
7
7.2
6.3 5.9 5.6
Jan
5.5
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Census
Buyer Demand
Home Showings Declined Compared to August Numbers, but Still Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, September 2023
Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time “Buyers and sellers remain active in every economic environment, including when mortgage rates are high. . . . Buyers determined to find a home they love will continue visiting homes with their agents, and as we mentioned previously, some sellers are reducing prices, which presents an opportunity for those buyers.” 9.1%
9.7%
5.5% 3.3% 0.7% U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: ShowingTime
Mortgage Rates
2.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 9/7/2023 10/5/2023 11/02/2023 11/30/2023
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 7.22%
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
2.0 1/7/2016 2/7/2016 3/7/2016 4/7/2016 5/7/2016 6/7/2016 7/7/2016 8/7/2016 9/7/2016 10/7/2016 11/7/2016 12/7/2016 1/7/2017 2/7/2017 3/7/2017 4/7/2017 5/7/2017 6/7/2017 7/7/2017 8/7/2017 9/7/2017 10/7/2017 11/7/2017 12/7/2017 1/7/2018 2/7/2018 3/7/2018 4/7/2018 5/7/2018 6/7/2018 7/7/2018 8/7/2018 9/7/2018 10/7/2018 11/7/2018 12/7/2018 1/7/2019 2/7/2019 3/7/2019 4/7/2019 5/7/2019 6/7/2019 7/7/2019 8/7/2019 9/7/2019 10/7/2019 11/7/2019 12/7/2019 1/7/2020 2/7/2020 3/7/2020 4/7/2020 5/7/2020 6/7/2020 7/7/2020 8/7/2020 9/7/2020 10/7/2020 11/7/2020 12/7/2020 1/7/2021 2/7/2021 3/7/2021 4/7/2021 5/7/2021 6/7/2021 7/7/2021 8/7/2021 9/7/2021 10/7/2021 11/7/2021 12/7/2021 1/7/2022 2/7/2022 3/7/2022 4/7/2022 5/7/2022 6/7/2022 7/7/2022 8/7/2022 9/7/2022 10/7/2022 11/7/2022 12/7/2022 1/7/2023 2/7/2023 3/7/2023 4/7/2023 5/7/2023 6/7/2023 7/7/2023 8/7/2023 9/7/2023 10/7/2023 11/7/2023
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 8.0
7.22%
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections December 2023
Quarter
Fannie Mae
MBA
NAR
Average of All Three
2023 Q4
7.70%
7.50%
7.80%
7.67%
2024 Q1
7.60%
7.10%
7.50%
7.40%
2024 Q2
7.40%
6.60%
6.90%
6.97%
2024 Q3
7.20%
6.30%
6.50%
6.67%
2.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/7 10/5 11/9
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate 8.0
7.5
7.0
7.1 6.6
6.0
6.3
5.0
4.0
Where Are They Going?
3.0
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual - Projected
7.5
2023
7
6.5
6
2024 5.5
5
2019
4.5
2022 4
2018
2020
3.5
2021 3
2.5 Rate
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.4
4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.9
5.3
5.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.0
7.5
7.1
6.6
6.3
6.1
Source: MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) October 2023 190 180
170 160 150 140 130
120 110 100 90 Apr 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: MBA
Lending Standards Still Under Control Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 900
Housing Bubble: 868.7
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
98.2 100
0 June 2004
June 2006
June 2008
June 2010
June 2012
June 2014
June 2016
June 2018
June 2020
June 2022
October 2023
Source: MBA