November 2023
Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening. Great agents can explain what’s happening.
I'd say whatever our forecast is, it has a wider range of error than it normally would have. Right, we’re just at a point in the housing market to where I don't think anyone really knows to tell you the truth. But, we can’t ignore that inventory remains down over 40% since pre-pandemic.
- Sean Dobson, CEO, Amherst
Home Prices
Case-Shiller: Prices Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted) 1.9 2 1.6
1.6 1.3
0.4
0.2
0.4 0.5
0.7 0.7 0.6
0.9
-0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
-0.3 -0.9 -0.8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun '22
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun '23
Jul Aug
FHFA: Prices Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted) 1.9 1.6
1.5 1.6 1.2
0.5 0.1
0.1 0
0.6 0.7 0.7
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.1 -0.1
-0.3
-0.6 -0.7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun '22
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun '23
Jul Aug
Percent Change in Home Values Month-Over-Month 1.6
1.9
2
1.6
1.3
Case-Shiller
0.4
0.2 -0.2
-0.3 -0.9
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.6
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0 -0.1
3.3 1.4
2.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
0.5
0.8
0.6 -0.3
0.7
0.7
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
-0.3
CoreLogic
1.8
0.6
0.7
-0.2
FHFA -0.6
0.5
-0.8
1.2 0.1
2.2
-0.3
0.7
0.4
-0.4
1.6
-0.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug '22 '23
Case-Shiller Home Price Movement August 2023, Month-Over-Month Percent Appreciation in Top 20 Cities U.S. National: 0.9%
Metro
% Change
Metro
% Change
Atlanta
1.0%
Miami
1.2%
Boston
1.0%
Minneapolis
0.4%
Charlotte
0.9%
New York
0.9%
Chicago
0.4%
Phoenix
0.7%
Cleveland
0.0%
Portland
0.3%
Dallas
0.3%
San Diego
1.7%
Denver
1.0%
San Francisco
0.7%
Detroit
1.1%
Seattle
1.5%
Las Vegas
1.1%
Tampa
0.6%
Los Angeles
1.2%
Washington, D.C.
0.5%
FHFA Month-Over-Month Price Change August 2023 by Region National Rate of Appreciation: 0.6%
1.1%
1.1% 1.0%
1.0%
0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
-0.2%
Pacific
Mountain
West North Central
West South Central
East North Central
East South New England Central
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
For the second month in a row, home price growth trended higher in every one of the 50 largest U.S. markets, mirroring the sharp reacceleration at the national level.
- Black Knight, Mortgage Monitor, October 2023
Nevertheless, home prices are still expected to reaccelerate and reach mid-single-digit growth rate by the end of the year, according to CoreLogic’s latest HPI forecast.
- Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic
Future Home Prices
49-Year Average Monthly Price Movement NSA Month-Over-Month 1973-2022
0.86
0.88 0.79
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.25
0.25 0.15
0.12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
0.10
0.12
Nov
Dec
Source: Case-Shiller
49-Year Average vs. 2023 Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973-2022 and 2023
49-Year Average 2023
1.5 1.3 1.2 0.86
0.88
0.9 0.79
0.64
0.64
0.6 0.44
0.4
0.30 0.2 0.10
-0.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Source: Case-Shiller
Affordability
Monthly Mortgage Payments
$2,234
$2,171
$2,166
$2,032
$1,957
$1,943
$1,830
$1,819
$1,869
$1,993
$2,043
$1,905
$1,770
$1,839
$1,933
$1,847
$1,515
$1,384
$1,297
$1,256
$1,250
$1,242
$1,212
$1,224
$1,224
$1,253
$1,205
$1,184
$1,138
$1,044
$1,011
$1,735
January 2021 - August 2023
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 2021 2022 2023
Source: NAR
Some Historical Perspective on Today’s Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate 8
2023 7
2022 6
2018 5
2016 2017
4
2019 3
2021 2020
2 January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates Annual Average 30-Year Fixed Rate 8.0%
November 5, 2023: 7.38% 7.0%
6.0%
5.34%
5.0%
4.54%
4.0%
3.65%
3.99%
3.94%
3.0%
3.11%
2.96%
2020
2021
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2022 Source: Freddie Mac
Current Mortgage Rate Compared to the Last Five Decades 14.0%
12.70% 12.0%
10.0%
8.86% 8.12% 8.0%
November 5, 2023: 7.38% 6.27% 6.0%
4.09% 4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s Source: Freddie Mac
Planning To Buy a Home in the Next 12 Months Prospective Home Buyers (Percent of Respondents) 20%
18%
17% 16%
14%
12%
10%
8% Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Q4 2019
Q1 2020
Q2 2020
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Source: Housing Trends Report (NAHB)
Can Multigenerational Living Be an Answer?
Most Multi-Gen Occupants See Positives Percent Who Find Living with Adult Family Members To Be _____ Most of the Time
58%
54%
23%
Convenient
Rewarding
Stressful Source: Pew Research
The circumstances over the past few years — between the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic — have changed the way families are buying homes. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, multi-generational buying rose to an all-time high in 2022: 14 percent. Compare that to 2021, when this option was at 11 percent. - Triangle Business Journal
Multigenerational living has increased among all age groups over the past five decades. But the increase has been fastest among adults ages 25 to 34.
- Richard Fry, Analyst, Pew Research
. . . builders are now developing multigenerational floor plans that include designs with two master suites, including main floor suites with kitchenettes. Many offer shared spaces for gathering as the extended family while also providing additional privacy when it’s needed most. . . . Some include flex space that can shift from a family office to a nursery to give you the ability to adapt. Some include detached casita living options for even more privacy for your family. - Triangle Business Journal
Federal Housing Administration Expands Access to Mortgage Financing for Homes That Have or Will Include Accessory Dwelling Units
In a significant policy change, Fannie Mae has announced that . . . it will accept 5% down payments for owner-occupied 2-, 3-, and 4-unit homes. This marks a departure from the previous multifamily financing requirement of 15-25% down.
- Aleksandra Kadzielawski, Senior Editor, The Mortgage Reports
If you’re interested in multigenerational housing for your next move, you may want to consider talking to a trusted agent and a local lending company to find out how combined finances can help you get the right home for your needs.
- Triangle Business Journal
National policymakers, local leaders and lending institutions hold the power not only to protect the recent strides made by Latino households, but also to accelerate progress and bolster our national economy.
- Sarah Rosen Wartell and Janet Murguia, Bloomberg News
The private sector can expand access to credit by boosting language access in the mortgage and credit markets, improving underwriting of self-employed borrowers and lending more to multigenerational households.
- Sarah Rosen Wartell and Janet Murguia, Bloomberg News
Owning a Home Is “Very Important” Results from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey
72%
Hispanic
67%
Black General Population White
59% 55% Source: Fannie Mae
Net Worth
The Gap in Net Worth Is Widening Homeowner
Renter
$396,200
$255,000 $246,200 $187,000
$201,500
$385,800
$181,600
$5,400
$5,500
$5,300
$6,300
$10,400
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022 Source: The Fed
Home Equity Helps Foster New Businesses Equity Available for Homeowners To Access Before Hitting a Maximum of 80% Combined LTV and New Small Business Applications 10000
5,500
Tappable Equity in Billions U.S. Small Business Applications in Thousands
5,000
9000
4,500
8000
4,000 7000 3,500
6000 3,000
5000 2,500
4000
2,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Black Knight, Commerce Institute
▪ Explain where home prices are and where they’re headed
90-Day Work Plan
▪ Get the word out on Net Worth and offer a P.E.A.R.
▪ Become more familiar with the Multi-Generational opportunity ▪ Become more familiar with the KCM offerings in Spanish ▪ “Avoid the Noise” and get back to helping people
▪ Prospect! Prospect! Prospect!
THE
DEEP DIVE
Facebook Live Every Monday 11AM ET/8AM PT Keeping Current Matters Facebook Page
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
3
Sean Dobson Quote
https://www.resiclubanalytics.com
5
Case-Shiller Prices Graph
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
6
FHFA Prices Graph
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
7
3 Home Value Sources Graph
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/
8
Case-Shiller Price Movement Table
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indexannouncements/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-indexcontinues-to-trend-upward-in-august/
9
FHFA M-O-M Price Change Graph
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
10
Black Knight Quote
https://www.blackknightinc.com/wpcontent/uploads/2023/09/ICE_MM_OCT2023_Report.pdf
11
Selma Hepp Quote
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/realestate/housing-market-predictions/
13-14
49-Year Graphs
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview
16
Monthly Mortgage Payments Graph
https://cdn.nar.realtor//sites/default/files/documents/hai-082023-housing-affordability-index-2023-10-13.pdf
17-19
Mortgage Rate Graphs
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/25601/pdf
20
Planning To Buy Graph
https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/10/housing-demand-caughtbetween-high-rates-demographics/
Multi-Gen Graph
https://www.pewresearch.org/socialtrends/2022/03/24/financial-issues-top-the-list-of-reasons-us-adults-live-in-multigenerational-homes/
22
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
23, 25, 28
Triangle Business Journal Quotes
https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2023/04/01/whychoose-multigenerational-living-in-the-triangl.html
24
Richard Fry Quote
https://nypost.com/2023/03/23/why-millennials-are-beggingtheir-parents-to-move-in/
26
HUD Headline
https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisori es/HUD_No_23_237
27
Aleksandra Kadzielawski Quote
https://themortgagereports.com/107690/fannie-maeintroduces-5-down-payment-option-for-multifamily-homes
29
Bloomberg Headline
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/forthe-us-housing-market-boosting-latino-homeownership-iskey
30-31
Wartell and Murguia Quotes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/forthe-us-housing-market-boosting-latino-homeownership-iskey
32
Owning a Home Important Graph
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/47726/display
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
34
Net Worth Widening Graph
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf
Home Equity Graph
https://www.blackknightinc.com/wpcontent/uploads/2023/02/BKI_MM_Dec2022_Report.pdf https://www.commerceinstitute.com/new-businessesstarted-every-year/
35
Updates
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
46
Confidence Index
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
47-49, 56, 58, 59, Existing Home Sales 66-69
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
50-52
New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
53
Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
54-55
Pending Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
60-62
Case Shiller
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
63
CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
65-71
Inventory
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
73
Showing Activity
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Mortgage Credit Availability
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
75, 76, 78, 78
77
81, 82
Home Sales
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
Average Days on the Market
September 2023 49
46 44 4141
38
36 36
29
26
24 27 36 33
29 27 26
24 2222
21212121 20 18
171717171717 1818 1919 18 19
1717 16 34
3131 29
26
24 22 2020
21
1818
16
1414
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Since January 2014 6,800,000
6,300,000
5,800,000
5,300,000
4,800,000
4,300,000
3,800,000
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
-15.8% -18.9% -21.1%
-20.2% -22.8%
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
January
February
2023
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: NAR
New Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 1060
960
860
760
660
560
460
360 jun-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Source: Census
New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
17%
15% 11%
10%
7%
* 0% Under $150K
1% $150-$199K
$200-299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
Over $750K Source: Census
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9
1.9
2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4
2.4
2.8 2.9
3.2
3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
2.5
3.2
3.5 3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6
3.2
4.1 4.5
4.5
4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
5.1 4.9
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
Total Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
2023
676 646 567
604
593
587
557
524
436 423
577
575
574
557
528
517 475
443 422
631
494
495
477
455 431
421
407
393
419 372
374
325 286
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: Census
Pending Home Sales 140
130
120
110
100
100 = Historically Healthy Level 90
80
70
60January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
100 = Historically Healthy Level
-9.2%
-10.7%
-11.0%
-12.7%
-12.9% Source: NAR
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) Represented 1% of Sales in September. 35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
4% 0% Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region
5.2% 4.7%
3.1% 2.8%
1.8%
U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range -0.6%
-7.1%
-13.0%
-13.5%
-12.3%
-23.1%
% change in sales
$0-100K -13.5%
$100-250K -23.1%
$250-500K -13.0%
$500-750K -12.3%
$750K-1M -7.1%
$1M+ -0.6% Source: NAR
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jun 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 21.1% 21.2%
20.5% 18.7%
16.0%
13.1%
10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6%
1.0% Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan 2023 Feb
1.6% 1.7% 1.5%
Mar
Apr
May
0.9% 0.6% 0.4% June
July August
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price US Home Price Insights – August 2023
3.7%
3.4%
Current
Forecast Source: CoreLogic
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory Month-Over-Month, October 2023
Source: Realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
2.6 2.6
2.6
2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5 3.3 3.3 3.4
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.0 3.1
2.9 2.9
2.9
3.1 3.0
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0 4.0 3.9
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2
4.6
4.5
1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
2.5
3.0 3.8
3.8
4.0
3.0 3.1 3.1
3.5 3.6
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Since 2019 6.0
5.5
5.0
1.5
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels 30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels Last 12 Months
15.3%
15.3%
10.2%
5.4% 2.7% 1.0% Sept
Oct
-0.8%
-0.8%
Nov
Dec
Jan-23
Feb
Mar
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Apr
-6.1% -8.1%
-13.6%
-14.6%
-14.1%
Source: NAR
New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months
9.7
9.7
9.4
8.7
8.5 8.1
8.4
8.1
8.0 7.6 7.2
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
7.5 7.0
June
July
Aug
Source: Census
New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted 2022 2023
11.4 10.9
10.7 10.4
9.7
9.5 9.2
8.2 7.9 7.6
7.6 6.9
7.6
7.4
7.3
7.1
7
6.3 5.9 5.6
Jan
5.5
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Census
Buyer Demand
Home Showings Declined in August, but Still Remain Elevated Compared to Pre-Pandemic Levels Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, August 2023
Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time “Real estate is seasonal, as indicated by the data we’re seeing in the August Showing Index . . . We’ve noticed sellers and their agents reducing list prices more often than we’ve seen since last November, which could create an opportunity this fall for buyers not scared away by higher mortgage rates.” 13.0% 8.0%
7.9% 3.4%% West
U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
-8.1% Source: ShowingTime
Mortgage Rates
2.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 9/7/2023 10/5/2023 11/02/2023
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 8.0
7.76%
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
2.0 1/7/2016 2/7/2016 3/7/2016 4/7/2016 5/7/2016 6/7/2016 7/7/2016 8/7/2016 9/7/2016 10/7/2016 11/7/2016 12/7/2016 1/7/2017 2/7/2017 3/7/2017 4/7/2017 5/7/2017 6/7/2017 7/7/2017 8/7/2017 9/7/2017 10/7/2017 11/7/2017 12/7/2017 1/7/2018 2/7/2018 3/7/2018 4/7/2018 5/7/2018 6/7/2018 7/7/2018 8/7/2018 9/7/2018 10/7/2018 11/7/2018 12/7/2018 1/7/2019 2/7/2019 3/7/2019 4/7/2019 5/7/2019 6/7/2019 7/7/2019 8/7/2019 9/7/2019 10/7/2019 11/7/2019 12/7/2019 1/7/2020 2/7/2020 3/7/2020 4/7/2020 5/7/2020 6/7/2020 7/7/2020 8/7/2020 9/7/2020 10/7/2020 11/7/2020 12/7/2020 1/7/2021 2/7/2021 3/7/2021 4/7/2021 5/7/2021 6/7/2021 7/7/2021 8/7/2021 9/7/2021 10/7/2021 11/7/2021 12/7/2021 1/7/2022 2/7/2022 3/7/2022 4/7/2022 5/7/2022 6/7/2022 7/7/2022 8/7/2022 9/7/2022 10/7/2022 11/7/2022 12/7/2022 1/7/2023 2/7/2023 3/7/2023 4/7/2023 5/7/2023 6/7/2023 7/7/2023 8/7/2023 9/7/2023 10/7/2023
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 8.0
7.76%
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections November 2023
Quarter
Fannie Mae
MBA
NAR
Average of All Three
2023 Q4
7.30%
7.20%
7.80%
7.43%
2024 Q1
7.10%
6.80%
7.50%
7.13%
2024 Q2
7.00%
6.60%
6.90%
6.83%
2024 Q3
6.90%
6.30%
6.50%
6.57%
2.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/7 10/5
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate 8.0
7.0
7.2 6.8
4.0
2023 Q4 2024 Q1
6.6
6.0
6.3
5.0
Where Are They Going?
3.0
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual - Projected
7.5
2023
7
6.5
6
2024 5.5
5
2019
4.5
2022 4
2018
2020
3.5
2021 3
2.5 Rate
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.4
4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.9
5.3
5.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.0
7.2
6.8
6.6
6.3
6.1
Source: MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) September 2023 190 180
170 160 150 140 130
120 110 100 90 Apr 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: MBA
Lending Standards Still Under Control Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 900
Housing Bubble: 868.7
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
97.2 100
0 June 2004
June 2006
June 2008
June 2010
June 2012
June 2014
June 2016
June 2018
June 2020
June 2022
September 2023
Source: MBA