Agrifacts June 2023

Agrifacts | June 2023 Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters | Grain Market Report Wheat Global wheat prices have strengthened slightly from recent lows as weather markets start to develop in key crop growing areas. Markets have been testing previous resistance levels but are struggling to break through them, instead selling back down in the absence of any sustained support. UK markets remain quiet with old crop homes filling up and an export market which is time limited against large impending EU crops. LIFFE continues to track global markets higher with £203 the next overhead resistance level, but substantial demand is needed to give this market a real kick. We remain uncompetitive on new crop exports, and domestic consumers continue to chip away at nearby cover against a UK farmer who is slowly beginning to release stocks ahead of potential harvest pressure. Malting Barley Malting barley markets have rallied strongly again recently, as prolonged dry weather in Denmark in particular spooks the market. Local commentators are talking of yield losses up to 20% and as a result co-ops look to buy back contracts they had sold on the FOB market. This buying interest is falling on deaf ears however, as farmers are reluctant to sell malting barley across the Continent, a common theme for all commodities. It now depends on the harvest in other northern EU origins, as if French and UK crops perform then the very localised Scandinavian issue becomes less significant. The French have begun harvesting their excellent looking barley crop, and in the UK crops are progressing at pace following the recent hot/dry weather. It looks like most spring crops will benefit from some showers over the next few weeks as well. Feed Barley Old crop feed barley markets continue to trade on very thin volumes. Both supply and demand is difficult to come across as the season draws to a close and the market is trading without any real direction. New crop feed markets are similarly slow. The farmer is still noticeably absent from the table, and volumes getting offered to the market are extremely scarce. As a result, the presence of some consumer interest (albeit also in limited volume) has helped to squeeze barley markets slightly higher relative to wheat. Export interest is nowhere to be found as we are uncompetitive into Spain vs Black Sea for harvest, despite the market pricing at a large discount vs domestic values in the later positions. Rapeseed As expected the Federal Reserve held US interest rates unchanged after 10 consecutive hikes. However, they did mention the possibility of several more increases before the end of the calendar year. The recent bearish USDA report was essentially dismissed on everyone’s return and as expected the trade’s attention returned to weather developments. Energy markets fell back from recent highs on renewed concerns over global demand, China was rumoured to be selling oil rather than buying it. Veg oils traded off the highs we made recently. Palm production for May came in at 1.51mln t vs expectations of 1.45mln t. Despite any price rise the market lacked any significant farmer selling as we head into the final few weeks of the season. The firmer Euro/Dollar added pressure whilst the trade is mindful to watch any weather events in the upcoming weeks. Seed Winter Wheat Champion so far looks to be a stand-out variety for cleanliness, which is reflected the AHDB recommended list Septoria score of 8.1 and very high untreated yields. ADM has a great autumn portfolio with a variety of options to suit all situations on farm. Winter barley, Tardis is looking to be an excellent choice, particularly on heavier sites, with its excellent standing power. Tardis from KWS is the only variety on the list to have a rating of 8 for resistance to lodging both with and without PGR. Our oilseed rape portfolio consists of some of the most vigorous varieties in the marketplace, to give the crop the best chance of getting away from the flea beetle in the autumn. LG Aviron and DK Excited are also supported by an establishment scheme to give extra peace of mind. When thinking about OSR this year, why not take a look at our companion crop mixtures? They are great for helping to aid establishment by deterring flea beetle and improving soil health. Our mixes include fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover: Berseem clover has nitrogen-fixing properties and fast growth and establishment. Fenugreek deters flea beetle due to its natural odour, protecting the OSR plants. Buckwheat provides a dense canopy over the OSR crop and is an amazing weed suppressor. Please contact our seed team for any enquiries. Freddie Humfrey Head of Grain Trading, ADM Agriculture Ltd