THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR PUBLIC REALM INVESTMENT IN THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
ABOUT THIS REPORT Arup was commissioned to develop a case for investment in sustainable transport and public realm in the Heart of London area to help it to meet its full good growth potential. This is an update to the 2019 analysis by Arup and Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics (LSE).
It includes an evaluation of the impact of the COVID‑19 pandemic and subsequent economic and societal changes, a new analysis of the value generated by the Arts Quarter, and a Healthy Street Assessment of the whole of the Heart of London area. It assesses the economic benefits that can be achieved through investment in public realm, creating better places and improved cycling and walking routes.
WHY SHOULD WE BE INVESTING IN THE WEST END?
The Heart of London area makes a unique contribution to the economic success of the wider West End, London and the UK by helping attract hundreds of millions of visitors and investment to London. The quality and capacity of the public realm contributes to this economic role.
The report also assesses how public realm improvements can help support the ecosystem of businesses, arts, culture and social amenities that make up the Heart of London area and create a better place for all those who live, work, invest and visit this remarkable part of central London.
Heart of London Business Alliance released the Placeshaping Strategy in 2019 with the intention of delivering a unified plan for the public realm, with two key priorities: to preserve and enhance the unique character of the area, and to maintain and improve its function.
Major capital projects, in particular the Elizabeth Line, will drive increases in footfall throughout the West End. It is essential that the walking and cycling routes and public realm in the Heart of London area supports additional passenger arrivals and that the area is well‑placed to benefit from this significant opportunity.
This report shows the return on investment from delivering the Heart of London Area Placeshaping Strategy. It demonstrates the impact of new cycling, walking and public realm investment on property values, land use changes, employment, local and national tax revenue and Gross Value Added (GVA).
1
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
FOREWORD
Heart of London Business Alliance serves as a voice for 600 businesses in the Charing Cross Road, St Martin’s, Piccadilly & St James’s and Leicester Square areas. We support the commercial wellbeing of the businesses and organisations it represents and ensures the West End remains a world‑class destination. We have a 20‑year track record of transforming the area for the better, putting it on a global stage, sustaining and creating jobs and making our businesses more economically resilient and secure. Our own research shows businesses are investing at least £2.8bn in their buildings and public spaces, demonstrating continued confidence in the future of the West End. This report sets out a strong case for further, targeted public and private investment in the Heart of London area to the benefit of businesses, workers, visitors and residents; and the UK economy beyond the West End. It shows that by 2030, improvements to the public realm are estimated to support over 2,000 additional jobs in the Heart of London area and more than 6,000 more jobs by 2040. Investment in public spaces and creating Healthy Streets can, through our Placeshaping Strategy can contribute to sustaining the Heart of London area’s status as a leading global hub for culture, commerce and leisure. Ros Morgan Chief Executive Heart of London Business Alliance
2
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2
3
4
5
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
THE HEART OF LONDON AREA IN THE WEST END’S ECOSYSTEM
INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
SCENARIO RESULTS
3
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
6
7
8
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
CONCLUSIONS
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
3 WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 4
2
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
The Placeshaping Strategy could support nearly 10% more jobs in 2040 and achieve a 10% higher GVA than the one supported by a “do minimum” scenario.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS SCENARIO RESULTS
A programme of coordinated actions to create better public spaces and better cycling and walking routes in the Heart of London area is required. High-quality, ambitious and practical interventions can improve the streetscape and enhance the area’s distinctiveness in a way that is appropriate for a world-class place:
The Placeshaping Strategy represents an active plan to deliver these improvements and unlock the economic potential of the area. There are compelling benefits for businesses, the public sector, land owners, workers, residents and visitors in undertaking this public realm investment.
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
This report sets out to prove that investment in the public realm through Heart of London’s Placeshaping Strategy will result in a strong economic uplift of the area.
Uplift delivered by the Heart of London Placeshaping Strategy
▪ More space for pedestrians and cyclists
2022
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
THE OPPORTUNITY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
By 2040, the implementation of the Heart of London Placeshaping Strategy could help boost the productivity of the area to £10.9bn (+122% compared to 2022), support a 49% growth in total business rates, increase office floorspace by 11% and increase the value of commercial rents (+34%).
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2030
1
2
3
4
5
2040
▪ Better wayfinding ▪ Planting trees ▪ Creating new traffic-free public spaces ▪ Climate resilient street design ▪ Outdoor events and cultural activities
912,000
944,000
+3%
986,000
+8%
Net jobs
45,400
47,500
+5%
51,700
+14%
Net GVA
£4.9bn
£6.8bn
+39%
£10.9bn
+122%
Business rates
£189m
£233m
+23%
£281m
+49%
Commercial rents
£676m
£822m
+22%
£904m
+34%
Source: Arup analysis
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Floorspace (sqm)
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ Improved landscape quality
CONCLUSIONS
5
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
THE NEED
The Heart of London area remains one of the most important economic drivers of the capital, with over 45,000 people coming to work and over 300,000 visitors every day. Businesses in the area include successful clusters of professional services, entertainment, culture and arts.
The Heart of London area is facing significant challenges. Before the pandemic, this part of central London experienced exceptional intensity of use by day and night. Coventry Street had a greater footfall than any street in the UK.
However, there are signs of confidence in the future of the West End. In the short to medium term (3-5 years), the private sector plans to invest at least £2.8bn in projects, including new occupiers, major new buildings and significant retrofit of older buildings.
Significant safety measures were put in place to ensure the safety of visitors during COVID-19. As people increasingly come back to central London, pressure will mount again on the area with increasing traffic congestion, low air quality and poor connectivity for pedestrians and cyclists.
The culture, leisure and tourism offer is unlike any other place in the UK. Leicester Square and Piccadilly Circus are globally iconic landmarks. The area’s concentration of cinemas, theatres, internationally famous galleries, hotels, restaurants, nightclubs and unique public spaces is a legacy of London’s history.
The vulnerability of London’s economy was brought to the fore during the pandemic with changes to working and lifestyle patterns such as travel restrictions, remote working and online shopping. And while footfall has never recovered to pre-pandemic levels*, its recovery in central London has been considerably slower than in UK core cities.
The pandemic has reinforced the crucial role that streets which support walking and cycling and better public spaces can play in supporting the West End’s economic ecosystem. Both can provide attractive and inclusive places and safer cycling and walking routes, helping to mitigate the pressures and stresses that come from a high intensity of use. Active transport infrastructure became more important, buoyed by the need to reduce carbon emissions and deliver better accessibility for all.
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
* To February 2022, weekday footfall was at 57% of pre-pandemic levels in London, versus a nearly 90% recovery across Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool, and Bristol (Centre for Cities, March 2022 https://www.centreforcities.org/blog/many-city-centres-saw-recordhigh-footfall-recovery-in-february/)
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Re-prioritising people and sustainable transport in the streets and public spaces goes hand in hand with supporting the Heart of London area’s competitiveness with other world-class destinations.
SCENARIO RESULTS
New trends mean that the area must evolve to create appealing experiences that attract workers and visitors alike. This requires investment to improve the quality of public realm, cycling and walking routes.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
A remarkable patchwork of streets and buildings has been left by the Great Estates and developers, which have made it one of the world’s most famous (and visited) locations.
This is true also for the Heart of London area. While its economy has demonstrated resilience, full recovery has yet to be achieved. Its GVA (an estimated £4.9bn) remains, to date, slightly below (-6%) 2019 levels in real terms. Commercial rents experienced a steady decrease between Q1 2019 and Q4 2021 (-32% for offices). An overall floorspace increase (4%) has been dampened by a slight reduction in office and entertainment space.
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
THE AREA
CONCLUSIONS
6
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key recommended actions are:
▪ The Arts Quarter ▪ Piccadilly and Green Park Gateway
Arup’s analysis and separate business cases show that the Heart of London area has a strong case for investment*. Now is the time to focus on a comprehensive delivery programme. * Cost-benefit ratio for Charing Cross Road is 12:1 and St Martin’s Lane is 15:1
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
5. Invest in the feasibility and design of the next tranche of cycling, walking and public realm projects to support the West End’s attractiveness as a sustainable place to work, visit and live
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ Sackville and Vigo Street
4. Support projects that can address the climate emergency and support recovery of the West End
SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ St Martin’s Lane
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
▪ Charing Cross Road
3. Support partnership funding models with private sector and public sector investment to fast-track priority public realm schemes
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
Investing in the Heart of London’s Placeshaping Strategy can help accelerate and lock in the West End’s recovery. It creates a range of benefits for all stakeholders. Fast‐tracking the following priority projects can also contribute to addressing the climate emergency at the local level by encouraging more cycling and walking:
2. Allocate public funds to projects with the highest benefit-cost ratio and contribution to public policy goals
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Fast track to construction Heart of London Business Alliance’s programme of transformational yet also deliverable cycling, walking and public realm projects
CONCLUSIONS
7
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
3 WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 8
2
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Heart of London area covers 39 hectares of prime central London, equivalent to 6% of the ‘Wider’ and 10% of the ‘Core’ West End area.
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA COVENT GARDEN
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
THE HEART OF LONDON BUSINESS ALLIANCE AREA
1
2
3
AR W
COVENT GARDEN
DO UR ST RE ET
CHINATOWN
SOHO
G ER
RA
RD
ST
RE
CR
EE
ES TER
E
ET
E
ST MARTIN’S COURT
RE
NU
ST
UR YA VE
RD
SB
NEW ROW
LEICESTER SQUARE
CH
O
SS RO
A
D
ST
O R AN
RE ET
GE S
TREE
R EE
T
THE NATIONAL GALLERY
ON NY
COU YA RD
IS
TR
EE
T FF
OLK
PL
E AC
TRAFALGAR SQUARE
ET
OF YO RK ST
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CA Y AR D ILL
ST
REE
PIC
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PA
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AR
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GE
REE
CH
ST
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T
OLK
KE
FF
AR
SU
YM HA
RT
ST T
CHARING CROSS
DE
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
BA
DE
AL
CA AR
ND
AR
EE
E
5
TI N ’ S PL AC E ST MA R
ST
EET
GE
ET
BO
EM
YN
S TR
AC
NATIONAL PORTRAIT GALLERY
’S STR
AN
ET
GT
RE
S PL
WILLIAM IV STREET
T
RTIN
OR
RE
ET
IN
ST
DO
ST MA
RE
RL
YN
AN
SCENARIO RESULTS
ENGLISH NATIONAL OPERA
CR
STREET
4
Y D BUR
TE
T
BEDFOR
AF
RE E
TIN ’ S L ANE ST MA R
SH
K ST
G
T
MB
REE
ST
ST
BU
JE RM
JE RM
6
DU
KE ST
ST
AM
ME
TJ
JA
TS
ET
REE
RE
L PA
’S
S ’S
ES
ST
AL
L
RL OO
JA
PL
ET
SQ
RE
S ’S
ST
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ON
ME
GT
RE
ET
UA
RE
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
RE
T
ET
LIN
ST
R EE
RE
AR
ST
ST JAMES’S
LM
E AT W
UA
ST
ET
ST
RE
RY
ST
S ’S
BU
ME
SQ
JA
EY
N
GREEN PARK
GREEN PARK
ST JAMES’S PARK
CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CA
ST
EL
O
9
N
ST
NT
OW
LY
OLD
ALB
RK
TT RA
The Heart of London area covers 39 hectares of prime central London, equivalent to 6% of the ‘Wider’ and 10% of the ‘Core’ West End area.
PI C
Y LL DI
VER DO
BE
THE RITZ ST
Space for movement by pedestrians and cyclists, new dwell space and opportunities for cultural activations are all needed to ensure that the Heart of London area continues to thrive.
PA
N TO
GE
ALL SW
D IL
RR IC
ITCO
T
RE
REE
CA
T
IRVI N G
STR EET
WH
ST
PIC
YN
REE
T
LE
ROYAL ACADEMY OF ARTS
The Heart of London area, therefore, has to balance the needs and space demands of a global cultural destination with being a successful place to do business and a liveable urban neighbourhood.
JERM
ST
TON
T
KE
VIL
MAYFAIR
PAN
AR
CK SA
PICCADILLY CIRCUS
GA
IN
ANTEROS
ST R E ET
T
AR
ENT
REE
CH
PICCADILLY CIRCUS
REE
R EG
S
ST
D FO
AC
T
EN
N
LEICESTER SQUARE
ST
RD
T
EET
N
GA
UR
T UR
DO
N
CO
EN
TO
ISS
OX
NG
STR
YM HA
RLI
NTRY
REET
STRE E
EE
ET
ET
T
BU
COVE
PICCADILLY LIGHTS
N ST
TR
RE
RE
T
UR
RS
ST
ST
R EE
REE
Collectively, these areas host some of London’s most popular tourist and cultural attractions. They also are home to workers and residents.
While the Heart of London area is successful, it does face challenges in providing sufficient and good quality walking and cycling routes and better public realm. The volume of visitors and workers who occupy the Heart of London area every day means that overcrowding can be acute.
SW
E STREE T
ST
O ST
AIR
VIG
BO
STE
UR
RT
GLA SSHOU S
AN
BEAR
IC E
DO
PE
St Martin’s Lane area
BO
BE
PL CR
LE
R WA
RU
Piccadilly and St James’s
AN
T
CHARING CRO S S ROAD
TR
IC
ES
LE
LI SL
Leicester Square and Piccadilly Circus
RT STREET
ET
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
GREAT NEWPORT S TREET
LITTLE NEWPO
The Heart of London Buisness Alliance area consists of three sub-districts:
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
▪ Gross Value Added – the value of goods and services produced
The pandemic has shown just how crucial culture is, emotionally as well as economically, to the UK. Consumers’ experience of the West End is unique and can contribute to the recovery of the wider West End, London and of the UK as a whole. The West End is a 24/7 showcase of the world’s best creative talent, and this is what makes it London’s number one destination for foreign direct investment.
▪ Employment by sectors and types of commercial space
▪ Business rates collected ▪ Accessibility and air quality ▪ Climate emergency mitigation and adaptation
CONCLUSIONS
10
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
3
4
5
▪ Commercial property rents
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Besides providing exceptional landmarks and cultural attractions, the Heart of London area plays a vital part in the city’s economy, generating £4.9bn in GVA per annum and hosting over 45,000 jobs.
Arts, culture and creativity are the Heart of London area’s greatest assets, central to its global standing, and its importance to the nation.
2
▪ Commercial floorspace
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
The Heart of London area is a popular and exciting world‑class destination that includes 50 galleries and exhibition spaces. Piccadilly Circus stands in the centre, with the acclaimed Anteros statue watching over the square’s 100+ m yearly visitors.
This section sets out the key information and data, historic trends and comparisons with pre-pandemic levels. It includes:
SCENARIO RESULTS
It is a vibrant global destination with a distinctive identity central to London’s West End. With over 50 premières staged every year, the world-famous Leicester Square is the epicentre of London’s cinema, theatre and entertainment industry.
Transport investments, such as the weekend Night Tube and the development of the Elizabeth Line, have established the Heart of London area as a 24-hour place and catalysed the growth of the night economy, attracting diverse consumers. Leicester Square is the busiest Night Tube station in London.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Heart of London Business Alliance serves as the voice for 600 businesses and 100 property owners in the Piccadilly and St James, Leicester Square and St Martin’s Lane areas.
UNDERSTANDING THE OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
THE HEART OF LONDON AREA IN THE WEST END’S ECOSYSTEM
1
6
7
8
The Heart of London area’s job density is 1,150 jobs per hectare, 42% greater than for the West End as a whole.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Whilst we recognise that this partly reflects building typologies, width of roads and amount of green space, it does suggest that there is additional capacity for growth.
Leicester Square
St Martin’s Lane area
Arts Quarter *
Retail
8,394
3,226
4,378
791
241
Office
29,461
18,238
7,334
3,889
841
Hotel
5,838
2,097
3,162
580
81
F&B
688
84
363
241
311
Entertainment
972
114
614
244
325
45,354
23,758
15,851
5,744
1,801
Total
May not sum due to rounding. *The Arts Quarter is a new proposed district. See page 39 Source: CoStar; HCA employment densities; Arup analysis
See Section 7 for detail on Arts Quarter
(sqm NIA per worker) 30,000
Retail 17.5 sqm/job
25,000
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Job density assumptions
35,000
3
4
5
6
F&B 17.5 sqm/job
15,000
Office 12.0 sqm/job
10,000
Entertainment 100.0 sqm/job
5,000
Retail Piccadilly and St James’s
Office
Hotel
Leicester Square
F&B
Entertainment
St Martin’s Lane area
CONCLUSIONS
Hotel 29.6 sqm/job
0
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
FTE
20,000
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
2
Employment in Heart of London area (2022)
To continue to attract new businesses and visitors as well as cater for residents, the district must ensure that there is enough quality space for people to get around comfortably and new public and green spaces for rest and relaxation.
11
SCENARIO RESULTS
The West End as a whole has 810 jobs per hectare and Westminster 360 jobs per hectare compared to 1,150 jobs in the Heart of London. Nearby Soho has a higher density with 1,350 jobs per hectare on average. This means that the Heart of London area could accommodate a further 7,000 jobs or the equivalent of a 15% increase to reach the same level.
Piccadilly and St James’s
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
When compared to other parts of London, the Heart of London area has one of the capital’s most dense concentrations of employment.
Heart of London area
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION
1
7
8
Leicester Square
Piccadilly and St James’s
INVESTING IN SUCCESS SCENARIO RESULTS
Source: ONS; BRES; GLA Projections, Arup analysis
St Martin’s Lane area
Arts Quarter
Office
3,711
2,331
909
491
104
Retail
539
207
281
51
15
Hotel
537
190
292
54
8
F&B
44
5
23
15
20
Entertainment
89
10
57
23
30
4,920
2,744
1,562
635
177
May not sum due to rounding Source: ONS; BRES; GLA Projections, Arup analysis
CONCLUSIONS
Leicester Square
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Piccadilly and St James’s
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Heart of London area
Total
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
2
3
4
5
2022 GVA generated by sector in the Heart of London area 2022 (£m)
12
1
St Martin’s Lane area
56% 32% 13%
The Heart of London area punches above its weight in generating GVA for the West End. Its annual GVA contribution is £4.9bn* (2022 nominal prices), equivalent to 9% of the ‘wider’ West End’s GVA (an estimated £54bn) but covering just 6% of its area.
* GVA for 2022 was estimated using forecasts from GLA for 2021 and 2022 by subindustry sector. GLA medium-term economic forecasts
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
Area GVA as a percentage of total Heart of London area GVA
Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of economic contribution. It represents the value of goods and services produced in an area. The Heart of London area is an important contributor to London’s GVA.
This, however, remains slightly below (-6%) 2019’s GVA in real terms, indicating the Heart of London area’s economy has yet to fully recover to pre‑pandemic levels.
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
GROSS VALUE ADDED
An estimated £4.9bn GVA is being generated in the Heart of London area in 2022. This is equivalent to 9% of the wider West End’s annual GVA for 2022, in just 6% of its area.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
6
7
8
There was 910,000+ sqm of commercial floorspace in the Heart of London area in 2022, a 4% increase since 2019.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Heart of London area
Piccadilly and St James’s
Leicester Square
St Martin’s Lane area
1%
0%
-1%
13%
2
3
100 90 80
-1%
-5%
6%
9%
Residential
5%
1%
6%
8%
70
Hotel
29%
7%
56%
6%
60
F&B
-4%
0%
15%
-23%
Entertainment
-4%
17%
-8%
0%
Total
4%
-2%
11%
5%
Percent
Office
SCENARIO RESULTS
In the Heart of London area, the floorspace of hospitality sectors such as Food & Beverage and Entertainment was lower in 2022 compared to 2019, indicating that these sectors suffered from the impact of the pandemic. In the St Martin’s Lane area, in particular, Food & Beverage floorspace declined significantly by 23% compared to 2019 levels.
Retail
Heart of London area – Floorspace composition as a percentage of total floorspace in area (2022)
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
Competition for space in the Heart of London area is high, with floorspace in commercial properties increasing overall since 2019. This was driven by the 350-bedroom Londoner Hotel in 2021. However, for other types of commercial properties, including retail, floorspace has either been stable or reduced slightly since 2019.
2019 – 2022 Floorspace Changes in the Heart of London area
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
FLOORSPACE
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
There was 70,000+ sqm of residential floorspace in the Heart of London area in 2022, a 5% increase since 2019.
1
50 40
4
5
30 Source: Costar; LDD database; Arup analysis 20
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
* Trends for residential floorspace have been derived between 2015-19 using net floorspace completed in the London Development Database (LDD). The LDD no longer provides updated data beyond 2019. Therefore, the 2015 – 2019 historical growth rate has been applied to 2019 data to estimate 2022 residential floorspace.
10 0
Entertainment
13
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Source: Costar; LDD database; Arup analysis
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
F&B
Hotel
Arts Quarter
Residential
St Martin’s Lane area
Leicester Square
Piccadilly and St James’s
HOLBA
Retail Office
6
7
8
45,000+ people are employed in the Heart of London area, equivalent to 8% of all employment in the West End.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Heart of London area – employment composition by SIC broad industrial classification (2022) 100
90
The area is in many ways a business district as much as it is a world‑class cultural hub, with almost 1 in 2 jobs taken by the professional private sector in 2022. Hospitality (distribution, transport, accommodation and food) is another key sector, absorbing 30% of total employment.
80
Overall employment has, however, yet to reach and surpass 2019 levels (employment stood at 45,000 in Q1 2022, and employment numbers in 2019 were around 48,000 jobs). The overall composition of employment in the Heart of London area remained relatively stable from 2019 to 2022.
60
Percent
Public administration; education; health Business service activities
Information and communication Distribution; transport; accommodation and food
40
Construction Manufacturing
30
Agriculture, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste
6
20
10
7
0 HOLBA
Piccadilly and St James’s
Leicester Square
St Martin’s Lane area
Arts Quarter
CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
5
Financial and insurance activities
Source: BRES; Arup analysis 14
4
Real estate activities 50
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
* HM Revenue & Customs, Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme statistics: August 2020
3
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
These employment data include includes those on furlough during the pandemic. This reached 26% of eligible employees in Westminster and the City of London during the first wave of the pandemic (a total of 27,800 jobs out of 108,100), with take-up rates as high as 69% in arts and culture and 75% in accommodation and food services sectors throughout London*.
2
70
SCENARIO RESULTS
Information and communications industries slightly increased their share (+1%, representing 10% of all jobs in 2022) while service activities (business services and arts, entertainment, recreation and other services) decreased from 36% of all jobs to 34%.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Heart of London area is a significant place of employment for the West End, Westminster, and the whole of the capital.
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION
1
8
£62 per square foot (£664 per sqm) is the average rent for commercial properties across the Heart of London area in 2022.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Heart of London area – estimated commercial rents (2022 prices) and vacancy rates (2010-2022) £1,100
9%
£1,000
6.9%
£500
5% 4%
£400
£663.71
£300
3%
Vacancy rate
2022 £/sqm
£910.64
3.4%
1%
£100 £0
0% 2015
Average rent per sqm
Source: CoStar; Arup analysis
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
4
5
6
Vacancy rate THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
15
3
2% 200
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Vacancy rates of around 5% are generally considered to be required for tenants to have the flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions. The ‘buffer’ for that flexibility was used up in the Heart of London area before 2020 but is now available again. This should enable proper functioning and readjustment of the commercial property market in future years.
£600
6%
SCENARIO RESULTS
The decline in average rents coincided with the rise in vacancy rates. The area is experiencing historically high vacancy rates – around 6.9%, which is above the West End average of 5.7% (2022 Q1 data). Historically, vacancy rates were lower in the Heart of London area than in the wider West End, and the inversion in trends highlights the impact of the pandemic on the office sector in the area.
7% £800 £700
2
8%
£900 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
Average commercial rents across the Heart of London area declined between 2019 and 2021, from £937/sqm to £711/sqm (-24%) in real terms. This coincided with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lower office attendance and visitor footfall, before stabilising in Q1 2022. This trend was even more stark when looking at the office market in the Heart of London area, with rents falling from £959/sqm in Q1 2019 to £651/sqm in Q4 2021 (-32%).
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET
1
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Heart of London area – Annual business rates generated (2022)
£189m
Commercial properties in the Heart of London area generate an estimated £189m business rates annually, equivalent to 10% of all business rates in the West End. In comparison, the Piccadilly and St James’s area generates 5% of the West End’s business rates income, Leicester Square 4% and the St Martin’s Lane area 1%.
£84m
£79m
£25m
£13m
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
BUSINESS RATES
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
90%
3
SCENARIO RESULTS
60% 50%
5
40% 30%
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Share of businesses rate generated by sector
4
70%
20% 10% 0%
Office
Retail
Hotel
Piccadilly and St James’s F&B
Entertainment
Source: CoStar, Valuation Office Agency; Arup analysis
Leicester Square
St Martin’s Lane area
Arts Quarter
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
HOLBA
CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
2
100%
80%
16
1
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Accessibility in the Heart of London area
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
CONNECTIVITY The central location of the Heart of London area, the density and choice of transport modes serving the area means that it is one of the most accessible places in London:
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
▪ It achieves the highest Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) score in London. This means that Underground and rail stations are within a short walking distance from any point in the Heart of London area
SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ The arrival of the Elizabeth Line at Bond Street in Autumn 2022 could bring an additional 137,000 commuters a day by 2041. An additional 170,000 daily passengers are also expected at Tottenham Court Road station, which opened in May 2022. Overall, an extra 1.5m people will be brought within 45 minutes travelling time of central London
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Heart of London area 17
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Air quality in the Heart of London area
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
AIR QUALITY
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Heart of London area suffers from some of the worst air quality in London (over 97 ug/m3 annual mean NO2 in 2016). Charing Cross Road is designated by the Mayor of London as an air quality focus area. The promotion of active modes of transport in the Heart of London area has the potential to contribute to improving air quality.
SCENARIO RESULTS
In addition, benefits will be experienced by the wider community through reduced emissions, fewer collisions, an improved environment and reduced congestion.
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Source: King’s College London, 2016
18
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Heart of London area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA SCENARIO RESULTS
When people choose to cycle or walk, there are significant health benefits, including extended life expectancy. A Healthy Streets Assessment for the Heart of London Placeshaping Strategy projects can be seen on page 38.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Heart of London Business Alliance is supporting the Healthy Streets approach to changing the West End’s streets so that they are safer and more attractive places to walk and cycle, thereby also contributing to healthier lifestyles for everyone who lives, works or visits the West End.
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
HEALTHY STREETS
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY CONCLUSIONS
19
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
▪ Championing a sustainable transport infrastructure for London and promoting active travel and low carbon transport choices
▪ Securing investment into the improvement and greening of the public realm
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ Working with their partners, including Westminster City Council’s Climate Emergency and Smarter Cities team, the Mayor of London and service providers, to ensure that they collectively meet net-zero carbon targets across their service delivery areas. ▪ Acting as one of the delivery partners for the GLA’s Business Climate Challenge retrofitting programme
Source: Westminster City Council
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
▪ Reducing emissions by identifying and implementing carbon reduction activities, including advocating for investment in retrofitting the area’s buildings, promoting green leases and delivering the West End freight reduction strategy
CONCLUSIONS
20
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
3
4
▪ Developing a net-zero carbon strategy and action plan for the West End SCENARIO RESULTS
Both climate change and air quality have a direct impact on how people experience the Heart of London area, and the growing climate emergency is becoming ever more apparent. The Heart of London Business Alliance is therefore committed to enabling the transition of the West End to a net -zero carbon economy and tackling issues including carbon reduction, air quality and waste.
2
The Heart of London Business Alliance is already responding to this need by: INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Heart of London Business Alliance is committed to supporting Westminster City Council’s 2040 zero carbon target for the borough.
Westminster’s City Council Climate Change Action Plan 2021
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
NET-ZERO CARBON
1
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 21
2
3
3
THE HEART OF LONDON AREA IN THE WEST END’S ECOSYSTEM
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3 THE HEART OF LONDON AREA IN THE WEST END’S ECOSYSTEM
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA WEST END ECOSYSTEM
THE WEST END AREA In line with previous work commissioned by Westminster City Council, the Greater London Authority and others, Arup has used four geographical definitions of the West End:
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
▪ The wider West End ▪ The core West End
1
2
3
4
▪ The Oxford Street District (excluding Soho) ▪ Soho SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ And for this study the Heart of London area
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
The Heart of London area comprises an area within the boundaries of the ‘core West End’. The wider West End includes parts of Marylebone and Fitzrovia. The Oxford Street District incorporates the core area around Tottenham Court Road station. The map opposite details these areas.
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Source: Arup 22
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Heart of London area
5
6
7
8
The West End generates over 3% of the UK’s annual economic output in 2022*, amounting to around £54 billion Gross Value Added (GVA) per year.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3 THE HEART OF LONDON AREA IN THE WEST END’S ECOSYSTEM
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
* Sources for GVA and job estimates in all of the paragraphs: ONS; BRES; GLA Projections, Arup analysis.
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
The Plan seeks to ensure that the unique role of the West End and its strategic contribution to the economy, culture and identity of the capital is promoted and enhanced. This will include growth and intensification of use in office and commercial space to meet projected demand, as well as measures to enhance the attractiveness of the West End.
SCENARIO RESULTS
Through the West End Special Retail Policy Area (WESPRA), the London Plan recognises the West End as a vibrant mixed-use business location, an internationally-renowned shopping, cultural and visitor destination and home to several world-leading academic institutions as well as a location with a significant residential population.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The West End generates over 3% of the UK’s annual economic output in 2022*, amounting to around £54 billion Gross Value Added (GVA) per year. The West End represents one of the largest and most diverse concentrations of employment anywhere in the United Kingdom. The area accounts for the equivalent of 74% of all workers in Westminster.
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF THE WEST END
CONCLUSIONS
23
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Along with the Mayor of London’s London Plan to 2041, Westminster’s City Council’s City Plan 2019-2040 (adopted in 2021) sets out the targets, vision and strategy for the development of the borough.
The intensification of the West End Retail and Leisure Special Policy Area over the plan period will aim to deliver the following priorities:
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The West End Retail and Leisure Special Policy Area
West End Retail and Leisure Special Policy Area
▪ An enhanced pedestrian environment, public realm and network of public transport infrastructure
SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ Significant jobs growth through a range of commercial-led development including retail, leisure, office and hotel use
1
2
S PAT I A
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
WESTMINSTER CITY COUNCIL NEW CITY PLAN 2019-2040
CIT Y PLAN 2019 – 2040
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3 THE HEART OF LONDON AREA IN THE WEST END’S ECOSYSTEM
3
4
5
▪ The realisation of growth targets for the area identified in the London Plan HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ An improved retail and leisure experience that responds to innovation and change in the sector. ▪ A diverse evening and night-time economy and enhanced culture offer ▪ A more co-ordinated approach to managing the area’s freight, servicing, and delivery demands Heart of London area
Figure 8: WERLSPA and Tottenham Court Road Opportunity Area
Source: Westminster City Council City Plan 2019-40
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
▪ Protection of the unique character of central London’s distinct and iconic places and heritage assets
CONCLUSIONS
24
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 25
2
4
3
INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
1
Logic Model
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
i.e. Placeshaping Strategy
Strategic public realm investment DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
CABE (2007) methodology
Increase in footfall, dwell time, and area attractiveness
Incremental impact on sectoral use
Enhances real estate values
Increase in jobs, GVA, business rates
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
A strand of the case for cycling, walking, and public realm investment is based on the concept that improvements potentially could have a positive impact on the attractiveness of an area to visitors, workers and residents. This, in turn, enhances the land values of commercial and residential properties.
Healthy Streets Assessment*
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
THE CASE FOR PUBLIC REALM INVESTMENT
1
SCENARIO RESULTS
The diagram to the right shows the logic model for linking public realm investment to increased economic performance, jobs and area attractiveness.
2
3
4
5
A full methodology note can be found in Appendix A.
Which in turn supports
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Which in turn supports
Increased attractiveness of the area for residents, businesses and visitors alike
6
Economic, planning and wider context THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
* The Healthy Streets Assessment was developed by Transport for London (TfL) and has superseded the Pedestrian Environment Review System (PERS). The Healthy Streets Assessment is a multi-criteria assessment tool designed to assess the quality of the pedestrian environment by placing scores on several characteristics and assessing the qualities of a particular street regarding its link or place function.
CONCLUSIONS
26
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA WEST END ECOSYSTEM
PLACESHAPING STRATEGY
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Heart of London Business Alliance’s Placeshaping Strategy proposals to reinvigorate the West End will enhance the unique character with permanent improvements to streets and spaces for residents, visitors and workers.
1
2
3
4
The Heart of London Placeshaping Strategy will deliver a high‑quality public realm which supports: SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ More walking and cycling ▪ Contrasting character areas
5
▪ Spectacular gateways ▪ Side streets transformed into attractive new places to visit and dwell HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ Less traffic and pollution ▪ Opportunities for spectacle and celebration in the public realm ▪ Animated upper levels of buildings ▪ A strengthened night-time experience through varied and complementary uses
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Source: Placeshaping Strategy, Publica 27
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
44 projects have been identified for the area, for specific streets and spaces and were compiled into five project families, namely Leicester Square and Piccadilly Circus; St. Martin’s Lane area; Haymarket District; Regent Street and St James’s; and Piccadilly. These proposed interventions for streets and public spaces are shown graphically on the map opposite.
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Do Minimum / Chequered Growth
This scenario builds on the Placeshaping Strategy for the Heart of London area.
The ‘Do Minimum / Chequered Growth’ scenario includes schemes included in Westminster’s Local Implementation Plan 3. INVESTING IN SUCCESS
This section describes two scenarios of public realm improvement to assess the potential economic impact on the Heart of London area. These scenarios are explained in detail below.
Placeshaping Strategy / Good Growth
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
INVESTMENT SCENARIOS
SCENARIO RESULTS HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY CONCLUSIONS
28
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
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8
Progress to date Placeshaping Strategy Description
Coventry Street
Enhance the existing condition through a more unified streetscape strategy and improvement of the pedestrian experience.
The Londoner
Highlight a pleasant and useful connection from Leicester Square to Trafalgar Square, creating an inviting gateway to the Haymarket area.
Rupert Street
Upgrade the material condition and streetscape and widen footways
St Martin’s Court
Enhance the northern arm of this unique and characterful connection by introducing additional street furniture.
Jermyn Street
Footway widening in high quality materials
Placeshaping Strategy
Placeshaping and Public Realm projects – progress snapshot
1
2
3
4
50 45
SCENARIO RESULTS
The completed projects outlined below are accounted for in the Do Minimum scenario, as well as the revised Healthy Streets Assessment.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
Since the publication of the Placeshaping Strategy in 2019, a number of public realm interventions have been completed. As of August 2022, five out of 44 projects have been completed, with a further 20 either in the feasibility or design stages. The priority projects which Heart of London Business Alliance has progressed to feasibility and design are St. Martin’s Lane, Charing Cross Road, Sackville and Vigo Street, Green Park and Piccadilly Gate and the Arts Quarter. The strategy and the priority projects can be seen at westend2027.com
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
Completed project/area
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
INVESTMENT SCENARIOS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
40
5
35 30 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
25 20 15
6
10
0 October 2019 Not commenced
Feasibility
29
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
Build
Completed
Total CONCLUSIONS
Source: Heart of London Business Alliance
Design
May 2022
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
5
7
8
Public realm investment scenarios
Do minimum / Chequered Growth
Step change in the level of investment in cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm. A comprehensive plan for improvements to the streets and spaces in the area
Business as usual level of investment in cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm schemes and interventions included in the Local Implementation Plan 2019-22 and planning pipeline
Reinforces the case for
Challenges
Facilitates
Relationship between investment scenarios and trends affecting the West End
Destination diversification
Increased diversification Investment in cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm supports a more dynamic property market that has diversified into new forms of retail, culture, leisure, experience, circular economy offers and other uses in the area.
Slower adaptation Lower levels of investment in cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm fail to attract inward investment in a timely manner, and transform streets further. This will limit, in the short and medium term, the diversification into retail, leisure, experience and other uses in the area.
Evolution of consumer culture
Transition to experience economy An ambitious transformation of the cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm can increase the attractiveness of the area and transform the way visitors, tourists and workers shop and experience places. This also responds to how digital has impacted retail. As a consequence, higher footfall and dwell time is induced. The clustering of attractions increases spend in the area, which is not wholly capitalised by rents. Additional tax yields are generated.
Traditional buyer economy maintained Lower levels of investment in cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm and a less dynamic environment maintain the status quo of retail compared to experience. Retail in the area is less competitive compared to other global centres. The area remains a strong visitor attractor, but lower investment fails to increase dwell time or spend and tax yield above trend.
See Appendix E for sector analysis.
30
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Source: Arup analysis based on Publica Placeshaping Strategy for the Heart of London Business Alliance
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Support of intensification Increased attractiveness may still support lower levels of development and intensification, but not a step change in investment
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Accelerated development Investment in cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm creates positive synergies, with more private developer funding available for cycling, walking infrastructure and public realm and increase in development values
SCENARIO RESULTS
It can also support growth by creating opportunities for infill developments and some extensions/increases in capacity to floorspace and by fostering the property market’s ability to adapt to changing demands. Retaining some of the proceeds from growth in the local area is one way that investments in the public realm can be funded.
Planning Policy: facilitation of development
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
There is a two‑way relationship between investment in public realm and trends leading to good growth outcomes in the West End. Investment in the public realm will have an effect on footfall, dwell time and attractiveness of the area, which will, in turn, improve business performance.
Leads to
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
INVESTMENT SCENARIOS
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Placeshaping Strategy / Good Growth
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 INVESTING IN THE CONTINUED SUCCESS OF THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA WEST END ECOSYSTEM
THE CASE FOR PUBLIC REALM INVESTMENT
International case studies can offer additional insights on the positive impacts of strategic public realm investment.
The 2010 Green Light for Midtown project, which created a number of pedestrian plazas in the Times Square and Herald Square areas, brought:
The analysis of global benchmarks such as Times Square and Midtown, New York (see Appendix C for a full list), including global entertainment destinations that benefitted from major public realm investment, provides additional evidence on:
▪ Significant increases in pedestrian volumes (+11% at Times Square)
▪ The value and impact of “attractors” such as cultural institutions and entertainment activities,
▪ The role played by the programming and curation of activities in supporting the attractiveness and vibrancy of the district
▪ A decrease in particulate matter in the area (-40%) ▪ A decrease in pedestrian injuries (-35%) The emerging evidence across the sample of case studies also suggests that: ▪ Cultural institutions are significant attractors that drive footfall for neighbouring uses
▪ Digital strategies in addition to public realm improvements and urban district management strategies are becoming increasingly important to manage pedestrian flows and maintain quality of life in popular attractor areas ▪ All of the comparator cities have recognised the importance of strategic public and private collaboration ▪ There is strong importance placed on curating spaces through well-planned programming of temporary activities
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
▪ Successful global retail districts are more likely to have adjacent attractors and a mix of uses, including leisure, food & beverage, hotels, residential and offices, to create vibrancy into the evening
▪ There is either a long-established policy of pedestrianisation and reducing vehicle access or a move towards increasing this for all areas analysed
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ The linkages between public realm investment and high footfall
▪ Higher satisfaction with the overall experience from visitors
▪ Improvements to the public realm tend to have a significant impact on pedestrian vibrancy and attraction of an area, drawing additional footfall and spend
SCENARIO RESULTS
Evidence from global benchmarks
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
Learning from best practice
31
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Source: Cris Tagupa, Unsplash
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
3 WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 32
2
5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SCENARIO RESULTS
1
Placeshaping Strategy / Good Growth
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
Net change in floorspace compared to 2022 -11%
-6%
0%
6%
4% 5%
Office 2%
Hotel
2%
6%
4%
F&B
4%
Entertainment
4%
Change to 2030
9%
2
3
9% INVESTING IN SUCCESS
Change to 2040
SCENARIO RESULTS
A “do minimum” approach to investment in the public realm may lead in the long term to a decline of floorspace across most commercial uses, with a potential total loss of 6,000 sqm of commercial spaces by 2040.
Residential
11%
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
By 2030, the Placeshaping Strategy could drive the creation of around 32,000 sqm additional floorspace in the Heart of London area, including 19,000 sqm of additional office floorspace. This would, in turn, create over 2,000 new jobs and drive GVA growth as well as increased rents and business rates.
11%
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
2%
Retail
1
Do Minimum / Chequered Growth
4
5
Net change in floorspace compared to 2022 -6%
Retail
0%
-2%
Office
-1%
-1%
-1%
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
Change to 2030
-2%
Change to 2040
-1%
6
7
0% CONCLUSIONS
Entertainment
4%
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
2%
Hotel
F&B
11%
0%
0% 0%
Residential
33
6%
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
-11%
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Economic Impacts of Both Scenarios 2022
▪ Local GVA contribution is estimated to be boosted by 39%, adding £1.9bn to the local economy by 2030 and 122% by 2040, while a “do minimum” scenario would achieve a 102% growth over the same time
▪ By 2030, the Strategy is estimated to generate £145m additional rental income compared to 2022 levels
Absolute value in 2040 – Do Minimum
Absolute value in 2040 – Placeshaping Strategy
45,400
45,760 (+1%)
47,450 (+5%)
47,750 (+5%)
51,670 (+14%)
Net GVA (£m)
4,900
6,540 (+33%)
6,790 (+39%)
10,000 (104%)
10,890 (+122%)
Residents
1,400
1,430 (+2%)
1,440 (+3%)
1,470 (+5%)
1,480 (+6%)
Homes
1,080
1,100 (+2%)
1,110 (+3%)
1,130 (+5%)
1,140 (+6%)
▪ Detailed results by sub‑areas can be found in Appendix B 188,800,000
215,250,000 (+14%)
232,893,000 (+23%)
235,212,000 (+25%)
280,663,000 (+49%)
Additional rents (£)
676,100,000
739,200,000 (+9%)
821,700,000 (+22%)
772,700,000 (+14%)
903,700,000 (+34%)
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Business rates (£)
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Net Jobs (FTE)
SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ Total business rates collected are also likely to experience a significant increase (+23%) by 2030 as opposed to a 14% growth in a business-as-usual scenario
Absolute value in 2030 – Placeshaping Strategy
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
▪ By 2030, improvements in cycling, walking and public realm are estimated to support 2,050 additional jobs in the Heart of London area (+5%), and 6,270 more (+14%) by 2040
Absolute value in 2030 – Do Minimum
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
The Placeshaping Strategy can play a pivotal role in boosting economic performance in the Heart of London area. Key findings of the economic impact assessment of the Strategy show:
CONCLUSIONS
34
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Interventions in each of the investment scenarios could make some walking and cycling trips quicker and more attractive by providing more and better quality space for cyclists and pedestrians. Physical activity benefits When people choose to cycle or walk there are significant health benefits, including extended life expectancy.
Pedestrians value improved public realm and more footway space. Cyclists value better cycling infrastructure. Investment in the public realm can deliver:
▪ Fewer collisions and casualties ▪ Better local air quality ▪ Less noise ▪ Health and wellbeing benefits
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
▪ Reduced carbon emissions
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ More cycling and walking
SCENARIO RESULTS
Journey quality benefits
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
Investing in the public realm encourages an attractive and less congested environment for all users. This would encourage more walking and cycling, improve health and wellbeing and provide new and reinvigorated places to dwell and spend time in the Heart of London area.
Journey time savings for cyclists and pedestrians
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENTS
CONCLUSIONS
35
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
3 WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 36
2
6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
1
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
a n s f ro m a ll Pedes tri w a l k s o f l i fe
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
a n d re s t
to s
top
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
2
ce
3
o
P la
dd fe e
l sa
fe
Pe o lk , c yc l e p l e c h o s e t o w a p o r t a n d u s e p u b lic tr a ns
N
t ot
oo
no
is
Number of ‘zero’ scores Existing layout = 3 Proposed layout = 0
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
ple
y
eo
P
▪ Pedestrians from all walks of life
To give an example of the scale of potential improvement for people who live, work or visit the Heart of London area, the diagrams (right) show the assessment for Whitcomb Street (from the Placeshaping Strategy), with the second diagram highlighting the pedestrian and cycle experience aspects.
e an
It uses ten indicators:
o se
The Healthy Streets Assessment (HSA) framework is used to assess the current condition of streets and also proposed improvements from a human health and well‑being perspective.
shelter and de Sha
Thi n g s t
FRAMEWORK
1
Eas yt oc ro ss
People feel rela xed
ir na ea Cl
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Placeshaping Strategy
4
▪ Easy to cross Optimised HSA scoring
▪ Places to stop and rest
a n s f ro m a ll Pedes tri w a l k s o f l i fe
▪ Not too noisy
ir na ea Cl
▪ Clean air
o
P la
dd
ce
e an
to s
top
o se
fe e
l sa
fe
Pe o lk , c yc l e p l e c h o s e t o w a p o r t a n d u s e p u b lic tr a ns
t No
to
o
no
is
Number of ‘zero’ scores Existing layout = 3 Proposed layout = 0
CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
ple
6
7
y
P
eo
37
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Thi n g s t
a n d re s t
▪ People feel relaxed
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ Things to see and do
shelter and de Sha
▪ People feel safe
5
Eas yt oc ro ss
People feel rela xed
▪ People choose to walk, cycle and use public transport
SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ Shade and shelter
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Heart of London area
Piccadilly & St James’s
Leicester Square
St Martin’s Lane area
Links
60%
70%
62%
Public Spaces
70%
77%
73%
Links
62%
69%
64%
Public Spaces
60%
72%
63%
Links
62%
73%
66%
Public Spaces
77%
83%
80%
Links
64%
75%
66%
Public Spaces
70%
83%
73%
* The definition of “Links” and “Public spaces” was kept consistent with the 2019 PERS assessment, where “link” applies to “any footway, footpath or highway”, whereas “Public spaces vary in size from small plazas to parks” https://content.tfl.gov.uk/ pedestrian-environment-review-system-factsheet.pdf For the full list of audit areas please see Appendix D.
50%
Average HSA Score
100%
Good HSA Score
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
0%
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Across each area grouping, the level of change is more subtle, with a more general improvement in those areas with place function than link function. This reflects the inclusion of increased engagement and activity in those places within the HSA, something which the 2019 report PERS methodology did not take into consideration.
Do minimum / Chequered Growth
SCENARIO RESULTS
These increases are largely linked to a reduction in vehicle movements and improvements in surface materials and planting. Significant increases in elements affecting “Shade and shelter” and “Places to stop and rest” are reflected in the uplifts in the weighted scores, while uplifts in “Things to see and do” and “Clean air” also contribute to the overall increase.
Placeshaping Strategy / Good Growth
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Healthy Streets Assessment shows consistent uplifts across each of the areas. The biggest changes observed due to the Placeshaping Strategy are in the Arts Quarter and wider Leicester Square area, with Panton Street and Whitcomb Street seeing percentage point increases to the overall HSA scores of 33 and 19, respectively.
Baseline
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
KEY FINDINGS
CONCLUSIONS
38
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
3 WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 39
2
7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA WEST END ECOSYSTEM
THE ARTS QUARTER The Arts Quarter will further support local growth, with the potential, by 2040, to:
The Arts Quarter will bring together a dynamic cluster of cultural organisations, commercial businesses and civic spaces connecting four key destinations: Trafalgar Square, Leicester Square, Piccadilly and Haymarket.
▪ Double the net GVA produced in the quarter from £200m to £420m
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY CONCLUSIONS
40
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
3
4
▪ Drive a 38% uplift in commercial rents
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
The Arts Quarter presents a unique opportunity to maximise underused commercial and public realm space to create jobs, attract international tourists and generate spend.
2
▪ Increase business rates revenue by 44%
SCENARIO RESULTS
Public realm improvement strategies include improving connectivity with the neighbouring areas, reduction of traffic, increasing greenery and a programme that supports cultural expression and night-time experience.
▪ Create 300 new jobs
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Heart of London Business Alliance is leading the creation and promotion of a new Arts Quarter.
1
5
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA WEST END ECOSYSTEM
SETTING THE SCENE
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
This section outlines the economic benefits of creating a new Arts Quarter in the West End. The Arts Quarter will bring together a dynamic cluster of cultural organisations, commercial businesses and civic spaces connecting four existing destinations: Trafalgar Square, Leicester Square, Piccadilly and Haymarket. The area is bringing together a rich 250+ year old heritage across theatre, fashion, craft, film and the visual arts, transforming it into a new destination of exemplary culture and art.
SCENARIO RESULTS
This newly-created area will enable the Heart of London area to: ▪ Invest in creativity, innovation, and cross‑sector collaboration ▪ Generate economic and social value and inclusive growth
1
2
3
4
5
▪ Deliver tangible cultural infrastructure ▪ Create new investor opportunities HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ Support homegrown content and be a platform for London talent
It is an opportunity to maximise underused commercial and public realm space to create jobs, attract international tourists and ultimately generate spend.
Source: The Arts Quarter Prospectus 2022, Heart of London Business Alliance
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
The Arts Quarter will be a new hub for world‑class arts and culture around themes: cultural innovation (a “gallery without walls”), co‑creation with culture unlocking economic and social value and supporting creativity by promoting accessible innovation.
CONCLUSIONS
41
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA WEST END ECOSYSTEM
PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Arts Quarter will bring the network of small and characterful streets to life with arts and culture connecting the surrounding destinations of Trafalgar Square, Leicester Square, Piccadilly and Haymarket and capitalising on the Heart of London area’s unique appeal.
SCENARIO RESULTS
It will transform back streets and buildings in London’s West End into an exciting new and vibrant destination. The five streets and their intersections will be transformed through public art and public realm design.
1
2
3
4
5
Streets will be designed to enable conversion into spaces for cultural activity, with traffic circulation planned and managed, allowing for a programme of curated events and activities. HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Source: The Arts Quarter Prospectus 2022, Heart of London Business Alliance 42
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA WEST END ECOSYSTEM
PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS
1
2
3
Improvements across the Arts Quarter will include: ▪ Activation of blank frontages with art, banners, projections ▪ Opportunities for sculpture in the public realm
Source: Heart of London bid – Arts Quarter Strategy
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
▪ Timed traffic-free spaces and footway widening
4
▪ Public seating ▪ Line of trees along the north section of Whitcomb Street SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ Catenary lighting to enhance the street at night ▪ Activation of premises beyond daytime ▪ Use of projections and sound to enliven the space during evening and night-time
5
▪ New planting and trees to create green corridors ▪ New pocket gardens to provide a space for dwelling and increase biodiversity HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
Traffic‑free public realm cutting through the National Gallery and due to be remodelled, Jubilee Walk connects with St. Martins Street to form an intimate street connection through to St. Vincent House and The Londoner at the heart of the Arts Quarter.
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
43
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
CONCLUSIONS
Approaching THE ARTS QUARTER from Regent Street Source: Publica
6
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
a n s f ro m a ll Pedes tri w a l k s o f l i fe
People feel rela xed
Eas yt oc ro ss
a n d re s t
o
P la
dd
ce
e an
to s
top
o se
y
fe e
l sa
fe
Pe o lk , c yc l e p l e c h o s e t o w a p o r t a n d u s e p u b lic tr a ns
No
tt
oo
no
Pedestrians from all walks of like
61
76
Easy to cross
67
81
Shade and shelter
33
33
Places to stop and rest
27
73
Not too noisy
67
80
People choose to walk, cycle and use public transport
61
76
People feel safe
61
77
Things to see and do
33
67
People feel relaxed
62
78
Clean air
42
58
Overall Healthy Streets check score
59
76
Number of zero scores
1
0
Proposed layout score from applicable metrics
39
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
Proposed layout
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
P
Source: CoStar
ple
is
Existing layout
SCENARIO RESULTS
Thi n g s t eo
Healthy Streets Indicator scores (%)
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
ir na ea Cl
shelter and de Sha
The audit of the Arts Quarter’s public spaces and routes was based on the Healthy Streets Assessment (HSA). The Healthy Streets Assessment shows the Arts Quarter will create better public spaces, cycling and walking routes to benefit residents, workers and visitors to the West End.
Healthy Streets Assessment existing versus proposed for St Martin’s Street in the Arts Quarter
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
CONCLUSIONS
44
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
Annual baseline level
Net impact of intervention compared to Do Minimum
2022
2030
Net jobs
1,800
1,900
+5%
2,100
+14%
Net GVA
£200m
£250m
+25%
£420m
+105%
Business rates
£13m
£15m
+22%
£18m
+44%
Commercial rents
£47m
£59m
+28%
£65m
+38% SCENARIO RESULTS
% increase compared to 2022 % additional compared to Do Minimum strategy Results in 2030 and 2040 are the net additional compared to 2022 levels
2
3
2040 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
The Arts Quarter area public realm improvements will deliver tangible economic benefits. If the improvements increase the pedestrian environment such that it increases footfall, dwell time and overall area attractiveness, businesses will benefit, and jobs will be created. Some of those benefits will be capitalised in higher rents for the property owners, and those benefits will also be shared back to local government in the form of business rates.
Net impact compared to baseline
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL OUTPUTS
1
4
5
Source: Arup analysis
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY CONCLUSIONS
45
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
6
7
8
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
3 WEST END ECOSYSTEM
4 INVESTING IN SUCCESS
5 SCENARIO RESULTS
6 HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
7 THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
8 CONCLUSIONS
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area 46
2
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CONCLUSIONS
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
8 CONCLUSIONS
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
This all contributes to a ‘good growth’ scenario, which could increase jobs and GVA by 14% and 122%, respectively, over the period from 2022 to 2040. This compares to a 5% and 104% increase for jobs and GVA for a “business‑as‑usual” scenario over the same period.
SCENARIO RESULTS
However, this research shows that the private sector plans to invest at least £2.8 billion in the Heart of London area’s buildings over the coming years. To maintain the area’s existing cultural, tourism and business attractors, a step‑change in commercial investment, public realm investment and place management is required, spearheaded by public‑private collaboration.
Investment in line with the Placeshaping Strategy will improve the area’s walking and cycling routes, public realm, property, curation of retail and occupiers, and public space activation through culture and arts.
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
However, the area has not yet fully recovered from COVID-19, with jobs, rents, GVA and visitor numbers still below their 2019 trend line. As a destination, this part of London is in competition for both visitors and inward investment with other world‑class destinations.
The Healthy Street indicators are a good proxy of wider benefits that can be achieved by investing in cycling, walking and the public realm. Business cases commissioned by the Heart of London Business Alliance demonstrate the benefits of more walking and cycling, less traffic and pollution and fewer collisions, further enhancing the case for public sector investment in the area.
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
The Heart of London area makes a unique and important contribution to the economic success of Westminster, the wider West End, London and the UK economies by attracting millions of visitors to London.
CONCLUSIONS
47
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
1
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8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
8 CONCLUSIONS
DEFINING THE HEART OF LONDON AREA
▪ St Martin’s Lane ▪ The Arts Quarter ▪ Piccadilly and Green Park Gateway
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
▪ Invest in the feasibility and design of the next tranche of cycling, walking and public realm projects to support the West End’s attractiveness as a sustainable place to invest, visit and live
CONCLUSIONS
48
▪ Support projects that can address the climate emergency and to support the recovery of the West End
THE ARTS QUARTER CASE STUDY
This analysis and the project’s business cases show that the Heart of London area has a strong case for investment in a delivery programme.
▪ Support partnership funding models with private sector and public sector investment to fast‑track priority public realm schemes
HEALTHY STREETS ASSESSMENT
▪ Sackville and Vigo Street
▪ Allocate public funds to projects with the highest benefit‑cost ratio and contribution to public policy goals
SCENARIO RESULTS
▪ Charing Cross Road
▪ Fast-track delivery of the Heart of London Business Alliance’s cycling, walking and public realm projects
INVESTING IN SUCCESS
Fast‐tracking Heart of London area priority projects can also contribute to addressing the climate emergency at the local level by encouraging more cycling and walking:
Key recommended actions are:
WEST END ECOSYSTEM
Investing in the Heart of London area Placeshaping Strategy can deliver economic and social benefits for all stakeholders.
1
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GLOSSARY
49
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
BRES Business Register and Employment Survey
LSE London School of Economics
S106 Section 106
CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate
LSOA Lower Layer Super Output Area
TfL Transport for London
CAZ Central Activities Zone
NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide
TRL Transport Research Laboratory
F&B Food and Beverage
NIA Net Internal Area
ULEZ Ultra Low Emission Zone
GIA Gross Internal Area
NIOD Northern Isles of Dogs
VOA Valuation Office Agency
GLA Greater London Authority
ONS Office for National Statistics
WESPRA West End Special Retail Policy Area
GVA Gross Value Added
PERS Pedestrian Environment Review System
WCC Westminster City Council
HCA Housing and Communities Agency
PTAL Public Transport Accessibility Level
HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle
RIBA Royal Institute of British Architects
HOLBA Heart of London Business Alliance
SIC Standard Industrial Classification
LDD London Development Database
Sqm Square meters
IMPORTANT NOTICE
This report has been prepared specifically for and under the instructions and requirements of the Heart of London Business Alliance, under an appointment dated 19 July 2019 in connection with making the economic case for public realm investment in the Heart of London area. In February 2022, the Heart of London Business Alliance commissioned an update to the original report, including the most recent available data. This report is prepared for use and reliance by our client only. No third party is entitled to rely on this report. Accordingly, we disclaim all liability of whatever nature (including in negligence) to any third party other than to our client. In preparing this report we have relied on information provided by others and we do not accept responsibility for the content, including the accuracy and completeness, of such information.
50
The Economic Case for Public Realm Investment in the Heart of London Area
In no circumstances do we accept liability in relation to information used by us which has been provided by others. We emphasise that the forward-looking projections, forecasts, or estimates are based upon interpretations or assessments of available information at the time of writing. The realisation of the prospective financial information is dependent upon the continued validity of the assumptions on which it is based. Actual events frequently do not occur as expected, and the differences may be material. For this reason, we accept no responsibility for the realisation of any projection, forecast, opinion or estimate. Findings are time-sensitive and relevant only to current conditions at the time of writing. We will not be under any obligation to update the report to address changes in facts or circumstances that occur after the data of our report that might materially affect the contents of the report of any of the conclusions set forth therein. No person other than our client may use or rely on the contents in this report without out prior written permission.
Any copying or use of this report (in whole or in part) by any party whatsoever shall be accompanied by or incorporate this notice at all times. We accept no responsibility for, and have not authorised, the contents of any report, prospectus, supplementary prospectus, listing particulars, supplementary listing particulars, presentation or other document or communication in respect of the sale, acquisition, offering or transfer of any shares or securities or interest in them, whether on the primary or secondary market or otherwise, which uses, includes or incorporates any report, deliverable or information, or any element thereof, prepared by us under or in connection with this agreement. Ove Arup & Partners Limited May 2022
Heart of London Business Alliance 80 – 81 St. Martin’s Lane London WC2N 4AA 020 7734 4507 holba.london