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HowChinaisReshapingtheGlobalEconomy
HowChinaisReshaping theGlobalEconomy
DevelopmentImpactsinAfrica andLatinAmerica
RhysJenkins
GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom
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Tomygrandchildren, Tom,Mat,andKit, whowillexperiencetheconsequencesofChina’s re-emergenceasaglobaleconomicpower.
PrefaceandAcknowledgements
I firstbecameinterestedintheimpactofChina’seconomicgrowthonthe GlobalSouthin2004,whenIwascommissionedbytheUKDepartmentfor InternationalDevelopment(DFID)toprepareapaperforaconferencein BeijingatthelaunchoftheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank’sstudyof theopportunitiesandchallengesthattheemergenceofChinapresentedfor LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(Devlinet.al.,2006).Thiswasthe firsttime thatIhadvisitedChina,anditbeganaperiodwhenmyresearchwasmainly focussedonquestionsposedbytheriseofChina.
Muchofmypreviousworkhadbeenabouttheimpactofglobalization, startingwithstudiesoftransnationalcorporationsandtradeliberalization inLatinAmericaandthenextendingtoworkontheenvironmentaland socioeconomicimplicationsofglobalizationinLatinAmerica,SouthAfrica, Vietnam,andMalaysia.
Bythemid-2000s,itwasalreadybecomingclearthatthedramaticgrowthof Chinaanditsre-incorporationintotheglobaleconomywasakeyfeatureof globalizationinthetwenty-firstcentury.TheaccessionofChinatotheWorld TradeOrganizationin2001sparkedanumberofstudieslookingatthelikely impactsthatthiswouldhaveinboththeNorthandtheSouth.
MyowninterestdevelopedthroughfurtherstudiesforDFIDontheimpacts ofChinaonAsia,Africa,andLatinAmerica,carriedoutwithmycolleague ChrisEdwards.Iwasalsoinvolvedinanetworkofscholarswhostudiedthe impactsoftheAsianDrivers(ChinaandIndia)ontheGlobalSouthand publishedspecialissuesofthe IDSBulletin and WorldDevelopment onthis theme(Kaplinsky,ed.,2006:KaplinskyandMessner,eds.,2008).
SomeofmysubsequentresearchontheimpactofChinaonLatinAmerica, onBrazil,andonSouthAfricawasfundedbytheUKEconomicandSocial ResearchCouncil(ESRC),1 andthisallowedmetogointogreaterdepthonthe impactsofChinaonspecificcountries.Iworkedwithanumberofcolleagues ontheseprojectsandIamparticularlygratefulfortheircontributions.They includeJonathanBarton,EnriqueDussel-Peters,AndrésLopez,Alexandrede
1 ESRCgrantnumbersRES-165-25-005;RES-238-25-0006;andES/1035125/1.
FreitasBarbosa,andLawrenceEdwards.Iwasalsofortunatetoreceivea LeverhulmeResearchFellowshipthatenabledmetostartworkonthisbook.
AsIdelveddeeperintotheimpactsofChinaonLatinAmericaandthe Caribbean(LAC)andSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA),IbecameawarethatIneeded toobtainabetterunderstandingofthedriversofChinesegrowthandglobal projection.Thus,althoughthebookwasoriginallyplannedasastudyofthe impactsofChinaonthetworegions,Irealizedthatitneededtobeginwith developmentsinChina.AlthoughIdonotclaimtobeanexpertonChinese economicdevelopment,IhopethatPartIofthebookwillprovidethereader withsufficientbackgroundtomakesenseoftheimpactsonLACandSSA.
IamveryconsciousthatonelimitationIfacedinwritingthebookisthat IdonotreadChinese.Thismayhaveledtotheunderrepresentationofsome pointsofview.IhavetriedwhereverpossibletorefertoofficialChinese documentsthatareavailableinEnglishandtotheworkofChineseacademics thathasbeentranslatedintoorpublishedinEnglish.However,thisprobably doesnotdofulljusticetotherangeofChineseviewsonLACandSSA,and itmaymeanthatChineseperspectivesthataremorecriticalarenotfully represented.Ontheotherhand,Ihavedrawnonarangeofsourcesfromboth LACandSSAtoensurecoverageofviewsfromwithinbothregions.
Iwouldliketothankcolleagueswhohavereadandcommentedonpartsof thisbookfortheirinvaluablefeedback.TheyincludeEnriqueDussel-Peters, ChrisEdwards,RaphieKaplinsky,BereketKebede,DiegoSánchez-Ancochea, andJohnThoburn.MichaelAbou-Sleimanprovidedresearchassistancein puttingtogetherthedatabaseandcarryingouttheeconometricanalysisthat isreportedinthebook.Finally,SallySutton’seditingworkonthemanuscript helpedputitintoacoherentandpresentableform.Iacknowledgealltheir contributions,whileacceptingultimateresponsibilityforthecontentsand anyerrorsthatremain.
ListofFigures xi
ListofTables xiii
ListofBoxes xv
ListofAcronyms xvii
Introduction:China’sRe-emergenceasaGlobalEconomicPower1
PartI.ChinaandtheGlobalEconomy
1.TheTransformationoftheChineseEconomy13
2.TheWorkshopoftheWorld33
3.AVoraciousDragon?ChinaandGlobalCommodityMarkets52
4.GoingGlobal:ChineseFirmsAbroad72
5.TheWorld’sWallet?China’sRoleinGlobalFinance92
PartII.ChinaandSub-SaharanAfrica
6.China’sEconomicExpansioninSub-SaharanAfrica113
7.China’sEconomicImpactsonSub-SaharanAfrica149
8.Social,Political,andEnvironmentalImpacts inSub-SaharanAfrica183
PartIII.ChinaandLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
9.China’sEconomicExpansioninLatinAmericaand theCaribbean223
10.China’sEconomicImpactsonLatinAmerica254
11.Social,Political,andEnvironmentalImpactsinLatinAmerica284
12.AComparativePerspectiveonChina’sinvolvement inSub-SaharanAfricaandLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean321 13.Conclusion337
ListofFigures
2.1.China’sShareofWorldManufacturingValueAdded(MVA)and WorldManufacturedExports,1980–2014(%)33
2.2.ShareofChina’sManufacturedExportsbyTechnologyLevel,1995–201445
3.1.Indexofcommoditypricesinconstant2010US$(2010=100)57
4.1.Chinesestockandannual flowofoutwardFDIandturnoverof contractedprojectsfulfilled,1982–2014(US$billion)74
4.2.Geographicaldistributionofvalueofcompletedprojects,1998–2000 and2013–1577
5.1.China’sforeignassets,2004–15(US$billion)95
6.1.China’stradewithSSA,1995–2015(US$billion)115
6.2.SharesofdifferentproductsinimportsfromSSA,2013–15116
6.3.Chineseoutwardforeigndirectinvestment(OFDI)stocksand flows inSSA,2003–15(US$million)118
6.4.ChinesecontractsinSSA,2003–15(US$million)120
6.5.SectoraldistributionofthevalueofChineseprojectcontractsinSSA, 2005–16121
6.6.ChineseOfficialFinancialFlowstoSSA,2000–14(US$million)123
7.1.ShareofChineseimportsinapparentconsumptionofmanufactured goodsinselectedcountries,2000–10161
9.1.China’stradewithLatinAmerica,1995–2015(US$billion)225
9.2.SharesofdifferentproductsinimportsfromLatinAmerica,2013–15226
9.3.ChineseOFDIinLatinAmerica,2003–15(US$million)228
9.4.SectoraldistributionofthevalueofChineseprojectcontractsinLAC, 2005–16231
9.5.ChineseloansandprojectsinLatinAmerica,2005–15(US$million)231
10.1.China’sshareinapparentconsumptionofmanufacturesinselected LatinAmericancountries,2000–13262
11.1.CoincidenceofvotingbetweenLatinAmerica,China, andtheUS,2000–15299
ListofTables
0.1.ExamplesofpossibleimpactsofChinaondevelopingcountries6
3.1.China’ssignificanceincommoditymarkets,2000,2015(%)55
6.1.DeterminantsofSino-SSAeconomicrelations143
A6.1.SignificanceofeconomicrelationswithChinabycountryinSSA148
8.1.Percentageofexportsofwoodproductsathighriskofillegality, bydestination,2013211
A8.1.EffectsofvoiceandaccountabilityonSino-SSAeconomicrelations217
A8.2.EffectsofcontrolofcorruptiononSino-SSAeconomicrelations217
A8.3.EffectofpoliticalstabilityonSino-SSAeconomicrelations218
A8.4.ImpactofeconomicrelationswithChinaongovernance219
9.1.KeyactorsinSino-LACeconomicrelations234
9.2.DeterminantsofSino-LACeconomicrelations,2002–15248
A9.1.SignificanceofeconomicrelationswithChinabycountryinLAC253
10.1.IndustrieswiththehighestlevelofChineseimportpenetration263
11.1.EstimatedimpactoftradewithChinaonmanufacturing employmentinLatinAmerica,1995–2011286
11.2.SharesofLatinAmericantradewithChinaandtheUS,2015(%)298
A11.1.DeterminantsofvotingcoincidencewithChina318
12.1.SummaryofChina’smajorimpactsonSSAandLAC331
ListofBoxes
4.1.ProblemsinmeasuringChina’sOFDI73
6.1.TheAngolanmodel124
6.2.TheSicominesagreementinDRC125
7.1.China’simpactonSSAexportsoftextilesandgarments162
8.1.DebateonlabourconditionsinChinesecoppermininginZambia190
9.1.ArgentinaandChina:thesoybeanconnection240
ListofAcronyms
ABCAgriculturalBankofChina
ADBAgriculturalDevelopmentBank(China)
AGOAAfricanGrowthOpportunitiesAct
AIIBAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank
ATCAgreementonTextilesandClothing
BOCBankofChina
CADFChina-AfricaDevelopmentFund
CARIChinaAfricaResearchInitiative
CBRCChineseBankingRegulatoryCommission
CCBChinaConstructionBank
CCICEDChinaCouncilforInternationalCooperationonEnvironmentand Development
CDBChinaDevelopmentBank
CGGCChinaGezhoubaGroupCompany
CICChinaInvestmentCorporation
CNMCChinaNonferrousMetalMiningCorporation
CNOOCChinaNationalOffshoreOilCorporation
CNPCChinaNationalPetroleumCompany
COFCOChinaNationalCereals,OilsandFoodstuffsCorporation
CRECChinaRailwayEngineeringCorporation
CSRCorporatesocialresponsibility
DACDevelopmentAssistanceCommittee
DFADepartmentofForeignAssistance
DPPDemocraticProgressiveParty
DRCDemocraticRepublicofCongo
EITIExtractiveindustriesTransparencyInitiative
EIZEasternIndustrialZone
EPRDFEthiopianPeople’sRevolutionaryDemocraticFront
ETDZEconomicTradeandDevelopmentZone
EximBankExport-ImportBankofChina
FDIForeigndirectinvestment
FOCACForumforChinaAfricaCooperation
FSCForestStewardshipCouncil
FTAFreetradeagreement
GDPGrossdomesticproduct
GHGGreenhousegas
GMGeneticallymodified
GMOGeneticallymodifiedorganism
GPNGlobalproductionnetwork
GVCGlobalvaluechain
HRWHumanRightsWatch
IADBInterAmericanDevelopmentBank
ICBCIndustrial&CommercialBankofChina
IEAInternationalEnergyAgency
ILOInternationalLabourOrganization
IMFInternationalMonetaryFund
ISIImportsubstitutingindustrialization
ISICInternationalStandardIndustrialClassification
JSCBJoint-stockcommercialbank
LACLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
M&AMergersandacquisitions
MEPMinistryofEnvironmentalProtection
MFAMultiFibreArrangement
MOFMinistryofFinance
MOFAMinistryofForeignAffairs
MOFCOMMinistryofForeignCommerce
NDBNewDevelopmentBank
NDRCNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionofthePeople’sRepublic ofChina
NGONon-governmentalorganization
NSSFNationalSocialSecurityFund
OBOROneBelt,OneRoad
ODAOfficialdevelopmentassistance
OECDOrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment
OFDIOutwarddirectforeigninvestment
xviii
OOFOtherOfficialFinance
OPECOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries
PRCPeople’sRepublicofChina
R&DResearchanddevelopment
REERRealeffectiveexchangerate
RMBRENMINBI
RTRSRoundTableonResponsibleSoy
SAFEStateAdministrationofForeignExchange
SASACState-ownedAssetSupervisionandAdministrationCommission
SEPAStateEnvironmentalProtectionAdministration
SEZsSpecialEconomicZones
SICSAFEInvestmentCompany
SINOSUREChinaExportandCreditInsuranceCorporation
SOEState-ownedenterprises
SPRStrategicPetroleumReserve
SSASub-SaharanAfrica
SSISinopeSonangolInternational
SWFSovereignwealthfund
TNCTransnationalcorporation
TVETownshipandvillageenterprise
UNUnitedNations
UNCTADUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment
UNIDOUnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization
VATValueaddedtax
WGIWorldGovernanceindicator
WTOWorldTradeOrganization
Introduction
China
’sRe-emergenceasaGlobal
EconomicPower
There-emergenceofChinaasamajoreconomicpowerhasbeenacentral featureofglobalizationoverthepastfourdecades.Itconstitutesasignificant shiftintheworldeconomy’scentreofgravitytoEastAsia.Intermsofgross domesticproduct,Chinaisnowtheworld’ssecond-largesteconomyafterthe US,whichitispredictedtoovertakeby2026(EIU,2015,p.3).Itistheworld’s leadingexporter,andasignificantdestinationfor,andincreasinglyasource of,foreigndirectinvestment(FDI).Ithasbecomeamajorcentreofglobal industrialaccumulation,accountingforalmostaquarterofworldwidemanufacturingoutput.Itisthemostimportantconsumerofmanymineralsand industrialrawmaterials,andisanincreasinglysignificantuserofenergyand contributortocarbonemissions.Ithastheworld’slargestforeignexchange reservesandplaysagrowingroleininternational financialmarkets.Allthis hasprofoundeffectsoncountriesaroundtheworld.
TheeconomicriseofChinacanbelookedatthroughtwolenses.The first, lookingfromtheoutsidein,emphasizeschangesintheglobalcapitalisteconomythathaveledtothegeographicalreconfigurationoftheworldeconomy. Thesecondapproach,lookingfromtheinsideout,emphasizestheinternal changesinChinawhichhaveledtoitseconomictransformationsincethe introductionofeconomicreformsattheendofthe1970s(Hung,2008).
The ‘outside-in’ approachseesChina’seconomicgrowthasprimarilyexternallydriven,reflectinganewphaseofglobalization.Inthisview,capitalist accumulationfacedincreasingbarriersinthedevelopedworldinthe1970sas aresultoffallingprofitability,risingwages,andanincreasinglymobilized workingclass(Hart-LandsbergandBurkett,2007;Harvey,2005).Thisledto theabandonmentoftheKeynesianpoliciesofthepost-warconsensusand theadoptionofneo-liberalism,particularlyunderReaganintheUSand
ThatcherintheUK.Oneofthestrategiesusedbycapitaltorestoreprofitabilitywastomovelabour-intensiveproductionoffshoreinordertoreduce productioncosts.Thishadstartedtohappeninthe1960s,butitaccelerated inthe1980s.
InEastAsiathe ‘flyinggeese’ patterninwhichcertainJapaneseindustries relocatedtothenewlyindustrializingcountries,SouthKorea,Taiwan,Hong Kong,andSingapore,had,bythe1980s,developedtoapointwherethose industrieswerenowlookingtorelocateoncemoreinthefaceofrisingwages. China’seconomicreformscameatanopportunemoment,andcompanies relocatedinitiallytothespecialeconomiczonesthatwerecreatedafter1978, andthentootherpartsofthecountry.
Incontrast,the ‘inside-out’ approachtakesasitsstartingpointthechanges thatoccurredinChinaafterthedeathofMaoZedongin1976.Thereforms toeconomicpolicystartedbyDengXiaopingin1978/9unleasheda dynamicprocessofgrowthandincreasedcompetivenessinChinaasit movedfromacentrallyplannedtoamarketeconomy(seeChapter1). HighlevelsofinvestmentandarapidincreaseinexportsledtoChina’s risingshareofworldoutputandtrade.RapidgrowthinChinamadeitan attractivedestinationforforeigninvestors.Itseventualaccessiontothe WorldTradeOrganizationin2001gaveafurtherboosttoexportgrowth, whichcontributedtotheaccumulationofforeignexchangereserves.As Chinese firmsaccumulatedtechnologicalcapabilities,theybegantoinvest andcarryoutconstructionprojectsabroad.Chinaalsobecameamore importantplayeringlobal financialmarketsasaresultoflendingbyChinese banks,particularlythepolicybanks,andinvestmentbyitssovereign wealthfunds.
Bothoftheselensesprovideimportantinsightsintothegrowingglobal significanceofChina.Thepost-1980phaseofglobalizationsetthecontext withinwhichtheChineseeconomywasabletogrowsorapidly.Afocuson shiftsinglobalpatternsofaccumulationandtheorganizationofglobalproductionnetworksisareminderthattheChineseeconomyispartofalarger whole.ThisunderlinesthefactthatChina’seconomicgrowthinvolvesa rangeofChineseandinternationalactors,andhasdependedcruciallyon accesstoforeignmarketsandforeigninputs,capital,andtechnology.
WithoutradicalchangeswithinChina,however,itisunlikelythatthese changesintheglobaleconomywouldhavebeenaccompaniedbysuchspectaculareconomicgrowth.Internalchangesalsodeterminethecharacteristics ofChina’s ‘socialistmarketeconomy’,whichhaveimplicationsbothdomesticallyandinternationally.GlobalizationsetthecontextwithinwhichChina wasabletogrow,butthedriversofeconomicgrowthwereinternaltoChina. Itis,therefore,imperativetoanalyzeatsomelengththekeychangesand stagesofeconomicreformanddevelopment(seeChapter1).
0.1China,Sub-SaharanAfrica,andLatinAmerica andtheCaribbean
BothSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA)andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(LAC) haveseentheinfluenceofChinaincreasesignificantlysincetheturnofthe century.ChinaisnowSSA’smostimportanttradingpartner,accountingfor morethana fifthoftheregion’stotaltrade.Chineseconstructioncompanies arebuildingroads,railways,dams,andstadiums,andotherpublicbuildings acrosstheregion.Chinahasalsobecomeanincreasinglyimportantsourceof FDI,loans,andofficialdevelopmentassistance(ODA)toSSA.TheForumon China-AfricaCooperation,atwhichmajorannouncementsaremadeconcerningChina’splansforincreasedtradewithand financetoAfrica,meetsevery threeyears.
ChinaisLAC’ssecond-largesttradingpartneraftertheUS,andinseveral countries,includingBrazil,Chile,andPeru,ithasovertakentheUS.Chinahas lentmorethan$100billiontocountriesintheregionsince2007andhas madesignificantinvestmentsinoilandmining.Itisalsoinvolvedinmajor infrastructureprojectsintheregion,mostnotablytheplannedcanalin NicaragualinkingtheCaribbeanandthePacific.In2015itformalizedits relationswiththeregionwiththeestablishmentofthe ForumofChina and CommunityofLatinAmericanandCaribbeanStates.
China’sgrowinginvolvementinSSAhasbeenasourceofintensedebate (Mhandaraetal.,2013).CriticsofChina’srelationswiththeregionhave portrayeditasanewcolonialpowerextractingnaturalresourceswithlittle regardforthelocalpopulationortheenvironmentwhilesupportingauthoritarianregimesandintensifyingcorruption.AsLamidoSanusi(2013),former governoroftheNigerianCentralBank,wroteinthe FinancialTimes:
Chinatakesourprimarygoodsandsellsusmanufacturedones.Thiswasalsothe essenceofcolonialism.TheBritishwenttoAfricaandIndiatosecurerawmaterials andmarkets.Africaisnowwillinglyopeningitselfuptoanewformofimperialism.
Thesecriticshavebeenaccusedbytheiropponentsof ‘China-bashing’ andof followingaWesternagendawhichseesChinaasathreattoitsinterestsin Africa(HironoandSuzuki,2014).Theyarguethatonthecontrary,theSinoSSArelationshipisquitedifferentfromthecolonialandneo-colonialrelations thatexistedwiththeWest.ChinaisseenasprovidingSSAwithcapitaland technology,aswellaswithaboomingmarketforitsexports,leadingtothe revivalofeconomicgrowthintheregioninthetwenty-firstcentury.Zambian economistDambisaMoyo(2012a)writes:
China’srushforresourceshasspawnedmuch-neededtradeandinvestmentand createdalargemarketforAfricanexports ahugebenefitforacontinentseeking rapideconomicgrowth.
China’scommitmenttonon-interventionintheinternalaffairsofother countriesanditsprovisionofaidwithoutanystringsattached,incontrast totheuseofeconomicandpoliticalconditionalitybyWesterndonorsandthe international financialinstitutions,isalsoemphasized(WangandOzanne, 2010).
InthecaseofLAC,whilethedebatehasbeenlessheateditis,nevertheless, possibletodiscernsignificantlydivergentviews(Jenkins,2010a).Acommon criticismisthatChina’seconomicinvolvementhasledtotherecommodificationoftheregion’sexportsanddeindustrialization,thusreproducing thecentre-peripheryrelationsthathistoricallycharacterizedtradewith NorthAmericaandEurope(GallagherandPorzecanski,2010;Rosalesand Kuwayama,2012,Ch.II).Therearealsoconcerns,particularlyonthepolitical rightintheUS,thatChina’sgrowingpresenceisthreateningUSinfluenceand encouragingleft-winggovernmentsintheregion(GrudgingsandGardner, 2011).AsinSSA,criticsofChina’sinvolvementhavebeenaccusedof SinophobiaandofpropagatingmythsaboutSino-LACrelations(Harrisand Arias,2016).
ThealternativeviewofSino-LACrelationsemphasizesSouth-Southcooperation,economiccomplementarity,andmutualbenefits.Thischaracterizes officialpronouncements.suchastheChinesegovernment’spolicypaperson theregion(PRC,2008;2016).Harris(2015)describesChinainitsrelationswith LACcountriesas ‘apeacefulpandabear’,whichhecontrastswiththecritics’ viewof ‘aroaringdragon’.Morespecifically,Chinaisseenashavingmadean importantcontributiontotheregion’srapidrecoveryfromthe2008global financialcrisisbycomingtotherescueofLACexports(ECLAC,2010,p.10).
InpracticemuchoftheacademicliteratureontheimpactsofChinaonSSA andLACrecognizesthattherealityismorecomplexandvariedthaneitherof theseextremes.Therearebothpositiveandnegativeimpactsofthegrowing Chineseinvolvementinthetworegions.InLatinAmerica,particularly,some countriesareidentifiedas ‘winners’,andothersas ‘losers’,asaresultofChina’s growth(FunakushiandLoser,2005;Gonzalez,2008).InSSA,too,therehasbeen somerecognitionthatdifferentcountrieshavebeenaffecteddifferently (Sindzingre,2011;Zafar,2007).However,muchoftheliteraturesharescertain basicassumptionscharacteristicofboththecriticsandthedefendersof China’srole.
Althoughthisdebateishighlypolarized,bothsidesarestatecentricintheir focusontheactionsoftheChinesestate.1 TheyseeChinaasamonolithic
1 AsAlisonAyers(2013)notesinheranalysisofthe ‘newscrambleforAfrica’ , ‘[t]heprivileging ofnation-statesasthefundamentalunitsofanalysisischaracteristicnotonlyofrealistandliberal perspectivesinIR/IPE[internationalrelations/internationalpoliticaleconomy]butalsovarious criticalperspectivesthathavesoughttounderstandtheriseoftheBRICs[Brazil,Russia,India, ChinaandSouthAfrica],especiallyChina’ (p.236).
actorwhichpursuesitsinterestsglobally.Theseinterestsareseenaseither benign,asportrayedinChinesediscourseon ‘peacefuldevelopment’ andthe ‘harmoniousworld’,orasachallengetotheexistingworldorderandaneffort toexpandChina’sglobalpower,asseenbythosewhoemphasizethe ‘China Threat’.BothsidesalsofocusonthedirectbilateralrelationsbetweenChina andSSAorLACcountries,neglectingtheindirectimpactsofChina’sincreased significanceintheglobaleconomy.Thereisalsoatendencyinmuchofthe debateonChina’simpacttofocusexclusivelyonChineseinterestsand actions,andtoseeSSAandLACassimplythebeneficiariesorvictimsof China’sinternationalexpansion,ignoringtheroleoflocalactorswithinthe tworegions.
Inevitably,giventhepoliticizednatureofthemediacoverageofChina’s impactsonSSAandLAC,thereisatendencytopresentthingsinpolarized terms,emphasizingeitherthenegativesideorwin-winscenarios.Thereisalso oftenatendencyonbothsidesofthedebatetoexaggeratetheextentof China’sinfluenceinthetworegions.ThechallengeinanalysingChina’s growingsignificanceforSSAandLACistoprovideanaccuratepictureofthe extentofitsinfluenceandtodevelopacriticalaccountofitsimpactwhile avoidingthe ‘China-bashing’ thatoftencharacterizesmediareports.
Thisbooktriestoachievethisbyavoidingastate-centricapproachto China’srelationswithSSAandLAC.ItrejectsthemonolithicviewofChina asaunitaryactorpursuingaclearlydefinedcoherentstrategyinitsapproach tothetworegions.AlthoughtheChinesegovernmenthasissuedtwopolicy papersonitsrelationswitheachregiontheseareverybroadstatements ratherthancoherentplanswhichthestateimplements(PRC,2006,2008, 2015,2016).Chineseinvolvementisdrivenbytheinterestsofanumberof actorsincludingdifferentministries,provincialandmunicipalgovernments, state-ownedenterprises(SOEs),policyandcommercialbanks,andprivate companies.
InanalyzingthesignificanceofChinaforSSAandLAC,thisstudyrecognizesthatChina’sgrowthhasbothdirectimpactsasaresultofthecountries’ bilateralrelations,andindirectonesarisingfromChina’seffectsonglobal marketsandprices.Thisimpliesthateventhosecountrieswhosebilateral relationswithChinaarelimitedcan,nevertheless,beaffectedeitherpositively ornegativelybytheglobaleconomicimpactsofChina.2 Whiledetailingthe bilateraleconomicrelationsbetweenChinaandSSAandChinaandLAC,this
2 AsimilarpointcouldbemadeinrelationtoChina’senvironmentalimpactonothercountries, whichcanarisebothdirectlyfrom,forexample,thepollutingactivitiesofChinese firmsinahost country,butalsoindirectlyasaresultofthecontributionofChinesegreenhousegas(GHG) emissionstoglobalwarming.
