www.fsb.org.uk/scotland
SCOTLAND Q1 2024 SMALL BUSINESS INDEX
-100
Q1 2024
Q1 2023
Q3 2023
Q3 2022
Q1 2022
Q1 2021
UK SBI
Q3 2021
Q3 2020
Q1 2020
Q1 2019
Scotland SBI
Q3 2019
Q1 2018
Q3 2018
Q1 2017
Q3 2017
Q1 2016
Q3 2016
-200
Q3 2015
-150
Source: FSB Small Business Index
Net balance of small firms in Scotland reporting revenue growth 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
Revenue
Q4 2023
Q2 2024
Q2 2023
Q4 2022
Q4 2021
Q2 2022
Q2 2021
Q4 2020
Q2 2020
Q4 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q2 2018
Q4 2017
Q2 2017
Q4 2016
-60%
Q2 2016
-50%
Q4 2015
At the same time, however, the number of Scottish small businesses reporting revenue declines in Q1 still exceeded the number reporting an increase. As such, the net balance of firms reporting revenue increases was negative, amounting to -2.7%. This is the third consecutive quarter of a negative reading, although it is the second consecutive quarter of this indicator becoming less negative. Within the net balance figure, 31.3% of Scottish small businesses reported revenue growth over the quarter, slightly less than the UK-wide share of 32.0%. The share of Scottish small businesses reporting a revenue contraction over the quarter stood at 33.9%, lower than the equivalent figure for the UK which stood at 40.5%.
-50
Q4 2014
Notably, only two UK regions saw a negative reading on the SBI in Q1 2024. Scotland’s reading was the third most optimistic amongst the UK’s nations and regions.
0
Q2 2015
The UK-wide SBI also returned to positive territory in Q1 2024, hitting 5.5. This follows a reading of -15.0 in Q4. The return to optimism reflects an improving UK economy. February saw GDP grow for a second consecutive month, therefore increasing the likelihood that the UK has exited the technical recession it entered in the second half of 2023. Cebr is forecasting annual UK GDP growth of 1.0% in 2024, which would mark a significant acceleration from the 0.1% seen in 2023.
50
Q1 2015
Following this strong improvement, the index now sits in positive territory for the first time since Q1 2023, after remaining in negative territory for three consecutive quarters. This positive sentiment reflects an improvement in the broader economic landscape. Although Scotland’s GDP contracted by 0.6% in Q4 2023 on a quarterly basis, growth prospects appear more positive moving forward. This shift in sentiment reflects improvements in consumer spending. While economic headwinds remain, small businesses in Scotland can expect demand from households to improve further this year once the Bank of England begins cutting interest rates. Cebr expects the Scottish economy to grow by 1.1% on the year in 2024, following growth of 0.4% in 2023.
The FSB Small Business Index: Small business prospects over coming three months
Q2 2014
The Small Business Index (SBI) in Scotland rose by 29.9 points in Q1 2024 to reach 10.7, its highest level since Q1 2022. The positive reading means that the number of Scottish small businesses expecting their performance to improve over the coming quarter exceeds the number expecting their performance to worsen.
Source: FSB Small Business Index