AgriFacts July 2024
Market Report Grain market report The market leading up to the 2024 harvest has been volatile due to a challenging growing season. Prices have generally declined, influenced by harvest pressures in the northern hemisphere and an upward revision of global wheat estimates by the USDA.
The UK wheat market encounters difficulties due to reduced demand, driven by competitive barley and imported maize prices. Additionally, growing US stocks and aggressive Russian wheat sales add complexity, especially considering the likelihood of lower EU production and potential quality concerns. Predicting the outcome isn’t straightforward1. Farmers must navigate these challenges to remain competitive globally. Recent weeks have seen progress in the UK Winter Barley, benefiting from improved weather conditions. Yields vary but generally align with the 5-year average level, which may be a relief to some. Quality remains mixed, and domestic barley demand has slowed down, with suppliers not wanting to sell just yet. In the malting market, we await harvest progress and quality results. Some are looking promising but there is a way to go yet. Rapeseed markets have been volatile, influenced by soybean and energy markets amongst other things.
Some harvesting has taken place in the UK, again with very average yields. How much OSR (oilseed rape) will be sown for next harvest? Some farmers may consider companion crops for sustainable farming initiatives. As grain harvests commence, the focus is, without doubt, on timely storage - getting grain harvested and into the shed before marketing as EU predictions for yields are reduced due to the extreme weather which has been witnessed in recent months. Markets will continue to be influenced by what is going on across the world, USDA recently reported that US winter wheat harvest was 71% complete as at week ending 14 July. This is well ahead of the five-year average of 62%, and up from 53% last year. Russian agricultural consultancy firm IKAR increased its estimate for the country’s wheat crop recently, now at 83.2Mt from 82.0 Mt previously. However, recent hot weather in eastern Ukraine and southwest Russia is a watchpoint for the country’s maize crop development. . https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-market-outlook
1
July 2024 (Midlands) ex farm
Feed Wheat
£185/t
Red Diesel
Fertiliser
70ppl
AN
£333/t
Feed Barley
OSR
£142/t
£385/t
Straw
£90/t big bale wheat
Gran Urea
£350/t
TSP
£449/t
Milk
40ppl
Hay
Finished Steers
487.3 p/kg
Finished Lambs
£65/t big bale
660.1 p/kg
MOP
Finished pigs
£365/t
209.28 p/kg
Prices taken from Farmers Weekly & AHDB
Grain market prices