RES E A RC H & A N A LYS I S
DETECTING THE PATH OF EGYPT’S
PETROLEUM
SECTOR ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION
OVER FYS (2014/15- 2018/19) BY AMINA HUSSEIN, REHAM GAMAL, AND TASNEEM MADI
T
he petroleum sector is considered one of the engines of the Egyptian economic growth. Over fiscal years (FYs) 2014/15-2018/ contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) significantly amounted to about EGP 342 billion, on annual average. Meanwhile, the sec to attract average investments of about EGP 70 billion annually, representing more than one-eighth of the total investments, according t Economic Development’s (MPED) data. This was a result of the ministry of petroleum’s (MoP) plan to encourage and promote the Exploration in different regions. From the country’s Balance of Payments (BOP) side, the petroleum sector’s exports accounted for $8.5 billion (EGP 143.3 exceeding one-third of the total exports, according to the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) data.
This report sheds light on the economic contribution of the Egyptian petroleum sector by addressing different angles during the above-mentio report, all numbers in dollars are converted to their equivalent in EGP on the basis of 2019 average exchange rates.
1. PETROLEUM EXTRACTIONS GDP
85% of total GDP. On the other hand the private sector contributed only E billion, representing 15% of total GDP, according to the MPED's data. Over FYs 2014/15-2018/19, petroleum extractions GDP- crude oil and natural gas extracts - contributed a total of EGP 1,711 billion, representing about 9% of the total GDP. Petroleum extractions GDP severely declined by 37% from EGP 282.1 billion in Petroleum Extractions GDP per(EGP Sector billion) FY 2014/15 to EGP 178.2 billion in FY 2015/16. Yet, the extractions have witnessed an increasing trend since FY 2016/17 to hit the highest value in FY 2018/19 at EGP Public Private 545.9 billion, according to the MPED’s data. Despite the increasing value of the petroleum extractions GDP since FY 2016/17, the extractions’ share in the total GDP has declined. The share dropped from 58% in FY 2016/17 to 50% and 29% in FYs 2017/18 and 2018/19 respectively, according to the MPED's data.
466.7 361.9 240.2
238.6
(%)GDP Petroleum Extractions Share in Total
151.9 43.5
26.3
61.4
41.5
79.1
FY 2014/15
11 7
8
10
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
11
A. NATURAL GAS SHARE IN THE GDP
Natural gas extracts contributed a total of EGP 897.9 billion in the GDP ov 2014/15 to 2018/19. Natural gas extraction activities tracked an increasing FY 2015/16, with an average annual growth rate of 52%. FY 2018/19 rema 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 highest growth rate for natural gas extraction activities, with a 35% increa The public sector dominates petroleum extractions GDP. Thus, over FY the2015/16 referredrepresents the lowest rate recording a decline of 40% in comp to representing the previous year, according to the MPED’s data. period, the public sector contributed a total GDP of EGP 1,596 billion, FY
12 EGYPT OIL & GAS NEWSPAPER