Agrifacts | March 2024 Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters
| Grain Market Report The grain markets have been fairly flat recently to say the least, and the weather has certainly been putting a dampener on things. The monthly USDA report has recently been released, which had no big surprises to shock the market into life. Brazils equivalent to the USDA report has lowered both soybean production from 155mmt to 146.9mmt and corn from 124mmt to 112.8mmt, due to the hot, dry conditions they have had, is there a story developing here? I’m not sure that any of us are surprised by the fact that French Spring Barley planting is currently only at 28%, at this time last year it was at 96%, could this have any impact on the market going forward? So with the market off the bottom again – probably to the tune of £7.00 on old crop futures, does this mean that we’ve seen the bottom? I sincerely hope that we have, but though I’d love to be wrong, I’m not sure that it’s the start of a £50 rally either. If you look at other stories in an attempt to create some balance, there are certainly some negatives kicking around too……. •
A third cancellation of US wheat by China – cancellations have now reached 504,000 tonnes.
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Russian wheat is getting cheaper – estimated to be as low as August 2020, private estimates suggest that this has traded under $200 FOB basis
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Demand is still sparse. The much anticipated Egyptian tender, which followed the Algerian tender was called off – the Egyptians thought it was too expensive and are betting on it coming lower.
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UK wise - the pound is still strong, a little over 85 pence against the euro. This makes old crop hard to export and imported wheat/corn cheaper to bring in.
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German Milling Wheat now competes into the UK and at least two mills are now suggesting this as a preference to UK
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Malting Barley buyers have completely disappeared leaving those holding quality barley nervously trying to discover markets.
For me – if we’re lucky enough to see this little rise in the base values continue, I think we should see it as an opportunity to keep trading. Old crop in particular. The two upcoming reports that could move the dial further could be and what bulls could point to are •
The AHDB Early Bird Report, which they’re going to have another stab at shortly. Essentially we’re looking to see how bad is bad.
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The US quarterly stock report and prospective plantings report which will be released on 28 March. This can, and has changed the narrative previously.
For us to move significantly higher – we’re going to need something more fundamental. A quick note on rapeseed which has had a couple of strong days recently – climbing from £325/t back over £350/t again in – the last little jump being helped by the CONAB report. In the past we’ve seen in move through this marker before losing ground back to £325 again. The recent USDA numbers don’t suggest a problem – but rapeseed can be like a firework as we’ve seen in the past. I’ve learnt through bitter experience though that you can also get burnt by this market also. If you a long holder of rapeseed, keep a very close eye on it! On good days, let’s keep quietly going! Alice Kilham, Openfield