AGCHOICE.COM
DAIRY INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
Dairy Industry Outlook
Introduction As Pennsylvania's premier agricultural lender, it is the business philosophy of AgChoice Farm Credit to continually research and evaluate the industries we serve, assess risk and make sound lending and business decisions. The Dairy Industry Outlook has been developed to provide insight and guidance on Pennsylvania's dairy industry.
Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Prepared by AgChoice Farm Credit Staff: Michael Hosterman, Agricultural Business Consultant Heather Weeks, Agricultural Business Consultant Rosalie Zaginaylo, Consultant Support Analyst Support from other AgChoice Business Management Services Staff Support from other AgChoice Credit Staff
2
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table of Contents Item
Page #
Cover
1
Introduction
2
Table of Contents
3
Blank page
4
Executive Summary
5-7
Outlook Summary
8 - 14
Exhibit 1 - Historical Key Performance Indicators & Projections
15
Exhibit 2 - Milk Production - 23 Selected States
16
Exhibit 3 - Number of U.S. Dairy Operations
17
Exhibit 4 - Historical Milk Price Trend
17
Exhibit 5 - Cow Numbers Trend
18
Exhibit 6 - Milk Shipped per Cow Trend
18
Exhibit 7 -- AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks Includes: 7A - Cost of Production per Cwt., 7B - Cost of Production $ per Cow, 7C - Footnotes, 7D - EBITDA per Cow graph, & 7E - Cost of Production Graph
19-23
Exhibit 8 -- Northeast Dairy Farm Summary for All Farms Includes: 8A - Cost of Production per Cwt., 8B - Cost of Production $ per Cow, 8C - Footnotes, 8D - EBITDA per Cow graph, and 8E - Cost of Production Graph
24-28
Exhibit 9 -- Trend of Dairy Livestock Values Exhibit 10 - PA Milk Price Information
29 30
Exhibit 11 - Class III Milk Price Information
31-32
Includes: 11A - Class III Prices, and 11B - Class III Graphs Exhibit 12 - PA Basis for Class III Milk
33
Exhibit 13 - Class IV Milk Price Information
34-35
Includes: 13A - Class IV Prices, and 13B - Class IV Graphs Exhibit 14 - PA Basis for Class IV Milk
36
Exhibit 15 - Cheese price per pound
37
Exhibit 16 - Butterfat price per pound
38
Exhibit 17 - Protein price per pound
39
Exhibit 18 - Other Solids price per pound
40
Exhibit 19 - Butter price per pound
41
Exhibit 20 - Dry whey price per pound
42
Sources
43
3
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
This page intentionally left blank.
4
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Executive Summary Global dairy demand outweighs supply as Pennsylvania dairy farmers begin 2022 with the strongest Class III and Class IV futures prices in eight years. Northeast dairy farmers are well positioned to take advantage of strong prices if they can manage costs, secure the prices with risk management, and drive efficiencies for long-term viability.
Price Forecast AgChoice predicts the milk price for 2022 will improve from 2021’s average but rising feed costs will pinch margins based on the current commodity markets. Tables 1 and 2 below summarize our price and cash flow predictions. We project 2022 basis to remain more stable around $2.50/cwt for the year, returning to near historical averages. However, prices remain volatile, with Class IV futures currently higher than Class III based on strong butter prices and stock reports. Any difference between the two class prices, greater than $1.48/cwt, will cause a negative adjustment to Producer Price Differential on the milk check, regardless of which class is higher. A return to a “normal” basis and strong class prices equals the highest mailbox price dairy farmers will see in eight years. Farms must use risk management programs to ensure they will receive these prices and mitigate any down-side risk. With higher input costs and supply shortages of certain goods for both cow care and crop production, AgChoice expects cost of production to increase and tighten margins. Opportunities exist for farms to protect a floor and cover their costs of production, especially for Q3 and Q4 of 2022. Table 1 includes projections for 2022 and a Typical Year. Primary assumptions for projections are driven from CME 1 prices as of the date of this Outlook, the Pennsylvania 10-year Class III basis, percentage Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), overhead and moderate increased milk sold per cow. Table 1 – Pennsylvania Projections 2022
Typical Yr.
PA Milk Price
$25.56
$19.00
EBITDA per Cow
$1,150
$900
42%
37%
Overhead as % of Milk Income
27.7%
28%
Net Income per Cow
$785
$405
Net Income per Cwt.
$3.40
$1.68
Net Cost of Production (COP)
$22.16
$17.32
Breakeven Cost of Production
$22.71
$17.87
2
Gross Margin
Note: These prices vary slightly from Exhibit 1 as these are for PA and Exhibit 1 is based on Northeast
1
Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/dairy
2
Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization
©AgChoice Farm Credit 5
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Table 2 – Average Producer’s Projected Cash Flow 2022 2022 Typical Yr. Per Cwt Per Cow Per Cwt
Typical Yr. Per Cow
PA Gross Milk Income
$25.56
$5,712
$19.00
$4,921
Farm Expenses Less Non-Milk Income 3
$20.43
$4,562
$15.53
$4,021
EBITDA
$5.13
$1,150
$3.47
$900
Owner Living or Draws
$1.25
$300
$1.25
$300
Principal and Interest
$2.40
$620
$2.40
$620
Net Residual Income (NRI)
$1.48
$230
-$1.18
-$164
Breakeven Milk Price Before Capital Purchases
$24.08
$5,482
$19.18
$5,085
Capital Purchases
$3.46
$825
$3.09
$825
NRI after Capital Purchases
-$1.98
-$595
-$4.27
-$989
Note: These prices vary slightly from Exhibit 1 as these are for PA and Exhibit 1 is based on Northeast
Pennsylvania projections are summarized as follows: • 2022 o Milk price: $6.50 higher than 2021, or $7.20 higher than the five-year average price o EBITDA per cow: Similar to 2021 and about $350/cow higher than the five-year average o Capital purchases: Continue at the five and 10-year average level of $825 per cow • Typical year o Milk price: Similar to the previous three-year average PA average milk prices range from a low of $18.38 (2017-2021) to a high of $19.46/cwt as the 10-year average of 2012-2021, and are within $1.00/cwt of each other. Exhibit 4 illustrates the trend over the last 15 years. While 2022 illustrates the volatile nature of commodity markets, long-term futures all revert back to historical levels, justifying the typical year comfortably within this trend. o EBITDA per cow: The 10-year average Similar to milk price, the average EBITDA per cow has held within a reasonably small range over the last 10 years; trends shown in Exhibit 8D. The longer-range average smooths outlier years of volatility in farm earnings underplayed by averaging recent years. AgChoice believes that typical year earnings will hue more closely to the 10-year average over a typical year for future budgeting and analysis management. o Capital purchases: Continue at the same five and 10-year average level of $825 per cow As always, when making individual producer projections, compare historical performance to information in Exhibit 1, and make adjustments accordingly. Example: Producer has a five-year EBITDA per cow of $775 (about $20 below the database five-year average); so, EBITDA per cow projected should be $20 below the typical year recommended level, or $880 per cow assuming no other changes to the operation.
3
Expenses include depreciation and interest, and a negative expense to account for all non-milk income including any non-farm income
©AgChoice Farm Credit 6
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Review Pennsylvania’s location in the Northeast U.S. positions the state for opportunity within the national dairy sector particularly as the current commodity markets highlight the value in growing forages and grains. Still, Pennsylvania dairy farms trail peers in milk shipped per cow and need to improve milk production to lower cost of production. Two years of strong cash inflows from government relief programs have improved debt per cow and increased cash reserves. While the state’s higher land values do impact the debt per cow, Pennsylvania farmers must increase energy corrected milk4 shipped per cow to lower the overall cost of production and drive earnings that support the higher overhead costs. Critics claim more milk will impact industry macroeconomics; however, at the farm level, that extra pound of milk production is the most profitable and is what Pennsylvania farms need to become competitive on cost of production. Some farms can pivot to a higher value direct market product model although it requires re-investment. Pennsylvania dairies will continue to face pressure to drive down costs and improve production.
4
Energy corrected milk (ECM) adjusts milk pounds produced to a standard 3.5% butterfat and 3.2% protein. Farms with higher components in their milk will see a stronger energy corrected milk adjustment compared with farms producing milk with lower comparative butterfat and protein components.
©AgChoice Farm Credit 7
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook In 2022, Pennsylvania dairy producers should focus on the following: 1. Taking advantage of strong class prices a. Pennsylvania producers ship fewer pounds of components per cow than peers in the Northeast U.S. (Exhibit 6). Class III and Class IV prices are higher than they have been since 2014. Producers must take advantage of these prices by capitalizing on high quality milk shipped and utilizing all risk management programs available such as Dairy Revenue Protection (Dairy RP) that allows producers to put a floor on their milk price and retains the upside opportunity. 2. Tracking cost of production and budget a. Dairy producers that do not know their cost of production and have not created a cash flow budget for 2022 likely will make uninformed decisions when input costs are high, and supplies are tight. Budgeting will enable the savvy manager to determine what price the farm can pay for crop inputs and supplies while still ensuring a profit. b. Farms concerned about rising costs are liable to fall into the trap of cutting costs at the expense of production and yields. Cutting costs too far can backfire. Low forage yields may result in farms purchasing high dollar grain or other substitutes. Cutting corners on a ration can result in cows dropping in production or components and squeeze an already tight milk check. 3. Seeking out opportunities a. 2022 presents opportunities for farms to consider dairy farming from a new angle. With supply chain challenges, can farms create a buying group to purchase commodities in bulk? What technological efficiencies exist that farm teams have not yet tried? 4. Tracking EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, and owner draws/living)5 a. EBITDA continues to be an efficiency measure and a benchmark used by many in the industry for assessing operations and making projections. In 20216, EBITDA per cow was around $1,150, bringing the most recent threeyear average to $818 per cow. EBITDA is expected to be stable in 2022 with strong income paired with increased costs. Historical averages are listed below: i. Three-year average: $818/cow or 14.2% of milk income ii. Five-year average: $792/cow or 15.1% of milk income iii. 10-year average: $901/cow or 17.5% of milk income 5. Securing the balance sheet a. Pay down lines of credit or accounts payable that may carry finance charges with larger milk checks. Both forms of debt can carry interest payments, and by reducing or eliminating these short-term debts, cutting interest payments can lower the cost of production. b. By starting with current debts, particularly a revolving line of credit, a farm can improve working capital at the same time with any undrawn commitment available for any unforeseen expenses or to cover crop costs or even prepay for 2023 needs.
5
Please note that before using EBITDA per cow as a tool for projecting income, it is important to compare the actual producer’s EBITDA per cow over time to the averages stated here and adjust accordingly. If the actual producer’s EBITDA per cow average is above or below the averages above, you must adjust the EBITDA per cow shown in our price forecast section by a similar amount 6
Government payments including the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) are included in the 2020 EBITDA measure, as historical government support programs are also included in long-term trends, such as the Market Facilitation Program.
©AgChoice Farm Credit 8
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 The following forces will drive the 2022 outlook in the PA dairy industry:
Supply Drivers •
Cow numbers The U.S. dairy herd ended 2021 with 67,000 fewer cows than it started the year. During the year, the herd reached a peak in May 2021 at slightly over 9.5 million cows before dropping by 132,000 to end the year at 9.375 million (Figure 1). Exhibit 5 represents average cows in the U.S. dairy herd over the past 15 years. From 2020, the average herd size during the year increased only slightly by 0.6% or just over 60,000 head. In 2021, production increased a modest 1.37% driven by the spike in the dairy herd in the middle of the year, as milk production per cow only grew by .73% on the national average. Figure 1. U.S. Dairy Cow Numbers, 2021 7
7
Economic Research Service, USDA.
©AgChoice Farm Credit 9
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 In Pennsylvania, cow numbers dropped by 1.66% to 474,000 cows and production fell by 1.61% with production per cow remaining almost static, increasing by a mere 12 pounds per cow per year to 21,338. The state fell to 8th in total milk production, behind Minnesota whose cow numbers only grew by 2.9% but overall production increase by 4% in 2021 (Exhibit 2). The total number of Pennsylvania herds decreased by 4% to 5,200, remaining second in the nation behind Wisconsin with 6,770 herds. No single state grew in dairy herds from 2020 to 2021 although 13 states increased cow numbers with the largest gains coming in South Dakota and Wyoming at 16% and 13% herd growth respectively. Table 3 – Pennsylvania and New York, 2021 Rank PA Nationally
Rank Nationally
Total Production (million lbs)
10,114
8
15,540
5
Number of Licensed Dairies
5,200
2
3,430
3
Number of Cows (thousands)
474
6
627
4
Average Herd Size (cows)
91
46
183
31
21,338
29
24,785
7
Milk Per Cow (lbs) •
NY
Base Programs Cooperative base programs are one reason for limited growth on farms. In the early stages of enforcement, many cooperatives imposed only minor penalties for farms producing over their base allotment. Farms calculated that their price for over-base milk still covered the margin cost of each additional hundredweight. However, beginning in the spring 2021 flush season, processors assessed sufficient penalties to enforce the supply restriction and incentivize farms to limit production through culling. PA Producer basis returned to $2.00/cwt average in 2021 up from $0.05/cwt in 2020 due to the large spread between Class III and Class IV milk prices as a result of residual effects of the Farmers to Families Food Box Program during 2020 and the negative Producer Price Differential that adjusts for this averaging of the two class prices on which PA milk producers get paid. We project 2022 basis to remain more stable around $2.50/cwt for the year, returning to near historical averages (Exhibit 12). Today, processors no longer face an oversupply of milk. It is unlikely that farmers will see the same severe base penalties enforced in spring 2021. The effects of 2021’s base policies continue as farms that culled to reduce overbase penalties are not adding cows back at the same rate they reduced herd size, and are unlikely to grow for threat of additional base restrictions. As a result, U.S. milk production will not rebound as it normally would under such strong price incentives.
©AgChoice Farm Credit 10
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Table 4 is a summary of the Northeast utilization from 2019 as reported by the Northeast Market Administrator8. Fluid milk, the higher value, continues to decline as percentage of total milk. PA Farms observe this shift in Exhibit 4 as the PA gross milk price converges with the U.S. all milk price in recent years as more milk shifts away from Class I utilization. Table 4 – Northeast market milk supply utilization 2019 2020 2021
•
Class 1
31.0%
30.6%
30.1%
Class 2
23.9%
23.9%
25.2%
Class 3
26.8%
25.9%
26.3%
Class 4
18.3%
19.6%
18.5%
Input Costs Penn State estimates a 20.5% increase in feed costs per hundredweight year-over-year as of October 2021. 9 Additionally, crop inputs, particularly fertilizer, are forcing farmers to examine their cropping plans for 2022. Pennsylvania dairy farmers who can grow their own forages and grains have an advantage over farms that must purchase feed ingredients. However, anecdotal evidence suggests managers are weighing the costs and benefits of reducing crop inputs and giving up some forage and quality yield. For farms that choose this method, it is likely they will also see a reduction of not only pounds shipped but potentially component values too.
•
Replacement Inventories Heifer inventories are at their lowest levels across the United States. Cornell’s preliminary results of their 2021 Dairy Farm Business Summary show 76% heifer inventory to cows. In the January 31, 2022 report, NASS reported the total national heifer inventories shrunk by 3.4% year-over-year down to 4.45 million head. 10 Many factors contribute to these results:
8
o
Better reproductive performance and herd health mean fewer culls and replacements needed for the dairy herd
o
More knowledge about genetics allows farms to selectively breed poorer performing cows to beef with the resulting calf earning more value at market
https://www.fmmone.com/Monthly_Newsletter.htm
9
Beck, T, Goodling, R, Ishler, V, Schmidt, C, Swartz, D. 26 October 2021. Dairy Outlook: October 2021. https://extension.psu.edu/dairyoutlook-october-2021
10
National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. 31 January 2022.
©AgChoice Farm Credit 11
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 o
More knowledge about the cost to raise a replacement heifer and increased input costs incentivize farms to limit their replacement inventory to only the animals that are needed for their dairy herd
As a result, the U.S. dairy herd does not have the capacity to add additional animals into milking; the heifers simply no longer exist. Consider it a supply chain issue with a two-year lag time. •
Supply Chain Dairy producers face additional effects of supply chain constraints due to the cost of getting dairy products to market. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index (FFPI) 11 (Figure 2) shows the dramatic increase in global dairy product prices in the second half of 2021 due to continued demand coupled with constraints on supply.
Figure 2. Food Price Index 2021, FAO
11
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
©AgChoice Farm Credit 12
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Demand Drivers •
Exports / Global Supply December 2021 dairy production in top production regions of Argentina, Australia, the European Union, New Zealand, and the United States shrunk by 1.3% compared with the prior year. The biggest drop since 2016, weather in the Southern Hemisphere and European price reactions to quota removal caused the decline. The United States exported 1.3 billion pounds of dairy products to Mexico in 2021, our largest buyer of dairy products. All told, U.S. exports expanded by 10% in 2021 to almost six billion pounds. o
Oceania Wet conditions in the winter and early spring put producers behind in New Zealand heading into the later months of 2021. As of December 2021, New Zealand posted the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year production losses. Production was 3.3% lower in the first seven months of the growing season compared with the 2020-2021 season, and the lowest since 2017-2018. Weather is not the only concern for long-term growth in Oceania. New Zealand’s capacity to expand production is limited by environmental concerns over water quality and operating costs, with current inflation pressure compressing margins. Fonterra has raised pay prices accordingly to meet demand and encourage production.
o
European Union Environmental movements throughout the European Union, and in particularly strong dairy regions, are encouraging retirements and discouraging expansion. While production declined in most areas of Europe at yearend 2021, according to data from Eurostat, Germany’s December 2021 production was 2.9% lower than the prior year and showed an overall decline in production of 1.4 billion pounds compared with 2020. France’s production fell by 1.48% in 2021 and the Netherlands declined by 2.3%. While the United Kingdom and Ireland posted declines in December, production overall was up for the year. Italy and Poland increased production both in December and annually. While weather constraints in Oceania are seasonal and will change, these environmental regulations are unlikely to shift in the near term.
o
China The United States increased exports of total dairy products by 28% in 2021 compared to 2020. In early 2022, U.S. exports to China were slowing, with total exports dropping 34% in December 2021. Analysts estimate this is due to strong purchases in 2020 and 2021 that filled China’s stocks of non-fat dry milk, milk powders, and whey ahead of fears of shipment delays and slowing demand. Chinese pork demand also slowed as output in 2021 was lower than expected. Additionally, China’s population is slowing. These factors indicate that Chinese demand may not grow at the same rates seen in 2020 and 2021, but pressure from global dairy supply indicates that the United States is uniquely positioned to meet China’s dairy needs.
©AgChoice Farm Credit 13
Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
PA Dairy Cash Flow Impacts •
Capital Expenditures The significant flow of cash from government programs in 2020 and 2021 resulted in farms’ ability to reinvest in their operations. Preliminary evidence indicates farmers reinvested around $1,000 per cow of capital expenses in 2020 and $825 in 2021, up from $630 in 2019. These purchases include real estate, improvements, equipment, vehicles, and breeding livestock (animals for expansion). About 37-40% of that reinvestment was in equipment and vehicles and about 20% was in real estate. Historical averages of capital expenditures are as follows: o o o
Three-year average: $900/cow or 7.1% of total assets Five-year average: $825/cow or 6.5% of total assets 10-year average: $825/cow or 6.5% of total assets
We predict capital expenditures in 2022 to be consistent with the five and 10-year average of $825/cow given the increase in input costs discussed above. •
Risk Management Options Price risk management options have never been easier for the Pennsylvania dairy farmer. Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) Supplemental Coverage addressed in 2021 increased the ability for small and mid-sized dairies shipping under five million pounds of milk to cover more milk under this program. Though higher feed costs will compress margins, positive pressure on milk prices forecasts futures elevates margins above the DMC payout in 2022. 12 This is a positive sign for dairy farmers that can insure their milk margins for the rate of $0.15/cwt at the $9.50/cwt coverage level to protect against any shocks to the market. If markets hold, farm accounts will deposit milk checks not seen since 2014. Farms shipping over five-million pounds, or farms that have a breakeven cost of production higher than that $20/cwt approximate figure insured with the adjusted DMC formula also have Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) at their disposal. Classic contracting and options through co-ops and brokers also still exist.
12
Based on futures data gathered 2/24/22.
©AgChoice Farm Credit 14
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 1 Historical Key Performance Indicators & Projections Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Key Performance Indicators PA Milk Price All U.S. Milk Price Northeast Milk Price Northeast Milk Sold per Cow Northeast EBITDA: EBITDA per Cow EBITDA per Cwt. EBITDA as % of Milk Income Northeast Liabilities: Total Liabilities per Cwt. Principal & Interest Payments per Cwt. Principal & Interest Payments per Cow Working Capital per Cow Capital Purchases Per Cow Capital Purchases as % of Total Assets Northeast Gross Revenue: Milk Income per Cow Northeast Efficiency: Gross Margin as % of Milk Income Operating Efficiency -- Operating Expense Ratio 1 Capital Efficiency -- Asset Turnover Ratio 2 Debt Efficiency -- Total Debt/EBITDA Northeast Capacity: Overhead as % of Milk Income Northeast Profitability: Net Income per Cow Net Income per Cwt. Return on Assets Return on Equity Northeast Liquidity: Current Ratio Working Capital as % of Farm Income 3 Northeast Solvency: % Equity Debt to Asset Northeast Repayment Ability: Total Debt Coverage Ratio 4 Northeast Other: Net Cost of Production per Cwt. 5 Breakeven Cost of Production per Cwt. 6 Feed and Crop Cost per Cow Feed and Crop Cost per Cwt. Feed and Crop Cost as % of Milk Income
2020
Est 2021
$ 18.11 $ 21.30 $ 18.48 23,805
$ 19.08 $ 18.69 $ 19.13 23,997
Goals
$ $
< $20.00 < $2.50 > $1,000
$ 18.38 $ 18.48 $ 18.46 23,531
$ 19.46 $ 18.82 $ 19.39 22,701
$ 818 $ 792 $ 901 $ 2.68 $ 2.79 $ 3.50 14.2% 15.1% 17.5%
$ 15.25 $ 2.40 $ 625 $ 1,025 $ 825 6.6%
$ 15.46 $ 2.43 $ 628 $ 958 $ 829 6.6%
$ 15.64 $ 2.45 $ 630 $ 999 $ 812 6.5%
$ 15.17 $ 2.43 $ 606 $ 1,117 $ 820 6.6%
$ 4,399
$ 4,591
$ 4,496
$ 4,502
$ 4,702
$ $
> 2.00 > 20% $ > 60% < 40% $ > 150%
$ 18.78 $ 19.53 $ 18.93 23,757
$ 15.38 $ 2.37 $ 613 $ 1,025 $ 1,031 8.1%
< 400%
> 6% > 6%
752 $ 1,150 2.89 $ 3.00 15.6% 15.7%
Averages 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average
42.6% 89.6% 48.0% 529.4%
42.0% 85.0% 50.0% 500.0%
27.7%
27.7%
2022
$ 25.56 $ 24.36 $ 23.80 24,000
27.6%
$
350 1.50 6.0% 6.0%
$ 494 $ 358 $ 405 $ 1.96 $ 1.42 $ 1.66 6.0% 4.6% 4.6% 6.5% 4.6% 4.8%
3.40 22%
2.90 22%
3.03 20%
2.81 20%
2.77 20%
69% 31%
69% 31%
68% 32%
68% 32%
70% 30%
112%
120%
118%
101%
119%
$ 18.11 $ 18.13 $ 2,031 $ 7.85 44.4%
$ 18.00 $ 17.50 $ 2,087 $ 7.98 44.4%
$ 17.97 $ 17.79 $ 2,006 $ 7.73 42.4%
$ 17.65 $ 17.88 $ 1,966 $ 7.64 42.4%
$ 18.04 $ 18.39 $ 2,041 $ 8.21 43.0%
825
$ 5,712
27.3%
663 $ 2.56 $ 6.4% 7.6%
$ 21.32 $ 20.43 $ 18.93 25,900
$ 19.00 $ 18.00 $ 19.00 25,900
$ 1,150 $ 818 $ 900 $ 4.79 $ 3.16 $ 3.48 20.1% 16.7% 18.3%
40.4% 36.9% 36.2% 86.3% 86.1% 84.6% 48.3% 46.2% 45.9% 588.4% 579.7% 499.7% 27.1%
Projections 2023 Typical Year
$
825
$ 4,902
$
825
$ 4,921
42.0%
36.9%
36.9%
27.7%
28.0%
28.0%
$ $
785 3.40
$ 494 $ 1.68
$ 405 $ 1.68
$ $ $ $
20.40 20.95 2,536 10.57 44.4%
$ 17.25 $ 17.80 $ 2,177 $ 8.40 44.4%
$ 17.32 $ 17.87 $ 2,106 $ 8.13 42.8%
Notes: 1 Operating Expense Ratio: (Farm Expense w/o interest & depreciation) / (Gross Farm Income) 2 Asset Turnover Ratio: Gross farm income / Total Assets 3 Working Capital Sufficiency -- Working Capital as % of Farm Income: Working Capital / Gross Farm Income 4 Total Debt Coverage Ratio: (Net Income + Depreciation + Interest expense) / Debt service 5 Net Cost of Production: Includes depreciation expense and not principal payments 6 Breakeven Cost of Production: Includes principal payments and not depreciation expense
15
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Exhibit 2 Milk Production - Top 23 States Year:
2021
Milk Production State
California Wisconsin Idaho Texas New York Michigan Minnesota Pennsylvania New Mexico Washington Ohio Iowa Colorado Arizona Indiana Kansas South Dakota Oregon Vermont Utah Florida Illinois Georgia Top 23 Total All U.S.
Current Previous Ranking Ranking
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 22
1 2 3 5 4 6 8 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 20 22 23
In Million of Lbs.
Number of Cows
% Change over prior % of U.S. year In Thousands Total
41,864 31,702 16,412 15,599 15,540 11,952 10,548 10,114 7,804 6,504 5,643 5,538 5,271 4,818 4,532 4,098 3,603 2,622 2,566 2,223 2,170 1,774 1,798
1.3% 3.1% 1.1% 5.0% 1.6% 2.3% 3.7% -1.6% -4.5% -4.6% 0.4% 3.1% 2.3% -1.5% 4.6% 1.8% 15.5% -0.6% -1.4% -0.3% -5.1% -0.7% 1.5%
18.5% 14.0% 7.3% 6.9% 6.9% 5.3% 4.7% 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8%
1,719 1,274 652 622 627 441 461 474 318 271 257 226 203 198 192 172 156 125 120 96 108 82 82
214,695 226,258
1.3%
94.9% 100.0%
8,876 9,448
State % of U.S. Total Ranking
1 2 3 5 4 8 7 6 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 20 22 22
Licensed Dairies Number
18.2% 13.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.6% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 3.4% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9%
1,195 6,770 430 340 3,430 1,140 2,215 5,200 120 330 1,620 880 110 80 770 230 165 190 580 140 75 495 110
93.9% 100.0%
26,615 29,858
16
State % of U.S. Ranking Total
6 1 13 16 3 7 4 2 27 17 5 8 28 34 9 19 22 21 11 24-T 35 12 27-T
Average Herd Size Ave. Head
4.0% 22.7% 1.4% 1.1% 11.5% 3.8% 7.4% 17.4% 0.4% 1.1% 5.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 1.7% 0.4%
1,438 188 1,516 1,829 183 387 208 91 2,650 821 159 257 1,845 2,475 249 748 945 658 207 686 1,440 166 745
89.1% 100.0%
316
State Ranking
9 30 7 4 31 18 26 46 1 11 35 22 3 2 23 12 10 15 27 14 8 34 13
Milk Per Cow Lbs. Year
24,354 24,884 25,172 25,079 24,785 27,102 22,881 21,338 24,541 24,000 21,957 24,504 25,966 24,333 23,604 23,826 23,096 20,976 21,383 23,156 20,093 21,634 21,927
State Ranking
12 6 4 5 7 1 20 29 9 14 25 11 2 13 16 15 18 31 28 17 36 27 26
23,948
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Exhibit 3
28,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
29,858
31,657
38,000
34,187
37,468
40,219
41,809
43,584
48,000
45,344
49,331
51,291
53,132
54,942
57,127
59,130
# of Licensed Dairy Operatons
58,000
46,960
# of Operations
68,000
2020
2021
2020
2021
Exhibit 4 Historical Milk Prices $26.00 $24.00 $22.00
Milk $/Cwt.
$20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00
2008 Class III
2009
2010
Gross PA
2011
2012
Gross All U.S.
2013
2014
2015
Class III trend line
17
2016
2017
2018
PA trend line
2019
All U.S. trend line
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Exhibit 5 Cow Numbers
1,100
9,600
9,200
900 8,800 800 8,400 700 8,000 600
U.S. Cow Numbers - Thousands
Number of Cows - Thousands
1,000
7,600
500
7,200
400
Northeast
PA
All U.S.
Trend Northeast
Trend PA
Exhibit 6 Milk Shipped Per Cow 24,000 23,000
Pounds of Milk
22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000
Northeast
PA
18
All U.S.
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 7A Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks $ per Cwt. -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 304 294 255
2011 180
2012 172
2013 249
2014 237
2015 240
2016 266
2017 294
2018 265
2019 336
2020 311
21,390
20,335
23,076
23,129
23,344
23,586
23,998
23,668
23,622
23,529
23,606
23,681
22,968
Milk Income
$ 21.40
$ 20.18
$ 21.52
$ 25.69
$ 18.84
$ 17.31
$ 19.01
$ 17.31
$ 19.34
$ 19.68
$ 18.77
$ 18.53
$ 20.03
Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold
1.76 6.93 0.99 1.95 0.80 2.13 1.04 0.08 0.29 (5.36) $ 10.62 $
Gross Margin
$ 10.79
$ 10.60
$ 8.77
$ 13.17
$ 7.10
$ 5.70
$ 7.66
$ 5.51
$ 8.08
$ 9.99
$ 7.86
$ 7.39
$ 8.74
Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead
1.74 1.04 0.65 0.29 0.38 0.51 1.67 1.67 $ 7.96
1.66 0.90 0.61 0.30 0.59 0.59 1.69 2.03 $ 8.37
1.47 0.92 0.68 0.22 0.40 0.52 1.16 1.66 $ 7.03
1.79 0.83 0.78 0.25 0.46 0.58 1.44 2.15 $ 8.27
1.35 0.84 0.75 0.24 0.35 0.54 1.52 1.77 $ 7.36
1.20 0.89 0.70 0.25 0.33 0.51 1.30 1.71 $ 6.90
1.23 0.98 0.67 0.27 0.33 0.50 1.19 1.65 $ 6.82
1.14 0.99 0.73 0.29 0.35 0.52 1.24 1.67 $ 6.92
1.13 1.06 0.75 0.27 0.35 0.50 1.10 1.65 $ 6.81
1.42 0.94 0.82 0.28 0.29 0.49 1.42 1.73 $ 7.40
1.23 1.00 0.77 0.28 0.33 0.50 1.26 1.68 $ 7.04
1.22 0.97 0.73 0.27 0.33 0.50 1.25 1.68 $ 6.97
1.41 0.94 0.71 0.27 0.38 0.52 1.37 1.77 $ 7.38
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
$ 18.57
$ 17.95
$ 19.78
$ 20.79
$ 19.09
$ 18.51
$ 18.17
$ 18.72
$ 18.06
$ 17.09
$ 17.96
$ 18.11
$ 18.67
Net Margin or Net Income
$ 2.83
$ 2.23
$ 1.74
$ 4.90
$ (0.26) $ (1.20) $ 0.84
$ (1.41) $ 1.27
$ 2.59
$ 0.82
$ 0.42
$ 1.35
0.26
0.54
0.20
0.41
0.29
0.12
0.21
0.24
0.21
0.32
0.25
0.22
0.28
Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production
$ 1.94 $ 18.85
$ 1.55 $ 17.48
$ 1.50 $ 19.61
$ 2.21 $ 20.84
$ 1.61 $ 18.93
$ 1.42 $ 18.22
$ 1.52 $ 18.03
$ 1.45 $ 18.50
$ 1.61 $ 18.02
$ 1.74 $ 17.10
$ 1.60 $ 17.88
$ 1.55 $ 17.98
$ 1.66 $ 18.56
EBITDA 8
$ 6.96
$ 6.31
$ 5.27
$ 8.92
$ 3.59
$ 2.59
$ 4.45
$ 2.25
$ 4.89
$ 6.36
$ 4.50
$ 4.11
$ 5.16
Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow
Non-Farm include in Non Milk
7
2.13 2.42 2.43 2.48 2.46 2.55 2.29 2.56 6.52 7.01 7.81 5.69 5.78 5.91 5.56 6.10 0.81 1.08 1.31 1.09 0.98 1.11 1.02 1.20 2.14 2.03 2.50 1.60 1.39 1.60 1.46 1.66 1.01 0.85 0.92 0.57 0.47 0.55 0.63 0.58 2.08 2.08 2.42 2.08 1.88 1.84 1.69 1.77 1.11 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.35 1.51 1.70 1.57 0.09 0.09 0.19 0.21 0.10 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.35 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.23 (6.66) (4.28) (6.49) (3.48) (3.03) (3.97) (2.81) (4.49) 9.58 $ 12.75 $ 12.52 $ 11.73 $ 11.61 $ 11.35 $ 11.80 $ 11.26 $
19
2.50 7.01 1.27 2.05 0.44 1.89 1.72 0.04 0.26 (7.50) 9.69
2.45 2.47 2.36 6.22 6.07 6.43 1.17 1.12 1.09 1.72 1.63 1.84 0.55 0.53 0.68 1.78 1.81 1.99 1.66 1.57 1.35 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.24 0.23 0.27 (4.93) (4.36) (4.81) $ 10.92 $ 11.14 $ 11.29
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 7B Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks $ per Cow -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 304 294 255
2011 180
2012 172
2013 249
2014 237
2015 240
2016 266
2017 294
2018 265
2019 336
2020 311
21,390
20,335
23,076
23,129
23,344
23,586
23,998
23,668
23,622
23,529
23,606
23,681
22,968
Milk Income
$ 4,578
$ 4,104
$ 4,966
$ 5,942
$ 4,397
$ 4,082
$ 4,561
$ 4,096
$ 4,568
$ 4,630
$ 4,431
$ 4,387
$ 4,592
Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold
377 433 558 563 578 581 611 542 604 589 1,483 1,326 1,618 1,807 1,329 1,363 1,418 1,315 1,441 1,650 212 164 249 303 255 231 267 242 284 299 418 436 468 578 374 327 383 346 392 483 172 205 197 212 132 110 133 148 138 104 455 422 480 560 486 444 441 401 417 444 222 226 266 264 285 319 362 402 372 404 18 18 21 43 50 23 9 12 17 10 61 72 72 68 62 55 52 51 54 62 (1,147) (1,354) (987) (1,502) (812) (715) (953) (666) (1,060) (1,765) $ 2,271 $ 1,948 $ 2,942 $ 2,896 $ 2,739 $ 2,738 $ 2,723 $ 2,793 $ 2,659 $ 2,280
578 585 544 1,469 1,437 1,475 275 265 251 407 386 421 130 127 155 421 429 455 393 372 312 13 14 22 56 55 61 (1,164) (1,032) (1,096) $ 2,577 $ 2,639 $ 2,599
Gross Margin
$ 2,307
$ 2,156
$ 2,024
$ 3,046
$ 1,658
$ 1,344
$ 1,838
$ 1,303
$ 1,909
$ 2,350
$ 1,854
$ 1,749
$ 1,994
Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead
372 223 139 63 81 109 358 357 $ 1,702
338 184 124 62 119 120 344 412 $ 1,703
339 212 158 51 93 119 267 384 $ 1,623
413 193 180 57 106 133 333 497 $ 1,912
315 197 175 56 82 125 354 414 $ 1,718
283 211 166 59 78 120 307 403 $ 1,627
295 234 161 65 79 120 286 397 $ 1,637
269 234 173 68 82 122 294 395 $ 1,637
267 251 176 63 82 118 261 390 $ 1,608
335 221 193 66 69 115 335 406 $ 1,740
290 235 181 66 78 118 297 397 $ 1,662
290 230 174 64 78 119 297 398 $ 1,650
323 216 165 61 87 120 314 406 $ 1,691
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
$ 3,973
$ 3,651
$ 4,565
$ 4,808
$ 4,457
$ 4,365
$ 4,360
$ 4,430
$ 4,267
$ 4,020
$ 4,239
$ 4,288
$ 4,290
Net Margin or Net Income
$
$
$
401
$ 1,134
$
$
$
$
$
Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow
Non-Farm include in Non Milk
7
605
453
(60) $ (283) $
201
$ (334) $
301
610
192
99
303
55
110
47
94
67
28
50
56
49
75
60
52
63
Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production
416 $ 4,032
316 $ 3,555
345 $ 4,526
510 $ 4,821
377 $ 4,420
335 $ 4,297
365 $ 4,328
344 $ 4,379
380 $ 4,257
410 $ 4,024
378 $ 4,220
367 $ 4,257
380 $ 4,264
EBITDA 8
$ 1,488
$ 1,283
$ 1,217
$ 2,063
$
$
$ 1,068
$
$ 1,154
$ 1,497
$ 1,061
$
$ 1,175
838
20
610
533
972
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 7C Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: AgChoice FC Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks Footnotes -- Accrual Summary of All Farms Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow Milk Income
Footnotes:
Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold
1
Crop Expense = Chemicals + Fertilizer, Lime + Seed, Plant Purchases
2
Livestock Expense = Supply Purchases + Bedding + Production Enhancers + Veterinary, Breeding, etc. + Hoof Care + DHIA
3
Non-Milk Income = Livestock sales + rents + cash crops + Cooperative Distributions + Ag Program Payments + Interest income + Wages + Accrual Adj.
4
Owner Draw = Income Taxes/Social Security + Living Expenses/Partner Draws
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
5
Net Cost of Production = Total Cost of Goods Sold + Total Overhead
Net Margin or Net Income
6
Net Cost of Production = Accrual based break even milk price
7
Non Farm income amount included in Non-Milk Income -- This is used in calculating EBITDA for comparison to AgChoice trend forms
8
EBITDA is calculated by adding Depreciation, Interest, Owner Draws, & Non-Farm income back to Net Margin
Gross Margin Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead
Non-Farm include in Non Milk
7
Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production EBITDA 8
21
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Exhibit 7D
Historical AgChoice Dairy SPR All Farms - EBITDA per Cow 2,500
2,000
$ per cow
1,500
1,000
500
-
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
10-Year Average
5-Year Average
3-Year Average
Linear (10-Year Average)
Linear (5-Year Average)
Linear (3-Year Average)
22
2019
2020
2021
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 7E Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: AgChoice Farm Credit Dairy SPR Summary Benchmarks Accrual Summary for All Farms
$24.00
$20.00
$16.00
$12.00
$8.00
$4.00
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
$-
$(4.00) Milk Income
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
Net Margin or Net Income
Linear (Milk Income)
Linear (Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6)
Linear (Net Margin or Net Income)
23
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 8A Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks $ per Cwt. -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 588 527 433
2010 306
2011 326
2012 343
2013 315
2014 339
2015 374
2016 403
2017 470
2018 478
2019 600
2020 685
22,809
23,244
23,552
23,848
23,847
24,445
25,239
25,493
25,264
25,793
25,884
25,647
25,535
24,661
Milk Income
$ 17.70
$ 21.53
$ 19.74
$ 21.30
$ 25.52
$ 18.18
$ 16.85
$ 18.34
$ 17.19
$ 19.17
$ 18.48
$ 18.28
$ 18.01
$ 19.63
Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold
2.81 2.97 3.07 3.09 3.43 3.26 3.20 3.33 3.19 3.26 3.35 5.58 6.79 7.50 7.75 7.85 7.09 6.24 6.24 6.45 6.30 6.64 0.64 0.64 0.62 0.65 0.65 0.74 0.63 0.63 0.73 0.81 0.83 1.10 1.28 1.52 1.61 1.68 1.39 1.21 1.21 1.13 1.06 1.21 0.79 1.07 1.07 1.05 1.08 0.68 0.52 0.59 0.69 0.63 0.48 1.67 1.68 2.03 1.95 2.18 2.01 1.89 1.87 1.64 1.68 1.68 0.94 0.87 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.97 0.98 1.05 1.14 1.14 1.22 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.20 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.53 0.71 0.34 0.23 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.40 0.31 0.37 (3.02) (3.21) (4.19) (3.58) (3.87) (4.33) (3.58) (3.22) (3.14) (2.86) (4.86) $ 11.10 $ 12.84 $ 12.93 $ 13.76 $ 14.52 $ 12.22 $ 11.55 $ 12.08 $ 12.24 $ 12.36 $ 10.98
3.26 3.26 3.21 6.46 6.37 6.89 0.79 0.73 0.69 1.13 1.16 1.33 0.60 0.58 0.79 1.67 1.75 1.86 1.17 1.10 1.02 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.36 0.36 0.39 (3.62) (3.53) (3.68) $ 11.86 $ 11.84 $ 12.55
Gross Margin
$ 6.61
$ 8.69
$ 6.80
$ 7.54
$ 11.00
$ 5.96
$ 5.31
$ 6.26
$ 4.95
$ 6.81
$ 7.50
$ 6.42
$ 6.17
$ 7.08
Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead
1.09 0.58 0.33 0.25 0.25 0.47 0.67 1.24 $ 4.87
1.37 0.52 0.36 0.26 0.26 0.46 0.69 1.14 $ 5.07
1.29 0.50 0.34 0.27 0.25 0.43 0.64 1.25 $ 4.97
1.39 0.49 0.39 0.30 0.26 0.47 0.75 1.43 $ 5.48
1.77 0.48 0.45 0.33 0.28 0.51 0.75 1.51 $ 6.07
1.43 0.47 0.45 0.28 0.29 0.47 0.69 1.44 $ 5.52
1.23 0.52 0.39 0.28 0.27 0.42 0.58 1.38 $ 5.08
1.29 0.63 0.41 0.31 0.25 0.36 0.49 1.30 $ 5.03
1.13 0.76 0.42 0.28 0.24 0.38 0.49 1.27 $ 4.98
1.21 0.81 0.50 0.29 0.23 0.34 0.41 1.21 $ 4.99
1.50 0.57 0.54 0.27 0.23 0.34 0.34 1.16 $ 4.94
1.28 0.71 0.49 0.28 0.23 0.35 0.41 1.21 $ 4.97
1.27 0.66 0.45 0.29 0.24 0.37 0.46 1.26 $ 5.01
1.36 0.58 0.43 0.29 0.26 0.42 0.58 1.31 $ 5.21
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
$ 15.97
$ 17.91
$ 17.90
$ 19.25
$ 20.59
$ 17.74
$ 16.63
$ 17.11
$ 17.22
$ 17.35
$ 15.92
$ 16.83
$ 16.85
$ 17.76
Net Margin or Net Income
$ 1.74
$ 3.62
$ 1.84
$ 2.05
$ 4.93
$ 0.44
$ 0.23
$ 1.23
$ (0.03) $ 1.82
$ 2.56
$ 1.45
$ 1.16
$ 1.87
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.24
0.18
0.56
0.17
0.09
0.13
0.09
0.07
0.10
0.11
0.19
Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production
$ 1.75 $ 16.48
$ 1.79 $ 18.56
$ 1.79 $ 18.44
$ 2.00 $ 19.81
$ 2.02 $ 21.11
$ 1.91 $ 18.21
$ 1.88 $ 17.12
$ 1.76 $ 17.57
$ 1.83 $ 17.78
$ 1.71 $ 17.85
$ 1.80 $ 16.56
$ 1.78 $ 17.40
$ 1.79 $ 17.38
$ 1.85 $ 18.30
EBITDA 8
$ 4.04
$ 5.79
$ 4.03
$ 4.50
$ 7.49
$ 2.47
$ 2.54
$ 3.56
$ 2.36
$ 4.15
$ 4.56
$ 3.69
$ 3.44
$ 4.15
Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow
Non-Farm include in Non Milk
7
24
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 8B Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks $ per Cow -- Accrual Summary for All Farms 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Average Average Average 588 527 433
2010 306
2011 326
2012 343
2013 315
2014 339
2015 374
2016 403
2017 470
2018 478
2019 600
2020 685
22,809
23,244
23,552
23,848
23,847
24,445
25,239
25,493
25,264
25,793
25,884
25,647
25,535
24,661
Milk Income
$ 4,038
$ 5,004
$ 4,648
$ 5,080
$ 6,086
$ 4,444
$ 4,254
$ 4,676
$ 4,344
$ 4,945
$ 4,784
$ 4,691
$ 4,601
$ 4,827
Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold
640 690 722 737 817 797 808 849 805 841 866 1,273 1,578 1,767 1,849 1,873 1,733 1,576 1,590 1,630 1,625 1,718 146 149 146 155 155 180 159 161 185 209 214 252 297 357 384 400 339 305 308 286 274 313 180 249 253 251 258 166 132 151 174 163 125 381 391 477 465 521 492 476 477 415 433 435 215 202 221 227 225 237 247 267 288 294 315 11 12 11 13 47 4 17 8 2 5 17 122 164 79 55 90 96 97 88 101 81 97 (689) (747) (987) (854) (923) (1,058) (903) (820) (793) (737) (1,258) $ 2,531 $ 2,985 $ 3,046 $ 3,282 $ 3,463 $ 2,986 $ 2,914 $ 3,079 $ 3,093 $ 3,188 $ 2,842
837 834 793 1,658 1,628 1,694 203 186 171 291 297 326 154 149 192 428 447 458 299 282 252 8 10 14 93 93 95 (929) (902) (908) $ 3,041 $ 3,023 $ 3,088
Gross Margin
$ 1,507
$ 2,019
$ 1,602
$ 1,798
$ 2,623
$ 1,458
$ 1,340
$ 1,597
$ 1,251
$ 1,757
$ 1,942
$ 1,650
$ 1,577
$ 1,739
Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead
248 132 76 58 56 107 152 282 $ 1,111
319 122 83 60 61 108 160 265 $ 1,178
304 117 81 63 59 102 150 294 $ 1,170
331 118 93 71 62 112 180 341 $ 1,308
421 114 107 78 67 121 180 359 $ 1,447
350 115 110 69 72 115 168 351 $ 1,350
310 132 99 71 68 107 146 349 $ 1,282
328 160 104 79 63 93 125 331 $ 1,283
285 192 107 71 61 97 123 322 $ 1,258
312 208 130 75 60 87 105 311 $ 1,288
389 148 139 69 59 87 89 299 $ 1,279
329 183 125 72 60 90 106 311 $ 1,275
325 168 116 73 62 94 118 322 $ 1,278
335 143 105 71 63 103 143 322 $ 1,284
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
$ 3,642
$ 4,163
$ 4,216
$ 4,590
$ 4,910
$ 4,336
$ 4,196
$ 4,362
$ 4,351
$ 4,476
$ 4,121
$ 4,316
$ 4,301
$ 4,372
Net Margin or Net Income
$
$
$
$
490
$ 1,176
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow
Non-Farm include in Non Milk
7
396
841
432
108
58
314
(7) $
469
663
375
299
454
41
41
44
57
42
138
43
23
33
22
19
25
28
46
Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production
399 $ 3,759
416 $ 4,314
421 $ 4,343
476 $ 4,725
482 $ 5,033
466 $ 4,451
475 $ 4,322
448 $ 4,479
463 $ 4,492
440 $ 4,605
465 $ 4,287
456 $ 4,461
458 $ 4,437
455 $ 4,505
EBITDA 8
$
$ 1,347
$
$ 1,072
$ 1,787
$
$
$
$
$ 1,071
$ 1,180
$
$
$ 1,016
921
949
604
25
642
907
597
949
879
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 8C Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks Footnotes -- Accrual Summary of All Farms Average Number of Cows Milk Shipped per Cow Milk Income
Footnotes:
Cost of Goods Sold Labor Hired Feed Purchases Custom Hire Crop Expense 1 Gasoline, Fuel, Oil Livestock Expense 2 Advertising/Milk Marketing Exp. Replacement L/S Purchased Other Expense Less Non-Milk Income 3 Total Cost of Goods Sold
1
Crop Expense = Chemicals + Fertilizer, Lime + Seed, Plant Purchases
2
Livestock Expense = Supply Purchases + Bedding + Production Enhancers + Veterinary, Breeding, etc. + Hoof Care + DHIA
3
Non-Milk Income = Livestock sales + rents + cash crops + Cooperative Distributions + Ag Program Payments + Interest income + Wages
4
Owner Draw = Income Taxes/Social Security + Living Expenses/Partner Draws
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
5
Net Cost of Production = Total Cost of Goods Sold + Total Overhead
Net Margin or Net Income
6
Net Cost of Production = Accrual based break even milk price
7
Non Farm income amount included in Non-Milk Income -- This is used in calculating EBITDA for comparison to AgChoice trend forms
8
EBITDA is calculated by adding Depreciation, Interest, Owner Draws, & Non-Farm income back to Net Margin
Gross Margin Overhead Repairs, Maintenance Interest Expense Rent RE Taxes Insurance Utilities Owner Draw 4 Depreciation Expense Total Overhead
Non-Farm include in Non Milk
7
Principal Payments Breakeven Cost of Production EBITDA 8
26
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Exhibit 8D
Historical Northeast All Farms - EBITD per Cow 2000
1800
1600
1400
$ per cow
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Annual EBITDA per cow
15 year Average
10 year Average
5 year Average
3 year Average
Linear (Annual EBITDA per cow)
Linear (15 year Average)
Linear (10 year Average)
Linear (5 year Average)
Linear (3 year Average)
27
2022
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 8E Cost of Production Trends Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Source: Northeast Dairy Farm Summary Benchmarks Accrual Summary for All Farms
$24.00
$20.00
$16.00
$12.00
$8.00
$4.00
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
$-
$(4.00) Milk Income
Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6
Net Margin or Net Income
Linear (Milk Income)
Linear (Net Cost of Production (COP) 5,6)
Linear (Net Margin or Net Income)
28
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 9 Trend of Dairy Livestock Values Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 2500
Dairy Cows Spring Heifers
1500
Open Heifers Heifer Calves
1000
500
0
9/2/2015 11/4/2015 1/6/2016 3/2/2016 5/4/2016 7/6/2016 8/31/2016 11/2/2016 1/4/2017 3/1/2017 5/3/2017 7/5/2017 9/6/2017 11/1/2017 1/3/2018 2/28/2018 5/2/2018 7/4/2018 8/29/2018 10/31/2018 12/19/2018 2/27/2019 4/17/2019 7/3/2019 9/4/2019 11/6/2019 12/18/2019 2/19/2020 5/29/2019 7/31/2019 10/2/2019 12/4/2019 2/5/2020 7/8/2020 11/15/2020 8/31/2021 3/9/2022 5-Yr. Ave. 3-Yr. Ave. 12 mo. Ave.
$ Per Cow
2000
Comments: 1) The table above is a summary of data taken from the AgChoice Appraisal Department's livestock summary excel file that summarizes values they review and compile from USDA Department of Ag News New Holland, PA Auction.
29
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 10 PA Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $14.60 $16.30 $20.85 $23.90 $20.04 $22.60 $14.45 $17.90 $18.28 $20.30 $22.12 $24.20 $20.01 $23.60 $21.42 $23.40 $25.64 $27.40 $18.48 $20.30 $17.18 $19.40 $18.66 $20.00 $16.87 $18.10 $19.16 $21.00 $18.11 $20.20 $19.08 $22.30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $16.30 $16.20 $22.60 $16.20 $18.00 $18.90 $20.90 $21.40 $24.90 $19.20 $17.40 $20.00 $17.00 $17.70 $20.20 $17.30
Feb $15.80 $16.50 $21.00 $13.50 $18.10 $20.70 $19.60 $21.10 $25.90 $18.30 $17.10 $19.60 $15.90 $17.90 $19.40 $17.40
Mar $14.80 $17.20 $19.10 $13.00 $17.00 $22.00 $19.00 $20.70 $26.70 $17.70 $16.30 $18.80 $16.00 $18.50 $18.90 $17.90
Apr $13.80 $18.00 $19.90 $13.40 $16.30 $21.50 $18.40 $20.08 $26.80 $17.60 $16.20 $17.60 $16.40 $18.30 $15.30 $18.40
May $13.50 $19.30 $19.50 $13.40 $16.90 $22.10 $17.90 $21.00 $26.20 $17.80 $15.90 $17.40 $16.70 $18.60 $14.00 $19.30
Jun $13.50 $21.30 $20.30 $12.90 $17.50 $22.90 $17.50 $21.00 $25.10 $18.10 $15.80 $18.20 $17.00 $18.80 $16.30 $19.10
Jul $13.50 $23.40 $21.40 $13.00 $18.10 $23.50 $18.00 $20.70 $25.40 $17.60 $16.90 $18.60 $16.20 $19.10 $19.30 $18.50
Aug $13.80 $23.80 $20.50 $13.30 $18.50 $24.20 $18.90 $21.00 $26.30 $17.60 $17.50 $19.20 $16.40 $19.40 $18.10 $18.40
Sep $14.10 $23.80 $20.50 $14.20 $19.60 $23.80 $20.80 $21.70 $27.40 $18.90 $17.90 $19.00 $17.10 $19.60 $18.00 $19.00
Oct $15.20 $23.60 $19.40 $15.80 $20.30 $22.20 $22.80 $22.00 $26.10 $19.40 $17.70 $18.60 $18.10 $20.10 $18.80 $19.90
Nov $15.40 $23.90 $19.20 $16.80 $20.20 $22.20 $23.60 $23.00 $24.30 $20.30 $18.10 $18.70 $18.00 $21.00 $20.20 $21.50
Dec $15.50 $23.20 $17.10 $17.90 $18.90 $21.40 $22.70 $23.40 $22.60 $19.20 $19.40 $18.20 $17.60 $20.90 $18.80 $22.30
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$24.80 $24.12 $18.87
$23.91 $23.25
$25.12 $22.67
$25.66 $22.26
$26.12 $22.07
$26.09 $21.50
$26.00 $21.10
$26.00 $20.90
$25.88 $21.45
$25.71 $18.76
$25.45 $18.76
$25.92 $19.01
$25.56 $21.32 $18.87
$26.12 $24.12 $18.87
$23.91 $18.76 $18.87
3-Year Average* $18.40 $18.23
3-Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
Low $13.50 $16.20 $17.10 $12.90 $16.30 $18.90 $17.50 $20.08 $22.60 $17.60 $15.80 $17.40 $15.90 $17.70 $14.00 $17.30
$18.43
$17.33
$17.30
$18.07
$18.97
$18.63
$18.87
$19.60
$20.90
$20.67
$18.78
$20.90
$17.30
$17.90
$18.50
$18.30
$18.60
$18.80
$19.10
$18.40
$19.00
$19.90
$21.00
$20.90
$19.01
$21.00
$17.70
5-Year Average* $18.44 $18.04
$17.70
$18.02
$17.20
$17.20
$17.88
$18.34
$18.30
$18.54
$19.10
$19.88
$19.56
$18.38
$19.88
$17.20
$18.23
$18.40
$17.43
$17.57
$18.00
$18.73
$18.57
$18.67
$19.10
$19.97
$19.30
$18.53
$19.97
$17.43
10-Year Average* $19.60 $19.22
$19.05
$18.51
$18.48
$18.69
$19.03
$19.28
$19.94
$20.35
$20.87
$20.51
$19.46
$20.87
$18.48
$18.48
$17.87
$18.08
$18.25
$18.59
$18.76
$19.36
$19.96
$20.80
$20.51
$19.06
$20.80
$17.87
$18.33
$19.26
$18.80
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: PA milk prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
30
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table 11A Class III Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $11.89 $13.47 $10.83 $18.04 $21.38 $13.56 $17.44 $20.25 $15.28 $11.36 $14.98 $9.31 $14.41 $16.94 $12.78 $18.36 $21.55 $13.48 $17.44 $21.02 $15.23 $17.99 $18.95 $16.93 $22.34 $24.60 $17.82 $15.80 $16.72 $14.44 $14.86 $17.40 $12.76 $16.17 $16.88 $15.22 $14.61 $16.09 $13.40 $16.96 $20.45 $13.89 $18.16 $24.54 $12.14 $17.08 $18.96 $15.75
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $13.39 $13.56 $19.32 $10.78 $14.50 $13.48 $17.05 $18.14 $21.15 $16.18 $13.72 $16.77 $14.00 $13.96 $17.05 $16.04
Feb $12.20 $14.18 $17.03 $9.31 $14.28 $17.00 $16.06 $17.25 $23.35 $15.46 $13.80 $16.88 $13.40 $13.89 $17.00 $15.75
Mar $11.11 $15.09 $18.00 $10.44 $12.78 $19.40 $15.72 $16.93 $23.33 $15.56 $13.74 $15.81 $14.22 $15.04 $16.25 $16.15
Apr $10.93 $16.09 $16.76 $10.78 $12.92 $16.87 $15.72 $17.59 $24.31 $15.81 $13.63 $15.22 $14.47 $15.96 $13.07 $17.67
May $10.83 $17.60 $18.18 $9.84 $13.38 $16.52 $15.23 $18.52 $22.57 $16.19 $12.76 $15.57 $15.18 $16.38 $12.14 $18.96
Jun $11.29 $20.17 $20.25 $9.97 $13.62 $19.11 $15.63 $18.02 $21.36 $16.72 $13.22 $16.44 $15.21 $16.27 $21.04 $17.21
Jul $10.92 $21.38 $18.24 $9.97 $13.74 $21.39 $16.68 $17.38 $21.60 $16.33 $15.24 $15.45 $14.10 $17.55 $24.54 $16.49
Aug $11.06 $19.83 $17.32 $11.20 $15.18 $21.55 $17.73 $17.91 $22.25 $16.27 $16.91 $16.57 $14.95 $17.60 $19.77 $15.95
Sep $12.29 $20.07 $16.28 $12.11 $16.26 $19.07 $19.00 $18.14 $24.60 $15.82 $16.36 $16.36 $16.09 $18.31 $16.43 $16.53
Oct $12.32 $18.70 $17.06 $12.82 $16.94 $18.03 $21.02 $18.22 $23.82 $15.46 $14.82 $16.69 $15.53 $18.72 $21.61 $17.83
Nov $12.84 $19.22 $15.51 $14.08 $15.44 $19.07 $20.83 $18.83 $21.94 $15.30 $16.76 $16.88 $14.44 $20.45 $23.34 $18.03
Dec $13.47 $20.60 $15.28 $14.98 $13.83 $18.77 $18.66 $18.95 $17.82 $14.44 $17.40 $15.44 $13.78 $19.37 $15.72 $18.36
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$20.38 $21.62 $16.37
$20.91 $21.00
$22.37 $20.67
$23.41 $20.26
$23.87 $20.32
$24.09 $20.00
$24.00 $19.60
$24.00 $19.40
$23.88 $19.20
$23.46 $17.01
$22.95 $17.01
$22.42 $17.01
$22.98 $19.43 $16.37
$24.09 $21.62 $16.37
$20.38 $17.01 $16.37
3-Year Average* $15.68 $15.55
3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
$15.81
$15.57
$15.83
$18.17
$19.53
$17.77
$17.09
$19.39
$20.61
$17.82
$17.40
$20.61
$15.55
$15.75
$16.15
$15.96
$16.38
$17.21
$17.55
$17.60
$16.53
$18.72
$20.45
$18.36
$17.23
$20.45
$15.75
5-Year Average* $15.56 $15.38
$16.04
$15.49
$15.28
$15.65
$17.23
$17.63
$16.97
$16.74
$18.08
$18.63
$16.53
$16.60
$18.63
$15.28
$15.51
$15.83
$15.79
$16.57
$17.30
$16.50
$16.71
$16.44
$17.98
$18.45
$16.51
$16.61
$18.45
$15.51
10-Year Average* $16.41 $16.28
$16.28
$16.35
$16.35
$17.11
$17.54
$17.59
$17.76
$18.37
$18.68
$16.99
$17.14
$18.68
$16.28
$15.71
$15.76
$16.10
$17.07
$17.09
$17.34
$17.15
$18.14
$18.63
$17.10
$16.83
$18.63
$15.71
$15.68
$16.15
$15.76
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class III prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
31
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 11B Class III Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Class III Prices -- 3-Year Average $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 $15.00 $13.00 $11.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Class III Ave. Price
Apr
May
Minimum 90% C.I.
Jun
Jul
Maximum 90% C.I.
Aug
Sep
Proj. 2022
Oct Proj. 2023
Nov
Dec
Proj. 2024
Class III Prices -- 5-Year Average $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 $15.00 $13.00 $11.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Class III Ave. Price
Apr
May
Minimum 90% C.I.
Jun
Jul
Maximum 90% C.I.
Aug
Sep
Proj. 2022
Oct Proj. 2023
Nov
Dec
Proj. 2024
Class III Prices -- 10-Year Average $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 $15.00 $13.00 $11.00
Jan
Feb
Class III Ave. Price
Mar
Apr Minimum 90% C.I.
May
Jun
Jul
Maximum 90% C.I.
32
Aug Proj. 2022
Sep
Oct Proj. 2023
Nov
Dec
Proj. 2024
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 12 PA Basis for Class III Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $2.71 $3.69 $2.81 $4.90 $2.61 $4.22 $3.09 $5.42 $3.88 $5.07 $3.76 $5.58 $2.56 $4.04 $3.43 $4.45 $3.30 $4.78 $2.68 $5.00 $2.32 $3.68 $2.49 $3.23 $2.25 $3.82 $2.20 $4.01 -$0.05 $3.15 $2.00 $3.94
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $2.91 $2.64 $3.28 $5.42 $3.50 $5.42 $3.85 $3.26 $3.75 $3.02 $3.68 $3.23 $3.00 $3.74 $3.15 $1.26
Feb $3.60 $2.32 $3.97 $4.19 $3.82 $3.70 $3.54 $3.85 $2.55 $2.84 $3.30 $2.72 $2.50 $4.01 $2.40 $1.65
Mar $3.69 $2.11 $1.10 $2.56 $4.22 $2.60 $3.28 $3.77 $3.37 $2.14 $2.56 $2.99 $1.78 $3.46 $2.65 $1.75
Apr $2.87 $1.91 $3.14 $2.62 $3.38 $4.63 $2.68 $2.49 $2.49 $1.79 $2.57 $2.38 $1.93 $2.34 $2.23 $0.73
May $2.67 $1.70 $1.32 $3.56 $3.52 $5.58 $2.67 $2.48 $3.63 $1.61 $3.14 $1.83 $1.52 $2.22 $1.86 $0.34
Jun $2.21 $1.13 $0.05 $2.93 $3.88 $3.79 $1.87 $2.98 $3.74 $1.38 $2.58 $1.76 $1.79 $2.53 -$4.74 $1.89
Jul $2.58 $2.02 $3.16 $3.03 $4.36 $2.11 $1.32 $3.32 $3.80 $1.27 $1.66 $3.15 $2.10 $1.55 -$5.24 $2.01
Aug $2.74 $3.97 $3.18 $2.10 $3.32 $2.65 $1.17 $3.09 $4.05 $1.33 $0.59 $2.63 $1.45 $1.80 -$1.67 $2.45
Sep $1.81 $3.73 $4.22 $2.09 $3.34 $4.73 $1.80 $3.56 $2.80 $3.08 $1.54 $2.64 $1.01 $1.29 $1.57 $2.47
Oct $2.88 $4.90 $2.34 $2.98 $3.36 $4.17 $1.78 $3.78 $2.28 $3.94 $2.88 $1.91 $2.57 $1.38 -$2.81 $2.07
Nov $2.56 $4.68 $3.69 $2.72 $4.76 $3.13 $2.77 $4.17 $2.36 $5.00 $1.34 $1.82 $3.56 $0.55 -$3.14 $3.47
Dec $2.03 $2.60 $1.82 $2.92 $5.07 $2.63 $4.04 $4.45 $4.78 $4.76 $2.00 $2.76 $3.82 $1.53 $3.08 $3.94
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$4.42 $2.50 $2.50
$3.00 $2.25 $2.25
$2.75 $2.00 $2.00
$2.25 $2.00 $2.00
$2.25 $1.75 $1.75
$2.00 $1.50 $1.50
$2.00 $1.50 $1.50
$2.00 $1.50 $1.50
$2.00 $2.25 $2.50
$2.25 $1.75 $1.75
$2.50 $1.75 $1.75
$3.50 $2.00 $2.75
$2.58 $1.90 $1.98
$4.42 $2.50 $2.75
$2.00 $1.50 $1.50
3-Year Average* $2.72 $2.69
3-Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
Low $1.81 $1.13 $0.05 $2.09 $3.32 $2.11 $1.17 $2.48 $2.28 $1.27 $0.59 $1.76 $1.01 $0.55 -$5.24 $0.34
$2.62
$1.77
$1.47
-$0.11
-$0.56
$0.86
$1.78
$0.21
$0.29
$2.85
$1.38
$2.85
-$0.56
$2.40
$2.65
$2.23
$1.86
$1.89
$1.55
$1.80
$1.57
$1.38
$0.55
$3.08
$2.01
$3.15
$0.55
5-Year Average* $2.88 $2.66
$2.53
$1.92
$1.55
$0.65
$0.71
$1.33
$1.80
$1.02
$1.25
$3.03
$1.78
$3.03
$0.65
$2.47
$2.17
$1.74
$1.81
$1.89
$1.90
$1.78
$1.79
$1.95
$3.22
$2.20
$3.22
$1.74
$2.78 $ $2.78
$2.16 $ $2.28
$2.13 $ $2.17
$1.58 $ $2.10
$1.49 $ $2.05
$1.69 $ $1.81
$2.18 $ $2.15
$1.98 $ $2.33
$2.19 $ $2.51
$3.52 $ $3.61
$2.32
$3.52
$1.49
$2.51
$3.61
$1.81
$3.15
$3.13
$2.54
10-Year Average* $3.19 $2.94 $ $ $3.35
$2.96
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class III basis after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
33
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 13A Class IV Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $11.06 $12.30 $18.36 $21.87 $14.65 $16.64 $10.89 $15.01 $15.06 $17.15 $19.04 $21.05 $16.01 $18.66 $19.05 $21.54 $22.09 $23.89 $14.35 $16.89 $13.77 $14.97 $15.16 $16.61 $14.23 $15.09 $16.30 $16.90 $13.49 $16.65 $16.09 $19.88
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $12.20 $12.53 $16.29 $9.59 $13.85 $16.42 $16.56 $17.63 $22.29 $13.23 $13.31 $16.19 $13.13 $15.48 $16.65 $13.75
Feb $11.10 $12.71 $14.67 $9.45 $12.90 $18.40 $15.92 $17.75 $23.46 $13.82 $13.49 $15.59 $12.87 $15.86 $16.20 $13.19
Mar $10.68 $13.71 $14.17 $9.64 $12.92 $19.41 $15.35 $17.75 $23.66 $13.80 $12.74 $14.32 $13.04 $15.71 $14.87 $14.18
Apr $10.36 $16.12 $14.56 $9.82 $13.73 $19.78 $14.80 $18.10 $23.34 $13.51 $12.68 $14.01 $13.48 $15.72 $11.40 $15.42
May $10.33 $18.48 $15.26 $10.14 $15.29 $20.29 $13.55 $18.89 $22.65 $13.91 $13.09 $14.49 $14.57 $16.29 $10.67 $16.16
Jun $10.22 $20.76 $15.92 $10.22 $15.45 $21.05 $13.24 $18.88 $23.13 $13.90 $13.77 $15.89 $14.91 $16.83 $12.90 $16.35
Jul $10.21 $21.64 $16.60 $10.15 $15.75 $20.33 $14.45 $18.90 $23.78 $13.15 $14.84 $16.60 $14.14 $16.90 $13.76 $16.00
Aug $10.64 $21.87 $16.64 $10.38 $15.18 $20.14 $15.76 $19.07 $23.89 $12.90 $14.65 $16.61 $14.63 $16.74 $12.53 $15.92
Sep $11.10 $21.61 $15.45 $11.15 $16.76 $19.53 $17.41 $19.43 $22.58 $15.08 $14.25 $15.86 $14.81 $16.35 $12.75 $16.36
Oct $11.51 $21.31 $13.62 $11.86 $17.15 $18.41 $18.54 $20.17 $21.35 $16.43 $13.66 $14.85 $15.01 $16.39 $13.47 $17.04
Nov $12.11 $20.40 $12.25 $13.25 $16.68 $17.87 $18.66 $20.52 $18.21 $16.89 $13.76 $13.99 $15.06 $16.60 $13.30 $18.79
Dec $12.30 $19.18 $10.35 $15.01 $15.03 $16.87 $17.83 $21.54 $16.70 $15.52 $14.97 $13.51 $15.09 $16.70 $13.36 $19.88
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$23.09 $22.50 $18.70
$24.00 $21.85 $18.15
$24.80 $21.32
$25.05 $20.80
$25.15 $20.05
$24.97 $19.73
$24.90 $19.65
$25.00 $19.20
$24.70 $19.20
$24.25 $18.70
$23.90 $18.70
$23.40 $18.70
$24.43 $20.03 $18.43
$25.15 $22.50 $18.70
$23.09 $18.70 $18.15
$14.92 $ $14.87
$14.18 $ $15.42
$14.37 $ $16.16
$15.36 $ $16.35
$15.55 $ $16.00
$15.06 $ $15.92
$15.15 $ $16.35
$15.63 $ $16.39
$16.23 $ $16.60
$16.65 $ $16.70
$15.29
$16.65
$14.18
$16.01
$16.70
$14.87
$14.42 $ $14.46
$14.01 $ $14.30
$14.44 $ $15.07
$15.38 $ $15.72
$15.48 $ $15.58
$15.29 $ $15.72
$15.23 $ $15.67
$15.35 $ $15.42
$15.55 $ $15.22
$15.71 $ $15.10
$15.05
$15.71
$14.01
$15.19
$15.72
$14.30
$15.54 $ $14.88
$15.25 $ $14.72
$15.43 $ $15.12
$15.98 $ $15.47
$16.25 $ $15.70
$16.27 $ $15.79
$16.49 $ $16.19
$16.69 $ $16.51
$16.58 $ $16.50
$16.51 $ $16.28
$16.05
$16.69
$15.25
$15.64
$16.51
$14.72
3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
3-Year Average* $15.29 $15.08 $ $ $15.48
$15.86
5-Year Average* $15.04 $14.74 $ $ $15.14
$14.88
10-Year Average* $15.82 $15.82 $ $ $15.35
$15.23
Low $10.21 $12.53 $10.35 $9.45 $12.90 $16.42 $13.24 $17.63 $16.70 $12.90 $12.68 $13.51 $12.87 $15.48 $10.67 $13.19
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class IV prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
34
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 13B Class IV Milk Price Information Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Class IV Prices -- 3-Year Average $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Class IV Ave. Price
Apr
May
Minimum 90% C.I.
Jun
Jul
Maximum 90% C.I.
Aug
Sep
Proj. 2022
Oct Proj. 2023
Nov
Dec Proj. 2024
Class IV Prices -- 5-Year Average $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Class IV Ave. Price
Apr
May
Minimum 90% C.I.
Jun
Jul
Maximum 90% C.I.
Aug
Sep
Proj. 2022
Oct Proj. 2023
Nov
Dec
Proj. 2024
Class IV Prices -- 10-Year Average $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00
Jan
Feb
Class IV Ave. Price
Mar
Apr Minimum 90% C.I.
May
Jun
Jul
Maximum 90% C.I.
35
Aug Proj. 2022
Sep
Oct Proj. 2023
Nov
Dec
Proj. 2024
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Exhibit 14 PA Basis for Class IV Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High $3.54 $4.70 $2.49 $4.02 $5.39 $6.95 $3.56 $6.61 $3.23 $5.20 $3.08 $4.53 $4.00 $4.94 $2.37 $3.77 $3.56 $6.09 $4.13 $5.97 $3.42 $4.43 $3.50 $4.71 $2.64 $3.87 $2.86 $4.40 $4.62 $6.90 $3.00 $4.21
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $4.10 $3.67 $6.31 $6.61 $4.15 $2.48 $4.34 $3.77 $2.61 $5.97 $4.09 $3.81 $3.87 $2.22 $3.55 $3.55
Feb $4.70 $3.79 $6.33 $4.05 $5.20 $2.30 $3.68 $3.35 $2.44 $4.48 $3.61 $4.01 $3.03 $2.04 $3.20 $4.21
Mar $4.12 $3.49 $4.93 $3.36 $4.08 $2.59 $3.65 $2.95 $3.04 $3.90 $3.56 $4.48 $2.96 $2.79 $4.03 $3.72
Apr $3.44 $1.88 $5.34 $3.58 $2.57 $1.72 $3.60 $1.98 $3.46 $4.09 $3.52 $3.59 $2.92 $2.58 $3.90 $2.98
May $3.17 $0.82 $4.24 $3.26 $1.61 $1.81 $4.35 $2.11 $3.55 $3.89 $2.81 $2.91 $2.13 $2.31 $3.33 $3.14
Jun $3.28 $0.54 $4.38 $2.68 $2.05 $1.85 $4.26 $2.12 $1.97 $4.20 $2.03 $2.31 $2.09 $1.97 $3.40 $2.75
Jul $3.29 $1.76 $4.80 $2.85 $2.35 $3.17 $3.55 $1.80 $1.62 $4.45 $2.06 $2.00 $2.06 $2.20 $5.54 $2.50
Aug $3.16 $1.93 $3.86 $2.92 $3.32 $4.06 $3.14 $1.93 $2.41 $4.70 $2.85 $2.59 $1.77 $2.66 $5.57 $2.48
Sep $3.00 $2.19 $5.05 $3.05 $2.84 $4.27 $3.39 $2.27 $4.82 $3.82 $3.65 $3.14 $2.29 $3.25 $5.25 $2.64
Oct $3.69 $2.29 $5.78 $3.94 $3.15 $3.79 $4.26 $1.83 $4.75 $2.97 $4.04 $3.75 $3.09 $3.71 $5.33 $2.86
Nov $3.29 $3.50 $6.95 $3.55 $3.52 $4.33 $4.94 $2.48 $6.09 $3.41 $4.34 $4.71 $2.94 $4.40 $6.90 $2.71
Dec $3.20 $4.02 $6.75 $2.89 $3.87 $4.53 $4.87 $1.86 $5.90 $3.68 $4.43 $4.69 $2.51 $4.20 $5.44 $2.42
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$1.71 $1.62 $0.17
-$0.09 $1.40 $0.00
$0.32 $1.35 $0.00
$0.61 $1.46 $0.00
$0.97 $2.02 $0.00
$1.12 $1.77 $0.00
$1.10 $1.45 $0.00
$1.00 $1.70 $0.00
$1.18 $2.25 $0.00
$1.46 $0.06 $0.00
$1.55 $0.06 $0.00
$2.52 $0.31 $0.00
$1.12 $1.29 $0.01
$2.52 $2.25 $0.17
-$0.09 $0.06 $0.00
3-Year Average* $3.11 $3.15
3-Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10-Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
Low $3.00 $0.54 $3.86 $2.68 $1.61 $1.72 $3.14 $1.80 $1.62 $2.97 $2.03 $2.00 $1.77 $1.97 $3.20 $2.42
$3.51
$3.15
$2.93
$2.71
$3.41
$3.57
$3.71
$3.97
$4.67
$4.02
$3.49
$4.67
$2.71
$3.20
$3.72
$2.98
$3.14
$2.75
$2.50
$2.66
$3.25
$3.71
$4.40
$4.20
$3.34
$4.40
$2.50
5-Year Average* $3.40 $3.30
$3.60
$3.19
$2.76
$2.50
$2.86
$3.01
$3.31
$3.75
$4.33
$3.85
$3.32
$4.33
$2.50
$3.57
$3.16
$2.79
$2.38
$2.25
$2.58
$3.01
$3.52
$4.02
$3.80
$3.18
$4.02
$2.25
$3.51 $ $3.48
$3.26 $ $3.32
$3.05 $ $3.01
$2.71 $ $2.61
$2.78 $ $2.58
$3.01 $ $2.85
$3.45 $ $3.38
$3.66 $ $3.68
$4.29 $ $4.19
$4.00 $ $4.03
$3.41
$4.29
$2.71
$3.35
$4.19
$2.58
$3.55
$3.64
$3.41
10-Year Average* $3.78 $3.41 $ $ $3.70
$3.44
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class IV Basis after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
36
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table 15 Cheese Price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $1.2470 $1.3895 $1.1612 $1.7380 $2.0976 $1.3366 $1.8954 $2.1609 $1.7511 $1.2966 $1.5969 $1.1334 $1.5226 $1.7666 $1.3632 $1.8246 $2.1402 $1.4076 $1.7076 $2.0479 $1.5215 $1.7683 $1.8761 $1.6467 $2.1551 $2.3547 $1.7362 $1.6454 $1.7386 $1.5446 $1.6050 $1.8119 $1.4104 $1.6344 $1.7617 $1.4960 $1.5377 $1.6533 $1.3742 $1.7595 $2.1723 $1.3868 $1.9276 $2.5873 $1.3049 $1.6755 $1.8206 $1.5680
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $1.3895 $1.3366 $1.9998 $1.2961 $1.5374 $1.4076 $1.6097 $1.7485 $2.0838 $1.5807 $1.5178 $1.7011 $1.5175 $1.3868 $1.8092 $1.6502
Feb $1.2637 $1.3454 $1.8403 $1.1518 $1.5110 $1.7449 $1.5410 $1.6623 $2.2864 $1.5446 $1.5170 $1.6871 $1.4727 $1.3940 $1.7884 $1.5954
Mar $1.1612 $1.3732 $1.9575 $1.2611 $1.3632 $1.9722 $1.5248 $1.6467 $2.2689 $1.5750 $1.5162 $1.5551 $1.5542 $1.5383 $1.7091 $1.5981
Apr $1.1654 $1.4296 $1.8164 $1.2771 $1.3827 $1.6983 $1.5361 $1.7310 $2.3547 $1.6122 $1.5041 $1.4960 $1.5737 $1.6468 $1.4026 $1.7106
May $1.1694 $1.5946 $1.9525 $1.1553 $1.4257 $1.6534 $1.5215 $1.8274 $2.1703 $1.6557 $1.4104 $1.5390 $1.6353 $1.6974 $1.3049 $1.8206
Jun $1.2166 $1.8561 $2.1609 $1.1466 $1.4475 $1.8999 $1.5846 $1.7810 $2.0358 $1.7222 $1.4477 $1.6293 $1.6150 $1.6768 $2.2566 $1.6439
Jul $1.1793 $2.0002 $1.9585 $1.1334 $1.4567 $2.1243 $1.6857 $1.7142 $2.0482 $1.6997 $1.6419 $1.5430 $1.4868 $1.8486 $2.5873 $1.5956
Aug $1.1813 $1.9100 $1.8699 $1.2605 $1.6031 $2.1402 $1.7682 $1.7731 $2.1074 $1.7386 $1.8119 $1.6664 $1.5544 $1.8276 $2.1099 $1.5680
Sep $1.2912 $2.0250 $1.7773 $1.3522 $1.7016 $1.8592 $1.8647 $1.7961 $2.3472 $1.7145 $1.7514 $1.6608 $1.6533 $1.9053 $1.7741 $1.6411
Oct $1.2721 $1.9227 $1.9065 $1.4110 $1.7666 $1.7471 $2.0479 $1.8025 $2.2914 $1.6790 $1.5830 $1.7254 $1.5686 $1.9694 $2.2921 $1.7698
Nov $1.3123 $1.9652 $1.7511 $1.5169 $1.6152 $1.8415 $2.0146 $1.8612 $2.1305 $1.6503 $1.7596 $1.7617 $1.4463 $2.1723 $2.4535 $1.7588
Dec $1.3624 $2.0976 $1.7544 $1.5969 $1.4606 $1.8070 $1.7925 $1.8761 $1.7362 $1.5719 $1.7990 $1.6481 $1.3742 $2.0509 $1.6433 $1.7542
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$1.8978 $2.1250 $1.6750
$1.9068 $2.0850 $1.6510
$2.0450 $2.0550
$2.1750 $2.0150
$2.2320 $2.0000
$2.2590 $1.9500
$2.2700 $1.8750
$2.2800 $1.8750
$2.2780 $1.8750
$2.2600 $1.7500
$2.2280 $1.7500
$2.1800 $1.6750
$2.1676 $1.9192 $1.6630
$2.2800 $2.1250 $1.6750
$1.8978 $1.6750 $1.6510
3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
3-Year Average* $1.6154 $1.5926
$1.6152
$1.5867
$1.6076
$1.8591
$2.0105
$1.8352
$1.7735
$2.0104
$2.1282
$1.8161
$1.7875
$2.1282
$1.5867
$1.5954
$1.5981
$1.6468
$1.6974
$1.6768
$1.8486
$1.8276
$1.7741
$1.9694
$2.1723
$1.7542
$1.7676
$2.1723
$1.5954
5-Year Average* $1.6130 $1.5875
$1.6502
$1.5910
$1.5659
$1.5994
$1.7643
$1.8123
$1.7453
$1.7269
$1.8651
$1.9185
$1.6941
$1.7069
$1.9185
$1.5659
$1.5851
$1.5691
$1.5722
$1.6239
$1.6500
$1.6624
$1.6873
$1.6961
$1.8215
$1.8976
$1.6819
$1.6725
$1.8976
$1.5691
10-Year Average* $1.6605 $1.6489
$1.6486
$1.6568
$1.6583
$1.7393
$1.7851
$1.7926
$1.8109
$1.8729
$1.9009
$1.7246
$1.7416
$1.9009
$1.6486
$1.5877
$1.6013
$1.6384
$1.7111
$1.7221
$1.7827
$1.7650
$1.8586
$1.8886
$1.7277
$1.7105
$1.8886
$1.5877
$1.6229
$1.6418
$1.6011
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Cheese prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
37
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table 16 Butterfat price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $1.3252 $1.4684 $1.2228 $1.4693 $1.6457 $1.3009 $1.5668 $1.8507 $1.2998 $1.2571 $1.5433 $1.0941 $1.8535 $2.4436 $1.4404 $2.1560 $2.3702 $1.7743 $1.7230 $2.1136 $1.4462 $1.6634 $1.8227 $1.5104 $2.3792 $3.2467 $1.7874 $2.2954 $3.1830 $1.6855 $2.3084 $2.5964 $2.0493 $2.6143 $3.0109 $2.3548 $2.5258 $2.6692 $2.3490 $2.5088 $2.6858 $2.1952 $1.7067 $2.1117 $1.3218 $1.8904 $2.2919 $1.4376
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $1.4684 $1.3009 $1.3319 $1.1084 $1.4405 $2.0239 $1.7178 $1.6168 $1.7874 $1.6855 $2.3062 $2.5253 $2.4531 $2.4981 $2.1117 $1.5541
Feb $1.3469 $1.3112 $1.3010 $1.0941 $1.4404 $2.2967 $1.5739 $1.6619 $2.0109 $1.8296 $2.3778 $2.4274 $2.3490 $2.5345 $1.9813 $1.4376
Mar $1.2596 $1.3769 $1.3604 $1.1594 $1.5347 $2.2859 $1.5297 $1.7476 $2.0402 $1.8444 $2.2028 $2.4176 $2.4273 $2.5461 $1.9177 $1.7176
Apr $1.2343 $1.4657 $1.4748 $1.2049 $1.5813 $2.2113 $1.5645 $1.8227 $2.1207 $1.8940 $2.2376 $2.3548 $2.5113 $2.5375 $1.3218 $1.9496
May $1.2582 $1.5706 $1.5562 $1.2648 $1.7058 $2.2497 $1.4462 $1.7884 $2.2721 $2.0599 $2.2846 $2.4134 $2.6239 $2.5718 $1.3756 $1.9851
Jun $1.2436 $1.6457 $1.6160 $1.2544 $1.7234 $2.3702 $1.4866 $1.6599 $2.4413 $2.1011 $2.4109 $2.7066 $2.6692 $2.6579 $1.8591 $1.9641
Jul $1.2228 $1.6110 $1.6774 $1.2438 $1.8964 $2.2511 $1.6556 $1.5693 $2.6349 $2.1125 $2.5964 $2.9456 $2.5287 $2.6858 $1.9583 $1.8996
Aug $1.3008 $1.5872 $1.7413 $1.2491 $2.0336 $2.2985 $1.8339 $1.5104 $2.8448 $2.2674 $2.4873 $3.0109 $2.6009 $2.6574 $1.6275 $1.8508
Sep $1.4191 $1.5101 $1.8196 $1.2226 $2.4044 $2.2005 $2.0047 $1.5196 $3.2467 $2.7531 $2.3082 $2.8559 $2.5442 $2.4982 $1.5932 $1.9388
Oct $1.4149 $1.4092 $1.8507 $1.2752 $2.4436 $1.9592 $2.1136 $1.6638 $2.8507 $2.9087 $2.0493 $2.6646 $2.5551 $2.4031 $1.6388 $1.9414
Nov $1.3852 $1.4077 $1.7730 $1.4656 $2.2422 $1.9508 $2.0218 $1.6336 $2.2011 $3.1830 $2.1044 $2.5546 $2.5385 $2.3195 $1.5553 $2.1541
Dec $1.3481 $1.4348 $1.2998 $1.5433 $1.7952 $1.7743 $1.7276 $1.7672 $2.0991 $2.9057 $2.3354 $2.4951 $2.5080 $2.1952 $1.5399 $2.2919
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$2.9567 $2.6987 $2.4998
$3.0218 $2.5809 $2.4362
$3.0560 $2.5773
$3.0484 $2.4998
$3.0148 $2.5004
$3.0003 $2.4989
$2.9957 $2.4998
$3.0045 $2.4998
$3.0045 $2.4998
$2.9833 $2.4998
$2.9406 $2.4998
$2.8440 $2.4998
$2.9892 $2.5296 $2.4680
$3.0560 $2.6987 $2.4998
$2.8440 $2.4989 $2.4362
3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
3-Year Average* $2.0546 $1.9845
$2.0605
$1.9363
$1.9775
$2.1604
$2.1812
$2.0452
$2.0101
$1.9944
$2.0096
$2.0090
$2.0353
$2.1812
$1.9363
$1.9813
$1.9177
$1.9496
$1.9851
$1.9641
$1.9583
$1.8508
$1.9388
$1.9414
$2.1541
$2.1952
$1.9957
$2.1952
$1.8508
5-Year Average* $2.2285 $2.1460
$2.1117
$2.2053
$2.1350
$2.1940
$2.3714
$2.4036
$2.3495
$2.2861
$2.2406
$2.2244
$2.2060
$2.2492
$2.4036
$2.1350
$2.2526
$2.2542
$2.2719
$2.3234
$2.4304
$2.3909
$2.3697
$2.3271
$2.2999
$2.3374
$2.3274
$2.3283
$2.4304
$2.2526
10-Year Average* $2.0256 $2.0184
$2.0391
$2.0315
$2.0821
$2.1957
$2.2587
$2.2691
$2.3263
$2.2789
$2.2266
$2.1865
$2.1615
$2.3263
$2.0184
$2.0394
$2.0569
$2.1027
$2.2204
$2.2590
$2.2713
$2.3120
$2.2802
$2.1910
$2.1774
$2.1632
$2.3120
$2.0221
$2.3543
$2.0221
$2.0265
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Butterfat prices after the date of outlook are Projected/Futures Prices . The Protected/Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
38
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table 17 Protein price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $2.0912 $2.4388 $1.8836 $3.5158 $4.7061 $2.4125 $3.8898 $4.7193 $3.1301 $2.2087 $2.8751 $1.6970 $2.3091 $2.7916 $2.0515 $2.9663 $3.8305 $1.7590 $3.0426 $3.7278 $2.6568 $3.3010 $3.6316 $2.8204 $3.7935 $4.7089 $2.7387 $2.2393 $2.6915 $1.3205 $2.0955 $2.8085 $1.4807 $1.8682 $2.3412 $1.2248 $1.6500 $2.0029 $1.1417 $2.3796 $3.9118 $1.1776 $3.7559 $5.6294 $2.0918 $2.7630 $3.1307 $2.4582
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $2.3994 $2.4503 $4.4994 $2.3638 $2.7916 $1.7590 $2.7326 $3.2862 $4.1870 $2.6731 $1.8169 $2.1768 $1.6612 $1.1927 $2.9606 $3.0355
Feb $2.1220 $2.4125 $4.0180 $1.9139 $2.7066 $2.5586 $2.6627 $2.9609 $4.6044 $2.4051 $1.7389 $2.2348 $1.6265 $1.1776 $3.0309 $2.9816
Mar $1.8836 $2.4329 $4.3331 $2.1973 $2.1311 $3.3024 $2.6571 $2.8204 $4.5172 $2.4875 $1.9206 $1.8198 $1.8066 $1.6303 $2.8424 $2.6954
Apr $1.9238 $2.5212 $3.7579 $2.2009 $2.1449 $2.4984 $2.6568 $3.0130 $4.7089 $2.5551 $1.8450 $1.6955 $1.7810 $1.9890 $2.4822 $2.8136
May $1.9115 $2.9424 $4.1108 $1.7454 $2.1523 $2.3133 $2.7344 $3.3597 $3.9553 $2.5206 $1.4935 $1.7723 $1.8609 $2.1159 $2.0918 $3.1307
Jun $2.0790 $3.7059 $4.7193 $1.7283 $2.2040 $2.9807 $2.8952 $3.3455 $3.3437 $2.6915 $1.4807 $1.7545 $1.7478 $2.0046 $4.5349 $2.5834
Jul $1.9807 $4.2068 $4.0025 $1.6970 $2.0515 $3.8292 $3.0430 $3.2257 $3.1798 $2.6070 $1.9112 $1.2248 $1.4868 $2.4032 $5.6294 $2.4957
Aug $1.9050 $3.9412 $3.6497 $2.1009 $2.3788 $3.8305 $3.1211 $3.4775 $3.1496 $2.5692 $2.5738 $1.5536 $1.6245 $2.4453 $4.4394 $2.4582
Sep $2.1346 $4.3929 $3.2689 $2.4243 $2.3057 $3.0282 $3.2521 $3.5419 $3.4991 $1.9801 $2.5675 $1.6988 $2.0029 $2.8633 $3.3935 $2.6010
Oct $2.0775 $4.1695 $3.5490 $2.5584 $2.4739 $2.9211 $3.7278 $3.4107 $3.7362 $1.7019 $2.2975 $2.1084 $1.7185 $3.1700 $5.0146 $3.0130
Nov $2.2383 $4.3081 $3.1301 $2.6991 $2.1981 $3.2341 $3.7172 $3.6316 $3.9018 $1.3205 $2.8085 $2.3412 $1.3419 $3.9118 $5.6226 $2.7536
Dec $2.4388 $4.7061 $3.6390 $2.8751 $2.1706 $3.3404 $3.3113 $3.5390 $2.7387 $1.3599 $2.6922 $2.0378 $1.1417 $3.6515 $3.0282 $2.5937
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$2.3563 $3.6917 $2.4511
$2.3168 $3.6868 $2.4407
$3.0577 $3.5939
$3.4846 $3.5467
$3.7036 $3.4977
$3.8059 $3.3382
$3.8461 $3.0955
$3.8691 $3.0955
$3.8627 $3.0955
$3.8270 $2.6928
$3.7688 $2.6928
$3.7159 $2.4511
$3.4679 $3.2065 $2.4459
$3.8691 $3.6917 $2.4511
$2.3168 $2.4511 $2.4407
3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
3-Year Average* $2.3963 $2.3967
$2.3894
$2.4283
$2.4461
$3.0410
$3.5094
$3.1143
$2.9526
$3.7325
$4.0960
$3.0911
$2.9661
$4.0960
$2.3894
$2.9816
$2.6954
$2.4822
$2.1159
$2.5834
$2.4957
$2.4582
$2.8633
$3.1700
$3.9118
$3.0282
$2.8122
$3.9118
$2.1159
5-Year Average* $2.2054 $2.2103
$2.9606
$2.1589
$2.1523
$2.1943
$2.5250
$2.6480
$2.5042
$2.5119
$3.0049
$3.1942
$2.4906
$2.4833
$3.1942
$2.1523
$2.2810
$2.1073
$2.0841
$2.0229
$2.1142
$2.1286
$2.1760
$2.4891
$2.7638
$3.0022
$2.5532
$2.3324
$3.0022
$2.0229
10-Year Average* $2.5723 $2.5423
$2.5197
$2.5540
$2.5035
$2.6382
$2.7207
$2.7412
$2.7400
$2.9899
$3.1351
$2.6094
$2.6889
$3.1351
$2.5035
$2.3812
$2.3920
$2.4483
$2.5458
$2.5441
$2.6774
$2.7699
$2.8978
$3.0510
$2.6626
$2.6140
$3.0510
$2.3812
$2.2662
$2.5429
$2.4552
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Class III prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
39
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table 18 Other Solids price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $0.1881 $0.3183 $0.2097 ($0.0304) $0.1946 $0.2002 $0.5032 $0.4647 $0.4155 $0.4001 $0.0371 $0.2503 $0.0787 $0.2898 $0.1417 $0.2682
Feb Mar Apr May $0.1999 $0.1874 $0.1508 $0.1251 $0.4170 $0.5257 $0.6008 $0.5791 $0.0803 $0.0493 $0.0622 $0.0766 ($0.0437) ($0.0339) ($0.0043) $0.0336 $0.1992 $0.1823 $0.1702 $0.1704 $0.2310 $0.2665 $0.2902 $0.3026 $0.4541 $0.4239 $0.4048 $0.3500 $0.4534 $0.4179 $0.3863 $0.3887 $0.4453 $0.4700 $0.4926 $0.4897 $0.3273 $0.2918 $0.4610 $0.2533 $0.0492 $0.0501 $0.0489 $0.0529 $0.2990 $0.3345 $0.3350 $0.3196 $0.0550 $0.0556 $0.0619 $0.0742 $0.2631 $0.2200 $0.1190 $0.1847 $0.1750 $0.1810 $0.1793 $0.1882 $0.3161 $0.3652 $0.4268 $0.4645
Jun $0.1255 $0.5831 $0.0826 $0.0723 $0.1748 $0.3339 $0.3113 $0.3859 $0.4942 $0.2322 $0.0628 $0.3014 $0.1128 $0.1702 $0.1696 $0.4579
Jul $0.1257 $0.5534 $0.0707 $0.0949 $0.1700 $0.3608 $0.3123 $0.3927 $0.5046 $0.2004 $0.0774 $0.2599 $0.1422 $0.1689 $0.1492 $0.4181
Aug $0.1416 $0.4368 $0.0529 $0.0962 $0.1647 $0.3811 $0.3462 $0.3901 $0.5036 $0.1151 $0.0881 $0.2425 $0.1741 $0.1730 $0.1387 $0.3735
Sep $0.1649 $0.2890 $0.0234 $0.1018 $0.1673 $0.4053 $0.3971 $0.3914 $0.4876 $0.0465 $0.1096 $0.2241 $0.2098 $0.1758 $0.1241 $0.3445
Oct $0.2026 $0.2286 ($0.0047) $0.1228 $0.1736 $0.4286 $0.4340 $0.3852 $0.4670 $0.0328 $0.1351 $0.1853 $0.2553 $0.1447 $0.1534 $0.3560
Average Nov Dec $0.2276 $0.2564 $0.1746 $0.2461 $0.2637 $0.4201 ($0.0099) ($0.0269) $0.0555 $0.1524 $0.1727 $0.0612 $0.1797 $0.1852 $0.1777 $0.4521 $0.4683 $0.3434 $0.4624 $0.4758 $0.4063 $0.3955 $0.3826 $0.4029 $0.4505 $0.3996 $0.4684 $0.0361 $0.0355 $0.2027 $0.1750 $0.2063 $0.0910 $0.1644 $0.1070 $0.2519 $0.2714 $0.2775 $0.1474 $0.1112 $0.1341 $0.1795 $0.1894 $0.2245 $0.1678 $0.3949 $0.4532 $0.3866
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$0.2682 $0.4080 $0.2085
$0.3161 $0.2896 $0.1881
3 Yr. Ave. Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
3-Year Average* $0.2332 $0.2514
Yearly Ranges High Low $0.2564 $0.1251 $0.6008 $0.2286 $0.2097 ($0.0269) $0.1727 ($0.0437) $0.1992 $0.1647 $0.4683 $0.2002 $0.5032 $0.3113 $0.4647 $0.3826 $0.5046 $0.3996 $0.4610 $0.0328 $0.2063 $0.0371 $0.3350 $0.1070 $0.2775 $0.0550 $0.2898 $0.1112 $0.2245 $0.1241 $0.4645 $0.2682
$0.6097 $0.2893
$0.5803 $0.2275
$0.5494 $0.2275
$0.5340 $0.2419
$0.5262 $0.2741
$0.5262 $0.2085
$0.4979 $0.2085
$0.4747 $0.2085
$0.4593 $0.2085
$0.4438 $0.2085
$0.4822 $0.2500 $0.1983
$0.6097 $0.4080 $0.2085
$0.2682 $0.2085 $0.1881
$0.2554
$0.2417
$0.2791
$0.2659
$0.2454
$0.2284
$0.2148
$0.2180
$0.2318
$0.2706
$0.2447
$0.2791
$0.2148
$0.2631
$0.2200
$0.1793
$0.1882
$0.1702
$0.1689
$0.1730
$0.1758
$0.1534
$0.1894
$0.2245
$0.1978
$0.2682
$0.1534
5-Year Average* $0.2057 $0.2216
$0.2682
$0.2313
$0.2244
$0.2462
$0.2424
$0.2277
$0.2204
$0.2157
$0.2189
$0.2263
$0.2393
$0.2267
$0.2462
$0.2057
$0.2457
$0.2452
$0.2111
$0.2308
$0.2137
$0.1927
$0.1965
$0.2032
$0.1980
$0.2084
$0.2120
$0.2148
$0.2457
$0.1927
10-Year Average* $0.2849 $0.2838
$0.2810
$0.2916
$0.2766
$0.2698
$0.2626
$0.2545
$0.2511
$0.2549
$0.2651
$0.2696
$0.2704
$0.2916
$0.2511
$0.2862
$0.2968
$0.2779
$0.2677
$0.2555
$0.2442
$0.2471
$0.2561
$0.2690
$0.2731
$0.2712
$0.2968
$0.2442
$0.2201
$0.2886
$0.2918
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Other solids prices after the date of outlook are Projected/Futures Prices . The Projected/Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
40
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table 19 Butter price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $1.2193 $1.3387 $1.1340 $1.3442 $1.4916 $1.1991 $1.4356 $1.6997 $1.2044 $1.2096 $1.4459 $1.0750 $1.7020 $2.1893 $1.3609 $1.9649 $2.1287 $1.6119 $1.5943 $1.9168 $1.3657 $1.5451 $1.6766 $1.4187 $2.1361 $2.8525 $1.6475 $2.0673 $2.7999 $1.5633 $2.0777 $2.3155 $1.8637 $2.3303 $2.6578 $2.1160 $2.2572 $2.3756 $2.1112 $2.2431 $2.3893 $1.9842 $1.5808 $1.9153 $1.2630 $1.7325 $2.0641 $1.3586
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $1.3387 $1.1991 $1.2301 $1.0868 $1.3610 $2.0239 $1.5900 $1.5066 $1.6475 $1.5633 $2.0759 $2.2568 $2.1972 $2.2343 $1.9153 $1.4548
Feb $1.2374 $1.2129 $1.2044 $1.0750 $1.3609 $2.0680 $1.4712 $1.5438 $1.8320 $1.6823 $2.1350 $2.1760 $2.1112 $2.2644 $1.8076 $1.3586
Mar $1.1647 $1.2676 $1.2539 $1.1289 $1.4388 $2.0591 $1.4347 $1.6146 $1.8562 $1.6945 $1.9905 $2.1679 $2.1759 $2.2740 $1.7551 $1.5898
Apr $1.1436 $1.3416 $1.3492 $1.1665 $1.4773 $1.9975 $1.4634 $1.6766 $1.9227 $1.7355 $2.0192 $2.1160 $2.2452 $2.2669 $1.2630 $1.7814
May $1.1635 $1.4290 $1.4170 $1.2159 $1.5801 $2.0292 $1.3657 $1.6483 $2.0477 $1.8725 $2.0580 $2.1644 $2.3382 $2.2952 $1.3074 $1.8107
Jun $1.1513 $1.4916 $1.4669 $1.2073 $1.5946 $2.1287 $1.3991 $1.5422 $2.1874 $1.9065 $2.1623 $2.4065 $2.3756 $2.3663 $1.7067 $1.7934
Jul $1.1340 $1.4627 $1.5180 $1.1986 $1.7375 $2.0304 $1.5386 $1.4674 $2.3473 $1.9159 $2.3155 $2.6039 $2.2596 $2.3893 $1.7886 $1.7401
Aug $1.1990 $1.4429 $1.5713 $1.2030 $1.8508 $2.0695 $1.6859 $1.4187 $2.5206 $2.0438 $2.2254 $2.6578 $2.3192 $2.3659 $1.5154 $1.6998
Sep $1.2976 $1.3789 $1.6365 $1.1811 $2.1570 $1.9886 $1.8269 $1.4263 $2.8525 $2.4490 $2.0775 $2.5298 $2.2724 $2.2344 $1.4871 $1.7725
Oct $1.2941 $1.2945 $1.6997 $1.2245 $2.1893 $1.7893 $1.9168 $1.5454 $2.5255 $2.5734 $1.8637 $2.3718 $2.2814 $2.1559 $1.5248 $1.7746
Nov $1.2693 $1.2933 $1.6356 $1.3817 $2.0230 $1.7824 $1.8410 $1.5205 $1.9891 $2.7999 $1.9092 $2.2810 $2.2677 $2.0869 $1.4558 $1.9503
Dec $1.2384 $1.3159 $1.2448 $1.4459 $1.6539 $1.6119 $1.5981 $1.6308 $1.9049 $2.5709 $2.1000 $2.2319 $2.2425 $1.9842 $1.4431 $2.0641
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$2.6130 $2.4000 $2.2358
$2.6668 $2.3028 $2.1833
$2.6950 $2.2998
$2.6888 $2.2358
$2.6610 $2.2363
$2.6490 $2.2350
$2.6453 $2.2358
$2.6525 $2.2358
$2.6525 $2.2358
$2.6350 $2.2358
$2.5998 $2.2358
$2.5200 $2.2358
$2.6399 $2.2603 $2.2095
$2.6950 $2.4000 $2.2358
$2.5200 $2.2350 $2.1833
3 Yr. Ave.
3-Year Average* $1.8681 $1.8102
Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
$1.8730
$1.7704
$1.8044
$1.9555
$1.9727
$1.8604
$1.8313
$1.8184
$1.8310
$1.8305
$1.8522
$1.9727
$1.7704
$1.8076
$1.7551
$1.7814
$1.8107
$1.7934
$1.7886
$1.6998
$1.7725
$1.7746
$1.9503
$1.9842
$1.8195
$1.9842
$1.6998
5-Year Average* $2.0117 $1.9436
$1.9153
$1.9925
$1.9345
$1.9832
$2.1297
$2.1563
$2.1116
$2.0592
$2.0217
$2.0083
$1.9932
$2.0288
$2.1563
$1.9345
$2.0316
$2.0330
$2.0475
$2.0901
$2.1784
$2.1458
$2.1283
$2.0931
$2.0706
$2.1016
$2.0934
$2.0941
$2.1784
$2.0316
10-Year Average* $1.8442 $1.8382
$1.8553
$1.8490
$1.8908
$1.9846
$2.0366
$2.0453
$2.0928
$2.0533
$2.0101
$1.9771
$1.9564
$2.0928
$1.8382
$1.8556
$1.8700
$1.9078
$2.0051
$2.0369
$2.0470
$2.0812
$2.0544
$1.9807
$1.9696
$1.9579
$2.0812
$1.8413
$2.1156
$1.8413
$1.8449
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Butter prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
41
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook
Table 20 Dry whey price per pound Date Prepared: March 22, 2022 Yearly Ranges Average High Low $0.3285 $0.4079 $0.2805 $0.6004 $0.7789 $0.4175 $0.2504 $0.3992 $0.1730 $0.2585 $0.3668 $0.1567 $0.3716 $0.3925 $0.3590 $0.5325 $0.6538 $0.3935 $0.5935 $0.6876 $0.5013 $0.5902 $0.6503 $0.5706 $0.6538 $0.6890 $0.5871 $0.3804 $0.5875 $0.2309 $0.2875 $0.3994 $0.2351 $0.4437 $0.5243 $0.3030 $0.3422 $0.4685 $0.2525 $0.3799 $0.4805 $0.3071 $0.3621 $0.4171 $0.3196 $0.5744 $0.6501 $0.4595
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan $0.3416 $0.4680 $0.3992 $0.1696 $0.3880 $0.3935 $0.6876 $0.6503 $0.6025 $0.5875 $0.2351 $0.4421 $0.2755 $0.4805 $0.3367 $0.4595
Feb $0.3531 $0.6005 $0.2736 $0.1567 $0.3925 $0.4234 $0.6400 $0.6393 $0.6314 $0.5169 $0.2469 $0.4894 $0.2525 $0.4545 $0.3690 $0.5060
Mar $0.3409 $0.7060 $0.2435 $0.1662 $0.3761 $0.4578 $0.6107 $0.6048 $0.6554 $0.4824 $0.2477 $0.5239 $0.2531 $0.4127 $0.3748 $0.5537
Apr $0.3054 $0.7789 $0.2560 $0.1949 $0.3643 $0.4808 $0.5921 $0.5741 $0.6774 $0.4610 $0.2466 $0.5243 $0.2592 $0.3923 $0.3732 $0.6135
May $0.2805 $0.7578 $0.2700 $0.2317 $0.3645 $0.4929 $0.5389 $0.5765 $0.6745 $0.4450 $0.2505 $0.5094 $0.2711 $0.3784 $0.3818 $0.6501
Jun $0.2808 $0.7617 $0.2758 $0.2693 $0.3688 $0.5233 $0.5013 $0.5738 $0.6789 $0.4245 $0.2601 $0.4917 $0.3086 $0.3643 $0.3638 $0.6437
Jul $0.2810 $0.7329 $0.2642 $0.2912 $0.3641 $0.5494 $0.5023 $0.5804 $0.6890 $0.3937 $0.2742 $0.4514 $0.3372 $0.3631 $0.3440 $0.6050
Aug $0.2965 $0.6197 $0.2470 $0.2925 $0.3590 $0.5691 $0.5352 $0.5778 $0.6880 $0.3108 $0.2846 $0.4345 $0.3681 $0.3671 $0.3338 $0.5617
Sep $0.3191 $0.4762 $0.2183 $0.2979 $0.3615 $0.5926 $0.5846 $0.5791 $0.6725 $0.2442 $0.3055 $0.4167 $0.4028 $0.3698 $0.3196 $0.5336
Oct $0.3557 $0.4175 $0.1945 $0.3183 $0.3676 $0.6152 $0.6205 $0.5731 $0.6525 $0.2309 $0.3303 $0.3790 $0.4470 $0.3396 $0.3480 $0.5447
Nov $0.3800 $0.4345 $0.1895 $0.3471 $0.3736 $0.6380 $0.6480 $0.5831 $0.6365 $0.2341 $0.3690 $0.3587 $0.4626 $0.3071 $0.3830 $0.5825
Dec $0.4079 $0.4516 $0.1730 $0.3668 $0.3789 $0.6538 $0.6610 $0.5706 $0.5871 $0.2336 $0.3994 $0.3030 $0.4685 $0.3293 $0.4171 $0.6391
Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2024
$0.7087 $0.5953 $0.4015
$0.7800 $0.4803 $0.3818
$0.7910 $0.4800
$0.7625 $0.4200
$0.7325 $0.4200
$0.7175 $0.4340
$0.7100 $0.4653
$0.7100 $0.4015
$0.6825 $0.4015
$0.6600 $0.4015
$0.6450 $0.4015
$0.6300 $0.4015
$0.7108 $0.4419 $0.3916
$0.7910 $0.5953 $0.4015
$0.6300 $0.4015 $0.3818
3 Yr. Ave.
3-Year Average* $0.4256 $0.4432
Olympic Ave.
5 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
10 Yr. Ave Olympic Ave.
$0.4471
$0.4597
$0.4701
$0.4573
$0.4374
$0.4209
$0.4077
$0.4108
$0.4242
$0.4618
$0.4388
$0.4701
$0.4077
$0.4545
$0.4127
$0.3923
$0.3818
$0.3643
$0.3631
$0.3671
$0.3698
$0.3480
$0.3830
$0.4171
$0.3928
$0.4595
$0.3480
5-Year Average* $0.3989 $0.4143
$0.4595
$0.4236
$0.4325
$0.4382
$0.4344
$0.4201
$0.4130
$0.4085
$0.4117
$0.4188
$0.4314
$0.4204
$0.4382
$0.3989
$0.4376
$0.4371
$0.4299
$0.4232
$0.4066
$0.3862
$0.3899
$0.3964
$0.3913
$0.4014
$0.4050
$0.4098
$0.4376
$0.3862
10-Year Average* $0.4757 $0.4746
$0.4719
$0.4714
$0.4676
$0.4611
$0.4540
$0.4462
$0.4428
$0.4466
$0.4565
$0.4609
$0.4608
$0.4757
$0.4428
$0.4770
$0.4737
$0.4689
$0.4590
$0.4471
$0.4361
$0.4390
$0.4478
$0.4603
$0.4643
$0.4612
$0.4824
$0.4361
$0.4128
$0.4793
$0.4824
* Projected years are not included in these numbers. Note: Dry Whey prices after the date of outlook are Futures Prices . The Future Prices are also shown in color & italicized . Average years do not include projected years. Olympic averages eliminate the high and low observations and then average all remaining observations.
42
© AgChoice Farm Credit
Dairy Industry Outlook Date Prepared: March 22, 2022
Sources AgChoice Farm Credit, 2011‐2019 Dairy Success and Profitability Review, www.agchoice.com Farm Credit East, 2003‐2019 Dairy Farm Summary, www.farmcrediteast.com Chicago Mercantile Exchange, www.cmegroup.com United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, http://www.ers.usda.gov U.S. Dairy Statistics, Progressive Dairyman, https://www.progressivepublish.com/downloads/ Northeast Milk Marketing Area Administrator, Uniform Price and Producer Price Differential, http://www.fmmone.com Understanding Dairy Markets, www.dairymarkets.org and https://dairy.aae.wisc.edu/dairy‐marketing‐tools/ National Milk Producers Federation, http://www.nmpf.org
©AgChoice Farm Credit 43