O C TOBER 2026
£791,000
£1,138,792
-5.8%
£627
£43.3bn
16,785
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (AUG)
54,918
-8.3%
-16.0%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (AUG)
95,220
-3.9%
-1.9%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (AUG)
£23.6bn
-8.4%
1.8%
52,772
7.4%
1.9%
210,751
-
3.2%
NEW HOMES BUILT (Q226) NEW HOMES BUILT (ANNUAL)
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Bank of England, HMRC, ONS
CAUTIOUS AUTUMN
Higher borrowing costs and uncertainty over the path of interest rates are likely holding back some movers as attention turns to the Budget on 28 October. However, there are signs of buyer interest, and price growth remains in positive territory.
ENERGY PUSHES UP INFLATION
PRICES HOLD STEADY
Conflict in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, lifting CPI inflation to 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% in July¹. The Bank of England, which forecasts inflation could exceed 4% early next year, held interest rates at 3.75% in September for a sixth consecutive meeting, but signalled they could rise if high energy prices persist². While activity has held up reasonably well, the prospect of rates staying higher for longer has renewed pressure on mortgage pricing. According to Moneyfacts, the average five-year fixed rate has climbed to 5.94%, its highest level since October 2023, while the average two-year fix has risen to 5.93%, the most expensive since July 2024. Encouragingly, modest wage growth suggests higher energy costs are not yet feeding into underlying price pressures. This will be tested in the coming months, as Ofgem’s October price cap lifts a typical annual energy bill by 4% to £1,723, with a further 16% rise forecast for January³.
Price growth is slowing but remains positive, with annual growth easing to 0.8% in September, its weakest rate since December 2025⁷. Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland continue to outperform other regions. Meanwhile, asking prices rose 0.7% this month, above the ten-year September average of 0.5%, as movers refocus on their plans after the summer holidays⁸. However, this marks a modest recovery rather than a turning point, following a run of monthly price falls over the summer. With prices rising well below earnings for some time, affordability is improving, only partly offset by higher mortgage rates. Activity could regain momentum in the coming quarters if the energy shock fades and confidence returns, particularly if market interest rates fall back to pre-conflict levels. In England and Wales, the average price of a prime market property is £1.14 million, softened by 5.8% year-on-year.
MIXED SIGNALS FOR DEMAND Higher borrowing costs and uncertainty over the mediumterm path of rates are likely holding back some potential movers. Mortgage approvals fell to 54,918 in August, below the six-month average of around 60,100 and 16% lower than a year ago². Transaction levels have proved more resilient, with 95,220 in August, only 2% fewer than a year earlier⁴. There are also early signs of renewed buyer interest, with searches for homes up 7%⁵. Forwardlooking sentiment also points to a more stable outlook, as near-term sales expectations rose to a broadly neutral net balance of -3%, up from -13%, while a net balance of +6% of respondents expect sales volumes to increase over the next twelve months, a modest improvement on last month’s +3%⁶.
THE PRICE OF PROTECTED LANDSCAPES Access to green space remains a priority for many buyers, and homes in Britain’s protected landscapes command a clear premium. Those inside a National Park sell for 24% more than similar properties elsewhere, a premium of around £66,500⁹. Homes in National Landscapes (formerly AONBs) command a 14% premium, and even those within 5km of a National Park boundary attract 6%. The New Forest is the most expensive National Park at an average of £563,000, with tight development controls and lasting demand for rural living keeping prices well above the national average.
¹ONS, ²Bank of England, ³ Ofgem, Cornwall Insight, ⁴ HMRC, ⁵ Zoopla, ⁶ RICS, ⁷ Nationwide, ⁸ Rightmove, ⁹ Nationwide, ONS, National Parks UK
£550,000 £755,423 -3.8% £313
£426,000 £577,357 +0.5% £307
£550,000 £737,613 -0.8% £384
£590,000 £773,735 -0.6% £389
£540,000 £705,471 -0.8% £342
£494,000 £637,788 +0.4% £335
£725,000 £965,508 -3.8% £475
£525,000 £702,951 +1.7% £360
£804,000 £1,093,063 -3.3% £536 £925,000 £1,289,821 -6.1% £568
£1,470,000 £2,319,025 -9.6% £1,155
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry. *Based on properties listed to sell over the past 12 months, recorded by Information Works
0% -0.8% -1.6% -2.4% -3.2% -4% -4.8% -5.6% -6.4% SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
JUL 2026
AUG 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£1,200 £1,050
£ 999
£900 £750
£ 738
£600 £450
£ 569
£ 582
DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
£ 627
£300 £150 £0
TERRACED
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
24% 16% 8% 0% -8% -16% -24% -32% -40%
AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
JUL 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£279,969 £791,000 £1,138,792
£223,815 £697,000 £1,023,012
£226,355 £654,000 £996,947
£277,254 £659,000 £902,195
£436,684 £1,030,000 £1,490,067
£292,753 £806,000 £1,157,027
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
JUL 2026
AUG 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
£400 £350 £300
£ 343
£ 339
£ 301
£ 297
£250
£ 259
£200 £150 £100 £50 £0
DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
TERRACED
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Land Registry.
84
81
80
76
76
73
72
70
68 64
63
64
66
66 62
60
60
62
63
64
JUL 2026
AUG 2026
56 52 AUG 2025
SEP 2025
OCT 2025
NOV 2025
DEC 2025
JAN 2026
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, Rightmove.
64 56 48 40 32 24 16 8 0
AUG 25
SEP 25
OCT 25
NOV 25
DEC 25
2026-10-01
JAN 26
FEB 26
MAR 26
APR 26
MAY 26
JUN 26
JUL 26
AUG 26