VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2019 THIRD QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
2019 THIRD QUARTER Third quarter of 2019 has seen our single family detached market begin to cool in the Greater Victoria Area. The absorption rate was at its lowest at the end of Q2 July and has steadily moved upwards through this past quarter. This shift is an indicator of balance returning to the market. The mid-year real estate market here in the Capital tends to peak early followed by a slow decline into our fall market.
At the beginning of the third quarter there were
2,949 active listings on the Victoria MLS system. Through Q3, this number dropped slightly to 2,823 at the end of last month. A total of 1983 properties sold in the Victoria region this past quarter, 10.9 per cent more than the 1788 properties sold in Q3 2018. This past month, sales of condominiums were up 48.3 per cent from September 2018 with 221 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 1.1 per cent from September 2018 with 282 sold. The total sales volume at the end of Q2-2019 was approximately 3.8 billion dollars, up from 2.5 billion dollars at the end of Q2.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
MICHELE HOLMES
$7
& DEBRA BARTLETT
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$6
$5
$4
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$3
$2
Third Quarter
2019
$1
$0
ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000
Jul-2019
Sep-2019
May-2019
Jan-2019
Mar-2019
Nov-2018
Jul-2018
Sep-2018
2017
May-2018
Jan-2018
Mar-2018
Nov-2017
Jul-2017
Sep-2017
2016
May-2017
Jan-2017
Mar-2017
Nov-2016
Jul-2016
2015
Sep-2016
May-2016
Jan-2016
Mar-2016
Nov-2015
Jul-2015
2014
Sep-2015
May-2015
Jan-2015
Mar-2015
Nov-2014
Jul-2014
2013
Sep-2014
May-2014
Jan-2014
Mar-2014
Nov-2013
Jul-2013
2012
Sep-2013
May-2013
Jan-2013
Mar-2013
Sep-2012
1000
Nov-2012
1500
2018 2019
The high-end market remained saturated through Q3. The ongoing disparity between listing numbers and monthly sales remains significant in the luxury market. At the end of Q3 there were approximately 310 active listings available over 1.5 Million dollars, with an average of only 20 sales in this range per month. Over the 2 Million price point, there are 181 active listings available, and an average of only 9 sales per month. In the 2 Million plus range, there are currently approximately 28 months of inventory available.
Benchmark prices for a single family home have dropped slightly throughout the third quarter of 2019. The benchmark price for a home rose from $754,200 to $751,300 through Q3-2019. When compared to the same quarter last year, the benchmark also dropped slightly. At the end of Q3-2018, the benchmark for a single family home in the Victoria area was $758,100. While a slight decline was present in the Core & Peninsula area, Westshore saw the benchmark rise from $620,300 a year ago, to $645,100 at the end of last quarter.
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q3-2018 to Q3-2019 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
PRICE INCREASES Single Family Benchmark Prices
Townhouse Benchmark Prices
Condominium Benchmark Prices
The 600K to 900K price range for single family homes is currently the most active price point. 350K through 450K holds the most activity in the condo market. Townhomes beween 475K and 550K are most active.
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
Competing multiple offer scenarios have decreased this quarter. Additionally, sales at and above the list price have also decreased. 14% of Single Family Detached sales this quarter were over list price. This is down from 17% last quarter. 13% of sales were at list price compared to only 14% in Q2. 73% of sales in Q3 were under the list price this quarter.
During Q3, 61% of the homes sold in the Greater Victoria Area sold above their BCA assessed values. This is not a significant difference over Q2 of this year.
The third quarter has seen the absorption rate steadily increase from 3.9 months of inventory to 4.3 months.
With the rate under
five months overall, we remain in a Seller’s Market; however, we are trending towards a balanced market. Between five and six months of inventory is a balanced market, and over six is a buyer’s market. This represents an overall averaged rate across all property types and price ranges. Depending on the price range and the location, the absorption rate and market type can vary dramatically.
Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2016-2019)
Months of Inventory
8 7 5.7
6 5.1
5.3 4.7
5 3.9
4.1
2
4.0
3.7
4 3
4.3
4.1 3.4
2.5
2.3
2.7
3.1 3.3
4.0
3.9
2.4
2.5
3.8
2.2
4.1 3.6 2.1
2.3
2.4
2.3 2.1
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.0
December
November
October
2019
1.9
September
2018
1.9
August
July
2017
June
May
April
March
February
January
2016
4.1
4.0
2.5 2.0
1
4.3
2.6 2.3
2.5
3.9
4.2
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2019
8.00
7.43 6.77
Months of Inventory
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.67
4.60
4.50
4.04
4.00
3.71
3.56 3.26
3.07
2.77
3.00
2.19
2.00
2.00
2.81
1.88
1.00
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums September 2019
September 2019
21.00
6.00
14.00
5.36 5.00
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.25 5.57
6.00
5.90
4.92 3.62
4.00
2.85 2.00
0.00
2.72 1.43
2.25
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.13
3.92
4.00
3.38
3.35 3.00
2.00
2.60
2.56
2.50
1.80
2.69 1.00
0.50
0.94 0.00
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range
Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range September 2019
September 2019
25
15
13.50
14
20.00
15
10
6.75
6.00 5
1.74
12
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
20
13
3.44
$600K to $800K
10 9 8 7
7.00
6
5.00
5 4
3.69
3.83
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
3 2 1
0 Under $600K
11
$800K to $1M
$1M to $2M
0
Over $2M
Under $600K
$1M to $2M
Over $2M
Absorption rates by price range continue to illustrate the disparity in between the luxury market and lower price ranges. The highend and luxury markets remain slow due to the large inventory and smaller buyer pool. If you have any questions about these statistics, please feel free to contact us. We hope you have a wonderful fall.
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
September 2019
September 2019
45
39.75
40
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0.00 Under $600K
3.00 $600K to $800K
2.20 $800K to $1M
3.32 $1M to $2M
Over $2M
23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
21.75
12.00
5.63 2.88 0.80 Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $2M
Over $2M
Michele Holmes & Debra Bartlett
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250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
This publication is protected by international copyright © 2019 Holmes Realty Ltd.