SEP TEMBER 2026
£795,000
£1,139,697
-5.8%
£624
£43.8bn
17,084
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (JULY)
56,053
-10.3%
-14.9%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (JULY)
96,710
-4.0%
-1.1%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (JULY)
£25.9bn
-1.1%
5.5%
52,772
7.4%
1.9%
210,751
-
3.2%
NEW HOMES BUILT (Q226) NEW HOMES BUILT (ANNUAL)
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Bank of England, HMRC, ONS
T H E H O U S I N G M A R K E T ’ S P O S T- S U M M E R R E S TA R T
The UK housing market remains resilient despite pressure from geopolitical events abroad. The Iran war has pushed up energy costs and, with them, inflation and mortgage rates. Mortgage approval levels have softened in response, but buyer demand is starting to adjust.
ENERGY COSTS PUSH UP INFLATION CPI inflation rose to 2.9% in the 12 months to July, up from 2.6% in June and the highest reading since March¹. The rise has been driven largely by energy costs as the Iran war continues to push up wholesale costs. Household energy bills have been affected; Ofgem’s price cap rose 14% in July, feeding into the inflation figures, and is set to rise a further 4% in October. Inflation is expected to stay elevated, reaching 3.3% by yearend before easing to 2.3% by the end of 2027². The Bank of England’s next rate decision falls on 17 September, with most analysts expecting rates to be held at 3.75% despite inflation moving further from target³. Consumer confidence, meanwhile, improved to -14 in August from -17 in July4, its strongest reading in two years suggesting perhaps that consumers are adjusting to the volatile climate, though geopolitical uncertainty and continued cost-of-living pressures could yet test sentiment in the months ahead.
AUTUMN RECOVERY IN SIGHT? Activity levels typically pick up in autumn as schools restart and moving plans regain focus after the summer slowdown. Over the last 5 years, asking prices increased an average 0.5% between August and September5.
locations. Mortgage rates have eased from earlier in the year but remain elevated (the five-year fixed rate was 4.6% in July³). Mortgage approvals have fallen back; the monthly number in July was just over 56,000 which is 15% lower than the same time last year. Buyer demand has risen 5% since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 20 July. His pledge not to change property taxes in the October Budget appears to have offered early reassurance - though it’s too soon to call this durable5.
RIGHT PRICING CRITICAL House price growth continues to be moderate, with annual growth of 1.6% in August, compared with 1.4% in July6. In England and Wales, the average price of a prime market property is £1.14 million, softened by 5.8% year-on-year. The average price of a newly listed home fell 2.0% over the month, a steeper drop than usual for August, as sellers compete against the highest number of listings for this time of year in over 10 years5 alongside the typically quieter summer market. Getting the price right from the start remains critical in this market; wrongly priced homes are far more likely to linger. Almost a third of homes listed since Q2 are still on the market without any price reduction; many of those sellers will need to think about price adjustments to help secure a sale7. ¹ONS, ²HM Treasury Average of Independent Forecasts, 3Bank of England,
Whilst an increase in Autumn activity is expected again this year, it might play out a little differently with high mortgage rates a dampener on activity– particularly in more expensive
4
GfK, 5Rightmove, 6Nationwide, 7Zoopla
£545,000 £747,588 -5% £362
£425,000 £573,847 +0.4% £306
£551,000 £745,152 +1% £384
£589,000 £776,171 -0.1% £388
£540,000 £705,501 -0.2% £342
£495,000 £637,811 +1.6% £335
£727,000 £966,289 -4.2% £470
£524,000 £702,244 +1% £359
£807,000 £1,104,885 -1.1% £536 £933,000 £1,304,676 -4.9% £568
£1,470,000 £2,308,264 -11.4% £1,150
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry. *Based on properties listed to sell over the past 12 months, recorded by Information Works
0% -0.8% -1.6% -2.4% -3.2% -4% -4.8% -5.6% -6.4% AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
JUL 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£1,200 £1,050
£ 998
£900 £750
£ 738
£600 £450
£ 569
£ 581
DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
£ 624
£300 £150 £0
TERRACED
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
24% 16% 8% 0% -8% -16% -24% -32% -40%
JUL 2025
AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£280,198 £795,000 £1,139,697
£223,889 £697,000 £1,016,855
£226,402 £657,000 £1,005,763
£277,592 £661,000 £908,197
£437,396 £1,040,000 £1,494,894
£293,018 £810,000 £1,159,426
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
JUL 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£400 £350 £300
£ 343
£ 339
£ 301
£ 297
£250
£ 259
£200 £150 £100 £50 £0
DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
TERRACED
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
84
81
80
76
76
73
72
70
68 64 60
60
62
63
66
64
66 62
60
62
56 52 JUN 2025
JUL 2025
AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Rightmove.
64 56 48 40 32 24 16 8 0
JUL 25
AUG 25
SEP 25
OCT 25
NOV 25
2026-09-07
DEC 25
JAN 26
FEB 26
MAR 26
APR 26
MAY 26
JUN 26
JUL 26