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A Decade of Change on Long Island: Implications for Community-Based and Regional Sustainability Sandra Garren sjgarren@mail.usf.edu Christopher Niedt christopher.niedt@hofstra.edu Robert Brinkmann robert.brinkmann@hofstra.edu Larry Levy lawrence.Levy@hofstra.edu

Paper to be included into Regions and Cohesion Journal

Overview Part 1. Background Introduction Research Questions Methods Part 2. Findings Population Age Race and Ethnicity Income Part 3. Discussion

Background – Introduction Long Island is home to the earliest suburban developments and has developed into a mosaic of small towns with low-density, car dependent communities in post WWII period. Long Island is characterized as having strong maritime history on the north shore, surbanization in the center, and low density, agricultural developments on the eastern portion of the island. Specifically, the public lexicon is that Long Island has experienced rapid shifts in population, particularly in young adults and racial diversity in the last decade.

The National Center for Suburban Studies is interested in demographic change and its impact on sustainability on Long Island to better inform the current sustainability movement growing on the island.

“…..Long Island’s immigrant population at 460,000, 18th largest in the country….” Sag Harbor Press

“While Long Island’s percentage of young people dropped by 15 percent, compared to a 5 percent increase nationwide, between 2000 and 2009, the percentage of Baby Boomers on Long Island – people over 55 – increased by 22 percent.” Long Island Business News

“Is there a brain drain on Long Island?” National Public Radio

“Greater diversity throughout Long Island, led by another surge in the Hispanic population.” Newsday

A need for quantitative data to demonstrate these shifts geographically and to provide data for researchers and policymakers.

Background – Research Questions 1. What is the distribution of population and population density on Long Island and how has it changed in the last 10 years? 2. What is the distribution of young adults (18-34 year olds) on Long Island and how has it changed in the last 10 years? 3. What is the distribution of different ethnic groups on Long Island and how has it changed in the last 10 years? 4. What is the distribution of household incomes on Long Island and how has it changed in the last 10 years?

Background – Methods Analysis in Summer, 2011 relied primarily upon data from the Decennial Census and 2005-2009 American Community Survey (ACS) Ulster Dutchess

Putnam

Orange

Westchester

Rockland

Suffolk

Bronx New York Queens

Nassau

Kings

Legend

Richmond

12.5

50 Miles

New York Counties Study Area Major Roads

Census Designated Places (Places) are incorporated and unincorporated places designated by the U.S. census for statistical purposes.

12.5

50 Miles

292 Census “Places” in Nassau and Suffolk County.

Used shapefiles from the US Census and the NYS GIS clearinghouse to map results

The Findings!

Findings Population

Total Population Total Population (2010) 0 - 4,000 4,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 20,000 20,001 - 40,000 40,001 - 60,664 Top 10 Population

Commack CDP

Hempstead village Hicksville CDP

Brentwood CDP

Coram CDP

West Babylon CDP Levittown CDP

Freeport village

East Meadow CDP

Valley Stream village 0

12.5

50 Miles

Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Total Population (2010) Top Ten Census Places on Long Island 1 2 3 4 5

Brentwood Hempstead village Levittown West Babylon Freeport village

60,664 53,891 51,881 43,213 42,860

6 7 8 9 10

Hicksville Coram East Meadow Valley Stream village Commack

41,547 39,113 38,132 37,511 36,124

Population Growth Percent Change in Population (2000 to 2010) -51% - 0% 0.1% - 5% 5.1% - 20% 20.1% - 100% 100.1% - 534.1% Top 10 Places

Noyack CDP Springs CDP

Rocky Point CDP Mount Sinai CDP Brookville village

Gordon Heights CDP

Bridgehampton CDP Manorville CDP North Bellport CDP

Melville CDP 0

40 Miles

Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Percentage Change in Total Population (2000-2010) (Top Ten Census Places in Long Island, Population [2000] ≥ 1,000) 1 2 3 4 5

Brookville village Mount Sinai Rocky Point Springs Noyack

63.0% 38.7% 37.6% 33.2% 32.3%

6 7 8 9 10

Gordon Heights Melville Manorville North Bellport Bridgehampton

30.6% 30.6% 28.6% 28.2% 27.2%

Population Density Population Density (2010) 26 - 500 501 - 2,000 2,001 - 4,000 4,001 - 6,000 6,001 - 21,485 Top 10 Population Density

Manorhaven village

Floral Park village Great Neck Plaza village

New Hyde Park village Williston Park village

Long Beach city Valley Stream village 0

12.5

South Floral Park village Notes Bellerose Terrace CDP 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places Hempstead village or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place 50 Miles geography.

Population Density, Persons per Square Mile (2010) (Top Ten Census Places on Long Island) 1 2 3 4 5

Great Neck Plaza village South Floral Park village Bellerose Terrace Long Beach city Hempstead village

21,485 18,379 17,637 15,025 14,636

6 7 8 9 10

Manorhaven village Williston Park village New Hyde Park village Floral Park village Valley Stream village

14,104 11,649 11,298 11,192 10,772

Findings Population Young Adults (Age 18-34 year old)

Age 18-34 Population Total Number of 18 to 34 Year Olds (2010) 0 - 500 501 - 2,000 2,001 - 4,000 4,001 - 8,000 8,001 - 16,863 Top 10 Places

Hempstead

Hicksville

Stony Brook University Huntington Station

Coram Central Islip Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Brentwood Levittown

West Babylon

Freeport 0

12.5

50 Miles

Age 18-34 Population (2010) (Top Ten Census Places on Long Island) 1 2 3 4 5

Brentwood Hempstead village Freeport village Levittown Central Islip

16,863 15,253 10,163 10,059 9,362

6 7 8 9 10

West Babylon Stony Brook University Coram Hicksville Huntington Station

9,025 8,721 8,712 8,601 8,131

Age 18-34 Population as % of Total Percentage of Age 18-34 of Total Population (2010) 0% - 10% 10.000001% - 15% 15.000001% - 20% 20.000001% - 25% 25.000001% - 94.6% Top 10 Places

Brookville

Old Westbury

Riverside Stony Brook University

Flanders Brentwood North Bay Shore New Cassel East Garden City Hempstead 0

12.5

50 Miles

Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Age 18-34 Population as a Percentage of Total (2010) (Top Ten Census Places on Long Island, Age 18-34 Population [2010] ≥ 1000) 1 2 3 4 5

Stony Brook University East Garden City Brookville village Old Westbury village Riverside

94.6% 63.7% 49.1% 39.0% 36.7%

6 7 8 9 10

New Cassel Hempstead village North Bay Shore Flanders Brentwood

29.6% 28.3% 28.3% 28.2% 27.8%

Age 18-34 Population Change Percent Change in Young Adults (2000 to 2010) -100% - 0% 0.1% - 5% 5.1% - 10% 10.1% - 25% 25.1% - 351.9% Top 10 Places

Old Westbury

Greenport North Sea

Amagansett

Flanders Brookville East Hampton North Bridgehampton Westhampton Beach

Hewlett Harbor 0

12.5

Notes 1. Data obtained from 2000 and 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

50 Miles

Percentage Change in Age 18-34 Population (2000-2010) (Top Ten Census Places in Long Island, Age 18-34 Population [2000] ≥ 1,000) 1 2 3 4 5

Brookville village Old Westbury village Bridghampton CDP Hewlett Harbor village Amagansett CDP

351.9% 41.3% 39.9% 36.3% 31.2%

6 7 8 9 10

Greenport village North Sea CDP Westhampton Beach village East Hampton North CDP Flanders CDP

30.7% 25.7% 23.4% 23.0% 23.0%

Long Island Population, Age 18-34, by race and ethnicity

2000 Race/Ethnicity White (Not Hispanic)

Total 18-34

2010

Percent of total

Total 18-34

Percent of Total

Percent change (2000-2010)

378,617

68.4%

319,560

57.9%

-15.6%

Black

54,862

9.9%

62,069

11.2%

13.1%

Asian

22,649

4.1%

34,974

6.3%

54.4%

Hispanic

89,677

16.2%

129,435

23.5%

44.3%

Total

553,221

551,870

-0.2%

Findings Population Age (18-34) Race and Ethnicity

Race White (Not Hispanic)

Total Number2 (2000)

Percent of Total Population (2000)

Total Number2 (2010)

Percent of Total Population (2010)

Percent Change in Total Population (2000 to 2010)

2,099,921

76.6

1,945,151

68.7

-7.4

Total Hispanic

281,793

10.3

441,467

15.6

56.7

Black (Not Hispanic)

221,804

8.1

243,321

8.6

9.7

Total Asian (Not Hispanic)

94,350

3.4

151,749

5.4

60.8

All Other Races

44,910

1.7

49,184

1.7

9.5

3,831

0.1

3,666

0.1

-4.3

American Indian or Alaska Native (Not Hispanic)

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander (Not Hispanic) Other One Race (Not Hispanic)

527

<0.0

472

<0.0

-10.4

5,208

0.2

7,777

0.3

49.3

Two or More Races (Not Hispanic) Total Population

35,344 2,742,778

1.3

37,269 2,830,872

1.3

5.4 3.2

Hispanic Population

Composition of the Hispanic Population

Guatemalan 4% All Other Hispanic 33%

Puerto Rican 27%

All Other Hispanics 21%

Salvadoran 23%

Honduran 5% Salvadoran 15% Honduran 2% Guatemalan 2% Ecuadoran 4%

Mexican Colombian 5% 5%

2000

Dominican 9%

Ecuadoran 6% Dominican 7%

Puerto Rican 20%

Mexican 6%

Colombian 6%

2010

Hispanic Population Total Hispanic Population (2010) 0 - 250 251 - 1,000 1,001 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 41,529 Top 10 Places

Brentwood CDP

Hempstead village New Cassel CDP

Huntington Station CDP

Central Islip CDP

Valley Stream village 0

12.5

Freeport village

North Bay Shore CDP Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Bay Shore CDP Uniondale CDP 50 Miles

Hispanic Population (2010) (Top Ten Census Places on Long Island) 1 2 3 4 5

Brentwood Hempstead village Central Islip Freeport village North Bay Shore

41,529 23,823 17,938 17,858 12,310

6 7 8 9 10

Huntington Station Uniondale Valley Stream village Bay Shore New Cassel

12,109 9,616 8,344 8,101 7,577

Hispanic Population as % of Total Pecent Hispanic of Total Population (2010) 0% - 5% 5.1% - 10% 10.1% - 25% 25.1% - 50% 50.1% - 68.5% Top 10 Places

East Hampton North CDP Brentwood CDP New Cassel CDP

Hempstead village

Flanders CDP Central Islip CDP

North Bay Shore CDP Freeport village 0

Inwood CDP 12.5

Uniondale CDP

50 Miles

Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Hispanic Population as a Percentage of Total (2010) (Top Ten Census Places on Long Island, Hispanic Population [2010] ≥ 1,000) 1 2 3 4 5

Brentwood North Bay Shore New Cassel Central Islip Hempstead village

68.5% 65.0% 53.9% 52.1% 44.2%

6 7 8 9 10

Inwood Freeport village Uniondale East Hampton North Flanders

42.8% 41.7% 38.8% 38.5% 37.5%

Change in the Hispanic Population Percent Change of Total Hispanic Population (2000 to 2010) -100% - 0% 0.1% - 25% 25.1% - 50% 50.1% - 100% 100.1% - 250% 250.1% - 468.9% Top 10 Places

Franklin Square CDP Uniondale CDP

Centereach CDP Wyandanch CDP

Hampton Bays CDP North Bellport CDP

Roosevelt CDP Valley Stream village 0

12.5

50 Miles

East Patchogue CDP Notes 1. Data obtained from 2000 and 2010 Census. North Amityville CDP 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Percent Change, Hispanic Population (2000-2010) (Top Ten Census Places in Long Island, Hispanic Population [2000] ≥ 1,000) 1 2 3 4 5

Hampton Bays North Amityville Roosevelt East Patchogue Franklin Square

154.7% 127.2% 115.7% 108.5% 92.0%

6 7 8 9 10

Wyandanch Valley Stream village Centereach North Bellport Uniondale

90.6% 87.0% 85.0% 83.7% 82.8%

Black Population

Black Population Total Black Population (2010) 0 - 250 251 - 1,000 1,001 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 24,724 Top 10 Places

Elmont CDP

Brentwood CDP

Hempstead Uniondale CDP village

Central Islip CDP

North Amityville CDP Roosevelt CDP Baldwin CDP Freeport village 0

North Valley Stream CDP 12.5

50 Miles

Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Black Population (2010) (Top Ten Census Places on Long Island) 1 2 3 4 5

Hempstead village Elmont CDP Freeport village Uniondale CDP North Amityville CDP

24,724 14,587 13,226 11,581 10,076

6 7 8 9 10

Roosevelt Brentwood CDP Baldwin CDP Central Islip CDP North Valley Stream CDP

9,873 8,344 7,886 7,740 7,720

Black Population as % of Total Percent Black of Total Population (2010) 0% - 5% 5.1% - 10% 10.1% - 25% 25.1% - 50% 50.1% - 78.3% Top 10 Places

Hempstead village

South Floral Park village

Gordon Heights CDP Uniondale CDP

Wheatley Heights CDP

Wyandanch CDP North Amityville CDP Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Roosevelt CDP

Lakeview CDP 0

North Valley Stream CDP 12.5

50 Miles

Black Population as a Percentage of Total (2010) (Top Ten Census Places on Long Island, Black Population [2010] ≥ 1,000) 1 2 3 4 5

Lakeview CDP Wyandanch CDP Roosevelt CDP North Amityville CDP South Floral Park village

78.3% 62.9% 60.7% 56.4% 55.0%

6 7 8 9 10

Wheatley Heights CDP Gordon Heights CDP Uniondale CDP North Valley Stream Hemstead village

52.7% 48.8% 46.8% 46.4% 45.9%

Change in the Black Population Percent Change of Total Black Population (2000 to 2010) -100% - 0% 0.1% - 25% 25.1% - 75% 75.1% - 100% 100.1% - 200% 200.1% - 1000% Top 10 Places

Valley Stream village

West Hempstead CDP

East Garden City CDP

Shirley CDP

Baldwin South Valley Harbor CDP Stream CDP 0

12.5

Copiague CDP

50 Miles

Mastic Beach CDP Dix Hills CDP North Babylon CDP Notes 1. Data obtained from 2000 and 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Percent Change, Black Population (2000-2010) (Top Ten Census Places in Long Island, Black Population [2010] ≥ 1,000) 1 2 3 4 5

South Valley Stream CDP Baldwin Harbor CDP Valley Stream village Shirley CDP Mastic Beach CDP

204.9% 193.6% 186.6% 151.4% 124.4%

6 7 8 9 10

Mastic Beach CDP East Garden City CDP West Hemstead CDP Copiague CDP Dix Hills CDP

105.9% 102.1% 78.6% 72.6% 69.1%

Asian Population

Composition of the Asian Population Pakistani 6%

All Others 9% Asian Indian 36%

Filipino 12%

Korean 12%

All Others 9% Pakistani 8% Asian Indian 37%

Filipino 11%

Korean 12% Chinese 25%

2000

Chinese 23%

2010

Population TotalAsian Asian Population, 2010 Total Asian Population (2010) 0 - 100 101 - 500 501 - 1,000 1,001 - 2,800 2,801 - 8,139 Top 10 Places

North New Hyde Park CDP

Hicksville CDP

Jericho CDP Syosset CDP

Dix Hills CDP Plainview CDP Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Levittown CDP East Meadow CDP Elmont CDP 0

12.5

Valley Stream village 25

50 Miles

Total Asian Population (2010) (Top Ten Places in Long Island) 1 2 3 4 5

Hicksville CDP East Meadow CDP North New Hyde Park CDP Valley Stream village Syosset CDP

8,139 4,400 4,329 4,237 4,162

6 7 8 9 10

Elmont CDP Jericho CDP Dix Hills CDP Levittown CDP Plainview CDP

3,609 3,442 2,990 2,937 2,799

Asian Population as % of Total Asian Population as a Percent of Total (2010) 0% - 2% 2.1% - 4% 4.1% - 6% 6.1% - 10% 10.1% - 24% 24.1% - 43.2% Top 10 Places

Albertson CDP Searingtown CDP

North Hills Manhasset University Hills CDP Gardens CDP village

Herricks CDP New Hyde Park village 0

12.5

North New Hyde Park CDP 25

Garden City Park CDP 50 Miles

Jericho CDP Notes 1. Data obtained from 2010 Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place geography.

Asian Population as Percentage of Total Population (2010) (Top Ten Census Places in Long Island, Asian Population [2010] ≥ 1,000) 1 2 3 4 5

Herricks CDP Manhasset Hills CDP Searingtown CDP Garden City Park CDP University Gardens CDP

43.2% 39.3% 38.8% 33.0% 29.5%

6 7 8 9 10

North New Hyde Park CDP New Hyde Park village Jericho CDP North Hills village Albertson CDP

29.1% 26.0% 25.4% 25.3% 24.2%

Change in the Asian Population Percent Change of Total Asian Population (2000 to 2010) -100% - 0% 0.1% - 25% 25.1% - 50% 50.1% - 100% 100.1% - 250% 250.1% - 2191.7% Top 10 Places

New Hyde Park village

North New Hyde Park Jericho CDP CDP

Franklin Square CDP Valley Stream village 0

12.5

Syosset CDP

Plainview CDP

Hicksville CDP Notes 1. Data obtained from 2000 and 2010 Census. Levittown CDP 2. White regions are either not Census Places East Meadow CDP or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2010 Census Place 50 Miles geography.

Percent Change in Total Asian Population (2000-2010) (Top Ten Census Places in Long Island, Asian Population [2000] ≥ 1000) 1 2 3 4 5

Jericho CDP Plainview CDP Hicksville CDP North New Hyde Park CDP New Hyde Park village

148.2% 129.6% 119.1% 101.2% 98.8%

6 7 8 9 10

Levittown CDP Franklin Square CDP Syosset CDP East Meadow CDP Valley Stream village

96.7% 90.0% 77.6% 76.5% 71.6%

Findings Population Age (18-34) Race and Ethnicity Income

Median Household Income Median Household Income (2005/2009) 34,577 - 75,000 75,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 125,000 125,001 - 175,000 175,001 - 250,001 Top 10 Place

East Hills Kings Point Flower Hill

Lloyd Harbor

Cold Spring Harbor

Notes 1. Data obtained from 2000 Decadal Census and 2005/2009 ACS Census. 2. White regions are either not Census Places or there is no data available. 3. Data plotted using 2000 Census Place geography.

Dix Hills

Garden City 0

Searingtown

Old Westbury Woodbury

40 Miles

Median Household Income (2005/2009) (Top Ten Places in Long Island with ≥ 1,000 households [2005/2009]) 1 2 3 4 5

Lloyd Harbor village Old Westbury village East Hills village Flower Hill village Kings Point village

$221,667 $205,278 $198,750 $188,482 $144,000

6 7 8 9 10

Dix Hills Woodbury Garden City village Cold Spring Harbor Searingtown

$139,280 $136,389 $135,313 $134,659 $132,353

Change in Median Household Income Percent Change in Median Household Income (2005/2009) -32% - 0% 1% - 20% 21% - 40% 41% - 60% 61% - 155% Top 10 Places

Calverton

Port Jefferson Locust Valley

Flower Hill

Montauk Northwest Harbor Noyack Flanders East Moriches

Cedarhurst 0

20 Miles

Percent Change in Median Household Income (2000-2005/2009) (Top Ten Places in Long Island with >1,000 households [2000 and 2005/2009]) 1 2 3 4 5

Northwest Harbor Montauk Port Jefferson village Noyack Flanders

111.2% 70.1% 59.2% 58.0% 57.6%

6 7 8 9 10

Cedarhurst village Flower Hill village Calverton East Moriches Locust Valley

55.6% 54.5% 54.4% 53.9% 52.7%

Discussion: Diverse Suburbs, Diverse Youth Long Island is becoming more diverse. Between 2000 and 2010 • Hispanic population has increased 57 percent • Asian population increased by 61 percent • Black population grew 10 percent • White population fell 7 percent During the same period, Long Island’s 18-34 year old population remained nearly stable, declining by only 0.2%. They remain about 20 percent of the population. • 18-34 Hispanics surged 44 percent • 18-34 Asians surged 61 percent • 18-34 Blacks grew slightly at 13 percent • 18-34 Whites fell by 16 percent

Long Island remains segregated. The Hispanic, Black, and Asian population remains concentrated in particular communities.

Discussion: Income Disparity Income has increased overall on Long Island (~30 percent), but increase not uniform across island.

Highest incomes in Northern Nassau County

Largest increases in Eastern Suffolk Counties

This work provides direction for understanding the changing face of Long Island. It demonstrates that there is diversity (i.e., race and income) which has implications for sustainability on Long Island

Implications for Sustainability • Social – Structure, equity issues, education

• Environmental – Land use, food, energy, transportation

• Economic – Jobs, housing, income

Further Ongoing Research (Spring 2012) Interested in distribution of housing, labor force, and education (by race and young people) and children Demographic profiles of 27 communities