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MAKING AI INTELLIGIBLE

herman cappelen and josh dever

MAKING AI INTELLIGIBLE

Philosophical Foundations

1

Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, ox2 6dp, United Kingdom

Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries

© Herman Cappelen and Josh Dever 2021

The moral rights of the authors have been asserted

First Edition published in 2021

Impression: 1

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This is an open access publication, available online and distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial – No Derivatives 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), a copy of which is available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of this licence should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above

Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America

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Library of Congress Control Number: 2020951691

ISBN 978–0–19–289472–4

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780192894724.001.0001

Printed and bound in Great Britain by Clays Ltd, Elcograf S.p.A.

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part i INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW

1

INTRODUCTION

The Goals of This Book: The Role of Philosophy in AI Research

This is a book about some aspects of the philosophical foundations of Artificial Intelligence. Philosophy is relevant to many aspects of AI and we don’t mean to cover all of them.1 Our focus is on one relatively underexplored question: Can philosophical theor ies of meaning, language, and content help us understand, explain, and maybe also improve AI systems? Our answer is ‘Yes’. To show this, we first articulate some pressing issues about how to interpret and explain the outputs we get

1 Thus we are not going to talk about the consequences that the new wave in AI might have for the empiricism/rationalism debate (see Buckner 2018), nor are we going to consider—much—the question of whether it is reasonable to say that what these programs do is ‘learning’ in anything like the sense with which we are familiar (Buckner 2019, 4.2), and we’ll pass over interesting questions about what we can learn about philosophy of mind from deep learning (López-Rubio 2018). We are not going to talk about the clearly very important ethical issues involved, either the recondite ones, science-fictional ones (such as the paperclip maximizer and Roko’s Basilisk (see e.g. Bostrom 2014 for some of these issues)), or the more down-to-earth issues about, for example, self-driving cars (Nyholm and Smids 2016, Lin et al. 2017), or racist and sexist bias in AI resulting from racist and sexist data sets (Zou and Schiebinger 2018). We also won’t consider political consequences and implications for policy making (Floridi et al. 2018).

from advanced AI systems. We then use philosophical theories to answer questions like the above.

An Illustration: Lucie’s Mortgage Application is Rejected

Here is a brief story to illustrate how we use certain forms of artificial intelligence and how those uses raise pressing philosophical questions:

Lucie needs a mortgage to buy a new house. She logs onto her bank’s webpage, fills in a great deal of information about herself and her financial history, and also provides account names and passwords for all of her social media accounts. She submits this to the bank. In so doing, she gives the bank permission to access her credit score. Within a few minutes, she gets a message from her bank saying that her application has been declined. It has been declined because Lucie’s credit score is too low; it’s 550, which is considered very poor. No human beings were directly involved in this decision. The calculation of Lucie’s credit score was done by a very sophisticated form of artificial intelligence, called SmartCredit. A natural way to put it is that this AI system says that Lucie has a low credit score and on that basis, another part of the AI system decides that Lucie should not get a mortgage.

It’s natural for Lucie to wonder where this number 550 came from. This is Lucie’s first question:

Lucie’s First Question. What does the output ‘550’ that has been assigned to me mean?

The bank has a ready answer to that question: the number 550 is a credit score, which represents how credit-worthy Lucie is. (Not very, unfortunately.) But being told this doesn’t satisfy Lucie’s

unease. On reflection, what she really wants to know is why the output means that. This is Lucie’s second question:

Lucie’s Second Question: Why is the ‘550’ that the computer displays on the screen an assessment of my credit-worthiness? What makes it mean that?

It’s then natural for Lucie to suspect that answering this question requires understanding how SmartCredit works. What’s going on under the hood that led to the number 550 being assigned to Lucie? The full story gets rather technical, but the central details can be set out briefly:

Simple Sketch of How a Neural Network Works2

SmartCredit didn’t begin life as a credit scoring program. Rather, it started life as a general neural network. Its building blocks are small ‘neuron’ programs. Each neuron is designed to take a list of input data points and apply some mathematical function to that list to produce a new output list. Different neurons can apply different functions, and even a single neuron can change, over time, which function it applies.

The neurons are then arranged into a network. That means that various neurons are interconnected, so that the output of one neuron provides part of the input to another neuron. In particular, the neurons are arranged into layers. There is a top layer of neurons—none of these neurons are connected to each other, and all of them are designed to receive input from some outside data source. Then there is a second layer. Neurons on the top layer are connected to neurons on the second layer, so that top layer neurons

2 For a gentle and quick introduction to the computer science behind basic neural networks, see Rashid 2016. A relatively demanding article-length introduction is LeCun et al. 2015, and a canonical textbook that doesn’t shirk detail and is freely available online is Goodfellow et al. 2016.

provide inputs to second layer neurons. Each top layer neuron is connected to every second layer neuron, but the connections also have variable weight. Suppose the top layer neurons T1 and T2 are connected to second layer neurons S1 and S2, but that the T1-to-S1 connection and the T2-to-S2 connections are weighted heavily while the T1-to-S2 connection and the T2-to-S1 connections are weighted lightly. Then the input to S1 will be a mixture of the T1 and T2 outputs with the T1 output dominating, while the input to S2 will be a mixture of the T1 and T2 outputs with the T2 output dominating. And just as the mathematical function applied by a given neuron can change, so can the weighting of connections between neurons.

After the second layer there is a third layer, and then a fourth, and so on. Eventually there is a bottom layer, the output of which is the final output of SmartCredit. The bottom layer of neurons is designed so that that final output is always some number between 1 and 1000.

The bank offers to show Lucie a diagram of the SmartCredit neural network. It’s a complicated diagram—there are 10 levels, each containing 128 neurons. That means there are about 150,000 connections between neurons, each one labelled with some weight. And each neuron is marked with its particular mathematical transformation function, represented by a list of thousands of coefficients determining a particular linear transformation on a thousands-of-dimensions vector.

Lucie finds all of this rather unilluminating. She wonders what any of these complicated mathematical calculations has to do with why she can’t get a loan for a new house. The bank continues explaining. So far, Lucie is told, none of this information about the neural network structure of SmartCredit explains why it’s evaluating Lucie’s creditworthiness. To learn about that, we need to consider the neural network’s training history.

A bit more about how SmartCredit was created

Once the initial neural network was programmed, designers started training it. They trained it by giving it inputs of the sort that Lucie has also helpfully provided. Inputs were thus very long lists of data including demographic information (age, sex, race, residential location, and so on), financial information (bank account balances, annual income, stock holdings, income tax report contents, and so on), and an enormous body of social media data (posts liked, groups belonged to, Twitter accounts followed, and so on). In the end, all of this data is just represented as a long list of numbers. These inputs are given to the initial neural network, and some final output is produced. The programmers then evaluate that output, and give the program a score based on how acceptable its output was that measures the program’s error score. If the output was a good output, the score is a low score; if the output was bad, the score is a high score. The program then responds to the score by trying to redesign its neural network to produce a lower score for the same input. There are a number of complicated mathematical methods that can be used to do the redesigning, but they all come down to making small changes in weighting and checking to see whether those small changes would have made the score lower or higher. Typically, this then means that a bunch of differential equations need to be solved. With the necessary computations done, the program adjusts its weights, and then it’s ready for the next round of training.

Lucie, of course, is curious about where this scoring method came from—how do the programmers decide whether SmartCredit has done a good job in assigning a final output to input data?

The Scoring Method

The bank explains that the programmers started with a database of millions of old credit cases. Each case was a full demographic, financial, and social media history of a particular person, as well as a credit score that an old-fashioned human credit assessor had assigned to that person. SmartCredit was then trained on that data

set—over and over it was given inputs (case histories) from the data set, and its neural network output was scored against the original credit assessment. And over and over SmartCredit reweighted its own neural network trying to get its outputs more and more in line with the original credit assessments.

That’s why, the bank explains, SmartCredit has the particular collections of weights and functions that it does in its neural network. With a different training set, the same underlying program could have developed different weights and ended up as a program for evaluating political affiliation, or for determining people’s favourite movies, or just about anything that might reasonably be extracted from the mess of input social media data.

Lucie, though, finds all of this a bit too abstract to be very helpful. What she wants to know is why she, in particular, was assigned a score of 550, in particular. None of this information about the neural architecture or the training history of SmartCredit seems to answer that question.

How all this applies to Lucie

Wanting to be helpful, the bank offers to let Lucie watch the computational details of SmartCredit’s assessment of Lucie’s case. First they show Lucie what the input data for her case looks like. It’s a list of about 100,000 integers. The bank can tell Lucie a bit about the meaning of that list—they explain that one number represents the number of Twitter followers she has, and another number represents the number of times she has ‘liked’ commercial postings on Facebook, and so on.

Then they show Lucie how that initial data is processed by SmartCredit. Here things become more obscure. Lucie can watch the computations filter their way down the neural network. Each neuron receives an input list and produces an output list, and those output lists are combined using network weightings to produce inputs for subsequent neurons. Eventually, sure enough, the number ‘550’ drops out of the bottom layer.

But Lucie feels rather unilluminated by that cascading sequence of numbers. She points to one neuron in the middle of the network and to the first number (13,483) in the output sequence of that neuron. What, she asks, does that particular number mean? What is it saying about Lucie’s credit worthiness? This is Lucie’s third question:

Lucie’s Third Question: How is the final meaningful state of SmartCredit (the output ‘550’, meaning that Lucie’s credit score is 550) the result of other meaningful considerations that SmartCredit is taking into account?

The bank initially insists that that question doesn’t really have an answer. That particular neuron’s output doesn’t by itself mean anything—it’s just part of a big computational procedure that holistically yields an assessment of Lucie’s credit worthiness. No particular point in the network can be said to mean anything in particular—it’s the network as a whole that’s telling the bank something.

Lucie is understandably somewhat sceptical at this point. How, she wonders, can a bunch of mathematical transformations, none of which in particular can be tied to any meaningful assessment of her credit-worthiness, somehow all add up to saying something about whether she should get a loan? So she tries a different approach. Maybe looking at the low-level computational details of SmartCredit isn’t going to be illuminating, but perhaps she can at least be told what it was in her history that SmartCredit found objectionable. Was it her low annual income that was re sponsible? Was it those late credit card payments in her early twenties? Or was it the fact that she follows a number of fans of French film

on Twitter? Lucie here is trying her third question again—she is still looking for other meaningful states of SmartCredit that explain its final meaningful output, but no longer insisting that those meaningful states be tied to specific low-level neuron conditions of the program.

Unfortunately, the bank doesn’t have much helpful to say about this, either. It’s easy enough to spot particular variables in the initial data set—the bank can show her where in the input her annual income is, and where her credit card payment history is, and where her Twitter follows are. But they don’t have much to say about how SmartCredit then assesses these different factors. All they can do is point again to the cascading sequence of calculations—there are the initial numbers, and then there are millions upon millions of mathematical operations on those initial numbers, eventually dropping out a final output number. The bank explains that that huge sequence of mathematical operations is just too long and complicated to be humanly understood—there’s just no point in trying to follow the details of what’s going on. No one could hold all of those numbers in their head, and even if they could, it’s not clear that doing so would lead to any real insight into what features of the case led to the final credit score.

Abstraction: The Relevant Features of the Systems We Will be Concerned with in This Book

Our concern is not with any particular algorithm or AI systems. It is also not with any particular way of creating a neural network. These will change over time and the cutting edge of programming today will seem dated in just a year or two. To identify what we

will be concerned with, we must first distinguish two levels at which an AI system can be characterized:

• On the one hand, it is an abstract mathematical structure. As such it exists outside space and time (it is not located anywhere, has no weight, and doesn’t start existing at any particular point in time).

• However, when humans use and engage with AI, they have to engage with something that exists as a physical object, something they can see or hear or feel. This will be the physical implementation (or realization) of the abstract structure. When Lucie’s application was rejected, the rejection was presented to her as a token of numbers and letters on a computer screen. These were physical phenomena, generated by silicon chips, various kinds of wires, and other physical things (many of them in different locations around the world).

This book is not about a particular set of silicon chips and wires. It is also not about any particular program construed as an abstract object. So we owe you an account of what the book is about. Here is a partial characterization of what we have in mind when we talk about ‘the outputs of AI systems’ in what follows:3

• The output (e.g. the token of ‘550’ that occurs on a particular screen) is produced by things that are not human. The non-human status of the producer can matter in at least three ways:

First, these programs don’t have the same kind of physical implementation as our brains do. They may use ‘neurons’, but their

3 This is not an effort to specify necessary and sufficient conditions for being an AI system—that’s not a project we think is productive or achievable.

neurons are not the same kind of things as our neurons—they differ of course physically (being non-biological), but also computationally (they don’t process inputs and produce outputs in the same way as our neurons). And their neurons are massively different in number and arrangement from our neurons, and massively different in the way they dynamically respond to feedback.

Second, these programs don’t have the same abilities as we do. We have emotional repertoires and sensory experiences they lack, and arguably have beliefs, desires, hopes, and fears that they also lack. On the other hand, they have computational speeds and accuracies that we lack.

Third, these programs don’t have the same histories that we do. They haven’t had the kind of childhoods we have had, and in particular haven’t undergone the same experiences of language acquisition and learning that we have. In short, they are non-human (where we will leave the precise characterization of this somewhat vague and open-ended).

• When we look under the hood—as Lucie did in the story above— what we find is not intelligible to us. It’s a black box. It will operate in ways that are too complex for us to understand. It’s important to highlight right away that this particular feature doesn’t distinguish it from humans: when you look under the hood of a human, what you will find is brain tissue—and at a higher level, what looks like an immensely complex neutral network. In that sense, the human mind is also a black box, but as we pointed out above, the physical material under the hood/ skull is radically different.

• The systems we are concerned with are made by human programmers with their own beliefs and plans. As Lucie saw, understanding SmartCredit requires looking beyond the program itself to the way that the program was trained. But the training was done by people, who selected an initial range of data, assigned target scores to those initial training cases based on their own plans for what the program should track, and created specific dynamic methods for the program to adjust its neural network in the face of training feedback.

• The systems we are concerned with are systems that are intended to play a specific role, and are perceived as playing that role. SmartCredit isn’t just some ‘found artefact’ that’s a mysterious black box for transforming some numbers into other numbers. It’s a program that occupies a specific social role: it was designed specifically to assign credit scores, and it’s used by banks because it’s perceived as assigning credit scores. It’s treated as useful, as producing outputs that really are meaningful and helpful credit scores, and it becomes entrenched in the social role it occupies because it’s perceived as useful in that way.

None of this adds up to a complete metaphysics of AI systems. That’s not the aim of this book. Instead, we hope it puts readers in a position to identify at least a large range of core cases.

The Ubiquity of AI Decision-Making

SmartCredit raises concerns about what its outputs mean. But SmartCredit is only the tip of the iceberg. We are increasingly surrounded by AI systems that use neural network machine learning methods to perform various sorts of classifications. Image recognition software classifies faces for security purposes, tags photographs on social media, performs handwriting analysis, guides military drones to their targets, and identifies obstacles and street signs for self-driving cars. But AI systems of this sort aren’t limited to simple classification tasks. The same underlying neural network programming methods give rise, for example, to strategic game-playing. Google’s AlphaZero has famously achieved superhuman levels of performance in chess, Go, and Shogi. Other machine learning approaches have been applied to a wide variety of games, including video games such as Pac-Man, Doom, and

Minecraft.4 Other AI systems perform variants of the kind of ‘expert system’ recommendation as SmartCredit. Already there are AI systems that attempt to categorize skin lesions as cancerous or not, separate spam emails and malware from useful emails, determine whether building permits should be granted and whether prisoners should receive parole, figure out whether children are being naughty or nice using video surveillance, and work out people’s sexual orientations from photographs of their faces. Other AI systems use machine learning to make predictions. For example, product recommendation software attempts to ex trapolate from earlier purchases to likely future purchases, and traffic software attempts to predict future locations of congestion based on earlier traffic conditions. Machine learning can also be used for data mining, in which large quantities of data are analysed to try to find new and unexpected patterns. For example, the data mining program Word2Vec extracted from a database of old scientific papers new and unexpected scientific conclusions about thermoelectric materials.

These AI systems are able to perform certain tasks at extraordinar ily high levels of precision and accuracy—identifying certain patterns much more reliably, and on the basis of much noisier input, than we can, and making certain kinds of strategic decisions with much higher accuracy than we can—and both their sophistication and their number are rapidly increasing. We should expect that in the future many of our interactions with the world will be mediated by AI systems, and many of our current intellectual activities will be replaced or augmented by AI systems.

4 See https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ai-learns-playing-video-gamesstarcraft-minecraft for some discussion about the state and importance of AI in gaming.

Given all that, it would be nice to know what these AI systems mean. That means we want to know two things. First, we want to know what the AI systems mean with their explicit outputs. When the legal software displays the word ‘guilty’, does it really mean that the defendant is guilty? Is guilt really what the software is tracking? Second, we want to know what contentful states the AI systems have that aren’t being explicitly revealed. When AlphaZero makes a chess move, is it making it for reasons that we can understand? When SmartCredit gives Lucie a credit score of 550, is it weighing certain factors and not others?

If we can’t assign contents to AI systems, and we can’t know what they mean, then we can’t in some important sense understand our interactions with them. If Lucie is denied a loan by SmartCredit, she wants to understand why SmartCredit denied the loan. That matters to Lucie, both practically (she’d like to know what she needs to change to have a better chance at a loan next time) and morally (understanding why helps Lucie not view her treatment as capricious). And it matters to the bank and to us. If we can’t tell why SmartCredit is making the decisions that it is, then we will find it much harder to figure out when and why SmartCredit is making its occasional errors.

As AI systems take on a larger and larger role in our lives, these considerations of understanding become increasingly important. We don’t want to live in a world in which we are imprisoned for reasons we can’t understand, subject to invasive medical conditions for reasons we can’t understand, told whom to marry and when to have children for reasons we can’t understand. The use of AI systems in scientific and intellectual research won’t be very productive if it can only give us results without explanations (a neural network that assures us that the ABC conjecture is true

without being able to tell us why it is true isn’t much use). And things are even worse if such programs start announcing scientific results using categories that we’re not sure we know the content of.

We are in danger, then, of finding ourselves living in an increasingly meaningless world. And as we’ve seen, it’s a pressing danger, because if there is meaning to be found in the states and activities of these AI systems, it’s not easily found by looking under the hood and considering their programming. Looking under the hood, all we see is jumbles of neurons passing around jumbles of numbers.

But at the same time, there’s reason for optimism. After all, if you look under our hoods, you also see jumbles of neurons, this time passing around jumbles of electrical impulses. That hasn’t gotten in the way of our producing meaningful outputs and having meaningful internal states. The hope then is that reflecting on how we manage to achieve meaning might help us understand how AI systems also achieve meaning.

However, we also want to emphasize that it’s a guarded hope. Neural network programs are a little like us, but only a little. They are also very different in ways that will come out in our subsequent discussion. Both philosophy and science fiction have had an eye from time to time on the problem of communicating with and understanding aliens, but the aliens considered have never really been all that alien. In science fiction, we get the alien language in Star Trek’s Darmok,5 which turns out to be basically English with more of a literary flourish, the heptapod language of ‘Story of Your Life’,6 which uses a two-dimensional syntax to

5 See Star Trek: The Next Generation, season 5 episode 2.

6 In Chiang, Stories of Your Life And Others, Tor Books, 2002. The book was the inspiration for the film Arrival.

present in a mildly encoded way what look like familiar contents, and the Quintans of Stanislaw Lem’s 1986 novel Fiasco, who are profoundly culturally incomprehensible but whose occasional linguistic utterances have straightforward contents. In philosophy, consideration of alien languages either starts with the assumptions that the aliens share with us a basic cognitive architecture of beliefs, desires, reasons, and actions, or (as Davidson does) concludes that if the aliens aren’t that much like us, then whatever they do simply can’t count as a language.

Our point is that the aliens are already among us, and they’re much more alien than our idle contemplation of aliens would have led us to suspect. Not only that, but they are weirdly alien—we have built our own aliens, so they are simultaneously alien and familiar. That’s an exciting philosophical opportunity—our understanding of philosophical concepts becomes deeper and richer by confronting cases that take us outside our familiar territory. We want simultaneously to explore the prospect of taking what we already know about how familiar creatures like us come to have content and using that knowledge to make progress in understanding how AI systems have content, and also see what the prospects are for learning how the notions of meaning and content might need to be broadened and expanded to deal with these new cases.

The Central Questions of this Book

Philosophy can help us understand many aspects of AI. There are salient moral questions such as whether we should let AI play these important social roles. What are the moral and social

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