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MARKET INTELLIGENCE

2020 Q3 ATLANTA, GEORGIA

ENGEL & VÖLKERS ATLANTA

FMLS Area 21 The Impact of COVID-19

The World Health Organization officially declared coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of September 1, it’s infected over 35 million worldwide and over 7 million in the U.S. This has taken a toll on the U.S. economy and spiked unemployment. Even so, the economy is showing early signs of recovery.

While many unknown factors still cloud predictions on the economic future, the housing market in Atlanta, continues to show signs of healthy growth. Inventory is still low, and demand continues to increase.

Given these extraordinary times, Engel & Völkers Atlanta is taking an exceptionally close look at the Atlanta real estate market to better understand and anticipate market conditions.

Weekly Covid-19 Cases and Pending Sales YTY %

Change Atlanta

Covid-19 Weekly Cases

New Pending Sales with Lag

New Pending Sales Forecast

*Source: MarketNSight

January 1 - September 30 WeeklyAtlanta New Pending Sales

New Pending Sales 2019

New Pending Sales 2020 with Lag

New Pending Sales 2020 Forecast

*Source: MarketNSight

Source: 7/1/2020 – 9/30/2020 provided by FMLS

Permit Trend 1/2004 - 8/2020

Atlanta

Permits / Month

12 Month Moving Average

*Source: MarketNSight

Given the data above, alongside the analysis of industry experts, such as John Hunt of MarketNSight, Robert Dietz, the NAHB Chief Economist, and Georgia State University’s Chief Economist Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, here are some key takeaways:

• It’s obvious that the desire for people to own a home in Atlanta is still very strong and getting stronger.

• Underlying strength of the Atlanta real estate market coupled with ultra-low interest rates means a quick recovery should another shut down occur.

• We are continuing to see evidence that housing is maintaining its traditional role of leading the country out of this recession.

Source: 7/1/2020 – 9/30/2020 provided by FMLS

FMLS Area 21 The Impact of COVID-19

Source: 7/1/2020 – 9/30/2020 provided by FMLS

As we move through the next few months, it will be important to remember that, as the data shows, there is still a supply and demand issue. Industry expert and NAHB Chief Economist, Robert Dietz, says it best- “The housing sector enters this recession underbuilt rather than overbuilt. That means as the economy rebounds — which it is beginning to — housing is set to help lead the way out.”

We’ll be releasing another detailed report at the end of 2020, make sure you’re signed up to receive it by clicking below.

Source: 7/1/2020 – 9/30/2020 provided by FMLS

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A WORD FROM US

As the economy in Georgia continues to come back to life and the city continues to grapple with the effects of the pandemic, we continue to monitor data each day in an effort to keep our clients and company informed on the state of the real estate market. On the following pages of this report you will find a cohesive set of data points which help showcase current market conditions in the condominium, townhome, and single-family home markets of areas and neighborhoods within metro-Atlanta.

Overall, the third quarter of 2020 has shown little change in supply levels for townhomes and condos, while the single-family home supply levels continue to decrease. As expected, overall supply levels remain well below stable market conditions, which translates to a 1.6-month timeline to sell all of the homes on the market. However, supply levels for higher priced homes can range widely from 2-18 months.

Economic conditions in Atlanta, like the explosive job growth and population boom, have helped this amazing city thrive in an expansionary time. However, with the COVID-19 pandemic and economic fallout surrounding it, there are many questions about the Atlanta real estate market. Like many other cities, Atlanta has experienced a sharp rise in unemployment. While many furloughed workers have been and will continue to return to work, there are many jobs that are permanently lost. Given current home inventory levels and sales data, this will have a minimal impact on the Atlanta real estate market.

We hope the information within the following pages will provide clarity and confidence in this time of change and uncertainty. We appreciate you looking through this report and hope you harness and spread the word on the insight provided within.

FMLS AREA 21

First Multiple Listing Service (FMLS) Area 21 encompasses most of Atlanta’s Buckhead Community. It includes Tuxedo Park, Mt. Paran/Northside, Chastain Park, the portion of Brookhaven that falls within Fulton County, and numerous other neighborhoods. FMLS Area 21 is bound by the Fulton/DeKalb line to the east, I-75 to the west, the City of Atlanta line to the north and I-85 to the south.

FMLS AREA 21

SUMMARY OF MARKET ACTIVITY

ATTACHED HOMES

The following table shows activity for attached homes (condos and townhomes) in FMLS Area 21 from July, 1 2020 thru September, 30 2020.

Source: FMLS Absorption Analysis Report Trailing 3 Months from 9/30/20

DETACHED HOMES

The following table shows activity for detached homes (single family) in FMLS Area 21 from July, 1 2020 thru September, 30 2020.

Source: FMLS Absorption Analysis Report Trailing 3 Months from 9/30/20

Condominiums FMLS AREA 21

SUMMARY OF CONDOMINIUM MARKET ACTIVITY

The number of active condo listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 26% on a year-over-year basis from 1,175 in Q3 2020 to 1,489 in Q3 2020. The number of new condo listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 38% on a year-over-year basis from 433 in Q3 2019 to 598 in Q3 2020. The number of condo sales in FMLS Area 21 decreased 3% on a year-over-year basis from 277 in Q3 2019 to 269 in Q3 2020. The months of inventory for condos in FMLS Area 21 increased 33% on a year-over-year basis from 4 months in Q3 2019 to 6 months in Q3 2020.

MARKET ACTIVITY DASHBOARD | Q3 2020 vs Q3 2019

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS +26.2%

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS +38.1%

NUMBER OF CLOSINGS -2.9% MONTHS OF INVENTORY +33.3%

SALE PRICE -1.3%

SALE PRICE -1.9% SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE RATIO +1.2%

MEDIAN CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET -2.7%

The number of active condo listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 27% on a yearover-year basis from 1,175 in Q3 2020 to 1,489 in Q3 2020.

The number of new condo listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 38% on a yearover-year basis from 433 in Q3 2019 to 598 in Q3 2020.

year

The number of condo sales in FMLS Area 21 decreased 3% on a year-over-

basis from 277 in Q3 2019 to 269 in Q3 2020.

FMLS AREA 21

SUMMARY OF TOWNHOME MARKET ACTIVITY

The number of active townhome listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 16% on a year-over-year basis from 303 in Q3 2020 to 350 in Q3 2020. The number of new townhome listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 21% on a year-over-year basis from 117 in Q3 2019 to 142 in Q3 2020. The number of townhome sales in FMLS Area 21 increased 12% on a year-over-year basis from 59 in Q3 2019 to 66 in Q3 2020. The months of inventory for townhomes in FMLS Area 21 decreased 6% on a year-over-year basis from 6 months in Q3 2019 to 5 months in Q3 2020.

MARKET ACTIVITY DASHBOARD | Q3 2020 vs Q3 2019

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS +15.5%

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS +21.4% NUMBER OF CLOSINGS +11.9% MONTHS OF INVENTORY -6.2% MEDIAN SALE PRICE

AVERAGE SALE PRICE -4.5% SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE RATIO +0.6%

MEDIAN CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET +19.8%

The number of active townhome listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 16% on a year-over-year basis from 303 in Q3 2020 to 350 in Q3 2020.

The number of new townhome listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 21% on a year-over-year basis from 117 in Q3 2019 to 142 in Q3 2020.

The number of townhome sales in FMLS Area 21 increased 12% on a yearover-year basis from 59 in Q3 2019 to 66 in Q3 2020.

Single-Family FMLS AREA 21

SUMMARY OF SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED MARKET ACTIVITY

The number of active single-family listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 4% on a year-over-year basis from 1379 in Q3 2019 to 1433 in Q3 2020. The number of new single-family home listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 29% on a year-over-year basis from 424 in Q3 2019 to 548 in Q3 2020. The number of single-family home sales in FMLS Area 21 increased 25% on a year-over-year basis from 261 in Q3 2019 to 327 in Q3 2020. The months of inventory for single-family homes in FMLS Area 21 decreased 16% on a year-over-year basis from 5 months in Q3 2019 to 4 months in Q3 2020.

MARKET ACTIVITY DASHBOARD | Q3 2020 vs Q3 2019

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS

NUMBER OF CLOSINGS

SALE PRICE

SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE RATIO +4.3%

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

AVERAGE SALE PRICE

MEDIAN CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET +0.0%

The number of active single-family listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 4% on a year-over-year basis from 1379 in Q3 2019 to 1433 in Q3 2020.

The number of new single-family home listings in FMLS Area 21 increased 29% on a year-over-year basis from 424 in Q3 2019 to 548 in Q3 2020.

The number of single-family home sales in FMLS Area 21 increased 25% on a year-over-year basis from 261 in Q3 2019 to 327 in Q3 2020.

FMLS AREA 22

First Multiple Listing Service (FMLS) Area 22 includes Downtown and Atlanta’s westside neighborhoods. It includes Home Park, x Heights, Castleberry Hill, Blandtown, the portion of Buckhead that falls south of I-75 and numerous other neighborhoods. FMLS Area 22 is bound by the connector (I-75/85) to the east, the Chattahoochee River and I-285 to the west, I-75 to the north and I-20 to the south.