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Merchant’s Park and Avon Industrial Park Market and Buildout Analysis June 2026

Disclaimer The analyses, findings, projections, and recommendations contained in this report are based on information available at the time of preparation, including data obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Economic conditions, market dynamics, demographic trends, public policy, construction costs, interest rates, and other factors influencing real estate and economic performance are subject to change over time and may materially affect actual outcomes. RKG Associates, Inc. has exercised customary professional care in the preparation of this work product; however, no warranty or guarantee is made regarding future market performance, financial outcomes, development feasibility, absorption rates, implementation success, or investment returns. This report is intended to inform planning, policy, and decision-making processes and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for financial, investment, development, or legal decisions. To the fullest extent permitted by law, RKG Associates, Inc. shall not be liable for losses, damages, or claims arising from changes in market, economic, financial, regulatory, or site conditions occurring after completion of the work.

Table of Contents Introduction

Demographic Overview Multifamily Office Retail Industrial/Flex Buildout Analysis

Merchants Park and Avon Industrial Park RKG Associates, Inc. (RKG), in partnership with Fuss & O’Neill, was contracted by the Town of Avon to evaluate development opportunities within two key areas: Merchants Park and the Avon Industrial Park, located on either side of Route 24 near the Stoughton border.

Avon Industrial Park

These areas serve distinct roles within the local economy—Merchants Park as a retail and commercial corridor, and the Avon Industrial Park as a major employment center. The Town is exploring the expansion of sewer infrastructure to support reinvestment, increase development capacity, and enhance long-term economic viability. This analysis evaluates market conditions and development capacity for each area, assessing the feasibility of industrial, commercial, and residential uses based on zoning, site constraints, and future planning scenarios.

Merchant’s Park

Source and Image Credit: Google Earth

MERCHANT’S PARK

Source and Image Credit: Google Earth, RKG Associates

AVON INDUSTRIAL PARK

Source and Image Credit: Google Earth, RKG Associates

Avon Submarket

To compare market conditions within Avon to a broader submarket, the communities highlighted in orange represent what is referred to as the submarket throughout this report. Across demographics, household changes, housing product and property comparables, Avon is compared to this collection of communities to benchmark performance and the underlying fundamentals.

Key Findings Avon is an aging, higher-income community with modest population growth and a shrinking base of prime working-age residents. Avon functions as a commuter-oriented economy within the Greater Boston labor market, with limited local employment growth and strong regional job integration. Multifamily housing demand remains strong and is supported by rising rents, limited supply, and shifting household composition. Retail is stable and well-occupied, with future opportunities concentrated in smaller-format, neighborhood-serving uses driven by local spend not currently captured within the market. Avon’s office market remains small and soft, with elevated vacancy and future demand expected to be modest and concentrated in health care and service-oriented sectors. Industrial and flex demand is modest and locally driven, supporting smaller-scale tenants in targeted development rather than the larger-format speculative industrial seen just after the pandemic. 8

Industrial

Retail

Office

Residential

There is market demand for several different uses, or a combination of uses in the area. • • • •

Population is steadily growing. Household incomes are rising. Rental demand is strong for one- and two-bedroom units. Housing prices are increasing while vacancy remains low.

• •

Employment is projected to grow in some in key office-using sectors. Smaller professional office spaces could be incorporated into first floor or upper stories of mixed-use buildings.

• • •

Incomes are growing. New households would bring more local spending power. There is spending demand that could be recaptured within the town.

• •

Employment is projected to grow in some key industrial-driven sectors. Smaller-scale, flexible industrial uses present a viable opportunity for Avon to potentially capture a share of broader regional demand.

Projected population growth through 2050 could support more than 360 new housing units.

Office sector targets might include small professional office and small medical office. Likely less than 14,000 SF of space unless Avon can capture a larger share of County employment growth.

Retail potential is focused on food and beverage and other local-serving, smallerformat uses that support spending recapture rather than broad sector expansion.

Demand is modest, with opportunities best suited to smaller-scale, flexible industrial space. Future development is likely to be incremental and site-specific rather than large-format expansion. 9

Avon Market Overview Demographic Trends

Avon’s population has steadily increased.

Avon has experienced modest but steady population growth since 2010, increasing by 6.1% (approximately 274 residents) over the past decade. While growth has occurred across much of the surrounding submarket, larger communities such as Brockton, Quincy, and West Bridgewater have expanded at a faster pace. This pattern suggests that, while Avon is participating in broader regional growth trends, it remains a smaller contributor to overall population expansion. Even so, continued population growth supports incremental increases in housing demand and local-serving commercial activity. Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates

Avon’s household income continues to shift toward higher earners.

Avon has experienced steady population growth over the past decade, along with a shift in the income profile of new households. Median incomes have risen, and the town is becoming more affluent relative to both its past conditions and comparable communities in the submarket, in part due to increasing housing costs since 2020. With a median household income of approximately $130,625, Avon ranks among the higher-income communities in the surrounding area. Avon’s housing stock is predominantly owner-occupied single-family homes, limiting alternative housing options. This reflects a stable, ownership-oriented market supported by higher household incomes, which sustains neighborhood-serving retail and shapes housing demand across both ownership and rental segments. Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2015–2019 values rebased to constant 2024 dollars using R-CPI-U-RS.

Avon is aging, with fewer prime-age workers and a growing older adult population. Under 20 to 65+ residents near 1:1

Youth to Prime working age level Older adult to prime working age increasing

Avon’s population has grown modestly since 2010, but its age structure has continued to shift older. While total population reached 4,777 by 2020, the share of prime working-age residents (25–54) declined from 43% in 2000 to under 40%, reflecting a gradual thinning of the core workforce. Over the same period, the 65+ population has increased, contributing to a higher aging pressure index and a widening gap between older and working-age cohorts. Together, these trends point to an evolving demographic profile in which future demand is increasingly shaped by older households, alongside a more limited base of prime working-age residents.

Source: Decennial Census, 2000 - 2020

Avon’s household structure is shifting away from mid-sized households toward smaller and larger households.

Avon’s household composition is shifting, with growth concentrated in both smaller and larger households and declines among mid-sized households. The largest increases have occurred in one-person owner households, alongside gains in 5+ person owner households, while 2- to 4-person owner households have declined. Renter trends are more mixed but show a similar contraction among mid-sized households. Together, these patterns point to changing housing needs, including increased demand for smaller, lower-maintenance units as well as housing that can accommodate larger or more flexible household arrangements, highlighting a growing mismatch between the existing housing stock and evolving resident needs.

Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019 - 2024

Avon is primarily owner-occupied, with a growing divide between older owners and younger renters.

Over the past decade, renter household growth has been concentrated among residents under age 35, while owner households remain primarily concentrated among those age 55 and older. Although households aged 35–54 continue to represent a meaningful share of owners, declines in this cohort over time suggest limited turnover and weak entry into homeownership among working-age residents. At the same time, renter households remain heavily weighted toward younger age groups, with comparatively limited representation among middle-age cohorts. Together, these patterns indicate a housing market increasingly divided between older long-term homeowners and younger renters, with fewer pathways for households to transition from renting into ownership over time. Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019 - 2024

Avon’s housing market is defined by stable ownership, a mobile renter base, and shifting household sizes.

Avon’s residential mobility patterns point to a highly stable ownership base alongside a more recently mobile rental market. The majority of owner households moved into their homes prior to 2019, including a large share that has remained in place since before 2000, indicating long-term tenure stability and limited turnover among homeowners. In contrast, renter households show much more recent move-in activity, with most relocating within the past decade and very few long-term renters remaining in place.

At the same time, Avon remains predominantly family-based, but household composition has become more varied. Family households have shifted toward larger household sizes, with growth in 4-person and 5+ person households and declines in mid-sized family households. Non-family households, particularly 1-person households, have also increased. Together, these trends reflect a housing market characterized by strong ownership stability and evolving household size patterns, with growing representation of smaller non-family households alongside continued presence of larger family households. Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2014 - 2024

Avon’s resident profile is shifting toward higher education and higher income households.

Avon has experienced a gradual shift toward higher educational attainment over the past decade, with growth in bachelor’s and graduate/professional degree holders and a decline in residents with only a high school education or less. While some volatility remains in the associate’s/some college category, the overall trend points to a more educated resident base over time. At the same time, household income levels have shifted upward, with a marked increase in households earning $150,000 or more and a corresponding decline in lower-income households earning under $100,000. Middle-income households have remained present but have become more variable over time, with growth increasingly concentrated in higher income brackets since 2020. Together, these trends indicate a community that is becoming more highly educated and higher income overall, reinforcing demand for higher-cost housing and service-oriented commercial uses, while also highlighting continued income diversity within the town. Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2009 - 2024

Recent workforce changes in Avon are concentrated in service and retail sectors. NAICS Code

NAICS Industry

2019

2024

Change

Percent Change

Avon Total Industry Employment

Average Monthly Employment by 2-Digit NAICS

Construction

702

518

-184

-26.2%

31-33

Manufacturing

910

877

-33

-3.6%

Wholesale Trade

655

537

-118

-18.0%

44-45

Retail Trade

1,083

1,137

5.0%

48-49

Transportation and Warehousing

353

249

-104

-29.5%

Information

210

164

-46

-21.9%

Finance and Insurance

-10

-35.7%

Construction

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

177

205

15.8%

Health Care and Social Assistance

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

236

138

-98

-41.5%

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

215

200

-15

-7.0%

Health Care and Social Assistance

368

425

15.5%

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Accommodation and Food Services

142

107

-35

-24.7%

Other Services (except Public Administration)

119

121

1.7%

Average Monthly Employment

5,537

5,037

-500

-9.0%

2019

2024

Retail Trade Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Administrative and Support and Waste Management…

Information

Accommodation and Food Services Finance and Insurance 0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

From 2019 to 2024, Avon’s workforce declined by roughly 500 jobs (about 9%), driven largely by losses in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. At the same time, more moderate gains occurred in retail trade, healthcare and social assistance, and real estate and rental and leasing. Taken together, these trends point to a shift away from goods-producing and logistics-related employment toward more service-oriented sectors, reinforcing the broader pattern of demand for smaller-scale commercial and office space rather than large-format industrial or office uses. Source: Massachusetts Department of Economic Research; ES-202 Total, Total Industries, * indicate likely suppressions in the data

As of 2023, only about 7.5% of workers living in Avon are also employed in town, while a larger share commute to jobs in Boston (15.7%) and other nearby employment centers such as Brockton, Braintree, and Stoughton. This pattern reflects Avon’s strong integration within the Greater Boston labor market, with many residents commuting outward for employment opportunities. At the same time, Avon attracts workers from a broad range of surrounding communities, with the largest inflows coming from Brockton (14.1%), Boston (5.4%), and nearby municipalities such as Taunton, Stoughton, and Randolph. Together, these commuting patterns indicate that while Avon relies on outbound commuting to regional job centers, it also functions as a local employment hub within the Route 24 corridor, supporting a diverse workforce and contributing to daytime economic activity. Source: US Census 2023 LEHD

About 92% of Avon’s working residents commute to nearby communities for work.

People who live in Avon and work elsewhere

People who live elsewhere and work in Avon

192

People who live and work in Avon

Avon supports a local employment base that draws workers from a broad regional area, with the largest inflows coming from Brockton and additional concentrations from nearby communities such as Taunton, Stoughton, Quincy, and Randolph. This distribution reflects the Town’s position along the Route 24 corridor, providing access to a diverse labor pool within a reasonable commuting distance. Overall, Avon functions as a locally accessible employment center within the broader regional labor market, supporting a range of commercial and industrial uses.

Source: US Census 2023 LEHD

Avon’s workforce is supported by commuters from surrounding communities.

Brockton and Boston are key employment destinations for Avon residents.

Avon residents commute to a range of regional employment centers, with the largest share traveling to Boston (15.7%) and additional concentrations in nearby communities such as Brockton, Stoughton, Braintree, and Quincy. While a small portion of residents are employed locally, most commute outward along the Route 24 corridor and into the Greater Boston area for work. This pattern reflects Avon’s strong connectivity to the regional labor market and access to a diverse range of employment opportunities beyond the Town.

Source: US Census 2023 LEHD

Avon Market Overview Multifamily Market

Ongoing population growth is expected to sustain housing demand in Avon. Projected Population Change

2024 Population – 4,774 2050 Projected Population – 5,794 Potential Additional Households by 2050 – 364

Source: US Census ACS 5-Year Estimates, UMass Donahue Institute, RKG Associates

Population projections from the UMass Donahue Institute estimate that Avon’s population could reach approximately 5,794 by 2050. Based on the town’s current average household size of 2.8 persons per household, this growth would translate into demand for roughly 364 additional housing units by 2050. If Avon’s current owner-to-renter distribution remains consistent, this projected household growth could support demand for approximately 87 additional renter households and about 277 owner households over the forecast period.

Multifamily development remains active in the Avon submarket. Multifamily Submarket Quick stats

Submarket Multifamily Activity

22,921

213

6.2%

$2,456

5.2%

Inventory Units

Vacancy Rate

Under Constr. Units

Market Asking Rent/Unit

12 Mo Absorp Units

Market Cap Rate

Forecast

Absorption

Net Deliveries

Vacancy

500

10% 9%

400

Note: Arrow direct & color indicate change in metric from previous quarter within the submarket.

300

Avon’s multifamily submarket remains healthy, with vacancy rates typically ranging between 3% and 8%, indicating sustained rental demand across the broader region. The town and surrounding communities also serve as a more affordable alternative to higher-cost Boston suburbs, attracting renters priced out of nearby inner-ring markets. Multifamily construction has varied over the past decade, with some periods seeing little to no new development and others experiencing larger project deliveries. On average, the submarket has added approximately 90 units per quarter over the past ten years, reflecting an uneven but ongoing development cycle. Looking ahead, development potential in Avon is likely to be concentrated in a mix of smaller-unit housing and selectively larger units that reflect both an aging population and the presence of larger family households. Together, these dynamics point to continued but targeted demand for multifamily development, particularly in higher-density locations that can accommodate a range of household sizes. Source: Costar Analytics as of 2026 Q1

6% 200

5% 4%

100

3% 2%

1% (100)

0% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Multifamily rents in the submarket continue to increase. Submarket Rents by Unit Type

Submarket rents have increased steadily across all unit types over the past decade, reflecting sustained demand in the multifamily market. Growth was most pronounced between roughly 2016 and 2023, followed by a period of more moderate increases in recent years. Smaller-unit types, including studios and one-bedrooms, have consistently led rent growth, while two- and three-bedroom units have also increased at a steadier pace.

CoStar Estimated Asking Rents Forecast

Studio

1 Bed

2 Beds

3 Beds 4000

3500

3000

As of 2026, rents remain elevated across all unit types compared to 2016 levels, with larger units continuing to command a price premium. Recent trends indicate the market has begun to stabilize following a period of rapid post-2020 escalation, suggesting a transition toward more normalized pricing conditions.

2500

2000

1500

Overall, rent trends point to sustained demand across the multifamily spectrum, with continued strength in smaller-unit product aligned with broader demographic shifts and household composition trends in Avon and the surrounding submarket.

1000

500

0 2016

Source: Costar Analytics

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Avon remains a lower-cost option within the region amid rising regional rents. Average Market Asking Rent per Unit Avon

Submarket Multifamily Inventory % of Units by Bedroom Type

Submarket

50%

$3,000 40%

$2,500

43%

45% 40% 35%

$2,000

30% 25%

$1,500

20% $1,000

15%

11%

$500

10%

5% 1%

$0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0% Studio

1 Bed

2 Beds

3 Beds

4+ Beds

The multifamily rental submarket is heavily weighted toward one- and two-bedroom units, which account for approximately 83% of total inventory. This distribution reflects strong demand for smaller units, driven by smaller households and downsizing trends observed across the region. Average asking rents in Avon have historically trailed submarket levels, positioning the town as a more affordable alternative within the broader market. Since 2020, this gap has widened as rents increased more rapidly across the submarket. With limited new construction and relatively tight conditions, rents are projected to remain elevated, reaching approximately $2,500 to $2,600 through 2031. Together, these trends point to sustained demand for smaller-unit housing, while also indicating potential to capture additional regional demand if supply constraints are addressed. Source: Costar Analytics, Oxford Economics

Mixed use with first floor activation has been successful in the submarket. Mixed Use

Mixed Use

25 Commercial St Braintree, MA Year Built: 2018 Parcel Size: 2.06 AC Units: 172 Density: 83 Units per Acre

39 Trotter Rd Weymouth, MA Year Built: 2020 Parcel Size: 5.56 AC Units: 237 Density: 43 Units per Acre

120 N. Franklin St Holbrook, MA Year Built: 2023 Parcel Size: 1.42 AC Units: 72 Density: 51 Units per Acre

The three projects highlighted on this page illustrate recent higher-density infill developments within the submarket that combine multifamily residential uses at a range of scales. Completed between 2018 and 2023, these projects reflect the level of density that has been achieved in similar suburban contexts and provide a relevant comparison for what may be supportable under revised zoning conditions. While primarily residential in nature, they demonstrate that compact, higher-intensity development is already being successfully delivered in the submarket. Together, these examples provide a useful reference point for evaluating whether a more flexible redevelopment framework—including potential mixed-use elements—could be supported in areas such as Merchant’s Park under updated zoning scenarios.

Source: CoStar

Avon Market Overview Office Market

Avon’s workforce base is projected to expand through 2035. Norfolk County

Avon NAICS

Description

44 31 42 23 90 62 48

Retail Trade Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Construction Government Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing

56 54 51 53 81 72 71 55 52 11 61 22 21

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Information Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Other Services (except Public Administration) Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises Finance and Insurance Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Educational Services Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

2025 Jobs

2035 Jobs

% Change

2025 Jobs

2035 Jobs

% Change

Stoughton Share of County 2025

1,150 972 503 429 429 414 255

1,179 966 484 460 495 445 277

2.5% -0.7% -3.7% 7.1% 15.4% 7.7% 8.8%

22.4% 18.3% 9.2% 8.7% 9.4% 8.5% 5.3%

38,611 18,753 14,828 21,536 36,284 56,548 9,113

38,551 18,075 14,165 22,320 37,839 60,879 9,913

-0.2% -3.6% -4.5% 3.6% 4.3% 7.7% 8.8%

10.9% 5.1% 4.0% 6.3% 10.7% 17.2% 2.8%

3.1% 5.3% 3.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.7% 2.8%

160 148 146 138 97 84 60 31 21 0 0 0 0 5,038

198 161 120 159 122 87 69 26 19 0 0 0 0 5,267

23.7% 9.0% -17.7% 15.3% 25.2% 3.3% 13.8% -15.5% -9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6%

3.8% 3.1% 2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100%

21,414 23,504 8,034 6,450 12,075 27,286 9,399 7,741 21,206 942 11,418 526 70 345,738

24,868 24,002 6,613 6,790 11,858 28,198 10,694 6,531 19,240 1,169 11,753 595 84 354,136

16.1% 2.1% -17.7% 5.3% -1.8% 3.3% 13.8% -15.6% -9.3% 24.1% 2.9% 13.1% 20.0% 2.4%

7.0% 6.8% 1.9% 1.9% 3.3% 8.0% 3.0% 1.8% 5.4% 0.3% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 100%

0.8% 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

Avon’s employment base is projected to increase by about 5% between 2025 and 2035, with the fastest growth in Administrative and Support Services (+23.7%). Retail Trade is expected to remain the largest sector, accounting for roughly one-quarter of total jobs. Although overall growth is modest, the mix of expanding industries points toward demand for smaller-scale space—such as medical offices, professional suites, and neighborhood-serving commercial uses—rather than large-format office development. Source: Lightcast QCEW Estimates 2026 Q1

Administrative and Waste Management and Healthcare are projected to be the main driver of future office space demand in Avon. Projected Office Space Demand by Employment Sector, 2025 - 2035 Stoughton Change In Employment

SF Demand Projection

Norfolk County Change In Employment

SF Demand Projection

Information

(26)

(4,508)

(1,421)

(248,620)

Finance and Insurance

(2)

(546)

(1,967)

(540,790)

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

4,221

341

68,107

2,604

498

97,063

(5)

(956)

(1,210)

(242,019)

7,576

3,454

690,732

Health Care and Social Assistance

4,748

4,330

649,548

Total 10-Year Space Demand Projection

13,140

4,025

474,020

2-digit NAICS Industry Sector

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Waste Management

Annualized Space Demand Projection

1,314

47,402

The space demand table above use the Lightcast employment forecast and estimated square footage needed for each new full-time worker to create an estimate of demand for space. The results of this tabulation is totaled creating a net total demand for space (if that number is negative, it implies a loss of jobs meaning more “unused space” which would add to vacancy). This approach provides a good starting point for evaluating the impact of employment on real estate.

Source: Lightcast QCEW Estimates 2026 Q1, RKG Associates.

Over the next decade, office demand in Avon is projected to be concentrated in a limited number of sectors, reflecting employment trends and the town’s role within the broader Norfolk County economy. Administrative and Waste Management is anticipated to generate the largest share of demand, accounting for approximately 7,600 square feet of office space as employment in the sector expands. Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to contribute an additional 4,700 square feet, while Real Estate and Leasing adds roughly 4,200 square feet. Together, these sectors represent the primary drivers of office growth in Avon. In contrast, several traditional office-oriented industries are projected to contract locally. Information, Finance and Insurance, and Management of Companies and Enterprises are expected to see employment declines, resulting in negative office demand. As a result, overall office growth in Avon remains modest, with total demand estimated at approximately 13,100 square feet over the next ten years. Regional trends across Norfolk County reinforce this pattern. Countywide office demand is projected to total approximately 474,000 square feet, with growth largely driven by Administrative and Waste Management and Health Care and Social Assistance. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services also contributes positive demand, while Finance and Insurance and Information are projected to decline.

Together, these trends indicate that future office growth will be increasingly tied to health care and service-oriented administrative functions, rather than traditional corporate office industries. 30

Avon office submarket remains soft with persistently elevated vacancy. Office Submarket Quick stats

Submarket Office Market Activity

9.7M

-104K

15.6%

$27.83

8.3%

Inventory SF

Vacancy Rate

Under Constr. SF

Market Asking Rent/SF

12 Mo Absorp SF

Net Absorption

Net Deliveries

Vacancy

200,000

25%

100,000

Market Cap Rate

Note: Arrow direct & color indicate change in metric from previous quarter within the submarket.

Over the past decade, Avon’s office submarket has consistently maintained elevated vacancy, generally ranging between roughly 8% and 16%. Vacancy increased notably in the late 2010s and has remained elevated since, with only short-term improvements driven by isolated quarters of positive absorption. Net absorption has been volatile throughout the period, with alternating gains and losses and no sustained recovery in occupancy. While select periods—particularly in 2022 and parts of 2024—saw stronger leasing activity, these gains were not sustained long enough to materially reduce vacancy. Most recently, negative absorption in 2026 has pushed vacancy back toward 16%. Overall, the submarket reflects a soft office environment with uneven leasing activity and persistently elevated vacancy.

Source: Costar Analytics as of 2026 Q1

Forecast

20% 0

(100,000)

15%

(200,000) 10%

(300,000)

(400,000) 5% (500,000)

(600,000)

0% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Office rents continue to climb amid shifting office space demand. Office Market Asking Rent per Square Foot Forecast

Avon

Office Market Vacancy Rate

Submarket

Forecast

Avon

Submarket

$35

30%

$30

25%

$25

20%

$20 15% $15 10%

$10

$5 $0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Asking rents for office space in Avon have consistently trailed the broader submarket, averaging approximately $20.25 per square foot in 2026, about $7 below submarket levels. Despite this gap, rents have increased steadily over the past decade, with submarket rents exceeding $27 per square foot, reflecting broader market growth and limited new supply. Office vacancy across the submarket has fluctuated between 13% and 16% since 2018, reflecting uneven leasing activity and shifts in workplace demand. Within Avon, the relatively small office inventory and lack of new development have helped maintain stable conditions, with demand largely focused on existing space. Overall, these trends indicate that Avon’s office market is stable but constrained, with future growth likely to occur through gradual absorption of existing space rather than significant new office development. Source: CoStar, Oxford Economics

Consistent yet uneven leasing reflects tight supply and changing office space needs. Median Months on Market

Submarket Office Space Leasing Activity

Submarket Office Properties

300,000

25.0 250,000 20.0 200,000 15.0 150,000 10.0

100,000

5.0

50,000

0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0.0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

In 2025, office properties across the broader submarket averaged approximately 15 to 18 months on the market, reflecting longer leasing timelines following post-pandemic adjustments. Tenants are taking more time to make leasing decisions as employers reassess space needs, including the adoption of flexible work arrangements and reduced office footprints. Office leasing activity across the submarket has remained modest and variable, with many quarters characterized by smaller transactions under 50,000 square feet and occasional spikes driven by individual large leases. Similar patterns are evident in Avon, where the town’s smaller office inventory and limited tenant base mean that a small number of transactions can significantly influence annual totals. At both the local and submarket levels, these fluctuations indicate that office demand remains uneven and is driven more by individual tenant movements than by sustained market expansion. Source: CoStar, Oxford Economics

Suburban office inventory is small-scale and unevenly occupied across assets.

25 Main St Weymouth, MA Year Built: 2017 RBA: 14,250 SF Type: 3-star Office Occupancy: 100%

169 N Franklin St Holbrook, MA Year Built: 2009 RBA: 13,850 SF Type: 2-star Office Occupancy: 73.6%

1032 Turnpike St Canton, MA Year Built: 2008 RBA: 15,000 SF Type: 3-star Office Condo Occupancy: 100%

The office properties highlighted in the submarket illustrate a range of smaller-scale, suburban office buildings that characterize much of the local inventory. These assets vary in age and quality, from newer, fully occupied 3-star properties to older 2-star buildings with more moderate occupancy. Overall, they reflect a market dominated by low- to mid-rise suburban office product, where performance is highly tenant-specific and smaller buildings tend to lease up unevenly depending on user demand. Together, these examples provide context for Avon’s office market, which is similarly composed of small-format properties and continues to experience uneven occupancy across assets.

Source: CoStar

Avon Market Overview Retail Market

Avon’s retail submarket remains well-occupied with limited new development. Submarket Retail Market Activity

Retail Submarket Quick stats 13.3M

100K

91.4K

4.2%

$32.69

6.7%

Inventory SF

Vacancy Rate

Under Constr. SF

Market Asking Rent/SF

12 Mo Absorp SF

Forecast

Net Absorption

Net Deliveries

Vacancy

300,000

10% 9%

200,000

Market Cap Rate

Note: Arrow direct & color indicate change in metric from previous quarter within the submarket.

8% 100,000

7% 0

Over the past decade, the Avon retail submarket has remained relatively tight, with vacancy typically ranging between 2% and 6%, reflecting a well-occupied retail environment and limited new development. Net absorption has varied across the period, with both positive and negative leasing activity reflecting tenant turnover and broader shifts in retail demand. More recently, vacancy has increased to just under 6%, driven by uneven absorption trends over the past year, and is expected to moderate toward approximately 4.5% by the end of 2026. Despite this increase, vacancy remains within a healthy range, suggesting the submarket continues to absorb space, even as leasing activity remains uneven. Overall, these trends point to a stable retail market where future growth is likely to occur gradually through tenant turnover and targeted development rather than large-scale expansion. Source: Costar Analytics as of 2026 Q1

(100,000)

5% 4%

(200,000)

3% (300,000) 2% (400,000)

(500,000)

0% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Avon’s retail market remains stable with healthy demand and periodic vacancy fluctuations. Retail Market Asking Rent per Square Foot Forecast

Avon

Retail Market Vacancy Rate

Submarket

Forecast

Avon

Submarket

$45 14%

$40

12%

$35 $30

10%

$25

$20

$15 4%

$10

$5 $0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

While vacancy in Avon has fluctuated more noticeably on a quarterly basis, the broader submarket has remained relatively stable, generally ranging between 2% and 6%. Over the past decade, Avon’s vacancy has remained at or below 13%, tightening to below 1% in mid-2023 before rising to just under 7% today, broadly in line with surrounding market conditions. At the same time, asking rents in Avon have increased steadily, rising from approximately $20 per square foot in 2016 to around $26 by early 2026, reflecting continued tenant demand and limited new supply. Overall, these trends suggest Avon functions as a more affordable retail location within the submarket, with generally healthy underlying demand, where short-term fluctuations in occupancy reflect market scale and individual leasing activity rather than structural weakness. Source: CoStar, Oxford Economics

Retail leasing activity in Avon is modest and limited, reflecting its smaller scale within a more active regional submarket. Retail Space Leasing Activity Avon

Median Months on Market Submarket Office Properties

Submarket

30.0

160,000 140,000

25.0

120,000

20.0

100,000

15.0

80,000 60,000

10.0

40,000

5.0

20,000 0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0.0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Leasing activity in Avon’s retail market has historically been modest, with most quarters seeing no leasing activity, reflecting the town’s limited inventory and small scale of most transactions. While the broader submarket has rebounded from pandemic-related disruptions—bringing average months on market down from roughly 24 in 2022 to 12 by 2026—Avon’s activity remains relatively small, with a few larger leases noticeably influencing quarterly totals. Over the past year, the submarket’s largest leases were concentrated in Brockton, Weymouth, and Braintree, which drove overall leasing activity, while Avon’s retail transactions remained smaller and more modest in scale. Overall, Avon’s retail market is stable and well-occupied, constrained by inventory size, with future growth opportunities tied to regional demand and moderately sized new or redeveloped space. Source: CoStar, Oxford Economics

Merchant’s Park and Avon Industrial Park are both strategically located along the Route 24 corridor, with direct access from Exit 35B, providing strong regional connectivity for auto-oriented retail and industrial uses. Merchant’s Park functions as Avon’s primary large-format commercial node, with a tenant mix concentrated in retail trade, home improvement, and valueoriented retail. These uses reflect a regional draw anchored by big-box and destination-oriented tenants, and the area currently operates as a low-density, auto-oriented employment and commercial district. Given its scale, access, and existing development pattern, the district has the potential to support a broader mix of uses over time. While current conditions favor large-format retail and industrial uses, portions of the area may be suitable for incremental diversification, including service-oriented retail and, in select locations, mixed-use redevelopment or residential components. Source: ESRI

Retail Gap Analysis

The 0–10 minute trade area reflects local-serving retail conditions and nearby consumer spending patterns, making it most useful for evaluating convenience-oriented and neighborhood-serving demand. The broader 10–20 minute trade area reflects a more competitive regional retail environment influenced by highway access, larger-format retail, and destination-oriented commercial activity. Together, these trade areas distinguish between opportunities to improve local spending capture and opportunities to compete within the broader regional market.

Source: ESRI

The 10-minute trade area is a supply-rich retail market with limited capacity for new large-format retail development. ESRI analytics provides estimates for how much households are spending on a given retail sector, in a given geography over the course of a year. Similarly, data is provided for the sales volume in a given geography for each retail business category. Tabulating these two data sources for the 10-minute Drive Time to Merchant’s Park gives an indication of how much retail spending is captured by residents versus how much is the result of visitors from outside of town.

Retail conditions within the 10-minute trade area indicate a broad surplus of retail supply across most categories, suggesting the immediate market is generally well served by existing commercial inventory. The largest supply surpluses are concentrated in motor vehicle and parts dealers, building materials and garden equipment and supply stores, and furniture and home furnishings, reflecting the presence of major regional retailers such as IKEA, Jordan’s Furniture, Home Depot, and other large-format commercial uses in the immediate vicinity. Together, these conditions suggest limited support for major net-new retail expansion, with future opportunity more likely tied to selective reinvestment, updated retail formats, and improved commercial positioning. Source: ESRI, ULI, RKG Associates

The 10–20 minute trade area is a supply-dominant regional market with unmet demand concentrated in general merchandise. ESRI analytics provides estimates for how much households are spending on a given retail sector, in a given geography over the course of a year. Similarly, data is provided for the sales volume in a given geography for each retail business category. Tabulating these two data sources for the Avon give an indication of how much retail spending is captured by residents versus how much is the result of visitors from outside of town.

When supply exceeds demand, that suggests local businesses are selling more than local residents spend in that category. In other words, in Avon that business is effectively exporting retail goods and importing money creating a surplus of local demand. When demand exceeds supply, this suggests that local residents spend more than local businesses can capture. This means extra spending ‘leaks’ to surrounding towns or online. At the broader 20-minute scale, the retail market becomes substantially more supply-rich and regionally competitive across most retail categories. General merchandise represents the clearest remaining unmet demand within the regional trade area, while most other sectors appear relatively well served by existing retail inventory. This pattern suggests limited support for major net-new retail expansion beyond selective, interchange-oriented commercial uses. Future retail opportunity is therefore more dependent on strategic positioning and tenant differentiation than on broad unmet regional demand. Redevelopment at Merchants Park would likely replace a portion of existing retail inventory with smaller-format and more efficient development patterns rather than materially increasing total retail square footage. Source: ESRI, ULI, RKG Associates

Avon Market Overview Industrial/Flex Market

Avon’s industrial/flex submarket is experiencing elevated vacancy following a large delivery of new space in early 2026. Industrial/Flex Submarket Quick stats

Industrial/Flex Submarket Activity

31.5M

-665K

11.4%

$14.09

6.9%

Inventory SF

Vacancy Rate

Under Constr. SF

Market Asking Rent/SF

12 Mo Absorp SF

Net Absorption

Net Deliveries

Vacancy

1,000,000

20% 18%

800,000

Market Cap Rate

Note: Arrow direct & color indicate change in metric from previous quarter within the submarket.

Over the past decade, Avon’s industrial/flex submarket has generally operated in a balanced range, with vacancy largely held between 3% and 6% and net absorption fluctuating around periods of both expansion and contraction. This reflects a market that has been cyclical but broadly stable, with demand periodically offsetting small waves of new supply or localized softness. Since 2023, however, conditions have softened, with sustained negative net absorption through 2024 and 2025 contributing to rising vacancy levels. This trend culminated in 2026, when the delivery of approximately 881,000 square feet of new space pushed vacancy to nearly 12%, the highest level in the period observed. Overall, the submarket has transitioned from a relatively stable, absorption-balanced environment in the late 2010s and early 2020s to a more supply-constrained and vacancy-elevated market in recent years, driven by weaker absorption and a step-up in new deliveries. Source: Costar Analytics as of 2026 Q1

Forecast

16% 600,000 14% 400,000

12%

200,000

10% 8%

6% (200,000) 4% (400,000)

(600,000)

0% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Avon’s industrial and flex market tracks regional trends but remains small and transaction-sensitive. Industrial/Flex Market Asking Rent per SQFT Forecast

Avon

Industrial/Flex Market Vacancy Rate

Submarket

Forecast

Avon

Submarket

$20

20%

$18

18%

$16

16%

$14

14%

$12

12%

$10

10%

$0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Industrial and flex market conditions in Avon closely track broader submarket trends but remain a more affordable segment within the region. Asking rents have increased from approximately $6 per square foot in 2016 to about $12 per square foot in 2026, compared to submarket growth from roughly $7 to $14 per square foot, indicating Avon remains competitively positioned within the regional market. Vacancy in Avon is more volatile than the broader submarket due to its smaller inventory base, where individual lease transactions can have a disproportionate impact on annual rates. While submarket vacancy has generally been more stable, recent increases reflect new supply entering the market, signaling ongoing post-expansion adjustment rather than a fully stabilized condition. Overall, Avon’s industrial and flex market is regionally aligned but highly sensitive to individual transactions, with limited capacity to independently influence pricing or absorption trends. Source: CoStar, Oxford Economics

Industrial performance in Avon is transaction-driven and highly sensitive to individual lease activity. Industrial/Flex Leasing Activity Avon

Months on Market

Submarket Industrial/Flex Properties

Submarket

18.0

1,000,000

16.0

900,000 800,000

14.0

700,000

12.0

600,000

10.0

500,000

8.0

400,000

6.0

300,000

4.0

200,000

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

100,000

2.0

0.0 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Leasing activity in Avon and the broader submarket reflects a shift from post-pandemic absorption to more normalized, transaction-driven conditions. While the submarket maintains more consistent volume, Avon’s performance is more episodic due to its smaller inventory and reliance on individual leases.

Lease-up timelines have also returned to more typical levels after a period of unusually fast absorption, indicating that earlier tight market conditions have eased. For Avon’s industrial market, this suggests demand is not broad-based or sustained, but instead driven by individual transactions within a larger regional cycle, resulting in uneven absorption and limited capacity for consistent growth. Source: CoStar, Oxford Economics

Avon’s industrial demand is modest, with regional trends reflecting structural changes across sectors.

Projected Industrial/Flex Space Demand by Employment Sector 2025 - 2035 Avon Change In Employment

SF Demand Projection

Norfolk County Change In Employment

SF Demand Projection

Construction

4,553

783

117,517

Wholesale Trade

(19)

(9,768)

(662)

(347,640)

Transportation and Warehousing

11,068

799

395,674

Manufacturing

(7)

(5,091)

(678)

(508,698)

Total 10-Year Space Demand Projection

761

242

(343,148)

2-digit NAICS Industry Sector

Source: Lightcast QCEW Estimates 2025 Q3, RKG Associates

A space demand model based on ten-year employment projections for Avon and Norfolk County indicates modest growth in industries that typically generate industrial and flex space demand, including construction and transportation and warehousing. In Avon, projected employment growth in these sectors translates to demand for less than 1,000 square feet of additional industrial and flex space, primarily driven by transportation and warehousing. This reflects limited but targeted demand tied to local business expansion and small-scale space needs. At the regional level, transportation and warehousing is expected to generate approximately 396,000 square feet of new industrial and flex demand. However, this is offset by projected declines in manufacturing and wholesale trade, resulting in a net reduction of roughly 343,000 square feet across the county, reflecting structural shifts in industrial composition rather than overall contraction. Overall, Avon’s industrial and flex demand is limited and locally driven, while regional activity reflects structural shifts across industries rather than net growth.

Since 2016, new industrial/flex development has remained active in the Avon submarket.

105 Memorial Dr Avon, MA Year Built: 2023 RBA: 4,800 SF Type: Industrial Warehouse Occupancy: 100%

1145 Bedford St Abington, MA Year Built: 2021 RBA: 4,810 SF Type: Flex/Light Industrial Occupancy: 100%

40 Arnold St Braintree, MA Year Built: 2024 RBA: 10,416 SF Type: Industrial Warehouse Occupancy: 100%

Over the past decade, the submarket has added 15 new industrial and flex buildings, with approximately seven additional projects proposed, totaling roughly 567,000 square feet of new space. Much of this development is concentrated in larger nodes such as Braintree, reflecting the role of higher-capacity submarkets in accommodating regional growth. In contrast, Avon has seen more limited development activity, with one project delivered in 2023 that is now fully leased and on the market for sale, indicating stable underlying demand but a more constrained development pipeline. Taken together with limited local demand growth and a transaction-driven leasing environment, this suggests that future industrial development in Avon is likely to be limited in scale and best suited to smaller, well-located projects that align with localized demand and existing site constraints.

Source: CoStar, Oxford Economics

Buildout Analysis Existing Zoning and Potential Future Zoning Scenarios

Key Findings Both Merchants Park and Avon Industrial Park are non-residential districts, with no allowance for multifamily or other residential uses under current zoning. Merchants Park is primarily structured for commercial uses, with office and medical office as the most viable by-right development opportunities. Avon Industrial Park is a fully industrial employment district that supports a broad range of industrial, flex, office, and lab uses by right. In both districts, parking requirements are a primary constraint on redevelopment, limiting buildable square footage and site efficiency. Environmental constraints, including floodplain and water protection overlays in both areas further restrict development capacity. 50

Buildout Analysis Overview The buildout analysis evaluates the development capacity of Merchant’s Park and Avon Industrial Park under existing zoning and a market-informed future scenario. The purpose is to understand how current regulations translate into development potential, and how alternative use assumptions could better align with observed market conditions and demographic trends. The analysis is structured in two components: • Existing zoning scenario: evaluates as-of-right development potential based on current regulatory standards • Future scenario: incorporates revised use mixes and development intensities informed by market conditions Both scenarios are applied consistently across the two study areas: • Merchant’s Park • Avon Industrial Park

Existing Zoning Framework The table below summarizes the primary zoning controls used to estimate development capacity under existing conditions in each study area. Standard

Merchants Park

Avon Industrial Park

Minimum Lot Size

40,000 SF

Maximum Lot Coverage

60%

Height

40 ft (≈3 stories)

52 ft (≈2 stories)

Parking Requirement

1 space / 300 SF

1 space / 800 SF

*Buildout capacity is constrained by the most limiting of zoning controls, including lot coverage, height, and parking requirements, with parking functioning as the primary limiting factors in most parcels.

Source: Avon Zoning Ordinance, RKG Associates

Land Utilization Under Current Zoning Parcels were evaluated under current zoning to assess the degree to which existing development utilizes allowable density, incorporating both land use and dimensional constraints. For each parcel, a buildout ratio was calculated comparing existing development to maximum permitted zoning capacity. This ratio was used to classify parcels into redevelopment potential categories: • High Potential (≤ 40% utilization): Significant remaining capacity for additional development under current zoning • Moderate Potential (40–70% utilization): Partial redevelopment opportunity with some remaining capacity • Low Potential (70–95% utilization): Limited additional capacity before reaching zoning constraints • Built Out (≥ 95% utilization): Fully or nearly fully developed under current zoning standards This classification provides a consistent framework for identifying where redevelopment potential remains within the existing regulatory environment and where parcels are effectively constrained under current zoning conditions.

Source: RKG Associates

Future Scenario Overview The future buildout scenario evaluates development capacity under revised assumptions informed by local market conditions, demographic trends, and observed development patterns in comparable submarkets. Unlike the existing zoning scenario, this approach tests how alternative assumptions regarding allowable uses and development intensities may influence feasible development outcomes in Avon. The zoning parameters used for Merchants Park were modeled after Avon’s existing Village Overlay District to reflect a more flexible commercial development framework. Key adjustments include: • Revised use mixes based on market feasibility (e.g., reduced reliance on weak-performing uses) • Adjusted intensity assumptions where zoning appears out of scale with regional norms • Modified parking assumptions where appropriate to reflect mixed-use or higher-efficiency development formats This scenario is applied consistently across: • Merchants Park • Avon Industrial Park

Merchant’s Park Future Scenario The future scenario for Merchants Park tests a more flexible mixed-use development framework informed by local demand patterns and comparable regional infill projects. This scenario is not reflective of current zoning permissions but is used to evaluate potential outcomes under a rezoning or overlay condition.

Key assumptions include: • Introduction of residential as a primary use component • Ground-floor active uses (retail and/or restaurant) at a smaller, neighborhood scale • Reduced reliance on traditional office uses given soft submarket fundamentals • Higher-density residential formats aligned with submarket multifamily demand Development intensity is adjusted to reflect: • Comparable mixed-use projects in the broader submarket • Feasible parking reductions under shared-use configurations • More efficient building massing consistent with recent infill development patterns • Reduced minimum lot size Key takeaway: Merchant’s Park demonstrates potential to transition from a primarily commercial format to a mixed-use redevelopment opportunity supported by regional residential demand. 55

Avon Industrial Park Future Scenario The future scenario for Avon Industrial Park maintains a focus on industrial and flex uses while introducing limited flexibility for complementary non-industrial uses where market conditions support diversification. Key assumptions include: • Continued emphasis on industrial and flex development as the primary use • Potential introduction of limited service, trade, or supporting commercial uses • Recognition of softer recent performance and elevated vacancy in the short term • Adjusted intensity assumptions where underutilization is observed in existing parcels This scenario reflects: • Recent volatility in industrial leasing activity • Large-scale deliveries contributing to short-term vacancy increases • Long-term demand for well-located flex and service-oriented space Key takeaway: Avon Industrial Park remains primarily industrial but may support selective diversification depending on sitespecific conditions.

Future Zoning Framework The table below summarizes the primary zoning controls used to estimate development capacity under potential conditions in each study area. Standards*

Merchant’s Park

Avon Industrial Park

Minimum Lot Size

8,000 SF

40,000 SF

Maximum Lot Coverage

40%

60%

Height

55 ft (≈4 stories)

60 ft (≈3 stories)

Parking Requirement

1.5/unit, 1 space / 500 SF

1 space / 600 SF

Source: RKG Associates

Land Utilization Under Future Zoning Parcels were evaluated under potential future zoning to assess the degree to which existing development utilizes potential allowable density, incorporating both land use and dimensional constraints. For each parcel, a buildout ratio was calculated comparing existing development to a potential maximum permitted zoning capacity. This ratio was used to classify parcels into redevelopment potential categories: • High Potential (≤ 40% utilization): Significant remaining capacity for additional development under current zoning • Moderate Potential (40–70% utilization): Partial redevelopment opportunity with some remaining capacity • Low Potential (70–95% utilization): Limited additional capacity before reaching zoning constraints • Built Out (≥ 95% utilization): Fully or nearly fully developed under current zoning standards This classification provides a consistent framework for identifying where redevelopment potential remains within a future regulatory environment.

Source: RKG Associates

Existing vs Future Buildout Comparison The table below summarizes the difference between existing development conditions in Avon and estimated future buildout potential under the market-informed scenarios. The “Total Gain” figures represent a high-level estimate of additional square footage that could be supported across the two study areas under these assumptions, illustrating the scale of redevelopment capacity when market conditions and zoning flexibility are aligned.

Study Area

Existing Building GFA

Total Future Zoning Capacity

Total Future Commercial GFA

Total Future Residential GFA

Estimated Unit Capacity*

Merchant’s Park

877,972 SF

3,542,485 SF

885,621 SF

2,656,864 SF

2,258 units

Avon Industrial

2,836,316 SF

14,016,621 SF

n/a

*Potential unit capacity reflects a theoretical full redevelopment of Merchants Park under a mixed-use scenario, assuming three residential floors and an average unit size of 1,000 square feet per unit. **Buildout estimates reflect only the parcels highlighted in the preceding map. Total square footage and unit capacity projections vary based on the parcel selection assumptions applied in each scenario. Source: RKG Associates, MassGIS

Land Utilization Under Future Zoning Removing Parcels Unlikely to Redevelop Given the magnitude of potential buildout identified in the future scenario, a third constrained scenario was developed to reflect a more realistic subset of parcels higher redevelopment likelihood. In Merchant’s Park, the analysis excludes the Jordan’s Furniture, Home Depot, and Floor & Decor parcels, which are large-format retail sites with limited redevelopment likelihood.

In Avon Industrial Park, the scenario removes properties between Page Street and Wales Avenue, reflecting areas with higher physical constraints and irregular parcel configurations that limit redevelopment feasibility. The adjustment provides a more conservative estimate of redevelopment potential by excluding parcels that are unlikely to transition under either current zoning or market-informed scenarios. As a result, this scenario represents a constrained buildout condition that better reflects realistic, parcellevel redevelopment likelihood rather than theoretical capacity.

Source: RKG Associates

Existing vs Constrained Future Buildout Comparison The table below summarizes the difference between existing development conditions in Avon and estimated buildout potential under the constrained future scenario. The “Total Gain” figures represent a high-level estimate of additional square footage that could be supported across the two study areas under these assumptions, providing a more conservative view of redevelopment capacity.

Future Total Future Commercial Commercial GFA after GFA* Redevelopment

Study Area

Existing Building GBA

Future Zoning Capacity

Merchant’s Park

228,915 SF

1,747,599 SF

436,900 SF

Avon Industrial

2,747,996 SF

11,033,655 SF

Total Future Residential GFA

Estimated Unit Capacity**

1,085,957 SF

1,310,699 SF

1,114 units

11,121,975 SF

n/a

*"Total Future Commercial GFA" = redevelopment capacity + existing buildings remaining. **Potential unit capacity reflects a theoretical full redevelopment of Merchants Park under a mixed-use scenario, assuming three residential floors and an average unit size of 1,000 square feet per unit. ***Buildout estimates reflect only the parcels highlighted in the preceding map. Total square footage and unit capacity projections vary based on the parcel selection assumptions applied in each scenario.

Source: RKG Associates, MassGIS

Given the magnitude of potential buildout identified in the future scenario, a fourth constrained scenario was developed to reflect a narrower subset of parcels with higher redevelopment likelihood and more conservative development assumptions.

Land Utilization Under Future Zoning with Additional Redevelopment Constraints

In Merchant’s Park, the analysis focused only on parcels capable of supporting redevelopment projects with more than 20 residential units at an assumed density of 25 units per acre. Similar to Scenario 3, the Jordan’s Furniture, Home Depot, and Floor & Decor parcels were excluded due to their continued viability as large-format retail sites and limited likelihood of redevelopment. In Avon Industrial Park, the scenario further constrained redevelopment assumptions by limiting new development to a single floor and continuing to exclude properties between Page Street and Wales Avenue, where physical constraints and irregular parcel configurations reduce redevelopment feasibility. Additional parcels that appear unlikely to redevelop due to existing site buildout conditions or other development constraints were also removed from the analysis. These adjustments provide a more conservative estimate of redevelopment potential by focusing on parcels with stronger near- to mid-term transition likelihood under both market and zoning considerations. As a result, this scenario represents a highly constrained buildout condition intended to reflect realistic parcel-level redevelopment potential rather than theoretical maximum capacity. Source: RKG Associates

Existing vs Further Constrained Future Buildout Comparison The table below summarizes the difference between existing development conditions on the selected parcels in Avon and estimated buildout potential under the highly constrained future scenario. The “Total Gain” figures represent a high-level estimate of additional square footage that could be supported across the two study areas under these refined assumptions, incorporating both reduced redevelopment likelihood and more conservative development intensity assumptions. As a result, this scenario provides a narrower estimate of redevelopment capacity intended to better reflect realistic parcel-level redevelopment potential.

Study Area

Existing Building GBA

Future Zoning Capacity

Future Commercial GFA after Redevelopment

Merchant’s Park

176,720 SF

1,616,448 SF

404,112 SF

Avon Industrial

2,218,797 SF

5,666,047 SF***

5,666,047 SF

Total Future Commercial GFA*

Total Future Residential GFA

Estimated Unit Capacity**

1,105,364 SF

1,212,336 SF

760 units

6,283,566 SF

n/a

*’Total Future Commercial GFA" = redevelopment capacity + existing buildings remaining. **Potential unit capacity reflects a theoretical full redevelopment of Merchants Park under a mixed-use scenario. Average unit size varies by scenario based on applicable zoning constraints — where dwelling units per acre limits unit count and a 25% commercial floor area requirement applies to 3-floor residential buildings, residential GFA is distributed across fewer units, resulting in a higher average sf/unit for those scenarios. ***Current zoning assumptions in Avon Industrial Park allow for two-story development, whereas the future zoning scenario limits redevelopment to a single story, resulting in lower overall development capacity. ****Buildout estimates reflect only the parcels highlighted in the preceding map. Total square footage and unit capacity projections vary based on the parcel selection assumptions applied in each scenario.

Source: RKG Associates, MassGIS

Finally, a fifth constrained scenario was developed to focus on a limited subset of parcels within Merchant’s Park exhibiting the strongest redevelopment potential. This scenario narrows the analysis exclusively to a small group of parcels under common ownership, selected based on parcel configuration, location, and redevelopment feasibility. The scenario applies the same development assumptions established under Scenario 4, including a minimum redevelopment threshold of 20 residential units and an assumed residential density of 25 units per acre.

Land Utilization Under Future Zoning with Additional Redevelopment Constraints: Common Ownership Parcels

The analysis focuses specifically on five parcels associated with the Messina properties, while continuing to exclude largeformat retail sites such as Jordan’s Furniture, Home Depot, and Floor & Decor, which are considered unlikely to transition in the foreseeable future. By concentrating on a small number of coordinated redevelopment sites under common ownership, this scenario represents a highly targeted buildout condition intended to reflect a more achievable near- to mid-term redevelopment opportunity rather than broader theoretical redevelopment capacity across Merchant’s Park.

Source: RKG Associates

Existing vs Targeted Common Ownership in Merchant’s Park Buildout Comparison The table below summarizes the difference between existing development conditions in Merchant’s Park and estimated buildout potential under the highly constrained common ownership scenario. The “Total Gain” figures represent a high-level estimate of additional square footage that could be supported across the selected parcels under these assumptions, providing a narrowly defined view of redevelopment capacity focused on the Messina-owned properties.

Study Area

Existing Building GBA

Future Zoning Capacity

Future Commercial GFA after Redevelopment

Merchant’s Park

170,640 SF

1,303,215 SF

325,804 SF

Total Future Commercial GFA*

1,033,136 SF

Total Future Residential GFA

Estimated Unit Capacity**

977,411 SF

693 units**

*’Total Future Commercial GFA" = redevelopment capacity + existing buildings remaining. **Potential unit capacity reflects a theoretical full redevelopment of Merchants Park under a mixed-use scenario. Average unit size varies by scenario based on applicable zoning constraints — where dwelling units per acre limits unit count and a 25% commercial floor area requirement applies to 3-floor residential buildings, residential GFA is distributed across fewer units, resulting in a higher average sf/unit for those scenarios. ***Buildout estimates reflect only the parcels highlighted in the preceding map. Total square footage and unit capacity projections vary based on the parcel selection assumptions applied in each scenario.

Source: RKG Associates, MassGIS

Merchant’s Park and Avon Industrial Park Market and Buildout Analysis June 2026