Water Crisis: a European Plan to be implemented region by region

A EUROPEAN PLAN TO BE IMPLEMENTED REGION BY REGION

FARM EUROPE - July 2026

AN AGRICULTURAL WATER CRISIS THAT REQUIRES A EUROPEAN PLAN TO SOLVE EUROPE’S WATER REGIONAL PUZZLE

AN AGRICULTURAL WATER CRISIS THAT REQUIRES A EUROPEAN PLAN TO SOLVE EUROPE’S REGIONAL WATER PUZZLE

A EUROPEAN PLAN TO BE IMPLEMENTED REGION BY REGION

The study provides a cartographic overview of water constraints in European agriculture by region, based on the interplay of three complementary dimensions: the structural components of agrosystems, the water health of agroecosystems, and the hydroclimatic context. This approach aims to provide a common analytical framework to guide discussions on short- and long-term responses, without replacing the analyses of local stakeholders, which remain essential. The results are clear: while climate change is a common factor, the nature of water constraints and their implications for agricultural systems vary across regions which can however to assembled in seven groups. Europe faces a mosaic of constraints - whether structural, productive, infrastructural, ecosystem-related, deficit-based, excess-based, seasonal, or annual (etc.) - which makes any idea of a single, uniform response to the water crisis inappropriate but which makes the idea of a European wide initiative even more accurate. Regional analysis at the NUTS 2 level has made it possible to identify distinct regional characteristics and to group regions with similar challenges, calling for a strong European strategy that must be implemented in a differentiated approach by zone: Several regions, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, are engaged in a process of structural aridification: agricultural systems rely heavily on “hydric support” that is increasingly colliding with a local hydroclimatic supply unable to sustain demand, leading to chronic overexploitation of water resources and the depletion of local water capital. Abandoning these most vulnerable regions is not an option: the decline of agriculture in sensitive areas can lead to land abandonment, the advance of desertification, the collapse of ecosystems, the economic decline of entire regions, and ultimately amplifies the problem on a continental scale. Other regions, particularly in Southeast Europe, appear to be entering a critical hydrological transition, marked by hydroclimatic changes that are severely impacting agroecosystems. The challenge there is not only to manage immediate stress but also to halt this trend, which has not yet become structural. In the North Atlantic regions of Europe, agricultural systems historically adapted to favorable climatic conditions are showing marked sensitivity to seasonal hydroclimatic imbalances, with impacts already visible on crops. The regions of Northeast and Central Europe still appear relatively preserved but are showing signs of hydrological decline in their strategic reservoirs (soils and aquifers), suggesting a growing fragility in the local hydrological balance. In this context, Europe cannot address the water crisis with a restrictive measure applied in a standardized manner at field level. The water efficiency of agricultural systems is not measured by a simple accounting of water consumption, but by their ability to maintain the balance of the local water cycle. Water in agriculture must be viewed as a component of a much broader hydrological cycle, and not as a simple productive input. Agroecosystems are active participants in the water cycle: soils with good water health, through their infiltration and storage functions, play a central regulatory role. Taking action to preserve agroecosystems means taking action on European hydroclimatic resilience itself, due to the strong feedback loops between soils, vegetation, and climate.

No region in Europe is safe from climate pressures and the erosion of the essential functions of its agricultural lands. Access to water for agriculture is not a sectoral issue, and farmers cannot bear the costs alone of a problem that extends beyond the watershed scale to ensure public services: ecological stability, food security, and the economic and social resilience of the European Union. While all European regions are affected by water imbalances, the agricultural water crisis is not a uniform phenomenon, but rather a mosaic of regional situations characterized by differing trajectories, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacities. To solve the European water puzzle, only a proactive European strategy with regional adaptations will be able to address the diversity of constraints and challenges facing agricultural water resources.

DIMENSIONS

MAPPING THE WATER CONSTRAINTS OF EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE The study aims first and foremost to conduct a regional assessment of water constraints in European agriculture. With this in mind, Farm Europe has developed a series of cartographic documents designed to provide a concise overview of the regional agricultural water situation. The NUTS2 scale was chosen as the intermediate level of analysis, allowing for the identification of significant regional trends while maintaining the consistency and clarity of the analysis at the European level. All of the cartographic documents were created using data processed with QGIS software.

Carte Nuts2 utilisée pour l’étude (Nuts 2021).

STRUCTURING THE EUROPEAN WATER PUZZLE: A THREE-DIMENSIONAL DIAGNOSTIC FRAMEWORK Three levels of information, organized into three complementary dimensions, were developed to establish a systemic assessment of regional agricultural water constraints: Agrosystem - This indicator aims to describe the regional agricultural system, its main crops, and its technical capacities related to water management. Water constraints do not depend solely on climatic or hydrological conditions: two regions exposed to similar climatic conditions may experience very different levels of constraint depending on their agricultural specialization and the level of their water infrastructure. Agroecosystem - This indicator aims to provide a relative measure of the degree of water sensitivity of the agroecosystem, particularly with regard to soils and crops. More specifically, it seeks to determine the extent to which soils and crops show signs of water stress and the intensity of its potential impact on crop productivity.

Hydroclimatic resources - This indicator aims to characterize the status of water resources at the regional level, focusing on the natural determinants of water supply (precipitation, deep aquifers, etc.). The goal is to identify the main natural constraints that limit the availability of water resources for local agriculture.

By developing cartographic materials based on three complementary dimensions of information, the study aims to provide regional assessments of the main water-related constraints affecting European agriculture. This approach aims to inform decisionmaking, without replacing local analyses conducted by regional stakeholders and industry sectors, which remain essential for refining these assessments and developing practical solutions tailored to the realities of each region.

Each of the three dimensions is based on a set of specific indicators used to describe it. A total of 11 indicators were selected, with the aim of striking a balance between comprehensiveness and clarity, enabling a relevant regional assessment while avoiding an excessive number of variables that could complicate interpretation. It is essential to emphasize that none of the indicators used can be interpreted in isolation; it is their combination that enables a regional assessment.

AGROSYSTEM

Describe the structure of the agricultural system and the technical capabilities related to water management.

Relative water requirements Identify regions where water demand is inherently high, based on the regional crop mix and their relative water requirements.

Irrigation Measuring the level of development of irrigation infrastructure.

Reservoirs Measurement of the relative level of development of storage infrastructure.

AGROECOSYSTEM

Characterize the agroecosystem’s sensitivity to water conditions.

Soil Moisture Measurement of relative soil moisture, a key indicator of the sensitivity of agricultural systems to hydroclimatic conditions.

Soil moisture anomalies

Measurement of abnormal hydrological conditions and their recurrence, which may indicate structural stress.

Productivity anomalies Measuring the impact of environmental conditions (droughts) on crop productivity.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES

Hydrological and climatic conditions that determine a region's ability to make water available for agriculture.

Seasonal precipitation Measurement of seasonal precipitation anomalies (winter and summer).

Climate assessment A long-term climate assessment that provides a measure of water availability anomalies over multi-year time scales.

Precipitation patterns This indicator provides indirect information on the “efficiency” of rainfall events.

Groundwater Assessment of the quantitative status of the region’s groundwater resources, which reflects the long-term sustainability dynamics of the resource.

Pressure on the resource

Measuring the level of pressure on renewable water resources.

INDICATORS

STRUCTURING THE EUROPEAN WATER PUZZLE: 11 INDICATORS TO DESCRIBE THE THREE DIMENSIONS

Identifying the main production trends is a preliminary step that sheds light on regional assessments. The analysis of the crop composition of different regions is part of a large-scale mapping effort aimed at identifying regional production patterns rather than providing an exhaustive description of local agricultural diversity. While European agriculture is generally specialized in cereal production, which constitutes one of the pillars of its production system and trade balance, this overall trend should not overshadow the diversity of agriculture at the regional level.

Map: Main crop composition of NUTS 2 regions. Source: Farm Europe, based on Eurostat data.

Main crop Secondary crop

CROP: Cereals (excluding corn) Maize (grain and silage) Soya Sunflower Rapeseed Cotton Vegetables & green legumes Root crops Vines Olives Lemons Fruits, berries, and nuts Rice Grasslands

LIVESTOCK: Poultry Swine Cattle Cattle – extensive Sheep Goats

METHOD The crop data are drawn from the Eurostat database “Crop production in the EU by NUTS 2 region.” For each NUTS 2 region, the average area and the relative share of each crop, or crop group, in the UAA were calculated for the period 2020–2024. A ranking of crops was established to identify the two dominant crops in each NUTS 2 region in terms of area (% UAA). Note that permanent or temporary grassland is included only when it accounts for at least 66% of the UAA. The schematic elements of livestock systems were constructed by cross-referencing various data sources (Eurostat; INRA 2016).

AGROSYSTEMS - EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE AGRO-SYSTÈMES

MAPPING EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE: COMPLEMENTARITY OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL MOSAICS

The North Atlantic region, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe are characterized by a predominance of arable crops such as cereals and oilseeds, alongside more intensive livestock systems. These regions, which concentrate Europe’s main production basins, play a central role in supplying both European and international markets. Wheat and maize are among the most traded agricultural commodities by volume, making these regions a cornerstone of European agricultural competitiveness and of the balance of its agricultural trade. Southern Europe, particularly the Mediterranean region, is characterized by agricultural systems more oriented toward permanent crops (vineyards, olive groves, fruit orchards), vegetable production, as well as more extensive livestock systems associated with grassland areas, with a few exceptions such as northern Italy. European data show a marked concentration of geographical indications in these regions: 85% of products are registered in eight Mediterranean countries (Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Greece, Cyprus - Annex 1), which show a strong presence of extensive and traditional agricultural systems (Flinzberger et al., 2022). In the face of a European water resource crisis, adaptation responses cannot be uniform. The diversity of European agricultural production implies highly differentiated constraints across regions and sectors, shaping their respective adaptive capacities: Rigidity in production performance within the field crop systems of Northern Europe. These models rely on high yields, a dependence on inputs, and strong integration into global markets. They are characterized by high fixed and variable costs that raise the cost threshold, leaving less room to absorb risks (yield losses, etc.)(EEA, 2026). In other words: adaptation efforts (such as reducing water inputs) entail production costs that are difficult to absorb economically within these systems. These regions are constrained by their ability to maintain high levels of productive performance in order to remain competitive in a context of increasing water stress. Structural rigidity in the South's production systems. The perennial nature of crops (orchards, vineyards) severely limits the possibilities for rapid conversion or reorganization of farming systems in response to shocks, particularly hydrological ones. AOP/IGP schemes, as quality labels guaranteeing economic added value, restrict certain levers for adaptation (strict geographical areas, cultivation practices, varieties, etc.). The production system around the Mediterranean is the result of long-term investments in agricultural capital with a strong socio-economic identity, reducing the flexibility of responses to the water crisis.

European agriculture relies on productive complementarity between the north and south of the continent, which forms the foundation of the European Union’s food sovereignty. In a context of growing water crisis, the adaptive capacities of European agrosystems are severely constrained by historical factors. Arable farming systems in Northern and Eastern Europe appear to face greater constraints on productive performance, while those in the South face constraints related to structural rigidity. To be effective, public water management policies must take these specific characteristics into account to protect the overall resilience of the European food system.

AGROSYSTEMS - EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE AGRO-SYSTÈMES

Europe shows a form of productive complementarity between the North and the South.

Understanding regional water constraints requires taking into account the theoretical water demand of agricultural systems, which depends directly on the local crop composition. Under equivalent climatic conditions, the structure of agricultural systems - through choices regarding land use and production specialization - largely determines the intensity of actual water stress and directly influences adaptation strategies.

SCORING - RELATIVE WATER REQUIREMENTS: Higher Lower

METHOD A crop classification based on the Eurostat typology was developed by assigning each crop a relative and theoretical water demand score ranging from 1 (lowest demand) to 5 (highest demand). For example, rice and citrus crops were assigned a score of 5, while permanent grasslands were assigned a score of 1. This score was attributed independently of external factors (climate, farming practices, etc.) and was intended solely to represent the crops’ “intrinsic” relative water requirements. Using regional NUTS2 crop composition data (see Map 1), a regional agricultural water demand index was calculated through a weighted average approach, multiplying the score of each crop category by its share of the regional Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA), and then aggregating the results. The resulting regional indices of theoretical water demand were subsequently classified into three categories — from lowest to highest — using the Jenks classification method. A key point in interpreting this map is that it reflects a theoretical and relative water demand derived from regional crop composition, rather than an indicator of actual water stress. * Statistical method designed to optimize classification by minimizing intra-class variance and maximizing interclass variance, thereby identifying natural breaks within the distribution of values.

The map reveals a north–south gradient in the theoretical water demand of agricultural systems, consistent with European bioclimatic gradients (Annex 1). However, it also highlights a disconnect between certain water- and climate-constrained regions that exhibit relatively high levels of agricultural water demand: In southern Spain, the regions of Murcia and Valencia have production systems dominated by fruit tree cultivation. In Andalusia, production is focused on subtropical fruit crops (avocados, mangoes) (Junquera et al., 2024). These crops are associated with a relatively high theoretical water demand, within a bioclimatic context classified as arid, desert, hot. In northern Greece, the production system focused on cotton - a crop of tropical origin - has a relatively high water demand within a arid, steppe, bioclimatic context. On the western coast of Italy, horticultural and arboricultural systems have a relatively high theoretical water demand within a temperate, dry and hot summer, bioclimatic context. While not constituting an indicator of proven vulnerability at this stage of the analysis, productivity and bioclimatic contrasts highlight a potential water vulnerability, which depends heavily on the ability of agricultural systems to secure their water supply, particularly through water management systems.

AGROSYSTEMS- WATER NEEDS AGRO-SYSTÈMES

MAPPING WATER REQUIREMENTS IN EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE: BIOCLIMATIC CONTRASTS

The technical capacity of regions to secure water supplies for crops is a key determinant of the resilience of agricultural systems in the face of water constraints. This indicator aims to estimate the relative level of development of these infrastructures at the regional level, which determines the ability of regions to mitigate water stress.

SCORE - IRRIGATION :

SCORE - RESERVOIRS

Higher

Higher

Lower

Lower

METHOD

METHOD

Data on irrigation infrastructure are drawn from the Eurostat “Irrigated Area” database (2023), expressed as a percentage of the UAA. This figure represents the area of crops that were actually irrigated. These shares are then classified into three categories (<5%, 5–10%, ≥10%), defined by comparing a Jenks classification with a quantile classification, in order to identify consistent thresholds while improving the readability of the map.

A NUTS2-level spatial aggregation of reservoirs was carried out. Reservoir volumes were estimated as depth multiplied by surface area and then normalised by the total NUTS2 regional area. Information on reservoir use (agricultural or nonagricultural) was also incorporated in order to classify regions into three categories. These classes were defined by comparing a Jenks natural breaks classification with a quantile-based classification, with the aim of identifying coherent thresholds while improving cartographic readability.

A South–North gradient in irrigated areas can be observed, consistent with Europe’s bioclimatic gradient (Annex 1). Southern regions, which are relatively more water-constrained in climatic terms, logically concentrate the highest levels of irrigated areas (Murcia, Valencia, Algarve, Po Valley, Greece). In Northern Europe, within temperate zones where water has historically not been a limiting factor, agriculture is more largely based on rainfed systems. It should be noted that across the EU, the vast majority of agricultural land depends on precipitation. However, relatively high irrigated areas are also observed in some more humid bioclimatic regions, particularly around the Benelux area. This pattern may be linked to a crop composition associated with relatively high theoretical water demand (root crops, maize).

AGROSYSTEMS - WATER INFRASTRUCTURE AGRO-SYSTÈMES

MAPPING OF WATER INFRASTRUCTURE: TECHNICAL CAPACITY TO SECURE WATER SUPPLIES

The map of reservoirs shows a more diffuse distribution of these infrastructures. A high concentration of reservoirs is observed in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, reflecting a technical capacity to secure water resources in a constrained bioclimatic context and agricultural systems with relatively high water demand. It should be noted that the presence of reservoirs does not systematically translate into an expansion of irrigated areas, and vice versa: In the Po Valley, a high level of irrigated areas is not associated with storage structures. The irrigation system in this region has historically relied on abundant surface water resources from the hydrographic network of the Po River and its tributaries, fed by snowmelt and precipitation in the Alpine ranges (Rotiroti, M et al. 2019). According to the EEA, snowfall is expected to decrease in Central and Southern Europe, and snow cover is expected to decrease across the entire European continent. Across the Benelux region, irrigated areas also tend to have limited storage infrastructure. In a relatively humid bioclimatic context with historically consistent water availability, agricultural systems have traditionally been structured not around securing water resources, but around managing excess water. It is estimated that approximately 34% of agricultural land in northwestern Europe is artificially drained (Gramlich et al., 2018). In several regions of Eastern Europe, developed storage infrastructure is observed without a corresponding expansion of irrigated areas. These regions have inherited largescale investments in hydraulic infrastructure, including dams and irrigation networks. Post-socialist decollectivisation led to a sudden breakdown of organisational and governance structures, resulting in significant deterioration of these networks and substantial losses within the water distribution system. In the absence of structured irrigation networks, a shift towards individual solutions has emerged, particularly small autonomous boreholes tapping into groundwater reservoirs (Lancu et al., 2025). The “storage capital” of these regions represents a latent opportunity, but its reactivation requires a complete overhaul of the distribution networks.

The disconnect between storage capacity and irrigated areas highlights structural vulnerabilities in water resource management across many European regions. In particular, this may reflect a dependence on precipitation and/or direct withdrawals from natural sources (surface or groundwater) and/or a lack of flexibility during periods of water stress. Water security for agricultural systems relies on a functional link between storage infrastructure and efficient irrigation, the importance of which is growing in the context of increasing climate variability.

AGROSYSTEMS - WATER INFRASTRUCTURE AGRO-SYSTÈMES

Regions such as Poland, Hungary, and Romania are characterized by relatively limited irrigated areas despite a relatively high theoretical demand for water. These regions are of particular concern in terms of water vulnerability, as the combination of relatively high agricultural water demand and limited irrigation capacity can increase the sensitivity of production systems to climate-related risks.

European agriculture relies on the productive complementarity of its regions, rooted in historical factors that have shaped their territorial, social, and economic identities. Against a backdrop of growing water stress, these systems face distinct constraints: structural rigidity in agricultural systems in the south, and competitive rigidity in arable farming in northern and eastern Europe. Some systems are also subject to natural bioclimatic constraints, sometimes exacerbated by crop patterns with relatively high water demands. Furthermore, the observed disconnect between storage capacity and irrigation networks reveals structural vulnerabilities in several European regions regarding the effective security of agricultural water resources.

Map: Base map showing the main crop patterns in NUTS 2 regions. Farm Europe.

1) The Iberian Peninsula and Southern Italy: a high dependence on water: agriculture with relatively high theoretical water demand (orchards, horticulture), which relies on a secured water supply thanks to highly developed irrigation and storage infrastructure. In a semi-arid to hot desert bioclimatic context, these regions raise questions about the structural sustainability of this model. 2) The Po Valley and the Benelux region: an irrigation system that relies on regional water resources. These agricultural sectors have relatively high theoretical water demands: rice, corn, and soybeans in the Po Valley, and root crops in the Benelux region. They are marked by a mismatch between a relatively welldeveloped irrigation network and a lack of proportionate water storage infrastructure. The system relies heavily on “water perfusion” based on local resources (surface and groundwater), which raises questions about its long-term sustainability in the context of climate change.

3) Eastern Europe: a mismatch between primary water infrastructure and the secondary network. Agricultural systems are mainly oriented towards cereals and oilseeds, with relatively moderate to high water demand (Poland, Hungary, Romania), within generally favourable bioclimatic conditions. Reservoirs are present but disconnected from agricultural use, with a degraded and poorly efficient irrigation network. 4) Southern France: agriculture with a relatively lower theoretical water demand (vineyards, grasslands, legumes, sunflowers) that benefits from relatively welldeveloped irrigation and storage infrastructure, within a temperate bioclimatic context. This region appears to exhibit a relative balance between water demand and supply in its agrosystems. The question concerns the efficiency of these systems and their scale particularly around the Mediterranean - in the context of climate change.

AGROSYSTEMS - REGIONAL PATTERNS AGRO-SYSTÈMES

AGROSYSTEM DIMENSION: REGIONAL PATTERNS

This first aspect of the study establishes that European agrosystems do not follow a uniform water management model, but are structured according to distinct regional configurations, resulting from the interplay between crop composition, relative water demand, and the capacity of water infrastructure. While no immediate signs of crisis emerge at this stage of the analysis, certain regional patterns reveal systemic vulnerabilities: Agrosystems rigidified by structural and economic constraints, limiting their ability to adapt to various climatic pressures; Agrosystems with high water dependency in constrained bioclimatic contexts, raising questions about their long-term sustainability; Agrosystems relying on systems with limited water storage capacity, which limits their ability to mitigate hydrological variations and raises questions about the evolution of regional water resources in the context of climate change; Agrosystems with low utilization of existing water infrastructure, calling into question the overall efficiency of the water management model; These initial findings thus call for an analysis of the actual resilience of agricultural systems.

AGRO-SYSTÈMES AGROSYSTEMS - OVERVIEW

Agrosystems

Soil moisture is an Essential Climate Variable and a key determinant of agricultural productivity. It influences soil biological processes, the regulation of water flows, and the resilience of agrosystems to droughts.

SCORING - SOIL MOISTURE: Higher Lower

SCORING - SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY: Lower Higher

METHOD

METHOD

The soil moisture data are sourced from the European Drought Observatory (EDO): Soil Moisture Index (SMI, GeoTIFF data for 2020–2025). These data were averaged over the summer period (decades MaySeptember 2020-2025), then restricted to areas comprising at least 25% agricultural land using a mask based on CORINE Land Cover* data. At the NUTS 2 level, the indicator, designed to characterize soil moisture conditions, is based on the average SMI and its coefficient of variation (CV). The SMI, ranging from 0 to 1, corresponds to soil moisture normalized between the wilting point (0) and field capacity (1). It is interpreted here according to agronomic thresholds: ≥ 0.6 (favorable conditions), 0.4–0.6 (intermediate), and < 0.4 (unfavorable). A lower average SMI indicates more unfavorable water conditions, while a high and homogeneous average reflects more favorable conditions. Spatial variability is interpreted using a CV threshold of 15% (Wilding threshold); high variability triggers a downscaling to reflect subregional disparities that may mask more localized water stress conditions. A lower score thus reflects more unfavorable water conditions/constraints, while a higher score indicates more favorable conditions.

The soil moisture anomaly data are sourced from the EDO database: Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA, GeoTIFF data for 2020–2025). They were averaged over the summer period (the May-September 20202025 decades) and then restricted to agricultural areas*. Negative anomalies (SMA) correspond to conditions of relative drought compared to the reference period (1995–2024). At the NUTS2 level, the indicator aims to characterize recent water stress in agricultural soils; it combines the frequency of negative anomalies (SMA ≤ -1) × the absolute value of their average intensity. The three-class map classification is performed using the natural break method (Jenks). Since the indicator is constructed solely from negative anomalies, it is bounded between 0 and -1, with no interpretation favorable to water conditions. A higher score reflects more frequent and more intense episodes of water stress, while a lower score indicates a lower recurrence and/or intensity of these anomalies over the period considered compared to historical values. It should be noted that a lower score cannot therefore be interpreted as a favorable situation, but only as a relatively less pronounced trend in water stress over the period considered.

AGROECOSYSTEMS - SOIL MOISTURE

SOIL MOISTURE MAPPING: EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE CAUGHT IN A VICE

In the Mediterranean arc, particularly in Spain and Italy, soil moisture levels are structurally low (relatively low SMI, lower SMA). This situation stems from a form of “normalization of aridity”: since the soils are persistently dry, summer variations appear mechanically more limited in relative terms. This stability at relatively low levels is a major structural constraint. In Spain, “the use and management of water for irrigation is a fundamental element of its agriculture; Spanish agricultural activity is inconceivable without it” (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food, Spain). In the temperate plains of northern Europe (Paris Basin, Benelux, Germany, Poland), by contrast, historically wetter soils exhibit more pronounced summer anomalies, showing increased sensitivity to stress episodes via a relative water shock phenomenon: the higher the baseline, the more abrupt the deviation from normal. Some regions combine relatively low summer moisture levels with significant anomalies, suggesting a transition toward soil water deficit. The Rhine Rift Valley and Southeastern Europe exhibit relatively low soil moisture levels associated with marked anomalies, within historically more favorable bioclimatic contexts. This trend is a warning sign regarding the risk of a shift from short-term variability to a more structural trend toward drying. In Scandinavia (Sweden, Finland), relatively low summer soil moisture in a historically more favorable climate is occurring within a context of significant climate transformation linked to Arctic amplification - faster warming in high latitudes is leading to early snowmelt and increased evapotranspiration (Rantanen & al, 2022; Lian & al, 2020).

In recent years, virtually the entire continent has been affected by summer soil drought, whether structural or linked to anomalies. A cross-analysis of soil moisture indicators identifies areas of water vulnerability and reveals an agricultural Europe caught in a vise: Southern Europe is experiencing structural drying, with soils having reached a structurally low summer moisture level. Northern Europe is experiencing a shock of variability, where systems historically characterized by high hydrological stability are now more sensitive to climatic fluctuations, leading to more pronounced summer anomalies. “aridity is currently highest in the southernmost regions of southern Europe, and generally decreases towards the north. Aridity is projected to increase throughout Europe, without the overall spatial pattern changing. The largest increases are expected just north of the current aridity hotspots (i.e. in the northern part of the Iberian Peninsula, Turkey and part of the Balkans), where aridity index values could double during the 21st century.” (EEA, Wet and dry aridity, 2021). In this context, maintaining stable soil moisture is a critical factor in the resilience of agroecosystems. Soil moisture plays a major role in climate regulation through evapotranspiration, which helps cool the atmosphere. Its degradation reduces this regulatory mechanism and promotes positive feedback loops, in which soil drying amplifies heat waves, which in turn exacerbate the drying.

AGROECOSYSTEMS - SOIL MOISTURE

The results show that soil moisture conditions generally follow a north-south gradient, consistent with the bioclimatic conditions of the regions (Anne 1). Summer moisture anomalies exhibit a reverse gradient. This contrast can be explained by the relative sensitivity of water systems: structurally dry regions exhibit a ceiling effect for negative anomalies, whereas more humid regions show a greater amplitude of deviations from the mean.

This indicator is designed to assess the health of agroecosystems by analyzing how water conditions influence summer crop productivity. It allows for the observation of how agricultural systems respond to water stress and helps identify regions where agroecosystem functioning has deteriorated.

SCORING– PRODUCTIVITY ANOMALY Lower Higher

METHOD The FAPAR (Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) anomaly data are sourced from the EDO database (FAPAR Anomaly, GeoTIFF data 2020/2025). FAPAR ranges from 0 (no absorption) to 1 (maximum absorption). It is used to monitor the impacts of water stress on plants due to drought, on vegetation growth and productivity. The anomalies correspond to the deviation of FAPAR from a reference period (2012–2020). The FAPAR Anomaly data were averaged over the summer period (May–September 2020/2025), then restricted to agricultural areas using a Corine Land Cover agricultural mask. At the NUTS2 level, the indicator is based on the proportion of area with a negative anomaly (FAPAR < 0) multiplied by the average intensity of these anomalies. Scores are classified using a hybrid approach combining natural breaks (Jenks) and quantiles, into three classes. A higher score reflects a greater decline in crop productivity, and vice versa. Note that since the indicator is constructed solely from negative anomalies, it is bounded between 0 and -2, with no favorable interpretation. A lower score therefore cannot be interpreted as a favorable situation, but only as a relatively less pronounced anomaly over the period in question.

In line with structurally low summer soil moisture levels, the Mediterranean region shows a relatively significant impact on crop productivity. Southeastern Europe appears to be the most affected region, with crops exhibiting high sensitivity to water conditions. This finding may be linked to a decline in soil moisture in agroecosystems that have historically been less adapted to such anomalies. Certain regions, such as the Benelux countries and southwestern Germany, show increased crop sensitivity to soil moisture anomalies, even though average moisture levels remain relatively more favorable. This pattern suggests a functional weakening of agroecosystems in the face of summer water anomalies. Some regions are characterized by a partial decoupling between water stress and productivity. In Spain (Murcia and Valencia) as well as in Alsace, the impacts on productivity appear relatively less pronounced despite relatively unfavorable soil moisture conditions. This may be linked to a higher level of development of water infrastructure, particularly irrigation systems, which can help mitigate the effects of water stress. In Poland and northern France, the impacts on productivity remain more moderate for now, but soil moisture anomalies suggest an emerging water deficit, indicating a potential risk of future decline in agricultural performance if these trends are confirmed. There is a decline in crop productivity in European agroecosystems, due to structural and emerging water constraints.

AGRO-SYSTÈMES AGROECOSYSTEMS - CROP PRODUCTIVITY

MAPPING PRODUCTIVITY ANOMALIES: INCREASING SENSITIVITY OF CROPS

Europe is caught in a vise between structural summer water constraints in the south and increasing variability shocks in the north. This dynamic results in a decline in the crop productivity of agroecosystems. Maintaining favorable soil moisture is a critical determinant of European agricultural resilience, the degradation of which can trigger feedback loops that amplify the effects of climate change.

Map: Base map showing the scoring of summer anomalies in crop productivity for the 2020–2025 period. Farm Europe.

1) Southeastern Europe: A critical deterioration of agroecosystems. All indicators (SMI, SMA, FAPAR) suggest that agroecosystems are in poor hydrological health. This finding is all the more alarming given that the agrosystem indicators for some of these regions point to a production model with relatively high water demand, yet lacking relatively developed irrigation infrastructure capable of meeting summer crop needs. These observations reflect a trend of water stress corresponding to a critical transition phase, in which a structural deterioration of agroecosystems could set in if rapid adaptation measures for agrosystems are not implemented. 2) Benelux and south-western Germany show limited resilience of agroecosystems to emerging water stress. Crop productivity, particularly for waterdemanding systems, appears to be affected by a summer soil moisture deficit (SMA). It should be noted that the Benelux region has relatively well-developed irrigation infrastructure, which does not appear to effectively mitigate the impacts of water stress on crops.

3)Eastern Spain shows a decoupling, under climatic constraints, between water stress and agricultural productivity. Indicators suggest poor soil water health, particularly linked to a structural moisture deficit (SMI). However, a disconnect is observed between soil water status and crop productivity, despite crops having relatively high water demand. The level of development of water infrastructure (irrigation and storage capacity) may partly explain this decoupling. This raises questions about the long-term viability of this system within a bioclimatic context characterised as arid.

4) Southern Spain, Southern France, and Italy: structural soil drying. Indicators point to agroecosystems in poor hydrological health, linked to a structural soil moisture deficit (SMI). Like eastern Spain, these regions are characterized by a relatively high level of development in water infrastructure (irrigation and storage capacity). However, no decoupling between soil water status and crop productivity is observed. 5) Northern France and North-Eastern Europe host agroecosystems that are still relatively less affected but increasingly under pressure. Indicators suggest that summer water conditions remain relatively favourable for crops, but also point to a growing soil moisture deficit that needs to be addressed.

AGRO-SYSTÈMES AGROECOSYSTEMS - REGIONAL PATTERNS

AGROECOSYSTEM DIMENSION: REGIONAL PATTERNS

An analysis of agroecosystem indicators suggests that nearly no European region is currently entirely free from signs of water degradation. Agricultural water vulnerability in Europe does not stem from a single condition, but from distinct recent trends: Zones of structural drying, characterised by persistently low soil moisture levels, reflecting an established water constraint. Zones of low resilience, where hydrological anomalies are already translating into measurable impacts on crop productivity. Zones of emerging water pressure, where anomalies do not yet result in marked productivity losses, but soil indicators suggest a potential onset of moisture decline. Zones in critical transition towards persistent drying, where the combined unfavourable signal from the three indicators suggests a potential hydrological tipping point in agroecosystems. Selon l’EEA “Soils — one of the core buffers for productivity — are also under growing pressure (...) pressures are driving widespread soil degradation, weakening the soil functions essential for productivity, water regulation, biodiversity and climate resilience .” “It is estimated that over 60% of European soils are now unhealthy, and the estimated cost of this degradation in the EU is EUR 40.9-72.7 billion per year (from erosion, contamination, nutrient and carbon losses, compaction and sealing). These costs may be around twice as high since the assessments do not include impacts that are not currently accounted for (e.g. biodiversity loss, floods/droughts, off-site erosion and health effects).” (EEA, 2026).

AGROECOSYSTEMS - OVERVIEW

Agroecosystems

The objective of this indicator is to identify the emergence of regional climate signals, in order to detect changes in precipitation patterns, whether deficit or excess, and whether occurring in summer, winter, or on an annual basis. As indicated in the Methodology section, the seasonal precipitation anomaly indicator is based on the identification of a background climate signal over the 2020–2025 period. Its objective is to reflect recent climate trends in order to better understand regional water constraints.

SCORING - SUMMER PRECIPITATION SIGNAL: Higher

Lower

SCORING -WINTER PRECIPITATION SIGNAL: Higher

Lower

MÉTHODE The data on precipitation anomalies (SPI) are sourced from the EDO database (SPI-6, GeoTIFF data for 2020– 2025). The SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) highlights anomalies (deviations from the 1991–2020 longterm average) in total observed precipitation for a given location and accumulation period. The magnitude of the anomaly measures the intensity of the episodes—wet (positive anomaly) or dry (negative anomaly). Here, the SPI-6 September and SPI-6 March 2020/2025 data were used: SPI-6 September aggregates precipitation from April to September, thus capturing summer anomalies; SPI-6 March aggregates precipitation from October to March, thus capturing winter anomalies. The data were aggregated using a NUTS 2-level average. The SPI is used to identify drought episodes (thresholds below -1). Here, aggregating the data using a multiyear average (5 years) results in statistical smoothing, which absorbs interannual volatility to isolate a more structural “climate drift.” The indicator does not aim here to identify drought thresholds but rather the direction of a “climate drift” signal. A lower score suggests a deficit signal, a higher score an excess signal, relative to the reference period.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES - PRECIPITATION

MAPPING PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES: TRENDS IN RECENT CLIMATE SIGNALS

Particularly alarming trends are emerging in Southern Europe, where annual deficit signals have been observed in recent years (Southern Spain, Southern Italy, Southern France, and the Balkans). “In southern Europe, annual precipitation and summer rainfall are projected to decrease, whereas aridity, droughts and fire hazards are all likely to increase.” (EEA, What will the future bring when it comes to climate hazards?, 2021). Some regions show a signal of relatively wet summer precipitation anomalies. It should be noted that these regions are subject to meteorological phenomena that may partly explain these summer excess signals: The Po Valley is subject to convective storms associated with extreme weather conditions, particularly in spring and summer (Davolio et al., 2009). This vast valley is surrounded on three sides by chains of mountains (Annex 4), which promotes the accumulation of warm, humid air from the Adriatic Sea; this air undergoes forced uplift, leading to massive condensation and intense precipitation. In the regions of Murcia and Valencia, the warming of the Mediterranean Sea is intensifying rainfall events. In late summer, DANA events (pockets of cold air that break away from the circulation associated with polar air currents) cause a shock between cold air and warm, humid air from the Mediterranean Sea, triggering thunderstorms that dump torrential rain over a limited area, resulting in record rainfall totals. It should be noted that these climatic phenomena generate extreme precipitation, inducing a statistical bias in cumulative precipitation totals, masking a radically different agronomic reality of the soils: water runs off massively without infiltrating, leaving the soils in a state of structural drought, as evidenced by the summer soil moisture map in these regions. The increase in extreme precipitation does not resolve the water stress in agroecosystems. In Central Europe, signs of winter deficits are observed, a key period for water recharge, during which precipitation replenishes soil water stores and contributes to groundwater recharge.

Europe is not a homogeneous climate bloc; regions are exposed to contrasting climate signals: some regions face challenges related to the resaisonalization of water supply, while others show particularly alarming signs of annual precipitation deficits.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES - PRECIPITATION

The results highlight a seasonal contrast: at the European scale, there is generally a relatively deficient precipitation signal during summer, while the winter period tends to show a relatively positive signal, particularly in Northern Europe. These recent climate signals are relatively consistent with climate projections “Observations show a seasonal and regional pattern consistent with projected increases in winter precipitation in Northern Europe. A decrease in precipitation is projected for summer in the Mediterranean, extending to northern regions. Extreme precipitation and flash flooding are projected to increase at global warming levels exceeding 1.5°C in all regions except the Mediterranean. (high confidence)” (IPCC AR6 2021). These signals suggest a structural challenge for agricultural systems: the reseasonalization of water supply, that is, the ability to mobilize or store winter surpluses to secure water supplies during periods of summer deficits.

The objective of this indicator is to assess the climatic balance of regions. While precipitation anomalies allow the identification of seasonal deficit or surplus signals, it is the long-term comparison between cumulative precipitation and evapotranspiration demand that reveals more structural hydrological imbalances.

SCORING - CLIMATE ASSESSMENT : Higher

Lower

METHOD The data comes from the EDO database: SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, GeoTIFF data for 2020–2025) to measure a cumulative anomaly in the water balance. The SPEI is an indicator of the system’s “thirst”; it measures the balance between supply (precipitation) and demand (evapotranspiration), and quantifies the statistical deviation from the region’s historical balance. The SPEI-48 March 2025 was used here, corresponding to a 48-month (4-year) accumulation period, which aggregates the cumulative water balance from April 2021 to March 2025. This cutoff point in March corresponds to the end of the winter recharge period, thus providing a long-term view of water resources. The data were processed using spatial aggregation (averaging) at the NUTS 2 level. The classification thresholds used are those of the EDO. A lower score suggests a deficit trend in the regional climate balance relative to the historical average, and vice versa.

Southeastern Europe, particularly Romania, shows a marked structural water deficit, indicating a long-term deterioration of its climatic balance. This signal must be interpreted alongside negative annual precipitation anomalies, suggesting repeated insufficiency of water inputs relative to evaporative demand. This implies a limited capacity for the replenishment of water reservoirs (soils and aquifers), and therefore increased exposure and sensitivity to water stress episodes. In Mediterranean regions, hydrological deficits may appear less extreme in relative terms, as they occur within a climate system that is already structurally water-constrained. In North-Eastern Europe, particularly Poland, negative summer precipitation signals appear to affect the long-term climatic balance. The Benelux region shows positive anomalies in the climatic balance over the considered period. This pattern can be linked to relatively surplus winter precipitation, which appears to partially offset deficits observed during the summer period. .

While the results reveal regional variations, they highlight an imbalance in the climate balance across a large part of Europe, whether in deficit or surplus.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES - CLIMATE BALANCE AGRO-SYSTÈMES

MAPPING PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES: CLIMATE BALANCE

Beyond precipitation totals, the actual availability of water resources is a key determinant of agro-ecosystem water health. The concept of precipitation efficiency is central: efficient precipitation refers to rainfall that infiltrates the soil and contributes to the recharge of soil moisture and deep water reservoirs. A precipitation balance may appear positive while masking severe water stress. In such cases, overly intense rainfall events promote rapid surface runoff toward drainage networks, bypassing soil infiltration and preventing the replenishment of both soils and deeper reservoirs. SCORING - RAINFALL EVENTS: More extreme Less extreme

METHOD The indicator used is the maximum cumulative precipitation over five consecutive days (Rx5day), derived from the European Environment Agency (EEA) databases. This index does not measure total rainfall, but rather the potential for extreme precipitation. A higher value reflects a more extreme precipitation regime, which is less efficient and poses a greater risk of erosion and runoff. Conversely, a low value indicates a less intense regime, and therefore a more efficient one. Unlike previous indicators based on historical observations (EDO), this index is based on climate projections. It is calculated using a set of nine multi-model simulations (EUROCORDEX).

At the European scale, a clear North–South gradient can be observed in the intensity of extreme precipitation events. Southern Europe experiences a precipitation regime characterized by more extreme events. These regions face the phenomenon of water inefficiency: the intensity of rainfall events exceeds the soil’s infiltration capacity, limiting recharge of deeper soil layers and leading to massive runoff and increased erosion. This phenomenon is exacerbated by a feedback loop with soil conditions: prolonged water stress can lead to partial hydrophobicity or the formation of crusts, which further accentuate runoff. As indicated by the agroecosystem dimension maps, this self-reinforcing process transforms a theoretically beneficial water supply into a risk vector (erosion, nutrient loss). While Northern Europe appears relatively spared from such episodes, “The frequency of extreme precipitation has increased in Europe as a whole since the 1950s, as well as in northern and central Europe. Projections suggest that there will be large increases in northern Europe and smaller increases in central Europe. No significant changes have been observed in or projected for southern Europe.” (EEA, Wet and dry - heavy precipitation and river floods, 2021).

Extreme rainfall events pose a major challenge for European agriculture, as they disrupt the recharge of soils and deep aquifers. These phenomena are becoming more frequent across Europe.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES - EXTREME PRECIPITATION AGROÉCOSYSTÈMES

MAPPING EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: EFFICIENCY OF THE PRECIPITATION REGIME

Groundwater aquifers act as “water lungs”; they play a fundamental regulatory role in the water cycle (Annex 5). Groundwater aquifers represent essential resilience capital for European agroecosystems. Consequently, their degradation is a major warning sign, which may reflect the cumulative effects of climate change and/or systemic resource management that has reached its limits. SCORING - QUANTITATIVE STATUS OF GROUNDWATER: Better

Worst

METHOD The data comes from the European WISEWFD (Water Framework Directive) database: WFD2022 GroundWaterBody. An initial NUTS 2 administrative breakdown of the aquifers was used to determine the proportion (%) of the area classified as being at quantitative risk by region. The regions were divided into three categories using Jenks’ natural thresholds. A relatively poor score suggests structural degradation of groundwater reserves, indicating a lasting disruption of the regional water balance. A relatively good score indicates that groundwater resources are relatively well preserved.

In Spain and southern Italy, a depletion of groudwaters. Groundwater reserves show a relatively significant deterioration in terms of quantity, a sign of structural depletion of the regional hydrological system.This is an alarming observation for these regions, which are seeing a decline in all their agroecosystem and hydro-climatic indicators. In the Po Valley, groundwater levels are in good quantitative condition. A surprising observation given that agroecosystem indicators point to agricultural systems under severe water stress—degraded soils, weakened productivity, and high dependence on irrigation without associated storage systems. This can be explained by a combination of several specific recharge mechanisms: favorable hydrological inflow linked to snowmelt and glacial melt from the Alpine massifs; a deep sedimentary aquifer with high storage capacity; and diffuse recharge induced by irrigation practices. The Po Valley is an example of a hydrological system modified by irrigation, where networks of canals are used to channel water from rivers and lakes and distribute it to fields via surface irrigation. While “flood irrigation methods are generally considered inefficient, leading to a waste of the resource” (EC), in the Po Valley, a large portion of this water infiltrates and recharges the underlying aquifers, constituting one of the main sources of groundwater recharge. Studies suggest that abandoning surface irrigation in favor of more efficient irrigation methods (such as drip irrigation) would reduce recharge, jeopardize spring ecosystems, and threaten current groundwater withdrawal rates (Rotiroti, M et al. 2019).

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES- GROUNDWATER AQUIFERS AGROÉCOSYSTÈMES

MAPPING GROUNDWATER STATUS: PROTECTING THE WATER CYCLE

In the Paris Basin and Benelux region, groundwater levels show quantitative degradation. Climate balances, however, suggest surplus conditions in recent years, particularly in winter, the main period for groundwater recharge. These observations can be explained by several factors: overexploitation, inertia, disruption of the hydrological cycle, poor recharge, etc.... In southwestern France, groundwaters are in relatively poor quantitative status. These regions are generally exposed to episodes of extreme precipitation that can limit the efficiency of aquifer recharge. In the Languedoc-Roussillon and Midi-Pyrénées regions, the poor quantitative status of aquifers can be linked to negative climate balances (deficits in annual and summer precipitation). In the Aquitaine region, despite relatively excess climate conditions, aquifers show a poor quantitative status. Studies measuring the impact of climate change in southwestern France predict declines in groundwater recharge of between 30 and 50% (compared to 10–25% in France). “With rising temperatures and thus increased evaporation, projections do indeed agree on an increase in soil drying linked to climate change. However, aquifers recharge when well-saturated soils allow water to infiltrate deeply. Thus, drier soils, or soils that are dry more often, lead throughout France to a decrease in groundwater recharge from precipitation. The relatively moderate decline in precipitation, on the other hand, will not have a major impact.” (BRGM France).

Groundwater aquifers act as natural "water lungs", playing a fundamental role in the resilience of European agroecosystems; their degradation signals a major disruption in regional hydrological cycles. The specific case of surface irrigation in the Po Valley, which helps maintain the balance of the local hydrological cycle, demonstrates that the good quantitative status of groundwater goes beyond a simple accounting of water volumes. It depends on the overall balance of the hydrological cycle, which is influenced by numerous factors (agricultural practices, soil health, precipitation patterns, etc.). Agricultural transitions toward greater resilience in the face of the European water crisis require shifting the focus from the individual field to the broader water cycle. Public policies must recognize that agricultural and European water vulnerability is a structural challenge that far exceeds the capacity of individual farmers to address it alone.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES- GROUNDWATER AQUIFERS AGROÉCOSYSTÈMES

In the plains of Poland and eastern Germany, groundwater bodies are in relatively poor quantitative condition. This observation can be linked to signs of summer precipitation deficits that affect the water balance and soil moisture. The water management system in these regions has historically relied on drainage systems designed to accelerate the flow of water from wetlands to surface waters (Annex 3). Agricultural drainage can significantly lower groundwater levels and affect the hydrology of the watershed. By reducing freshwater storage in the soil, these systems can contribute to the transfer of nutrients and pollutants into waterways, promoting eutrophication and the degradation of water quality. (Addisu Yimer, 2023). While agricultural drainage systems have enabled the expansion of cultivated areas and improved their productivity, in the current climate context, these systems can now create a hydrological short-circuit that is detrimental to agroecosystems. Agricultural practices and infrastructure can improve the integration of these agricultural systems with hydrological cycles.

To shed light on local dynamics in resource management, an indicator of human pressure is needed. Although this indicator is not directly linked to agricultural activities, when used during the summer months (July–September), it provides an overview of the regional balance in resource management during a critical agricultural period. SCORING - PRESSURE ON WATER RESOURCES:

Lower

Higher

METHOD The data comes from the European Environment Agency (EEA) database: Water Exploitation Index (WE+). This index measures the pressure exerted by human activities on a region’s renewable water resources. It is expressed as a percentage (%) and represents the ratio of net consumption to renewable resources (the sum of water entering the territory via transboundary rivers and water generated locally by precipitation). The data used are third-quarter (Q3) averages from 2019 to 2023, at the subwatershed level (SubUnits). According to the EEA’s classification, a relatively high score indicates a risk of scarcity and unsustainable use of resources.

The results indicate severe summer water shortages in Spain, Italy, and Greece. “Water scarcity is prevalent all-year-round in southern Europe, with around 30% of the population in areas with permanent water stress and up to 70% in areas with seasonal summer stress.” “In general, water scarcity conditions intensify between April and September in most countries. This is caused by a combination of dry weather, reduced flows and increased abstractions for irrigated agriculture, tourism and recreation, and other socio-economic activities during these periods.” (EEA - Water scarcity conditions in Europe, 2025). In the Mediterranean arc, although no direct link can be strictly established via the WEI+ between overexploitation and agriculture (as the sources of water withdrawals are not detailed), these results align with the existence of water - intensive agrosystems that are heavily dependent on irrigation within a structurally water-deficient hydroclimatic context. In Romania, the WEI+ reaches high levels during the summer. Inefficient irrigation infrastructure and the seasonality of surface flows could partly explain these observations. Water distribution network losses are estimated at over 30% in Eastern and Southern European countries (Bulgaria, Italy, Malta, Romania, Slovakia), compared to an EU average of 25%. For reference, countries in Northern and Western Europe, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, record losses of less than 10% (Díaz-Cano et al., 2025). Northern France and the Benelux countries also show overexploitation of resources during the summer months.

AGRO-SYSTÈMES HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES- WATER EXPLOITATION

CARTOGRAPHIE DE PRESSION SUR LA RESSOURCE : WATER EXPLOITATION INDEX

It is important to note that a region’s water stress score (WEI+) may appear artificially low (favorable) due to the presence of major river systems, whose massive volumes “dilute” the impact of water withdrawals.

Chart: Total water abstraction by source, averaged over several decades (2000–2009; 2010–2019) and 2020–2023 in the 27 EU Member States. Source: EEA, 2025.

Summer pressures on water resources are particularly severe in southern Europe. Summer water withdrawals are gradually shifting toward groundwater, a more “stable” source than surface water, which is subject to seasonal fluctuations. This short-term solution weakens the entire hydrological cycle in the long term. “Between 2000-2023, total freshwater abstraction in the European Union decreased by 14%, mainly due to a decline in water abstraction for electricity cooling. However, total water abstraction has remained broadly stable since 2010.” (EEA, 2025). The issue of water resources is not limited to the quantity of water abstracted, but also to the timing, location, and source of these withdrawals. Imbalances between water supply and demand will continue to grow in Europe as a result of climate change. Water management policies must enable us to anticipate seasonal pressures while preserving groundwater resources.

AGRO-SYSTÈMES HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES- WATER EXPLOITATION

There is an overlap between regions with quantitatively degraded groundwater bodies and the overexploitation of renewable water resources. In other words, areas where groundwater bodies are under stress often correspond to those where summer withdrawals exceed the natural replenishment capacity of water resources. This observation can be partly explained by the high seasonal variability of surface water. In many European regions, river flows and surface water availability decrease significantly during the summer, due to the combined effects of reduced precipitation, increased evapotranspiration, and reduced soil recharge. However, this period coincides with a peak in demand (agricultural and tourism activities). This temporal mismatch between supply and demand drives users to rely more heavily on groundwater, which is generally more stable and available during dry periods. “From 2000-2023, groundwater abstraction in the agriculture sector increased 52%, driven by rising demand in southern, western, and eastern Europe, while surface water abstraction decreased by 13%. ” (EEA, 2025). “In the most recent period (2020-2023), groundwater accounted for 63% of total public water supply and 28% of agricultural water demand in the EU-27.” (EEA, 2025).

Europe faces diverse but converging hydrological challenges that are leading to an imbalance in the water cycle. The issue of the water crisis is not simply a matter of balancing water volumes (precipitation versus consumption), but rather of maintaining the balance of the hydrological cycle, with the quantitative status of groundwater reserves serving as the primary indicator of this balance.

Map: Base map showing the quantitative groundwater status assessment. Farm Europe.

1) Southern Italy is experiencing a severe water shortage. All indicators related to water resources are in the red. The region is observing a climate signal pointing to an annual precipitation deficit, along with the depletion of deep reservoirs. Water resources are being overexploited. 2) Northern Italy: a still relatively favorable water endowment. Indicators suggest that the region is not affected by cumulative water deficits, but rather by episodes of extreme precipitation. The region’s orographic and sedimentary context provides a relatively dense network of surface and underground waterways, contributing to a relatively high water availability. Surface irrigation systems play a key role and, paradoxically through their water consumption, help sustain groundwater recharge by promoting exchange between surface and groundwater aquifers. “The summer of 2022 in northern Italy was extremely dry, jeopardizing water supplies for households, agriculture, and hydroelectric power plants. The drought continued through the winter of 2022/2023, with a snowpack deficit in the Alps reaching up to 63%.” “In May 2023, nearly half of the average annual precipitation fell in northern Italy—an event estimated to occur once every 200 years. This rainfall caused widespread and devastating flooding” (EEA, Europe’s state of water 2024). 3) In Spain, water resources are structurally depleted. Indicators point to chronic overexploitation of water resources across the country, which has depleted deep aquifers due to water deficits. In southern Spain, climate data indicate an annual precipitation deficit.

4) Southwest France: towards water resource depletion. Groundwater reserves, which are in relatively poor quantitative condition, suggest an imbalance in the hydrological cycle. Studies predict a decline in groundwater recharge linked to soil drying in these regions. Climate indicators are particularly alarming in the Languedoc-Roussillon region, where annual precipitation deficits have been observed in recent years, in contrast to other areas of southwestern France where winter precipitation is increasing.

5) In the Benelux region and northern France, a summer imbalance and overexploitation of the resource. Climate indicators suggest a summer rainfall deficit. This summer deficit, combined with overexploitation of the resource, is leading to the depletion of groundwater aquifers. 6) Northeastern Europe: summer imbalances and disruptions of the hydrological cycle. Climate indicators suggest a summer rainfall deficit that negatively affects the region’s climate balance. Groundwater aquifers are in relatively poor quantitative condition. The agricultural drainage systems in these regions may exacerbate these effects by short-circuiting the recharge of soils and aquifers. 7) Romania: a severe annual water deficit. Hydroclimatic indicators suggest an annual rainfall deficit that is having a very negative impact on the region’s water balance. Groundwater aquifers have not yet been affected by this climate imbalance; it is crucial to preserve this water reservoir, which is essential to the resilience of ecosystems, particularly agricultural ones.

AGRO-SYSTÈMES HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES - REGIONAL PATTERNS

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCE DIMENSION: REGIONAL PATTERNS

Europe cannot be viewed as a collection of regions all affected uniformly by climate change. The issue of water resources is not limited to deficits in cumulative precipitation in southern Europe, but rather to various water imbalances (seasonal, annual, deficits, surpluses, extreme events, etc.) that affect all major European regions. According to the EEA (Europe’s State of Water 2024) “reducing water consumption” is one of the main pillars of European resilience in the face of the water crisis. While reducing water consumption is a key focus, the challenges of water management in agriculture cannot be based solely on simple volumetric accounting balances but must necessarily be integrated into a broader hydrological cycle. Agricultural water should no longer be viewed as a mere consumable production input, but as a flow whose use impacts groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and the climate. European water resilience depends on the ability of its agrosystems to maintain the integrity of this cycle, particularly by supporting regulatory ecosystem functions. Agricultural transitions toward greater resilience in the face of Europe’s water crisis require shifting the focus from the individual plot to the broader water cycle. Europe’s water resilience depends less on its ability to count cubic meters of water consumed than on its capacity to manage interactions between soil, plants, and climate on a large scale, ensuring the preservation of the regions’ water and ecosystem capital. Public policies must recognize that agricultural and European water vulnerability is a structural challenge that far exceeds the capacity of individual farmers to address it alone.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES - OVERVIEW

Hydroclimatic resources

Water is not an option for agriculture: it is the foundation of all living systems. Ensuring water supply for agriculture is not a sectoral concern, but a prerequisite for ecological stability, food security, and the resilience of the EU. The European Commission’s strategy on water resilience should represent a crucial opportunity for action for the agricultural sector. No European region is safe from climate pressures and the weakening of the essential functions of its agricultural lands. Regional solidarity and access to water for agriculture are not sector-specific issues, and farmers cannot bear the costs alone of a problem that extends beyond the scale of a watershed to ensure public services: ecological stability, food security, and the economic and social resilience of the European Union. While all European regions are affected by water imbalances, the agricultural water crisis is not a uniform phenomenon, but rather a mosaic of regional situations characterized by distinct trajectories, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacities. To solve the European water puzzle, only a proactive European vision that incorporates the need for regional adaptations will provide a credible response to the diversity of constraints and challenges facing agricultural water resources.

The dimensions and indicators used in this study could be expanded and supplemented based on additional expert input or feedback from local stakeholders, in order to refine the regional assessments. The indicators outlined below are proposed for this purpose to complement the analysis:

AGROSYSTEM

Main economic crops used to identify the dominant agricultural crops at the regional level in terms of economic value. It aims to characterize regions’ economic dependence on certain crops and to assess the socioeconomic risks associated with water constraints, in order to inform the identification of levers for action and transition pathways. Agricultural Model: This indicator aims to characterize the intensity and organization of agricultural production systems (extensive, intensive, etc.) to measure their flexibility in adapting to water constraints. Efficiency and network Losses: This indicator aims to measure the efficiency of water use within agricultural irrigation systems. It constitutes a major lever for adaptation, as improving efficiency can significantly reduce pressure on the resource without altering production systems.

AGROECOSYSTEM

Soil moisture anomalies, excesses: This indicator is designed to detect situations of soil waterlogging or temporary flooding. This approach is essential because agricultural systems can be simultaneously exposed to episodes of drought and flooding. Temperature anomalies: This indicator is designed to measure crop exposure to extreme temperatures, particularly heat waves.

HYDROCLIMATIC RESOURCES

Sources of agricultural water withdrawals: This indicator aims to characterize the origin of water resources used by agriculture (surface and groundwater). The objective is to identify available options for water management and the adaptation of agricultural systems. Water quality: Quantity and quality are closely linked: a decrease in resources harms water quality, and poor quality reduces water availability. This indicator aims to measure the qualitative state of regional water resources, in order to guide policy levers for the management and protection of water resources in agriculture. Urban centers: This indicator aims to identify cities located near agricultural regions with potential for wastewater reuse.

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Regions’ adaptive capacities depend not only on the availability of resources or the characteristics of agricultural systems, but also on the regulatory framework, public investment capacity, and governance mechanisms that shape water management. Understanding European and national regulatory frameworks is essential for ensuring the coordination of solutions and maximizing synergies between regional initiatives and the budgetary resources available to support agricultural adaptation and transition measures.

AXES OF DEVELOPMENT

CONTINUATION OF THE STUDY: AXES OF DEVELOPMENT

The next phase of this study will aim to transform regional assessments into levers for action. This approach is not a standalone assessment, but rather a decisionmaking tool. It must be reviewed and enriched by regional stakeholders, whose expertise is essential for validating, refining, and contextualizing the analyses. Their input will help clarify the results, strengthen the relevance of the assessments, and ensure that the identified levers for action are translated into concrete measures.

LEVERS FOR ACTION Inventory and classification of policy levers. The first step will be to identify existing policy levers for enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems to water constraints, whether these involve nature-based solutions, technological innovations, or land-use management. Aligning existing solutions with regional constraints. The goal is to match the identified regional trends and challenges with the various levers for action, in order to identify the most relevant levers for each region. This alignment must be developed in collaboration with regional stakeholders.

BIOECONOMY Link the assessment to the EU’s decarbonization goals and the need to increase European biomass production by some 250 million tons (+25%) by 2050.

INVESTMENT ROADMAP Based on the needs assessment, a set of priority guidelines must be established to guide a credible European investment plan aimed at achieving tangible results at both the regional and European levels.

EUROPEAN INITIATIVES

To maximize both impact and budget efficiency, the proposed actions must align with existing and future European initiatives. This involves incorporating strategies for carbon farming, precision agriculture, and so on, to ensure consistency with broader policy objectives while capitalizing on synergies.

A coordinated European approach is needed to drive action at the political and budgetary levels, set a strategic direction, and secure the necessary resources to support adaptation and transition measures. Once this framework is in place, each region will be able to identify the specific measures, investment needs, and implementation pathways that best reflect its specific constraints and needs.

LEVERS FOR ACTION

FOLLOW-UP OF THE STUDY : LEVERS FOR ACTION

ANNEX 1 - MAP OF EUROPEAN BIOCLIMATES This Köppen-Geiger climate classification raster layer provides high-resolution (1 km) maps for the period 1901–2099, based on constrained CMIP6 climate projections. The dataset, developed by Beck et al. (2023), categorizes global climates into KöppenGeiger zones, widely used in ecological, agricultural, and climate research. The maps integrate historical and projected climate data, enabling the analysis of past, present, and future climate patterns. This product is critical for studies requiring detailed spatial resolution of climate classifications. The dataset is available in GeoTIFF format and spans multiple timeframes for robust temporal analysis.

ANNEX 2 - GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EUROPEAN PDO PRODUCTS

Map : Spatial distribution of the most frequent product categories. Different types of PDO products are distributed differently across Europe. At NUTS-3 level, meat and cheese products show more pronounced hotspots and higher degrees of clustering than oils and fats, or fruits, vegetables, and cereals. Green shades indicating the number of PDOs present in each NUTS-3 region. NUTS-3 is the abbreviation for the lowest scale of the European Unions ‘Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics’. Source : EU-wide mapping of ‘Protected Designations of Origin’ food products (PDOs) reveals correlations with social-ecological landscape values.

ANNEX 3 - PEATLAND AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

PEATLAND USE: GRASSLAND ARABLE LAND NO AGRICULTURE

ANNEX 4 - EUROPEAN TOPOGRAPHY

Source : EEA, Elevation map of Europe.

European Environment Agency (EEA), Europe's state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience, 2024.

Copernicus, Drought in Europe, Copernicus images acquired by Sentinel 2 showing “Europe seen from space has changed between 1 July and 31 August 2021 (left) and 1 July–31 August 2022 (right) due to the historic drought.” Article « OBSERVER, 2022. European Environment Agency (EEA), Drought impact on ecosystems in Europe, 2024. European Environment Agency (EEA), Projected change in annual and summer precipitation, 2071–2100 [Map], 2022, Modified 2024. Ceglar, A., Zampieri, M., Toreti, A., & Dentener, F. (Joint Research Centre, European Commission), Observed northward migration of agro‑climate zones in Europe will further accelerate under climate change, 2019. European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), Desertification and agriculture, 2020. European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), Irrigation in EU agriculture, 2019. Joint Research Centre (JRC), Global warming and drought impacts in the EU, 2025. European Commission (EC), EU Agricultural Outlook for Markets, Income and Environment 2022‑2032. Pinke, Z., Decsi, B., Kardos, M. K., Kern, Z., Kozma, Z., Pásztor, L., & Ács, T., Changing patterns of soil water content and relationship with national wheat and maize production in Europe, 2022. European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), Climate change impacts on food security in the European Union, 2025. Earth System Science Data (ESSD), HANZE v2.1: an improved database of flood impacts in Europe from 1870 to 2020, 2024. NASA SVS, Impact of Climate Change on Global Maize Yields, 2021. Perpiña Castillo, C., Coll Aliaga, E., Lavalle, C., & Martínez Llario, J. C., An Assessment and Spatial Modelling of Agricultural Land Abandonment in Spain (2015–2030), 2020. European Environment Agency (EEA), Water and agriculture: towards sustainable solutions, 2020 European Environment Agency (EEA), Water resources across Europe — confronting water stress: an updated assessment, 2021 IPCC AR6, Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, 2021 Rotiroti, M & al, The effects of irrigation on groundwater quality and quantity in a human-modified hydro-system: The Oglio River basin, Po Plain, northern Italy, 2019. Gramlich, A & al, Effects of artificial land drainage on hydrology, nutrient and pesticide fluxes from agricultural fields – A review, 2018. Greifswald Mire Center, Global Peatland Database (GPD), 2025. European Environment Agency (EEA), European Climate Risk Assessment, 2024. Rantanen & al, The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, 2022 Lian & al, Summer soil drying exacerbated by earlier spring greening of northern vegetation, 2020 S. Davolio, O. Drofa and P. Malguzzi ISAC- CNR, Forecasting summer convective activity over the Po Valley: insights from MAP DPHASE, 2009. Junquera & al, Hydrological collapse in southern Spain under expanding irrigated agriculture: Meteorological, hydrological, and structural drought , 2024. Flinzberger & al, EU-wide mapping of ‘Protected Designations of Origin’ food products (PDOs) reveals correlations with socialecological landscape values, 2022. Lancu, B & Stroe M, Out of one, many: hydro-economic logics in a World Bank-financed irrigation project in Romania, 2025. Díaz-Cano & al, Enhancing water efficiency: Distribution efficiency and consumption synergies, 2025. European Environment Agency (EEA), Building climate-resilient agriculture in Europe: an economic perspective, 2026. Addisu Yimer & al, The impact of extensive agricultural water drainage on the hydrology of the Kleine Nete watershed, Belgium, 2023. European Environment Agency (EEA), Water abstraction by source and economic sector in Europe, 2025. French National Institute for Agriculture, Food, and Environment (INRA), Rôles, impacts et services issus des élevages en Europe. Synthèse de l’expertise scientifique collective, 2016.

REFERENCES

European Commission (EC), Water resilience strategy, 2024.

ANNEX 5 -

water-soil-climate retroactions

L'humidité du sol a été reconnue co Variable Climatique Essentielle (ECV) d terrestre. C’est l'un des principaux déterminants de la productivité végétale impact déterminant sur la sécurité a climatique et environnementale.

Humidité du sol : variable clé des fonctions terrestres, et agricoles

L'humidité du sol est définie comme la teneur en eau du sol. Elle a une incidence directe sur la productivité agricole et le cycle hydrologique terrestre global,. Un sol humide favorise l’accumulation de carbone, car il stimule la vie microbienne et racinaire qui transforme et stabilise la matière organique. Cette dynamique rend l’humidité du sol essentielle à la santé des sols, et donc à la productivité des cultures

RETROACTIONS

Un sol humide entretient Un sol s l’évapotranspiration, qui réchauffe contribue à maintenir un de nouvel climat local plus humide et auparavan favorise les précipitations. une reco réchauffem augmenta réserves d efficacem Precipitations

Evapotranspiration

0-30 CM La couche superficielle du sol correspond à la principale zone racinaire des cultures annuelles. Elle est très sensible aux sécheresses et constitue un bon indicateur du stress hydrique.

> 30 CM

La couche profonde agit comme un réservoir stratégique pour les plantes. Elle reflète la résilience à long terme des sols et leur capacité à soutenir les écosystèmes pendant des déficits hydriques prolongés. Elle influence la couche superficielle par des phénomènes comme la remontée capillaire. RÔLE TAMPON DES EAUX SOUTERRAINES

RESERVE SOUTERRAINE Les réserves souterraines jouent un rôle de tampon : elles stockent l’eau en période humide et la restituent en période sèche, soutenant ainsi sols, cultures et écosystèmes. A savoir : un sol saturé en eau entraine une infiltration rapide et augmente le risque de pollution des nappes.

FARM

EUROPE

omme une du système x facteurs e. Elle a un alimentaire,

Une bonne humidité du sol soutient la vie microbienne et le stockage de carbone, régule le climat local grâce à l’évapotranspiration, et joue un rôle tampon en amortissant les sécheresses tout en rechargeant les nappes phréatiques. Pour comprendre les enjeux de la ressource en eau du secteur agricole il est nécessaire de disposer d'une connaissance approfondie des principales tendances en matière d'humidité des sols à travers le continent et au fil du temps.

sec limite l’évapotranspiration, ce qui et assèche l’air. Cela réduit la probabilité lles pluies et amplifie la sécheresse. Si nt la reprise des précipitations entrainait onstitution des réserves du sol, le ment climatique a entrainé une ation de la “demande d’évaporation” : les d’eau du sol ne se reconstituent pas ment.

Un sol sec perd progressivement ses fonctions essentielles. Le déficit en eau limite l’activité microbienne et racinaire. Cette perte de dynamique biologique peut entraîner un déstockage de carbone, accentuant davantage le changement climatique.

Vague de chaleur

Evapotranspiration

RUISSELLEMENT

Evaporation

Un sol sec absorbe mal la pluie : une grande partie de l’eau est alors perdue par ruissellement, ce qui accentue l’érosion et ne permet pas une reconsitution efficace des réserves d’eau du sol.

DRAINAGE

L’eau suit un gradient d’humidité. Un sol sec en profondeur entrainera un drainage des eaux de surface, limitant l’impact de la recharge grace aux precipitations.

RESERVE SOUTERRAINE

L’appauvrissement des nappes entraine des tendances de diminution de l'humidité du sol, la frange capillaire suivant la baisse du niveau des nappes. En période sèche, les eaux souterraines sont une source importante pour l’irrigation. Mal exploitées, leur niveau baisse, les cultures perdent l’accès à ces réserves profondes. Un cercle vicieux entre sécheresse agricole et dégradation de la ressource en eau s’engage alors.

EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE: FROM A DIVERSITY OF WATER-RELATED CHALLENGES TO CONTEXTSPECIFIC RESPONSES SECURING WATER IN AGRICULTURE TO SECURE EUROPE VERY HIGH VULNERABILITY ZONE Structurally water-depleted agroecosystems with a pronounced impact of water stress on crop productivity. HIGH VULNERABILITY ZONE Agroecosystems under structural water stress. MODERATE VULNERABILITY ZONE Noticeable water stress signals of the AgroEcosystem.

WATCH ZONE Low scoring for Soil Moisture indicators suggesting emerging water stress risks. RESILIENT REGION Few or no negative anomalies.

The base map synthesizes three indicators into an aggregated score: FAPAR anomaly, Soil Moisture Index (SMI), and Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA). Calculations cover the growing season (May–September) over the period 2020–2025 at the NUTS 2 regional level. Calculations based on data from EDO, EEA, and Eurostat. The icons highlight the main limiting factors, identified through a combined analysis of five additional indicators: SPEI-48, SPI-6, groundwater status, maximum 5-day precipitation, and WEI+.

MAP: SCORING AGROECOSYSTEM WATER VULNERABILITY

Annual water deficit Water balance (SPEI), summer & winter (SPI) precipitation deficit anomalies signals.

Summer water deficit Summer precipitation deficit anomalies signals (SPI-Sept).

Winter water deficit Winter precipitation deficit anomalies signals (SPI-March).

Water + Positive water balance trends coupled with heavy precipitation paterns.

Water Positive water balance trends

Precipitation pattern Heavy precipitation paterns.

High Water Exploitation Index (WEI+)