TheRailpolitik:LeadershipandAgencyinSinoAfricanInfrastructureDevelopment1stEdition YuanWang
https://ebookmass.com/product/the-railpolitik-leadershipand-agency-in-sino-african-infrastructure-development-1stedition-yuan-wang/
Instant digital products (PDF, ePub, MOBI) ready for you
Download now and discover formats that fit your needs...
The African Union and African Agency in International Politics Tshepo Gwatiwa
https://ebookmass.com/product/the-african-union-and-african-agency-ininternational-politics-tshepo-gwatiwa/ ebookmass.com
Supporting Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development in Africa - Volume II: Transforming Infrastructure Development 1st Edition Elena G. Popkova
https://ebookmass.com/product/supporting-inclusive-growth-andsustainable-development-in-africa-volume-ii-transforminginfrastructure-development-1st-edition-elena-g-popkova/ ebookmass.com
African Heritage Challenges: Communities and Sustainable Development 1st Edition Britt Baillie
https://ebookmass.com/product/african-heritage-challenges-communitiesand-sustainable-development-1st-edition-britt-baillie/ ebookmass.com
Clinical Decision Support: The Road to Broad Adoption –Ebook PDF Version
https://ebookmass.com/product/clinical-decision-support-the-road-tobroad-adoption-ebook-pdf-version/ ebookmass.com
The Siberian World John P. Ziker
https://ebookmass.com/product/the-siberian-world-john-p-ziker/
ebookmass.com
Practice Makes Perfect: Basic Japanese, Premium 3rd Edition Eriko Sato
https://ebookmass.com/product/practice-makes-perfect-basic-japanesepremium-3rd-edition-eriko-sato/
ebookmass.com
Los últimos días de John Brown Henry David Thoreau
https://ebookmass.com/product/los-ultimos-dias-de-john-brown-henrydavid-thoreau/
ebookmass.com
Fitness for Work: The Medical Aspects Hobson
https://ebookmass.com/product/fitness-for-work-the-medical-aspectshobson/
ebookmass.com
Engineering Fundamentals: An Introduction to Engineering, 6th Edition Moaveni Saeed
https://ebookmass.com/product/engineering-fundamentals-anintroduction-to-engineering-6th-edition-moaveni-saeed/
ebookmass.com
Post-Crash Economics and the Covid Emergency in the Global Economy: Interdisciplinary Issues in Teaching and Research
Abdullah Yusuf
https://ebookmass.com/product/post-crash-economics-and-the-covidemergency-in-the-global-economy-interdisciplinary-issues-in-teachingand-research-abdullah-yusuf/
ebookmass.com
OXFORDSTUDIESINAFRICANPOLITICS ANDINTERNATIONALRELATIONS
GeneralEditors
NICCHEESEMAN,PEACEMEDIE,AND RICARDOSOARESDEOLIVEIRA
OxfordStudiesinAfricanPoliticsandInternationalRelations isaseriesforscholars andstudentsworkingonAfricanpoliticsandInternationalRelationsandrelated disciplines.VolumesconcentrateoncontemporarydevelopmentsinAfricanpoliticalscience,politicaleconomy,andInternationalRelations,suchaselectoralpolitics, democratization,decentralization,genderandpoliticalrepresentation,thepolitical impactofnaturalresources,thedynamicsandconsequencesofconflict,comparative politicalthought,andthenatureofthecontinent’sengagementwiththeEastandWest. Comparativeandmixedmethodsworkisparticularlyencouraged.Casestudiesare welcomedbutshoulddemonstratethebroadertheoreticalandempiricalimplications ofthestudyanditswiderrelevancetocontemporarydebates.Thefocusoftheseriesis onsub-SaharanAfrica,althoughproposalsthatexplainhowtheregionengageswith NorthAfricaandotherpartsoftheworldareofinterest.
TheRailpolitik
LeadershipandAgencyinSino-African InfrastructureDevelopment
YUANWANG
GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom
OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries
©YuanWang2023
Themoralrightsoftheauthorhavebeenasserted Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin retrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove
Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer
PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData
Dataavailable
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2023942196
ISBN9780198873037
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198873037.001.0001
Printedandboundby
CPIGroup(UK)Ltd,Croydon,CR04YY
LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork.
1.Therailpolitik:AgencyofAfricanleadersin
2.3Constructionandoperation:exercisingpoliticalchampionship
2.3.1Completiontimelineandmissiongeneration
2.3.2Bypassingexistinginstitutions
2.3.3Co-optation
2.3.4ChineseagencyduringStandardGaugeRailway implementation
2.4StandardGaugeRailwayPhase2A:diminishedchampionship
2.5Discussion:societalcaptureversusstateautonomyindemocracy
2.6Conclusion
3.Revolutionarydemocracy,developmentalstate,andcapitalism
3.1Fromrevolutionarydemocracytodevelopmentalstate
3.1.1Revolutionarydemocracy
3.1.3Meles’personalisticrule
3.2Initiation:politicalchampionshipunderMeles
3.2.1Meles’championship
3.2.2Chineseinterventionduringinitiation
3.3Construction:diminishingpoliticalchampionshipunder HailemariamDesalegn
3.3.1‘Legacymaintainer’to‘Mengistyelem!’(‘Thereisno government!’)
3.3.2Strongcommitmentwithdiminishedleadership authority
3.4PoliticalcrisisandAbiy:aforgottenrailway
3.4.1Politicalcrisis,democraticreform,andtheTigraywar
3.4.2DeclinedcommitmenttotheAddisAbaba–Djibouti railway
3.5.1Chineseinterventionduringconstruction
3.5.2‘Politicalkidnap’?
3.6HawassaIndustrialPark:politicalchampionshipduring thepoliticalcrisis
4.Struggletoreconstruct:Arailwayofneglect
4.1Hyper-presidentialismandthe‘parallelstate’
4.1.1Theparty-statewithhyper-presidentialism
4.1.2The‘parallelstate’
4.2Nationalreconstructionandrailwayinitiation
4.2.1Nationalreconstructionandthe‘parallelsystem’of ChinainAngola
4.2.2InitiationoftheBenguelarailwayrehabilitation
4.3Construction:DosSantos’ceremonialattention
4.3.1Ceremonialpresidentialcommitment
4.3.2Arelativelyweakbureaucracy
4.3.3MinimalChineseagency
4.4Strugglingtooperate
5.Bigbrotherandsmallboy?Africanexecutive extraversionunderSino-Africanpowerasymmetry
5.1Sino-Africanstructuralasymmetry
5.1.1Dependencytheoryandneo-dependencyin Sino-Africandebates
5.1.2Critiqueofdependencytheory
5.1.3Astrategyofextraversion
5.3Chinese-sponsoredrailwaysasinstrumentsforexecutive
5.3.1Structuralasymmetry
5.3.2Executiveextraversionthroughrailways
5.3.3Externalenabler:afragmentedChina
Acknowledgements
InwritingthisbookIhaveincurredmanydebts.Thisbookcouldnothave beencompletedwithouttheinterviewees’generoussharinginAngola,China, Ethiopia,andKenya.Theirrichpracticalexperiencesarevaluablesourcesof knowledgeformeacademically.Atapersonallevel,Iwasconstantlyinspired bytheirstrongdeterminationtoproceeddespiteobstacles.Iwasextremely saddenedtohearthenewsthatthreeofmyformerintervieweeshadpassed away.DrNewai,JoséPatrocı´nio,andSolomonOunaweredeeplypassionate andknowledgeableabouttheirworkandweregenerousandkindinsharingtheirexperiencewithme.Manyofmyinterviewees’quotesmustremain anonymous,butwithouttheirgoodwillInevercouldhavecollectedenough empiricalevidencetofinishthisbook.
Duringthewritingofthismanuscript,RicardoSoaresdeOliveirawas alwaysthefirstreaderofeachchapterdraftandwasaconstantsourceof adviceandconstructivecriticism.Ricardohimselfrepresentsthehighestlevel ofresearchinthepoliticaleconomyofAngolaandAfricanpolitics,andis alsoanaccomplishedwriter.IhavebeenfortunateinreceivinghissupervisionformyMScandDPhilstudiesatOxford,andourcollaborationhas continuedsinceIleftOxford.EzequielGonzálezOcantosandMilesLarmer providedextremelyvaluablecommentsforthismanuscript,savedmefrom manyerrors,andmademyargumentclearerandsharper.Iwasinspiredby thethoughtleadershipofDeborahBra¨utigamtopursueSino-Africanrelations academically.Shehasalwaysbeenarichsourceofinspiration,support,and encouragement.
ThebookhasbenefitedfromconversationsandadviceaboutAfricanpolitics,globalChina,andChina–Africainfrastructurecooperation.ChrisAlden, EmmanuelAkyeampong,JamieMonson,FolashadéSoulé-Kohndou,Tom Christensen,IainJohnston,andMinYehaveall,onatleastoneoccasion, providedsignificantinsightforthedevelopmentofthismanuscript.The ChinaandtheWorldProgram(CWP)alumni’sperceptivecommentsand criticismattheCWPWorkshopinApril2022weretremendouslyhelpful fordevelopingthisbook.Inparticular,DawnMurphyandZoeZhongyuan Liureadmysamplechaptersandprovidedextremelyhelpfulsuggestions
forrevision.Iamalsoparticularlygratefulfortheinsightfulcommentsand criticismfromthreeanonymousreviewersofmybookproposalatOxford UniversityPress,aswellastheeditorialsupportfromDominicByattand VickiSunter.
Otherindividualsthatgenerouslylenttheirsupporttomyfieldworkin Angola,Ethiopia,Kenya,andChinadeservementioninghere.Myfieldworkin AngolacouldnothavebeencompletedwithoutthegeneroussharingofconnectionsandadvicefromManuelAlvesdaRocha,AnaDuarte,Luı´saRogério, ReginaSantos,FranciscoMiguelPaulo,AllanCain,MiguelGomes,Rafael MarquesdeMorais,EdmilsonAngelo,VictorMorais,andNelsonPestana, amongmanyothers.ArgumentdevelopmentaboutAngolaalsobenefitedfrom discussionswithLucyCorkin,JesseS.Ovadia,RebeccaElisabethHusebye Engebretsen,JacobHansen,andRicardoSoaresdeOliveira,andfromreadingtheirworks.Myfieldworkandlaterdevelopmentoftheargumentaround EthiopiabenefitedfromadvicefromandworksbyJasonMosley,BirukTerrefe, AlexandraZeitz,HarryVerhoeven,YunnanChen,WeiweiChen,MariaRepnikova,BerihuAssefa,MuluYesus,GirumAbebeTefera,andZizhuZhang, amongothers.Thetitleofthisbook, TheRailpolitik,isinspiredbyYunnan Chen’sexcellentworkingpaper:‘Railpolitik:Ethiopia’sRailAmbitionsand ChineseDevelopmentFinance’.InKenya,LinQi,ZhengliHuang,XinZhang, PengLiu,JiaoHu,JinghaoLu,andTongWu,amongothers,generouslyshared theirconnectionsandgoodwilltosupportmyfieldwork.InChina,IamgratefultoLiAnshan,LiuHaifang,XuLiang,HeWenping,TangXiaoyang,Zhou Jinyan,ZhengYu,XuXiuli,andWangYalinfortheirkindintroductionto informantsandintellectualadvice.
Mycohortoffellowformergraduatestudentsandpostdoctoralfellowscontinuestobeasourceoffriendshipandsupport.Differentchaptersofthis manuscripthavebeenpassedandpresentationsmadeamongcolleaguesat Oxford,SOAS,andColumbia-HarvardCWP,andIhavebenefitedbeyond estimationfromthediscussionsaswellasinnumerablesuggestionsandcriticismsthatIhavereceived.IamgratefultoClaraVoyvodicCasabo,Hang Zhou,BirukTerrefe,FilipBubenheimer,MikaelHibergNaghizadeh,AlexandraZeitz,YutaoHuang,BarnabyDye,NaosukeMukoyama,DannyHatem, HangweiLi,andWeidiZhengfortheirdiscussionsandcomments.During writingandrevisingthismanuscript,BlenTaye,EmileMathieu,LiyangHan, DannyHatem,XuanyiSheng,MarinaEriksson,andRustemYeshpanovhave beenconstantsourcesoffriendlysupport.MypostdoctorallifeinNewYork wassignificantlyenrichedbythefriendshipandintellectualcompanionshipof
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xi
HongZhang,JustinKeyCanfil,DanielSuchenski,ChiZhang,JunyanJiang, AustinStrange,andYueHou.MythanksalsogoestoZhenYangandKen Bosirewhoprovidedvaluableinsightsinthefinaleditorialstage.
MyDPhilexperiencewouldhavebeencompletelydifferentwithouttheprofessionalandcaringsupportofElizabethBrenner.HughPetterhelpedcreate thechanneltoconnectmyemotionsandmusic;thosesmallepisodesofpiano lessonsignitedcolourfulsparklesinmyOxfordlife.MyfriendsinChina,Molly HuazhengGuan,WenXu,andXiaShen,aswellasmyparents,grandma, andothermembersofmyextendedfamily,areconstantsourcesofstrength andlove.
TheChinaScholarshipCouncilandChinaOxfordScholarshipFundgenerouslyfundedmyDPhilandMScstudies.TheDepartmentofPoliticsand InternationalRelationsandMansfieldCollegeatOxford,myCWPofficeat RiversideChurchinNewYork,andmyofficeatDukeKunshanUniversityprovidedidealvenuesformetocompletethiswork.Partsofthisbookappearin thefollowingtwoarticles:Wang,Y.(2022).Executiveagencyandstatecapacityindevelopment:ComparingSino-AfricanrailwaysinKenyaandEthiopia. ComparativePolitics, 54(2),349–73;Wang,Y.(2022).Presidentialextraversion:UnderstandingthepoliticsofSino-Africanmega-infrastructureprojects. WorldDevelopment, 158,105976.
Kunshan,China October2022
Listoffigures
0.1.Chinesecompanies’completedcontractsbyyear(2000–19)inUS$ billion 3
0.2.Temporaldivisionofthreerailwaysintosevensubcases
0.3.Subcasevariationbyindependentvariables
2.1.KenyanStandardGaugeRailwaytimeline
2.2.Kenyatta’sinstructionandsignatureontheStandardGaugeRailway completiontime
3.1.EthiopianPeople’sRevolutionaryDemocraticFront’scompositionand itsaffiliatedparties
5.1.Bilateraltrade(US$millionunadjusted)
Listoftables
0.1.Variationindependentvariable:railwayeffectiveness
2.1.FactsontheStandardGaugeRailway
2.2.ChinesepoliticalleadershipvisittotheStandardGaugeRailway 85
2.3.SGR-1and2Apassingcountyvotesinthe2013presidentialelection 88
2.4.SGR-1and2Apassingcountyresultsinthe2013and2017gubernatorial elections 89
3.1.AddisAbaba–Djiboutirailwayprojecttimeline
3.2.FactsontheAddisAbaba–Djiboutirailway
3.3.Hailemariam’svisitstotheAddisAbaba–Djiboutirailway
3.4.ChineseofficialvisitstotheAddisAbaba–Djiboutirailway
4.1.TimelineoftheCaminhodeFerrodeBenguela
4.2.DosSantos’visitstotheCaminhodeFerrodeBenguela
5.1.Kenya,Ethiopia,andAngolatopfivetradinggoodswithChina
A.3.ListofPortugueseinterpretersbyethnicity,age,andgender
A.5.ListofintervieweesinKenya
Introduction
KenyanPresidentUhuruKenyatta(inoffice2013–22)wasproudtoachieve theimpossible.‘Todaywillbemarkedasagreatdayinthehistoryofour Republic’,saidPresidentKenyattawhenheaddressedtheinaugurationceremonyoftheChinese-financedand-constructedStandardGaugeRailway (SGR)on31May2017.Kenyattaintentionallyselectedthisinaugurationdate tobetwomonthsbeforethepresidentialelectionsinAugustwhenhewas seekingasecondterm,shorteningthecontractedschedulebyhalf.Originallycontractedtobecompletedinfiveyears,theprojecttookonlytwoand ahalfyearstofinish,makingthisthefirstprojecttobecompletedaheadof scheduleinKenyanhistory.TheSGRcrossedtwonationalparks,opposedby politicians,andwasinvolvedinhundredsofcourtcases,yetpolitics,courts, civilsociety,andevennaturedidnotdelayitsconstruction.Therailwayoperationalsoboastednoaccidentsincetheonsetofitsoperation,whichstarted on1June2017,adayaftertheinaugurationceremony.
ThetrajectoryoftheChinese-sponsoredKenyanrailwaywasnotsharedby itsEthiopianandAngolancounterparts.In2019,IvisitedtwootherChinesesponsoredrailwaysinAfrica:theAngolanCaminhodeFerrodeBenguela (CFB)andtheAddisAbaba–Djiboutirailway(ADR).Theirdevelopment trajectorywasnotassmoothastheKenyanrailway:theEthiopianrailway experiencedafourteen-monthdelayfromcompletiontooperation,andthe firstsixmonthsofoperationwereinterruptedbytwoaccidents.TheAngolan railway,contractedtofinishwithintwentymonths,tookaslongaselevenyears tocompletewithfrequentaccidentsduringoperation.
Africainthetwenty-firstcenturyhaswitnessedtherisingofbuildings, thestretchingofroadsandrailwaysconnectingurbancentresandrural areas,andtheestablishmentofincreasinglysophisticatedelectricitynetworks.Muchofthishardinfrastructuredevelopmenthasbeenfacilitatedby China.Startingfromtheearly2000s,Chinesepolicybanksandstate-owned enterprises(SOEs)havecompletedmanyinfrastructureprojectsinAfrica andworldwide.ChinahashelpedAfricancountriesbuildandupgradeover 10,000kilometresofrailway,100,000kilometresofhighway,1,000bridges, and100ports,aswellaspowerplants,hospitals,residentialapartments,and schools.¹ YetChinese-financedand-constructedprojectsdemonstratestarkly
¹ Vine(2022)
differenttrajectoriesindifferentcountries,andeveninthesamecountry acrossdifferenttimes.
WhydoChinese-sponsoredprojectsthataresimilarinnaturedevelop alongverydifferenttrajectoriesindifferentAfricanstates?Andrelatedly,what explainsthevariationofAfricanstateeffectivenessinpublicgoodsdelivery? Existingexplanationsfocusoneitherstructuralorinstitutionalfactors.The structuralexplanationemphasizestheimbalancedrelationshipbetweenAfrica andexternalpowers,emphasizinghowexternalagency,ratherthanAfrican agency,determinestheeffectivenessofAfricanstatestoachievedevelopmentalprojects.² Theinstitutionalexplanationconcentratesonthehostcountry’s statecharacteristics,notablybureaucraticcapability,inpublicgoodsdelivery.
MybookarguesthatitisthesalienceoftheAfricanpoliticalleadership thatdeterminesSino-Africanrailwaydevelopment,andItermit political championshiptheory.Thispoliticalchampionshiptheoryemphasizesthepersonalistic,idiosyncratic,andunpredictableaspectofstateeffectiveness—the agencyofthepoliticalleaders,aphenomenonthathasyettoreceivedueacademicemphasis.Insteadofunderminingtheroleofinstitutions,myapproach focusesonhowpoliticalinstitutionsshapetheincentivesofleaders,andhow, inconsequence,theseleaderschoosepolicies.
1 ChinainAfrica
China’seconomicexpansion,togetherwithitsdomesticeconomicgrowth, representsamajortransformationintheinternationalpoliticaleconomy. Asithasevolvedintoasuperpoweroverthepasttwodecades,Chinahas increaseditsglobaleconomicengagementthroughinvestment,trade,completedcontracts,anddevelopmentaid.Chinamaintainedanaverageannual GDPgrowthrateof9.5percentfrom1978to2018.³ Evenwiththeeffectsof Covid-19containmentmeasuresoneconomicactivities,Chinaachieved3.2 percentannualgrowthin2020,higherthananyothercountry.⁴ Thecountry’soutboundforeigndirectinvestment,trade,andaidshowasteepupward trajectorysincetheearly2000s.Take,forinstance,thenumberofcontracts completedbyChinesecompaniesoverseas.WithBeijing’sannouncementof the‘goingglobal’policyintheearly2000s,whichwasfurtherinstitutionalized bytheBeltandRoadInitiativein2013,Chinesepolicybanksandstate-owned
² TaylorandZajontz(2020); Taylor(2016, 2020); Carmody(2020)
³ DataCommons(n.d.).
⁴ OECD(14September 2020).
companieshaveincreasinglycooperatedwithdevelopingcountriestofinance andcompleteinfrastructureprojects.AccordingtoChina’sBureauofStatistics,ChinesecompaniescompletedUS$173billionincontractsin2019,90 percentofwhichwerecompletedinAsia,Africa,andLatinAmerica.InAfrica alone,from2000to2018,Chinesebanksissued1,076loanstotallingUS$148 billion.⁵ Figure 0.1 showsChinesecompanies’completedcontractsfrom2000 to2019inAsia,Africa,LatinAmerica,anddevelopedcountries,respectively. ThisexponentialexpansionofChina’sglobalengagementhaselicitedvariedopinionsfrominternationalandhostcountrycommentators.Optimistic viewswelcomeChinaasanalternativechoicefordevelopingcountries.FinancialsourcesfromChinaandotheremergingdonorsallowedAfricanstates toreducetheirrelianceontraditionaldonors;⁶ theabilityofAfricancountriestoleveragecompetitionbetweentheWestandChinacouldreducethe recipientcountries’dependenceonBeijing.⁷ Beijing’sportrayalofChina’s economicengagementwithdevelopingcountriesasa‘win-win’cooperationwasmirroredbymanyhostcountries,whereChinesecompaniesneed workandhostcountriesneedinfrastructure.Resource-for-infrastructuredeals enhancedChina’sresourcesecurityontheonehand,andprovidedfinancial andtechnicalassistancetoinfrastructureconstructioninthehostcountrieson theother.⁸
Completed contracts in Asia
Conpleted contracts in Latin America
Completed contracts in Africa
Completed contracts in developed countries
Figure0.1 Chinesecompanies’completedcontractsbyyear(2000–19)in US$billion
⁵ Brautigam,Hwang,Link,andAcker(2019).
⁶ Greenhill,Prizzon,andRogerson(2013); Zeitz(2019, 2021).
⁷ TaylorandZajontz(2020); Ellis(2009); Brautigam(2011); Wise(2020).
⁸ Alves(2013).
China’srisingglobalinfluencehasalsoraisedconcernsregardingthepoliticalanddevelopmentalimplicationsofChineseeconomicactivities.Some commentatorsseetheseedsofanewformofdependencyor‘neo-colonialism’ intherelationshipbetweenChinesenaturalresourceinterestsandthedebt sustainabilityofAfricannations.Theyparticularlynotethatalargeportionof thesedebtswereaccumulatedthroughChineseloansforinfrastructureconstruction.⁹ Theconceptofapredatoryoreven‘neo-colonial’Chinaisalso widespreadamongAfricanandWesternintellectuals,media,andinthepolicysphere.¹⁰ TheinfluxofChinesemanufacturedgoods,givenChina’slow labourcostsandsubsidizedcredits,madeitdifficultfordevelopingcountries’ industrialfirmstocompete.¹¹Chinesecorporatepracticeshavealsoraisedlocal andinternationalconcernsonenvironmentalimpact,¹²labourpractices,¹³and corruption.¹⁴
InsteadoffollowingthemajorityoftheseanalysesthatperceiveChinaas aconsistentandhomogenousentity,ItakeadifferentapproachandinvestigatehowChinese-financedand-constructedprojectsthataresimilarin naturedemonstratestarklydifferenttrajectoriesindifferentAfricancountries. Take,forinstance,thethreerecentlylaunchedChinese-sponsoredrailways: theADR,theSGRinKenya,andtheCFBinAngola.Thethreerailway projectshaveimportantsimilarities:theyarefinancedthroughloansfrom ChinaExportandImportBank(EximBank)andcontractedtoChineseSOEs forfeasibilitystudiesandconstruction;theylinkthecountries’hinterlandto theport;andtheirroutesallfollowcolonialrailways.Yetdespitesuchsimilarities,theKenyan,Ethiopian,andAngolanrailwayprojectsdemonstrate starklydifferentlevelsofeffectiveness,asmeasuredby(1)timelycompletion and(2)regularandsafeoperation.Intermsofcompletion,theSGRPhase1 fromMombasatoNairobi¹⁵ wascompletedaheadofschedulewithasmooth transitiontooperation.TheEthiopianrailwayexperiencedafourteen-month delaybetweeninaugurationandoperationduetodelaysinsupplyingwater andelectricity,aswellasprotractedEthiopia–Djiboutinegotiationsregarding revenuesplitandpassengerborder-crossingprocedures.TheBenguelarailway inAngolatookelevenyearstocomplete,withfrequentsuspensionsduring
⁹ TaylorandZajontz(2020); Tarrósy(2020); Taylor(2016, 2020); GallagherandPorzecanski (2010); Stallings(2020)
¹⁰ Sanusi(11March 2013).
¹¹ GallagherandPorzecanski(2010).
¹² Ray,Gallagher,López,andSanborn(2017); Shinn(2015)
¹³ OyaandSchaefer(2019).
¹⁴ SolomonandFrechette(2018)
¹⁵ TheSGRfromMombasatoNairobiisPhase1;itthenextendedfromNairobitoNaivasha (Phase2A).
construction.Regardingoperation,theKenyanrailway’ssafetyperformance andoperationfigureshumbleditsEthiopianandAngolancounterparts.This bookexplainswhyChinese-sponsoredprojectsthataresimilarinnature developdifferentlyindifferentAfricanstates.Thisrequiresanunderstanding ofAfricanstateeffectivenessfirstandforemost.
2 Understandingstateeffectiveness
Stateeffectivenessreferstotheeffectivenessofstatestoachieveofficialpolicyobjectives.¹⁶ Largeinfrastructureprojectshavebothmaterialandsymbolic functions,andthereforetheyarefrequentlyinstrumentalizedpoliticallyas state-buildingandpowerprojectiontools.¹⁷ Transportinfrastructure,suchas roadsandrailways,facilitatesconnectivity,shapesthemovementsofpeopleandgoods,connectssitesofproductionandconsumption,enhances internationaltrade,andpromotesnationaleconomicgrowth.Beyondthese materialfunctions,infrastructureprojectsarealsostate-sponsoredimaginariesofmodernity,transformation,anddevelopment.¹⁸ Preciselybecauseof theirmaterialandideologicalfunctions,mega-infrastructureprojectsareoften instrumentalizedbythestatetofulfilspecificpoliticalagendas.Famously, Herbstarguesthattransportinfrastructureservedascolonialtoolsofpower projectioninAfrica,enablingstateadministrationstoexercisecontrolovera largebutlesspopulouslandscapeandenhancepolicyreach.¹⁹ Somehistorianshaveproposedanotionof‘railwayimperialism’andarguethatcolonial railwayscarriedthesymbolsofimperialismandmodernization.²⁰ Megainfrastructurecannotbeapolitical,andexaminingthepoliticsofinfrastructure isawaytounpackstateeffectiveness.
Railwayprojectsareparticularlypoliticallysalientandrailwayeffectiveness servesasastrongindicationofstateeffectiveness. Effectiveness ismeasured thefundamentalpurposethattherailwayisdesignedandexpectedtofulfil, including:(1)timelycompletion:whethertherailwaywascompletedwithin thecontractedandpoliticallyassignedscheduleand(2)regularandsafeoperation:whetherthecargoandpassengerservicesoperateregularlyandsafely. Althoughnarrowlydefined,railwayeffectivenessassumesbroaderpolitical andeconomicimplications:theconstructionandoperationofrailwaysinvolve
¹⁶ Centeno,Kohli,andYashar(2017); Fukuyama(2013); Skocpol(1985)
¹⁷ Monson(2009).
¹⁸ HarveyandKnox(2015);Dye(2020).
¹⁹ Herbst(2014).
²⁰ Davis,Wilburn,andRobinson(1991)
asetofchangestotheirsurroundingsocial,economic,andenvironmental landscape.Thesechangesinclude,mostprominently,landacquisitionand compensation,labouremploymentanddisputes,corruption,modificationsto livelihoodsandtheenvironment,andareadjustmentofthelogisticsindustry.Railwayeffectivenesscapturestheimmediateprojectresultswhileleaving asidethelonger-termprojectexpectations,suchasrepayingloans,boosting economicgrowthandindustrialization,andfacilitatingregionalandinternationaltradeandconnectivity.Ifocusonshort-termoutcomesbecausehaving anoperatingrailwayisapreconditionforloanrepaymentandanylong-term economicandsocialimplications.Furthermore,successfulcompletionofrailwayconstructionandinitiatingoperationsarewithinthecontrolofthestate, makingitamoredirectproxyforstateeffectivenessthanthelong-termdevelopmentalimpactsoftherailway,whicharedeterminedbyawiderangeof otherfactors.
Thedominantexplanationsofstateeffectivenessemphasizeeitherbureaucraticcapacityorexternaldetermination.Bureaucracyhasbeenatthecentre ofdiscussionsonthepoliticsofpublicservicedeliveryindevelopingcountries,dividedintotwomainstreamsofliterature:theWeberianbureaucracy and‘pocketsofeffectiveness’(POEs)theories.Drawingontheoriginalinsights ofWeber,researchersoftheEastAsiandevelopmentalstatesarguethata professionalstatebureaucracy,characterizedbymeritocraticrecruitmentand long-termcareerrewards,isessentialtoexplainingtheeconomic‘miracles’in thesestates.²¹ Inthestudyofbureaucraticcapacityindevelopingcountries, manyscholarsfocusonasinglecapablebureaucraticagencywithinagenerallyineffectivestate.This‘pocketofefficiency’isa‘publicorganizationthat isrelativelyeffectiveinprovidingpublicgoodsandservicesthattheorganizationisofficiallymandatedtoprovide,despiteoperatinginanenvironment inwhicheffectivepublicservicedeliveryisnotthenorm’.²² Africanrailway corporations,usuallyunderthemanagementoftheMinistryofTransportand sometimesdirectlysupervisedbytheexecutive,aretheownersoftherailway projects.TheyarethebureaucratsthatengagewithChineseSOEsonadaily basisandimplementtheprojectacrossmultiplelevelsofdomesticpolitics. Accordingtothebureaucraticcapacityexplanation,thecapablemanagement andstrongpoliticalleverageofarailwaycorporationisthecentralfactorthat ledtohighrailwayeffectiveness.
²¹ Evans(1995); Weber(1968); Johnson(1982).
²² Roll(2014,p.24).
Anotherexplanationforthedivergentstateeffectivenessistheexternal agencyargument.Accordingtothisargument,itisthevariationinthe commitmentandcapacityoftheexternalactors,inthiscaseChinesecontractors,thatdeterminesthedifferentprojectoutcomes.Manyscholarsdepict Africanstatesasweakandpassive,shapedbyexternalforcessincethecolonial era.Inthisview,Africahasneverceasedtoexchangegoodsandideaswith Europe,Asia,andlaterwithAmerica,andthisrelationshiphasbeencharacterizedbytheunevennessandasymmetrybetweenAfricaontheonehand, andEuropeandAsiaontheother²³ China–Africaeconomicrelationsalso conformtothisdependencyparadigm,whichischaracterizedbystructural asymmetry,withAfricaonceagainsituatedinamarginalpositionwithinthe globaleconomicsystemanddefinedbyitslimitedvalueasaproviderofmineralresources.²⁴ The‘Chineseagency’versionoftheexternalagencytheory arguesthatvariationincapacityacrossChineseSOEsdeterminesthedifferentoutcomesofChinese-sponsoredprojects.TheChineseSOEsarecrucial actorsinChina’sengagementoverseas,alongsideChinesegovernmentactors, includingtheMinistryofForeignAffairs,theMinistryofCommerce,andthe EximBank.ThesameChinesegovernmentactorsareinvolvedinallrailway projects,buttheChineseSOEsinvolveddiffer.Accordingtothisargument,the centralcausalfactorthatshapesthetrajectoriesoftheprojectsistheagencyof theChineseSOEs.ChineseSOEswithhighertechnicalstrengthandpolitical connectioncoulddeliverrailwayprojectsmoresuccessfullyinAfrica.
3 Theargument
Thisbookseekstoexplainthevariationintheoutcomesofrailwayprojects betweenKenya,Ethiopia,andAngolawhichreflectstheirvariationinstate effectiveness;thatis,theeffectivenessofstatestoachieveofficialpolicy objectives.²⁵ Drawingonexistingstudiesofleadership,Iintroduceatheoryof politicalchampionshiptoexplainvarianceinrailwayeffectiveness,andmore broadlyinAfricanstates’effectivenesstoachieveinfrastructuraloutcomes. Despitethevisibilityandcentralityofpoliticalleaders,thestudyofleadership instateeffectivenessandpoliticaleconomyofdevelopmentisscarce.Existing studiesfocuseitheronthepsychologyofleadersandfollowers,²⁶ ‘crisis
²³ Seearecaptureofthisviewanditscritiquein Bayart(2000); Clapham(1996).
²⁴ TaylorandZajontz(2020); Taylor(2016, 2020); Tarrósy(2020); Carmody(2020)
²⁵ Centeno,Kohli,andYashar(2017); Fukuyama(2013); Skocpol(1985).
²⁶ Bell(2014)
leadership’,²⁷ orthestudyofdictatorship,largelybecausemanyscholars believethatthephenomenonofleadershipisincompatiblewiththepractice ofdemocracy.²⁸ Theleadership–developmentnexushasalsoreceivedsome scholarlyattention,withmixedevidenceforwhetherleadershipcanbe anexplanatoryfactorforeconomicgrowth.²⁹ Whilethestudyofpolitics inadvancedeconomieswithstronglyinstitutionalizedsystemshastended tofocusoninstitutions,individualpersonalitieshaveretainedthelargest possibleroleinweaklyinstitutionalizedpoliticalsystemssuchasthosefound inmanyAfricancountries.³⁰ThewayinwhichAfrica’scorepoliticaldynamics closelyrevolvearoundnationalpresidentsisfurtherarticulatedthroughthe notionof‘personalrule’³¹ andthesomewhatmorewide-rangingideaof ‘big-manpolitics’.³² PoliticalleadersinAfricaareunderstoodtobemorelikely tooverrideinstitutionalconstraintsandactlargelyautonomously.³³ However, ‘personalrule’and‘big-manpolitics’theoriesputmoreemphasisonhowleaderspursuepersonalenrichmentandmaintainpatronagesystemtoremainin power,butless,ifanyatall,ontheleaders’roleinachievingpolicyobjectives. Politicalchampionshiptheoryadvancesthisliteraturebyrecognizingpersonalruleinpolicyandprojectimplementation,andemphasizingtheefficacy ofinformalpoliticswithoutunderstatingtheimportanceofbureaucracy.
Iproposeapoliticalchampionshiptheorytoexplainvariationinstateeffectivenesstodelivermega-infrastructureprojectsanddevelopmentpolicies. Politicalchampionship istheactionsofindividualsintoppoliticalpositions (usuallytheexecutive)whoendeavourtosolveorcircumventtheobstacles thatbeleaguertheeffortsoflesssenioractorsinprocessesofpublicgoods delivery.³⁴ Myargumentistwo-fold.Theperceivedthreatsfromcompetitiveelectionsengineerstrongpoliticalcommitmenttodevelopmentalprojects fromthestate’sleadership;thatis,thepoliticalchampion.Whentheleaderhas strongauthority,theybuildacoalitionforprojectimplementation,generatingbureaucraticambitionsandtemperingresistancefromtheirsubordinates, leadingtobetterprojectoutcomes.Thisisanendeavourto‘bringtheindividualbackin’tothestudyofthestatewithoutdiscountingtheroleofcollective entitiessuchasbureaucracy.³⁵
²⁷ Weber(1968); LodgeandWegrich(2012).
²⁸ Beerbohm(2015)
²⁹ BesleyandCase(1995);JonesandOlken(2005); Brown(2020); CarboneandPellegata(2020).
³⁰ CarboneandPellegata(2020); Rotberg(2012)
³¹ JacksonandRosberg(1982)
³² Price(1974); Hyden(2012).
³³ Rotberg(2012)
³⁴ Thisdefinitionisderivedfromthedefinitionofleadershipin Young(1991).
³⁵ Evans,Peter,Rueschemeyer,and Skocpol(1985)
Politicalcommitment referstopoliticalleaders’decisiontoprioritizea project.Rulers’interestshavesignificantinfluenceonpolicychoices.By makingaconspicuousdisplayoftheirconcernforaparticularprojector policy,therulerisabletokeeptheirsubordinatesalerttotheirwishesand desires,andbureaucrats,whoseprimaryincentiveistheircareeradvancement,willthinklongandhardbeforesabotagingthem. Perceivedthreats fromelectoralcompetition engineerpoliticalcommitment.Thisisachieved intwoways.Incompetitiveregimes,politicalcommitmentincreasespriorto electionswhentheincumbentseeksanotherterm,anddecreaseswhenthe incumbent’spriorityshiftstopowerconsolidation.³⁶Inlesscompetitivestates, contentiouselectionsmayleadtolegitimacythreatstotheincumbent,and thustheleader’scommitmenttodevelopmentalpoliciesorprojectsincreases afteranelectionastheleaderseekstodemonstratetheirstewardshiptothe people.Apartfromelections,leadershipcommitmentisalsocontingenton otherfactorssuchasongoingcrises,naturalresources,andforeignleverage.
Leader’sauthority istheleader’sabilitytobuildacoalitionofkeyactors ontheprojectorpolicyandpushthedeliveryagendaforward.Coalitionbuildingrequirestheleader’scapacitytoidentify,mobilize,andmotivatethe rightpeople.³⁷ Theleader’sauthorityisbroaderthantheconstitutionalpower attachedtothepresidencyorpremiership.Itemphasizestheleader’sabilitytogobeyondformalinstitutionsandutilizeinformalonestopushthe policyorprojectagendaforward.Rangingfrombureaucraticandlegislative normstoclientelismandpatrimonialism,informalinstitutionsshapepolitical behavioursandoutcomes,andinsomecontextsmorestronglythanformal politicalinstitutions.³⁸ Theleadermayemployvariousstratagemstosecure cooperationtoguaranteeprojectorpolicydelivery.Commonstratagemsmay includecooptoppositionleaders,³⁹ bypassingbureaucracies,increasedmonitoring,provisionofrewardsandthethreatofsanctionstoinducehighereffort insubordinates,⁴⁰ andgeneratingasenseofmissionandideology.⁴¹
WhydoAfricanrulerschoosetoengagewithChinatoinitiateandchampion theseprojects?Iarguethatforeign-sponsoredmega-infrastructureprojects havecoincidedwithAfricanrulers’politicalsurvivalstrategiesandbeenused effectivelybytheruler.Internationally,Africanrulershavestrategizedamongst theiravailablechoicestoensureforeignfinanceandservicesonthemost
³⁶ Nordhaus(1975); Dubois(2016); Guo(2009)
³⁷ Khan(2018,p.645); BuenodeMesquita,Smith,Siverson,andMorrow(2003)
³⁸ HelmkeandLevitsky(2004,p.727).
³⁹ JacksonandRosberg(1982,p.25).
⁴⁰ Dixit(2002).
⁴¹ Weber(1968)
