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TheTruthAboutEnergy
Thetransitiontorenewableenergyisvitalandfast-paced,buthowdowechoosewhich technologiestodrivethisenergytransition?Thistimelybookprovideseveryone interestedintherenewableenergytransitionwithanintroductiontoandtechnical foundationforunderstandingmodernenergytechnology.Ittraceseverydaypower generationthroughhistory,fromtheIndustrialRevolutiontotoday.Itexaminestheuse ofwood,coal,oil,naturalgas,hydro,andnucleartoproduceenergy,beforediscussing renewableenergysourcessuchasbiomass,photovoltaics,concentratedsolarpower, wind,wave,andgeothermal.Thebookexaminestowhatextentandhoweach technologycancontributetoaclean,greeninfrastructure. TheTruthAboutEnergy explainsthescienceandengineeringofenergytohelpeveryoneunderstandand comparecurrentandfutureadvancesinrenewableenergy,providingthecontextto criticallyexaminethedifferenttechnologiesthatarecompetinginafast-evolving engineering,political,andeconomiclandscape.
johnk.white isaphysicist,writer,andeducator,whohasworkedinthe engineering,science,andeducation fieldsinCanada,theNetherlands,Ireland,and Spain.HeistheeditorofthewebsiteE21NS(Energyinthe21stCenturyNewsService) andauthorof DotheMath!OnGrowth,Greed,andStrategicThinking (Sage).Hewas alecturerintheSchoolofPhysics,UniversityCollegeDublin,andtheDepartmentof Education,UniversityofOviedo,wherehetaughtcoursesinatomicphysics,optics,and scienceeducation.
“White’swritingconvincinglyglidesbetweenscientificandtechnological descriptionsofenergyandthesocialworldinwhichthosedescriptionsbothform, andareformedby,thatsamescienceandtechnology.Partexposé,partexplanatory guide,thebookprovidesanexcellentandbalancedfoundationfromwhichto understandthetransitionswemustundergoinourtroubledrelationshipto energy.Theanalysisisthoroughlyresearchedandnotshyaboutnamingnamesasit buildsuponspecifics.Nowthrownintocrisismode,wefaceextremely consequentialchoices – digestingthisbookenablesthereadertounderstandthe socialconsequencesofenergychoices.”
ProfessorKirkW.Junker,Vice-RectorforSustainability, UniversityofCologne
“Writtenbyaphysicistwhohasdonehishomework – onchemistry,biology,and evensomesocialscience – thisisawell-informedandengagingbookthatconveys theexcitementtheauthorbelievesweshouldallfeelaboutrenewableenergy.For thosewiththeinterest,thereisampletechnologicalandhistoricalbackgroundto understandthecomplextechnologiesonoffer,bothrenewableandnon-renewable. Buttherearealsopersonalasidesandcharmingjuxtapositions,suchaswhenafusion reactorandVincentvanGoghsharespacewithinasingleparagraph.Theauthor ’s interestsarewide-rangingand,despitemyownbackgroundinthetopicshecovers,I learnedalot.Icanreadilyseeincorporatingitasasupplementarytextinacoursein environmentalstudies,energysystems,ortechnology.”
Dr.EricKemp-Benedict,AssociateProfessorofEcologicalEconomics, UniversityofLeeds
TheTruthAboutEnergy
JOHNK.WHITE
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Title:Thetruthaboutenergy:ourfossil-fueladdictionandthetransitiontorenewables/John K.White.
Description:Cambridge;NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversityPress,[2023]|Includes bibliographicalreferencesandindex. Identifiers:LCCN2023026500(print)|LCCN2023026501(ebook)|ISBN9781009433198 (paperback)|ISBN9781009433181(ebook)
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ForBelén
2.8SaudiArabia,OPEC,andthePolitics/PriceofOil
2.9OilBasics:Who,What,Where
2.10ModernOilExtractionandaContinuingBlackGold Economy
2.11ShaleOilExtraction:Frack,Rattle,andRoll
2.12ShaleOilBlues:Production,Distribution,Pollution
2.13MoreDarkSides:Pipelines,Railways,OilSands, andClimateCatastrophe
2.14CarbonCapture:IndustrySaviororPie-in-the-Sky Technology?
2.15PeakOilandtheDownwardSideofGrowth
3.1NuclearFission:TurningMassintoEnergy
3.2NuclearBeginnings:AtomsforWar
3.3TheOriginsofNuclearPower:AtomsforWarandPeace
3.4Radiation:WhatYouDon’tSeeIsWhatYouGet
3.5Radiation:Long-TermEffects
3.6NuclearWasteProducts:ImpossibletoIgnore
3.7NuclearSafetySystems:CanWeEverBe100%Sure?
3.8Fukushima:TheLastNuclearDisasterorPortentofMore?
3.9TheStateoftheArt:IsThereaNuclearFuture?
3.10Fusion:ThePoweroftheFuture,ComingSoonat
4.3TheFirstSolarRevolution:PassiveSunPower
4.4WhatIsPhoto-Voltaic?TheScienceof “Harvesting theSun”
4.5SolidStateFundamentals:RedirectingElectrons
4.6FromChipsandSolarCellstoLEDsandLight
4.7EntertheSolarPanel:TheSunforHire
4.8ThePVMarket:AtHomeandintheLab
4.9TheSolarField:BiggerandBetterYearonYear
4.10Utility-ScaleSolar:TheNewandtheOldRevamped
4.11Change:TheEndandtheBeginningoftheRevolutions
5TheOldBecomesNewAgain:MoreSustainableEnergy
5.1TheWindsofChange
5.2Onshore,Offshore,NIMBY,PIMBY
5.3TheHotEarthRises:GeothermalComesofAge
5.4HydroelectricPower:EarthandWaterMakeElectricity
5.5HydroelectricPower:ATwentieth-CenturyExplosion 418
5.6MarineEnergy:NotJustFallingWater
5.7Yesterday’sElectricalPowerSystem:Top-Down Management
5.8Tomorrow’sElectricalPowerSystem:TheSmart GridfromMacrotoMicro
5.9TheFutureofElectricity:MoreEfficientChargeStorage
6DrivingtheRevolutionRevolution:FromVoltatoTesla andBack
6.1DrivingtheFuture:ElectricChargePowerstheWay
6.2DemocratizingtheCarIndustryfromtheTopDown 461
6.3ANewEVWorld:TheFutureIsAlreadyHere 469
6.4TheRevolutionRevolution:ExhaustOptional 478
6.5TheNewMachine:AutonomousandSemi-Autonomous Driving
6.6Twenty-First-CenturyTransit:E-Planes,E-Trains, andE-Automobiles
6.7IndustrialStorage:TheUpsandDownsofManaged Energy(PumpedHydro,Thermal,CompressedAir,etc.) 496
6.8HydrogenGas:ANewOldPretender?
6.9IndustrialChargeStorage:TheFutureofLithium 517
6.10AnEnergyTechnologyRevolution:YouAin’tSeen Nothin’ Yet
6.11TheCostofRevolution:HowandWhenWhoGetsWhat
7.1ThinkGloballyandActLocally:WeCanAllMakea Difference
7.2RethinkingtheFuture:QuickandEasySolutions
7.3EverydayTransitforEverydayPeople:Shareand ShareAlike 561
7.4Reducing,Reusing,Recycling,etc.
7.5ThePlasticsProblem:Reducing,Returning, Researching,etc.
7.6TheCircularEconomy:SayNotoWaste
7.7ShrinkingOurEnergyImpact:AFewComparisons
7.8WeAreNotAlone:LessIsMore
Preface
Theword revolution was firstemployedtomean “greatchange” afterthe1543 publicationof OntheRevolutionsoftheHeavenlySpheres bythePolish mathematician,astronomer,andclergymanNicolausCopernicus.Positing acentralsuntoexplainthepreciseworkingsofaseeminglycomplicated celestialsky,thesimplerheliocentricsolarsystemshooktheMiddleAges fromitslongintellectualslumber,correctinganoutdatedmodeloftheheavens thathadbecomeoverlycumbersomeandunwieldy.Atthesametime,antiquatedpoliticalsystemsrunbyhereditaryroyalsandaristocraticcliquesbegan topplingtodifferingdegreesinthenewlyemergingnationstatesacrossthe globe.
Butthepowers-that-bedon’tcedecontroleasily,keentomaintainorderand protecttheirvastamountsoftributewealth.Thenewthinkingwassubjectedto scornandridicule,althoughultimatelynoonecouldstopwhathadbecome clear:thattheEarthwasnotthecenteroftheuniverse(noreventhecenterofits ownsolarsystem)andthattherightsofmanweremoreimportantthanthe wealthofafewelitesandtheirfamilies.Andthereweremorechangestocome. Fromthe1830son,theIndustrialRevolutionbeganremakingalabor-intensive, agrariansocietyintoanenergy-based,consumer-ledworld,wheremachines andfossil-fuelenergyreplacedanimalandhumanmuscle,whilethe InformationRevolutionofthe1960soverhauledhowwecreate,store,and exchangeinformationwiththeadventofthetransistor,integratedcircuit,and microprocessor,revampinganentireglobaleconomyandthelivesofbillions. Theramificationsofeachrevolutionarestillfelttoday,whiledisagreements aboundoverhowtoimplementthechangeswithoutundoingtheveryfabricof society.
Alltransitionstaketimebeforetherevolutionarybecomestheeveryday. Newton’s Principia waswritten144yearsafter Derevolutionibus,itselfonly
publishedafterCopernicus’sdeathforfearofcontradictingtheChurch.What’s more,Copernicuswasn’tentirelymodern,stillharboringPtolemaicartifacts suchasequantsandperfectcircles,literallywheelsinsideofwheelstodescribe planetarymotion.Oftenconsideredthelastoftheoldratherthanthe firstofthe new,Copernicusnonethelessaimedtoreworkamistakenorbitalgeometryby puttingtheSunatthecenter,laboringforfourdecadesinhissparetimeas adevoutPolishclergyman.Bydoingawaywitha14-centuries-old,Earthcenteredsolarsystem,despiteincludingnumerousPtolemaic fixes,Copernicus pavedthewayforGalileo,Kepler,andNewton,whorefinedwhathecouldnot tosecuretherevolution.Galileowouldalsosufferforhisbeliefs,incarcerated bytheChurchandsubjectedtocondemnation,butNewtonwould finallyput paidtoAristotle,Ptolemy,andtheChurch’sbeliefthattheEarthdidn’tmove. Progressisslow:1,400yearsforaPolishclergymanandastronomyhobbyistto overturnPtolemy(2,000ifwegobacktoAristotle).And400moreforthe ChurchtoapologizetoGalileo,unwillingtoseewhathe(Jovianmoons), Kepler(ellipticalorbits),andNewton(inverse-squaregravitation)showed them.
Today,wearebeginninganotherrevolution,justasprofoundyetentirely differentthananythatcamebefore.Renewableenergyandconnectivityare remakingpowergenerationinathoroughlynovelway,combiningratherthan destroyingtheindustrialandtechnologicalfoundationsofthepast.Inthe comingdecades,nothingwillbethesame.Hundredsofmillionsofjobswill becreated,supplantingeconomicandpoliticalhierarchiesofthepastwith laterallyorganizedandinterconnectednodalpowerstructures.Authorand socialcriticJeremyRifkinhascalledthecomingupheavalthe “Third IndustrialRevolution” (TIR),apost-carbon,distributedcapitalism,where renewableenergyandinternettechnologies “mergetocreateapowerfulnew infrastructure.”
Othershavecalledtheongoingtransitionafourthindustrialrevolutionthat includesdisruptivetechnologiessuchastheInternetofthings,robotics,artificialintelligence,andvirtualreality.Whateverthenumberorhoweverfarwe areontheroadtoaseeminglyinevitablefuture,thenewenergysystemsare fundamentallychanginglong-establishedrelationshipsbetweenproducersand consumers,impactingeverydaybusiness,governmentaloversight,andeven ourowncivicresponsibilities.Facedwithincreasedglobalwarming,othersare alsocallingforasystematicdismantlingofouroil-addictedlivesbeforeitistoo latetomakeadifference,a.k.a.the “fossilendgame.”
Thenextrevolutionisn’tadvancingsmoothly,however,becauseofastill dominant,multitrillion-dollar,petroleum-basedeconomyattheforefrontof everydaylivingaswellasourmanyentrenchedhabits,despitediminishingoil
suppliesandincreasinglyharmfulconsequencestohealthandtheatmosphere fromburntcarbonemissions.Aswithallrevolutions,webeginthenewamid theolduntilwecannolongerignoretheobvious.Institutionalchangecomes slowly.Revolutionsaredisruptive.Theychangeeverything.
Renewableenergyisn’twellunderstoodeither,despitemuchoftheunderlyingtechnologyhavingbeenaroundforages,whethergeneratingelectrons fromphotonsinasolarcell(firstdevelopedinthe1950s),electricpropulsionin aninductionmotor(initiallydemonstratedinthe1830s),orthechemistryof chargestorageinabattery(adevicewithussince1799).Andwhiletheageof oilproducedanunparalleledexplosionofpeopleandpower – globalpopulationmorethanquadruplingtoalmosteightbillioninthelastcentury – themajor disruptionsofthetwenty-firstcenturywillberenewableenergy,electric vehicles,andstoragebatteries.Eachwillbecomecheaper,longerlasting,and ubiquitous,justaspowerstations,gasoline-poweredvehicles(gasmobiles), andelectriclightdidoveracenturyago,thanksinparttotheingenuityand inspirationofmorethanafewdedicatedinventorsandinnovators.Someare householdnames,suchasThomasEdison,NikolaTesla,andGeorge Westinghouse,whilescoresofothersarenotaswellknown,suchasCharles Parson,WilliamStanley,andSamuelInsull.
InPartI,Iexaminecoal,oil,andnuclearpower,technologiesthatcreatedour modernindustrialworldandwillcontinuetoproduceenergyfordecadesto come,increasinglysoinsomecountries.Knowingmoreaboutfossilfuelsis essentialtounderstandthefeedstockofmodernityaswellasglobalsupply chains,somethathavebecomeincreasinglymoredangerousamidshifting geopoliticalbordersandtenuousinternationalalliances.Armedwiththeknowledgeofanexistinginfrastructure,wecan fixourpastmistakesandstepboldly intoacleanerfuturetogeneratethepowerwewantandneed,ensuringasafer andmoresecureworld.Insomecases,old-worldinfrastructurecanberetooled toaccommodaterenewables,includingtransmissionlines,liquid-fueltransportation,andlong-hauldelivery.
InPartII,Iexaminethetechnologiesofrenewableenergy(solar,wind, water)anddistributedpowersystemsthatareremakingourtwenty-firstcenturylives.Afteryearsofinaction,policymakersarebeginningtoseethe benefitsofmodernizingapetroleum-basedeconomy,nolongercitingadragon growthbutaneconomicopportunitytoimplementprovensolutionsonawider scaletocurbpollutionandgreenhousegasemissions.Nooneshoulddoubt, however,thepowerofthoseseekingtoslowthechangeorco-optnewwaysas theirown.LedbyBigOilandindeedBigGas,organizedclimatedenialismand climatedelayismcontinuetoreportfalsehoodsandmade-upcontroversiesasin
thepastwithpesticides,acidrain,andtobaccoaddiction,whilewarinUkraine hasespeciallyupendedtheproductionanddistributionofnewenergy.
Atthesametime,eachofuscanmakeadifferencewithsimple,smart decisionsaboutourownenergyneedsandconsumptivelifestyles(PartIII).
AswesawduringtheCOVID-19pandemic,whereenergyusedroppedsignificantlyacrosstheglobe,manyofuscanlivewithless,loweringconsumption andcarbonemissions.Conservationneednotbeadirtywordpracticedonlyby afew,butbyeveryoneseekingtoreduceconsumptionandsavemoney.
Wobblingthroughtheextraordinarychangesthatlieahead,wemustbecome betterinformedaboutthefundamentalsofpowergenerationaswetransition frombrowntogreen.Wecannolongerburnwhateverweplease,ignoringthe obviousconsequencesofouractions.Instead,wemustrebuild,rewire,and reworkourfailedpast,carefulnottoaddmorelayersofsophisticationor increaseanalreadywideningdigitaldivide.Decentralizedgreenenergy sourcesalsomeanlessconflictoversupplychainsthatcanproducedevastating conditionsinlow-incomeanddevelopingcountriesacrosstheglobeandeven ontheedgesofEurope.
Themechanicsofmotivepower,electricity,andnetworksareexaminedin thecontextofnewindustriescompetingforourdailyneedsandtheirvaluein amodernsustainableworld.Connectivityisespeciallyremakingthewaywe createandsharepower – soonwewillborrowacupofchargefromaneighbor aseasilyasacupofsugar.Themeanstoimplementaneconomicallyviableand sustainablefutureisdiscussed,buildingonaneeded “energyliteracy” inafastchangingworldaswelookunderthehoodofelectricvehicles,rechargeable batteries,anddistributedresources,definingtheoriginandmeaningofcommonunitsalongtheway(e.g.,watts,joules,kilowatt-hours)andthelatestnewenergyterminology.
Wemust findmoreefficientwaystogeneratepowerforelectricity,heat,and transportation,recognizingthatclean,sustainableenergyistheonlyway forwardforawarmingplanetwith finiteresources.Wehavenochoicebutto leavetheworldbetterthanhowwefoundit.Whatanopportunitytobepresent duringthechangefromoldtonew,frombrowntogreen,fromadirty,oldworld,fossil-fuel-burningpasttoamodern,renewables-powered,cleanreality. UnlikeinthedaysofCopernicus,ThomasJefferson,orJamesWatt,thistime manyofuscanbothseeandbeapartoftherevolution.
Acknowledgments
Writing TheTruthAboutEnergy hasbeenanextraordinaryexperience,thanks largelytothosewhohelpedexplainideasanddirectmetonewvistasalongthe way.Iwouldespeciallyliketothankmygodparents,TomandPatLawson,who wereGreenlongbeforewecapitalizedtheword;mymotherDaisy,whoalways supportedmeandsharedwithmeherunwaveringenthusiasmforlife;and BelénRoza,theloveofmylifeandconstantcompanion,withoutwhomthis bookwouldnotbepossible.
IhavebeenaskingwhythingsworkforaslongasIcanremember.Fortunately, manygenerouspeoplehavebeentherewithareadyanswer.Iwouldliketothank StefanBäumer,TomClynes,IanFairlie,AndrewFitzpatrick,BrianGallagher, CharlesGasparovic,JohnGerman,Robin Marjoribanks,LisaMacKenzie,Molly Mulloy,PazRoza,FernandoSantirso,JeffreySt.Clair,AvelinoValle,Fernando Vaquero,DavidWhite,DeirdreWhite,PeterWhitney,andV.Zajacfortheirkind sharing.IwouldalsoliketothankBrianGallagher,CharlesGasparovic,andBelén Roza,whoreadpartsorallofthemanuscriptandgavemeessentialfeedback. ThanksalsotoAvelinoValle,whocreatedanumberoforiginalillustrations.He hasexcellentlyilluminatedinpictureswhatIcouldnotinwords.
ThanksalsotoeveryoneatCambridgeUniversityPressforturningthedraft intoa finishedbook.Inparticular,IwouldliketothankMattLloydwhostarted theballrollingandforhisoverallsupervision,MayaZakrzewska-Pim,whose constanthelpandguidancewasinvaluablethroughout,SapphireDuveauand JennyvanderMeijdenfortheirexcellentcontentmanagement,Daniel Jebarajan,GeethanjaliRangaraj,andthedesignteamatIntegrafortheir dedicatedorganization,andSaraBruntonwhoeditedthebooktothehighest standardandattentiontodetail.Iamindebtedtoeachofthemfortheir professionalism,hardwork,andkindnessthroughout.
CharlesGasparovicwasespeciallyhelpful,talkingmethroughnewideas, sendingmesourcematerial,andencouragingmefromthestart.Hewasthe first
toreadtheentiremanuscriptfrombeginningtoend,andseethestrengths amongtheweaknesses.Hesuggestedmanyinvaluableadditions,unique thoughts,andpertinentcalculations,withoutwhichthisbookwouldbeincomplete.Iamindebtedtohimforhiseverhelpfulguidance.
Mythankstothemanydedicatedwriterswhohaverecordedtheirobservationsforalltosee,especiallyfrom TheNewYorkTimes, TheGuardian,and CounterPunch,fromwhichIhaveprécisedafewalreadyperfectanalyses.Try asImight,Ican’tpossiblyreadanddigestall.Thanksalsoto National Geographic forbravelyshowingthetruthaboutourbeautifulandchanging world.Thankstoallthosewhokindlygavepermissiontousetheirimages:the CityofToronto,theM.KingHubbertCollection,Vaisala,NokiaBellLabs, NASA,SolarAquaGrid,UNDP,IBISPower,andArchivesESB(Ireland).
Ihavehadtoputanumberofdifferenthatsontounderstandthesubjectmore deeply.Asaphysicist,Iamusedtothinkingintermsofrelationships,essentiallyAleadstoB,thoughwatchoutforC.Forexample,sunlightconvertedto electricitycanbeexplainedinthelanguageofmaterialscienceandatomic physics,butneedsabitofatmosphericscienceandsphericalgeometrytoget thedetailsright.Iwassurprisedhowmuchofthefundamentalsinvolved biology,geology,andchemistry,areaswheremyfootingisnotassure.Ihave learnedeverythingfromphotosynthesisandsoilstratatothephysiologyofcow stomachsandthesmellofabiofuelplant.Iamneversurprisedathowmuch thereistolearnorhowthereisalwaysmoretograsp.Longmaythewonder last.
Ihaveusedpubliclyaccessibledatawhereverpossible,intowhichonecan delvefurtherformore.Alllinkstoexternalwebsiteswerecorrectatthetimeof publication.Youcancheckmanyofthesourcesinacompanionwebsitetothis bookentitled E21NS.Ialsoprovideadjuncteducationalmaterialonmy websiteat www.johnkwhite.ie.
Thereisnoendtoabookonenergy.Thechangesarebreathtakingfromall sectors.Hopefully,Ihavehelpedtoclarifythematerialandclearedawayto furtherone’sownjourney.Thankyoutoall.Onwardstoahappierandcleaner future.
AWordaboutNumbers
Normally,oneputsreferencenumbersinanappendix,stuffedawayattheback ofabook,whichareadermaynotevenrealizeisthereuntiltheend.ButIthink afewessentialnumbersupfrontmakeagoodoverviewtothematerial,evenif theyappearoutofcontextatthispoint.Itdoesn’tmatterifonedoesn’tfully understandtheirmeaningyetortheaccompanyingunits.Aquicklooknow mayhelpwiththeexplanationandcontextlater.
Notethatsomeofthenumbersareapproximate.Itiseasytogetbogged downinexactmeasuresandlosesightoftheorderofmagnitudeofaquantity. Butwitharoughideaatone’s fingertips,onecanmoreeasilycomparethe myriaddifferentamountsofthings.Relativenumbersandpercentagescanbe ofmuchmoreuse.
Forexample,globallyweemitabout50billiontonsofgreenhousegases (GHGs)peryear,anamountthatlikelydoesn’tmeanmuchtomostpeople. Brokenintopercentagesbycountryorindustry,however,thenumbersmay meanmore,whereChinaemitsroughly30%,theUnitedStates15%,andthe EuropeanUnion10%,whiletherestoftheworldcombinedemits45%. Furthermore,theamounthasbeengrowingbyabout500milliontons peryearoverthelastdecade(~1%/year),althoughnotatthesamerate everywhere.Themoreindustrializednationsareresponsibleformostofthe emissions,three-quartersofwhichiscarbondioxide,theGHGeveryoneis talkingabout.Historicallysince1750,Europehasemitted37%,theUnited States26%,Asia15%,China14%,andtherestoftheworld9%.
Aswe “decarbonize” energy,wemustalsocorrespondinglyincreasegrid powerforelectricvehicles,homeheating,andstoragebatteries.Togetanidea ofthescaleofthechallenge,theglobalelectricalpowergridhasagenerating capacityofabout8trillionwatts(8TW),15%intheUnitedStates.Ifweplanto replacepetroleumwithelectricitytorunourvehicles,theamountwillneedto
increasebyanywherefrom10%to50%.Addelectricalheatingandindustrial processesandtheglobalgridcouldmorethandouble.Timetogetstarted!
Chapter
1horsepower1horsepower(hp)=746watts(W)
1globaloiluse~100millionbarrelsperday(mbpd)
1globalnaturalgasuse~10billioncubicmetersperday (bcmpd)
2greenhousegasemissions~50billiontonsperyear(75%carbon dioxide)
3U-235half-life~700millionyears
3numberofnuclearweapons~12,000(~6,000USandRussiaeach)
4earth–sunaveragedistance150millionkm(1AU)
4visibleenergyband~380nm(blue)to~780nm(red)
4solarirradiance(ontheground)~1,000W/m2
4earthatmosphere~100km(theKármánline)
4atmosphericcarbondioxide400ppm(2014),419ppm(2023)
5windturbinecoverage1MW=~$1million,~1,000people
5global/USprimaryenergy~600EJ/100EJ(2022)
5global/USgridpowercapacity~8,000GW(8TW)/1,200GW(1.2TW)
6Li-ionbatteryrange~30kWh=1hour=100miles(160km)
6Li-ionbatteryenergydensity,cost~250Wh/kg,~$100/kWh
7homeelectricaluse(percouple)~30kWh/day(~$100/month@10 cents/kWh)
7homeelectricaluse(perperson)~15kWh/dayor5,000kWh/yearper person
Introduction
Thereismuchtodotocreateamodernenergyparadigm,onethatisclean, sustainable,andeconomicallyviable,butthechangesarecomingasoverall efficienciesimproveandmanufacturingcostsdecreasefortoday’srenewable technologies.In2000,0.6%oftotalglobalenergyproductionwasgenerated eitherbywindorsolar,a50%increaseinadecade;by2010,theamounthad doubled.1 By2013,Spainhadachievedaglobal firstaswind-generatedpower becameitsmainsourceofenergy(21%oftotaldemand,enoughtorun 7millionhomes2),whilebothPortugalandDenmarknowregularlyproduce dayspowered100%bywind.
HistoricallycloudyEnglandscoreda first,assolarbecamethelargestsource ofgridenergyduringanespeciallysunny2018springbank-holidayweekend,3 whileinthemidstofhighwindsfromStormBellaonBoxingDayin2020,the UKwasmorethanhalfpoweredbywind,anewrecord.OnApril30,2022, 100%ofCalifornia’selectricitywasgeneratedbyrenewablesforashortperiod ontheweekend,two-thirdsfromsolarpanels,anenviablemilestoneinthe world’s fifthlargesteconomy.4 EveninruralAfrica,simplesolarmobilephone rechargersnowservicehundredsofthousandsofhomes,5 whileindeveloping countriesruralsolarhook-upsprovidebasiclightingthatreducesharmful keroseneburningas “micro-grids” bypasstheneedforexpensivegridtie-ins.
Quotingthenineteenth-centuryphilosopherArthurSchopenhauer,the GermanparliamentarianHermannScheerstated, “Anewideawill firstly becomedenouncedasridiculous,secondlytherearemany fightsagainstit, and finallyallpeoplewereinfavorofitfromtheearlybeginning.”6 Scheerwas responsibleforthe2000GermanRenewableEnergyAct,whichspurredonan avant-gardeapproachtoenergytechnologyviaconsumersubsidiesandgrid buybacks,transformingGermanyintoaworldleaderinsolarpower,allin acountrywithameanlatitudeof51.5°andadailyaverageof4.1hoursof sunshine.Asnotedina2012 NewYorkTimes op-ed, “Morethanonemillion
Germanshaveinstalledsolarpanelsontheirroofs,enoughtoprovidecloseto 50percentofthenation’spower,eventhoughGermanyaveragesthesame amountofsunlightasAlaska.”7
OthercountriesarelookingtoGermany’sexampleasrenewableenergy technologiesbecomemoreviableyearonyear.Inparticular,Chinahasseen remarkabledouble-digitgrowthoverthepast20yearsandisracingaheadin photovoltaic(PV)technology,producingsolarpanelscheaperthananywhere elseandbringingthecostofsolarinfrastructureintotherealmofeveryday possibility.AChinese-madesolarcelltodayis200timescheaperthaninthe 1970s,spurringontheriseofgigawatt-sizedpowerplants.Asifannouncing theircomingdominanceinglobalizedmarkets,someChinesesolarpower plantsareevenbeingdesignedintheshapeofagiantpandabearthatemploy threedifferenttypesofmodules(mono-c,bifacialdual-glazed,andthin-film). ChinaalsoboastsmorewindfarmsthananyothercountryunderitsWindBase program,havingalreadyinstalledover200GWofpowerwithplanstoreach 400GWby2030and1000GW(1terawatt!)by2050,foratotalnational penetrationcoveringtwo-thirdsofitsexistinggridfromwindpoweralone.
Andyetinmuchofthedevelopedworld,greenmarketsarestilladvancing slowly,whilegovernmentscontinuetosupportpollution-spewingcoal,oil,and natural-gas(methane)industriesthathavealarmingconsequencesforour healthandwell-beinginanincreasinglywarmingplanet.Iftemperatures continuetoriseatcurrentrates,wemaynotbeabletostopthedamage.
Ratherthanencouragingcleanertechnologies,thepoliticsofthedayhinders progress,includingtheUnitedStatesSupremeCourtoverridingtheabilityof theEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)toregulateemissionsandthe EuropeanUnionlabelingnaturalgasandnuclearpowerasgreeninitstaxonomyofenvironmentallysustainableeconomicactivities.Tobesure, apowerful,anti-environmentallobbyiskeepingcarboninbusiness,preferring monopolistic,central-meteredpoweroverlocal,autonomous,gridindependence.Someevenclaimglobalwarmingisahoaxtodisadvantageleading industrializednations.
ResistanceisespeciallystrongintheUnitedStates,whereattheheightofthe 1970soilcrisisJimmyCarterhad32solar-thermalpanelsinstalledonthe WhiteHouseroofthatwerepromptlydismantledbyhissuccessorRonald Reagan,whoalarminglyclaimedthattreescausedmorepollutionthanautomobiles,whileworkingtomaintainagluttonous,unquestioningdependenceon oil.Inastrikinglysimilaranti-greenreboot,DonaldTrumpactivelypromoted “cleancoal,” endorsedlowervehicle-emissionsstandards,andpulledtheUS outofthe2015ParisAgreement,whichhadoutlinednew-energytransition initiativesandsoughttocoordinateworldwideclimateaction.Relishinghis
roleasagreenGrinch,heevenhadabike-sharinghuboutsidetheWhiteHouse removed.
Butdespiteanapparentinstitutionalresistancetochange,theUnitedStates haspioneeredmanyground-breakingrenewableenergysector(RES)projects, suchasthe firstmegawatt(MW)capacityphotovoltaicsolar-poweredplantin Hesperia,California,in1982,followedtwoyearslateratRanchoSeco,now runaspartoftheSacramentoMunicipalUtilityDistrictpowergridthat generates3.2MW,enoughtoelectrify2,200homes.8 Anotherpioneering technologyhasbeenoperatingsince1989atKramerJunctionintheMojave Desert – concentratedsolarpower,idealforalocationaveraging340daysof sunshineperyear.9 Modernsolarpowerplantsareslowlybeingaddedpiecemealacrossthecountry,scaledtosizeasneeded,whilewindpowerissurging inthevastoil-ladenregionsofWestTexas.
Whenitcomestomakingfundamentalchanges,however,theUnitedStates isnotoriouslyhandsoff,preferringcoal-,oil-,andnatural-gas-firedpower generationwithgenerousgovernmentsubsidies.Thereisnorationaleforthe resistanceotherthantomaintainthestatusquoinapresumedmarketeconomy, oddgiventhemanyparadigm-changingtechnologiesdevelopedthereinthe past,suchasinaviation,satellites,andcommunication,andawell-established entrepreneurialethos.AsNYUphysicistMartinHoffertnoted, “Mostofthe moderntechnologythathasbeendrivingtheUSeconomydidnotcome spontaneouslyfrommarketforces.TheInternetwassupportedfor20years bythemilitaryandfor10moreyearsbytheNationalScienceFoundation beforeWallStreetfoundit.”10 Tobesure,changecomesslowly,especially whenfacedwitharelentlessandwell-healedopposition.
Hopingtokick-startchangesinacountrythatemits15%ofemissionsfrom only4%oftheworld’spopulation,BarackObamaannouncedanewClean PowerPlanin2015,lettingstatesimplementtheirownmeanstoreducecarbon emissionsby20%by2020andproviding$1billioninguaranteedloansfor householdsolarinstallation.Inearly2016,ObamaandCanadianPrime MinisterJustinTrudeaualsoagreedtoreducemethanegasemissionsintheir countriesbyupto45%below2012levelsby2025,whilediscussingwaysto transitiontoalow-carboneconomy.Alas,manyofthechangeswereundoneby Obama’ssuccessor,whocharacterizedregulationsasarestrictivebureaucratic killjoy.In2022,JoeBiden’sBuildBackBetterclean-energyplanwasalso gutted,stuckindebatebetweenthosewhowanttoincentivizenewtechnologies(cleanenergy)andthosebeholdentothepast(subsidizedfossilfuels). Highlightingtheextentofthechallenge,annualgovernmentsubsidiesforfossil fuelsin2022doubledacrosstheglobefromthepreviousyeartoalmost $700billion.
Theroleofinternationalagreementsseemsevenmorefruitless.In December2015,delegatesfrom195countriesgatheredinParistohammer outadealtoreducegreenhousegasemissionsandcurbincreasedglobal warming.Themeetinghelpedtoovercomepreviouslyintransigentpositions, suchasreportingonemissions,maintainingandupdatingnationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs)every5years,andsettinganambitiousgoalof reaching “net-zero” emissionsby2050,althoughthe finalagreementwasnot legallybinding.Therewerealsoproblemswiththereportlanguage,suchas “shall” versus “should,” whilevarioushigh-carbonsubgroupscutadvantageoussidedeals.Aswiththeearlierunratified1997KyotoProtocol,theUS pulledoutbeforerejoiningatthestartoftheBidenadministration.
Agreementisanexasperatinglyslowprocessaspoliticians firstthinkabout theirownregions,unwillingtoprodthewell-established,fossil-fuelindustries thatpropelmuchoftheirgrossdomesticproducts(GDPs).Scheerevenwonderedifinternationalconferenceshavedonemoreharmthangood,notingthat “Whilethedelegateshavebeendebatingoverthepastdecade,emissionshave beenrisingbyanunprecedented30percent.” Sadly,hesurmisedthat “The effectoftheclimatechangenegotiationshasthusbeentopreservethestatus quo.”11 Onememedoingtheroundsatthe2021COP26meetinginGlasgow summedupthegrowingfrustration: “Numberofyearsleadershavebeen comingtoCOP – 26,numberofyearsGHGemissionshavedropped – 0.” Or astheteenageSwedishclimatecrusaderandyouthactivistGretaThunbergput it, “threedecadesof ‘blahblahblah’ . ”12 Greenmeetingsmaycomewithgrand themes,butchangeisnevereasy.Unfortunately,asweargueaboutourdifferencesandtheconsequencesofourinaction,thestakeskeepgettinghigher.
Itishardtoimaginelifewithoutenergy.Weburnfueltoheatandelectrifyour homes,lightourstreets,andrunourcars.Modernindustrydemandscheap electricitytomanufacturethebasicsofeverydaylife,whileoilisrefinedto makenumeroushouseholdproductsfromplasticstolubricantsandtirestoink, aswellaskeepingusmovingfromAtoB.Thereisnoturningbackthemodern, energy-basedlifestyleweallenjoy.Alas,aneconomythatproducesenergyby burningcarbon-containingfuelisresponsibleformillionsofdeathsperyear, creatingunwantedby-productsintheprocess,primarilycarbondioxideand methane,butalsonitrousoxide,benzene,andothercarcinogenicaromatic hydrofluorocarbons.
Thecarboneconomyisalsolimited.Depositedintheearth300millionyears agoduringtheCarboniferousPeriod,whenhighpressuresconverteddecaying plantsandanimalsintoso-called “fossilfuels,” thesupplywilleventuallyrunout.
In1956,theAmericangeologistM.KingHubbertcalculatedhowmuchwasleftin theground,notingthatoiloutputhaddoubledintheUnitedStatesevery8.7years from1880to1930.13 InhisseminalreporttotheAmericanPetroleumInstitute HubbertpredictedthattheUSwouldreachamaximumproductionofconventionaloil(a.k.a. “peakoil”)inthe1970s,whichitdid,furtherpredictingaworld peakoilfor2000,adatestillmuchdebatedandscrutinized.
Today,someanalystsbelievetheremaybeonlyafewdecadesleftgivenour currentannualconsumptionof35billionbarrelsperyear,andevenlessif demandfromChina,India,andotherdevelopingcountriescontinuesto increase.Newermethodstosecureoilandgasarepostponingtheend,such asoffshoredrilling,fracking,andoilsands,butatsomepointinthiscentury fossilfuelswilldiminishbeyondeasyextractionandeventuallyrunout. Regardlesstheexactendday,thereisnosuchthingasafossil-fuelfree lunch – whenitcomestoconsumption,onealwayshastopaythebill.
Despitethedecliningsupplies,worseningpollution,andincreasedgreenhouse gasemissions,globalenergyconsumptioncontinues,however,tobepowered primarilybyfossilfuels – oil(30%),coal(27%),andnaturalgas(23%) – with biomass(10%),nuclear(4.9%),hydroelectric(2.6%),andrenewables(2.5%) accountingfortherest.Tobesure,theold-worldinfrastructureismassivewith morethan60,000powerplants,14 generatingroughlyfour-fifthsofallpower, includingalmost20,000oilplantsgeneratingatleast1MWintheUnitedStates alone.Globally,thereareabout7,500coalplants,morethanathirdinChina,and 440nuclearplants.Currently,windandsolarprovideabout2.5%ofthetotal primaryenergysupply(10%ofelectricalpower),whilerenewabletechnologies (wind,water,sun – WWS)arebeginningtoaccountformoreoftheenergymix andinsomeplacesarealreadyatparityorcheaperthantraditionalpower production(Figure1 and Table1).Noonecanargueanymoreaboutthecost.
Figure0.1Globalenergysupplybyfuelsource:(a)1971percentageand (b)2020percentage.(Source:InternationalEnergyAgency).
Table0.1 Globalenergysupplybyfuelsource:1971and2020(exajoules, percentage)
Sources: “Totalprimaryenergysupplybyfuel,1971and2019,” International EnergyAgency,August6,2021. www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/total-pri mary-energy-supply-by-fuel-1971-and–2019 (1971)and “Totalenergysupply (TES)bysource,” World1990–2020,InternationalEnergyAgency,October26, 2022. www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser (2020).
Thefourgreatcapital-accumulatingworldpowersofhistorywerethe Genoese-backedSpanish,theDutch – bothnationspoweredbywindandthe limitsofintermittentfavor – acoal-fueledindustrializedBritain – vastlymore advancedandwealthierthananybefore,yetasdirtyasitwasrich – andtheoilpoweredUnitedStates,whosebrokeredpetroleumpoliticsandnever-ending thirstformorehascreatedunparalleledconvenience,yetputourplaneton aperilouspathofuncertainchange.Intherelentlessquestformore,modern capitalslowsfornoone,evenasitsseedsitsowndestruction.
Indeed,amodernrenewable-energyparadigmwillfundamentallychange howwealllive,creatingabundance,independence,andsecurity.Asnotedby Scheer, “Makingthegroundbreakingtransitiontoaneconomybasedonsolar energyandsolarresourceswilldomoretosafeguardourcommonfuturethan anyothereconomicdevelopmentsincetheIndustrialRevolution.”15
Ithasbeenalmost60yearssincethepublicationof SilentSpring,Rachel Carson’sgroundbreakingaccountoftheeffectsofchemicalpesticidesonthe environment,whichhelpedforgenewattitudesaboutourrelationshipwiththe Earth,ultimatelyleadingtothecreationoftheEnvironmentalProtection Agency(EPA)intheUnitedStatesduringthepresidencyofRichardNixon andabetterunderstandingofindustrialneglectandwaste.Hereisthestartof her finalchapter,entitled “TheOtherRoad.” Thecaseforchangecan’tbemade anybetter.
Westandnowwheretworoadsdiverge.ButunliketheroadsinRobertFrost’s familiarpoem,theyarenotequallyfair.Theroadwehavelongbeentravelingis deceptivelyeasy,asmoothsuperhighwayonwhichweprogresswithgreatspeed,but atitsendliesdisaster.Theotherforkoftheroad – theone “lesstraveledby”– offers ourlast,ouronlychancetoreachadestinationthatassuresthepreservationofour earth.16
Despitethedifficultchoicesahead,thereiscauseforoptimism.Asifawakened tothechallengesofremakingafailingindustrialpastwitharevitalizedgreen future,newlyelectedUSpresidentJoeBidenannouncedahostofmeasuresto combatthegrowing “existentialdangers” ofclimatechange.Inthepreambleto hisJanuary21,2021, “ExecutiveOrderonTacklingtheClimateCrisisatHome andAbroad,”17 heannouncedplanstodoubleoffshorewindby2030,build 500,000roadsideelectric-vehiclechargingstations,andupdatetheentire 650,000-plus fleetoffederalvehiclesfromgasolinetoelectric,initiatingan Americanelectric-vehicle “armsrace” thatsoonsaw$85billioninpromised spendingbyGMandFord.Themeasuresalsoincludedapauseonnewoil-andgasleasesonfederallandsandwatersandsignaledhisintentiontoask Congresstorepeal$40billioninannualoil-industrysubsidies,whileencouragingprivate-sectorinvestmentinmodernrenewables,increasedinternational financing,andmoredirectedresearchanddevelopment.
Ambitiousinscope,yetfullofpracticalplans,Biden,JohnKerry(special presidentialenvoyforclimate),andGinaMcCarthy(the first-everUSnational climateadviserandaformerEPAhead)outlinedawayto fightclimatechange athomeandacrosstheglobe.RejoiningtheParisAgreement,theUnitedStates alsore-engagedwithotherstoimplementplanet-wideactionsonglobalgreenhousegasemissions,especiallywithChinaandEurope.Thenewpresidentalso stressedjobcreationintheburgeoninggreensector,cappingamillionabandonedoilandgaswells,revitalizingdyingfossil-fuelcommunities(particularlycoal),andbuilding1.5millionnewenergy-efficienthomes.Althoughlate tothegame,theUSsoughttoleadwithitsenormouseconomicmight,hoping torecapturethespiritofpastideals.
OntheheelsofBiden’sclean-energyinitiatives,theInternationalEnergy Agency(IEA)announceditsowngroundbreakingrecommendationstotransitiontorenewable-energysourcesina2021reportentitled “NetZeroby2050: ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector. ” Recognizingthattheemissionreductiongoalspledgedbynationalgovernmentswereinsufficienttokeep globalwarmingbelowatargeted1.5°Cinthe2015ParisAgreement,theIEA reportlisted400stepstoachievenetzeroemissions,inparticularanimmediate endtoinvestinginnewfossil-fuelsupplyprojectsor “unabated” coalplants,no
