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AgChoice Dairy Industry Outlook 2022

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AGCHOICE.COM

DAIRY INDUSTRY OUTLOOK


Dairy Industry Outlook

Introduction As Pennsylvania's premier agricultural lender, it is the business philosophy of AgChoice Farm Credit to continually research and evaluate the industries we serve, assess risk and make sound lending and business decisions. The Dairy Industry Outlook has been developed to provide insight and guidance on Pennsylvania's dairy industry.

Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Prepared by AgChoice Farm Credit Staff: Michael Hosterman, Agricultural Business Consultant Heather Weeks, Agricultural Business Consultant Rosalie Zaginaylo, Consultant Support Analyst Support from other AgChoice Business Management Services Staff Support from other AgChoice Credit Staff

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Dairy Industry Outlook

Table of Contents Item

Page #

Cover

1

Introduction

2

Table of Contents

3

Blank page

4

Executive Summary

5-7

Outlook Summary

8 - 14

Exhibit 1 - Historical Key Performance Indicators & Projections

15

Exhibit 2 - Milk Production - 23 Selected States

16

Exhibit 3 - Number of U.S. Dairy Operations

17

Exhibit 4 - Historical Milk Price Trend

17

Exhibit 5 - Cow Numbers Trend

18

Exhibit 6 - Milk Shipped per Cow Trend

18

Exhibit 7 -- AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks Includes: 7A - Cost of Production per Cwt., 7B - Cost of Production $ per Cow, 7C - Footnotes, 7D - EBITDA per Cow graph, & 7E - Cost of Production Graph

19-23

Exhibit 8 -- Northeast Dairy Farm Summary for All Farms Includes: 8A - Cost of Production per Cwt., 8B - Cost of Production $ per Cow, 8C - Footnotes, 8D - EBITDA per Cow graph, and 8E - Cost of Production Graph

24-28

Exhibit 9 -- Trend of Dairy Livestock Values Exhibit 10 - PA Milk Price Information

29 30

Exhibit 11 - Class III Milk Price Information

31-32

Includes: 11A - Class III Prices, and 11B - Class III Graphs Exhibit 12 - PA Basis for Class III Milk

33

Exhibit 13 - Class IV Milk Price Information

34-35

Includes: 13A - Class IV Prices, and 13B - Class IV Graphs Exhibit 14 - PA Basis for Class IV Milk

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Exhibit 15 - Cheese price per pound

37

Exhibit 16 - Butterfat price per pound

38

Exhibit 17 - Protein price per pound

39

Exhibit 18 - Other Solids price per pound

40

Exhibit 19 - Butter price per pound

41

Exhibit 20 - Dry whey price per pound

42

Sources

43

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© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

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© AgChoice Farm Credit


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Executive Summary Global dairy demand outweighs supply as Pennsylvania dairy farmers begin 2022 with the strongest Class III and Class IV futures prices in eight years. Northeast dairy farmers are well positioned to take advantage of strong prices if they can manage costs, secure the prices with risk management, and drive efficiencies for long-term viability.

Price Forecast AgChoice predicts the milk price for 2022 will improve from 2021’s average but rising feed costs will pinch margins based on the current commodity markets. Tables 1 and 2 below summarize our price and cash flow predictions. We project 2022 basis to remain more stable around $2.50/cwt for the year, returning to near historical averages. However, prices remain volatile, with Class IV futures currently higher than Class III based on strong butter prices and stock reports. Any difference between the two class prices, greater than $1.48/cwt, will cause a negative adjustment to Producer Price Differential on the milk check, regardless of which class is higher. A return to a “normal” basis and strong class prices equals the highest mailbox price dairy farmers will see in eight years. Farms must use risk management programs to ensure they will receive these prices and mitigate any down-side risk. With higher input costs and supply shortages of certain goods for both cow care and crop production, AgChoice expects cost of production to increase and tighten margins. Opportunities exist for farms to protect a floor and cover their costs of production, especially for Q3 and Q4 of 2022. Table 1 includes projections for 2022 and a Typical Year. Primary assumptions for projections are driven from CME 1 prices as of the date of this Outlook, the Pennsylvania 10-year Class III basis, percentage Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), overhead and moderate increased milk sold per cow. Table 1 – Pennsylvania Projections 2022

Typical Yr.

PA Milk Price

$25.56

$19.00

EBITDA per Cow

$1,150

$900

42%

37%

Overhead as % of Milk Income

27.7%

28%

Net Income per Cow

$785

$405

Net Income per Cwt.

$3.40

$1.68

Net Cost of Production (COP)

$22.16

$17.32

Breakeven Cost of Production

$22.71

$17.87

2

Gross Margin

Note: These prices vary slightly from Exhibit 1 as these are for PA and Exhibit 1 is based on Northeast

1

Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/dairy

2

Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization

©AgChoice Farm Credit 5


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Table 2 – Average Producer’s Projected Cash Flow 2022 2022 Typical Yr. Per Cwt Per Cow Per Cwt

Typical Yr. Per Cow

PA Gross Milk Income

$25.56

$5,712

$19.00

$4,921

Farm Expenses Less Non-Milk Income 3

$20.43

$4,562

$15.53

$4,021

EBITDA

$5.13

$1,150

$3.47

$900

Owner Living or Draws

$1.25

$300

$1.25

$300

Principal and Interest

$2.40

$620

$2.40

$620

Net Residual Income (NRI)

$1.48

$230

-$1.18

-$164

Breakeven Milk Price Before Capital Purchases

$24.08

$5,482

$19.18

$5,085

Capital Purchases

$3.46

$825

$3.09

$825

NRI after Capital Purchases

-$1.98

-$595

-$4.27

-$989

Note: These prices vary slightly from Exhibit 1 as these are for PA and Exhibit 1 is based on Northeast

Pennsylvania projections are summarized as follows: • 2022 o Milk price: $6.50 higher than 2021, or $7.20 higher than the five-year average price o EBITDA per cow: Similar to 2021 and about $350/cow higher than the five-year average o Capital purchases: Continue at the five and 10-year average level of $825 per cow • Typical year o Milk price: Similar to the previous three-year average PA average milk prices range from a low of $18.38 (2017-2021) to a high of $19.46/cwt as the 10-year average of 2012-2021, and are within $1.00/cwt of each other. Exhibit 4 illustrates the trend over the last 15 years. While 2022 illustrates the volatile nature of commodity markets, long-term futures all revert back to historical levels, justifying the typical year comfortably within this trend. o EBITDA per cow: The 10-year average Similar to milk price, the average EBITDA per cow has held within a reasonably small range over the last 10 years; trends shown in Exhibit 8D. The longer-range average smooths outlier years of volatility in farm earnings underplayed by averaging recent years. AgChoice believes that typical year earnings will hue more closely to the 10-year average over a typical year for future budgeting and analysis management. o Capital purchases: Continue at the same five and 10-year average level of $825 per cow As always, when making individual producer projections, compare historical performance to information in Exhibit 1, and make adjustments accordingly. Example: Producer has a five-year EBITDA per cow of $775 (about $20 below the database five-year average); so, EBITDA per cow projected should be $20 below the typical year recommended level, or $880 per cow assuming no other changes to the operation.

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Expenses include depreciation and interest, and a negative expense to account for all non-milk income including any non-farm income

©AgChoice Farm Credit 6


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Review Pennsylvania’s location in the Northeast U.S. positions the state for opportunity within the national dairy sector particularly as the current commodity markets highlight the value in growing forages and grains. Still, Pennsylvania dairy farms trail peers in milk shipped per cow and need to improve milk production to lower cost of production. Two years of strong cash inflows from government relief programs have improved debt per cow and increased cash reserves. While the state’s higher land values do impact the debt per cow, Pennsylvania farmers must increase energy corrected milk4 shipped per cow to lower the overall cost of production and drive earnings that support the higher overhead costs. Critics claim more milk will impact industry macroeconomics; however, at the farm level, that extra pound of milk production is the most profitable and is what Pennsylvania farms need to become competitive on cost of production. Some farms can pivot to a higher value direct market product model although it requires re-investment. Pennsylvania dairies will continue to face pressure to drive down costs and improve production.

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Energy corrected milk (ECM) adjusts milk pounds produced to a standard 3.5% butterfat and 3.2% protein. Farms with higher components in their milk will see a stronger energy corrected milk adjustment compared with farms producing milk with lower comparative butterfat and protein components.

©AgChoice Farm Credit 7


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook In 2022, Pennsylvania dairy producers should focus on the following: 1. Taking advantage of strong class prices a. Pennsylvania producers ship fewer pounds of components per cow than peers in the Northeast U.S. (Exhibit 6). Class III and Class IV prices are higher than they have been since 2014. Producers must take advantage of these prices by capitalizing on high quality milk shipped and utilizing all risk management programs available such as Dairy Revenue Protection (Dairy RP) that allows producers to put a floor on their milk price and retains the upside opportunity. 2. Tracking cost of production and budget a. Dairy producers that do not know their cost of production and have not created a cash flow budget for 2022 likely will make uninformed decisions when input costs are high, and supplies are tight. Budgeting will enable the savvy manager to determine what price the farm can pay for crop inputs and supplies while still ensuring a profit. b. Farms concerned about rising costs are liable to fall into the trap of cutting costs at the expense of production and yields. Cutting costs too far can backfire. Low forage yields may result in farms purchasing high dollar grain or other substitutes. Cutting corners on a ration can result in cows dropping in production or components and squeeze an already tight milk check. 3. Seeking out opportunities a. 2022 presents opportunities for farms to consider dairy farming from a new angle. With supply chain challenges, can farms create a buying group to purchase commodities in bulk? What technological efficiencies exist that farm teams have not yet tried? 4. Tracking EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, and owner draws/living)5 a. EBITDA continues to be an efficiency measure and a benchmark used by many in the industry for assessing operations and making projections. In 20216, EBITDA per cow was around $1,150, bringing the most recent threeyear average to $818 per cow. EBITDA is expected to be stable in 2022 with strong income paired with increased costs. Historical averages are listed below: i. Three-year average: $818/cow or 14.2% of milk income ii. Five-year average: $792/cow or 15.1% of milk income iii. 10-year average: $901/cow or 17.5% of milk income 5. Securing the balance sheet a. Pay down lines of credit or accounts payable that may carry finance charges with larger milk checks. Both forms of debt can carry interest payments, and by reducing or eliminating these short-term debts, cutting interest payments can lower the cost of production. b. By starting with current debts, particularly a revolving line of credit, a farm can improve working capital at the same time with any undrawn commitment available for any unforeseen expenses or to cover crop costs or even prepay for 2023 needs.

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Please note that before using EBITDA per cow as a tool for projecting income, it is important to compare the actual producer’s EBITDA per cow over time to the averages stated here and adjust accordingly. If the actual producer’s EBITDA per cow average is above or below the averages above, you must adjust the EBITDA per cow shown in our price forecast section by a similar amount 6

Government payments including the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) are included in the 2020 EBITDA measure, as historical government support programs are also included in long-term trends, such as the Market Facilitation Program.

©AgChoice Farm Credit 8


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 The following forces will drive the 2022 outlook in the PA dairy industry:

Supply Drivers •

Cow numbers The U.S. dairy herd ended 2021 with 67,000 fewer cows than it started the year. During the year, the herd reached a peak in May 2021 at slightly over 9.5 million cows before dropping by 132,000 to end the year at 9.375 million (Figure 1). Exhibit 5 represents average cows in the U.S. dairy herd over the past 15 years. From 2020, the average herd size during the year increased only slightly by 0.6% or just over 60,000 head. In 2021, production increased a modest 1.37% driven by the spike in the dairy herd in the middle of the year, as milk production per cow only grew by .73% on the national average. Figure 1. U.S. Dairy Cow Numbers, 2021 7

7

Economic Research Service, USDA.

©AgChoice Farm Credit 9


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 In Pennsylvania, cow numbers dropped by 1.66% to 474,000 cows and production fell by 1.61% with production per cow remaining almost static, increasing by a mere 12 pounds per cow per year to 21,338. The state fell to 8th in total milk production, behind Minnesota whose cow numbers only grew by 2.9% but overall production increase by 4% in 2021 (Exhibit 2). The total number of Pennsylvania herds decreased by 4% to 5,200, remaining second in the nation behind Wisconsin with 6,770 herds. No single state grew in dairy herds from 2020 to 2021 although 13 states increased cow numbers with the largest gains coming in South Dakota and Wyoming at 16% and 13% herd growth respectively. Table 3 – Pennsylvania and New York, 2021 Rank PA Nationally

Rank Nationally

Total Production (million lbs)

10,114

8

15,540

5

Number of Licensed Dairies

5,200

2

3,430

3

Number of Cows (thousands)

474

6

627

4

Average Herd Size (cows)

91

46

183

31

21,338

29

24,785

7

Milk Per Cow (lbs) •

NY

Base Programs Cooperative base programs are one reason for limited growth on farms. In the early stages of enforcement, many cooperatives imposed only minor penalties for farms producing over their base allotment. Farms calculated that their price for over-base milk still covered the margin cost of each additional hundredweight. However, beginning in the spring 2021 flush season, processors assessed sufficient penalties to enforce the supply restriction and incentivize farms to limit production through culling. PA Producer basis returned to $2.00/cwt average in 2021 up from $0.05/cwt in 2020 due to the large spread between Class III and Class IV milk prices as a result of residual effects of the Farmers to Families Food Box Program during 2020 and the negative Producer Price Differential that adjusts for this averaging of the two class prices on which PA milk producers get paid. We project 2022 basis to remain more stable around $2.50/cwt for the year, returning to near historical averages (Exhibit 12). Today, processors no longer face an oversupply of milk. It is unlikely that farmers will see the same severe base penalties enforced in spring 2021. The effects of 2021’s base policies continue as farms that culled to reduce overbase penalties are not adding cows back at the same rate they reduced herd size, and are unlikely to grow for threat of additional base restrictions. As a result, U.S. milk production will not rebound as it normally would under such strong price incentives.

©AgChoice Farm Credit 10


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Table 4 is a summary of the Northeast utilization from 2019 as reported by the Northeast Market Administrator8. Fluid milk, the higher value, continues to decline as percentage of total milk. PA Farms observe this shift in Exhibit 4 as the PA gross milk price converges with the U.S. all milk price in recent years as more milk shifts away from Class I utilization. Table 4 – Northeast market milk supply utilization 2019 2020 2021

•

Class 1

31.0%

30.6%

30.1%

Class 2

23.9%

23.9%

25.2%

Class 3

26.8%

25.9%

26.3%

Class 4

18.3%

19.6%

18.5%

Input Costs Penn State estimates a 20.5% increase in feed costs per hundredweight year-over-year as of October 2021. 9 Additionally, crop inputs, particularly fertilizer, are forcing farmers to examine their cropping plans for 2022. Pennsylvania dairy farmers who can grow their own forages and grains have an advantage over farms that must purchase feed ingredients. However, anecdotal evidence suggests managers are weighing the costs and benefits of reducing crop inputs and giving up some forage and quality yield. For farms that choose this method, it is likely they will also see a reduction of not only pounds shipped but potentially component values too.

•

Replacement Inventories Heifer inventories are at their lowest levels across the United States. Cornell’s preliminary results of their 2021 Dairy Farm Business Summary show 76% heifer inventory to cows. In the January 31, 2022 report, NASS reported the total national heifer inventories shrunk by 3.4% year-over-year down to 4.45 million head. 10 Many factors contribute to these results:

8

o

Better reproductive performance and herd health mean fewer culls and replacements needed for the dairy herd

o

More knowledge about genetics allows farms to selectively breed poorer performing cows to beef with the resulting calf earning more value at market

https://www.fmmone.com/Monthly_Newsletter.htm

9

Beck, T, Goodling, R, Ishler, V, Schmidt, C, Swartz, D. 26 October 2021. Dairy Outlook: October 2021. https://extension.psu.edu/dairyoutlook-october-2021

10

National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. 31 January 2022.

©AgChoice Farm Credit 11


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 o

More knowledge about the cost to raise a replacement heifer and increased input costs incentivize farms to limit their replacement inventory to only the animals that are needed for their dairy herd

As a result, the U.S. dairy herd does not have the capacity to add additional animals into milking; the heifers simply no longer exist. Consider it a supply chain issue with a two-year lag time. •

Supply Chain Dairy producers face additional effects of supply chain constraints due to the cost of getting dairy products to market. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index (FFPI) 11 (Figure 2) shows the dramatic increase in global dairy product prices in the second half of 2021 due to continued demand coupled with constraints on supply.

Figure 2. Food Price Index 2021, FAO

11

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

©AgChoice Farm Credit 12


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Demand Drivers •

Exports / Global Supply December 2021 dairy production in top production regions of Argentina, Australia, the European Union, New Zealand, and the United States shrunk by 1.3% compared with the prior year. The biggest drop since 2016, weather in the Southern Hemisphere and European price reactions to quota removal caused the decline. The United States exported 1.3 billion pounds of dairy products to Mexico in 2021, our largest buyer of dairy products. All told, U.S. exports expanded by 10% in 2021 to almost six billion pounds. o

Oceania Wet conditions in the winter and early spring put producers behind in New Zealand heading into the later months of 2021. As of December 2021, New Zealand posted the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year production losses. Production was 3.3% lower in the first seven months of the growing season compared with the 2020-2021 season, and the lowest since 2017-2018. Weather is not the only concern for long-term growth in Oceania. New Zealand’s capacity to expand production is limited by environmental concerns over water quality and operating costs, with current inflation pressure compressing margins. Fonterra has raised pay prices accordingly to meet demand and encourage production.

o

European Union Environmental movements throughout the European Union, and in particularly strong dairy regions, are encouraging retirements and discouraging expansion. While production declined in most areas of Europe at yearend 2021, according to data from Eurostat, Germany’s December 2021 production was 2.9% lower than the prior year and showed an overall decline in production of 1.4 billion pounds compared with 2020. France’s production fell by 1.48% in 2021 and the Netherlands declined by 2.3%. While the United Kingdom and Ireland posted declines in December, production overall was up for the year. Italy and Poland increased production both in December and annually. While weather constraints in Oceania are seasonal and will change, these environmental regulations are unlikely to shift in the near term.

o

China The United States increased exports of total dairy products by 28% in 2021 compared to 2020. In early 2022, U.S. exports to China were slowing, with total exports dropping 34% in December 2021. Analysts estimate this is due to strong purchases in 2020 and 2021 that filled China’s stocks of non-fat dry milk, milk powders, and whey ahead of fears of shipment delays and slowing demand. Chinese pork demand also slowed as output in 2021 was lower than expected. Additionally, China’s population is slowing. These factors indicate that Chinese demand may not grow at the same rates seen in 2020 and 2021, but pressure from global dairy supply indicates that the United States is uniquely positioned to meet China’s dairy needs.

©AgChoice Farm Credit 13


Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

PA Dairy Cash Flow Impacts •

Capital Expenditures The significant flow of cash from government programs in 2020 and 2021 resulted in farms’ ability to reinvest in their operations. Preliminary evidence indicates farmers reinvested around $1,000 per cow of capital expenses in 2020 and $825 in 2021, up from $630 in 2019. These purchases include real estate, improvements, equipment, vehicles, and breeding livestock (animals for expansion). About 37-40% of that reinvestment was in equipment and vehicles and about 20% was in real estate. Historical averages of capital expenditures are as follows: o o o

Three-year average: $900/cow or 7.1% of total assets Five-year average: $825/cow or 6.5% of total assets 10-year average: $825/cow or 6.5% of total assets

We predict capital expenditures in 2022 to be consistent with the five and 10-year average of $825/cow given the increase in input costs discussed above. •

Risk Management Options Price risk management options have never been easier for the Pennsylvania dairy farmer. Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) Supplemental Coverage addressed in 2021 increased the ability for small and mid-sized dairies shipping under five million pounds of milk to cover more milk under this program. Though higher feed costs will compress margins, positive pressure on milk prices forecasts futures elevates margins above the DMC payout in 2022. 12 This is a positive sign for dairy farmers that can insure their milk margins for the rate of $0.15/cwt at the $9.50/cwt coverage level to protect against any shocks to the market. If markets hold, farm accounts will deposit milk checks not seen since 2014. Farms shipping over five-million pounds, or farms that have a breakeven cost of production higher than that $20/cwt approximate figure insured with the adjusted DMC formula also have Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) at their disposal. Classic contracting and options through co-ops and brokers also still exist.

12

Based on futures data gathered 2/24/22.

©AgChoice Farm Credit 14


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 1 Historical Key Performance Indicators & Projections Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Key Performance Indicators PA Milk Price All U.S. Milk Price Northeast Milk Price Northeast Milk Sold per Cow Northeast EBITDA: EBITDA per Cow EBITDA per Cwt. EBITDA as % of Milk Income Northeast Liabilities: Total Liabilities per Cwt. Principal & Interest Payments per Cwt. Principal & Interest Payments per Cow Working Capital per Cow Capital Purchases Per Cow Capital Purchases as % of Total Assets Northeast Gross Revenue: Milk Income per Cow Northeast Efficiency: Gross Margin as % of Milk Income Operating Efficiency -- Operating Expense Ratio 1 Capital Efficiency -- Asset Turnover Ratio 2 Debt Efficiency -- Total Debt/EBITDA Northeast Capacity: Overhead as % of Milk Income Northeast Profitability: Net Income per Cow Net Income per Cwt. Return on Assets Return on Equity Northeast Liquidity: Current Ratio Working Capital as % of Farm Income 3 Northeast Solvency: % Equity Debt to Asset Northeast Repayment Ability: Total Debt Coverage Ratio 4 Northeast Other: Net Cost of Production per Cwt. 5 Breakeven Cost of Production per Cwt. 6 Feed and Crop Cost per Cow Feed and Crop Cost per Cwt. Feed and Crop Cost as % of Milk Income

2020

Est 2021

$ 18.11 $ 21.30 $ 18.48 23,805

$ 19.08 $ 18.69 $ 19.13 23,997

Goals

$ $

< $20.00 < $2.50 > $1,000

$ 18.38 $ 18.48 $ 18.46 23,531

$ 19.46 $ 18.82 $ 19.39 22,701

$ 818 $ 792 $ 901 $ 2.68 $ 2.79 $ 3.50 14.2% 15.1% 17.5%

$ 15.25 $ 2.40 $ 625 $ 1,025 $ 825 6.6%

$ 15.46 $ 2.43 $ 628 $ 958 $ 829 6.6%

$ 15.64 $ 2.45 $ 630 $ 999 $ 812 6.5%

$ 15.17 $ 2.43 $ 606 $ 1,117 $ 820 6.6%

$ 4,399

$ 4,591

$ 4,496

$ 4,502

$ 4,702

$ $

> 2.00 > 20% $ > 60% < 40% $ > 150%

$ 18.78 $ 19.53 $ 18.93 23,757

$ 15.38 $ 2.37 $ 613 $ 1,025 $ 1,031 8.1%

< 400%

> 6% > 6%

752 $ 1,150 2.89 $ 3.00 15.6% 15.7%

Averages 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average

42.6% 89.6% 48.0% 529.4%

42.0% 85.0% 50.0% 500.0%

27.7%

27.7%

2022

$ 25.56 $ 24.36 $ 23.80 24,000

27.6%

$

350 1.50 6.0% 6.0%

$ 494 $ 358 $ 405 $ 1.96 $ 1.42 $ 1.66 6.0% 4.6% 4.6% 6.5% 4.6% 4.8%

3.40 22%

2.90 22%

3.03 20%

2.81 20%

2.77 20%

69% 31%

69% 31%

68% 32%

68% 32%

70% 30%

112%

120%

118%

101%

119%

$ 18.11 $ 18.13 $ 2,031 $ 7.85 44.4%

$ 18.00 $ 17.50 $ 2,087 $ 7.98 44.4%

$ 17.97 $ 17.79 $ 2,006 $ 7.73 42.4%

$ 17.65 $ 17.88 $ 1,966 $ 7.64 42.4%

$ 18.04 $ 18.39 $ 2,041 $ 8.21 43.0%

825

$ 5,712

27.3%

663 $ 2.56 $ 6.4% 7.6%

$ 21.32 $ 20.43 $ 18.93 25,900

$ 19.00 $ 18.00 $ 19.00 25,900

$ 1,150 $ 818 $ 900 $ 4.79 $ 3.16 $ 3.48 20.1% 16.7% 18.3%

40.4% 36.9% 36.2% 86.3% 86.1% 84.6% 48.3% 46.2% 45.9% 588.4% 579.7% 499.7% 27.1%

Projections 2023 Typical Year

$

825

$ 4,902

$

825

$ 4,921

42.0%

36.9%

36.9%

27.7%

28.0%

28.0%

$ $

785 3.40

$ 494 $ 1.68

$ 405 $ 1.68

$ $ $ $

20.40 20.95 2,536 10.57 44.4%

$ 17.25 $ 17.80 $ 2,177 $ 8.40 44.4%

$ 17.32 $ 17.87 $ 2,106 $ 8.13 42.8%

Notes: 1 Operating Expense Ratio: (Farm Expense w/o interest & depreciation) / (Gross Farm Income) 2 Asset Turnover Ratio: Gross farm income / Total Assets 3 Working Capital Sufficiency -- Working Capital as % of Farm Income: Working Capital / Gross Farm Income 4 Total Debt Coverage Ratio: (Net Income + Depreciation + Interest expense) / Debt service 5 Net Cost of Production: Includes depreciation expense and not principal payments 6 Breakeven Cost of Production: Includes principal payments and not depreciation expense

15

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Exhibit 2 Milk Production - Top 23 States Year:

2021

Milk Production State

California Wisconsin Idaho Texas New York Michigan Minnesota Pennsylvania New Mexico Washington Ohio Iowa Colorado Arizona Indiana Kansas South Dakota Oregon Vermont Utah Florida Illinois Georgia Top 23 Total All U.S.

Current Previous Ranking Ranking

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 22

1 2 3 5 4 6 8 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 20 22 23

In Million of Lbs.

Number of Cows

% Change over prior % of U.S. year In Thousands Total

41,864 31,702 16,412 15,599 15,540 11,952 10,548 10,114 7,804 6,504 5,643 5,538 5,271 4,818 4,532 4,098 3,603 2,622 2,566 2,223 2,170 1,774 1,798

1.3% 3.1% 1.1% 5.0% 1.6% 2.3% 3.7% -1.6% -4.5% -4.6% 0.4% 3.1% 2.3% -1.5% 4.6% 1.8% 15.5% -0.6% -1.4% -0.3% -5.1% -0.7% 1.5%

18.5% 14.0% 7.3% 6.9% 6.9% 5.3% 4.7% 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8%

1,719 1,274 652 622 627 441 461 474 318 271 257 226 203 198 192 172 156 125 120 96 108 82 82

214,695 226,258

1.3%

94.9% 100.0%

8,876 9,448

State % of U.S. Total Ranking

1 2 3 5 4 8 7 6 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 20 22 22

Licensed Dairies Number

18.2% 13.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.6% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 3.4% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9%

1,195 6,770 430 340 3,430 1,140 2,215 5,200 120 330 1,620 880 110 80 770 230 165 190 580 140 75 495 110

93.9% 100.0%

26,615 29,858

16

State % of U.S. Ranking Total

6 1 13 16 3 7 4 2 27 17 5 8 28 34 9 19 22 21 11 24-T 35 12 27-T

Average Herd Size Ave. Head

4.0% 22.7% 1.4% 1.1% 11.5% 3.8% 7.4% 17.4% 0.4% 1.1% 5.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 1.7% 0.4%

1,438 188 1,516 1,829 183 387 208 91 2,650 821 159 257 1,845 2,475 249 748 945 658 207 686 1,440 166 745

89.1% 100.0%

316

State Ranking

9 30 7 4 31 18 26 46 1 11 35 22 3 2 23 12 10 15 27 14 8 34 13

Milk Per Cow Lbs. Year

24,354 24,884 25,172 25,079 24,785 27,102 22,881 21,338 24,541 24,000 21,957 24,504 25,966 24,333 23,604 23,826 23,096 20,976 21,383 23,156 20,093 21,634 21,927

State Ranking

12 6 4 5 7 1 20 29 9 14 25 11 2 13 16 15 18 31 28 17 36 27 26

23,948

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Exhibit 3

28,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

29,858

31,657

38,000

34,187

37,468

40,219

41,809

43,584

48,000

45,344

49,331

51,291

53,132

54,942

57,127

59,130

# of Licensed Dairy Operatons

58,000

46,960

# of Operations

68,000

2020

2021

2020

2021

Exhibit 4 Historical Milk Prices $26.00 $24.00 $22.00

Milk $/Cwt.

$20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00

2008 Class III

2009

2010

Gross PA

2011

2012

Gross All U.S.

2013

2014

2015

Class III trend line

17

2016

2017

2018

PA trend line

2019

All U.S. trend line

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Exhibit 5 Cow Numbers

1,100

9,600

9,200

900 8,800 800 8,400 700 8,000 600

U.S. Cow Numbers - Thousands

Number of Cows - Thousands

1,000

7,600

500

7,200

400

Northeast

PA

All U.S.

Trend Northeast

Trend PA

Exhibit 6 Milk Shipped Per Cow 24,000 23,000

Pounds of Milk

22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000

Northeast

PA

18

All U.S.

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 7A Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks $ per Cwt. -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 304 294 255

2011 180

2012 172

2013 249

2014 237

2015 240

2016 266

2017 294

2018 265

2019 336

2020 311

21,390

20,335

23,076

23,129

23,344

23,586

23,998

23,668

23,622

23,529

23,606

23,681

22,968

Milk Income

$ 21.40

$ 20.18

$ 21.52

$ 25.69

$ 18.84

$ 17.31

$ 19.01

$ 17.31

$ 19.34

$ 19.68

$ 18.77

$ 18.53

$ 20.03

Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold

1.76 6.93 0.99 1.95 0.80 2.13 1.04 0.08 0.29 (5.36) $ 10.62 $

Gross Margin

$ 10.79

$ 10.60

$ 8.77

$ 13.17

$ 7.10

$ 5.70

$ 7.66

$ 5.51

$ 8.08

$ 9.99

$ 7.86

$ 7.39

$ 8.74

Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead

1.74 1.04 0.65 0.29 0.38 0.51 1.67 1.67 $ 7.96

1.66 0.90 0.61 0.30 0.59 0.59 1.69 2.03 $ 8.37

1.47 0.92 0.68 0.22 0.40 0.52 1.16 1.66 $ 7.03

1.79 0.83 0.78 0.25 0.46 0.58 1.44 2.15 $ 8.27

1.35 0.84 0.75 0.24 0.35 0.54 1.52 1.77 $ 7.36

1.20 0.89 0.70 0.25 0.33 0.51 1.30 1.71 $ 6.90

1.23 0.98 0.67 0.27 0.33 0.50 1.19 1.65 $ 6.82

1.14 0.99 0.73 0.29 0.35 0.52 1.24 1.67 $ 6.92

1.13 1.06 0.75 0.27 0.35 0.50 1.10 1.65 $ 6.81

1.42 0.94 0.82 0.28 0.29 0.49 1.42 1.73 $ 7.40

1.23 1.00 0.77 0.28 0.33 0.50 1.26 1.68 $ 7.04

1.22 0.97 0.73 0.27 0.33 0.50 1.25 1.68 $ 6.97

1.41 0.94 0.71 0.27 0.38 0.52 1.37 1.77 $ 7.38

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

$ 18.57

$ 17.95

$ 19.78

$ 20.79

$ 19.09

$ 18.51

$ 18.17

$ 18.72

$ 18.06

$ 17.09

$ 17.96

$ 18.11

$ 18.67

Net Margin or Net Income

$ 2.83

$ 2.23

$ 1.74

$ 4.90

$ (0.26) $ (1.20) $ 0.84

$ (1.41) $ 1.27

$ 2.59

$ 0.82

$ 0.42

$ 1.35

0.26

0.54

0.20

0.41

0.29

0.12

0.21

0.24

0.21

0.32

0.25

0.22

0.28

Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production

$ 1.94 $ 18.85

$ 1.55 $ 17.48

$ 1.50 $ 19.61

$ 2.21 $ 20.84

$ 1.61 $ 18.93

$ 1.42 $ 18.22

$ 1.52 $ 18.03

$ 1.45 $ 18.50

$ 1.61 $ 18.02

$ 1.74 $ 17.10

$ 1.60 $ 17.88

$ 1.55 $ 17.98

$ 1.66 $ 18.56

EBITDA 8

$ 6.96

$ 6.31

$ 5.27

$ 8.92

$ 3.59

$ 2.59

$ 4.45

$ 2.25

$ 4.89

$ 6.36

$ 4.50

$ 4.11

$ 5.16

Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow

Non-Farm include in Non Milk

7

2.13 2.42 2.43 2.48 2.46 2.55 2.29 2.56 6.52 7.01 7.81 5.69 5.78 5.91 5.56 6.10 0.81 1.08 1.31 1.09 0.98 1.11 1.02 1.20 2.14 2.03 2.50 1.60 1.39 1.60 1.46 1.66 1.01 0.85 0.92 0.57 0.47 0.55 0.63 0.58 2.08 2.08 2.42 2.08 1.88 1.84 1.69 1.77 1.11 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.35 1.51 1.70 1.57 0.09 0.09 0.19 0.21 0.10 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.35 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.23 (6.66) (4.28) (6.49) (3.48) (3.03) (3.97) (2.81) (4.49) 9.58 $ 12.75 $ 12.52 $ 11.73 $ 11.61 $ 11.35 $ 11.80 $ 11.26 $

19

2.50 7.01 1.27 2.05 0.44 1.89 1.72 0.04 0.26 (7.50) 9.69

2.45 2.47 2.36 6.22 6.07 6.43 1.17 1.12 1.09 1.72 1.63 1.84 0.55 0.53 0.68 1.78 1.81 1.99 1.66 1.57 1.35 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.24 0.23 0.27 (4.93) (4.36) (4.81) $ 10.92 $ 11.14 $ 11.29

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 7B Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks $ per Cow -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 304 294 255

2011 180

2012 172

2013 249

2014 237

2015 240

2016 266

2017 294

2018 265

2019 336

2020 311

21,390

20,335

23,076

23,129

23,344

23,586

23,998

23,668

23,622

23,529

23,606

23,681

22,968

Milk Income

$ 4,578

$ 4,104

$ 4,966

$ 5,942

$ 4,397

$ 4,082

$ 4,561

$ 4,096

$ 4,568

$ 4,630

$ 4,431

$ 4,387

$ 4,592

Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold

377 433 558 563 578 581 611 542 604 589 1,483 1,326 1,618 1,807 1,329 1,363 1,418 1,315 1,441 1,650 212 164 249 303 255 231 267 242 284 299 418 436 468 578 374 327 383 346 392 483 172 205 197 212 132 110 133 148 138 104 455 422 480 560 486 444 441 401 417 444 222 226 266 264 285 319 362 402 372 404 18 18 21 43 50 23 9 12 17 10 61 72 72 68 62 55 52 51 54 62 (1,147) (1,354) (987) (1,502) (812) (715) (953) (666) (1,060) (1,765) $ 2,271 $ 1,948 $ 2,942 $ 2,896 $ 2,739 $ 2,738 $ 2,723 $ 2,793 $ 2,659 $ 2,280

578 585 544 1,469 1,437 1,475 275 265 251 407 386 421 130 127 155 421 429 455 393 372 312 13 14 22 56 55 61 (1,164) (1,032) (1,096) $ 2,577 $ 2,639 $ 2,599

Gross Margin

$ 2,307

$ 2,156

$ 2,024

$ 3,046

$ 1,658

$ 1,344

$ 1,838

$ 1,303

$ 1,909

$ 2,350

$ 1,854

$ 1,749

$ 1,994

Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead

372 223 139 63 81 109 358 357 $ 1,702

338 184 124 62 119 120 344 412 $ 1,703

339 212 158 51 93 119 267 384 $ 1,623

413 193 180 57 106 133 333 497 $ 1,912

315 197 175 56 82 125 354 414 $ 1,718

283 211 166 59 78 120 307 403 $ 1,627

295 234 161 65 79 120 286 397 $ 1,637

269 234 173 68 82 122 294 395 $ 1,637

267 251 176 63 82 118 261 390 $ 1,608

335 221 193 66 69 115 335 406 $ 1,740

290 235 181 66 78 118 297 397 $ 1,662

290 230 174 64 78 119 297 398 $ 1,650

323 216 165 61 87 120 314 406 $ 1,691

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

$ 3,973

$ 3,651

$ 4,565

$ 4,808

$ 4,457

$ 4,365

$ 4,360

$ 4,430

$ 4,267

$ 4,020

$ 4,239

$ 4,288

$ 4,290

Net Margin or Net Income

$

$

$

401

$ 1,134

$

$

$

$

$

Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow

Non-Farm include in Non Milk

7

605

453

(60) $ (283) $

201

$ (334) $

301

610

192

99

303

55

110

47

94

67

28

50

56

49

75

60

52

63

Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production

416 $ 4,032

316 $ 3,555

345 $ 4,526

510 $ 4,821

377 $ 4,420

335 $ 4,297

365 $ 4,328

344 $ 4,379

380 $ 4,257

410 $ 4,024

378 $ 4,220

367 $ 4,257

380 $ 4,264

EBITDA 8

$ 1,488

$ 1,283

$ 1,217

$ 2,063

$

$

$ 1,068

$

$ 1,154

$ 1,497

$ 1,061

$

$ 1,175

838

20

610

533

972

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 7C Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks Footnotes -- Accrual Summary of All Farms Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow Milk Income

Footnotes:

Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold

1

Crop Expense = Chemicals + Fertilizer, Lime + Seed, Plant Purchases

2

Livestock Expense = Supply Purchases + Bedding + Production Enhancers + Veterinary, Breeding, etc. + Hoof Care + DHIA

3

Non-Milk Income = Livestock sales + rents + cash crops + Cooperative Distributions + Ag Program Payments + Interest income + Wages + Accrual Adj.

4

Owner Draw = Income Taxes/Social Security + Living Expenses/Partner Draws

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

5

Net Cost of Production = Total Cost of Goods Sold + Total Overhead

Net Margin or Net Income

6

Net Cost of Production = Accrual based break even milk price

7

Non Farm income amount included in Non-Milk Income -- This is used in calculating EBITDA for comparison to AgChoice trend forms

8

EBITDA is calculated by adding Depreciation, Interest, Owner Draws, & Non-Farm income back to Net Margin

Gross Margin Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead

Non-Farm include in Non Milk

7

Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production EBITDA 8

21

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Exhibit 7D

Historical AgChoice Dairy SPR All Farms - EBITDA per Cow 2,500

2,000

$ per cow

1,500

1,000

500

-

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

10-Year Average

5-Year Average

3-Year Average

Linear (10-Year Average)

Linear (5-Year Average)

Linear (3-Year Average)

22

2019

2020

2021

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 7E Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: AgChoice Farm Credit Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks Accrual Summary for All Farms

$24.00

$20.00

$16.00

$12.00

$8.00

$4.00

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

$-

$(4.00) Milk Income

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

Net Margin or Net Income

Linear (Milk Income)

Linear (Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6)

Linear (Net Margin or Net Income)

23

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 8A Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks $ per Cwt. -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 588 527 433

2010 306

2011 326

2012 343

2013 315

2014 339

2015 374

2016 403

2017 470

2018 478

2019 600

2020 685

22,809

23,244

23,552

23,848

23,847

24,445

25,239

25,493

25,264

25,793

25,884

25,647

25,535

24,661

Milk Income

$ 17.70

$ 21.53

$ 19.74

$ 21.30

$ 25.52

$ 18.18

$ 16.85

$ 18.34

$ 17.19

$ 19.17

$ 18.48

$ 18.28

$ 18.01

$ 19.63

Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold

2.81 2.97 3.07 3.09 3.43 3.26 3.20 3.33 3.19 3.26 3.35 5.58 6.79 7.50 7.75 7.85 7.09 6.24 6.24 6.45 6.30 6.64 0.64 0.64 0.62 0.65 0.65 0.74 0.63 0.63 0.73 0.81 0.83 1.10 1.28 1.52 1.61 1.68 1.39 1.21 1.21 1.13 1.06 1.21 0.79 1.07 1.07 1.05 1.08 0.68 0.52 0.59 0.69 0.63 0.48 1.67 1.68 2.03 1.95 2.18 2.01 1.89 1.87 1.64 1.68 1.68 0.94 0.87 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.97 0.98 1.05 1.14 1.14 1.22 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.20 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.53 0.71 0.34 0.23 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.40 0.31 0.37 (3.02) (3.21) (4.19) (3.58) (3.87) (4.33) (3.58) (3.22) (3.14) (2.86) (4.86) $ 11.10 $ 12.84 $ 12.93 $ 13.76 $ 14.52 $ 12.22 $ 11.55 $ 12.08 $ 12.24 $ 12.36 $ 10.98

3.26 3.26 3.21 6.46 6.37 6.89 0.79 0.73 0.69 1.13 1.16 1.33 0.60 0.58 0.79 1.67 1.75 1.86 1.17 1.10 1.02 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.36 0.36 0.39 (3.62) (3.53) (3.68) $ 11.86 $ 11.84 $ 12.55

Gross Margin

$ 6.61

$ 8.69

$ 6.80

$ 7.54

$ 11.00

$ 5.96

$ 5.31

$ 6.26

$ 4.95

$ 6.81

$ 7.50

$ 6.42

$ 6.17

$ 7.08

Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead

1.09 0.58 0.33 0.25 0.25 0.47 0.67 1.24 $ 4.87

1.37 0.52 0.36 0.26 0.26 0.46 0.69 1.14 $ 5.07

1.29 0.50 0.34 0.27 0.25 0.43 0.64 1.25 $ 4.97

1.39 0.49 0.39 0.30 0.26 0.47 0.75 1.43 $ 5.48

1.77 0.48 0.45 0.33 0.28 0.51 0.75 1.51 $ 6.07

1.43 0.47 0.45 0.28 0.29 0.47 0.69 1.44 $ 5.52

1.23 0.52 0.39 0.28 0.27 0.42 0.58 1.38 $ 5.08

1.29 0.63 0.41 0.31 0.25 0.36 0.49 1.30 $ 5.03

1.13 0.76 0.42 0.28 0.24 0.38 0.49 1.27 $ 4.98

1.21 0.81 0.50 0.29 0.23 0.34 0.41 1.21 $ 4.99

1.50 0.57 0.54 0.27 0.23 0.34 0.34 1.16 $ 4.94

1.28 0.71 0.49 0.28 0.23 0.35 0.41 1.21 $ 4.97

1.27 0.66 0.45 0.29 0.24 0.37 0.46 1.26 $ 5.01

1.36 0.58 0.43 0.29 0.26 0.42 0.58 1.31 $ 5.21

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

$ 15.97

$ 17.91

$ 17.90

$ 19.25

$ 20.59

$ 17.74

$ 16.63

$ 17.11

$ 17.22

$ 17.35

$ 15.92

$ 16.83

$ 16.85

$ 17.76

Net Margin or Net Income

$ 1.74

$ 3.62

$ 1.84

$ 2.05

$ 4.93

$ 0.44

$ 0.23

$ 1.23

$ (0.03) $ 1.82

$ 2.56

$ 1.45

$ 1.16

$ 1.87

0.18

0.18

0.19

0.24

0.18

0.56

0.17

0.09

0.13

0.09

0.07

0.10

0.11

0.19

Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production

$ 1.75 $ 16.48

$ 1.79 $ 18.56

$ 1.79 $ 18.44

$ 2.00 $ 19.81

$ 2.02 $ 21.11

$ 1.91 $ 18.21

$ 1.88 $ 17.12

$ 1.76 $ 17.57

$ 1.83 $ 17.78

$ 1.71 $ 17.85

$ 1.80 $ 16.56

$ 1.78 $ 17.40

$ 1.79 $ 17.38

$ 1.85 $ 18.30

EBITDA 8

$ 4.04

$ 5.79

$ 4.03

$ 4.50

$ 7.49

$ 2.47

$ 2.54

$ 3.56

$ 2.36

$ 4.15

$ 4.56

$ 3.69

$ 3.44

$ 4.15

Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow

Non-Farm include in Non Milk

7

24

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 8B Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks $ per Cow -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 588 527 433

2010 306

2011 326

2012 343

2013 315

2014 339

2015 374

2016 403

2017 470

2018 478

2019 600

2020 685

22,809

23,244

23,552

23,848

23,847

24,445

25,239

25,493

25,264

25,793

25,884

25,647

25,535

24,661

Milk Income

$ 4,038

$ 5,004

$ 4,648

$ 5,080

$ 6,086

$ 4,444

$ 4,254

$ 4,676

$ 4,344

$ 4,945

$ 4,784

$ 4,691

$ 4,601

$ 4,827

Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold

640 690 722 737 817 797 808 849 805 841 866 1,273 1,578 1,767 1,849 1,873 1,733 1,576 1,590 1,630 1,625 1,718 146 149 146 155 155 180 159 161 185 209 214 252 297 357 384 400 339 305 308 286 274 313 180 249 253 251 258 166 132 151 174 163 125 381 391 477 465 521 492 476 477 415 433 435 215 202 221 227 225 237 247 267 288 294 315 11 12 11 13 47 4 17 8 2 5 17 122 164 79 55 90 96 97 88 101 81 97 (689) (747) (987) (854) (923) (1,058) (903) (820) (793) (737) (1,258) $ 2,531 $ 2,985 $ 3,046 $ 3,282 $ 3,463 $ 2,986 $ 2,914 $ 3,079 $ 3,093 $ 3,188 $ 2,842

837 834 793 1,658 1,628 1,694 203 186 171 291 297 326 154 149 192 428 447 458 299 282 252 8 10 14 93 93 95 (929) (902) (908) $ 3,041 $ 3,023 $ 3,088

Gross Margin

$ 1,507

$ 2,019

$ 1,602

$ 1,798

$ 2,623

$ 1,458

$ 1,340

$ 1,597

$ 1,251

$ 1,757

$ 1,942

$ 1,650

$ 1,577

$ 1,739

Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead

248 132 76 58 56 107 152 282 $ 1,111

319 122 83 60 61 108 160 265 $ 1,178

304 117 81 63 59 102 150 294 $ 1,170

331 118 93 71 62 112 180 341 $ 1,308

421 114 107 78 67 121 180 359 $ 1,447

350 115 110 69 72 115 168 351 $ 1,350

310 132 99 71 68 107 146 349 $ 1,282

328 160 104 79 63 93 125 331 $ 1,283

285 192 107 71 61 97 123 322 $ 1,258

312 208 130 75 60 87 105 311 $ 1,288

389 148 139 69 59 87 89 299 $ 1,279

329 183 125 72 60 90 106 311 $ 1,275

325 168 116 73 62 94 118 322 $ 1,278

335 143 105 71 63 103 143 322 $ 1,284

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

$ 3,642

$ 4,163

$ 4,216

$ 4,590

$ 4,910

$ 4,336

$ 4,196

$ 4,362

$ 4,351

$ 4,476

$ 4,121

$ 4,316

$ 4,301

$ 4,372

Net Margin or Net Income

$

$

$

$

490

$ 1,176

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow

Non-Farm include in Non Milk

7

396

841

432

108

58

314

(7) $

469

663

375

299

454

41

41

44

57

42

138

43

23

33

22

19

25

28

46

Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production

399 $ 3,759

416 $ 4,314

421 $ 4,343

476 $ 4,725

482 $ 5,033

466 $ 4,451

475 $ 4,322

448 $ 4,479

463 $ 4,492

440 $ 4,605

465 $ 4,287

456 $ 4,461

458 $ 4,437

455 $ 4,505

EBITDA 8

$

$ 1,347

$

$ 1,072

$ 1,787

$

$

$

$

$ 1,071

$ 1,180

$

$

$ 1,016

921

949

604

25

642

907

597

949

879

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 8C Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks Footnotes -- Accrual Summary of All Farms Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow Milk Income

Footnotes:

Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold

1

Crop Expense = Chemicals + Fertilizer, Lime + Seed, Plant Purchases

2

Livestock Expense = Supply Purchases + Bedding + Production Enhancers + Veterinary, Breeding, etc. + Hoof Care + DHIA

3

Non-Milk Income = Livestock sales + rents + cash crops + Cooperative Distributions + Ag Program Payments + Interest income + Wages

4

Owner Draw = Income Taxes/Social Security + Living Expenses/Partner Draws

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

5

Net Cost of Production = Total Cost of Goods Sold + Total Overhead

Net Margin or Net Income

6

Net Cost of Production = Accrual based break even milk price

7

Non Farm income amount included in Non-Milk Income -- This is used in calculating EBITDA for comparison to AgChoice trend forms

8

EBITDA is calculated by adding Depreciation, Interest, Owner Draws, & Non-Farm income back to Net Margin

Gross Margin Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead

Non-Farm include in Non Milk

7

Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production EBITDA 8

26

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Exhibit 8D

Historical Northeast All Farms - EBITD per Cow 2000

1800

1600

1400

$ per cow

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Annual EBITDA per cow

15 year Average

10 year Average

5 year Average

3 year Average

Linear (Annual EBITDA per cow)

Linear (15 year Average)

Linear (10 year Average)

Linear (5 year Average)

Linear (3 year Average)

27

2022

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 8E Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks Accrual Summary for All Farms

$24.00

$20.00

$16.00

$12.00

$8.00

$4.00

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

$-

$(4.00) Milk Income

Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6

Net Margin or Net Income

Linear (Milk Income)

Linear (Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6)

Linear (Net Margin or Net Income)

28

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 9 Trend of Dairy Livestock Values Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 2500

Dairy Cows Spring Heifers

1500

Open Heifers Heifer Calves

1000

500

0

9/2/2015 11/4/2015 1/6/2016 3/2/2016 5/4/2016 7/6/2016 8/31/2016 11/2/2016 1/4/2017 3/1/2017 5/3/2017 7/5/2017 9/6/2017 11/1/2017 1/3/2018 2/28/2018 5/2/2018 7/4/2018 8/29/2018 10/31/2018 12/19/2018 2/27/2019 4/17/2019 7/3/2019 9/4/2019 11/6/2019 12/18/2019 2/19/2020 5/29/2019 7/31/2019 10/2/2019 12/4/2019 2/5/2020 7/8/2020 11/15/2020 8/31/2021 3/9/2022 5-Yr. Ave. 3-Yr. Ave. 12 mo. Ave.

$ Per Cow

2000

Comments: 1) The table above is a summary of data taken from the AgChoice Appraisal Department's livestock summary excel file that summarizes values they review and compile from USDA Department of Ag News New Holland, PA Auction.

29

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 10 PA Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $14.60 $16.30 $20.85 $23.90 $20.04 $22.60 $14.45 $17.90 $18.28 $20.30 $22.12 $24.20 $20.01 $23.60 $21.42 $23.40 $25.64 $27.40 $18.48 $20.30 $17.18 $19.40 $18.66 $20.00 $16.87 $18.10 $19.16 $21.00 $18.11 $20.20 $19.08 $22.30

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $16.30 $16.20 $22.60 $16.20 $18.00 $18.90 $20.90 $21.40 $24.90 $19.20 $17.40 $20.00 $17.00 $17.70 $20.20 $17.30

Feb $15.80 $16.50 $21.00 $13.50 $18.10 $20.70 $19.60 $21.10 $25.90 $18.30 $17.10 $19.60 $15.90 $17.90 $19.40 $17.40

Mar $14.80 $17.20 $19.10 $13.00 $17.00 $22.00 $19.00 $20.70 $26.70 $17.70 $16.30 $18.80 $16.00 $18.50 $18.90 $17.90

Apr $13.80 $18.00 $19.90 $13.40 $16.30 $21.50 $18.40 $20.08 $26.80 $17.60 $16.20 $17.60 $16.40 $18.30 $15.30 $18.40

May $13.50 $19.30 $19.50 $13.40 $16.90 $22.10 $17.90 $21.00 $26.20 $17.80 $15.90 $17.40 $16.70 $18.60 $14.00 $19.30

Jun $13.50 $21.30 $20.30 $12.90 $17.50 $22.90 $17.50 $21.00 $25.10 $18.10 $15.80 $18.20 $17.00 $18.80 $16.30 $19.10

Jul $13.50 $23.40 $21.40 $13.00 $18.10 $23.50 $18.00 $20.70 $25.40 $17.60 $16.90 $18.60 $16.20 $19.10 $19.30 $18.50

Aug $13.80 $23.80 $20.50 $13.30 $18.50 $24.20 $18.90 $21.00 $26.30 $17.60 $17.50 $19.20 $16.40 $19.40 $18.10 $18.40

Sep $14.10 $23.80 $20.50 $14.20 $19.60 $23.80 $20.80 $21.70 $27.40 $18.90 $17.90 $19.00 $17.10 $19.60 $18.00 $19.00

Oct $15.20 $23.60 $19.40 $15.80 $20.30 $22.20 $22.80 $22.00 $26.10 $19.40 $17.70 $18.60 $18.10 $20.10 $18.80 $19.90

Nov $15.40 $23.90 $19.20 $16.80 $20.20 $22.20 $23.60 $23.00 $24.30 $20.30 $18.10 $18.70 $18.00 $21.00 $20.20 $21.50

Dec $15.50 $23.20 $17.10 $17.90 $18.90 $21.40 $22.70 $23.40 $22.60 $19.20 $19.40 $18.20 $17.60 $20.90 $18.80 $22.30

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$24.80 $24.12 $18.87

$23.91 $23.25

$25.12 $22.67

$25.66 $22.26

$26.12 $22.07

$26.09 $21.50

$26.00 $21.10

$26.00 $20.90

$25.88 $21.45

$25.71 $18.76

$25.45 $18.76

$25.92 $19.01

$25.56 $21.32 $18.87

$26.12 $24.12 $18.87

$23.91 $18.76 $18.87

3-Year Average* $18.40 $18.23

3-Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

Low $13.50 $16.20 $17.10 $12.90 $16.30 $18.90 $17.50 $20.08 $22.60 $17.60 $15.80 $17.40 $15.90 $17.70 $14.00 $17.30

$18.43

$17.33

$17.30

$18.07

$18.97

$18.63

$18.87

$19.60

$20.90

$20.67

$18.78

$20.90

$17.30

$17.90

$18.50

$18.30

$18.60

$18.80

$19.10

$18.40

$19.00

$19.90

$21.00

$20.90

$19.01

$21.00

$17.70

5-Year Average* $18.44 $18.04

$17.70

$18.02

$17.20

$17.20

$17.88

$18.34

$18.30

$18.54

$19.10

$19.88

$19.56

$18.38

$19.88

$17.20

$18.23

$18.40

$17.43

$17.57

$18.00

$18.73

$18.57

$18.67

$19.10

$19.97

$19.30

$18.53

$19.97

$17.43

10-Year Average* $19.60 $19.22

$19.05

$18.51

$18.48

$18.69

$19.03

$19.28

$19.94

$20.35

$20.87

$20.51

$19.46

$20.87

$18.48

$18.48

$17.87

$18.08

$18.25

$18.59

$18.76

$19.36

$19.96

$20.80

$20.51

$19.06

$20.80

$17.87

$18.33

$19.26

$18.80

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: PA milk prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

30

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Table 11A Class III Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $11.89 $13.47 $10.83 $18.04 $21.38 $13.56 $17.44 $20.25 $15.28 $11.36 $14.98 $9.31 $14.41 $16.94 $12.78 $18.36 $21.55 $13.48 $17.44 $21.02 $15.23 $17.99 $18.95 $16.93 $22.34 $24.60 $17.82 $15.80 $16.72 $14.44 $14.86 $17.40 $12.76 $16.17 $16.88 $15.22 $14.61 $16.09 $13.40 $16.96 $20.45 $13.89 $18.16 $24.54 $12.14 $17.08 $18.96 $15.75

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $13.39 $13.56 $19.32 $10.78 $14.50 $13.48 $17.05 $18.14 $21.15 $16.18 $13.72 $16.77 $14.00 $13.96 $17.05 $16.04

Feb $12.20 $14.18 $17.03 $9.31 $14.28 $17.00 $16.06 $17.25 $23.35 $15.46 $13.80 $16.88 $13.40 $13.89 $17.00 $15.75

Mar $11.11 $15.09 $18.00 $10.44 $12.78 $19.40 $15.72 $16.93 $23.33 $15.56 $13.74 $15.81 $14.22 $15.04 $16.25 $16.15

Apr $10.93 $16.09 $16.76 $10.78 $12.92 $16.87 $15.72 $17.59 $24.31 $15.81 $13.63 $15.22 $14.47 $15.96 $13.07 $17.67

May $10.83 $17.60 $18.18 $9.84 $13.38 $16.52 $15.23 $18.52 $22.57 $16.19 $12.76 $15.57 $15.18 $16.38 $12.14 $18.96

Jun $11.29 $20.17 $20.25 $9.97 $13.62 $19.11 $15.63 $18.02 $21.36 $16.72 $13.22 $16.44 $15.21 $16.27 $21.04 $17.21

Jul $10.92 $21.38 $18.24 $9.97 $13.74 $21.39 $16.68 $17.38 $21.60 $16.33 $15.24 $15.45 $14.10 $17.55 $24.54 $16.49

Aug $11.06 $19.83 $17.32 $11.20 $15.18 $21.55 $17.73 $17.91 $22.25 $16.27 $16.91 $16.57 $14.95 $17.60 $19.77 $15.95

Sep $12.29 $20.07 $16.28 $12.11 $16.26 $19.07 $19.00 $18.14 $24.60 $15.82 $16.36 $16.36 $16.09 $18.31 $16.43 $16.53

Oct $12.32 $18.70 $17.06 $12.82 $16.94 $18.03 $21.02 $18.22 $23.82 $15.46 $14.82 $16.69 $15.53 $18.72 $21.61 $17.83

Nov $12.84 $19.22 $15.51 $14.08 $15.44 $19.07 $20.83 $18.83 $21.94 $15.30 $16.76 $16.88 $14.44 $20.45 $23.34 $18.03

Dec $13.47 $20.60 $15.28 $14.98 $13.83 $18.77 $18.66 $18.95 $17.82 $14.44 $17.40 $15.44 $13.78 $19.37 $15.72 $18.36

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$20.38 $21.62 $16.37

$20.91 $21.00

$22.37 $20.67

$23.41 $20.26

$23.87 $20.32

$24.09 $20.00

$24.00 $19.60

$24.00 $19.40

$23.88 $19.20

$23.46 $17.01

$22.95 $17.01

$22.42 $17.01

$22.98 $19.43 $16.37

$24.09 $21.62 $16.37

$20.38 $17.01 $16.37

3-Year Average* $15.68 $15.55

3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

$15.81

$15.57

$15.83

$18.17

$19.53

$17.77

$17.09

$19.39

$20.61

$17.82

$17.40

$20.61

$15.55

$15.75

$16.15

$15.96

$16.38

$17.21

$17.55

$17.60

$16.53

$18.72

$20.45

$18.36

$17.23

$20.45

$15.75

5-Year Average* $15.56 $15.38

$16.04

$15.49

$15.28

$15.65

$17.23

$17.63

$16.97

$16.74

$18.08

$18.63

$16.53

$16.60

$18.63

$15.28

$15.51

$15.83

$15.79

$16.57

$17.30

$16.50

$16.71

$16.44

$17.98

$18.45

$16.51

$16.61

$18.45

$15.51

10-Year Average* $16.41 $16.28

$16.28

$16.35

$16.35

$17.11

$17.54

$17.59

$17.76

$18.37

$18.68

$16.99

$17.14

$18.68

$16.28

$15.71

$15.76

$16.10

$17.07

$17.09

$17.34

$17.15

$18.14

$18.63

$17.10

$16.83

$18.63

$15.71

$15.68

$16.15

$15.76

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class III prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

31

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 11B Class III Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Class III Prices -- 3-Year Average $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 $15.00 $13.00 $11.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Class III Ave. Price

Apr

May

Minimum 90% C.I.

Jun

Jul

Maximum 90% C.I.

Aug

Sep

Proj. 2022

Oct Proj. 2023

Nov

Dec

Proj. 2024

Class III Prices -- 5-Year Average $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 $15.00 $13.00 $11.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Class III Ave. Price

Apr

May

Minimum 90% C.I.

Jun

Jul

Maximum 90% C.I.

Aug

Sep

Proj. 2022

Oct Proj. 2023

Nov

Dec

Proj. 2024

Class III Prices -- 10-Year Average $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 $15.00 $13.00 $11.00

Jan

Feb

Class III Ave. Price

Mar

Apr Minimum 90% C.I.

May

Jun

Jul

Maximum 90% C.I.

32

Aug Proj. 2022

Sep

Oct Proj. 2023

Nov

Dec

Proj. 2024

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 12 PA Basis for Class III Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $2.71 $3.69 $2.81 $4.90 $2.61 $4.22 $3.09 $5.42 $3.88 $5.07 $3.76 $5.58 $2.56 $4.04 $3.43 $4.45 $3.30 $4.78 $2.68 $5.00 $2.32 $3.68 $2.49 $3.23 $2.25 $3.82 $2.20 $4.01 -$0.05 $3.15 $2.00 $3.94

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $2.91 $2.64 $3.28 $5.42 $3.50 $5.42 $3.85 $3.26 $3.75 $3.02 $3.68 $3.23 $3.00 $3.74 $3.15 $1.26

Feb $3.60 $2.32 $3.97 $4.19 $3.82 $3.70 $3.54 $3.85 $2.55 $2.84 $3.30 $2.72 $2.50 $4.01 $2.40 $1.65

Mar $3.69 $2.11 $1.10 $2.56 $4.22 $2.60 $3.28 $3.77 $3.37 $2.14 $2.56 $2.99 $1.78 $3.46 $2.65 $1.75

Apr $2.87 $1.91 $3.14 $2.62 $3.38 $4.63 $2.68 $2.49 $2.49 $1.79 $2.57 $2.38 $1.93 $2.34 $2.23 $0.73

May $2.67 $1.70 $1.32 $3.56 $3.52 $5.58 $2.67 $2.48 $3.63 $1.61 $3.14 $1.83 $1.52 $2.22 $1.86 $0.34

Jun $2.21 $1.13 $0.05 $2.93 $3.88 $3.79 $1.87 $2.98 $3.74 $1.38 $2.58 $1.76 $1.79 $2.53 -$4.74 $1.89

Jul $2.58 $2.02 $3.16 $3.03 $4.36 $2.11 $1.32 $3.32 $3.80 $1.27 $1.66 $3.15 $2.10 $1.55 -$5.24 $2.01

Aug $2.74 $3.97 $3.18 $2.10 $3.32 $2.65 $1.17 $3.09 $4.05 $1.33 $0.59 $2.63 $1.45 $1.80 -$1.67 $2.45

Sep $1.81 $3.73 $4.22 $2.09 $3.34 $4.73 $1.80 $3.56 $2.80 $3.08 $1.54 $2.64 $1.01 $1.29 $1.57 $2.47

Oct $2.88 $4.90 $2.34 $2.98 $3.36 $4.17 $1.78 $3.78 $2.28 $3.94 $2.88 $1.91 $2.57 $1.38 -$2.81 $2.07

Nov $2.56 $4.68 $3.69 $2.72 $4.76 $3.13 $2.77 $4.17 $2.36 $5.00 $1.34 $1.82 $3.56 $0.55 -$3.14 $3.47

Dec $2.03 $2.60 $1.82 $2.92 $5.07 $2.63 $4.04 $4.45 $4.78 $4.76 $2.00 $2.76 $3.82 $1.53 $3.08 $3.94

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$4.42 $2.50 $2.50

$3.00 $2.25 $2.25

$2.75 $2.00 $2.00

$2.25 $2.00 $2.00

$2.25 $1.75 $1.75

$2.00 $1.50 $1.50

$2.00 $1.50 $1.50

$2.00 $1.50 $1.50

$2.00 $2.25 $2.50

$2.25 $1.75 $1.75

$2.50 $1.75 $1.75

$3.50 $2.00 $2.75

$2.58 $1.90 $1.98

$4.42 $2.50 $2.75

$2.00 $1.50 $1.50

3-Year Average* $2.72 $2.69

3-Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

Low $1.81 $1.13 $0.05 $2.09 $3.32 $2.11 $1.17 $2.48 $2.28 $1.27 $0.59 $1.76 $1.01 $0.55 -$5.24 $0.34

$2.62

$1.77

$1.47

-$0.11

-$0.56

$0.86

$1.78

$0.21

$0.29

$2.85

$1.38

$2.85

-$0.56

$2.40

$2.65

$2.23

$1.86

$1.89

$1.55

$1.80

$1.57

$1.38

$0.55

$3.08

$2.01

$3.15

$0.55

5-Year Average* $2.88 $2.66

$2.53

$1.92

$1.55

$0.65

$0.71

$1.33

$1.80

$1.02

$1.25

$3.03

$1.78

$3.03

$0.65

$2.47

$2.17

$1.74

$1.81

$1.89

$1.90

$1.78

$1.79

$1.95

$3.22

$2.20

$3.22

$1.74

$2.78 $ $2.78

$2.16 $ $2.28

$2.13 $ $2.17

$1.58 $ $2.10

$1.49 $ $2.05

$1.69 $ $1.81

$2.18 $ $2.15

$1.98 $ $2.33

$2.19 $ $2.51

$3.52 $ $3.61

$2.32

$3.52

$1.49

$2.51

$3.61

$1.81

$3.15

$3.13

$2.54

10-Year Average* $3.19 $2.94 $ $ $3.35

$2.96

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class III basis after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

33

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 13A Class IV Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $11.06 $12.30 $18.36 $21.87 $14.65 $16.64 $10.89 $15.01 $15.06 $17.15 $19.04 $21.05 $16.01 $18.66 $19.05 $21.54 $22.09 $23.89 $14.35 $16.89 $13.77 $14.97 $15.16 $16.61 $14.23 $15.09 $16.30 $16.90 $13.49 $16.65 $16.09 $19.88

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $12.20 $12.53 $16.29 $9.59 $13.85 $16.42 $16.56 $17.63 $22.29 $13.23 $13.31 $16.19 $13.13 $15.48 $16.65 $13.75

Feb $11.10 $12.71 $14.67 $9.45 $12.90 $18.40 $15.92 $17.75 $23.46 $13.82 $13.49 $15.59 $12.87 $15.86 $16.20 $13.19

Mar $10.68 $13.71 $14.17 $9.64 $12.92 $19.41 $15.35 $17.75 $23.66 $13.80 $12.74 $14.32 $13.04 $15.71 $14.87 $14.18

Apr $10.36 $16.12 $14.56 $9.82 $13.73 $19.78 $14.80 $18.10 $23.34 $13.51 $12.68 $14.01 $13.48 $15.72 $11.40 $15.42

May $10.33 $18.48 $15.26 $10.14 $15.29 $20.29 $13.55 $18.89 $22.65 $13.91 $13.09 $14.49 $14.57 $16.29 $10.67 $16.16

Jun $10.22 $20.76 $15.92 $10.22 $15.45 $21.05 $13.24 $18.88 $23.13 $13.90 $13.77 $15.89 $14.91 $16.83 $12.90 $16.35

Jul $10.21 $21.64 $16.60 $10.15 $15.75 $20.33 $14.45 $18.90 $23.78 $13.15 $14.84 $16.60 $14.14 $16.90 $13.76 $16.00

Aug $10.64 $21.87 $16.64 $10.38 $15.18 $20.14 $15.76 $19.07 $23.89 $12.90 $14.65 $16.61 $14.63 $16.74 $12.53 $15.92

Sep $11.10 $21.61 $15.45 $11.15 $16.76 $19.53 $17.41 $19.43 $22.58 $15.08 $14.25 $15.86 $14.81 $16.35 $12.75 $16.36

Oct $11.51 $21.31 $13.62 $11.86 $17.15 $18.41 $18.54 $20.17 $21.35 $16.43 $13.66 $14.85 $15.01 $16.39 $13.47 $17.04

Nov $12.11 $20.40 $12.25 $13.25 $16.68 $17.87 $18.66 $20.52 $18.21 $16.89 $13.76 $13.99 $15.06 $16.60 $13.30 $18.79

Dec $12.30 $19.18 $10.35 $15.01 $15.03 $16.87 $17.83 $21.54 $16.70 $15.52 $14.97 $13.51 $15.09 $16.70 $13.36 $19.88

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$23.09 $22.50 $18.70

$24.00 $21.85 $18.15

$24.80 $21.32

$25.05 $20.80

$25.15 $20.05

$24.97 $19.73

$24.90 $19.65

$25.00 $19.20

$24.70 $19.20

$24.25 $18.70

$23.90 $18.70

$23.40 $18.70

$24.43 $20.03 $18.43

$25.15 $22.50 $18.70

$23.09 $18.70 $18.15

$14.92 $ $14.87

$14.18 $ $15.42

$14.37 $ $16.16

$15.36 $ $16.35

$15.55 $ $16.00

$15.06 $ $15.92

$15.15 $ $16.35

$15.63 $ $16.39

$16.23 $ $16.60

$16.65 $ $16.70

$15.29

$16.65

$14.18

$16.01

$16.70

$14.87

$14.42 $ $14.46

$14.01 $ $14.30

$14.44 $ $15.07

$15.38 $ $15.72

$15.48 $ $15.58

$15.29 $ $15.72

$15.23 $ $15.67

$15.35 $ $15.42

$15.55 $ $15.22

$15.71 $ $15.10

$15.05

$15.71

$14.01

$15.19

$15.72

$14.30

$15.54 $ $14.88

$15.25 $ $14.72

$15.43 $ $15.12

$15.98 $ $15.47

$16.25 $ $15.70

$16.27 $ $15.79

$16.49 $ $16.19

$16.69 $ $16.51

$16.58 $ $16.50

$16.51 $ $16.28

$16.05

$16.69

$15.25

$15.64

$16.51

$14.72

3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

3-Year Average* $15.29 $15.08 $ $ $15.48

$15.86

5-Year Average* $15.04 $14.74 $ $ $15.14

$14.88

10-Year Average* $15.82 $15.82 $ $ $15.35

$15.23

Low $10.21 $12.53 $10.35 $9.45 $12.90 $16.42 $13.24 $17.63 $16.70 $12.90 $12.68 $13.51 $12.87 $15.48 $10.67 $13.19

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class IV prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

34

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 13B Class IV Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Class IV Prices -- 3-Year Average $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Class IV Ave. Price

Apr

May

Minimum 90% C.I.

Jun

Jul

Maximum 90% C.I.

Aug

Sep

Proj. 2022

Oct Proj. 2023

Nov

Dec Proj. 2024

Class IV Prices -- 5-Year Average $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Class IV Ave. Price

Apr

May

Minimum 90% C.I.

Jun

Jul

Maximum 90% C.I.

Aug

Sep

Proj. 2022

Oct Proj. 2023

Nov

Dec

Proj. 2024

Class IV Prices -- 10-Year Average $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00

Jan

Feb

Class IV Ave. Price

Mar

Apr Minimum 90% C.I.

May

Jun

Jul

Maximum 90% C.I.

35

Aug Proj. 2022

Sep

Oct Proj. 2023

Nov

Dec

Proj. 2024

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Exhibit 14 PA Basis for Class IV Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $3.54 $4.70 $2.49 $4.02 $5.39 $6.95 $3.56 $6.61 $3.23 $5.20 $3.08 $4.53 $4.00 $4.94 $2.37 $3.77 $3.56 $6.09 $4.13 $5.97 $3.42 $4.43 $3.50 $4.71 $2.64 $3.87 $2.86 $4.40 $4.62 $6.90 $3.00 $4.21

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $4.10 $3.67 $6.31 $6.61 $4.15 $2.48 $4.34 $3.77 $2.61 $5.97 $4.09 $3.81 $3.87 $2.22 $3.55 $3.55

Feb $4.70 $3.79 $6.33 $4.05 $5.20 $2.30 $3.68 $3.35 $2.44 $4.48 $3.61 $4.01 $3.03 $2.04 $3.20 $4.21

Mar $4.12 $3.49 $4.93 $3.36 $4.08 $2.59 $3.65 $2.95 $3.04 $3.90 $3.56 $4.48 $2.96 $2.79 $4.03 $3.72

Apr $3.44 $1.88 $5.34 $3.58 $2.57 $1.72 $3.60 $1.98 $3.46 $4.09 $3.52 $3.59 $2.92 $2.58 $3.90 $2.98

May $3.17 $0.82 $4.24 $3.26 $1.61 $1.81 $4.35 $2.11 $3.55 $3.89 $2.81 $2.91 $2.13 $2.31 $3.33 $3.14

Jun $3.28 $0.54 $4.38 $2.68 $2.05 $1.85 $4.26 $2.12 $1.97 $4.20 $2.03 $2.31 $2.09 $1.97 $3.40 $2.75

Jul $3.29 $1.76 $4.80 $2.85 $2.35 $3.17 $3.55 $1.80 $1.62 $4.45 $2.06 $2.00 $2.06 $2.20 $5.54 $2.50

Aug $3.16 $1.93 $3.86 $2.92 $3.32 $4.06 $3.14 $1.93 $2.41 $4.70 $2.85 $2.59 $1.77 $2.66 $5.57 $2.48

Sep $3.00 $2.19 $5.05 $3.05 $2.84 $4.27 $3.39 $2.27 $4.82 $3.82 $3.65 $3.14 $2.29 $3.25 $5.25 $2.64

Oct $3.69 $2.29 $5.78 $3.94 $3.15 $3.79 $4.26 $1.83 $4.75 $2.97 $4.04 $3.75 $3.09 $3.71 $5.33 $2.86

Nov $3.29 $3.50 $6.95 $3.55 $3.52 $4.33 $4.94 $2.48 $6.09 $3.41 $4.34 $4.71 $2.94 $4.40 $6.90 $2.71

Dec $3.20 $4.02 $6.75 $2.89 $3.87 $4.53 $4.87 $1.86 $5.90 $3.68 $4.43 $4.69 $2.51 $4.20 $5.44 $2.42

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$1.71 $1.62 $0.17

-$0.09 $1.40 $0.00

$0.32 $1.35 $0.00

$0.61 $1.46 $0.00

$0.97 $2.02 $0.00

$1.12 $1.77 $0.00

$1.10 $1.45 $0.00

$1.00 $1.70 $0.00

$1.18 $2.25 $0.00

$1.46 $0.06 $0.00

$1.55 $0.06 $0.00

$2.52 $0.31 $0.00

$1.12 $1.29 $0.01

$2.52 $2.25 $0.17

-$0.09 $0.06 $0.00

3-Year Average* $3.11 $3.15

3-Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

Low $3.00 $0.54 $3.86 $2.68 $1.61 $1.72 $3.14 $1.80 $1.62 $2.97 $2.03 $2.00 $1.77 $1.97 $3.20 $2.42

$3.51

$3.15

$2.93

$2.71

$3.41

$3.57

$3.71

$3.97

$4.67

$4.02

$3.49

$4.67

$2.71

$3.20

$3.72

$2.98

$3.14

$2.75

$2.50

$2.66

$3.25

$3.71

$4.40

$4.20

$3.34

$4.40

$2.50

5-Year Average* $3.40 $3.30

$3.60

$3.19

$2.76

$2.50

$2.86

$3.01

$3.31

$3.75

$4.33

$3.85

$3.32

$4.33

$2.50

$3.57

$3.16

$2.79

$2.38

$2.25

$2.58

$3.01

$3.52

$4.02

$3.80

$3.18

$4.02

$2.25

$3.51 $ $3.48

$3.26 $ $3.32

$3.05 $ $3.01

$2.71 $ $2.61

$2.78 $ $2.58

$3.01 $ $2.85

$3.45 $ $3.38

$3.66 $ $3.68

$4.29 $ $4.19

$4.00 $ $4.03

$3.41

$4.29

$2.71

$3.35

$4.19

$2.58

$3.55

$3.64

$3.41

10-Year Average* $3.78 $3.41 $ $ $3.70

$3.44

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class IV Basis after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

36

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Table 15 Cheese Price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $1.2470 $1.3895 $1.1612 $1.7380 $2.0976 $1.3366 $1.8954 $2.1609 $1.7511 $1.2966 $1.5969 $1.1334 $1.5226 $1.7666 $1.3632 $1.8246 $2.1402 $1.4076 $1.7076 $2.0479 $1.5215 $1.7683 $1.8761 $1.6467 $2.1551 $2.3547 $1.7362 $1.6454 $1.7386 $1.5446 $1.6050 $1.8119 $1.4104 $1.6344 $1.7617 $1.4960 $1.5377 $1.6533 $1.3742 $1.7595 $2.1723 $1.3868 $1.9276 $2.5873 $1.3049 $1.6755 $1.8206 $1.5680

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $1.3895 $1.3366 $1.9998 $1.2961 $1.5374 $1.4076 $1.6097 $1.7485 $2.0838 $1.5807 $1.5178 $1.7011 $1.5175 $1.3868 $1.8092 $1.6502

Feb $1.2637 $1.3454 $1.8403 $1.1518 $1.5110 $1.7449 $1.5410 $1.6623 $2.2864 $1.5446 $1.5170 $1.6871 $1.4727 $1.3940 $1.7884 $1.5954

Mar $1.1612 $1.3732 $1.9575 $1.2611 $1.3632 $1.9722 $1.5248 $1.6467 $2.2689 $1.5750 $1.5162 $1.5551 $1.5542 $1.5383 $1.7091 $1.5981

Apr $1.1654 $1.4296 $1.8164 $1.2771 $1.3827 $1.6983 $1.5361 $1.7310 $2.3547 $1.6122 $1.5041 $1.4960 $1.5737 $1.6468 $1.4026 $1.7106

May $1.1694 $1.5946 $1.9525 $1.1553 $1.4257 $1.6534 $1.5215 $1.8274 $2.1703 $1.6557 $1.4104 $1.5390 $1.6353 $1.6974 $1.3049 $1.8206

Jun $1.2166 $1.8561 $2.1609 $1.1466 $1.4475 $1.8999 $1.5846 $1.7810 $2.0358 $1.7222 $1.4477 $1.6293 $1.6150 $1.6768 $2.2566 $1.6439

Jul $1.1793 $2.0002 $1.9585 $1.1334 $1.4567 $2.1243 $1.6857 $1.7142 $2.0482 $1.6997 $1.6419 $1.5430 $1.4868 $1.8486 $2.5873 $1.5956

Aug $1.1813 $1.9100 $1.8699 $1.2605 $1.6031 $2.1402 $1.7682 $1.7731 $2.1074 $1.7386 $1.8119 $1.6664 $1.5544 $1.8276 $2.1099 $1.5680

Sep $1.2912 $2.0250 $1.7773 $1.3522 $1.7016 $1.8592 $1.8647 $1.7961 $2.3472 $1.7145 $1.7514 $1.6608 $1.6533 $1.9053 $1.7741 $1.6411

Oct $1.2721 $1.9227 $1.9065 $1.4110 $1.7666 $1.7471 $2.0479 $1.8025 $2.2914 $1.6790 $1.5830 $1.7254 $1.5686 $1.9694 $2.2921 $1.7698

Nov $1.3123 $1.9652 $1.7511 $1.5169 $1.6152 $1.8415 $2.0146 $1.8612 $2.1305 $1.6503 $1.7596 $1.7617 $1.4463 $2.1723 $2.4535 $1.7588

Dec $1.3624 $2.0976 $1.7544 $1.5969 $1.4606 $1.8070 $1.7925 $1.8761 $1.7362 $1.5719 $1.7990 $1.6481 $1.3742 $2.0509 $1.6433 $1.7542

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$1.8978 $2.1250 $1.6750

$1.9068 $2.0850 $1.6510

$2.0450 $2.0550

$2.1750 $2.0150

$2.2320 $2.0000

$2.2590 $1.9500

$2.2700 $1.8750

$2.2800 $1.8750

$2.2780 $1.8750

$2.2600 $1.7500

$2.2280 $1.7500

$2.1800 $1.6750

$2.1676 $1.9192 $1.6630

$2.2800 $2.1250 $1.6750

$1.8978 $1.6750 $1.6510

3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

3-Year Average* $1.6154 $1.5926

$1.6152

$1.5867

$1.6076

$1.8591

$2.0105

$1.8352

$1.7735

$2.0104

$2.1282

$1.8161

$1.7875

$2.1282

$1.5867

$1.5954

$1.5981

$1.6468

$1.6974

$1.6768

$1.8486

$1.8276

$1.7741

$1.9694

$2.1723

$1.7542

$1.7676

$2.1723

$1.5954

5-Year Average* $1.6130 $1.5875

$1.6502

$1.5910

$1.5659

$1.5994

$1.7643

$1.8123

$1.7453

$1.7269

$1.8651

$1.9185

$1.6941

$1.7069

$1.9185

$1.5659

$1.5851

$1.5691

$1.5722

$1.6239

$1.6500

$1.6624

$1.6873

$1.6961

$1.8215

$1.8976

$1.6819

$1.6725

$1.8976

$1.5691

10-Year Average* $1.6605 $1.6489

$1.6486

$1.6568

$1.6583

$1.7393

$1.7851

$1.7926

$1.8109

$1.8729

$1.9009

$1.7246

$1.7416

$1.9009

$1.6486

$1.5877

$1.6013

$1.6384

$1.7111

$1.7221

$1.7827

$1.7650

$1.8586

$1.8886

$1.7277

$1.7105

$1.8886

$1.5877

$1.6229

$1.6418

$1.6011

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Cheese prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

37

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Table 16 Butterfat price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $1.3252 $1.4684 $1.2228 $1.4693 $1.6457 $1.3009 $1.5668 $1.8507 $1.2998 $1.2571 $1.5433 $1.0941 $1.8535 $2.4436 $1.4404 $2.1560 $2.3702 $1.7743 $1.7230 $2.1136 $1.4462 $1.6634 $1.8227 $1.5104 $2.3792 $3.2467 $1.7874 $2.2954 $3.1830 $1.6855 $2.3084 $2.5964 $2.0493 $2.6143 $3.0109 $2.3548 $2.5258 $2.6692 $2.3490 $2.5088 $2.6858 $2.1952 $1.7067 $2.1117 $1.3218 $1.8904 $2.2919 $1.4376

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $1.4684 $1.3009 $1.3319 $1.1084 $1.4405 $2.0239 $1.7178 $1.6168 $1.7874 $1.6855 $2.3062 $2.5253 $2.4531 $2.4981 $2.1117 $1.5541

Feb $1.3469 $1.3112 $1.3010 $1.0941 $1.4404 $2.2967 $1.5739 $1.6619 $2.0109 $1.8296 $2.3778 $2.4274 $2.3490 $2.5345 $1.9813 $1.4376

Mar $1.2596 $1.3769 $1.3604 $1.1594 $1.5347 $2.2859 $1.5297 $1.7476 $2.0402 $1.8444 $2.2028 $2.4176 $2.4273 $2.5461 $1.9177 $1.7176

Apr $1.2343 $1.4657 $1.4748 $1.2049 $1.5813 $2.2113 $1.5645 $1.8227 $2.1207 $1.8940 $2.2376 $2.3548 $2.5113 $2.5375 $1.3218 $1.9496

May $1.2582 $1.5706 $1.5562 $1.2648 $1.7058 $2.2497 $1.4462 $1.7884 $2.2721 $2.0599 $2.2846 $2.4134 $2.6239 $2.5718 $1.3756 $1.9851

Jun $1.2436 $1.6457 $1.6160 $1.2544 $1.7234 $2.3702 $1.4866 $1.6599 $2.4413 $2.1011 $2.4109 $2.7066 $2.6692 $2.6579 $1.8591 $1.9641

Jul $1.2228 $1.6110 $1.6774 $1.2438 $1.8964 $2.2511 $1.6556 $1.5693 $2.6349 $2.1125 $2.5964 $2.9456 $2.5287 $2.6858 $1.9583 $1.8996

Aug $1.3008 $1.5872 $1.7413 $1.2491 $2.0336 $2.2985 $1.8339 $1.5104 $2.8448 $2.2674 $2.4873 $3.0109 $2.6009 $2.6574 $1.6275 $1.8508

Sep $1.4191 $1.5101 $1.8196 $1.2226 $2.4044 $2.2005 $2.0047 $1.5196 $3.2467 $2.7531 $2.3082 $2.8559 $2.5442 $2.4982 $1.5932 $1.9388

Oct $1.4149 $1.4092 $1.8507 $1.2752 $2.4436 $1.9592 $2.1136 $1.6638 $2.8507 $2.9087 $2.0493 $2.6646 $2.5551 $2.4031 $1.6388 $1.9414

Nov $1.3852 $1.4077 $1.7730 $1.4656 $2.2422 $1.9508 $2.0218 $1.6336 $2.2011 $3.1830 $2.1044 $2.5546 $2.5385 $2.3195 $1.5553 $2.1541

Dec $1.3481 $1.4348 $1.2998 $1.5433 $1.7952 $1.7743 $1.7276 $1.7672 $2.0991 $2.9057 $2.3354 $2.4951 $2.5080 $2.1952 $1.5399 $2.2919

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$2.9567 $2.6987 $2.4998

$3.0218 $2.5809 $2.4362

$3.0560 $2.5773

$3.0484 $2.4998

$3.0148 $2.5004

$3.0003 $2.4989

$2.9957 $2.4998

$3.0045 $2.4998

$3.0045 $2.4998

$2.9833 $2.4998

$2.9406 $2.4998

$2.8440 $2.4998

$2.9892 $2.5296 $2.4680

$3.0560 $2.6987 $2.4998

$2.8440 $2.4989 $2.4362

3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

3-Year Average* $2.0546 $1.9845

$2.0605

$1.9363

$1.9775

$2.1604

$2.1812

$2.0452

$2.0101

$1.9944

$2.0096

$2.0090

$2.0353

$2.1812

$1.9363

$1.9813

$1.9177

$1.9496

$1.9851

$1.9641

$1.9583

$1.8508

$1.9388

$1.9414

$2.1541

$2.1952

$1.9957

$2.1952

$1.8508

5-Year Average* $2.2285 $2.1460

$2.1117

$2.2053

$2.1350

$2.1940

$2.3714

$2.4036

$2.3495

$2.2861

$2.2406

$2.2244

$2.2060

$2.2492

$2.4036

$2.1350

$2.2526

$2.2542

$2.2719

$2.3234

$2.4304

$2.3909

$2.3697

$2.3271

$2.2999

$2.3374

$2.3274

$2.3283

$2.4304

$2.2526

10-Year Average* $2.0256 $2.0184

$2.0391

$2.0315

$2.0821

$2.1957

$2.2587

$2.2691

$2.3263

$2.2789

$2.2266

$2.1865

$2.1615

$2.3263

$2.0184

$2.0394

$2.0569

$2.1027

$2.2204

$2.2590

$2.2713

$2.3120

$2.2802

$2.1910

$2.1774

$2.1632

$2.3120

$2.0221

$2.3543

$2.0221

$2.0265

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Butterfat prices after the date of outlook are Projected/Futures Prices . The Protected/Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

38

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Table 17 Protein price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $2.0912 $2.4388 $1.8836 $3.5158 $4.7061 $2.4125 $3.8898 $4.7193 $3.1301 $2.2087 $2.8751 $1.6970 $2.3091 $2.7916 $2.0515 $2.9663 $3.8305 $1.7590 $3.0426 $3.7278 $2.6568 $3.3010 $3.6316 $2.8204 $3.7935 $4.7089 $2.7387 $2.2393 $2.6915 $1.3205 $2.0955 $2.8085 $1.4807 $1.8682 $2.3412 $1.2248 $1.6500 $2.0029 $1.1417 $2.3796 $3.9118 $1.1776 $3.7559 $5.6294 $2.0918 $2.7630 $3.1307 $2.4582

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $2.3994 $2.4503 $4.4994 $2.3638 $2.7916 $1.7590 $2.7326 $3.2862 $4.1870 $2.6731 $1.8169 $2.1768 $1.6612 $1.1927 $2.9606 $3.0355

Feb $2.1220 $2.4125 $4.0180 $1.9139 $2.7066 $2.5586 $2.6627 $2.9609 $4.6044 $2.4051 $1.7389 $2.2348 $1.6265 $1.1776 $3.0309 $2.9816

Mar $1.8836 $2.4329 $4.3331 $2.1973 $2.1311 $3.3024 $2.6571 $2.8204 $4.5172 $2.4875 $1.9206 $1.8198 $1.8066 $1.6303 $2.8424 $2.6954

Apr $1.9238 $2.5212 $3.7579 $2.2009 $2.1449 $2.4984 $2.6568 $3.0130 $4.7089 $2.5551 $1.8450 $1.6955 $1.7810 $1.9890 $2.4822 $2.8136

May $1.9115 $2.9424 $4.1108 $1.7454 $2.1523 $2.3133 $2.7344 $3.3597 $3.9553 $2.5206 $1.4935 $1.7723 $1.8609 $2.1159 $2.0918 $3.1307

Jun $2.0790 $3.7059 $4.7193 $1.7283 $2.2040 $2.9807 $2.8952 $3.3455 $3.3437 $2.6915 $1.4807 $1.7545 $1.7478 $2.0046 $4.5349 $2.5834

Jul $1.9807 $4.2068 $4.0025 $1.6970 $2.0515 $3.8292 $3.0430 $3.2257 $3.1798 $2.6070 $1.9112 $1.2248 $1.4868 $2.4032 $5.6294 $2.4957

Aug $1.9050 $3.9412 $3.6497 $2.1009 $2.3788 $3.8305 $3.1211 $3.4775 $3.1496 $2.5692 $2.5738 $1.5536 $1.6245 $2.4453 $4.4394 $2.4582

Sep $2.1346 $4.3929 $3.2689 $2.4243 $2.3057 $3.0282 $3.2521 $3.5419 $3.4991 $1.9801 $2.5675 $1.6988 $2.0029 $2.8633 $3.3935 $2.6010

Oct $2.0775 $4.1695 $3.5490 $2.5584 $2.4739 $2.9211 $3.7278 $3.4107 $3.7362 $1.7019 $2.2975 $2.1084 $1.7185 $3.1700 $5.0146 $3.0130

Nov $2.2383 $4.3081 $3.1301 $2.6991 $2.1981 $3.2341 $3.7172 $3.6316 $3.9018 $1.3205 $2.8085 $2.3412 $1.3419 $3.9118 $5.6226 $2.7536

Dec $2.4388 $4.7061 $3.6390 $2.8751 $2.1706 $3.3404 $3.3113 $3.5390 $2.7387 $1.3599 $2.6922 $2.0378 $1.1417 $3.6515 $3.0282 $2.5937

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$2.3563 $3.6917 $2.4511

$2.3168 $3.6868 $2.4407

$3.0577 $3.5939

$3.4846 $3.5467

$3.7036 $3.4977

$3.8059 $3.3382

$3.8461 $3.0955

$3.8691 $3.0955

$3.8627 $3.0955

$3.8270 $2.6928

$3.7688 $2.6928

$3.7159 $2.4511

$3.4679 $3.2065 $2.4459

$3.8691 $3.6917 $2.4511

$2.3168 $2.4511 $2.4407

3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

3-Year Average* $2.3963 $2.3967

$2.3894

$2.4283

$2.4461

$3.0410

$3.5094

$3.1143

$2.9526

$3.7325

$4.0960

$3.0911

$2.9661

$4.0960

$2.3894

$2.9816

$2.6954

$2.4822

$2.1159

$2.5834

$2.4957

$2.4582

$2.8633

$3.1700

$3.9118

$3.0282

$2.8122

$3.9118

$2.1159

5-Year Average* $2.2054 $2.2103

$2.9606

$2.1589

$2.1523

$2.1943

$2.5250

$2.6480

$2.5042

$2.5119

$3.0049

$3.1942

$2.4906

$2.4833

$3.1942

$2.1523

$2.2810

$2.1073

$2.0841

$2.0229

$2.1142

$2.1286

$2.1760

$2.4891

$2.7638

$3.0022

$2.5532

$2.3324

$3.0022

$2.0229

10-Year Average* $2.5723 $2.5423

$2.5197

$2.5540

$2.5035

$2.6382

$2.7207

$2.7412

$2.7400

$2.9899

$3.1351

$2.6094

$2.6889

$3.1351

$2.5035

$2.3812

$2.3920

$2.4483

$2.5458

$2.5441

$2.6774

$2.7699

$2.8978

$3.0510

$2.6626

$2.6140

$3.0510

$2.3812

$2.2662

$2.5429

$2.4552

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class III prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

39

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Table 18 Other Solids price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $0.1881 $0.3183 $0.2097 ($0.0304) $0.1946 $0.2002 $0.5032 $0.4647 $0.4155 $0.4001 $0.0371 $0.2503 $0.0787 $0.2898 $0.1417 $0.2682

Feb Mar Apr May $0.1999 $0.1874 $0.1508 $0.1251 $0.4170 $0.5257 $0.6008 $0.5791 $0.0803 $0.0493 $0.0622 $0.0766 ($0.0437) ($0.0339) ($0.0043) $0.0336 $0.1992 $0.1823 $0.1702 $0.1704 $0.2310 $0.2665 $0.2902 $0.3026 $0.4541 $0.4239 $0.4048 $0.3500 $0.4534 $0.4179 $0.3863 $0.3887 $0.4453 $0.4700 $0.4926 $0.4897 $0.3273 $0.2918 $0.4610 $0.2533 $0.0492 $0.0501 $0.0489 $0.0529 $0.2990 $0.3345 $0.3350 $0.3196 $0.0550 $0.0556 $0.0619 $0.0742 $0.2631 $0.2200 $0.1190 $0.1847 $0.1750 $0.1810 $0.1793 $0.1882 $0.3161 $0.3652 $0.4268 $0.4645

Jun $0.1255 $0.5831 $0.0826 $0.0723 $0.1748 $0.3339 $0.3113 $0.3859 $0.4942 $0.2322 $0.0628 $0.3014 $0.1128 $0.1702 $0.1696 $0.4579

Jul $0.1257 $0.5534 $0.0707 $0.0949 $0.1700 $0.3608 $0.3123 $0.3927 $0.5046 $0.2004 $0.0774 $0.2599 $0.1422 $0.1689 $0.1492 $0.4181

Aug $0.1416 $0.4368 $0.0529 $0.0962 $0.1647 $0.3811 $0.3462 $0.3901 $0.5036 $0.1151 $0.0881 $0.2425 $0.1741 $0.1730 $0.1387 $0.3735

Sep $0.1649 $0.2890 $0.0234 $0.1018 $0.1673 $0.4053 $0.3971 $0.3914 $0.4876 $0.0465 $0.1096 $0.2241 $0.2098 $0.1758 $0.1241 $0.3445

Oct $0.2026 $0.2286 ($0.0047) $0.1228 $0.1736 $0.4286 $0.4340 $0.3852 $0.4670 $0.0328 $0.1351 $0.1853 $0.2553 $0.1447 $0.1534 $0.3560

Average Nov Dec $0.2276 $0.2564 $0.1746 $0.2461 $0.2637 $0.4201 ($0.0099) ($0.0269) $0.0555 $0.1524 $0.1727 $0.0612 $0.1797 $0.1852 $0.1777 $0.4521 $0.4683 $0.3434 $0.4624 $0.4758 $0.4063 $0.3955 $0.3826 $0.4029 $0.4505 $0.3996 $0.4684 $0.0361 $0.0355 $0.2027 $0.1750 $0.2063 $0.0910 $0.1644 $0.1070 $0.2519 $0.2714 $0.2775 $0.1474 $0.1112 $0.1341 $0.1795 $0.1894 $0.2245 $0.1678 $0.3949 $0.4532 $0.3866

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$0.2682 $0.4080 $0.2085

$0.3161 $0.2896 $0.1881

3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

3-Year Average* $0.2332 $0.2514

Yearly Ranges High Low $0.2564 $0.1251 $0.6008 $0.2286 $0.2097 ($0.0269) $0.1727 ($0.0437) $0.1992 $0.1647 $0.4683 $0.2002 $0.5032 $0.3113 $0.4647 $0.3826 $0.5046 $0.3996 $0.4610 $0.0328 $0.2063 $0.0371 $0.3350 $0.1070 $0.2775 $0.0550 $0.2898 $0.1112 $0.2245 $0.1241 $0.4645 $0.2682

$0.6097 $0.2893

$0.5803 $0.2275

$0.5494 $0.2275

$0.5340 $0.2419

$0.5262 $0.2741

$0.5262 $0.2085

$0.4979 $0.2085

$0.4747 $0.2085

$0.4593 $0.2085

$0.4438 $0.2085

$0.4822 $0.2500 $0.1983

$0.6097 $0.4080 $0.2085

$0.2682 $0.2085 $0.1881

$0.2554

$0.2417

$0.2791

$0.2659

$0.2454

$0.2284

$0.2148

$0.2180

$0.2318

$0.2706

$0.2447

$0.2791

$0.2148

$0.2631

$0.2200

$0.1793

$0.1882

$0.1702

$0.1689

$0.1730

$0.1758

$0.1534

$0.1894

$0.2245

$0.1978

$0.2682

$0.1534

5-Year Average* $0.2057 $0.2216

$0.2682

$0.2313

$0.2244

$0.2462

$0.2424

$0.2277

$0.2204

$0.2157

$0.2189

$0.2263

$0.2393

$0.2267

$0.2462

$0.2057

$0.2457

$0.2452

$0.2111

$0.2308

$0.2137

$0.1927

$0.1965

$0.2032

$0.1980

$0.2084

$0.2120

$0.2148

$0.2457

$0.1927

10-Year Average* $0.2849 $0.2838

$0.2810

$0.2916

$0.2766

$0.2698

$0.2626

$0.2545

$0.2511

$0.2549

$0.2651

$0.2696

$0.2704

$0.2916

$0.2511

$0.2862

$0.2968

$0.2779

$0.2677

$0.2555

$0.2442

$0.2471

$0.2561

$0.2690

$0.2731

$0.2712

$0.2968

$0.2442

$0.2201

$0.2886

$0.2918

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Other solids prices after the date of outlook are Projected/Futures Prices . The Projected/Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

40

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Table 19 Butter price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $1.2193 $1.3387 $1.1340 $1.3442 $1.4916 $1.1991 $1.4356 $1.6997 $1.2044 $1.2096 $1.4459 $1.0750 $1.7020 $2.1893 $1.3609 $1.9649 $2.1287 $1.6119 $1.5943 $1.9168 $1.3657 $1.5451 $1.6766 $1.4187 $2.1361 $2.8525 $1.6475 $2.0673 $2.7999 $1.5633 $2.0777 $2.3155 $1.8637 $2.3303 $2.6578 $2.1160 $2.2572 $2.3756 $2.1112 $2.2431 $2.3893 $1.9842 $1.5808 $1.9153 $1.2630 $1.7325 $2.0641 $1.3586

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $1.3387 $1.1991 $1.2301 $1.0868 $1.3610 $2.0239 $1.5900 $1.5066 $1.6475 $1.5633 $2.0759 $2.2568 $2.1972 $2.2343 $1.9153 $1.4548

Feb $1.2374 $1.2129 $1.2044 $1.0750 $1.3609 $2.0680 $1.4712 $1.5438 $1.8320 $1.6823 $2.1350 $2.1760 $2.1112 $2.2644 $1.8076 $1.3586

Mar $1.1647 $1.2676 $1.2539 $1.1289 $1.4388 $2.0591 $1.4347 $1.6146 $1.8562 $1.6945 $1.9905 $2.1679 $2.1759 $2.2740 $1.7551 $1.5898

Apr $1.1436 $1.3416 $1.3492 $1.1665 $1.4773 $1.9975 $1.4634 $1.6766 $1.9227 $1.7355 $2.0192 $2.1160 $2.2452 $2.2669 $1.2630 $1.7814

May $1.1635 $1.4290 $1.4170 $1.2159 $1.5801 $2.0292 $1.3657 $1.6483 $2.0477 $1.8725 $2.0580 $2.1644 $2.3382 $2.2952 $1.3074 $1.8107

Jun $1.1513 $1.4916 $1.4669 $1.2073 $1.5946 $2.1287 $1.3991 $1.5422 $2.1874 $1.9065 $2.1623 $2.4065 $2.3756 $2.3663 $1.7067 $1.7934

Jul $1.1340 $1.4627 $1.5180 $1.1986 $1.7375 $2.0304 $1.5386 $1.4674 $2.3473 $1.9159 $2.3155 $2.6039 $2.2596 $2.3893 $1.7886 $1.7401

Aug $1.1990 $1.4429 $1.5713 $1.2030 $1.8508 $2.0695 $1.6859 $1.4187 $2.5206 $2.0438 $2.2254 $2.6578 $2.3192 $2.3659 $1.5154 $1.6998

Sep $1.2976 $1.3789 $1.6365 $1.1811 $2.1570 $1.9886 $1.8269 $1.4263 $2.8525 $2.4490 $2.0775 $2.5298 $2.2724 $2.2344 $1.4871 $1.7725

Oct $1.2941 $1.2945 $1.6997 $1.2245 $2.1893 $1.7893 $1.9168 $1.5454 $2.5255 $2.5734 $1.8637 $2.3718 $2.2814 $2.1559 $1.5248 $1.7746

Nov $1.2693 $1.2933 $1.6356 $1.3817 $2.0230 $1.7824 $1.8410 $1.5205 $1.9891 $2.7999 $1.9092 $2.2810 $2.2677 $2.0869 $1.4558 $1.9503

Dec $1.2384 $1.3159 $1.2448 $1.4459 $1.6539 $1.6119 $1.5981 $1.6308 $1.9049 $2.5709 $2.1000 $2.2319 $2.2425 $1.9842 $1.4431 $2.0641

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$2.6130 $2.4000 $2.2358

$2.6668 $2.3028 $2.1833

$2.6950 $2.2998

$2.6888 $2.2358

$2.6610 $2.2363

$2.6490 $2.2350

$2.6453 $2.2358

$2.6525 $2.2358

$2.6525 $2.2358

$2.6350 $2.2358

$2.5998 $2.2358

$2.5200 $2.2358

$2.6399 $2.2603 $2.2095

$2.6950 $2.4000 $2.2358

$2.5200 $2.2350 $2.1833

3 Yr. Ave.

3-Year Average* $1.8681 $1.8102

Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

$1.8730

$1.7704

$1.8044

$1.9555

$1.9727

$1.8604

$1.8313

$1.8184

$1.8310

$1.8305

$1.8522

$1.9727

$1.7704

$1.8076

$1.7551

$1.7814

$1.8107

$1.7934

$1.7886

$1.6998

$1.7725

$1.7746

$1.9503

$1.9842

$1.8195

$1.9842

$1.6998

5-Year Average* $2.0117 $1.9436

$1.9153

$1.9925

$1.9345

$1.9832

$2.1297

$2.1563

$2.1116

$2.0592

$2.0217

$2.0083

$1.9932

$2.0288

$2.1563

$1.9345

$2.0316

$2.0330

$2.0475

$2.0901

$2.1784

$2.1458

$2.1283

$2.0931

$2.0706

$2.1016

$2.0934

$2.0941

$2.1784

$2.0316

10-Year Average* $1.8442 $1.8382

$1.8553

$1.8490

$1.8908

$1.9846

$2.0366

$2.0453

$2.0928

$2.0533

$2.0101

$1.9771

$1.9564

$2.0928

$1.8382

$1.8556

$1.8700

$1.9078

$2.0051

$2.0369

$2.0470

$2.0812

$2.0544

$1.9807

$1.9696

$1.9579

$2.0812

$1.8413

$2.1156

$1.8413

$1.8449

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Butter prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

41

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook

Table 20 Dry whey price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $0.3285 $0.4079 $0.2805 $0.6004 $0.7789 $0.4175 $0.2504 $0.3992 $0.1730 $0.2585 $0.3668 $0.1567 $0.3716 $0.3925 $0.3590 $0.5325 $0.6538 $0.3935 $0.5935 $0.6876 $0.5013 $0.5902 $0.6503 $0.5706 $0.6538 $0.6890 $0.5871 $0.3804 $0.5875 $0.2309 $0.2875 $0.3994 $0.2351 $0.4437 $0.5243 $0.3030 $0.3422 $0.4685 $0.2525 $0.3799 $0.4805 $0.3071 $0.3621 $0.4171 $0.3196 $0.5744 $0.6501 $0.4595

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Jan $0.3416 $0.4680 $0.3992 $0.1696 $0.3880 $0.3935 $0.6876 $0.6503 $0.6025 $0.5875 $0.2351 $0.4421 $0.2755 $0.4805 $0.3367 $0.4595

Feb $0.3531 $0.6005 $0.2736 $0.1567 $0.3925 $0.4234 $0.6400 $0.6393 $0.6314 $0.5169 $0.2469 $0.4894 $0.2525 $0.4545 $0.3690 $0.5060

Mar $0.3409 $0.7060 $0.2435 $0.1662 $0.3761 $0.4578 $0.6107 $0.6048 $0.6554 $0.4824 $0.2477 $0.5239 $0.2531 $0.4127 $0.3748 $0.5537

Apr $0.3054 $0.7789 $0.2560 $0.1949 $0.3643 $0.4808 $0.5921 $0.5741 $0.6774 $0.4610 $0.2466 $0.5243 $0.2592 $0.3923 $0.3732 $0.6135

May $0.2805 $0.7578 $0.2700 $0.2317 $0.3645 $0.4929 $0.5389 $0.5765 $0.6745 $0.4450 $0.2505 $0.5094 $0.2711 $0.3784 $0.3818 $0.6501

Jun $0.2808 $0.7617 $0.2758 $0.2693 $0.3688 $0.5233 $0.5013 $0.5738 $0.6789 $0.4245 $0.2601 $0.4917 $0.3086 $0.3643 $0.3638 $0.6437

Jul $0.2810 $0.7329 $0.2642 $0.2912 $0.3641 $0.5494 $0.5023 $0.5804 $0.6890 $0.3937 $0.2742 $0.4514 $0.3372 $0.3631 $0.3440 $0.6050

Aug $0.2965 $0.6197 $0.2470 $0.2925 $0.3590 $0.5691 $0.5352 $0.5778 $0.6880 $0.3108 $0.2846 $0.4345 $0.3681 $0.3671 $0.3338 $0.5617

Sep $0.3191 $0.4762 $0.2183 $0.2979 $0.3615 $0.5926 $0.5846 $0.5791 $0.6725 $0.2442 $0.3055 $0.4167 $0.4028 $0.3698 $0.3196 $0.5336

Oct $0.3557 $0.4175 $0.1945 $0.3183 $0.3676 $0.6152 $0.6205 $0.5731 $0.6525 $0.2309 $0.3303 $0.3790 $0.4470 $0.3396 $0.3480 $0.5447

Nov $0.3800 $0.4345 $0.1895 $0.3471 $0.3736 $0.6380 $0.6480 $0.5831 $0.6365 $0.2341 $0.3690 $0.3587 $0.4626 $0.3071 $0.3830 $0.5825

Dec $0.4079 $0.4516 $0.1730 $0.3668 $0.3789 $0.6538 $0.6610 $0.5706 $0.5871 $0.2336 $0.3994 $0.3030 $0.4685 $0.3293 $0.4171 $0.6391

Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024

$0.7087 $0.5953 $0.4015

$0.7800 $0.4803 $0.3818

$0.7910 $0.4800

$0.7625 $0.4200

$0.7325 $0.4200

$0.7175 $0.4340

$0.7100 $0.4653

$0.7100 $0.4015

$0.6825 $0.4015

$0.6600 $0.4015

$0.6450 $0.4015

$0.6300 $0.4015

$0.7108 $0.4419 $0.3916

$0.7910 $0.5953 $0.4015

$0.6300 $0.4015 $0.3818

3 Yr. Ave.

3-Year Average* $0.4256 $0.4432

Olympic Ave.

5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.

$0.4471

$0.4597

$0.4701

$0.4573

$0.4374

$0.4209

$0.4077

$0.4108

$0.4242

$0.4618

$0.4388

$0.4701

$0.4077

$0.4545

$0.4127

$0.3923

$0.3818

$0.3643

$0.3631

$0.3671

$0.3698

$0.3480

$0.3830

$0.4171

$0.3928

$0.4595

$0.3480

5-Year Average* $0.3989 $0.4143

$0.4595

$0.4236

$0.4325

$0.4382

$0.4344

$0.4201

$0.4130

$0.4085

$0.4117

$0.4188

$0.4314

$0.4204

$0.4382

$0.3989

$0.4376

$0.4371

$0.4299

$0.4232

$0.4066

$0.3862

$0.3899

$0.3964

$0.3913

$0.4014

$0.4050

$0.4098

$0.4376

$0.3862

10-Year Average* $0.4757 $0.4746

$0.4719

$0.4714

$0.4676

$0.4611

$0.4540

$0.4462

$0.4428

$0.4466

$0.4565

$0.4609

$0.4608

$0.4757

$0.4428

$0.4770

$0.4737

$0.4689

$0.4590

$0.4471

$0.4361

$0.4390

$0.4478

$0.4603

$0.4643

$0.4612

$0.4824

$0.4361

$0.4128

$0.4793

$0.4824

* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Dry Whey prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.

42

© AgChoice Farm Credit


Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022

Sources AgChoice Farm Credit, 2011‐2019 Dairy Success and Profitability Review, www.agchoice.com Farm Credit East, 2003‐2019 Dairy Farm Summary, www.farmcrediteast.com Chicago Mercantile Exchange, www.cmegroup.com United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, http://www.ers.usda.gov U.S. Dairy Statistics, Progressive Dairyman, https://www.progressivepublish.com/downloads/ Northeast Milk Marketing Area Administrator, Uniform Price and Producer Price Differential, http://www.fmmone.com Understanding Dairy Markets, www.dairymarkets.org and https://dairy.aae.wisc.edu/dairy‐marketing‐tools/ National Milk Producers Federation, http://www.nmpf.org

©AgChoice Farm Credit 43


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