AU T UMN 2026
WA L E S M A R K E T U P D AT E
WA L E S
£495,000
£637,811
+1.6%
£335
£1.2bn
100
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (JULY)
56,053
-10.3%
-14.9%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (JULY)
96,710
-4.0%
-1.1%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (JULY)
£25.9bn
-1.1%
5.5%
52,772
7.4%
1.9%
210,751
-
3.2%
NEW HOMES BUILT (Q226) NEW HOMES BUILT (ANNUAL)
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Bank of England, HMRC, ONS
2
PR EMI UM MAR KETS
WALES
SHIFTING SEASONS
As we move into the typically busier autumn season, global headwinds persist. Yet the market is showing resilience, with a stable outlook for activity and prices. Many buyers and sellers are still sitting tight, but there are early signs of buyers cautiously re-engaging. RESILIENT GROWTH The economy grew 0.4% in July¹, beating expectations of no growth, driven by a strong services sector partly helped by businesses using artificial intelligence. The growth underlines the economy’s resilience in the face of external shocks, including the war in Iran, though economists expect growth to slow in the coming months as high energy prices squeeze household spending. CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in the 12 months to August¹, driven largely by rising energy costs, and is expected to rise to 3.4% by year-end². Despite this, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at its September meeting, the sixth hold in a row, but signalled that rates are likely to rise if conflict-driven high energy prices continue.
SITTING TIGHT Against this tougher backdrop, more buyers and sellers are choosing to sit tight. Elevated mortgage rates remain a drag on activity, particularly in pricier areas. Mortgage approvals slipped to 56,053 in July, below June’s level and 15% lower than a year earlier³. There are early signs of a turnaround, though: Rightmove reports demand has picked up by around 5% since Andy Burnham took office as Prime Minister on 20 July, with his commitment to leave property taxes untouched in the October Budget giving buyers some reassurance, though it’s too early to say if the trend will last4.
EARLY SIGNALS
to a net balance of -3%, up from -13%, pointing to a broadly stable short-term outlook, while the twelve-month outlook improved to +6%, a modest uptick on last month’s +3%5. Despite slightly subdued transaction levels, home searches are now running 7% higher than last year, their strongest annual increase in twelve months6 , an early signal that buyers are re-engaging as summer draws to a close. Late August and early September typically bring a fresh wave of asking price reductions, as sellers recalibrate and draw returning buyers back to the table. In Wales, searches for homes are now 8.1% higher than last year6 .
PRICE DYNAMICS UK house prices slipped 0.2% in August, a second monthly decline, leaving them just 0.2% higher than at the start of the year7. Recent movements are best kept in perspective, though: average prices remain around 25% higher than at the end of 2019, despite the sharp rise in interest rates over that period. The market’s adjustment to higher borrowing costs has been gradual, with wage growth helping to offset some of the pressure on affordability. Employment has also held up better than many anticipated, and with pay continuing to rise, underlying demand from those who need or want to move looks set to be supported. In Wales, the prime markets of Pembroke/ Tenby and Barry are currently the best performing. Looking ahead, house price growth is expected to remain modest, reaching 1.8% by the end of the year and 2.0% by the end of 2027².
Transactions eased slightly in July, with HMRC recording 96,710, down 1.1% year-on-year. Looking ahead, however, sentiment has improved: near-term sales expectations rose
¹ONS, ²HM Treasury Average of Independent Forecasts, ³Bank of England, 4 Rightmove, 5 RICS, 6 Zoopla, 7Lloyds
PR EMI UM MAR KETS
WALES
3
£425,000 £573,847 +0.4% £306
£551,000 £745,152 +1% £384
£589,000 £776,171 -0.1% £388
£540,000 £705,501 -0.2% £342
£495,000 £637,811 +1.6% £335
£807,000 £1,104,885 -1.1% £536
£727,000 £966,289 -4.2% £470
£933,000 £1,304,676 -4.9% £568
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
4
PR EMI UM MAR KETS
£524,000 £702,244 +1% £359
WALES
£1,470,000 £2,308,264 -11.4% £1,150
WA L E S P R E M I U M M A R K E T
£429,000 £589,649 +2.5% £291
£345,000 £393,833 -2.7% £233
£335,000 £389,755 -12.9% £264
£530,000 £708,704 +10% £342
£469,000 £604,412 -2.5% £321
£475,000 £593,546 +2% £306
£723,000 £962,386 +10% £390
£600,000 £756,090 -0.6% £394
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
PR EMI UM MAR KETS
WALES
5
WA L E S P R E M I U M M A R K E T
WALES
3% 2.5% 2% 1.5% 1% 0.5% 0% -0.5% -1% AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
JUL 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
WALES
£400 £350
£ 359
£300
£ 342
£ 349 £ 319
£ 335
£250 £200 £150 £100 £50 £0
DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
TERRACED
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
6
PR EMI UM MAR KETS
WALES
WA L E S M A I N S T R E A M M A R K E T
WALES
15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25%
JUL 2025
AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
WALES
£320 £280 £240
£ 267 £ 227
£200
£ 219
£ 218
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
£ 180
£160 £120 £80 £40 £0
DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
TERRACED
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
PR EMI UM MAR KETS
WALES
7
WA L E S
£209,322 £495,000 £637,811
£140,156 £295,000 £377,100
£159,116 £332,000 £421,794
£210,480 £395,000 £504,317
£329,459 £675,000 £838,336
£215,969 £502,000 £652,204 Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
2026-09-07