November 5, 2025
www.gfb.org
Vol. 7 No. 22
CHINA AGREES TO BUY 87 MILLION METRIC TONS OF U.S. SOYBEANS Information from AFBF Nov. 3 Market Intel After months of negotiations with the Chinese, President Donald Trump has announced a deal on economic and trade relations with China which includes reduction in Chinese tariffs on a variety of U.S. agricultural products and a commitment to purchase a minimum of 87 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans through 2028. The reduction of Chinese tariffs includes those on U.S.-produced chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The agricultural-related provisions are reminiscent of the 2020 Phase One deal with China that included agricultural purchase commitments that resulted in more than $60 billion in agricultural exports over the first two years of the deal. China’s Historical Agricultural Purchases Before the Phase One agreement, U.S. agricultural exports to China had grown steadily from 2000’s $2.6 billion in 2000 to a then-record $28.7 billion in 2012, mirroring a broader era of export expansion that positioned China as the anchor of U.S. demand growth. During Phase One negotiations, agricultural exports to China fell sharply – as they have this year, reaching a low of $14 billion in 2019. In response to the downturn in the farm economy created by the pullback in agricultural purchases by China, the previous Trump administration provided a total of $23 billion in economic aid delivered directly to farmers and ranchers. During the years covered by the Phase One agreement, U.S. agricultural exports to China surged to $24 billion in 2020, $39 billion in 2021 and peaked at $41 billion in 2022. During the first two years of the Phase One agreement, China purchased more than $60 billion in U.S. agricultural products. While short of the $80 billion goal, these Phase One purchases contributed significantly to an increase in crop cash receipts to a record $283 billion and a record-high U.S. net farm income in 2022 of $182 billion. Despite provisions that allow for consultation if the purchase commitments fall short, China gradually redirected portions of its feed, cotton and livestock imports toward alternative suppliers, and U.S. exports to China slowed, dropping to $32 billion in 2023 and $27 billion in 2024. Yearto-date, through July 2025, U.S. exports to China stand at only $14 billion, a figure expected to -continued on next page