www.fsb.org.uk/scotland
SCOTLAND Q3 2019 SMALL BUSINESS INDEX Small businesses confidence in Scotland falls back into negative Small Business Confidence territory. In the third quarter of 2019, the FSB Scottish Small Business 50 Index (SBI) reversed some of the gain recorded in Q2, falling back from +3.0 to -13.5. This brings the Scottish reading below the national 40 average score for the UK where confidence stood at -8.1 in Q3.
-10 -20 -30
Scotland SBI
UK SBI
Q3 2019
Q1 2019
Q3 2018
Q3 2018
Q1 2018
Q3 2017
Q1 2017
Q3 2016
Q1 2016
Q3 2015
Q1 2015
Q3 2014
Q1 2014
Q3 2013
Q1 2013
-40
Source: FSB Small Business Index.
Net balance of small firms in Scotland reporting revenue/profit growth 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
Revenue
Profit
Q4 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q2 2018
Q4 2017
Q2 2017
Q4 2016
Q2 2016
Q4 2015
Q2 2015
Q4 2014
-30%
Q2 2014
-20%
Q4 2013
The size of the upturn may partially reflect the volatility in sales caused by the original Brexit deadline in March. While firms stockpiled goods in Q1 in order to avoid disruption form a no-deal exit, the subsequent slowdown will have negatively affected sales in Q2. As these returned toward normal levels in the third quarter, many firms could have seen an upturn in their sales relative to Q1.
0
Q2 2013
Scottish small businesses report revenues are on the rise. A net balance of +12.2% of small businesses in Scotland reported higher revenues over the last three months. This is an increase of 32.4 percentage points on the -20.2% net balance seen in Q1. This is the first time since Q3 2016 that more small businesses in Scotland have reported increasing revenues than have reported decreasing revenues over the past three months.
10
Q4 2012
Small business confidence was marginally higher on average across the UK in Q3. The UK-wide index rose by 0.7 points in Q3 2019, up from -8.8 in Q2 2019, to -8.1. The Scottish SBI stood at +3.0 in Q2 as business reported a surge in confidence from the start of the year. The outlook for the next three months is less optimistic, however, and in Q3 the Scottish SBI fell back by 16.5 points to -13.5. The latest setback for small business confidence means the reading has only broken above zero twice since the end of 2015.
20
Q3 2012
Despite recording a lower level of confidence than the UK-wide average, Scottish small businesses were more likely to report increased revenues and growth in employment during the third quarter. This suggests that an additional round of stockpiling driven by the latest Brexit deadline may cause another downturn in Scottish output during the final quarter of the year.
30
Q2 2012
The Scottish economy contracted in the second quarter of 2019, shrinking by 0.3% compared to Q1. This was a more severe contraction than the 0.2% decline recorded across the UK as a whole. The biggest falls in output occurred in sectors, such as manufacturing and construction, which showed large increases in the previous quarter as stockpiling took place throughout Q1.
Source: FSB Small Business Index