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ImmiserizingGrowth
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ImmiserizingGrowth
WhenGrowthFailsthePoor
Editedby PaulShaffer,RaviKanbur,andRichardSandbrook
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Acknowledgements
WearegratefultotheInternationalDevelopmentResearchCentreand CornellUniversityfortheirgeneroussupportoftheImmiserizingGrowth projectandtotheDepartmentofPoliticalScience,UniversityofTorontofor hostingtheWorkshoponImmiserizingGrowth,26–7May2017.Particular thanks,inthisregard,aredueArjanDeHaan(IDRC)andLouisPauly (UniversityofToronto).Wearealsoveryappreciativeoftheinputprovided fromthefollowingresourcepersonsandrefereesforthevolume:Channing Arndt,AlbertBerry,ChrisBeyers,GerryHelleiner,SueHorton,Gustavo Indart,andDipakMazumdar.Excellentresearchassistancewasprovided byDaniellaSilveiraandClairePerttula.
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Contents
ListofFigures xi
ListofTables xiii
ListofContributors xv
PartI.IntroductionandOverview
1.Introduction3 PaulShaffer,RaviKanbur,andRichardSandbrook
2.ImmiserizingGrowth:AnOverview21 PaulShaffer
PartII.PoliticalEconomyandPolitics
3.ThePoliticsofImmiserizingGrowth:MexicoinComparative Perspective55 JudithTeichman
4.PoliticalSettlementsandImmiserizingGrowthEpisodes85 KunalSen
5.ExploringtheCausesofImmiserizingGrowth:AComparison ofPathways106 BenjaminLiu,SiyuanYeo,andJohnA.Donaldson
PartIII.CaseStudies
6.RicherbutNotHappier:FourAreasofReformsintheNext PhaseofDevelopmentinChina139 Shang-JinWeiandXiaoboZhang
7.ImmiserizingGrowthandPovertyDynamics:AnAssessment ofTwelveIndianStates146 VidyaDiwakar,AndyMcKay,andAndrewShepherd
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8.HastheEconomyLefttheChildrenBehind?Nutritional ImmiserizationinIndia176 AnjanaThampi
9.Maria’sParadox:OilExtractionandtheMiseryofMissing DevelopmentAlternativesintheEcuadorianAmazon203 MuratArsel,LorenzoPellegrini,andCarlosMena
10.IsStructuralTransformation-ledEconomicGrowth ImmiserizingorInclusive?TheCaseofIndonesia226 KyunghoonKim,AndySumner,andAriefAnshoryYusuf
11.TheParadoxofPersistentPovertyAmidHighGrowth: TheCaseofNigeria250 RasakiStephenDauda
ListofFigures
2.1.Therelationshipbetweenchangesinsurveymeanincome/consumption andalternativemeasuresofpoverty36
2.2.TherelationshipbetweenchangesinGDP/capandalternative measuresofpoverty37
4.1.Responseofabsoluteandrelativepovertytochangesinthegrowthrate90
4.2.Thedistributionofverticalandhorizontalpowerinpoliticalsettlements93
4.3.Distributionofverticalandhorizontalpowerforselectedcountries98
7.1.Poverty(left)andgrowth(right)basedonNSScomparedtoIHDSdata155
7.2.Population-weightedpovertytrajectoriesbygrowthregime156
7.3.Population-weightedpovertytrajectoriesbystate157
7.4.Relationshipbetweenchronicpoverty,initialpovertyrate(left) andincomegrowthrate(right)158
7.5.Educationratesbygrowthregime159
7.6.Relationshipbetweenvolatility,chronicpoverty(left)and impoverishment(right)160
7.7.Presenceofinfrastructurewithin0.5kmofvillagecentre161
7.8.MobilityamongAdivasis162
7.9.Povertydynamics:ChhattisgarhandotherIndianstates163
7.10.SectoralshareofGDP,2011163
7.11.Districtsthatwereconflict-affectedinIndiain2005or2011165
7.12.Ratesofpovertydescentbysocio-religiousgroup,2005–11166
A7.1.Growthincidencecurves169
8.1.Prevalenceofunder- fivestunting(%)179
8.2.Prevalenceofunder- fivewasting(%)179
8.3.Trendsinanthropometricindicatorsofunder-threechildren181
8.4.RelationshipbetweenStateHungerIndexandpercapitaNSDP,2006189
8.5.RelationshipbetweenStateHungerIndexandpercapitaNSDP,2016189
8.6.RelationshipbetweenchildstuntingandpercapitaNSDP,2006191
8.7.RelationshipbetweenchildstuntingandpercapitaNSDP,2016192
ListofFigures
8.8.RelationshipbetweenchildwastingandpercapitaNSDP,2006193
8.9.RelationshipbetweenchildwastingandpercapitaNSDP,2016193
8.10.Relationshipbetweenchangeinstuntingandgrowthrateof percapitaNSDP194
8.11.Relationshipbetweenchangeinwastingandgrowthrateof percapitaNSDP195
8.12.Under-sixchildrenwhoreceivedIntegratedChildDevelopment Services(%)198
9.1.Oilspillfromaburstpipelineasseenfromadrone217
9.2. ‘Nightclub’‘TheOilman’,Pacayacu,Sucumbíos218
9.3.Thepublictransportcompanycalled ‘OilCompany’,Tarapoa, Sucumbíos219
9.4.Hotel ‘TheOilman’,AguasNegras,Sucumbíos220
9.5.OneofthenumerousbillboardsplacedbytheEcuadorianstate221
10.1.Employmentshareofmanufacturingsector,selectedAsiancountries228
10.2.Economicgrowthandgrowthelasticityofpoverty,Indonesia232
10.3.Populationstructurebyincomeclass,Indonesia233
10.4.Decompositionoflabourproductivitygrowth,Indonesia235
10.5.Employmentshareandrelativeproductivity,Indonesia237
10.6.Employmentshareandrelativeproductivityofmanufacturing sector,Indonesia238
10.7.GDPpercapitaandemploymentshareofagriculturalsector,Japanand Indonesia239
10.8.Economy-wideproductivityandratiobetweenagricultural productivityandnon-agriculturalproductivity,Indonesia240
10.9.GDPpercapitaandemploymentshareandvalue-addedshare ofmanufacturingsector,selectedAsiancountries242
10.10.Theshareoffactoroutlayinservicessector’svalue-added,Indonesia245
11.1.PovertymeasuresandGDPpercapitainNigeria,1992–2009251
11.2.VariousmeasuresofpercapitaincomeforNigeria,1990–2015252
11.3.RatesofunemploymentandpercapitaGDPinNigeria,1990–2016256
11.4.Percentageoftotalbudgetallocationtoeducationandhealth sectorsinNigeria,1999–2017258
11.5.Fuel,food,andmanufacturesimportsaspercentagesof merchandiseimportsforNigeria,1991–2014262
ListofTables
1.1.Harmfulsequencesofimmiserizinggrowth11
2.1.Growthsemi-elasticitiesandelasticitiesofpoverty(recentstudies)35
2.2.Regressionresults:growthelasticitiesandsemi-elasticitiesofpoverty38
A2.1.Spellseliminatedfromthedatasetduetolowpovertyincidence45
A2.2.Annualchangesinpovertyincidence($PPP1.90)andincomeor consumptionexpenditure46
A2.3.Annualgrowthinincomeorconsumptionexpenditureofbottom quintilesandoverall(2011PPP)47
4.1.Povertyresponsetogrowthanddistributionofpower,shortduration99
4.2.Povertyresponsetogrowthanddistributionofpower,longduration100
4.3.Regressionresults101
7.1.GDP,growth,andofficialestimatesofpovertyacrosstwelve indianstates152
7.2.Growthregimesofstates156
7.3.Twosamplez-testsforpovertytrajectories,comparingPPGtoIGstates156
7.4.Growthdiagnosticbygrowthregime160
7.5.Twosamplez-testforinfrastructurevariables,comparing PPGtoIGstates161
A7.1.Percentagevaluesforpopulation-weightedpovertytrajectoriesby growthregimeandstate170
A7.2.Summarystatistics171
A7.3.Multinomiallogisticregressionresults172
8.1.ComparativepictureofIndiaandChina180
8.2.Under-fivestuntingbystate(%)182
8.3.Under-fivewastingbystate(%)184
8.4.Statehungerindexesin2006and2016185
8.5.ChildrenwhoreceivedICDSservicesinOdishaandChhattisgarh(%)188
8.6.Regressionresults194
8.7.PublicexpenditureonhealthasapercentageofGDPinIndia197
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ListofTables
A8.1.ComponentsofStateHungerIndex,2006199
A8.2.ComponentsofStateHungerIndex,2016200
10.1.Keycharacteristicsofsubperiods,Indonesia235
11.1.GrowthratesofvariousincomemeasuresforNigeria,1992–2009252
11.2.PovertyinNigeriabydifferentmeasures,1992–2009253
11.3.Growthsemi-elasticitiesofpovertyforNigeria,1992–6and2003–9254
11.4.Nigeriainequalitytrends(Ginicoef ficient),2004and2010257
ListofContributors
MuratArsel isAssociateProfessorofEnvironmentandDevelopmentattheInternational InstituteofSocialStudies(ISS)ofErasmusUniversityRotterdamandAdjunctProfessor atUniversidadSanFranciscodeQuito,Ecuador.Inadditiontothepoliticaleconomyof extractiveindustries,heiscurrentlyworkingonauthoritarianpopulismandcritical developmenttheory.
RasakiStephenDauda isanEconomicsLecturerandCoordinatoroftheMultidisciplinaryMBAprogramme,DepartmentofEconomicsandBusinessStudies,Redeemer’s University,Nigeria.Hisresearchinterestsinclude:humancapital,HIV/AIDS,poverty, growth,anddevelopmentissues.
VidyaDiwakar isamixed-methodsresearcherintheChronicPovertyAdvisoryNetwork.Shespecializesingender-disaggregated,appliedeconometricanalysisofpoverty dynamics,conflict,andeducation.Her fieldworkcentresonSouthAsia,whileherwider researchportfolioalsocoverstheMENAregionandsub-SaharanAfrica.
JohnA.Donaldson,AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScienceatSingaporeManagement University,istheauthorof SmallWorks:PovertyandEconomicDevelopmentinSouthwesternChina (2011).Overthelastdecade,ProfessorDonaldsonhasauthoredand co-authorednumerousjournalandconferencepapersaswellasotheracademicpublicationsonissuessuchaspovertyreductionandeconomicgrowthinChina,the transformationofChina’sagrariansystem,andcentral–provincialrelationsinChina. Inaddition,heservesasaSeniorResearchFellowwiththeLienCentreforSocial Innovation,workingwiththeSMUChangeLabtoresearchanddesigninnovative solutionstounmetneedsinvulnerablecommunitiesinSingapore.
RaviKanbur istheT.H.LeeProfessorofWorldAffairs,InternationalProfessorof AppliedEconomicsandManagement,andProfessorofEconomics,CornellUniversity. Hehaspublishedintheleadingeconomicsjournalsandhasalsoservedonthesenior staffoftheWorldBankincludingasChiefEconomistforAfrica.HeisPresidentofthe HumanDevelopmentandCapabilitiesAssociation,ChairoftheBoardofUnited NationsUniversity WorldInstituteforDevelopmentEconomicsResearch,Co-Chair oftheScientificCounciloftheInternationalPanelonSocialProgress,memberofthe OECDHighLevelExpertGroupontheMeasurementofEconomicPerformance,past PresidentoftheSocietyfortheStudyofEconomicInequality,pastmemberoftheHigh LevelAdvisoryCounciloftheClimateJusticeDialogue,andpastmemberoftheCore GroupoftheCommissiononGlobalPoverty.
ListofContributors
KyunghoonKim isaPhDcandidateattheDepartmentofInternationalDevelopment, King’sCollegeLondon.HisresearchfocusesontheroleofIndonesia’sstate-owned enterprisesineconomicdevelopment.HereceivedaMScfromtheLSEandhasworked asaresearchfellowattheSamsungEconomicResearchInstitute,Korea.
BenjaminLiu obtainedhisBAinsociologyatSingaporeManagementUniversityin 2018.Asastudent,heinternedattheCentreforStrategicFutures,workingforthe Singaporegovernmenttoidentifyemergingstrategicissuesinthemediumtolong term,anddesignpolicygamestohelpofficialscontendwiththoserealities.Hisresearch interestslieintheareaofpovertyreduction,resourceoptimization,socialengineering, andalternativesocialorganizations,withaparticularfocusonsocialistplanningand othermodernist-rationalistprojects.
CarlosMena isProfessorofGeographyatUniversidadSanFranciscodeQuito.His currentworkanalysestheinteractionsbetweenhumansandtheenvironmentusing GIS,remotesensing,socialsurvey,andpoliticalecologyinthewesternAmazonandin theGalapagosIslands.
AndyMcKay isProfessorofDevelopmentEconomicsattheUniversityofSussex,where heresearchesonissuesofpovertyandlivingstandards,labour,andagricultureamong otherareas,especiallyinsub-SaharanAfricaandAsia.Currentlyheleadsorco-leadstwo researchprojectslookingatfemalelabourissues;previouslyhewasactivelyinvolvedin theDFID-fundedChronicPovertyResearchCentre.HealsoactsasManagingEditorof the ReviewofDevelopmentEconomics
LorenzoPellegrini isAssociateProfessorofEconomicsofEnvironmentandDevelopmentattheInternationalInstituteofSocialStudiesofErasmusUniversity(ISS)and AdjunctProfessorattheUniversitySanFranciscoofQuito,Ecuador.Hisresearch interestsincludethesocio-environmentalimpactofextractiveindustries,environmentaljustice,impactevaluation,institutions,andcorruption.
RichardSandbrook isProfessorEmeritusofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityof Toronto.Hiscurrentresearchfocusesontheleft’sexperienceintheGlobalSouthand oncounter-hegemonicglobalization.HehastaughtinKenyaaswellasCanadaandhas beenavisitingresearchfellowattheIDS,SussexandtheCentreforDevelopment ResearchinCopenhagen.Hehasconducted fieldworkmainlyinAfrica.Hehaspublishedmorethan fiftyscholarlyarticlesandtwelvebooks,includingmostrecently ReinventingtheLeftintheGlobalSouth:ThePoliticsofthePossible (2014), Civilizing Globalization:ASurvivalGuide (co-editorandco-author,2014),and SocialDemocracy intheGlobalPeriphery:Origins,Challenges,Prospects (co-author,2007).
KunalSen isProfessorofDevelopmentEconomicsintheGlobalDevelopmentInstitute,UniversityofManchester,andJointResearchDirectoroftheDFID-fundedEffectiveStatesandInclusiveDevelopment(ESID)ResearchCentre.Hiscurrentresearchison thepoliticaleconomyofdevelopment.ProfessorSen’srecentauthoredbooksare The PoliticalEconomyofIndia’sGrowthEpisodes (2016)and OutoftheShadows?TheInformal SectorinPost-ReformIndia (2016).
PaulShaffer isanAssociateProfessorofInternationalDevelopmentStudiesatTrent University,Canada.HisworkfocusesonpovertyintheGlobalSouthonwhichhehas
publishedwidely.Heistheauthorof Q-Squared:CombiningQualitativeandQuantitative ApproachesinPovertyAnalysis (2013).
AndrewShepherd leadstheChronicPovertyAdvisoryNetwork,hostedattheOverseas DevelopmentInstitute,London,whereheisPrincipalResearchFellow.Hehasledthe writingofthreeChronicPovertyReports,andco-producedasubstantialcorpusof researchandpolicyengagementonchronicpovertyandtheeradicationofextreme povertysince2000.HepreviouslyeditedbooksonchronicpovertyinIndia,leadingto a 2011ChronicPovertyReport onIndia,withpartners.
AndySumner isaReaderinInternationalDevelopmentattheDepartmentofInternationalDevelopment,King’sCollegeLondon.HeisDirectoroftheESRCGlobal Poverty&InequalityDynamicsResearchNetwork.Hismostrecentbooksare Global Poverty (2016)and DevelopmentandDistribution (2018).
JudithTeichman isProfessorofPoliticalScienceandInternationalDevelopmentatthe UniversityofToronto,Canada,andafellowoftheRoyalSocietyofCanada.Sheis theauthorof fivebooksandoneco-authoredbookandoverfortyscholarlyarticleson thepoliticsofdevelopment.Hermostrecentbookis ThePoliticsofInclusiveDevelopment,Policy,StateCapacity,andCoalitionBuilding (2016).
AnjanaThampi isadoctoralcandidateattheCentreforEconomicStudiesandPlanning, JawaharlalNehruUniversity,NewDelhi,India.Sheworksontopicsoffoodsecurity, nutrition,andinequality.Herdoctoralthesisstudiesthenutritionalimpactoffood transfersinIndia,inthecontextofthecontinuingdebateoncashversusin-kindtransfers.
Shang-JinWei istheN.T.WangProfessorofChineseBusinessandEconomyand ProfessorofFinanceandEconomicsatColumbiaUniversity’sGraduateSchoolof BusinessandSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairs.HehasservedasChiefEconomistoftheAsianDevelopmentBankandheldseniorpositionsattheIMF,Harvard University,andtheBrookingsInstitution.Dr.Weiisanotedscholaroninternational finance,trade,macroeconomics,andChina,andtherecipientofanumberofprestigiousawards.
SiyuanYeo iscurrentlypursuingaMAinInternationalAffairsattheGraduateInstitute ofInternationalandDevelopmentStudiesinGeneva,withafocusonenvironment, resources,andsustainability.HecompletedhisundergraduatestudiesatSingapore ManagementUniversityin2017withadoubledegreeineconomicsandsocial science(majoringinpoliticalscience).Throughhisstudiesandinvolvementinvarious initiatives,hehasdevelopedkeeninterestsinissuespertainingtopovertyandinequality, refugeesandmigration,humanrights,andinternationalrelations.Heistheco-authorof ‘InhumanPunishmentandHumanRightsActivismintheLittleRedDot’,which appearedinSong(ed.) AHistoryofHumanRightsSocietyinSingapore(1965–2015) (2017).
AriefAnshoryYusuf isProfessorofEconomicsattheDepartmentofEconomics,PadjadjaranUniversity,Indonesia,andVisitingProfessorattheDepartmentofInternational Development,King’sCollegeLondon.HeisalsoanAdjunctFellowattheAustralian NationalUniversityandPresidentofIndonesiaRegionalScienceAssociation.
XiaoboZhang isaDistinguishedChairProfessorofEconomicsattheNationalSchool ofDevelopment,PekingUniversityinChina,andSeniorResearchFellowofIFPRI.
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ListofContributors
Hisresearch fieldsincludeagriculturaleconomics,developmenteconomics,andChineseeconomy.Hehaspublishedwidelyinleadingeconomicsjournalsandisthe recipientoftheSunYefangPrizeforEconomicsResearchinChina(themostprestigious awardinthe fieldofeconomicsinChina)andtheZhangPeigangDevelopment EconomicsOutstandingAchievementAward(thehighestawardinthe fieldofdevelopmenteconomics).Hismostrecentbooksarethe OxfordCompaniontotheEconomicsof China (2014)andthe ChinaRegionalInnovationReport (2016,inChinese).
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IntroductionandOverview
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1 Introduction
PaulShaffer,RaviKanbur,andRichardSandbrook
Introduction
Byimmiserizinggrowth(IG),wearereferringtosituationswhengrowthfails tobenefit,orharms,thoseatthebottom.Accordingly,thetermisbeingused inadifferentsensethanintradetheory,associatedwiththeworksofJagdish Bhagwati(1958),wherebygrowthisdeemedimmiserizingifitleadstoa worseningofthetermsofwhichoffsetsproductivitygains(forpriceorincome inelasticgoods).Admittedly,ourdefinitionisbroadandleavesampleroomfor differentviewsofwhatconstitutes ‘growth’ , ‘benefits’,and ‘harm’,andwho comprisethose ‘atthebottom’,asdiscussedfurtherinthenextsectionon ‘DefinitionalandConceptualMatters’ .
A firstquestionwhichnaturallyarisesiswhyfocusonIG?Afterall,there havebeenhistoricallyunprecedentedreductionsinincomeorconsumption povertyoverthepastquartercenturyorsoamidgrowthintheworldeconomy.RecentestimatesfromtheWorldBank,forexample,suggestthatglobal povertyincidenceatthe$1.90/daypovertylinehasfallenfromaround35per centto10percentbetween1990and2013,whichtranslatesintoareduction inthenumberofpoorbyoverabillion(WorldBank2016:36,46).1 Further, analysesbasedon finer ‘countryspell’ data,whichtrackcountry-specific changesingrowthandpovertyoverspecifictimeperiods,haveconsistently foundapositiverelationshipbetweengrowthandpovertyreduction(see Chapter2forasummaryofthisliterature).Thesedataarethesourceofthe oft-repeatednarrativethat ‘GrowthisGoodforthePoor’ (DollarandKraay 2002;Dollaretal.2016).SowhyfocusonIG?
Theprimaryreasonisthatthereisconsiderable variation intherelationship betweengrowthandincomeorconsumptionpovertyreduction.Asdiscussed furtherinChapter2,suchvariationisreflectedindifferentvaluesofgrowth
(semi-)elasticitiesofpoverty,orpercentage(point)changesinpoverty associatedwithpercentagechangesingrowth.Further,itisreflectedinthe existenceofoutliers,orinstanceswheregrowthhasnottranslatedinto povertyreduction.Specifically,dependingonthedatasetandthegrowth andpovertymeasuresused,between10percentand35percentofobserved countryspellsmaybecharacterizedas ‘immiserizing’ accordingtoourdefinition(seeChapter2).Inaddition,therelationshipbetweengrowthand povertyweakenswhen ‘poverty’ isdefinedmorebroadly,intermsofother dimensionsofdeprivation(McKay2013;Santosetal.2017).
Directingattentiontosuchcasesisimportantforanumberofreasons.First, itbringstotheforedifferenttypesofcausalmechanismswhicharenotsimply theconverseofthosewhichtendtoappearintheliteratureonpro-pooror inclusivegrowth(forexample,Grimmetal.2007;BesleyandCord2007).In thethirdsection, ‘CausalMechanisms:FailedInclusionandActiveExclusion’ , wemakethedistinctionbetween ‘failedinclusion’ and ‘activeexclusion’ to highlightcertainofthedifferenttypesofmechanismsinquestion.Second,it isimportantforpolicypurposesasdifferenttypesofremediesmaybemost appropriatewhenaddressingthecausalforcesdrivingIG.Thestandardpackageofpro-poororinclusivegrowthmeasuresmaybeinsufficientorineffective inthecontextofIG.Third,itislinkedinaparticularwaytotheliteratureon povertydynamics,orthe flowsofpersonsintoandoutofpoverty.Specifically, itdirectsattentiontothosewhodescendintopovertyasaresultofharmful sequencesofeventsassociatedwiththegrowthprocess(activeexclusion) alongwiththechronicpoorwhohavenotbenefittedfromthegrowthprocess duetoeitherfailedinclusionoractiveexclusion.Theissueofaddressing long-termchronicpovertywilllikely figurecentrallyinthecontextofthe so-called ‘lastmile’ inpovertyreduction(Chandyetal.2015),asdiscussedin Chapter10onIndonesia.A finalreasonfordirectingattentiontothistopicis thatitaddressesanimportantgapintheliterature.Despitethefactthatthe ideaofIGhasappearedatleastsincetheIndustrialRevolution,asdiscussedin Chapter2,therehasneverbeenasystematic,comparativetreatmentofthe issuepriortothisvolume.
Chapters3to10ofthisvolumerepresentaselectionofpapersinitially presentedataworkshoponIG,heldduring26–7May2017attheUniversity ofToronto,andorganizedbythevolumeeditors.Theworkshopsoughtto arriveatabetterunderstandingofwhen,why,andhowgrowthfailsthepoor. ThechapterscombinediscussionofmechanismsofIGwithempiricaldata ontrendsingrowth,poverty,andrelatedwelfareindicators.Intermsof mechanisms,politicsandpoliticaleconomyarechosenasusefulentrypoints toexplainIGepisodes(asdiscussedinthefourthsection, ‘AnEntry Point:PoliticalEconomyandPolitics’,ofthischapter,andinPartIIofthe volume).Thedisciplinaryfocusisdiverse,drawingoneconomics,political
economy,appliedsocialanthropology,anddevelopmentstudies.Anumber ofmethodologicalapproachesarerepresented,includingstatisticalanalysisof householdsurveyandcross-countrydata,detailedethnographicwork,and casestudyanalysisdrawingonsecondarydata.Geographicalcoverageis wide,includingBolivia,theDominicanRepublic,Ecuador,India,Indonesia, Mexico,Nigeria,thePeople’sRepublicofChina,Singapore,andSouthKorea, inadditiontocross-countryanalysis.Webelievethatthecontributionsinthe volumeconstituteanimportant firststepin fillingthegapintheliterature thatweidentifyhere.
Theformatoftheremainderofthischapterisasfollows.Thenextsection reviewsdefinitionalandconceptualmatters.Wethenturntocausalmechanismsandunpackthedistinctionbetween ‘failedinclusion’ and ‘activeexclusion.’ Sectionfourexplainswhywebelievepoliticaleconomyandpolitiesare goodentrypointsforthestudyofIG.Thequestionofpovertydynamicsis addressedinsection five,withemphasisplacedonchronicpovertyand impoverishment.Weconcludeinthe finalsectoinwithabriefsummaryof thevolumechapters.
DefinitionalandConceptualMatters
WehavedefinedIGasgrowththatfailstobenefit,orharms,thoseatthe bottom.Thedefinitionisbroadandraisesatleastfourconceptualanddefinitionalquestions:
1.Whatdimensionsofwell-beingorill-beingareconsideredwhendefining ‘benefits’ or ‘harm’?
2.Whatmeasureofincomeorconsumptionisusedwhendefining ‘growth’?
3.Whatistheappropriatetimeframetousewhendeterminingifagrowth episodeisimmiserizing?
4.Shouldtheanalyticalfocusbelimitedtonationaltrendsorinclude populationsubgroups?
Wewillexaminethesequestionsinturninthissection.
BenefitsandHarm
Intheliteratureonpro-poororinclusivegrowth,andbyimplication,IG,a standardwaytodefinebenefitsorharmisintermsofsomemeasureofincome orconsumptionpoverty.2 Ifthefocusisonincomeorconsumptionpoverty, additionaldecisionsmustbetakenaboutthepreferredpovertymeasureand
povertyline.Arangeofdifferentpovertymeasuresappearintheliterature, includingpovertyincidenceandindiceswhichtakeintoaccountthepoverty gap,3 alongwiththeincomeorconsumptiongrowthofthosebelowthe povertyline.Likewise,anumberofdifferentpovertylinesarefound,includingthosebasedonminimalcaloricintake,broadercostofneedsbundles,or simplysetintermsofsomepercentageoftheincome/consumptiondistribution.Chapter2providesanoverviewoftherecentempiricalliteratureon growth(semi-)elasticitiesofpoverty,distinguishingbetweenpovertylines andmeasuresusedinparticularstudies.
Itshouldberecognizedthatanotherstandardmeasureofbenefitsor harmintheinclusivegrowthliteraturefocusesonchangesineitherrelative orabsoluteinequality.4 Wewillgenerallynotfocusonthisimportantissue inthevolume.ThisisbecauseIGisconceptuallydifferentto ‘unequalizing growth’,orgrowthcharacterizedbynegativedistributionalchange.IGemphasizesnegativeorinsignificantchangesinabsolutelevelsoflivingofthoseat thebottom,amidgrowth.Itisaparticularlyperverseformofunequalizing growthwhererisinginequalitycoexistswithlimitedbenefits,orharm,for thoseatthebottom.Forthemostpart,therefore,thefocusofthechaptersin thevolumeisonchangesinabsolutelevelsofliving.
Movingbeyondincomeorconsumption,therearearangeofotherpotentialwaystoconceptualizebenefitsandharmfoundinvariousliteratures whichhavestressedthemultidimensionalnatureofpoverty(WorldBank 2017).Ashortlistwouldincludebasicneeditemsrelatedtohealth,nutrition, mortality,education,accesstowater,sanitation,andsoon.Otherpotential itemsmayincludehappiness,qualityoflife,vulnerability,anddignity, amongothers.Inadditiontoanalysisofsuchitemsindividually,thereis alsoaliteraturewhichexaminestherelationshipbetweengrowthandmultidimensionalpoverty,presentedasasingleindexvaluecomprisingmultiple dimensionsofdeprivation(Santosetal.2017).
Manyofthechaptersinthisvolumefocusprimarilyonincomeorconsumptionpoverty,definedeitheraschangesinpovertyincidenceorincome/ consumptiongrowthofthebottomoneortwoquintilesofthedistribution. Specifically,thisappliestoShaffer’soverviewchapter(Chapter2),Sen’scrosscountryanalysis(Chapter4),Liuetal.’sselectionofcasesofIGdrawingon theDollarandKraay(2002)andDollaretal.(2016)databases(Chapter5), Diwakaretal.’sstate-levelanalysisofIndia(Chapter7),Kimetal.’schapter onIndonesia(Chapter10),andDauda’schapteronNigeria(Chapter11). Teichman’schapteronMexico(Chapter3)incorporatesarangeofwellbeingmeasures,includingincomeorconsumptionpovertyandvarious socialindicators.Chapterswhichrelyprimarilyonotherwell-being measuresincludethosebyWeiandZhang(Chapter6),whofocusonhappinessinChina,andThampi(Chapter8),whoexaminesnutritioninIndia.
TheethnographicstudybyArseletal.(Chapter9)extendstheanalysisof harmtoincludelifesatisfaction,health,andabilitytoparticipateindecisions concerningone’senvironment,drawingattentiontosuchissuesasdrug abuse,prostitution,criminality,degradationofthenaturalresourcebase, anddisempowermentduetopoliticalmarginalization.
Growth
Despitethefactthatallmeasuresofgrowtharebasedonincomeorconsumption,therearesignificantconceptualandmethodologicaldifferencesbetween themainindicatorsfoundintheliterature.Thecoredifferenceliesbetween nationalaccounts-basedstatistics,suchasgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),gross nationalincome(GNI),or finalconsumptionexpenditure(FCE)ontheone hand,andhousehold-basedestimates,suchassurveymeanincomeorconsumptionexpenditure,ontheother.Thisdistinctionmatters,becausethere canbelargedifferencesinlevelsandgrowthbetweennationalaccountsand householdsurvey-basedmeasures(Ravallion2003;Deaton2010).5
Giventhatmostofourcorepovertymeasuresarebasedonincomeor consumptiondatafromhouseholdsurveys,andinlightofthesedifferences, whyusegrowthstatisticsbasedonnationalaccountsdataatall?Inthe contextoftheanalysisofIG,whichattemptstoexplainwhythebenefitsof growthdonotreachthepoor,thereareatleastthreereasons.
First,thereareotherclaimantstoGDPorGNIthanthehouseholdsector (Arndtetal.2016).Forexample,IGmayresultifalargepartofthegrowthin domesticproductisusedtofuelinvestmentbytheprivatesector,orifpublic sectorspendingdoesnottranslateintorisingexpendituresatthehousehold level.Thesamepointappliesifgrowthofnationalincomeleadstoprofit repatriationbymultinational firms,orifitischannelledtonon-profitinstitutionsservinghouseholdswhichtypicallyarenotdistinguishedfromhouseholdswhencalculatingFCEinthenationalaccountsincountriesofthe GlobalSouth(Ravallion2003;Kamanouetal.2005).
Second,thereareexpenditureitemsthatarepotentiallyrelevanttoIGwhich areincludedinthenationalaccountsyetoftenomittedfromhouseholdsurveys. Themostimportantconcernstheimputedvalueofowner-occupieddwellings whosebenefits,andlikelyrateofgrowth,accruedisproportionatelytothe non-poor.Apparently,aroundone-halfofthediscrepancybetweenlevelsof householdandnationalaccountsconsumptionexpenditureinIndiaisdueto thisitemalone(Deaton2001).Anotheromissionoflessconsequenceisthevalue of financialintermediationservicesindirectlymeasured(Kamanouetal.2005).
A finalreasontoincludenationalaccountsdata,isthathouseholdsurveys underrepresentthetopofthedistributioneitherduetosampling,response refusals,orunderreporting,whichwillunderstate ‘true’ levelsofincomeor
consumptionandmayunderstategrowthifratesarehigheramongthose excluded(Ravallion2003;Deaton2010).Forallthreereasons,growthmeasuresbasedonhouseholdsurveydataarelikelytounderestimatethetrue extentofnationalincomeorconsumptiongrowth.
Itshouldberecognized,however,thatnationalaccountandhousehold surveydatamaydiffersimplybecauseofdifferentestimationtechniques, measurementerror,ortimeperiods.Forexample,FCEisoftenestimatedasa residualfromthevalueofdomesticproductionaftersubtractingsuchitemsas governmentspending,investment,andintermediateconsumption,whichis verydifferentfromhousehold-basedmeasureswhichsumconsumption expenditureaggregatesacrosshouseholds(Deaton2010).Further,growth ratesofFCEmayreflecttheformalizationofhomeproduction,whichis typicallybettercapturedinhouseholdsurveys,ratherthanrealchangesin consumption(Ravallion2003;Deaton2010).Insuchcases,discrepancies betweennationalaccountandhouseholdsurveydatadonotreflect ‘real’ differencesontheground.
Wesimplynotetheseissueshere,anddonotpursuethemfurtherinthe volume.MostofthechaptersfocusonGDPgrowth,includingthecontributionsbyTeichman,Sen,Thampi,andKimetal.Liuetal.’schapterreliessolely onsurveymeangrowthfortheselectionofcases,whilethechaptersbyShaffer, Diwakaretel.,andDaudacomparegrowthestimatesbasedonthetwosources.
TimeFrame
Whatistheappropriatetimeframetousewhendeterminingifagrowth episodeisimmiserizing?Istherereasontoexpectalagbetweengrowthand somemeasureofwell-being,whichwillnotbeadequatelycapturedifthetime frameistooshort?Theanswerdependsbothonthenatureofthegrowth processandonandnatureofthewell-beingmeasure.Insomecases,one wouldexpectgrowthtocloselytrackincomeorconsumptionpovertyreduction,aswhengrowthisbasedonsmallholderagriculture,forexample.In othercases,theremightbealag,ifgrowthisgeneratedbyprocessesofnatural resourceextraction,withlimiteddirectemploymenteffects,forexample.The samepointappliesifthewell-beingmeasuredoesnotchangerapidly,suchas stunting.Asimilarproblemariseswhenusingincomeorconsumptionpovertyincidence,ifpoorhouseholdsareclusteredatadistancefromthepoverty line,suchthatimprovementsdonottranslateintopovertyreductionevenif theirincomeorconsumptionrises.6
Inlightoftheseconsiderations,thereisnogeneralanswertothequestionof theappropriatetimeframe.Muchoftheliteratureisdata-drivenanddepends onthearbitrarytimingofhouseholdsurveyswhichprovidedataonpoverty, asintheDollaretal.(2016)databaseoftime-countryspells.Thechaptersby
