JANUARY 2021
“Market data has always been a powerful tool for real estate, but 2020 marked a new high point for how data was leveraged to encourage informed decisions and to help real estate professionals reinforce their status as market experts…”
ShowingTime
Positive Takeaways from 2020
6.6%
2008
2001
3.5% 1991
1981
6.1%
1980
-1.9%
HOME PRICE CHANGE
During Last 5 Recessions -19.7% March 2020
CoreLogic National Home Price Index
7.3%
2020
6.6%
2008
2001
3.5% 1991
-3%
1981
6.1%
1980
HOME PRICE CHANGE
During Last 6 Recessions -19.7% CoreLogic National Home Price Index
THE GROWTH OF HOME EQUITY
“Over the past year, strong home price growth has created a record level of home equity for homeowners. The average family with a home mortgage loan had $194,000 in home equity in the third quarter. This provides an important buffer to protect families if they experience financial difficulties and is one reason for the generational-low in foreclosure rates.� Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist at CoreLogic
American Home Equity Skyrockets
$17,000
$194,000
38.2%
10.8%
average gain in equity of mortgaged homes
of all homes are owned ‘free and clear’
current average equity of mortgaged homes
increase in equity totaling over $1 trillion American Community Survey, CoreLogic
YOY Equity Gains
CoreLogic
“The housing market has remained a strong pillar in an otherwise tumultuous economic year. A sharp rise in demand, spurred by record-low interest rates, continues to bolster homeowner equity. And with many people now spending more time than ever before at home, some homeowners have tapped into their strengthening equity to fund renovations.� Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic
$54,221 $300,000
$313,200
potential growth in household wealth over the next five years based solely on increased home equity if you purchase a $300K home in January 2021
$324,162
$333,887
$343,903
$354,221
Based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Home Price Expectation Survey 2020 4Q
WHATS AHEAD IN 2021…
“The surge in the work-from-home population has rewritten the playbook for many homebuying and rental decisions, from when and where to relocate, to what people are looking for in their next residence‌â€?
David Mele
President at Homes.com
“Despite the best intentions of home builders to provide more housing supply, the big short in housing supply will continue into 2021 and likely keep house price appreciation flying high.� Mark Fleming
Chief Economist at First American
6%
6%
2021
5.7% 4.1%
Home Price Forecasts 2.6%
NAR
Zelman
realtor.com
CoreLogic
Freddie Mac
2.1%
Fannie Mae
2%
MBA
“The bright spot for buyers is that more homes are likely to become available in the last six months of 2021. That should give folks more options to choose from and take away some of their urgency. With a larger selection, buyers may not be forced to make a decision in mere hours and will have more time to make up their minds‌â€? realtor.com
THE ECONOMY
More Depth, Less Length -2 -3
Before
Start
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
-4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14
Great Recession 2006-2016 WSJ Survey of Economists The Fed Actual
-15
Years for unemployment rate to return to near pre-crisis level
Unemployment Projections WSJ Economists Survey Fed Projections
6.7% 5.6%
Current
2021
5%
4.8%
4.2%
2022
4.4% 3.7%
2023
BLS, Fed, & WSJ Survey of Economists Projections
“Renters are disproportionately hurt by the crisis… A greater share of renters lost their jobs. That meant losing savings that could have been used for a down payment, and falling behind on bills, which will hurt their credit and make it even more difficult for them to be future homeowners.”
Jung Hyun Choi
Research Associate with the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute
For each of the following possible post-forbearance outcomes, what percentage of these 2.7 million homeowners do you estimate will...
18%
Receive a foreclosure notice within 1 year of exiting forbearance
(486K)
24%
List their home within 1 year of exiting forbearance
58%
Resume their mortgage payments and stay in their home for at least 1 year
(1.57M)
(648K)
Home Price Expectation Survey 2020 4Q
“Treasury rates have really been moving up since the election, but mortgage rates have kept going down... We’re going to start to see mortgage rates drift up with Treasury rates, as opposed to moving in the opposite direction.” Michael Fratantoni Chief Economist at MBA
Date
Mortgage
Interest Rate
P&I*
Today
$300,000
2.7%
$1,216.79
2021 4Q
$317,100**
3.4%**
$1,406
Difference in Monthly Payment The difference in the life of the loan (30 Yrs.) *Principal and Interest Payment
$189.21 $68,115.60
** 2021 Mortgage Rate and Home Price increase of 5.7% forecasted by realtor.com
“I do believe that the American dream of homeownership is very strong. It's very much alive from all of the survey data that I've seen. If you're not a homeowner, you want to be one in the future, whether that's a shortterm or a long-term goal.� Jessica Lautz
VP of Demographics and Behavioral Insights at NAR
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
2
ShowingTime Quote
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/positive-takeaways-from2020/?utm_source=feedotter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=blog_digest&utm_conten t=httpswwwshowingtimecomblogpositivetakeawaysfrom2020
4-5
Price Change During Recessions
https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/03/housing-recessions-and-recoveries.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/news/gaining-momentum-annual-u.s.-home-prices-appreciated7.3-in-october-corelogic-reports.aspx
7
Nothaft Quote
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/homeowner-equity-report.aspx
8
American Home Equity Skyrockets
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/homeowner-equity-report.aspx https://data.census.gov/cedsci/all?q=mortgage
9-10
YOY Equity Gains Map, Martell Quote
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/homeowner-equity-report.aspx
11
Potential Growth in Wealth
https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
13
Mele Quote
https://atlantaagentmagazine.com/2020/12/10/remote-workers-could-continue-to-drive-thepost-pandemic-market/
14
Fleming Quote
https://blog.firstam.com/economics/why-the-big-short-in-housing-supply-will-remain-in-2021
Resources
Slide
Slide Title
Link
15
2021 Home Price Forecasts
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx nar.realtor www.mba.org www.freddiemac.com www.fanniemae.com https://news.move.com/2020-12-02-Realtor-com-R-2021-Housing-Forecast-Sellers-Will-Get-Top-DollarAs-Buyers-Struggle-with-Affordability http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2020-12-18-Home-Value-Growth-Breaks-Records-as-Rents-Stabilize https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/top-economic-and-housing-experts-predict-post-pandemicrebound-with-continued-job-growth-stable https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-predictions-2021/
16
realtor.com Quote
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/housing-market-2021-forecast/
More Depth, Less Length
www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506 www.wsj.com (subscription required) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
19
Unemployment Projections
https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506 https://www.wsj.com/graphics/econsurvey/ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://twitter.com/Neil_Irwin/status/1339284909580574720
20
Choi Quote
https://time.com/5917894/evictions-housing-market-covid/
21
Post-Forbearance Outcomes
https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
22
Fratantoni Quote
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/why-rates-are-still-falling-despite-improving-economy/
23
Difference in Monthly Payment
http://www.freddiemac.com/fmac-resources/research/pdf/202010-Forecast-03.pdf https://news.move.com/2020-12-02-Realtor-com-R-2021-Housing-Forecast-Sellers-Will-Get-Top-DollarAs-Buyers-Struggle-with-Affordabilityhttps://www.mortgagecalculator.net/
24
Lautz Quote
https://dsnews.com/news/12-10-2020/the-american-dream-of-homeownership-is-very-much-alive
18
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
31, 51, 63
Confidence Index
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/realtors-confidenceindex
32-34, 42, 5156
Existing Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
35-38
New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
39
Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
40,41
Pending Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-homesales
46-48
Case Shiller
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-20city-composite-home-price-nsa-index/#news-research
49
CoreLogic Forecasted YOY % Change in Price
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
52-58
Inventory
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
60-62
Foot Traffic
http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic
65,66, 68,69
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
67
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-insights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-andeconomics/forecasts-and-commentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
71,72
Mortgage Credit Availability
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/singlefamily-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
73-77
Days To Close, FICO Scores, DTI
http://www.elliemae.com/resources/origination-insight-reports
Average Days on the Market
NAR
EXISTING Home Sales
Since January 2014 Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020 NAR
EXISTING Home Sales Y-O-Y by region
27.3%
25.8%
25.9%
25.7%
24.2%
U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West NAR
Existing Home Sales in thousands
January
February
March
April
May
June
2018
July
2019
August
September October November December
2020 Census & NAR
New Home Sales in thousands
January
February
March
April
May
June
2018
July
2019
August
2020
September October
November December
Census & NAR
New Home Sales annualized in thousands
jun-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan 2020
Census
New Home Sales 37%
% of sales by price range
27%
14%
2% Under $150K
12%
5% $150-$199K
5% $200-299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
Over $750K Census
New Homes Selling Fast (median months from completion to sold)
4.5 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.6 3.6 3.4
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.2 3.2
3.1
3.2
2.9 2.9
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1
3.0
4.1
3.6
3.5
3.4
4.3
3.2
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.7
Jan-18 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan-19 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
sep
Oct
Nov
Dec 20-Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Census
Nov
Total Home Sales in thousands 682 641 598
594 586
595
589 551
520
506
468 475 376
368
426
398
649
640
517 454
436
483
334
January
February
March
April
May
June 2019
July
August
September October November December
2020 Census & NAR
PENDING Home Sales since 2014
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year By Region 21.3%
16.4%
15.3%
14.1% 10.4%
U.S
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
NAR
35%
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in November
4%
January 2012 - Today Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
1% Jan 2020
NAR
Home Prices
EXISTING Home Prices Y-O-Y by region
17.4% 14.6%
U.S.
14.6%
Northeast
Midwest
15.0%
South
13.8%
West NAR
% Change in Sales from last year by Price Range
84.9%
88.1%
64.9% 37.3% 1.1% -21.7%
%
$0-100K -21.7%
$100-250K 1.1%
$250-500K 37.3%
$500-750K 64.9%
$750K-1M 84.9%
$1M+ 88.1% NAR
Case Shiller
Year-Over-Year
PRICE
CHANGES
Jun 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
S&P Case Shiller
Jan 2014 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Ago Sept Oct
Case Shiller Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite
S&P Case Shiller
Case Shiller
7.9%
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite
6.6%
5.3%
3.9% 4.0% 3.5% 2.6%
2.8%
4.1% 3.6% 3.5%
3.1%
2.2%
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2020
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct S&P Case Shiller
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price 8.2%
2.5%
Current
Forecast CoreLogic
HOUSING INVENTORY
Seller Traffic Index
NAR
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE 2011 - Today
Januar y 2011
Januar y 2012
Januar y 2013
Januar y 2014
Januar y 2015
Januar y 2016
Januar y 2017
Januar y 2018
Januar y 2019
Januar y 2020
NAR
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE last 2 years
4.2
4.3 4.3 4.3
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.3 4.3
4.2
4.0
4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6
4.8
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0 2.7 2.5
N ov
O ct
ep t S
ug A
Ju l
Ju n
ay M
pr A
ar M
Fe b
20 Ja n-
D ec
N ov
O ct
ep t S
ug A
Ju ly
Ju ne
ay M
pr A
ar M
Fe b
19
D ec
N ov
O ct
ep S
ug A
Ju l
Ju n
Ja n-
M
ay -1 8
2.3
NAR
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE Last 12 Months
4.8
4.0
3.9
3.7 3.4 3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov NAR
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
% 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2
NAR
HOUSING SUPPLY
Year-Over-Year
Dec
Jan 2020
-9.0%
Feb
Mar
-9.8%
-10.20%
-11.3%
Last 12 Months
Apr
-19.70%
May
-18.8%
June
Jul
-18.2%
Aug
-18.6% -21.1%
Sept
-19.2%
Oct
Nov
-19.8% -22.0%
NAR
New Home Inventory months supply
Last 12 Months 6.8 6.5
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.0 4.3
4.1 3.6
Dec
20-Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
3.5
3.5
Aug
Sept
3.6 Oct Census
New Home Inventory months supply
2019 6.8
6.5
2020
6.7
6.5 6.1
6.1 5.9
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.6
5.5 5.3
5.0
5.3
5.3
5.0
4.3 4.1 3.6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
3.5 Aug
3.5 Sept
3.6
Oct
Nov
Dec Census
BUYER DEMAND
Foot Traffic indicator of future sales
Jul 2013 Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan-20 NAR
Foot Traffic Last 12 Months Indicator of future sales
60.9
47.3
46.5 41.8
40.7
35.6
39.8
32.9 29.4
13.5 6.8 1.8 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct NAR
Foot Traffic indicator of future sales
2019 2020
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December NAR
Buyer Traffic Index
NAR
INTEREST RATES
1/7
12/3
11/5
10/1
9/3
8/6
7/2
6/4
5/7
4/2
3/5
2/6
1/2
12/5
11/7
10/3
9/5
8/1
7/3
6/6
5/2
4/4
3/7
1/31
1/3
12/6
11/1
10/4
9/6
8/2
7/5
6/7
5/3
4/5
3/1
2/1
1/4
Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
3.95%
2.65%
Freddie Mac
1/7
11/5 12/3
8/6 9/3 10/1
5/7 6/4 7/2
2/6 3/5 4/2
11/7 12/5 1/2/2020
9/5 10/3
6/6 7/3 8/1
3/7 4/4 5/2
12/6 1/3/2019 1/31
9/6 10/4 11/1
6/7 7/5 8/2
4/5 5/4
1/5/2017 2/2 3/2 3/30 4/27 5/25 6/22 7/20 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7 1/4/2018 2/1 3/1
10/6 11/3 12/1
7/7 8/4 9/1
4/7 5/5 6/2
1/7/16 2/4 3/3
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac
3.97%
2.65%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter
Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae
MBA
NAR
Average of All Four
2021 1Q
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.87%
2021 2Q
3.0
2.7
3.0
3.0
2.92%
2021 3Q
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.1
3.02%
2021 4Q
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.05%
Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
2019
2018
- Actual - Projected
2017 2020
2016
2021 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Rate 3.7
3.6
3.5
3.8
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.4
4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
30-Year Fixed Rate
Where Are They Going?
1/4 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/3 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 1/2 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7
January 2018 – Today Actual Interest Rates
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
2021 Q3
2021 Q4
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Credit Availability YES
NO
MAYBE
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association Apr 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
MBA
900
800
Historic Data for the
700
MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX
600
500
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association) 400
300
200
100
0
Jun e 200 4
Jun e 200 5 Jun e 200 6
Jun e 200 7
Jun e 200 8
Jun e 200 9
Jun e 201 0
Jun e 201 1
Jun e 201 2
Jun e 201 3
Jun e 201 4
Jun e 201 5
Jun e 201 6
Jun e 201 7
Jun e 201 8
Jun e 201 9
Jun e 202 0
No vembe r
MBA
Average Days To Close A Loan
54 55
Last 12 Months
48 48 45
43 40
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
47 47
49
51
42
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
® FICO
Score Requirements
Last 12 months
752 753 753 752 751 750 749 750
735
Dec
738 738
Jan
Feb
742
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
® FICO
37.45%
Score
Distribution
23.16% 17.11%
16.38%
5.68% 0.01%
0.21%
500-549
550-599
600-649
46.17%
650-699
700-749
750-799
800+
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average 752
758
® FICO
Score
for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
724 683
All Loans
Conventional
FHA
VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Average Back End DTI for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
44 35
35
All Loans*
Conventional
FHA
41
VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae