WALES MARKET UPDATE
£336 £1.17bn 101
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Bank of England, HMRC, ONS
HOLDING FIRM
Despite wider economic headwinds, buyers remain active and transactions are holding firm, with house prices ahead of a year ago. It remains a buyers’ market, with purchasers increasingly selective and price conscious.
A MIXED ECONOMIC PICTURE
The UK economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.6% in Q1, supported by a resilient services sector, though the conflict in Iran, which began in late February, had not yet fed through into the data. Consensus forecasts for 2026 have since been revised up to 1.0% growth, from 0.6% previously¹. Inflation also eased more than expected in April, falling to 2.8%, its lowest level since March 2025². Nonetheless, ongoing uncertainty means the Bank of England is expected to hold the base rate at 3.75% later in June. The longer-term impact of events in the Middle East on inflation, the cost of living and mortgage rates remains unclear, and uncertainty looks set to persist throughout the year.
LENDER COMPETITION
Competition among lenders appears to be intensifying once again, with providers continuing to adjust pricing. Swap rates, which underpin fixed-rate mortgage pricing, remain well below their 2023 highs and are broadly in line with 2024 levels, suggesting only a partial reversal of the affordability gains made over the past two years. Mortgage choice has climbed back above 7,000 products for the first time in three months³. Mortgage rates have also eased, the average five-year fixed rate fell to 4.80% at the end of May, down from 4.98% in April, while the two-year rate dropped to 4.92% from 5.14% over the same period².
MOVERS PRESSING AHEAD
Buyers and sellers are mostly adapting to change and continuing to progress with their transactions. Transactions
reached 101,030 in April 2026, down 3% on March but 53% higher year-on-year. This largely reflects the weakness of a year ago when many buyers had already rushed to complete purchases ahead of the Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold changes, leaving April 2025 particularly quiet4 The RICS survey points to a broadly flat outlook, with a net balance of -6% of respondents expecting sales volumes to pick up over the year ahead. Homebuyers are continuing to make their move when the right opportunity presents itself. Mortgage approvals, an indicator of future demand, totalled 65,945 in April, broadly in line with the five-year April average². Meanwhile, the number of homes available to buy has risen across all UK regions compared to a year ago, shifting the balance in favour of buyers and making realistic pricing from sellers more important than ever. In Wales, the number of available homes for sale is 7% higher than this time last year5
PRICES HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO
Annual house price growth slowed to 1.7% in May, down from 3.0% in April, with prices softening 0.6% month-onmonth, the first monthly decline of the year6 . Against a backdrop of uncertainty driven by developments in the Middle East, rising energy prices and higher market interest rates, some loss of momentum was to be expected. In Wales, the prime markets of Newport and Barry are currently the best performing.
Overall low single-digit price growth is expected throughout 20267. As ever, there will be scope for regional and localised variation, driven by where buyers have more room to absorb higher borrowing.
£543,000
£731,896 -1%
£384
£585,000
£771,915 -0.5%
£384
£489,000
£635,051 -0.3%
£336
£725,000
£959,234 -4.6%
£467
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£928,000
£1,303,098 -4.5%
£567
£423,000
£567,083 -0.3%
£304
£517,000
£690,407 +0.3%
£356
£533,000 £696,644 -1.3%
£340
£803,000
£1,091,797 -2.5%
£531
£1,510,000
£2,385,107 -7.3%
£1,169
£340,000
£395,486 -2.7%
£243
£510,000
£645,361 -5.9%
£318
WALES PREMIUM MARKET
£424,000 £591,768 +3.5%
£302
£340,000
£389,801 -14.7%
£230
£470,000
£602,365 -5.1%
£320
£716,000
£952,189 +8.4%
£394
£600,000
£765,608 -1%
£390
£480,000 £597,945 +8.6%
£299
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
WALES PREMIUM MARKET
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
WALES MAINSTREAM MARKET
WALES
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£207, 641
£489, 000
£635, 051
W A L E S
£208, 492
£390, 000
£493, 423
£140, 257
£285, 000
£373, 853
£158, 423
£327, 000
£415, 680
£327, 241
£664, 000
£840, 623
£214, 154
£500, 000
£645, 398