Houlihan Lawrence Commercial First Half 2026 Fairfield County

Executive Summary

FIRST HALF 2026

Fairfield County continues to enjoy healthy economic activity, reflecting trends that are consistent with the broad economy; robust in the aggregate, yet showing strains in certain market segments. Fairfield’s unemployment rate weakened slightly from a low level, hovering now around 4% which is slightly better than the national average. Finance, technology and, healthcare, remain the engines of the local economy. Fairfield County has also led the state in a tourism rebound, with hotel occupancy and revenue per available room experiencing significant gains and helping support employment in the region.

Across geographies, consumers have been pressured by high oil and energy prices. A momentary relief was felt as conflict in the Middle East appeared on the path of resolution. Renewed hostilities during the second week of July have triggered a reversal in oil price declines, and the threat of escalating inflationary pressure has re-emerged. Fairfield consumers have been resilient up to now, and spending continued to increase during the first half of 2026.

Fairfield County’s appeal to consumers and households is evidenced by the activity in the housing market. The county median sale was close to $750,000 marking an increase of over 8% on a year-over-year basis. High-demand municipalities like Darien saw median prices soar to over $3.0 million. Mixed used projects across the County are seeking to address housing needs and provide accompanying retail where consumers and households can satisfy essential shopping needs. In retail, smaller, niche formats are having the greatest success. In the office sector, large users continue to right-size, emphasizing customized design space productivity and employee satisfaction. Overall, there is an inventory recalibration, impacting retail and office properties and real estate investors and developers are focused on addressing changing consumer, households and business needs.

Darien, CT is one of the towns experiencing a dramatic transformation. Phase two of the large Corbin District redevelopment has just been finalized and is having a transformational impact. The development encompasses eleven new buildings, 78 luxury apartments, and over 100,000 square feet of office space. It is anchored by McKinsey & Company and successful retailers such as Tuckernuck and Nantucket-Millie’s. Other examples of mixed-use development in transit-oriented locations are The Crossings at Fairfield Metro and Unquowa Road Development. The former, which is the largest of the two, combines a 118-room hotel alongside 40,000 sf of retail and 357 apartments. Unquowa Road includes 50 residential units with two retail spaces underneath.

Fairfield’s skilled labor force continues to attract technology companies. The military drone manufacturer Quantum Cyber N.V. is moving to its newly acquired facility at 38 Union Ave. a day after it closed on the purchase of Arcade Technology (dba Arcade Metal Stamping) assets and its buildings for $320 million. The company will transition the facility from a tool die maker to a military drone manufacturing site and will add at least 50 employees.

Looking ahead at policy changes that may affect CRE, we are following the path of Connecticut’s Senate Bill 363 (2026) that contemplates allowing municipalities to establish special districts to impose a commercial vacancy assessment. This proposed tax targets unoccupied or unused commercial properties, charging up to $5 per square foot for spaces vacant for 180 consecutive or cumulative days. This Bill proposal is being closely watched by commercial real estate owners and has motivated many landlords across the State to show increased price flexibility and secure stable tenants.

Greenwich Offices – Sizable Departure Impacts the Market

This is one of the best office markets in the country give the niche nature of the office space and the financial health of the tenant base. However, after more than one year of favorable supply-demand fundamentals, Greenwich experienced a large block of offices returned to Ownership. These will have to be re-tenanted in the coming months. Leasing activity during the quarter was close to the average of the last three years and pricing remained stable.

Executive Summary

FIRST HALF 2026

Greenwich Retail – More Affordable Prices Yield Occupancy Gains

Greenwich had a balanced first half of the year where supply was approximately equal to demand for retail space. Over the last year, leasing rates have moderated, and vacancy has remained at low levels. Greenwich Landlords are increasingly focused on identifying tenants with staying power and have become more flexible regarding leasing rates.

Fairfield Offices – Better activity and Pricing

During the First half of 2026, office leasing activity improved, and supply-demand was favorable. Demand is most active and concentrated in Class A buildings with modern amenities, flexible floorplates, and proximity to Metro-North stations in Stamford, Greenwich, and Norwalk. Pricing improved modestly and vacancy declined.

An example of Class A success in modernizing offices and attracting tenancy is RFR who has seen strong leasing momentum at 300 Atlantic Ave. this year as it proceeds modernizing the property to create a customized and unique workplace experience. The improvements include 10,000 square feet amenity spaces that transform the look, feel, and function of the building, and high quality pre-built, move-in ready suites. Bank Street Group LLC has selected this building to relocate their offices currently in Ludlow St. Also, the renewal of headquarters leases by Gartner and Booking Holdings, representing nearly 260,000 square feet combined, was also a noteworthy event that reinforced Stamford and Norwalk as important corporate locations.

Fairfield Retail

Creeping vacancy in Fairfield Retail shops has been met with adjusting lease rates in order to entice new tenants. The second quarter of 2026 showed improvement in achieving a better balance between supply and demand. High financing costs have certainly affected retailers who are more cautious when opening new stores.

Fairfield County Investment Sales – Low Transaction Levels

Capital markets remain disciplined and buyers are focused on stabilized assets with reliable cash flow. Overall, Pricing stabilized compared with 2024–2025 after cap rates adjusted upward because of higher interest rates. Private capital remained the dominant buyer group, and institutions have been very selective and mostly absent. Value-add office acquisitions continued, provided investors believe buildings can be repositioned.

About this Commercial Real Estate Report

This report was researched and written by Teresa Marziano. Please contact Teresa (914- 441-2254) or (TMarziano@HoulihanLawrence. com) for questions, comments or feedback about the contents of this report.

HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL TEAM

Commercial real estate is facing a transition period as low-interest rate loans become due. Interesting commercial real estate investment opportunities will likely become available. Investors must be prepared to evaluate and make decisions expediently as opportunities emerge. Given the consumer and market changes brought about by the intense period of change we have experienced due to structurally higher inflation, higher financing costs, and most recently, policy changes, it is very important to correctly assess market and economic risks that add to the complexities of acquiring commercial real estate. Understanding the ever-changing market forces that are shaping the fundamentals for each property requires a deep knowledge of the property, local and regional insights, and close contacts with the right financial partners. Our Team is highly skilled in all these areas.

Fairfield Unemployment Below 3% and under pre-Pandemic Levels

FAIRFIELD’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Fairfield’s

Sources: COSTAR, US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate and Fairfield’s Median Household Income, CT. All data retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; July 2026

Office Space – Fairfield Appears to be in Recovery and Greenwich continues to show resilience

Greenwich Office market was weak during the first half of the year, with loss of occupancy concentrated in the second quarter. Despite that, it continues to be one of the best office markets in the Country.

Fairfield Office market saw a marked recovery in the first half of 2026. Stamford is driving the Class A market and large blocks are seeing healthy demand.

Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – July 2026

Retail Shows Some Weakness

Greenwich retail real estate has lost occupancy, and leasing rates have declined to entice tenants. The larger Fairfield retail markets have weakened as retailers find it more difficult to open new shops.

Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – July 2026

Investment Activity in Fairfield County Still Subdued

Investment activity in Fairfield County is very subdued but median transaction prices/psf have recovered.

INVESTMENT SALES VOLUMES AT DEPRESSED LEVELS

Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – July 2026