THE PROPERTY MARKET
A REVIEW OF THE KEY TRENDS IN THE NATIONAL AND LOCAL HOUSING MARKET
SCOTLAND
Analysis
by PriceHubble
SOLID FOUNDATIONS
£264,515 November 2024 vs £271,188 November 2025
55,712 Q4 2024 vs 59,795 Q4 2025 7.3% 8.4% 0.8% 2.5%
£21.1bn* December 2024 vs £23.0bn* December 2025 8.8% House prices
New private homes built (completed)
95,430 January 2025 vs 94,680 January 2026 Gross mortgage lending
66,634 December 2024 vs 61,013 December 2025
Source: Pricehubble, ONS, HMRC, Bank of England, DLUHC, HomeLet *Figures rounded to nearest £0.1bn
THE HOUSING MARKET HAS STARTED THE YEAR WITH RENEWED MOMENTUM, FOLLOWING A QUIETER CLOSE TO 2025. GREATER MORTGAGE CHOICE AND RATES LOWER THAN THOSE SEEN LAST YEAR ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THE MARKET.
INTEREST RATES HELD
Consumer price inflation eased to 3.0% in January, down from 3.4% in December¹, which had marked the first increase after five consecutive months of decline, signaling that the broader downward trend has now resumed. Interest rates were maintained at 3.75% in February, a decision widely expected by economists given the mixed economic backdrop. However, rates are expected to lower over the year with one or potentially two further 0.25 percentage point cuts are expected. Whilst economic growth is expected to be modestly weaker over 2026 (at 1.1%)² this is close to the level that has historically been sufficient to drive positive house price growth.
MORTGAGE RATES CONTINUE TO EASE
Mortgage product choice increased in January to 7,158 options, the highest total since October 2007³. The number of deals available to borrowers with 5% or 10% deposits has also reached an 18-year high, offering a welcome boost for first-time buyers looking to step onto the property ladder. Alongside greater choice, mortgage rates are easing with the latest five-year fixed rate falling to 3.95% – the first time it has been below 4% since September 20224 . Lower mortgage rates are helping to fuel the desire to move, while the easing of stress-testing requirements and expectations of further rate cuts are also reducing affordability pressures for borrowers.
MARKET MOMENTUM
In January there were 94,680 transactions, 1% lower than the same month last year. Transaction levels over 2025 were in line with the 10-year average of 1.2 million a year, a pace expected to continue throughout 20265 Demand at the start of 2026 broadly mirrors 2024 levels but is around 9% lower than the busy start to last year, when buyers rushed to beat the April stamp duty deadline 6 . Mortgage approvals totalled 61,013 in December, down year-on-year, but above end-2023 levels of around 52,000 4 . Looking ahead, expectations of easing interest rates and a high level of choice should support renewed confidence across the market.
LETTINGS
2.4%
Average rents January 2025 vs January 2026
£1,302
Average monthly rent across the UK January 2026
Net +28% OF PROPERTY PROFESSIONALS
EXPECT RENTAL PRICES TO RISE IN THE NEAR TERM
RENTAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Rents across the UK remain 2.4% higher year on year, despite recent short-term softening¹. On a monthly basis, average rents fell by 1.1% in January to £1,302, the third consecutive monthly decline in line with a typical seasonal slowdown. Most regions saw small monthly decreases, with only the North West and South East avoiding falls. However, RICS data indicated a modest pick-up in tenant demand in January, ending two consecutive quarters of flat or slightly negative readings. In line with this, a net +28% of respondents expect rental prices to rise in the near term, up from +16% previously².
Transaction activity across the housing market is expected to remain solid this year, which should help underpin low singledigit house price growth. At the same time, wider industry shifts, including Renters’ Rights reforms and changes to mortgage lending conditions, will continue to influence market conditions.
NICKY STEVENSON MD, FINE & COUNTRY UK
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2026
THE FORCES EXPECTED TO SHAPE THE MARKET
INFLATIONARY TRENDS
The property market is being shaped by a range of important forces as we continue to head into 2026. Inflation remains a key influence on overall market conditions, easing to 3.0% in January, down from 3.4% in December. This gradual downward trend is expected to continue throughout the year, with inflation forecast to reach 2.2% by the end of 2026, closely aligning with the 2 % target².
RENTERS’ RIGHTS REFORM
The Renters’ Rights Act brings major changes in England beginning to take effect from 1 May 2026. Described as the most significant reform to renting in a generation, it abolishes Section 21 “no-fault” evictions and introduces rolling periodic tenancies to improve stability for tenants, alongside a ban on rental bidding wars and stronger requirements for evidence-based rent increases. Further measures will be phased in over time, including a new Private Rented Sector Ombudsman and a national landlord database.
2.2%
Inflation forecast by end-2026
Source: HM Treasury Average of Independent Forecasts
11m private renters
2.3m landlords
Set to be affected by the Renter’s Rights Reform Bill
Source: GOV.UK
6×
Income lending expands across the mortgage market
MORTGAGE LENDING SHIFTS
Mortgage lending conditions are also evolving, with several UK lenders expanding access to loans of up to six times income for eligible borrowers, supported by recent regulatory easing and ongoing affordability pressures. Nationwide has recently extended its high loan-to-income (LTI) lending, allowing more customers to borrow at this level. Demand for higher LTI lending has already risen sharply, with Nationwide reporting a 57% increase in first-time buyer mortgages above five times income in 2025.
¹ONS, ²HM Treasury Average of Independent Forecasts
NATIONAL MARKET CONDITIONS
SPRING 2026 MARKET
Average UK house prices stood at £271,188 in November, up 2.5% year on year¹. All regions recorded positive annual growth, with the exception of London, where prices have softened by 1.2%. The strongest gains continue to be seen in less affordability-constrained markets, led by Northern Ireland (7.1%), the North East (6.8%) and Scotland (4.5%)¹. Expectations of falling interest rates alongside continued wage growth are helping to improve mortgage affordability. This economic backdrop should support a solid year for the housing market, with low single-digit house price growth forecast. Agent sentiment reflects this outlook, over half (53%) of those polled expect house prices to rise by 1–3% in 2026, while 22% anticipate broadly stable prices within a ±1% range².
7.1%
ANNUAL CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES AND TRANSACTIONS, NOVEMBER 2025
4.5% 4.1% 6.8% 3.3%
Source: PriceHubble, HMRC, ONS, UK HPI (November 2025)
NORTH EAST
NORTH WEST
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER HOUSE PRICE GROWTH TO NOVEMBER 2025
NORTHERN IRELAND 2.7% EAST MIDLANDS 0.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.8%
2.1%
House prices Transactions
Source: PriceHubble, HMRC, ONS, UK HPI (November 2025) ¹ONS, ²PriceHubble poll of subscribers
REGIONAL ACTIVITY SCOTLAND
2026 began with the highest level of homes for sale in over eight years, with the average agent marketing 32 properties (Zoopla). Around a third of these homes were previously listed in 2025 and have since returned to the market after uncertainty late last year dampened activity. The uplift in supply is most pronounced in southern England, where listings in London were up 16% year on year and the South East saw a
9% increase. House price growth remains linked to supply, with increased availability moderating growth by giving buyers more choice and greater negotiating power. As always, local pricing can differ significantly from national trends. Average property values in the region were up 4.5% on last year’s levels. Strongest price growth was evident in South Lanarkshire (9.4%), a margin ahead of the next top performers North Ayrshire (7.9%) and Midlothian (7.7%).
Current annual rate of house price change (%) Less than 0% 0% to 1.99%
2.0% to 3.99%
4.0% to 5.99%
6.0 to 7.99% Over 8.0%
Source: PriceHubble, ONS, UK HPI November 2025
Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2016
Supply boost
6.6%
East Lothian % OF PRIVATE STOCK TURNOVER
PriceHubble,
National Records Scotland, ONS, UK HPI (November 2025)
IMPROVING SENTIMENT
The housing market ended 2025 on a quieter note, as many buyers postponed moving decisions amid Budget uncertainty and the usual seasonal slowdown. However, sentiment has strengthened in the new year. With greater choice for buyers and solid market fundamentals, 12-month sales expectations in the latest RICS survey are at their highest since late 2024. Overall, growth in sales agreed in 2025 compared with 2024 was recorded across all UK regions, except Northern Ireland and London¹.
5%
YEAR-ON-YEAR INCREASE IN SALES AGREED IN SCOTLAND
Source: TwentyCi, End of year 2025 vs End of Year 2024
A SPRING BOOST FOR SELLERS
February and March have emerged best months to list, delivering the highest number of homes that go on to successfully complete. Two-thirds of properties (66.3%) listed during these months went on to complete, above the 2025 average success rate of 55.5%². February is also among the fastest months to secure a buyer, averaging 51 days, on par with January, with March and April close behind at around 52 days.
2
OUT OF 3
HOMES LISTED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH WENT ON TO COMPLETE
Source: Rightmove
¹TwentyCi, End of year 2025 vs End of Year 2024, ²Rightmove
PriceHubble, National Records Scotland, ONS, UK HPI (November 2025)
Fine & Country Head Office, 119-121 Park Lane, Mayfair, London W1K 7AG +44 (0)20 7079 1515 | parklane@fineandcountry.com | fineandcountry.com
Analysis by PriceHubble
PriceHubble is a European B2B company that builds innovative digital solutions for the financial and real estate industries based on property valuations and market insights. PriceHubble’s digital solutions are designed to help all players across the entire real estate value chain (banks, asset managers, developers, property managers and real estate agents). PriceHubble is already active in Europe, Japan and the United States.
pricehubble.com/uk
Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use. At all times the content remains the property of Dataloft Ltd under copyright, and reproduction of all or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.
Date of publication: February 2026 Analysis, editorial, design, graphics and charts by Dataloft.