Joint Forum for Resolution to the Third Kashmir War between Pakistan and India NICHOLAS BEKKER
Hofstra University Model United Nations Conference
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Dear Delegates, It is my honor and privilege to personally welcome you to Hofstra University's Model United Nations Conference. Every year it is our University's pleasure to host bright, enterprising high school students, such as yourself, from all over Long Island and beyond to promote international awareness and constructive debate. My name is Nick Bekker, and I will be your chair for this year's contemporary crisis committee. This is my second year in Model UN at Hofstra and in total, as my high school did not have a Model UN club. For this reason, it is my great joy to help run this conference and give you an opportunity that I did not have. Although I have not done MUN for long, I served as a dais for the contemporary crisis committee last year at HUMUNC and in the fall semester I was also a delegate at the University of Pennsylvania's Model UN Conference. In addition, I also serve as our club's secretary, and am involved in the club's day-to-day affairs. This year, our future crisis committee will focus on the Third Kashmir War. This is a future crisis which is impending due to rising tensions between India and Pakistan. This will not be the first time the two countries have fought, as they have had three major conflicts since the two states were created. Additionally, there was a significant skirmish in 1999 after both powers had access to nuclear weapons, in addition to people getting killed at the border over the past several years. Besides rising military tensions, there have also been rising political tensions after recent elections. This has led my crisis director Gopal Khandelwal and I to think this situation would be appropriate for this year's crisis. I cannot wait to work with you all to deal with this crisis. Sincerely, Nick Bekker 2019 HUMUNC Future Crisis Committee Chair
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Third Kashmir War Crisis Committee This committee has been formed for the sole purpose of resolving the current conflict between Pakistan and India, with the point of contention being in the Kashmir region of Indiacontrolled Pakistan. This committee is thusly charged with finding a peaceful solution to the henceforth dubbed Third Kashmir War, and to do so quickly. This issue is considered a crisis of the utmost importance, chiefly because both belligerents are nuclear powers that are not bound by Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and to leave the issue unresolved could be devastating. The international community should also be concerned with Pakistan’s wish to draw fellow Muslim nations into the conflict under the pretext of a religious struggle to protect the Muslim population of Kashmir from Hindu-majority India. If it is successful in its endeavors, it may create a dangerously large conflict that is impossible to contain, so we must do so while it is small. It should be noted that neither India nor Pakistan have agreed to attend this forum, and the situation must be handled without either nation coming to the table. This may prove difficult as the committee will have no influence over the actions of either state, so it would be most advantageous if the members of the forum could pool their influence to affect the actions of the conflicting nations. However, thanks to the availability of intelligence on both of these conflicting nations, we will be able to closely monitor each states' actions and consistently provide the committee with live updates of said actions. Members of our committee will be able to correspond with representatives of India and Pakistan and can expect relatively timely responses.
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Background/History This is not the first conflict that has been waged between the belligerents; as matter of fact, India and Pakistan have engaged in multiple wars and lower-level conflicts since their birth as independent countries. Pakistan has fought a series of wars with India over varying territorial disputes, with the most often point of conflict being Kashmir. Before 1947, the territory that today comprises Pakistan and India were united under the control of the British Empire. The Indian Independence Act of 1947 split British India into two states 1, India, (today known as the Republic of India) 2, and Pakistan, (East and West sections which today comprise the states of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan 3 and the People’s Republic of Bangladesh). 4 These divisions were based off of religious distribution, with mostly Muslim population regions being partitioned into Pakistan and mostly Hindu population regions being partitioned into India. While the majority of the people already lived in regions of religious majority populations in the newly emerging countries, approximately 14 million people lived outside these regions and left their homes to travel to the country that aligned with their religion. 5 This religious division is one of the main factors which continues to cause conflict between India and Pakistan. The other factor is disputed territory from the 1947 partition, in particular, the princely states of Jammu and Kashmir, which Britain failed to successfully integrate into either India or Pakistan 6 and have drawn the two states into conflict three times. The first of these wars was fought in 1947, commonly known as the “First Kashmir War”. 7 In this conflict, India and Pakistan fought for control of the poorly partitioned state of Jammu and Kashmir. After one year of fighting, Pakistan gained control of one-third of the territory, 8 while India gained control of the rest. 9 Where the territory was divided between the two states was meant to be a temporary border, but it is still the de facto border today, known as the Line of
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Control (LoC). 10 The second of these conflicts was the Second Indo-Pakistani War of 1965, which ended in a United Nations-mandated ceasefire. While the war only lasted approximately one month, over 8,000 combatants died, 11 and it featured the largest tank engagement since World War II. 12 The third of these military conflicts was the Kargil War, which was waged in 1999, and was a fairly limited conflict in comparison to the other conflicts between the two nations. 13 In the beginning of the conflict Pakistan claimed attacks were carried out by local freedom fighters, but both sides then went on to shell one another in the region. 14 While not actual conflicts, there have been two large scale military standoffs between the two nations over the LoC between the Pakistani-controlled and Indian-controlled portions of Kashmir, since the Kargil War, one in 2001-2002 and another in 2008, as well as a series of border skirmishes, with the most recent in 2016. 151617 It should be noted that there was another significant conflict between India and Pakistan in 1971, however it was not waged over Kashmir, but rather over East Pakistan, which sought “autonomy and later independence� from West Pakistan. Due to intervention by India, it was successful at achieving separation from West Pakistan and is known today the independent state of Bangladesh. 18 It should also be noted that all of the conflicts between India and Pakistan culminated in an Indian victory, except for the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965, where India still had an upper hand in the fighting until the ceasefire was called. 19 Perhaps most importantly, however, is the fact that only one of these conflicts was waged between Pakistan and India after they became nuclear powers, as they are now, and it was by far the most limited of the four conflicts. Neither state is a signatory on the NPT, whose purpose is to stop the spread of nuclear weapons and to promote disarmament of currently existing nuclear weapons. 20 A third war over Kashmir has even higher
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stakes due to the nuclear option that each country has at its disposal, and which did not exist prior to the Kargil War. The effects of mobilizing the nuclear option would be catastrophic. As far as United Nations involvement, it is important to note that both Pakistan and India are non-permanent Security Council members, although neither are currently sitting members. The Security Council has passed resolutions for the region in the past, most notably its plebiscite plan from 1948. This plan called for a demilitarization of the region, as well as for Indian administration over the territory it had control over until the people of Kashmir could vote on which country should be there home, 21 but both Pakistan and India have interfered in allowing one. 22 Due to the recent nature of this conflict, there has not been any United Nations intervention in the region as of yet. The long-standing peacekeeping mission, UNMOGIP, 23 is in place as an observer. While the deployment of a larger peacekeeping force may be a possibility, but the conflict may escalate too quickly for that to be a viable option.
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Map of the Kashmir before the outbreak of Conflict 24
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Current Situation The conflict was initiated on May 1, 2019, when Pakistan sent an expeditionary force of 5,000 troops across the Line of Control to the Kargil district of India-controlled Kashmir. The swift invasion granted Pakistan control of the district and strategic city, which will likely be used as a staging area for further incursions into the rest of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. India has mobilized a force of 50,000 troops to meet Pakistani forces in the region. This is where our committee comes in to find a solution to the issue. The Pakistani armed forces have a total of 919,000 military personnel, 951 total aircraft, 2,924 combat tanks, and 197 in total naval assets. 25 The Indian armed forces include 4,207,250 military personnel, alongside 2,102 total aircraft, as well as 4,426 combat tanks and 295 naval assets. 26 It should also be noted that both of these states also have nuclear capabilities, with estimates of Indian warheads at 130-140 and estimates of Pakistani warheads at 140-150. 27 although it is hoped that the fact both sides possess weapons that the other will not attack with nuclear bombs. However, even if nuclear weapons are avoided, these are two states with huge, well-equipped militaries in close geographic proximity to major cities in each country that could wreak a type of havoc unseen since the World War II. The Pakistani invasion was spurred by three large terrorist attacks in Pakistan, in or around the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Karachi. The intended target appeared to be symbols of Pakistani wealth, as the terrorist attacks were carried out in the financial districts of Lahore and Karachi, the two wealthiest cities in Pakistan. These cities were also all relatively close to the Indo-Pakistani border, as the city limits of Lahore being within ten miles of Indian territory. In Karachi, a bomb was set off on the trading floor of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, claiming the
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lives of thirty-five brokers. Mr. Asad Umar, the Minister of Finance, Revenue and Economic Affairs of Pakistan was the supposed target, but he only sustained minor injuries. 28 Outside the city of Rawalpindi, there was a bombing at Rohtas Fort, a UNESCO World Heritage site for its status as "an exceptional example of early Muslim military architecture," which made this attack more cultural than financial. 29 Significant damage was done to the Kabuli Gate, and eight tourists were killed in the blast. In Lahore, seven bombs went off in the Expo Centre Lahore during a tech show, as the city has a large tech industry. The bombs killed 153 attendees of the Expo.30 This was immediately taken as an attack from India by the Pakistani government, as derogatory graffiti “Bharat Akela,� a shortening of the nationalist Hindi phrase "India alone shall dominate," was discovered near the site of each attack. This has been the calling card of radical Indian nationalists of the same name who are not associated with any sanctioned political party or governmental body. With this evidence, in addition to a "weak condemnation" from the Indian government, the Pakistani government saw these actions as full-fledged attacks against the nation, and responded accordingly. Independent observers say that the Pakistani government has also been longing to regain territory lost in the state of Kashmir, where there are majority Muslim populations. The bombings of Lahore and Rawalpindi were perpetrated on the April 3, 2019, and were thus dubbed the "Night Journey Bombings", as they took place on the Muslim holiday of the same name. 31 After the attack on the April 4th, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan declared the attacks not only an assault on Pakistan, but on Muslims across the globe. 32 He also claimed that if India did not pursue justice as quickly as Pakistan herself, then India may as well claim responsibility. Two days later on the April 6th, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi purported
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that his government had nothing to do with the attacks, and it was deeply offensive to have even imply involvement by India in such an attack. 33 The bombing of Karachi took place on April 20, 2019, which also took place on the Muslim religious holiday, Nishfu-Sha'ban. 34 The following day Imran Khan said this behavior would not be tolerated, and if India arrest and extradite leaders of Bharat Akela within two weeks, then Pakistan would be forced to take action protect Muslims "across the region." The following day, Prime Minister Modi responded that Khan would have better luck looking for the organizers in his own state, in accordance with rumors that these attacks were organized by Pakistani intelligence in order to justify a war to bring the Kashmir issue back into international prominence. Despite the two-week ultimatum deadline, Pakistan amassed forces on the LoC in Kashmir on April 30th, and on the May 1, 2019, 10,000 Pakistani troops stormed the Kargil region of India-controlled Kashmir. As of May 1st, a force of 50,000 troops on the Indian side are moving to meet Pakistani fighters. Bloc Positions Pakistan: Pakistan claims that India has attacked their commercial centers to stifle their economic success, and also because of their religious identity. They believe to be completely justified in invading the Kashmir as a retaliation against Indian aggression, as well as an act to protect the Muslim population that live under Indian administration in the Kashmir Valley.
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India: India believes there is absolutely no justification for the Pakistani assault. India claims that it has no connection to any of the terrorist attacks. They have stated they will do whatever is necessary in order to maintain their sovereignty in Kashmir. They purport that Pakistan does not believe that the Indian government was actually involved in the terrorist attacks, but rather that Pakistani officials are using the attacks as an excuse to maintain the historical trend of aggression that they have had against India, especially in Kashmir. Bangladesh: Bangladesh sees Pakistan’s invasion of Kashmir as an unjustified act of aggression and is concerned that a large conflict could destabilize the region. Bangladesh has a historical disdain for Pakistan, considering the atrocities it committed during what Bangladesh calls their “Liberation War� of 1971. 35 Bangladesh favors India in the dispute, as the two nations have excellent ties, both politically and culturally. Iran: While relations between India and Iran have been cordial, the connection between Iran and Pakistan has been much stronger. The current Ayatollah of Iran has claimed that the issue in Kashmir is an example of the worldwide Muslim struggle for freedom, and has also touted Pakistan as exemplar for their nuclear capabilities. 36 Iran has also been involved in joint military operations with Pakistan in the past. Russia:
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Russia has excellent relations with India, as it has historically since the days of the Soviet Union. Currently, Russia supplies approximately sixty-eight percent of India's arms, 37 and has also engaged in joint military operations with India in the past. 38 The two states are also deeply intertwined economically, with the former president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev even claiming that relations with India are one of Russia's biggest foreign policy priorities. 39 While Russia has had somewhat warm relations between themselves and Pakistan, they have been nowhere as close as those between Russia and India. United States: The United States has close relations with both nations in the conflict, as it is a large economic and defense partner to India, but it is also an ally to Pakistan, and considers it one of its major non-NATO allies. 40 In addition, the Trump administration has experienced positive relations with the Modi government in India, 41 but has had tensions with Imran Khan's government in Pakistan. 42 Experts are unsure if the United States will make a major commitment to either side of the conflict, but the current administration's positions make a Pakistani alliance far less likely than the alternative. China: China has been an economic and regional rival of India, and border disputes and even clashes as recently as 2017 have been particular flashpoints in their relations. 43 Conversely, Chinese relations with Pakistan have been extremely close, almost dating back to the creation of the PRC. China considers Pakistan a major strategic ally, as well as a link into the Muslim world. 44 Both nations have close economic ties with China though.
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Guiding Questions for the Committee •
Does Pakistan have justification for its actions in Kashmir, or reason behind assigning blame to the Indian government? Could other states justify supporting Pakistan's cause, or would it be a regional issue blown out of proportion?
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Is India justified in its acts of self-defense, or has it been taken to an unnecessary extent of retaliation? Could other states justify supporting India's cause, or should it be limited to a regional issue?
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What dangers may arise if the conflict is allowed to continue for too long? What are the implications for not only the citizens of the states involved in the conflict, but other citizens in the region?
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Should Pakistan and India be condemned for their failure to adhere to the NPT, and should a goal of this committee be for those two states to become signatories? Research Links
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT): https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/ Timeline of Indo-Pakistani Conflicts: http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/south_asia/2002/india_pakistan/timeline/defa ult.stm
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"Pakistan Military on 'High Alert'." Al Jazeera. December 23, 2008. Accessed December 20, 2018. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2008/12/20081222102547699277.html Pandit, Rajat. "Pakistan Remains Ahead in Nuclear Warheads but India Confident of Its Deterrence Capability - Times of India." The Times of India. June 19, 2018. Accessed December 17, 2018. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pakistan-has-morenuclear-warheads-india-credible-deterrence/articleshow/64641056.cms. Pike, John. "India-China Border Dispute." Global Security. February 21, 2018. Accessed December 21, 2018. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/indiachina_conflicts.htm. Presidential Staff. "Dmitry Medvedev And President Of India Pratibha Patil Held Talks In the Kremlin." President Of Russia. September 03, 2009. Accessed November 15, 2018. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/5360. "Rohtas Fort." United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. December 7, 1997. Accessed December 21, 2018. https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/586 Schofield, Victoria. “Kashmir’s Forgotten Plebiscite.” January 17, 2012. Accessed December 20, 2018. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1766582.stm "South Asia: Bangladesh." Central Intelligence Agency. December 04, 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/bg.html. "South Asia: India." Central Intelligence Agency. December 18, 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html. "South Asia: Pakistan." Central Intelligence Agency. December 03, 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html. State Department. "Pakistan." U.S. Department of State. August 23, 2018. Accessed November 15, 2018. https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3453.htm#relations. "Supporting Entrepreneurship." Punjab Information Technology Board. 2018. Accessed December 21, 2018. https://www.pitb.gov.pk/entrepreneurship. "Thematic Maps - Perry-Castañeda Map Collection - UT Library Online." University of Texas Libraries. Accessed December 07, 2018. https://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/kashmir.html. “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” opened for signature July 1, 1968, Treaty Series: Treaties and International Agreements Registered of Filed and Recorded with the Secretariat of the United Nations 729, no. 10485 (1974): 172, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20729/v729.pdf.
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“UNMOGIP factsheet.” United Nations Observer Group in India and Pakistan. Accessed December 20, 2018. https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/unmogip Vaidyanathan, Vaishnavi. "India-Russia Joint Military Exercise Scheduled For November." International Business Times. October 03, 2018. Accessed November 15, 2018. https://www.ibtimes.com/india-russia-joint-military-exercise-scheduled-november2721887. "UN Resolutions." Kashmir Valley. 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. http://kashmirvalley.info/un-resolutions/#.XB23E1xKg2w. United Kingdom. London. Indian Independence Act 1947 (1947 c. 30 (10 & 11. Geo. 6)). Woody, Christopher. "These Are the 25 Most Powerful Militaries in the World - and There's a Clear Winner." Business Insider. June 18, 2018. Accessed December 16, 2018. https://www.businessinsider.com/most-powerful-militaries-in-the-world-ranked-20182#4-india-22. Notes
United Kingdom. London. Indian Independence Act 1947 (1947 c. 30 (10 & 11. Geo. 6)). "South Asia: India." Central Intelligence Agency. December 18, 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. 3 "South Asia: Pakistan." Central Intelligence Agency. December 03, 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. 4 "South Asia: Bangladesh." Central Intelligence Agency. December 04, 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. 5 Kosinski, L.A., and Elahi, K.M. Population Redistribution and Development in South Asia. Springer Science & Business Media. 2012. p. 6. 6 United Kingdom. London. Indian Independence Act 1947 (1947 c. 30 (10 & 11. Geo. 6)). 7 Faruqui, Ahmad. "The First Kashmir War." Daily Times. September 18, 2017. Accessed December 20, 2018. “Indo-Pakistani Wars.” New World Encyclopedia. Accessed December 20, 2018. 8 CNN Library. “Kashmir Fast Facts.” March 25, 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. 9 "A Brief History of the Kashmir Conflict." The Telegraph. September 24, 2001. Accessed December 20, 2018. 10 Ibid. 11 "Are India's Plans to Celebrate 1965 War 'victory' in 'bad Taste'?" BBC News. August 13, 2015. Accessed December 20, 2018. 12 Dandapani, Vijay. "Unsung Hero." The Hindu. January 17, 2015. Accessed December 20, 2018. 13 BBC Staff. "India Pakistan | Timeline." BBC News. 2015. Accessed November 15, 2018. 14 Ibid. 15 Ibid. 16 "Pakistan Military on 'High Alert'." Al Jazeera. December 23, 2008. Accessed December 20, 2018. 17 Gowen, Annie, and Aamir Iqbal. "Cross-border Shelling between India and Pakistan Escalates Sharply; at Least 20 Dead." The Washington Post. November 23, 2016. Accessed November 15, 2018. 18 BBC Staff. "India Pakistan | Timeline." BBC News. 2015. Accessed November 15, 2018. 19 "Asia: Silent Guns, Wary Combatants." Time. October 01, 1965. Accessed December 20, 2018. 1 2
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“Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” opened for signature July 1, 1968, Treaty Series: Treaties and International Agreements Registered of Filed and Recorded with the Secretariat of the United Nations 729, no. 10485 (1974): 172 21 "UN Resolutions." Kashmir Valley. 2018. Accessed December 20, 2018. 22 Schofield, Victoria. “Kashmir’s Forgotten Plebiscite.” January 17, 2002. Accessed December 20, 2018. 23 “UNMOGIP factsheet.” United Nations Observer Group in India and Pakistan. Accessed December 20, 2018. 24 "Thematic Maps - Perry-Castañeda Map Collection - UT Library Online." University of Texas Libraries. Accessed December 07, 2018. 25 Woody, Christopher. "These Are the 25 Most Powerful Militaries in the World - and There's a Clear Winner." Business Insider. June 18, 2018. Accessed December 16, 2018. 26 Ibid. 27 Pandit, Rajat. "Pakistan Remains Ahead in Nuclear Warheads but India Confident of Its Deterrence Capability - Times of India." The Times of India. June 19, 2018. Accessed December 17, 2018. 28 Government of Pakistan. "Government of Pakistan: Ministry of Finance.” Accessed December 20, 2018 29 "Rohtas Fort." United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. December 7, 1997. Accessed December 21, 2018. 30 "Supporting Entrepreneurship." Punjab Information Technology Board. 2018. Accessed December 21, 2018. 31 Hilal, Habib Bin. "Islamic Calendar Year 2019 - Ummul Qura Hijri Dates." Alhabib Islamic Web Service. Accessed December 16, 2018. Hertzenberg, Stephanie. “Why is Isra’ Mi’raj Important to Muslims?” Accessed December 20, 2018. 32 Hashim, Asad. "Imran Khan Elected as Pakistan's Prime Minister." Al Jazeera. August 17, 2018. Accessed December 16, 2018. 33 Brookings Staff. "The Results of India's 2014 General Election." Brookings. July 29, 2016. Accessed December 16, 2018. 34 Hilal, Habib Bin. "Islamic Calendar Year 2019 - Ummul Qura Hijri Dates." Alhabib Islamic Web Service. Accessed December 16, 2018. 35 Mascarenhas, Anthony. "Genocide." The Sunday Times (13 June 1971). 36 Neelakantan, Shailaja. "Twice in 7 Days, Iran Talks of 'oppressed' Kashmir - Times of India." The Times of India. July 05, 2017. Accessed November 15, 2018. 37 Gupta, Arvind. "Deeper Defence & Security Cooperation with Russia Enhances India's Strategic Choices." The Economic Times. December 22, 2017. Accessed December 21, 2018. 38 Vaidyanathan, Vaishnavi. "India-Russia Joint Military Exercise Scheduled For November." International Business Times. October 03, 2018. Accessed November 15, 2018. 39 Presidential Staff. "Dmitry Medvedev And President Of India Pratibha Patil Held Talks In the Kremlin." President Of Russia. September 03, 2009. Accessed November 15, 2018. 40 "22 CFR 120.32 - Major Non-NATO Ally." Legal Information Institute. September 29, 2016. Accessed December 21, 2018. 41 "Modi Is a Good Friend but India Is a Tough Negotiator, Admits Donald Trump." The Economic Times. November 14, 2018. Accessed December 21, 2018. 42 Jorgic, Drazen. "Pakistan PM Imran Khan Lashes out at Trump 'tirade'." Reuters. November 19, 2018. Accessed December 21, 2018. 43 Pike, John. "India-China Border Dispute." Global Security. February 21, 2018. Accessed December 21, 2018. 44 Kuo, Mercy A. "China-Pakistan Relations: Challenging US Global Leadership." The Diplomat. May 30, 2018. Accessed November 15, 2018. 20