Guyana: Review of Fiscal Performance in 2022, the 2023 Budgetary Targets, and the Fiscal Profile for 2024-2026 Keith Dublin 1 The main objective of this note is to conduct an analysis of the budgetary targets for 2023 and of the
budgetary profile for the medium-term (2024-2026) as set out in the Government’s 2023 budget documents. To provide context for this analysis, the note begins with a review of Guyana’s fiscal
performance in 2022, compared to the budgetary targets that were set out for the year. A review of the
fiscal performance in 2022 provides a useful perspective for analyzing the 2023 budget targets due to the fact that 2022 was the year in which the Government made an initial attempt to implement a
comprehensive capital expenditure program largely funded by oil revenues and aimed at transforming the structure of the economy.
1. The 2022 Fiscal Outturn Guyana’s fiscal performance in 2022 deviated significantly from the 2022 budgetary targets due to a
number of unprogrammed developments. While total revenues were broadly consistent with the budget targets, despite a marked shortfall in value-added and excise taxes, total expenditures were 12 percent
higher than budgeted, with the result that the overall deficit rose to $155.6 billion, which was $67.9 billion
in excess of the budgetary projections, and equivalent to 5.6 percent of GDP (Table I). This compares with
a budgetary target of 4.8 percent of GDP. Revenues
Revenue receipts totaled $429.5 billion, including withdrawals from the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) and inflows from carbon credits and the GRIF, a program administered by the World Bank that finances
activities identified under the Government of Guyana's Low Carbon Development Strategy. These receipts
were broadly consistent with the budgeted total of $432 billion. The shortfall in receipts from excise taxes, due to the lowering of rates on petroleum products in March 2022, was more than offset by higher
collections of corporate and personal income taxes, both of which benefitted from the enhanced efforts on the part of the Guyana Revenue Authority. Expenditures Current expenditures exceeded the budgeted provisions by 7.4 percent and were the result of
developments in two areas—outlays on goods and services and transfers to the public sector (public
enterprises and local organizations). Given the average rate of inflation of 7.6 percent in 2022, the budget allocation of $93.1 billion for ‘other goods and services’ proved to be inadequate, and revised estimates indicate that these expenditures totaled $109.7 billion.
The higher than budgeted transfers to the public sector (public enterprises and local organizations) were attributable to financial support provided to the Guyana Oil Company, the Guyana Power and Light (GPL),
1
Michael DaCosta and Sherwyn provided comments on the draft versions of this note.