AUTUMN 2026
THE
PROPERT Y MARKET A REVIEW OF THE KEY TRENDS IN THE N AT I O N A L A N D L O C A L H O U S I N G M A R K E T
SCOTLAND
Analysis by PriceHubble
EYES ON THE AUTUMN MARKET
SA LES
2.7%
2.5%
10.0%
House prices
Property sales
Mortgage approvals
£264,078 May 2025 vs £271,295 May 2026
96,300 June 2025 vs 98,700 June 2026
64,046 June 2025 vs 58,200 June 2026
1.9%
15.1%
New private homes Gross mortgage built (completed) lending 51,809 Q2 2025 vs 52,772 Q2 2026
£23.8bn* June 2025 vs £27.4bn* June 2026
Source: Pricehubble, ONS, HMRC, Bank of England, DLUHC, HomeLet *Figures rounded to nearest £0.1bn
THE HOUSING MARKET HAS SHOWN REAL RESILIENCE THIS SUMMER, WITH TRANSACTIONS HOLDING UP AND BUYERS STILL WILLING TO MOVE WHEN THE RIGHT PROPERTY COMES ALONG. AS WE HEAD INTO THE KEY AUTUMN SEASON, A NEW PRIME MINISTER BRINGS THE CHANCE TO RESET THE POLICY AGENDA AHEAD OF THE BUDGET. RATES ON HOLD Inflation fell more than expected to 2.6% in June¹, though forecasts for 2026 are materially higher than they were at the start of the year (now 3.4% vs 2.2%), reflecting the Iran conflict’s implications for global supply chains². The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% in July, citing the ongoing hostilities, and is expected to hold through year-end, though mortgage rates may continue to price in the higher-risk environment until tensions are resolved. Earnings growth has been slowing but remains solid, with a stronger forecast at mid-year than at the start, helping to rebuild household finances a little.
HOPES FOR AN AUTUMN RECOVERY This year’s summer slowdown has been sharper than usual, with elevated mortgage rates weighing on buyers, who have also been distracted by sunshine, football and political change. Average asking prices dropped 1.0% this month³, well above the ten-year average July fall of 0.2%. Historically, this gives way to a September bounce-back, with asking prices up 0.5% on average from August to September over the past five years4. Activity is likely to pick up in autumn, provided rates hold steady and the picture clears following Burnham’s first Budget. Mortgage approvals ticked up in June, pointing to underlying market resilience, though remain 10% lower year-on-year5.
MORTGAGE MARKET Mortgage availability increased for a third consecutive month, with the number of products on offer rising by 45 to 7,177 in June6 . The market continued to recover following widespread product withdrawals earlier in the year, although there were still 307 fewer deals available than at the start of March. However, after recent falls, average mortgage rates have risen again as renewed tensions in the Middle East feed through to homeowners7. Recent projections by the Bank of England suggest just over five million homeowners on fixed-rate mortgages will see their repayments rise by the end of 2028, as they roll off current deals onto higher rates.
¹ONS ²HM Treasury Consensus Forecasts Dec 2025 and July 2026 ³Rightmove 4PriceHubble, Rightmove 2021–2025 5Bank of England 6Moneyfacts
2 | HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Autumn 2026
LETTINGS
4.3% £1,369 Average rents
Average monthly rent across the UK
July 2025 vs July 2026
July 2026
+18% RENTER DEMAND NET BALANCE Source: RICS, June 2026
WHAT’S IN STORE FOR THE RENTAL MARKET? The average rent reached £1,369 in July, up 4.3% year on year¹. With peak rental season in full swing, RICS also reported a pickup in renter demand, reaching the strongest level since May 2025. After major changes to the rental sector earlier this year, the Renters’ Rights Act enters its next phase from late 2026. Phase 2 introduces a Private Rented Sector Database, requiring landlords to register themselves and their properties, rolled out gradually by area, plus a free Landlord Ombudsman service to resolve tenant-landlord disputes without going to court, though full rollout isn’t expected until around 2028.
It's encouraging that activity is holding up, with buyers and sellers still confident enough to move despite ongoing economic and political change. All eyes now turn to the new PM's first Autumn Budget, market confidence from here will depend on greater policy certainty, particularly around tax. NICKY STEVENSON MD, FINE & COUNTRY UK
¹HomeLet
Analysis by PriceHubble
HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 3
NEW PRIME MINISTER P O T E N T I A L R E F O R M S A N D W H AT T H E Y COULD MEAN FOR THE MARKET
840,000
homes are expected to be under construction by mid 2029
Just over half the housebuilding target of 1.5m Source: Savills
243,000
homes would be affected by the mansion tax if the threshold drops to £1.5m. Nearly double the 127,000 homes currently above the existing £2m threshold Source: Tax Policy Associates, Land Registry
44%
of landlords with 26+ properties plan to hold or grow their portfolio Source: Allsop survey, May 2026
NEW GOVERNMENT, NEW PROPOSALS Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 20 July 2026 and housing has emerged as an early priority. Among his most high-profile pledges is “the biggest council house building programme since WWII,” reportedly funded by diverting the £39bn affordable housing budget to social rent homes, which could squeeze schemes like shared ownership. The challenge is steep: the wider 1.5m homes target is already forecast to fall 42% short by 2029/30¹. None of his plans are confirmed, with detail expected at the Autumn Budget.
MANSION TAX
LANDLORDS AND SECOND HOMES
There’s also speculation that Burnham will lower the mansion tax threshold from £2 million to £1.5 million, pulling more “ordinary-if-expensive” homes into scope and nearly doubling affected properties to around 243,000². Based on the current lowest band, this could mean an annual charge of around £2,500, hitting asset-rich but cash-poor occupiers, such as retirees, hardest. As with any policy shift, the prospect alone risks short-term disruption, though markets are likely to adjust quickly once details are confirmed.
Despite speculation, Burnham has ruled out introducing rent caps or controls, and confirmed there are no immediate changes planned to stamp duty or council tax. A potential alignment of Capital Gains Tax with income tax on disposals of buy-to-let and second homes remains under discussion, though nothing is yet confirmed. If introduced, some landlords may respond by raising rents or exiting the market, potentially accelerating a shift toward larger, more professionalised investors in high buy-to-let areas.
¹Savills, ²Tax Policy Associates, Land Registry
4 | HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Autumn 2026
NATIONA L M A R K ET CONDITIONS Modest house price growth has prevailed despite the headwinds, and buyers and sellers have kept transacting. Average house prices reached £271,295 in May, 2.7% higher than the same month last year¹. By property type, semi-detached houses saw the strongest annual growth at 4.5%, ahead of terraced (3.6%) and detached (3.1%) homes, while flats fell by 1.3% over the same period. Looking ahead, high levels of supply, geopolitical uncertainty, and a softer economy point to modest but steady price growth for the rest of the year. Expectations for price growth have slowed since the start of the year amid ongoing uncertainty, with prices now forecast to soften slightly to reach 1.0% growth by yearend, down from an initial 2.0%².
HOUSE PRICE GROWTH TO MAY 2026 Less than 0% 0% to 0.99% 1% to 2.99% 3% to 4.99% 5% and over
S C OT L A N D
4.4%
Source: PriceHubble, ONS, UK HPI (May 2026)
NORTH E AS T
NORTHER N IREL AND
7.4%
5.9% 5.8% 4.3%
NORTH WES T
YO R K S H I R E A N D THE HUMBER
E AST MIDL ANDS
ANNUAL CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES AND TRANSACTIONS, MAY 2026 WEST MIDL ANDS
60% 40%
WA L E S
4.2%
20% 0%
2.7%
-20%
EAST OF ENGL AND
2.3%
SOUTH E AST
-40% -60%
3.2%
SOUTH WEST MAY 25
JUN 25
House prices
JUL 25
AUG 25
SEP 25
OCT NOV DEC 25 25 25
JAN 26
FEB 26
Transactions
MAR 26
APR 26
MAY 26
1.7%
1.2%
LO N D O N
-3.7%
¹ONS UK HPI, ²HM Treasury, Average of Independent Forecasts, July 2026 Source: PriceHubble, HMRC, ONS, UK HPI (May 2026)
Analysis by PriceHubble
HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 5
R EGIONA L ACTI V IT Y SCOTL A ND Property transactions stabilised in June, following two months of decline, with 98,700 recorded and up 2.5% year-onyear¹. Zooming out, the market is showing resilience: 468,830 transactions were completed in the first half of 2026, 14% higher than the same period in 2024 and just 4% below last year, showing that buyers are still willing to move when the right property comes along at the right price. This suggests the market is maintaining baseline activity despite headwinds, though the absence of typical
seasonal growth points to continued caution ahead of anticipated policy changes. Both activity and pricing remain stronger in less affordabilityconstrained areas, with local trends often diverging from the national picture. Average property values in the region were up 4.4% on last year’s levels. Strongest price growth was evident in South Ayrshire and Moray (both 10.7%), a margin ahead of the next top performer East Dunbartonshire (10.2%).
Orkney Shetland Islands
Na h-Eileanan Siar
Moray Highland
Aberdeenshire
Aberdeen City
Angus Perth and Kinross
Current annual rate of price change (%) Above 8.0% 6.0%–7.99% 4.0%–5.99% 2.0%–3.99% 0.0%–1.99% Less than 0%
Source: PriceHubble, ONS, UK HPI May 2026 Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2016
Dundee City West Dunbartonshire East Dunbartonshire
Argyll and Bute
Clackmannanshire Falkirk Inverclyde
6 | HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Glasgow City
City of West Edinburgh Lothian Midlothian
East Lothian
South Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire
Scottish Borders
East
Ayrshire Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire North Lanarkshire
Measured Activity
Fife
Stirling
South Ayrshire Dumfries and Galloway
Autumn 2026
6.7% East Lothian
% O F PR I VAT E S TO C K T U R N OV E R
BUYERS’ MARKET
Source: PriceHubble, National Records Scotland, ONS, UK HPI (May 2026)
MOST ACTIVE HOUSING MARKETS ACROSS THE REGION RANK
1
EAST LOTHIAN
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
MIDLOTHIAN NORTH AYRSHIRE WEST LOTHIAN RENFREWSHIRE CITY OF ABERDEEN SOUTH LANARKSHIRE WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE CITY OF GLASGOW STIRLING CITY OF DUNDEE SOUTH AYRSHIRE PERTH AND KINROSS FALKIRK CITY OF EDINBURGH EAST AYRSHIRE FIFE CLACKMANNANSHIRE MORAY NORTH LANARKSHIRE
% OF PRIVATE STOCK TURNOVER
AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE
6.7% 6.5% 6.1% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
£291,237 £280,952 £136,435 £226,203 £159,417 £134,507 £181,586 £124,444 £189,448 £230,509 £140,878 £171,288 £227,904 £172,412 £296,471 £134,530 £174,496 £164,170 £209,866 £156,327
Source: PriceHubble, National Records Scotland, ONS, UK HPI (May 2026)
Analysis by PriceHubble
With the supply of homes for sale sitting close to a 12-year high for this time of year, buyers have plenty of choice¹. This growing pool of stock has pushed the average time to sell higher: properties in England and Wales are now taking 38 days to find a buyer, 7.7% longer than a year ago². With more homes competing for attention, correctly priced properties that stand out are the ones selling fastest.
20 DAYS
AVER AGE TIME TO SELL IN SCOTL AND 3.6% SHORTER THAN A YEAR AGO
HOUSEBUILDING TARGETS 210,751 new homes were built in the 12 months to end Q2 2026, down on levels seen between 2021 and 2023, as slower delivery and rising costs weigh on viability. It’s now reported to cost £76,000 more to build a home than in 2020¹. Still, completions are up 3.2% on the previous 12 months², though delivery remains likely to fall well short of the government’s 1.5 million homes target. Burnham’s council housing pledge adds ambition, but sustained delivery at this pace will be the real test.
210,751
N E W H O M E S B U I LT I N T H E Y E A R TO E N D Q2 20 26 ¹Rightmove, ²PriceHubble using Information Works data, June 2026, average number of days on the market for all properties that went under offer or SSTC in the month. 3Home Builders Federation, 4DLUHC
HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 7
Fine & Country Head Office, 119-121 Park Lane, Mayfair, London W1K 7AG +44 (0)20 7079 1515 | parklane@fineandcountry.com | fineandcountry.com
Analysis by PriceHubble
PriceHubble is a European B2B company that builds innovative digital solutions for the financial and real estate industries based on property valuations and market insights. PriceHubble’s digital solutions are designed to help all players across the entire real estate value chain (banks, asset managers, developers, property managers and real estate agents). PriceHubble is already active in Europe, Japan and the United States. pricehubble.com/uk
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