THE HIGH
WATER MARK
THE NEWSLETTER OF THE FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION 2021 - Volume 31, Issue 2
THE HIGH
WATER MARK The Newsletter of the Floodplain Management Association May 2021 - Volume 31, Issue 2 Mission: To promote the common interest in reducing flood losses and to encourage the protection and enhancement of natural floodplain values.
Alex Yescas - Chair HDR Engineering, Inc. 858-712-8283
Darren Suen - Director Central Valley Flood Protection Board 916-574-0609
Jeremy Lancaster - Advisor California Geological Survey 916-445-1825
Mike Nowlan - Vice Chair Wood Rodgers, Inc. 916-326-5277
Millicent Cowley-Crawford - Director Woodard & Curran 415-321-3421
Salomon Miranda - Advisor California DWR 818-549-2347
Connie Perkins - Gutowsky - Secretary California DWR 916-973-3008
Brian Walker - Director City of Roseville 916- 746-1349
Cindy Matthews - Advisor NOAA 916-979-3041
Brent Siemer - Treasurer City of Simi Valley, DPW 805-583-6805
Kyle Gallup - Director Riverside County Flood Control and Water Conservation District 951-955-1265
Eric Simmons - Advisor FEMA Region IX 510-627-7029
Abigail Mayrena - Director Clark County RFCD 702-685-0000 John Moynier - Director David Evans & Associates 714-665-4512 Vince Geronimo - Director Mead and Hunt 916-993-4606 Brian Brown - Director City of West Sacramento 916-617-4559
FMA NEWS
Ann Bechtel - Director CDM Smith 760-710-4663 George Booth - Past Chair Sacramento County 916-874-6484 Kelly Soule - Advisor California DWR 916-574-1205 Jose Lara - Advisor California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) 916-845-8883
Carol Tyau-Beam - Advisor Hawaii DLNR 808-587-0267 Erin Warnock - Advisor Nevada DWR 775-684-2890 Jeanne Ruefer - Advisor HWC INC 775-722-7395 Mary Seits - Executive Director Floodplain Management Association 760-936-3676
CONTENT
3
A Note From The Chair Federal/National News State News Meet The Board What’s Your Flood Factor? Call For Articles Meet the CFM - Jeanne Ruefer Modernizing Reservoir Operation: FMA Board Agency Report NOAA/NWS Karl Mohr was Exemplary
Kleinfelder is a proud sponsor of FMA Kleinfelder’s decades of experience and comprehensive knowledge of the significant risks our communities face allows us to effectively partner with local, state, and federal agencies to reduce the probability of catastrophic flooding.
Natomas Levee
Folsom Dam
4 6 7-8 9 10 11 12 15-17 19 21
Solving the most pressing water-related issues to improve our region’s built and natural environments
We provide a full range of services on dams and levee projects that include environmental and geotechnical engineering and construction materials testing.
• • • • • • •
Vista Narrows
Geotechnical Water Resources Civil Design Environmental Construction Management Information Management Grant Writing Southport Levee Improvement Project
visit us at: www.kleinfelder.com San Vicente Dam
geiconsultants.com
916.631.4500
FMA NEWS
A NOTE FROM THE CHAIR By Alex Yescas Happy Spring FMA Members, I am hoping that you are all doing well and preparing for a busy year. In fact, perhaps we should all be preparing for a busy several years, based on recent news out of Washington, D.C. President Biden introduced a $2 trillion plan in late March to overhaul and upgrade the nation’s infrastructure. Among its goals are to create thousands of miles of rebuilt roads, implement vital repairs to important bridges around the U.S., and eliminate lead pipes from the nation’s water supplies; administration officials hope this will create millions of jobs in the short run and strengthen American competitiveness in the long run. Earlier this year, President Biden reinstated the federal Flood Risk Management Standard, which had required federally funded infrastructure to be built with a higher margin of safety against extreme floods and sea level rise. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, the president is saying that the goal is to create a resilient, innovative economy for the nation’s future. The overall package is being reviewed by lawmakers, but there is plenty of optimism that in the end, this will most likely benefit our flood risk reduction projects. I am hoping that many of the projects that we have planned will be well funded and implemented under this package. Stay tuned.
In other important floodplain news, FEMA has released the rating system RISK RATING 2.0. This system will leverage best practices and latest technology to enable FEMA to deliver rates that are actuarily sound, equitable, easier to understand, and better reflect a property’s flood risk. The new methodology allows FEMA to equitably distribute premiums across all policyholders based on the value of their home and the flood risk of their property. Currently, many policyholders with lower value homes are paying more than they should and policyholders with higher value homes are paying less than they should. The new system will be implemented in phases: • Phase I. New policies beginning October 1, 2021, will be subject to the new rating methodology. Also beginning October 1, existing policyholders eligible for renewal will be able to take advantage of immediate decreases in their premiums. • Phase II. All remaining policies renewing on or after April 1, 2022, will be subject to the new rating methodology. FEMA continues to engage with Congress, its industry partners and state, local, tribal and territorial agencies to ensure clear understanding of these changes.
SAVE THE DATE California Extreme Precipitation Symposium (CEPSYM) Exploring Floods in California’s Central Valley from a Climate Perspective June 22 & 23, 2021 – Virtual Format Floodplain Management Association Annual Conference September 7-10, 2021 - Virtual via the Hubilo Platform
FMA NEWS
5
The 2021 FMA annual CONFERENCE this year will be virtual. The conference was originally planned to take place in-person in Los Angeles, but this site will be saved as the host city for a later date. This year’s conference, scheduled for September 7-10, is being co-chaired by representatives from the Los Angeles area that can still bring their regional perspective on flood mitigation. The virtual conference platform will be the same as used in 2020, Hubilo. The feedback we received from attendees stated that the platform worked out very well. We did make a change to the process for our presenters. The presenters will give live presentations with Q&A following their presentations. This was one of the critical points in the feedback we received and we have happily addressed that point. The conference organizers are accepting ABSTRACTS for presentations through May 31. I highly recommend attending the Emerging Professionals Webinars, which feature very interesting topics, and for those flood management leaders, there is an opportunity to share your wisdom with these professionals. George Booth, our past FMA Chair, presented on a recent webinar to discuss his experience in the flood management field and his career that has spanned 40 years. Enjoy the warmer weather and, if you haven’t already, start those gardens!
FMA NEWS
FEDERAL/NATIONAL NEWS For an Update of the latest disaster declarations visit: CLICK HERE
For information on Flood Insurance Reform – Rates and Refunds CLICK HERE
Advisor Update FEMA Updates for FMA Board: May 2021
• FEMA is modernizing flood insurance rating in an effort called Risk Rating 2.0, or RR2.0. Information is available at NFIP TRANSFORMATION with details distributed April 1, 2021. Updated rates take effect October 1, 2021, for new policyholders and on April 1, 2022, for existing policy renewals. New premiums better account for flood risk and home value, with more expensive buildings costing more to insure. RR2.0 does not impact the minimum purchase requirement nor floodplain management aspects directly. Information on the current rating structure and RR2.0 is online from CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is authorized until the end of the federal fiscal year (September 30, 2021). Discussion on legislative reform for the program has been quiet. • Deanne Criswell is the next FEMA administrator; she previously was the commissioner of the New York City Emergency Management department. • A new REPORT highlights the $1.31 billion in mitigation assistance delivered by FEMA this past year as well as a FACT SHEET to inform stakeholders on the grant processes.
FMA NEWS
• The NFIP is on LINKEDIN! • The administration released an ambitious $2 trillion infrastructure proposal. If signed into law, the package, called the American Jobs Plan, includes funding to upgrade bridges, broadband, buildings, and much more. U.S. infrastructure earned a C- according to ASCE’s report card for 2021. For the first time in 20 years the overall grade moved up, but poor marks reflect the need to upgrade infrastructure in 17 categories. Levees, dams, and stormwater scored a D with estimated $70B, $81B and $8B funding gaps respectively. The most recent ASCE report card for California in 2019 provided similar grades meaning infrastructure is in mediocre condition and requires attention.
STATE NEWS California Q/A: What are the risks of a major earthquake in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta? In the first of two Delta Conveyance Deep Dive episodes on seismic risks in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, Laurence Sanati, head of the DWR Flood Systems Analysis Section, speaks about the potential consequences of a major earthquake in or near the Delta and the measures currently in place to deal with such an event. CLICK HERE
Monitoring Stations in the Feather River Watershed Inform Statewide Water Supply Every year, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) relies on data from monitoring stations strategically located across California to provide information that will aid the decision-making process regarding the flood control and water supply operations of California’s State Water Project (SWP).
7
Castaic Dam Modernization Efforts Move Forward Two key projects are set to begin as part of ongoing modernization work at Castaic Dam in Los Angeles County to reduce risks from a major earthquake. DWR will oversee the installation of new equipment to monitor the dam’s stability and work to strengthen the dam’s intake tower access bridge. CLICK HERE
Hawaii See the latest news stories for Hawaii, including recent postings for Hurricane Preparedness, Tsunami Awareness Month, Risk 2.0 and dam owner guidance at their blog. For the transformed flood information platform from Hawaii visit their exciting weekly blog at HTTPS://WAIHALANA. HAWAII.GOV/
CLICK HERE
State Develops Tool and Recommendations to Support Those Most Vulnerable to Drought With drought conditions returning to California, DWR has finalized a tool and recommendations to support those communities most at risk during drought. CLICK HERE
For archived Wai Halana Newsletters (prior to 2018) – HTTPS://DLNRENG.HAWAII.GOV/ NFIP/WAI-HALANA/
FMA NEWS
STATE NEWS Nevada Nevada Outreach: The Nevada Floodplain Management Program continues to work on virtual outreach campaigns. This includes the recently completed project with Sierra Nevada Journeys in which middle school curriculum was developed to go along with the Flood Fighter Nevada computer game. The lessons will be piloted this fall in Washoe County schools. The program plans release requests for proposals for several more outreach strengthening projects including curriculum to go along with all Nevada major river Story Maps, a nevadafloods. org website update, and a physical flood model revamp. It is expected that in person outreach will begin to resume this fall and preparations will be made to prepare for that. Training: The Nevada Floodplain Management Program will host several a virtual trainings with Starr II in the next three months, thanks to the support of Region IX. The topics will include NFIP Basics, Permitting and Inspecting Floodplain Development, How to Review a No-Rise Analysis, Determining BFE-MSC-LOMAS, Elevation Certificate Basics, How to Review an Elevation Certificate, and Preparing for a CAV. Official training dates will be released soon. The program is assisting with planning Dam Safety Webinars in collaboration with Nevada Dam Safety and Silver Jackets. The kick-off to this series was held via Webex on Wednesday April 21st. This webinar covered Nevada Dam Emergency Action Plans 101 from how to create one to how to exercise it. There will a series of webinars that will discuss different aspects of Dam Safety and Nevada specifics. The webinars will lead up to a final Emergency Action Plan Tabletop Exercise, hopefully during Nevada Flood Awareness Week.
FMA NEWS
MEET THE BOARD
9
Kelly Soulé
Kelly Soulé has been working as an engineer in the water industry within the state of California for the past 25 years. She is a registered professional civil engineer and has her masters’ degree in business administration. She has worked as a consultant, at the county level, and she has now been employed with the California Department of Water Resources for the last 12 years. She has been employed in different roles within the Departments' Division of Flood Management. Her current role as a Supervising Engineer is that of Branch Chief of the Community Assistance and Risk Awareness Branch in the Office of Floodplain Management. Her branch is responsible for communication, education, and outreach to the public, as well as all California communities on floodplain management issues. Her branch is also responsible for administering the National Flood Insurance Program within the state in cooperation with FEMA and Kelly serves as the State’s NFIP Coordinator as well as being an advisor to the board of FMA. On a personal note, Kelly lives in Auburn, CA with her husband and pets. As of fall 2021, she will be an “empty nester” as both of her children will be in college so she is looking forward to traveling more in their RV and resuming several hobbies such as golf and photography that she hasn’t been able to focus on in recent years.
FMA NEWS
WHAT’S YOUR FLOOD FACTOR? Eric Simmons
I’ve said many times in my 16 years with FEMA that risk communication is the hardest part of the job. Now comes First Street Foundation, or FSF, a nonprofit formed to communicate risk to Americans by democratizing hazard mapping and risk data. Last year this newsletter reported on FSF’s analyses and flood scores on FLOOD FACTOR for 142 million properties. This information complements FEMA’s FLOOD MAPPING with future changes based on the rise of ocean levels as well as air and sea surface temperature increases. FSF mapping highlights flood risk outside the Special Flood Hazard Area, the mapped 1% annual chance floodplain on a Flood Insurance Rate Map. A recent release to Flood Factor includes ANNUAL FLOOD DAMAGE expected for residential properties. Communicating flood risk in dollar terms creates another context for homeowners, buyers, and financial markets to understand future losses. For example, FSF found for California the average loss for homes having substantial flood risk is $7,462 per year. Many are getting a good deal on their flood insurance (except - on average - in Fresno, Glenn, Imperial, Lassen, Merced, Modoc, Kings, Tulare, Yolo and Yuba Counties) as shown below. This FSF graphic depicts average flood loss expected versus average insurance premium under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). It’s worth noting the opposite occurs in Nevada where flood insurance may currently be overpriced in all but three counties: Clark, Storey and Washoe.
FMA NEWS
Insurance is the best way to protect against financial losses associated with damage. Recent analyses confirm flood insurance is a good deal for many homeowners. FEMA encourages communication on flood risk and shares Federal datasets with interesting parties. Upcoming releases to the Flood Factor website include historic fluvial flooding from recent disasters, refined model accuracy based on new elevation data for targeted metropolitan areas, adaptation updates, as well as expansion into Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico.
11
CALL FOR ARTICLES! The FMA Newsletter welcomes the input of its members and now our extended family of readership to contribute to the conversation! Keep the great articles coming! We need to hear from all of you. There’s always room for more to join the ranks of published authors. Showcase your programs, projects, tools, policies, regulations or ideas to hundreds of floodplain management professionals throughout the U.S.! Articles must be submitted in Word format to Mary.Seits@Floodplain.org and may contain 2-3 small pictures. Preferred length is less than 850 words.
For more details call (760) 936-3676.
FMA NEWS
MEET THE CFM - JEANNE RUEFER Interviewed and Written by Kayla Kelly-Slatten, JD, CFM* Jeanne Ruefer is no stranger to the floodplain community. As previous FMA Board Chairwoman and a current FMA board member, Ms. Ruefer has shown her commitment to floodplain management in the most prominent of ways. Nevertheless, it is not the titles alone that demonstrate her passion for the field. It is her ability to see opportunity in a world of loss, opportunity that leads to change and inspires floodplain professionals to act. In 1998, the United States fell into a recession, triggered by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Like many economic crises, numerous individuals found themselves fallen on hard times, jobless and unsure of what the future would hold, Ms. Ruefer one of them. Encouraged by her peers, however, she used the loss to shift her focus away from consulting, becoming the State of Nevada’s Floodplain Administrator in April of 1998. Although armed with a Master’s in hydrology and hydrogeology, Ms. Ruefer had little experience in actual floodplain management. So, within a month of securing her role, she was sent to the ASFPM conference, thrown into trainings, and dove headfirst into the floodplain community. Any ordinary individual may have balked at the complexity of floodplain management, but Ms. Ruefer continued to find opportunity in its intricacies, supported by supervisors and newly acquainted colleagues. From state governance to local water resources management, from private industry to federal advising, Jeanne Ruefer shaped her career through the lens of a CFM, even before it became a national standardized accreditation.
FMA NEWS
Within three months of entering her role as a floodplain administrator, Ms. Ruefer became a beta-tester for the ASFPM’s pilot Certified Floodplain Manager program. And when ASFPM officially rolled out its CFM test at the 1999 Portland conference, Jeanne Ruefer became CFM number 34. She continues to maintain her good-standing in the program, recognizing both its institutional and personal significance. To Ms. Ruefer, becoming a CFM was more than just a smart career move. Of course, from a floodplain administrator’s perspective, she believed it would lend her greater authority and credibility in the eyes of the communities she served. More importantly, perhaps, Ms. Ruefer saw the CFM accreditation as a personal accomplishment in the wake of loss. Prior to transitioning to floodplain management, Ms. Ruefer witnessed firsthand the devastation of an atmospheric river and the hope sprung from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). With her home severely damaged by the 1982-83 El Niño event, Ms. Ruefer found a new appreciation for the Federal Emergency Management Agency and its application of the NFIP. In her own words, she grew “a soft-spot for the NFIP.” So, in a small way, obtaining her CFM became a form of repayment to the NFIP, as well as a personal commitment to serve the floodplain community and those individuals suffering loss.
13 Over the years of her service to the floodplain community, Jeanne Ruefer has emphasized the significance of the CFM program as a tool to gain insight into the various intricacies of floodplain management. From public education to financial roadmaps, the CFM accreditation has created a foundation from which Ms. Ruefer builds upon, sparking challenging conversations, ideas for improvements, and a universal baseline of knowledge among colleagues. Thus, when Ms. Ruefer states that the floodplain community is “poised for big changes”, it is more than a hunch. It is a well-informed assertion from a highlyqualified CFM, and the floodplain community would be wise to listen, learn, and act.
FMA NEWS
MODERNIZING RESERVOIR OPERATION: USACE SACRAMENTO BEGINS UPDATE OF 50-YEAR-OLD OROVILLE AND NEW BULLARDS BAR WATER CONTROL MANUALS Joe Forbis, Jenny Fromm, Donna Lee and Nathan Pingel The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sacramento District (SPK) is examining new ways to operate Oroville and New Bullards Bar dams by leveraging the best-available forecast technology as part of updates to the dams’ water control manuals. Oroville lies on the Feather River, and New Bullards Bar lies on the Yuba River in Northern California. SPK developed the water control manuals that prescribe flood operation rules for the dams 50 years ago. USACE’s policy is to review and update water control manuals to ensure that the best use is made of available water resources. In 2020, SPK received a $4-million appropriation, launching the water control manual updates. The water control manual updates present the opportunity for SPK to develop flood operation alternatives that are based on the current state of the flood control system and incorporate sustainability and resiliency to changing conditions. Sean Smith, Principal Hydrologic and Hydraulic Engineer, HQUSACE, said, “Funding for the water control manual updates allows the Corps to work collaboratively with stakeholders to ensure the projects continue to meet the current and future needs of the communities they serve.”
FMA NEWS
Map of the Yuba-Feather system in Northern California. Oroville and New Bullards Bar are operated as a system to avoid exceeding the objective flow of 300,000 cfs at the confluence of the Yuba and Feather Rivers near Marysville and Yuba City.
15
Goals for the Manual Updates: Efficient Use of Reservoir Storage in line with USACE Water Control Management Mission Oroville and New Bullards Bar are owned and operated by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and Yuba Water Agency (YWA), respectively. Each was built for multi-purpose functions including flood control, water supply, power generation, recreation, and conservation. Oroville and New Bullards Bar are operated as a system for flood control, considering the objective flow at the Yuba-Feather River confluence and downstream. The water control manuals developed by SPK contain data and information about the facilities and watersheds and prescribe flood operation for the dams. SPK developed the water control manuals at the time of construction. The Oroville and New Bullards Bar water control manuals were published in 1970 and 1972, respectively. Since then, physical changes to the facilities have occurred or are planned, including recovery of the flood control outlet spillway and armoring of the emergency spillway at Oroville Dam after the 2017 incident when the spillways were damaged, and the addition of a secondary spillway at New Bullards Bar Dam, which is in design and will increase the release capability of the dam at lower reservoir pool elevations. Furthermore, the existing water control manuals consider storage available at Marysville Reservoir, which was never built. In updating the flood operation rules within the water control manuals, SPK’s goal is to prescribe efficient operation that continues to meet USACE’s water control management mission, as described in Engineer Regulation 1110-2-240: • Operate in accordance with authorized purposes and applicable laws.
• Maintain the structural and operational integrity of the project. • Avoid risk to public health and safety, life, and property. • Strike a balance among the use of water storage for multiple authorized purposes. Current Reservoir Operation Lacks Flexibility to Leverage Forecasts Currently, the amount of space in Oroville and New Bullards Bar reservoirs allocated for flood control varies seasonally, based on established precipitation and runoff patterns. During the summer, the reservoirs are allowed maximum storage for water supply and environmental purposes. In the fall they are drawn down gradually, as necessary to provide maximum flood space for the winter when flood risk is highest. In the spring, the reservoirs are gradually refilled. In addition, at Lake Oroville, the flood storage required depends on ground saturation represented by a “wetness index.” When flood space is encroached at the reservoirs, the water control manuals dictate that operators must evacuate flood space as quickly as possible without exceeding objective flows downstream or maximum rates of change in release magnitude. Although effective, the current operation rules lack flexibility to fully leverage forecasts in determining the use of flood storage space and the magnitude of releases. They also account for storage at Marysville Reservoir that is not available. Opportunity for Modernization: Use of Current Forecast Technology Advancement of forecast skill over the past 50 years presents the opportunity to explicitly incorporate probabilistic inflow forecasts into reservoir operation rules. For example, if the forecast shows a large event approaching, continues on next page FMA NEWS
MODERNIZING RESERVOIR OPERATION: USACE SACRAMENTO BEGINS UPDATE OF 50-YEAR-OLD OROVILLE AND NEW BULLARDS BAR WATER CONTROL MANUALS
CONTINUED reservoir releases can be made gradually in advance of peak inflow to more reliably and optimally attenuate peak outflow downstream, yielding greater flood control benefits. Conversely, in the spring, if no storms are forecast, runoff can be safely stored, yielding additional water supply reliability benefits. “The water control manuals from the ‘70s were based on hydrologic conditions and the state of technology at that time,” Greg Kukas, SPK Hydrology and Hydraulics Branch Chief, said. “We can now use forecast technology to make safe reservoir decisions long before water hits the ground.” SPK’s 2019 update of the Folsom Dam water control manual demonstrated this capability. SPK developed forecast-based operation rules for Folsom Dam that consider 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day forecast inflow volume to determine use of variable flood space and magnitude of releases. The Folsom water control manual update was the first water control manual to explicitly incorporate inflow forecasts into reservoir operation rules. A Folsom-like, forecast-based approach may be formulated for Oroville and New Bullards Bar. The operation would determine the following: Given the current storage and forecasted inflow, how much does the reservoir need to be evacuated below the maximum level, and at what rate, to meet desired objectives given estimated likelihoods of occurrence? Other alternative strategies incorporating use of forecasts may also be developed. Alternative development will require an iterative approach, where potential environmental effects and stakeholder concerns are identified, and the alternatives are tested and refined to yield performance within constraints. The operational flexibility provided by FIRO can minimize tradeoffs between optimal flood operation and operation for other authorized purposes.
FMA NEWS
Collaborative Partnership: The YubaFeather Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operation Program SPK has partnered with the Yuba-Feather ForecastInformed Reservoir Operation (FIRO) Program for the Oroville and New Bullards Bar water control manual updates. The FIRO Program is a multiagency effort including participation by SPK, the USACE Engineer Research and Development Center, the National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center, DWR, YWA, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, and others. Similar to the “forecast-based operation” implemented at Folsom Dam, FIRO is “a reservoiroperations strategy that better informs decisions to retain or release water by integrating additional flexibility in operation policies and rules with enhanced monitoring and improved weather and hydrological forecasts,” as defined by the American Meteorological Society (2021). The goals of the FIRO Program are closely related to the water control manual updates. The FIRO Program seeks to demonstrate the viability of FIRO at Oroville and New Bullards Bar dams, conduct research for future applications of FIRO, and identify investment opportunities over time to enhance FIRO. The FIRO Program includes research on atmospheric rivers, which generally fuel California’s largest storms (Dettinger et al. 2011). This parallel effort presents the opportunity for close collaboration with the water control manual updates, marrying research and development with operations to develop the most effective solution for yielding public benefits.
17
Initial Project Accomplishments: CrossAgency, Cross-Program Planning
Pending additional funding, the end products of the effort will include:
During the first year of the water control manual updates, SPK has laid the foundation for a successful project. SPK has focused on coordinating with the dam owners, DWR and YWA, and the FIRO Program. SPK has developed several management plans that reflect this coordination on project goals and objectives, analysis tasks, and schedules. SPK has also begun reviewing existing studies to leverage analyses already done for the Yuba-Feather watershed and filling information gaps. SPK is currently establishing flood risk management performance baselines resulting from existing operations and historical conditions.
• A comprehensive engineering report describing alternative development and performance for each dam. • NEPA documentation for each dam. • An updated water control manual for each dam that includes selected alternatives, reflects current data and information, and meets current USACE guidance. • An updated Sacramento River Basin Master Manual of Reservoir Regulation (1959), to which the water control manuals are an appendix, that reflects current data and information and meets current USACE guidance. SPK plans to complete both water control manual updates by the end of 2024 in time for planned completion of New Bullards Bar secondary spillway construction.
In addition, SPK is planning its approach to environmental compliance. This includes compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and other regulations as applicable. Path Forward: Collaborative Alternative Development In 2021 and 2022, SPK will expand stakeholder outreach and begin to develop new alternative sets of release rules, with input from the FIRO Program analysis. Key items that will be addressed are: • What are the flood risk management objectives for each dam? • How should performance against flood risk management objectives be measured? • Do operation alternatives provide resilience to climate change? • Besides enhancing flood control benefits, can operation alternatives enhance water supply reliability or other benefits? • What potential environmental effects are of concern?
References
American Meteorological Society (2021). “Glossary of Meteorology.” https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Forecastinformed_reservoir_operations. Accessed Feb. 2021. Dettinger, M. D., Ralph, F. M., Das, T., Neiman, P. J., & Cayan, D. R. (2011). Atmospheric rivers, floods and the water resources of California. Water, 3(2), 445-478.
Authors
Joe Forbis: Chief, Water Management Section, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District Jenny Fromm: Lead Water Manager, Water Management Section, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District Donna Lee: Senior Project Manager, HDR Engineering, Inc. Nathan Pingel: Principal Hydrologic Engineer, HDR Engineering, Inc.
FMA NEWS
FMA BOARD AGENCY REPORT NOAA/NWS
Alan Haynes, Hydrologist in Charge, California Nevada River Forecast Center Super Dry Water Year With Low Runoff Expected Precipitation since the beginning of the Water Year (October 1st, 2020) has been very low over California and Nevada, with most areas receiving less than 50% of average (see Fig. 1). Precipitation deficits over the main water supply regions of Northern California, such as the coastal mountains, around Lake Shasta and the Northern Sierra, measure in the tens of inches, with some areas seeing departures greater than 40 inches for the water year so far.
Figure 1. The left panel shows the average water-year precipitation (since Oct. 1, 2020) to date (as of May 3rd, 2021). The middle panel shows observed water-year precipitation to date and the right panel shows the departure from average water-year precipitation to date.
The low amounts of precipitation this year also resulted in a low snowpack, which is expected to mostly melt off before June, with much of the runoff soaking into parched soils.
FMA NEWS
Cumulative two-year runoff on the four rivers that comprise the Sacramento River Index (Sacramento, Feather, Yuba and American Rivers) is forecast to be near record low levels, second only to the 1976-1977 water years (see figure 2). By the end of the 2021 Water Year, the twoyear projected flow accumulation is forecast to be around 15.9-17.0 MAF, ranking WY2020-2021 drier than the WY2014-2015 accumulated flow. The average annual volume of water is 18.2 MAF; so essentially, we’ve lost over an entire year of runoff.
19
Figure 2.
New Service Coordination Hydrologist Selected Brett Whitin has been selected as the new Service Coordination Hydrologist (SCH) at the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). His selection leaves a Senior Hydrologist vacancy at the CNRFC. The SCH is the primary external liaison for the CNRFC, serving as part of the management team.
Brett has a great background, having worked for the USACE Sacramento District over a decade ago. He came to the office conference room as a USACE employee attending early Yuba-Feather F-CO meetings. He worked for about three years as a hydrologist at the Southeast River Forecast Center. Upon arriving at the CNRFC in 2010, Brett quickly immersed himself in the new Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), which forms the National Weather Service framework for hydrologic analysis and modeling. Brett quickly became the office leader, if not one of the national leaders, in operationalizing improvements to the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS), a probabilistic hydrologic forecast service which accounts for short-term weather forecasts up for up to two weeks lead time, and which uses climatology for periods beyond two weeks out to one year lead time. HEFS is quickly becoming one of the major tools for Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO). Brett has much depth and experience with hydrologic modeling and HEFS, and he interacts very well CNRFC partners and users, as well as CNRFC and CA Department of Water Resources staff. He holds both BS and MS degrees in Civil Engineering from Clemson University.
FMA NEWS
KARL MOHR WAS EXEMPLARY
Michael Nowlan
The Karl Mohr Distinguished Service Award for National Activities recognizes individuals who, through their long term efforts, have clearly influenced the realm of national floodplain management policies or activities, such as education, government, research, litigation, outreach, implementation or other actions. If you search online for Karl Mohr you will need to add some additional identifiers to his name, as there are numerous Karls, even one in Davis currently working on land use issues. It goes to show how big of a world we live in when there are prominent individuals with the same name. I am now even more motivated to write about the namesakes of our FMA awards, to preserve the history of our association and the people who have made it great. Karl Mohr made his career in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as a project officer dealing with a myriad of often thorny floodplain mapping issues associated with the National Flood Insurance Program. Some people think that floodplain issues are generally boring, and that may stem from the technical details of these issues, but when money and property values are involved, discussions can get quite “energetic”. FEMA officials know this truth better than most, and Karl was right in the thick of it, on the front lines, during his tenure with FEMA. Notably, Karl had the pleasure of dealing with ten Southern California cities in the 1990s when they found out FEMA was going to map them into the high-risk floodplain. The cover story of the Los Angeles Times in January 1995 reported the story with the headline titled “Citing risk of a devastating flood, the federal government wants Southeast residents to get costly and unpopular
FMA NEWS
insurance against…HIGH WATER”. And who do you think willfully bore the brunt of these cities’ protests? Karl Mohr. I can feel for Karl. The floodplain management profession often involves being the bearer of unpleasant news. Couple that with individuals who distrust government and believe they will have to pay money for a flood that “hasn’t happened yet.” It’s a recipe for political disaster. One local Councilman at the time actually called it a “fund-raising scam for the federal government”. Talk about walking into the lions’ den! Karl was a father of nine children which gave him the fortitude to stand strong in the face of public adversity for the need of sound floodplain management. He is widely known for his leadership in the use of LiDAR in FEMA mapping, working on the Airborne and Light Detection and Ranging Systems section of FEMA 37 Appendix 4B. For those readers who are younger, FEMA 37 was THE document to have on your desk as a floodplain manager and mapping consultant. Karl also was instrumental in dealing with national flood mapping issues, being involved in the Technical Mapping Advisory Council and the production of documents on alluvial fan flooding guidance and the flood hazard mapping modernization plan. Karl’s passing was a tragedy having happened shortly after retiring from FEMA, but the bottom line is that Karl was in it for the long haul and clearly did not back down from addressing extremely important issues related to developing accurate flood hazard mapping. Tough love is tough for both the giver and the receiver, but it is absolutely necessary to protect our communities and neighbors before catastrophe strikes. As members of FMA, we should all relate to Karl and applaud those like him who stand in the breach.
21
THERE IS A RIGHT WAY TO DO THINGS. AND THERE IS A NEW WAY TO DO THINGS.
AND SOMETIMES THEY’RE EXACTLY THE
SAME THING.
WWW.WOODRODGERS.COM FMA NEWS
Leading with Science® Tetra Tech is pleased to be ranked #1 in Water by Engineering News-Record for 16 years in a row. We are proud to be home to leading technical experts in every sector and to use that expertise throughout the project life cycle. Our commitment to safety is ingrained in our culture and at the forefront of every project.
Have questions or comments about this month's articles? Participate in the discussion on the FMA facebook page! FMA NEWS
23
FMA NEWS
THE HIGH
WATER MARK The Newsletter of the Floodplain Management Association