FARM EUROPE
BUDGET NEGOCIATIONS : UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS & CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURE
The 2028-2034 budget negotiations will be one of the most complex considering the national constraints, the need to reimbourse COVID debt as well as enlargement talks with Ukraine. Overview of the key drivers and figures at stake to secure a strong support to agriculture as a strategic sector for Europe. Without waiting for the new college of Commissioners to take office, the European Commission has launched the discussions on a potential overall of the EU budget for 2028-2034. These discussions are the scene setter for the draft Multi-annual Financial Framework proposal, expected for summer 2025. To disrupt the negotiations and change the parameters of a complex budget equation, the Commission leaked preliminary ideas for drastic changes in the structure of the next MFF, particularly by merging 530 EU programs into a single €1,2 trillion fund, called Pillar I. Two additional pillars would focus on services and major investments, including defense and enlargement. The present note provides an assessment of the potential consequences of those initial ideas, explaining the main parameters at stake for EU agri-food sector. Negotiations around the EU budget are expected to be just as crucial as they are complex, particularly due to the critical budgetary situations in several Member States, the need to repay the common debt contracted during the Covid-19 pandemic, the expenses related to the war in Ukraine, and the negotiations around the upcoming enlargement. In this context, uncertainty remains on which place will be given to the CAP and agricultural policies in the final budgetary allocations.
In preparing the European Union’s financial perspectives for 2028-34, the European Commission is trying on the one hand to create financial margins without any new financial space, and on the other hand, to pressure Member States on funding the EU budget while preserving its role as the decision-maker. Traditionally, the Commission would
first discuss with capitals about acceptable cuts to the budgets of major European policies and the acceptability of a slightly growing overall EU budget. In this first-round exercise, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was often presented for scrutiny (with proposals like a 30% cut in 2018). In today’s context of budgetary frugality, the Commission