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THERESHAPINGOFWESTEUROPEAN PARTYPOLITICS COMPARATIVEPOLITICS ComparativePoliticsisaseriesforresearchers,teachers,andstudentsof politicalsciencethatdealswithcontemporarygovernmentandpolitics.Globalinscope, booksintheseriesarecharacterizedbyastressoncomparativeanalysisandstrong methodologicalrigour.TheseriesispublishedinassociationwiththeEuropean ConsortiumforPoliticalResearch.Formoreinformationvisit <http://www.ecprnet.eu>
TheseriesiseditedbyEmilievanHaute,ProfessorofPoliticalScience, UniversitélibredeBruxelles;FerdinandMüller-Rommel,Directorofthe CenterfortheStudyofDemocracy,LeuphanaUniversity;andSusanScarrow, John&RebeccaMooresProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofHouston.
OTHERTITLESINTHISSERIES PartyReform
TheCauses,Challenges,andConsequencesofOrganizationalChange AnikaGauja
HowEuropeansViewandEvaluateDemocracy
EditedbyMónicaFerrínandHanspeterKriesi
FacesontheBallot
ThePersonalizationofElectoralSystemsinEurope AlanRenwickandJean-BenoitPilet
ThePoliticsofPartyLeadership ACross-NationalPerspective
EditedbyWilliamCrossandJean-BenoitPilet
BeyondPartyMembers
ChangingApproachestoPartisanMobilization
SusanE.Scarrow
InstitutionalDesignandPartyGovernmentinPost-CommunistEurope CsabaNikolenyi
RepresentingthePeople
ASurveyamongMembersofStatewideandSub-stateParliaments
EditedbyKrisDeschouwerandSamDepauw
NewPartiesinOldPartySystems PersistenceandDeclineinSeventeenDemocracies NicoleBolleyer
TheLimitsofElectoralReform
EditedbyShaunBowlerandToddDonovan
TheChallengesofIntra-PartyDemocracy
EditedbyWilliamP.CrossandRichardS.Katz
TheReshapingofWest EuropeanPartyPolitics Agenda-SettingandPartyCompetition inComparativePerspective CHRISTOFFERGREEN-PEDERSEN GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom
OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries
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Preface Thisbookistheresultof20years’ interestintwotopics,namelyparty competitionandagenda-setting.Bringingmyresearchonthesetwotopics togetherinabookhasbeenmyambitionformanyyears.Beyondthe satisfactionof finallyachievingthisambition,thepublicationofthisbookis alsoafantasticopportunitytothankthemanypeoplewhohavehelpedmein doingso.
MyinterestinpartycompetitionhasbeenwithmesincemyPhDdissertation.Myinterestinagenda-settingisactuallyjustasold.In1998,Itooka graduatecourseinagenda-settingattheUniversityofBergenwiththelate RichardMatlandandFrankBaumgartner.Atthattime,agenda-settingwas notonmyagenda,butthecourseopenedmyeyestotheagenda-setting literature,andIwassurethatagenda-settingwasonmyfutureresearch agenda.ThecourseinBergenwasalsomy firstmeetingwithFrankandhis approachtoresearch.Myownworkonagenda-settingreallypickedupwhen JohnWilkersonfromtheUniversityofWashingtonwasavisitingscholarin Aarhusin2001andputmeintouchwithhiscolleagueBryanJones.Agrant fromtheDanishSocialScienceResearchCouncilthenallowedmetocollect the firstdataforwhatwastobecometheDanishpolicyagendasproject.The grantalsoallowedmetospendasemesterattheUniversityofWashingtonin thespringof2004.ThecloseinteractionwithJohnandBryanallowedmeto pushtheprojectbeyondthedatacollectionphase.Overtheyears,working withBryan,Frank,andJohnhasbeenasourceofenormousinspiration. Seeingwhatsocialsciencelookslikeatitsbesttaughtmewhattostrivefor. Thankstothethreeofyouforallthesupportovertheyears.
MyinteractionwiththescholarsbehindtheAmericanPolicyAgendas ProjectwaspartofwhatlaterdevelopedintotheComparativeAgendas ProjectknownasCAP.CAPisnotreallyaproject,butanetworkofscholars withaninterestinagenda-setting.Throughanannualconferenceandmany otheractivities,theCAPcommunityhasbecomeanopenacademicfamily whoseinfluenceonthisbookishardtooverestimate.Thankstoallthepeople whohavecontributedtotheCAPcommunityovertheyears.
Mymorefocusedworkonthisbookbeganin2012.Ihadjustobtainedthe DanishhigherdoctoraldegreepartlybasedonabookfocusedonDenmark, andIwantedtoexpandtheideaintoacomparativebook.Grantsfromthe DanishSocialScienceResearchCouncilandtheAarhusUniversityResearch FoundationallowedmetosetupthePOLISresearchgroup.Thegrantsalso madeitpossibleformetohavetworesearchstaysatUNCChapelHillwith
myfamilyin2012and2014.Thesetwostayswereunforgettableforusand gavemethetimeandenvironmenttolaythefoundationforthisbook.Thanks againtoFrankBaumgartnerforallhishelpinmakingthesetwostaysboth possibleandsorewarding.ThanksalsototheUNCPoliticalScienceDepartmentandtheCentreforEuropeanStudiesanditsdirectorJohnD.Stephens forhostingme.
From2012to2016,thePOLISresearchgroupwasa flourishingcontextfor discussingtheideasthatIwastryingtodevelopforthebook.Thankstothe membersofthegroup:FloriSo,ThomasLeeper,HenrikSeeberg,Gunnar Thesen,PeterB.Mortensen,RuneSlothuus,andRuneStubagerfortheir contributiontothemanymeetingsanddiscussionsofthegroup.
Myalmamater,theDepartmentofPoliticalScienceatAarhusUniversity hasalwaysbeenafantasticplacetowork.WhenPOLISended,Ihadan almostendlessnumberoffantasticcolleaguesIcouldapproachforcomments ondraftsofchapters.ThankstoKeesvanKersbergen,CarstenJensen,Rune Slothuus,HenrikSeeberg,andPeterB.Mortensenforreadingtheirway throughoftenseveralversionsofthesamechapter.AlsothankstoKim SønderskovforshowingallthesmartthingsSTATAcando,whichsaved mehoursofwork.
AnumberofpeopleoutsidetheUniversityofAarhushavealsoinfluenced thisbookandindifferentwayshelpedmecompleteit.WhileatChapelHill, HerbertKitscheltfromtheneighbouringDukeUniversitynotonlyinvitedme fornichelunches,butalsocommentedintensivelyonmyideas.Iamnotsure thisbookwillconvincehimthatpartypoliticsshouldbestudiedinthisway, buthiscriticismforcedmetothinkmuchmoreclearlyaboutmyarguments. Overtheyears,Ihavealsohadthegreatpleasureofdiscussingmyworkwith HanspeterKriesi.Insomeways,thisbookisacriticismofhiswork,but discussingwithhimisalwaysbothapleasureandhighlyrewarding.Also thankstoTarikAbou-Chadi,whohadasmallroleinthePOLISproject,for readinglargepartsofthemanuscriptandprovidingexcellentfeedback.The tworeviewersatOUPalsodeservemythanksforcarefulandcritical,butalso constructiveengagementwiththemanuscript.
WhenIbeganthisbookproject,CAPcodingofpartymanifestoswasnot availableforallthecountriesIwasinterestedin,soIneededthehelpfrom otherpeopletocodethemanifestos.ThankstoNinaLiljeqvistforcooperationoncodingtheSwedishmanifestos.ThankstoIsabelleGuinaudeaufor settingupthecodingoftheGermanmanifestosandalsoforprovidingme withtheupdatedversionoftheFrenchdata.Furthermore,thankstoSimon OtjesfororganizingthecodingoftheDutchmanifestos.Wealsoco-authored anarticle(Green-PedersenandOtjes2017)onwhichChapter8ispartlybased. Finally,thankstoJeroenJolyforansweringallmyquestionsontheBelgium dataandtoCatherineFroiforprovingtheUKdata.ThomasPogunkteand ThomasSaalfeldwereveryhelpfulinmystrugglewithenvironmentalpolitics
inGermany,andAndrewJordanandRomanSenningerhelpedmewiththe EUdata,which,intheend,however,didnot findtheirwayintothebook.
Overtheyears,Ihavebeenfortunatetohavetheopportunityofpresenting partsofthisbooktoanumberofinstitutions.ThisincludestheUniversity ofStrathclyde,theUniversityofGothenburg,theUniversityofSouthern Denmark,theBerlinGraduateSchoolofSocialScience,theUniversityof SouthCarolina,andtheUniversityofBamberg.Thankstotheparticipants onalltheseoccasionsfortheirmanyvaluableinputs.
AnadditionalfactorthatmakestheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceat AarhusUniversitysuchagreatplacetoworkisthefriendlyandefficient administrativestaff.ThankstoHelleBundgaard,AnnetteAndersen,and HelleHornemannMøllerfortheircarefulworkwithreferencesandlanguage editing.
Last,butnotleast,thankstothoseathome,mywifeLoneandmykids Jacob,Kasper,andLeawhohaveputupwithallmyfrustrationsduringthe projectandacceptedtheSaturdayswhenIwasburiedinthemanuscript. Icouldnotimagineabetterbaseathome.
Idedicatethisbooktomythreechildren.Whenthisbegan,theywerestill kids.Nowtheyhavegrownintosomethingelse,butformetheywillalwaysbe mysmallkids.Pleaserememberthatheightisasocialconstruction.
4.DataSourcesfortheStudyofthePartySystemAgenda
5.TheDevelopmentofthePartySystemAgendainWestern
ListofFigures 5.1Averagelengthofpartymanifestosinquasi-sentencesinseven countriesfrom1950andonwards 53
5.2Averagelengthofpartymanifestosinquasi-sentencesin five countriesfrom1950andonwards 54
5.3Attentiontoleft–rightrelatedissuesinsevencountriesfrom 1950andonwards 55
5.4Attentiontoleft–rightrelatedissuesin fivecountriesfrom 1950andonwards 55
5.5NumberofsubtopicsusedinDenmarkandGermanyfrom 1953andonwards 56
5.6Attentiontoeconomicissues(macroeconomics,business,and labour)insevencountriesfrom1980andonwards 58
5.7Attentiontoforeignpolicyanddefenceinsevencountriesfrom 1980andonwards 59
5.8Attentionto ‘newpoliticsissues’ (immigration,European integration,environment,crimeandjustice,andpersonalrights) insevencountriesfrom1980andonwards 60
5.9Attentiontotheenvironmentinsevencountriesfrom1980 andonwards 61
5.10AttentiontoEuropeanintegrationinsevencountriesfrom 1980andonwards 61
5.11Attentiontoimmigrationinsevencountriesfrom1980 andonwards 62
5.12Attentiontocrimeandjusticeinsevencountriesfrom 1980andonwards 63
5.13Attentiontopersonalrightsinsevencountriesfrom 1980andonwards 63
5.14Attentiontohealthcareinsevencountriesfrom1980 andonwards 65
5.15Attentiontoeducationinsevencountriesfrom1980 andonwards 65
5.16Attentiontosocialpolicyinsevencountriesfrom1980 andonwards 68
6.6Two-dimensionalMDScon
8.1PartysystemattentiontoEuropeanintegrationinseven countriesfrom1980andonwards
9.1Partysystemattentiontotheenvironmentinsevencountries from1980andonwards
9.2Thedevelopmentofthegeneralenvironmentalindex (Jahn2016)
10.1Partysystemattentiontoeducationinsevencountriesfrom 1980andonwards
10.2Partysystemattentiontoeducationdividedintosubcategories
10.3Partysystemsattentiontoeducationdividedintosubcategories inSweden,1982–2014
10.4Partysystemattentiontoeducationdividedintosubcategories intheUK,1983–2015
10.5Partysystemattentiontoeducationdividedintosubcategories inGermany,1981–2013
11.1Partysystemattentiontohealthcareinthesevencountries from1980andonwards
11.2Partysystemattentiontohealthcaredividedintosubtopicsin theUK,1983–2015
11.3Partysystemattentiontohealthcaredividedintosubtopicsin Germany,1980–2013
5.1Percentageofelectionsinwhichtheissuehasbeenintopthree from1980andonwards
6.1KruskalStressMeasurefordifferentnumbersofdimensions inthecorrelationofattentionacrossthe23issuesintheseven countriesfrom1980andonwards
7.1Percentageofpartiesmentioningimmigrationintheir
1 WhatHasHappenedtoPartyPoliticsin WesternEurope? NewParties,NewIssues,andNewConflicts ItiswidelyrecognizedthatpartypoliticsinWesternEuropehaschanged profoundlyoverthelastdecades.Longgonearethetimeswhenclass-based politicalpartieswithextensivemembershipdominatedpolitics.Instead,party politicshasbecomeissue-based.Politicalpartiescompetebypresentingtheir viewsontheissuespresentlydominatingthepoliticalagenda.Thisimplies increasedimportanceastohowpoliticalpartiespresenttheirviewsinthe media,amorevolatileelectorate,andmanynewpoliticalparties,often formedaroundparticularissues.
Theempiricalexamplesofthisdevelopmentareplentiful.Theclearest examplesareprobablytheelectoralsuccessinthe2010sofpartieslikethe AFDinGermany,theSwedenDemocrats,andthePVVintheNetherlands. Theconsequencesoftheelectoralgrowthofthesepartiesaremassive.The formingofcoalitiongovernmentshasbecomehighlychallenginginseveral WestEuropeancountries.TheEuroscepticismofthesepartieshasalsoledto aconcernforthestabilityoftheEuropeanUnion.
WhilethereisbroadagreementthatatransformationofWestEuropean partypoliticshastakenplace,thereismoredivergenceintermsofhowto analyseandunderstandthisdevelopment.Somestudiesfocusonthenew politicalparties,especiallythenichepartiesthathaveemergedaroundparticularissues(Adamsetal.2006;Meguid2008).RahatandKenig(2018) studyhowthisdevelopmethasledtopersonalizationofpolitics.Otherstudies focusonhowtheinternalstructureofpoliticalpartieshaschanged,andhow thishasaffectedthelinkagewiththeelectorate(KatzandMair2018;Mair 2013).Finally,arichliteraturehasinvestigatedhowthetransformationof partypoliticsisrelatedtochangesinthesocialcon flictsofWestEuropean countries(HoogheandMarks2018;Kriesietal.2008,2012).
SurprisinglyfewstudieshavefocusedonhowtheissuecontentofWest Europeanpartypoliticshasdevelopedoverthepastdecades.Thereisan extensiveliteraturearoundspecificissueslikeimmigration,Europeanintegration,theenvironment,oreducation.However,veryfewstudiesfocusonthe
issuecontentofpartypoliticsingeneral.Basicquestionslikewhichissueshave attractedpartyattention,whichhavenot,andhowthisvariesovertimeand acrosscountrieshaveonlypartiallybeenanswered.Thisbookthereforeoffers acomprehensiveanalysisoftheissuecontentofWestEuropeanpartypolitics. Todoso,thebookdevelopsanewtheoreticalmodellabelledthe ‘issue incentivemodel’ ofpartysystemattention.Theaimofthemodelistoexplain howmuchattentionissuesgetthroughoutthepartysystem,whichislabelled ‘thepartysystemagenda’.Toexplainthedevelopmentofthepartysystem agenda,oneneedstofocusontheincentivesthatindividualpolicyissuesoffer tolarge,mainstreamparties,i.e.thetypicalSocialDemocratic,Christian Democratic,orConservative/LiberalpartiesthathavedominatedWest Europeangovernmentsfordecades.Thecoreideaofthemodelisthatthe incentivesthatindividualpolic yissuesofferthesevote-andof fi ce-seeking partiesdependonthreefactors,namelyissuecharacteristics,issueownership, andcoalitionconsiderations:
· Issuecharacteristicsrefertostablecharacteristicsoftherelevantpolicy problems,e.g.solubilityandscope,andtoprobleminformationlikethe developmentofenvironmentalproblems.
· Issueownershipreferstowhethertheelectorateonastablebasisseesoneof thelarge,mainstreampartiesasmostcompetentindealingwiththeissue.
· Coalitionconsiderationsdependonwhetherpartypositionsontheissue differfromthegeneralleft–rightstructurethatdeterminescoalitionbuilding.Large,mainstreampartiescanuseafocusonaparticularissuetobuild acoalitionwithanichepartyorpursuewedgeissuecompetitionagainsta competingcoalition.
Theissueincentivemodelexplainsmanyoftheempiricaldevelopments identifiedinthebook.ThelimitedpartyattentiontoEuropeanintegration, evenintimeswhenitisexpanding,istheresultofthe(lackof)incentivesthatthe issueofferstolarge,mainstreamparties.Thereisnoconstantstreamof ‘problem information’.Whenapartyisingovernment,itisalsodifficulttodeliveron promisesofthedirectioninwhichtheEuropeanUnionshoulddevelop.
Anotherexampleistherisingpartysystemattentiontoeducationinmost countries.Thiscanbeexplainedbytheincreasingimportanceofeducationfor thelabourmarket,whichleadstoadebateaboutthe ‘knowledgesociety’ . Large,mainstreampartiesrespondtosuchadebate.Onemanifestationofthis istheintensedebateinmanycountriesaboutthequalityofprimaryschools, insomecasescausedbyPISAscores.1 Thishasledtoincreasingpartysystem attentiontoeducationingeneralandprimaryschoolsinparticular.
1 PISAistheProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessmentrunbytheOECD.Itprovides internationallycomparablescoresfortheschoolabilities(reading,maths,etc.)of15-year-old students.
Empirically,thebookalsooffersabroaderdescriptionofthedevelopment oftheissuecontentofWestEuropeanpartypolitics.Therisingimportanceof healthcareandeducationisoftenoverlooked.Furthermore,theincreased importanceofnewissueslikeimmigration,Europeanintegration,andthe environmentcaneasilybeoverstated.Thebookalsoshowsthatthetrajectoriesofthesenewissuesdifferconsiderablyintermsofpartyattention. Europeanintegrationremainsanissuewithlimitedpartyattention,and immigrationhasonlybecomeatopissueofpartycompetitioninsome cases.Ingeneral,issuesrelatedtothewelfarestatealsoremaincentralto partypolitics.Theissuesthathavedeclined,butfarfromdisappearedinterms ofpartyattention,aremacroeconomicsandthelabourmarket.
Thetrendsinattentiontoparticularissuesonthepartysystemagendaare hugelyimportanttoexplainforanyoneinterestedinunderstandingthefunctioningofcontemporaryWesterndemocracies.Oncepoliticalpartiesfocuson someissuesratherthanothers,itislikelytoaffecttheirelectoralsupport.This isthecoreoftheideaof ‘issuevoting’ (BélangerandMeguid2008).However, theissuecontentofpartypoliticsisnotonlyimportanttostudyifonewantsto understandtheoutcomeofdemocraticelections.Whichissuespartiescompeteonhasalsosigni ficantconsequencesforthepoliciestheyimplement. Politicalpartiesfocusonissuesbypromisingtheelectoratecertainpolicies.In theautumnof2015,Syrianrefugeesdesperatelytriedtoavoidhavingtoseek asyluminDenmarkandtriedtomakeittoSwedeninstead.Thiswasa consequenceofthesubstantialdifferenceinasylumrulesinthetwocountries. TheverystrictDanishasylumruleswereintroducedinthe2000sfollowing intensepartyattentiontotheissue.InSweden,immigrationhasplayeda muchmorelimitedroleointhepartysystemagenda,andasylumrulesare muchlessstrict.Anotherexampleishowthegeneralincreaseinpartyattentiontohealthcarehasbeenaccompaniedbysubstantialincreasesinspending onhealthcare.
THECONTRIBUTIONOFTHEISSUEINCENTIVEMODEL Theissueincentivemodelthatwillbedevelopedandtestedinthisbookisan attempttoincreaseourtheoreticalunderstandingofwhatshapestheissue contentofWestEuropeanpartypolitics.Theoretically,twogeneralperspectivesontheissuecontentofpartypoliticsexist;abottom-upandatop-down perspective(deVriesandMarks2012).
Fromabottom-upperspective,theissuecontentofpartypoliticsmustbe explainedbytheconflictsfoundwithintheelectorateandthechangestothis con flictstructure.Aclearexampleofthebottom-upapproachistheworkby
Kriesietal.(2008,2012),whichisthemostcomprehensiveattemptat analysingtheissuecontentofWestEuropeanpartypoliticstodate.Thedriving questionforKriesietal.hasbeenwhetheraconflictlinehasemergedaround globalizationinvolvingparticularlyimmigrationandEuropeanintegration. Withregardtothisworkandotherstudiesbasedonabottom-upapproach, theissueincentivemodeloffersseveralcontributions.Oneisthefocusonthe incentivesoflarge,mainstreamparties.Thisisincontrasttothefocusof thebottom-upstudiesonnichepartieswhichmobilizebasedonanew,second conflict(Beramendietal.2015;HoogheandMarks2018;Kriesietal.2008, 2012).Thedynamicsofpartyattentiontoissuescannotbeexplainedbymainly focusingonnicheparties.Theyareimportant,butprimarilywhentheyaffectthe coalitionincentivesoflarge,mainstreamparties.
Anothercontributionoftheissueincentivemodelisthatithighlightsthe importanceofstudyingpartycompetitiondynamicsaroundindividualpolicy issuesratherthanclustersofissuesbelongingtotheseconddimension.Thisis nottoquestiontheexistenceofasecondpositionaldimensionwithinthe electorateand,also,atleastpartly,withinpartypolitics.Thepointisrather thattounderstandpartycompetitiondynamics,andwhypartiesfocuson certainissues,oneneedstofocusonindividualissues.Thisdoesnotimplythat partypositionsarenotstructuredbycon flictdimensions.Onthecontrary,one ofthefactorsshapingcoalitionconsiderationsisexactlyhowpartypositions onaspeci ficissue fitthemoregeneralleft–rightcon flict.However,ifone’ s researchfocusistounderstandwhichissuespoliticalpartiescompetefor,the findingsinthisbooksuggestthatpoolingdifferentpolicyissuesinbroad categories,thoughmostlyhelpfulinprovidinganoverview,isproblematic. Theproblemisthattheissuesthatarepooledinfactvaryconsiderablywhen analysedfromtheissueincentivemodel.
Theotherperspectiveontheissuecontentofpartypoliticsisthetop-down approach.Fromthisperspective,thecontentofpartypoliticsisdeterminedby thestrategicconsiderationsofpoliticalpartiesandtheircompetitionwith eachother.Thetop-downperspectiveisthefoundationoftheextensive literatureonissuecompetitionamongpoliticalpartiesthathasemergedin recentyears(e.g.Abou-Chadi2016;Dolezaletal.2013;HoboltanddeVries 2015;MeyerandWagner2015;Spoonetal.2014;vandeWardtetal.2014). However,thisliteraturetypicallyfocusesonspecificgroupsofpoliticalparties likeradicalright-wingpartiesonparticularissueslikeEuropeanintegration, theenvironment,orimmigration.
Theissueincentivemodelbuildsonthetop-downperspectiveandoffers severalimportantcontributionstothisliterature.Studieswithinthisliterature typicallyanalysesingleissuesandtheorizefromtheseissues.Theissueincentivemodeldevelopedinthisbookalsoexplainsindividualissues,butthe modelexplicitlyincludesissuecharacteristicsandshowstheirimportance. Theissueincentivemodelthusoffersanaccountofthegeneraldynamicsof
partyattention,andwhenandwhysomeissueswaxandwaneontheparty systemagenda.Afurthercontributionisthefocusonthecoalitionconsiderationsoflarge,mainstreamparties.Thisfactorisimportantforunderstanding partyattentiontodifferentissues,notleastcross-nationalvariationinit. However,ithasnotreceivedmuchattentionintheissuecompetitionliterature,perhapsbecausethetheoreticalfocusofthisliteratureismostlyonthe emergenceofnicheparties,whereasthisbookfocusesontheincentivesof large,mainstreamparties.Asforthelatter,coalitionbuildingiscrucialtowin governmentpower.Thus,thebookdoesnotarguethatthegrowthofniche partiesisunimportant.Onthecontrary,butratherthansimplyaffectingthe partysystembytheirpresenceascompetitorsforvotes,nichepartiesaffect thepartysystemanditsagendabyaffectingtheopportunitiesforcoalition building.Theissueincentivemodeldevelopedinthisbookisanattemptto developageneraltop-downapproachtotheissuecontentofpartypolitics. Theliteratureonissuecompetitionoffersaplenitudeofinsights,butnota comprehensivemodelfocusedontheentirepartysystemagenda.
Thefactthattheissueincentivemodelbuildsonatop-downapproachdoes notimplythatthebottom-upapproachismistakenorshouldberejected. Quitethecontrary.Theworkfromthebottom-upapproachsuchasKriesi etal.(2008,2012)pointstochangeswithintheWestEuropeanelectoratethat arecrucialfromalong-termperspective.Whattheissueincentivemodel arguesisthattheselong-termchangestellusmuchlessabouthowtheissue contentofWestEuropeanpartypoliticsdevelopsinthemediumterm.The strategicinteractionamongpoliticalparties,whichtheissueincentivemodel theorizes,hasgreaterconsequencesfortheissuecontentofpartypoliticsthan impliedinthebottom-upapproach.
Fromabroadertheoreticalperspective,theissueincentivemodelalsohas implicationsforhowoneunderstandstheroleofpoliticalpartiesasthekey linkagebetweencitizensandthepoliticalsystem(cf.Lawson1980).Howthe profoundchangestoWestEuropeanpartypoliticshaveaffectedthislinkage hasbeendebatedintensively(cf.Daltonetal.2011;KatzandMair2018; KitscheltandRehm2015).Thebottom-upandtop-downperspectivesoffer differentviewsonthislinkage.Fromtheviewpointofthebottom-upperspective,changestotheconflictstructureofsocietyarereflectedratherdirectlyin thepartysystemthroughtheemergenceofnewpoliticalparties(Hooghe andMarks2018;KitscheltandRehm2015;Kriesietal.2008,2012).Onthe otherhand,thecartelapproachtopoliticalpartiesdevelopedbyKatzand Mair(1995,2018)offersaclearexampleofatop-downperspectiveasto whichestablishedpartiesareabletocontroltheissueagendaandkeep newissuesaway.Themessageoftheissueincentivemodelisthatthedegree towhichthepartysystemincorporatesnewissuesdependsontheincentives thatlarge,mainstreampartiesfacewithregardtotheseissues,andthese incentivesvary.
Inmanyways,theissueincentivemodelisaneliteperspectiveonthe linkagebetweenvotersandparties,butonethatincludesmuchlesselite controlthanthecartelapproach.Thisispartlybecauseelites,i.e.political parties,competewitheachotherforvotes.Therefore,voters’ attitudesand changestothemsometimesshapepartybehaviour.Partlythisisbecausethe developmentofreal-worldproblems,orinformationonthem,playsacrucial role.Theyareonlycontrolledbypoliticalpartiestoalimitedextent.
Empirically,thebookdrawsonanewdatasetcontainingcodingofparty manifestosinsevenWestEuropeancountries(Germany,France,theUK,the Netherlands,Belgium,Sweden,andDenmark)fromtheearly1980stothe early2010s,coveringsixty-sixelections.Allpartymanifestoshavebeencoded accordingtothepolicyagenda-settingcodingsystemoriginallydevelopedby BaumgartnerandJones(Baumgartneretal.2019).UnliketheComparative Manifesto(CMP)dataset(Budgeetal.2001),whichisbasedonsimilar documents,thepolicyagenda-settingcodingschemecoverstheentirepolicy agendasbasedonmajortopics/issueslikehealthcare,theeconomy,and immigrationandsubtopicslikeinflation,unemployment,andthepublic budgetwithineconomics.Thecodingscheme,whichcontainsmorethan 200subtopics,makesitpossibletostudyissueattentioninamuchmore detailedwaythantheCMPdatasetdoes.Afurthercontributionofthis bookisthustoshowhowthedatasetswhicharedevelopedbasedonthe ComparativeAgendasProject(CAP)(cf.Baumgartneretal.2019;GreenPedersenandWalgrave2014)canbeusedtostudypartycompetition.Moreover,theconceptsandtheoreticalideasofpolicyagenda-settingtheorywillbe usedinanumberofwaystodevelopthetheoreticalargumentandstructure theempiricalanalysis.Thebooktherebydemonstratestheusefulnessofthese ideasforstudyingpartycompetition.
DEVELOPINGANDTESTINGTHEISSUEINCENTIVE MODEL:HOWTHEBOOKPROCEEDS Tobuildsupportfortheseempiricalandtheoreticalclaims,thebookproceeds inanumberofsteps.The firststepsaretheoretical,andtheyarepresentedin Chapters2and3.Chapter2outlinesthetwodominanttypesofliterature ontheissuecontentofWestEuropeanpartypoliticsindetail:theliteratureon thenew,seconddimensionofWestEuropeanpolitics,whichisbasedona bottom-upperspective,andthegrowingliteratureonissuecompetition, whichbuildsonatop-downperspective.Chapter3outlinestheissueincentive model,whichfurtherdevelopsthetop-downperspective.Theoretically,the issueincentivemodelcombinestwoliteratureswhich,thoughtheybothhave
attentiontoissuesattheircore,havelivedratherseparatelives,namelythe policyagenda-settingliterature(Green-PedersenandWalgrave2014)andthe literatureonissuecompetition,aslaidoutinChapter2.Onekeyconceptfrom thepolicyagenda-settingtheoryistheideaofa ‘partysystemagenda’ (GreenPedersenandMortensen2010)thatpoliticalpartiesin fluencebutarealso influencedby.Thus,theaimofexplainingtheissuecontentofpartypolitics canbedescribedmorepreciselyastheaimofexplainingthecontentofthe partysystemagenda.Anotherkeyconceptfromthepolicyagenda-setting literatureistheimportanceofissuecharacteristicsforpartysystemattention.
Next,Chapter4presentsanddiscussesthedatausedinthebook.Ittakes upquestionsabouttheuseofpartymanifestosasasourceformeasuringparty attention;itdiscussesthecodingsystemusedtocodethepartymanifestos,the choiceofcountries,and finallywhatthedatasethastoofferincomparison withtheCMPdataset,whichhasmainlybeenusedintheexistingliterature.2 Itthusexplainshowtheissuecontentofpartypoliticsisanalysedbystudying partyattentiontotwenty-threepolicyissuesliketheeconomy,healthcare, immigration,education,transportation,etc.
Chapter5and6arethe firstempiricalstepsinthebook.Chapter5presents anoverviewofthedevelopmentofthepartysystemagendasintheseven countriesusingmeasuresandconceptsfromthepolicyagenda-settingliterature.Itshowshowthelong-rundeclineofeconomicandclass-relatedissues hasopeneduppartycompetitioninWesternEuropewherenewissueshave gainedimportanceandmadetheissuecontentofpartycompetitionmore complex.Theliteraturetypicallyarguesthatthenewissuesare ‘newpolitics’ issues,butthischaptershowsthatthisisonlypartofthestory.Issueslike healthcareandeducationhavealsobecomecentraltopartypolitics,and socialpolicyissuesremaincentralaswell.
Chapter6exploresgeneraltrendsinthedynamicsofthepartysystem agenda.It firstreportsthe findingsfromamultidimensionalscaling(MDS) analysisofthepartysystemagendasinthesevencountries.Aseconddimensionwithadistinctandtheoreticallymeaningfulissuecontenthasbeenclearly documentedwhenfocusisonissuepositions(Kriesietal.2008,2012).When focusisonissueattention,twoormoredimensionsareclearlyfound,butthe issuesthatarearguedtoconstitutetheseconddimensiondonotconstitutea distinctgroupintermsofattentiondynamics.Therefore,thechapterargues theneedtofocusonindividualissuesanddiscusseshowtheycanbeanalysed basedontheissueincentivemodelpresentedinChapter3.Thisincludes reasonsforchoosingtoanalysethefollowing fi veissues:immigration, Europeanintegration,theenvironment,education,andhealthcare.
2 Anonlineappendixpresentsthedetailsofthecodingofthepartymanifestos.
Chapters7–11explain,basedontheissueincentivemodel,thewaxingand waningoftheseindividualissues.Immigration(Chapter7)ischaracterizedby arelativelylimitedincreaseinpartysystemattention.InDenmark,party systemattentionhasincreasedsubstantially,however,andtheexplanationis thecoalitionconsiderationsofthelarge,mainstreamrightpartyinDenmark, theLiberals,fromtheearly1990s.Chapter8explainslimitedpartysystem attentiontoEuropeanintegrationinallcountrieswithalackofincentivesfor large,mainstreampartiestofocusonit.Chapter9showsthatattentionto theenvironmentgenerallyroseuntiltheearly1990sandthendeclined,butthe issuehasremainedonthepartysystemagenda.Thistrendpartlyreflectsthe developmentofthestateoftheenvironment.Still,substantialcross-national variationinpartysystemattentiontotheenvironmentalsoexists.Thiscan largelybeexplainedbythecoalitionincentivesthattheissuehasopenedup forSocialDemocraticparties.EducationisanalysedinChapter10.Inmost countries,partysystemattentiontoeducationhasgrown,butnotinfederal systemslikeGermanyandBelgiumwherethenationalleveldoesnotcontrol educationalpolicy.Thisgrowthreflectstheemergenceofa ‘knowledgesociety’ whichhasincreasedtheimportanceoftheissueforlarge,mainstream parties.Chapter11looksatpartysystemattentiontohealthcare,whichhas increasedinallcountries.Allpartiesregardlessofcolourfocusonhealthcare. Thisreflectsthathealthcareisimportantforallcitizens,butalsothatitis increasinglydifficultforpoliticalpartiestodeliveralltreatmentsandtechnologiesthathavebecomeavailablebecauseofmedical-technological research.Furthermore,theorganizationofthehealth-caresystemseemsto beimportantforthegrowthinpartysystemattentiontohealthcare.The growthappearsmostpronouncedinnationalhealth-caresystems.Eachofthe issuechaptersalsodiscussestheoftenextensiveliteratureonpartypoliticsand partyattentionthatexistswithregardtoeachofthe fivepolicyissues.
Finally,Chapter12summarizesthe findingsofthebookempiricallyand theoretically.Empirically,ithighlightsthecontinuingimportanceofpolicy issuesrelatedtothewelfarestateandespeciallytheincreasingimportanceof healthcareandeducation.Italsohighlightsthevaryingattentionpatterns foundforissueslikeimmigrationandEuropeanintegrationthatarebothseen asbelongingtothenew,seconddimension.Theoretically,thechaptersummarizesthetestingoftheissueincentivemodelanddiscussesitfurther.This includeshighlightingtheimportanceoffocusingontheincentivesoflarge, mainstreampartiesratherthannicheparties,whichhasbeenthedominant approachintheissuecompetitionliteratureandtheliteratureonthesecond dimension.Thisfocusbringsfurtherattentiontotheimportanceoftwo factorsthatreceiveratherlimitedattentionintheseapproaches,namely issuecharacteristicsandcoalitionconsiderations.
The finalquestioniswhetherthefocusonlarge,mainstreampartiesis alreadyobsoletebecauseoftheirelectoraldeclineinrecentelectionsandthe
growingelectoralstrengthofnicheparties.TheanswerisNO,althoughit obviouslydependsonhowmuchelectoralstrengthlarge,mainstreamparties actuallylose.Thefoundationoftheirinfluenceonthepartysystemagendais notonlyrelatedtosize,butalsotogovernmentparticipationandtheir traditionforabroadissueappeal.Aslongasnichepartiesstayfocusedon their ‘niche’ issuesandarereluctanttoentergovernment,theirimpactonthe partysystemagendaismorelimited.Theelectoralgrowthofnicheparties mainlyaffectscoalitionbuilding.Large,mainstreampartiescan finditmore attractivetoapproachnichepartiesbyfocusingontheirissues.However,if thisstrategyisnotlikelytosecurepower,large,mainstreampartiesmight cooperatewitheachother.Theverylonggovernmentformationprocessin Germanyin2017and2018showsthatthiscanbeextremelychallenging.
Bottom-UporTop-Down? TheoreticalApproachestotheContentofWest EuropeanPartyPolitics Asonewouldexpect,thedeclineofmasspoliticalpartiesbasingtheirsupport onclassvoting,andthegrowingimportanceofissuepolitics,havegenerateda quiteextensiveliteratureanalysingdifferentaspectsofhowpartypoliticshas developed.Partofthisliteraturedealswithbroaderquestionsasforinstance thelinkagebetweenvotersandparties(Daltonetal.2011),thedevelopment oftheinternalorganizationofpoliticalparties(KatzandMair2018;Kitschelt 2000),andthefutureofpoliticalpartiesmoregenerally(Bardietal.2014; Mair2013;RahatandKenig2018).Someofthesebroaderquestionswillbe addressedintheconcludingChapter12.Focusinthefollowingchapteris ontheliteraturethatdealsdirectlywiththeissuecontentofWestEuropean partypolitics.
AsarguedbydeVriesandMarks(2012:187–8),therearebasicallytwo theoreticalapproachestothestruggleforthecontentofpartypolitics:the first onecanbedescribedasabottom-uporsociologicalapproachthatseesthe issuecontentofpartypoliticsasareflectionofsocialcon flicts.Thestarting pointforthisliteratureiswheredifferentsocialgroupsplacethemselves withintheseconflicts.Theissuecontentofpartypoliticsreflectsthemobilizationofthesegroupsaroundtheissuesconstitutingthesocialcon flicts. Changeinthecontentistypicallytheresultofnewpoliticalpartiesmobilizing socialgroupsaroundnewsocialcon flicts.Incontinuationoftheliteratureon ‘newpolitics’,Kriesietal.(2008,2012)thusfocusonhowthenewsocial con flictaroundglobalizationmobilizedbyradicalright-wingpartieshas becomeanew,seconddimensionofpartypolitics.
Thesecondtheoreticalapproachcanbelabelledasatop-downorstrategic approachinwhichtheissuecontentofpartypoliticsreflectsthestrategic competitionamongpoliticalparties.Politicalpartiestrytoattractattentionto theissuesthey findattractive,andpoliticalpartiesthat findthecurrentissue contentofpartypoliticstotheirdisadvantagetrytointroducenewissues. Schattschneider’s(1960)ideaofthe ‘ con flictofcon flicts’ istheclassicwork withinthistradition,whichalsoemphasizeshowpoliticalpartiesareableto
structuresocialcon flicts(CarminesandStimson1986).Thestrategic approachisfundamentallyaneliteperspectiveontheissuecontentofparty politics.Thebottom-upandtop-downapproachesofferquitedifferentunderstandingsofwhatdriveschangeintheissuecontentofpartypolitics.Isit drivenbychangeinsocialcon flictsorstrategicelitebehaviour?Astwo relativelydistincttypesofliteraturehaveemergedaroundthem,theyprovide ausefulwayoforganizingthediscussioninthefollowing.
Theissueincentivemodelisanexampleofatop-downoreliteapproach. Therefore,thepresentationsofthetwoapproachesdifferslightlyasthe presentationofthetop-downapproachalsopresentsanumberofconcepts andideaswhichareusedtodevelopthe ‘issueincentivemodel’ inChapter3. Furthermore,thepresentationofthebottom-upapproachfocusesonpresentingthemostrecent,prominentexamplesofsuchanapproach(Beramendi etal.2015;HoogheandMarks2018;Kriesietal.2008,2012).Thepresentationofthetop-downapproachismorefragmentedastheliteraturewithinthis approachmainlyconsistsofjournalarticlesinwhichdifferentelementsofthis approachhavebeendeveloped.
BOTTOM-UPAPPROACHESTOTHECONTENT OFPARTYPOLITICS LipsetandRokkan’s(1967)classicworkonhowsocialcleavagesshapedWest Europeanpartysystemswhentheyformedinthelatenineteenthandearly twentiethcenturycanbeseenasthefoundationofthebottom-uporsociologicalapproach.Thekeyideaoftheoriginalcleavageapproachisthat societalcon flicts,liketheonebetweenworkersandownersofcapital,become institutionalizedinpoliticsthroughpartysystemsorganizedalongthese con flictlines.Thus,whatcharacterizesacleavage ratherthanjustacon flict lineinthepartysystem isthatpartycon flictsarerootedinkeysocial characteristicslikestatusorreligionand findanorganizationalexpression throughforinstanceapoliticalparty(Mair2006:373).Thecapitalist/worker cleavageisthemostprominentexample.Threepointsareworthhighlighting further.First,thetransformationofsocialcharacteristicsintoacleavageisno automaticprocess.Itistheresultofmobilizationbyelites(Kitschelt1994: 8–39).Second,oncecleavagesareestablished,peoplebelongingtothesame sideofacleavage,e.g.workers,notonlysharecommoninterestsbut,more importantly,acommonidentity.Fromacleavageperspective,beingaworker isnotsomuchaquestionofinterestasitisaquestionofidentity(Bartolini andMair1990:212–49).Third,theideaofinstitutionalizationplaysakey role.Thecleavagesthatweremobilizedwhenmostpartysystemswereformed
