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ChinaandIntervention attheUNSecurityCouncil
ChinaandIntervention attheUNSecurity Council
ReconcilingStatus
COURTNEYJ.FUNG
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Formyparents
Acknowledgements
Despitepresentingasetofneatexplanationsandinsightsinthebookthatfollows, Imustrecognizethatthepathtopublicationwasnowhereaslogicalorclear. Indeed,Iwasluckywithmuchgoodfortune.Atjusttherighttime,Ireceiveda GeneralResearchFundgrant(#17612518)fromtheResearchGrantsCouncilof HongKongtofocuson finishingthisbookproject.MygratefulthankstotheRGC fortheaward.
Thisbookgrewoutofmydoctoralthesis,thoughmuchofthattextdoesnot remainhere.ItwasmytimeworkingonmydissertationatTheFletcherSchoolof LawandDiplomacy,TuftsUniversity,thattaughtmetoputlessweighton academicfadsandworkonintellectualprojectsinservicetoagreater,practical good.Mydissertationadvisors AlanM.Wachman,DanielW.Drezner,Ian Johnstone,andAlastairIainJohnston alldeservemydeepestthanksfortheir patiencewithmeandmywork.Itwasalltheunansweredquestionsofmy dissertation andinparticularduringmyoraldefense,wheremycommittee wantedtodiscusstheChineseroleinaddressingtheunfoldingSyriancivil war whichpromptedmetochangemyresearchquestionentirely.
IameternallygratefulthatAlantookmeonasadoctoraladvisee,andfor alwaysencouragingmetomoveontomynextphaseofresearch(“Whywaituntil everyonesaysit’syourturn,Courtney?Ifyou’reready,youshouldtry”).Alanwas notonlygenerousenoughtoofferhisownpeersasinitialpointsofcontactduring my firstroundof fieldworkinBeijing,butthenfollowedupwithindividualemail messagesthankingthemallfortheirtime.Adecadeonfrommy firsttrip,and IstillmeetthosewhoremembermeasAlan’sstudent,givenhisproperattention todetailwiththosethankyoumessages.InAlan’sownunassumingsurehandedness,heleftaveryhighstandardformetoaspiretoasaproductiveand thoughtfulscholar.Danofferedsuccinctfeedbackduringmynumerousvisitswith him(“You’vemixedupvariablesandobservableimplications.What’sthenext question?”).Ihopetoimpartinsightsthewayhedoesinaten-minutemeeting; oneday!Dan’sargumentativecuriosity,clearthinkingandtotalimpatiencefor half-bakedworkaresolidremindersforwhyweengageinsocialsciencetobegin with.Ian’sreputationasoneofthemostgenerous,kind,andthoughtfulscholarsis entirelydeserved.Ian’sintroductiontotheCenteronInternationalCooperation gavemethelaunchpadfor fieldwork,andhe always madetimetoreadmy (many)draftsandmeetinperson.ThoseofyouwhoknowIanwillbeunsurprised;andthoseofyouwhoknowwhatascholar-practitioner’sschedulelooks likewillberightfullyimpressed.I’mgratefulforIan’smentorshiptosaytheleast.
Iain’sworkisacontinualsourceofinspirationforme.Alanwasrightthatwhile othersseetheworldinblackandwhite,Iainiswatchingincolor.Iainspenthours discussingmyDarfurcasewithme,andinaskingprobingquestionsaboutmy interviewminutiae,heshowedme first-handhowtoactually do process-tracing. Themonths(orlet’sbehonesthere,years)spentreworkingandrethinkingthis singlecase,meantthatthegrowingpainsforthenextcasestudieswerenowhere nearasbad.Ithankeachofmyteachersforlettingmeobserveandlearnas Ibecamemyownindependentresearcher.Iwillalwaysbeastudentintheir company,andtheirunanimousassumptionthatIwouldwriteabookwasa touchstoneformeuponmydeparturefromBostonfornewresponsibilitiesand timepressuresinHongKong.
Anumberoffellowshipsandvisitingpositionsgavemerespitetoworkonthe ideascontainedhere.Someofmyinitial fieldworkwassupportedbyaKonosuke MatsushitaMemorialFoundationgrant(#11-003),whichenabledmetostartdata collection.IwasaresearchfellowintheInternationalSecurityProgramatthe BelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs,HarvardUniversity,underthe guidanceofStevenE.MillerandStephenM.Walt.Theprogramprovidedan intellectualenvironmenttocontemplatelargerimplicationsofmyresearch,and anexcellentopportunitytopresentinitialideastoanaudienceskepticalthat Chinacouldbeinterestedinsuchvaguethingsas ‘status’ and ‘responsibility.’ Iwasapre-doctoralresearchfellowattheCenteronInternationalCooperation, NewYorkUniversity,andthankRichardGowan,JakeSherman,andBenTortolani inparticular.Theyallnudgedalongmythinkingandemphasizedthepolicy relevanceofmyresearch.Ihadaneye-openingsummerservingintheUN DepartmentofPeacekeepingOperations–PolicyandBestPracticesSectionunder theguidanceofDavidHaeri,RoxanehBazergan,andRebeccaJovin.Itwasthere thatItrulyrealizedthatoutcomesintherealworldareidiosyncraticandfortuitous, andthatevenapparentlyinsignificant,privatemomentshaverippleeffectsfor policy.BothIainandThomasJ.Christensensupportedmeforayear-longfellowshipattheFairbankCenterforChineseStudies,HarvardUniversitythroughthe nowColumbia-HarvardChinaandtheWorldProgramfundedbytheCarnegie CorporationofNewYork.Iamsogratefulforthatuninterruptedopportunityto think,collectdata,andwrite.IthankbothIainandTomforthementorshipoverthe years,andforremindingmeoftheimportanceofhavingwork-lifebalance, somethingnotreallyvaluedintheacademe.ItwasTomwhowiselyremindedme toworksixdaysaweekwhileIcouldstilljustifyit,andthennottofeelguiltywhen otherprioritiesprevailed.IamalsogladfortheCWPfriendshipsandscholarly network;thejoltofenergyfromtheworkshopsessionsarealwaysworththe dreadedjetlag.ColinWighthadmeasavisitorintheDepartmentofPoliticsand InternationalRelationsattheUniversityofSydneywhenIwasrethinkingthe researchframework,andJingdongYuanwasageneroushosttheretoo.Ialso thankYoungHwanShinoftheEastAsiaInstituteinSeoulformyfellowshipin
theProgramonPeace,Governance,andDevelopmentinEastAsiafundedbythe JapanFoundation,theChiangChing-kuoFoundationforInternationalScholarly ExchangeofTaiwan,andYBM/KIS,whichgavemethevaluableopportunityto thinkthroughbackgroundideasfortheproject.
Manypeoplehavesupportedme,inbigwaysandsmall,andwithoutthem Iwouldn’thave figuredoutwhereIwasgoing.Thanksgotomyseniors Steve Chan,RosemaryFoot,andJaIanChong whoofferedencouragementforthe projectandreadvariousdraftsalongtheway.ThankyoutoJeniferBurckettPicker,LydiaM.Chen,JessicaDaniels,AnnDecembrele,NoahGall,Laurie Hurley,SusanLynch,EllenMcDonald,CarolMurphy,MiriamSeltzer,Sharon To,DanielTsang,andMayYimforallkeepingtheliteraland figurativetrains runningontime.
AtOxfordUniversityPress,DominicByattwasajoyofaneditortoworkwith, andIamsogratefulthathesawpromiseinthisprojectandkeptupthehuntfor reviewers.MatthewWilliamsandCélineLouasliablypulledtogetherallthe different filesandkeptproductionhumming.RobWilkinsonadmirablycleaned mytext.Iamindebtedtoallfourreviewersfortheircommentsandqueriesthat undoubtedlyimprovedthisbook.Someinitialdraftsofmyresearchwerepublishedasjournalarticles.My2018article, “SeparatingInterventionFromRegime Change?China’sDiplomaticInnovationsattheUNSecurityCouncilRegarding theSyriaCrisis,” TheChinaQuarterly,235,693–712isreprintedwithpermission fromCambridgeUniversityPress.My2016article, “GlobalSouthsolidarity? China,regionalorganisationsandinterventionintheLibyanandSyrian civilwars,” ThirdWorldQuarterly 37:1,33–50,isreprintedbypermissionof thepublisherTaylor&FrancisLtd.Copyright©SouthseriesInc.,www. thirdworldquarterly.com,reprintedbypermissionofTaylor&FrancisLtd, www.tandfonline.comonbehalfofSouthseriesInc.,www.thirdworldquarterly. com.v1.9.My2016article, “ExplainingChina’sDeploymenttoUNPeacekeeping Operations,” InternationalRelationsoftheAsia-Pacific 16:3,409–41isreprinted bypermissionofOxfordUniversityPressandtheJapanAssociationofInternationalRelations.Thisprojectalsobenefitedfromanumberofscholarswho gavetheirtimetochallengemywork.Thankyoutotheparticipantsatseminarsat theFletcherSchoolofLawandDiplomacy,theNationalUniversityofSingapore, theSaltzmanInstituteforWarandPeaceStudiesattheSchoolofInternational andPublicAffairsatColumbiaUniversity,theChinaandtheWorldCenteratthe AustraliaNationalUniversity,theAsia-PacificCentrefortheResponsibilityto ProtectattheUniversityofQueensland,andtheSecurityStudiesGroupatthe UniversityofSydney,KeioUniversity,PekingUniversity,SeoulNationalUniversity,TheUniversityofNottingham-Ningbo,andatNYU-Shanghai.
IamluckytohaveasupportiveresearchenvironmentattheDepartmentof PoliticsandPublicAdministrationattheUniversityofHongKong.Thankyouto colleaguespastandpresent,inparticularJohnBurns,JosephC.W.Chan,Peter
Cheung,YvonneChiu,JamesGledhill,EnzeHan,WillHayward,IanHolliday, InwookKim,DannyLam,HelenLiu,KaiQuek,UweSteinhoff,andInjooSohn fordiscussingdifferentphasesoftheprojectwithme.ThankyoutoThomas S.Wilkins,whowasvisitingfacultyintheDepartment,forsograciouslyfacilitatingmytimeattheUniversityofSydney.ThankyoutoElizaW.Y.Leefor supportingmymini-sabbaticalandtoRichardW.Huformakingmyapplication totheRGCpossible.ThanksinparticulartobothJosephandIanfortheirsenseof perspectiveonacademiclifeandmentorshipovertheyears.Bothbelievedinthe valueofthismonographandgavesteadyguidanceonmanagingmycompeting professionaldemandsasIembarkedonthismulti-yearproject.Iamindebtedto DebbyS.W.Chan,ChristelleChartrand,YudiFeng,andShing-HonLamforthe yeoman ’sworkofresearchassistance.Thiscategoryoftasksincludedferreting downdead-ends,chasingwindingpapertrails,andforeverexplainingsoftwareto thistechdinosaur.Inparticular,DebbyandShing-Hondealtwiththebruntofmy off-the-cuffandshort-noticerequests,ofwhichthereweremany.Iamhonoredto havelearnedfromsuchbright,youngscholarsandforeign-policypractitioners. Manycolleagues,friends,andfamilycheeredmeonalongtheway.Thankyouto NicholeArgoBenItzhak,YanBennett,SusannaP.Campbell,JonathanT.Chow, EndaCurran,Leif-EricEasley,JoeGagliano,NancyW.Gleason,ElkeJahns-Harms, TiffanyKam,JungEunKim,JeehyeKim,AlannaKrolikowski,JadaLam,Marc Lanteigne,TabithaMallory,BenMazzotta,ElizabethMcClintock,BexMetcalf, DipaliMukhopadhyay,JennyPowlesland,XiaoyuPu,IvanW.Rasmussen,Mihaela Papa,TracyRichardson,DanielSuchenski,SarahTeitt,MarinaTravayiakisMelidonis,andSeanWongforalloftheirsupport.IthankWilfredWaninparticularfor readingdrafts,puttingupwith all ofmyWhatsAppmessages,andforalways makingthetimetocallandcommiserate.ThankyoualsotoJenniferL.Erickson forofferingfrankinsightsonthebookpublishingodysseyandforallofher encouragementviaemail,ISAcatch-ups,andskypecalls.ThankstoKeiKogafor allofhissageadviceovertheyears(“justwriteit,Courtney!”)andforalwayssetting apaceformetofollow.
Theresearchthatfollowsisimpossibletodowithoutthetimeandobservations fromthedecision-makersaddressingtheseforeign-policycrises.Iamindebtedto allofmyintervieweesfortheirinsights,contacts,andreflectionsastohowforeign policyactuallyhappens.Numerouscigarettebreaks,coffeeandteaappointments helpedmeunderstandjusthowcomplex,tenuous,andattimesfortuitous,the workofday-to-dayinternationalrelationsactuallyis.IleftmanyBeijingandNew Yorkresearchtripsthinkingitwasfranklyamarvelthatanyinternationalresponse isofferedatallforcrisesintheseperennially ‘farawayplaces.’ Thankyoutoeachof myintervieweesfortheirgenerosityandpatiencewithmyquestions,andrepeated contactthroughouttheyears.Manyintervieweesnotonlyrecommendedothersto callonnext,butactuallyvouchedformetofacilitatemyappointments.
Thankyoutomytwolittlelovesforbeingtheembodimentofjoyandthebest formofdistraction twothingsthatallwritersneedingreatquantities.Myreal commitmenttoworkonthisbookbeganwhenmy firstwasstillteething,and Iwaspregnantwithoursecond.NeverdidIthinkIwouldwritesingingnursery rhymes,bouncingababydesperateto ‘help’ byjabbingatthekeyboard and neverdidIthinkthatIwould findithilarioustodoso.Mychildren,andtheir curiosity,exuberance,andpersistence(“Idoitmyself,Mama! ”)havegivenmea truesenseofpurposeaboutmyday.Myhusbanddeservesmuchgratitude. Writingisaninherentlyselfishtask:staringintospace,attemptingtoclearyour head,anddismissingwanderingthoughtsinordertotypeafewsentences.Allof thislooksmuchliketime-wastingtotheuntrainedeye.Myhusbandneveronce askedifIcouldwritefaster.AndhegavemetheonethingIcouldn ’t find anywhereelsewhentherealcrunchcame:time.Timeformetothink,write, andsleep atrueluxurywhenyoufaceakillercombinationofwriter’sblock,halffinisheddrafts,andagrowingbrood.Myhusband’sowncuriosityandzestforlife keepsmebuoyantwhenbuffeted.Iamsogratefulthatourstarsaligned.
Mydeepestthanksgotomy firstteachers,myparents.Myparentshavealways encouragedmetobelieveinmyselfandtobeunafraidof ‘stretch.’ Theyhadfaith thatIknewwhatIwasdoing evenasa16-year-oldchoosingtomovetoLondon toreadthefuzzystuffofInternationalRelations.Inparticular,Iwillalwaysbe gratefulformyparentstakingcareofeverythingduringmyjuniorsabbatical,my onepreciousopportunitytofocusonthebook’sfoundation.Mominparticular selflesslytookcareofmeandmygrowingfamily andkeptmeingoodcompany walkingtothestationandgoingfortea.Daddywasthe firsttoreadthewhole manuscript.Bothmyparentsremainmymoststeadyguides,listeningtome debateabouthowtoproceedinworkandlife.Idedicatethisbooktomyparents withlove.
4.StatusandInterventioninDarfur,Sudan2004
IV.CONCLUSION
ListofGraphs
2.1.ChineseNationalKnowledgeIndexkeywordsearchfor “regimechange” inthecorenewspaperdatabasefor2000–2015,withoutduplicates30
2.2.ChineseNationalKnowledgeIndexkeywordsearchfor “regimechange” inabstractsoftheacademicjournalsdatabasefor2000–2015, withoutduplicates 30
4.1.FactivadatabasesearchofEnglish-languagesourcesregarding “Darfur” and “regimechange” within fivewords,2004–2008,withoutduplicates67
4.2.FactivadatabasesearchofEnglish-languagesourcesregarding “China” and “Darfur” asheadline/leadterms,2004–2008,withoutduplicates 83
5.1.FactivadatabasesearchofEnglish-languagesourcesregarding “Libya” and “regimechange” within fivewords,2000–2014,withoutduplicates93
5.2.FactivadatabasesearchofEnglish-languagesourcesregarding “Libya” and “regimechange” within fivewordsbymonth,2011,withoutduplicates93
6.1.FactivadatabasesearchofEnglish-languagesourcesregarding “Syria” and “regimechange” within fivewords,2000–2014,withoutduplicates112
6.2.FactivadatabasesearchofEnglish-languagesourcesregarding “Syria” and “regimechange” within fivewordsbymonth,2011–2014,without duplicates 112
ListofTables
1.1.China’sabstentionsonsanctions-relatedUNSecurityCouncilresolutions inthe1990s
3.1.Separatingstatus,reputation,honor,andprestige
3.2.SummaryofthecaseuniverseofChina’sresponsestointervention
4.1.KeyUNSecurityCouncilResolutionsregardingtheDarfurcrisis
5.1.KeyUNSecurityCouncilResolutionsregardingtheLibyacrisis
6.1.KeyUNSecurityCouncilResolutionsregardingtheSyriacrisis
ListofAbbreviations
AMISAfricanUnionMissioninSudan
ASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations
AUAfricanUnion
CCPChineseCommunistParty
DPRKDemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKorea
EUEuropeanUnion
FRYFederalRepublicofYugoslavia
GCCGulfCooperationCouncil
HIPPOHigh-levelIndependentPanelonPeaceOperations
ICCInternationalCriminalCourt
KFORKosovoForce
LASLeagueofArabStates
MINUGUAUNVerificationMissioninGuatemala
MINUSTAHUnitedNationsStabilizationMissioninHaiti
MONUCUNOrganizationMissionintheDemocraticRepublicofCongo
NATONorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization
NLDNationalLeagueforDemocracy
OICOrganizationofIslamicCooperation
OSCEOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope
P3P3(theUnitedStates,theUnitedKingdom,andFrance)
PLAPeople’sLiberationArmy
RPFRwandanPatrioticFront
SADCSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity
UN UnitedNations
UNAMETUNMissionforEastTimor
UNAMIDUN–AUHybridMissioninDarfur
UNAMIRUNAssistanceMissioninRwanda
UNFICYPUNPeacekeepingForceinCyprus
UNIFILUNInterimForceinLebanon
UNITAFUnitedTaskForce
UNMILUnitedNationsMissioninLiberia
UNMISUNMissioninSudan
UNOSOMIIUnitedNationsOperationinSomaliaII
UNPREDEPUNPreventativeDeploymentForce
UNPROFORUNProtectionForce
UNSCUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil
UNSCRUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilResolution
UNSMISUNSupervisionMissioninSyria
UNTAETUnitedNationsTransitionalAdministrationinEastTimor
Introduction
ChinaisincreasinglyforthrightaboutthespecterofregimechangeattheUN SecurityCouncil.ChinawasoutragedwiththetopplingofColonelMuammar Gaddafi inOctober2011,consistentlycondemningtheescalationofthebombing campaignasoversteppingtheUNSecurityCouncilmandate.¹Theno-flyzoneand protectionofciviliansmandateimplementationwereproofforsomeChinese officialsthat “Westerncountrieshavelongharboredtheintentionofdethroning Libya’sMuammarGadhafi regime.”²WhendebatingpossiblemodesofinterventionintotheSyriacrisis,Chineseofficialshaveoftenstressedthat “Chinaopposes anyexternallyimposedsolutionaimedatforcingaforeign-imposedregime change.”³InescalatingUNSecurityCouncilsanctionsagainsttheDemocratic People’sRepublicofKorea,ChinapointedlyremindedfellowCouncilmembers “don’tseekforeign-imposedregimechange;don’tinciteacollapseoftheregime.”⁴ RepeatedstatementslikethesebelieaseriousconcernforChinaaboutthetensions betweenregimechangeandUNSecurityCouncilintervention.WhileChinahas graduallyeasedintoacceptingintervention,Chinaremainsreluctanttocondone regimechange.⁵ Amongstotherreasons,aleadingconcernforChinaisthatbeing permissiveincasesofregimechangecouldsetprecedentforsuchactionsagainst China,whereChineseCommunistPartycontrolandstabilityisarguablythemost importantcoreinterestforBeijing.AsoneChineseMinistryofForeignAffairs advisorplainlystated: “whenwevoteonSyria,wearethinkingofChina.”⁶
China’sconcernsaredrivenbyanawarenessthattheUNSecurityCouncil coulddirectlyorindirectlyaddressregimechange:theforcibleorcoercedremoval ofthepoliticalleadershipofastatebyoutsideactors. ⁷ Broadchangesinthe internationalsystem,meanthatnormslikeprotectionofcivilians,accountability, andtheresponsibilitytoprotectareconsistentlyinvokedtoprotectpopulations underthreatofmassabusebytheirgovernments.NolongerareUNeffortslimited tointer-statethreatstointernationalpeaceandsecurity,butincludeaddressing internalthreatslikegenocide,ethniccleansing,andstatefailure,forexample. Scholarswrylyobservethatinthepost-ColdWarera,amuchmoretargeteduseof forceagainstseniorgovernmentofficials,asopposedtowholestates,wouldhave savedmuchbloodandtreasure.⁸ Inanerawherestatesthemselvesdeliberately abusetheirpopulations,oftenwiththedirectionandsupportofseniorgovernmentofficials,theUNSecurityCouncilhasauthorizedresolutionsthatfundamentallychallengegovernmentleadershipstructures inorder toaddressthemass
2
humanrightsabuseathand,ratherthanassumingthehoststategovernmentasa partnerinresolution.⁹ Forexample,InternationalCriminalCourtreferralsfor SudanandLibyaledtotheindictmentsofbothstates ’ leaders;¹⁰ peaceenforcementmissionsinthecaseofCôted’IvoiregavewaytoUNhelicopters firingon governmentmilitaryinstallationsandthepresidentialpalacewheretheincumbentwassequesteredtoenforceatransferofpowertothenewly-electedheadof state.¹¹Suchinterventionsmeantoapplypressureontheregime,leadingtoa blurringofregimechangeandUN-ledintervention.¹²
Giventhisevolvingnormativecontext,thisbookisprimarilyinterestedincases ofnon-consensualinterventionincasesofmassatrocitiesperpetratedbyorwith tacitsupportofthestate.CaseswithouthoststateconsentmeanthattheUN SecurityCouncilmustcoercethestatethatisperpetratingthemassabusethrough aviolationofstatesovereignty,whichisacoreprincipleforChina.¹³This definitiondrawsfromthehumanitarianinterventionliterature,thoughIdonot concentrateonmilitarymeansastheonlytoolforcoerciveinterventionagainst thestate.¹⁴ Inthesecasesofnon-consensualintervention,Ifocusonactivitiesand thethreatofactivitiesunderChapterVIIoftheUNChartertoincludesanctions (diplomaticandeconomic),legalmeasures(InternationalCriminalCourtcountry casereferrals)andtheuseofmilitaryforce(peacekeepingoperationsandno-fly zoneenforcement,forexample) allofwhichdonotrequirehoststateconsent.¹⁵ Asscholarsnote,theuseofthisvarietyofmilitaryandnon-militarytools representa “compromiseofsovereignty...thatareexceptionalinsomeway,”¹⁶ disruptingthe “conventionalpatternofinternationalrelations.”¹⁷
Incontemporaryinternationalaffairs, “responsible” membersoftheinternationalcommunitydisplayacommitmenttoprotectingcollectivegoodslike humanrights,non-proliferation,development,andclimatemanagement.¹⁸ These activityareasandtheirattenuatingregulationsandnormsarerecognizedas legitimatebymembersininternationalsociety,andtherefore,statesthatengage inthesepracticesalsohavestandingofgoodinternationalcitizenship.¹⁹ The normsofaccountability,²⁰ theresponsibilitytoprotect,²¹andprotectionofcivilianschallengesovereigntyboundariesinprivilegingpeoples ’ rights eveninthe faceoftheirstate andbyimplicationholdingstatesandtheirleadersresponsible formassabuse.AlthoughChinamaybereluctanttosupportnormschallenging sovereignty,Chinaisconsciousthatitcannotdismissthemaltogether.Evenif thesenormsarenotfullyinternalized,statesmaystillcomplywiththesenormativestandardsinordertoreducesocialopprobriumandmaximizesocialbenefits fromtheirpeers(praise,recognitionandprestige,forexample).²²AlthoughChina maybemoreengagedwiththeinterventionregimeanddisplayingadeepening commitmenttoitsinternationalresponsibilities,Chinaisstillreluctanttopromoteactivities,likeregimechange,thatareantitheticaltostatesovereignty.
Chineseofficialsarekeenlyawarethatregimechangecanoccurviaa “Trojan horse” ofintervention:whenapparentlylegitimaterequestsforinterventionpush
throughregimechangeonthesly.²³AsoneChineseofficialnoted: “regimechange inLibyaleft[us]withthisfeelingthat...wehadbeenfooled.”²⁴ UNSecurity Council-authorizedresolutionswereusedassteppingstonestoremoveGaddafi. Interviewsrevealthatpotentialcasesofinterventionwithasurroundingpublic discoursepresentingregimechangeasaviablepolicychoicearesomeofthemost difficultcrisesforChinatoaddressattheUNSecurityCouncil,asChinadoesnot wanttocondoneorsupportregimechangeviaUNefforts.²⁵ Discourse,andthe narrativesthatfollow,makesomefactsappearasmorerelevantthanothers.²⁶ Discourse “worktodefineandtoenable,andalsotosilenceandexclude,for examplebylimitingandrestrictingauthoritiestosomegroups,butnottoothers, endorsingacertaincommonsense,butmakingothermodesofcategorizingand judgingmeaningless,impractical,inadequateorotherwisedisquali fied.”²⁷ Public discoursecallingforregimechange whetherimplyingthatregimechangeis “inevitable” giventhearcofthecrisis,orframingitas “ necessary ” inorderto resolvethecrisis presentregimechangeasaviableandlogicalgoalinthecontext ofdebatesabouthowtointerveneinaparticularcrisis.² ⁸ Publicdiscoursehelps createapolicywindow,whendecisionmakerscanswitchpolicytracksatmuch lowercosts awayfromtoleratingoracceptingheadsofstatetopursuingdebates aboutforciblyremovingthem.²⁹ Tobeclear,myemphasisonpublicdiscourseas anelementofcontextualconstructivismisnottosaythatmaterialconditionsdo notmatter,orthatideasandnarrativesalwaysmatter.Iwanttoemphasizethat socialconstructionsbywayofpublicdiscourseofregimechangematterwhen embeddedinwidermaterialconditions.Thisoccurswhenahoststateappears “ripe” forregimechange(i.e.whentheheadofstatedirectsorsupportsmass humanrightsabuse).Andalthoughregimechangemaynotactivelybediscussed ontheUNagendainregardstothehoststate alogicalchoicegivenChina’ s veto thesedominantnarrativescastlongshadowsonactuallivenegotiationsfor interventioninthehoststate.³⁰ AsoneadvisortothePRCMinistryofForeign Affairsnoted, “talkingheadsinWashingtonandLondonareimportantforwhat weachievein[UNSecurityCouncildeliberationsin]NewYork ...it’snotjust noise.”³¹Itisnotthecasethatpublicdiscoursesupersedesdiscussionsinchambers,³²butthatpublicdiscourserepresentsasignalthatregimechangecouldend upadistinctpossibilityforthehoststate evenifthisisnotpartofthenegotiating agendaamongsttheUNSecurityCouncil.³³
ThePuzzle
DespitearepeatedcommitmenttotheFivePrinciplesofPeacefulCoexistence,and repetitionsforinterventionunderUNSecurityCouncilauthorization,hoststate consent,andregionalsupport,China’srecordoninterventionisfundamentally inconsistent,drivenbyapragmaticweighingofprinciplesversusnationalinterests.
Chinanowhasamuchmorediversifiedpositiononintervention,votingforrobust peaceenforcementmissions,³⁴ committingcombattroopsonmission,³⁵ andis activelyengaginginthediscourseregardingtheresponsibilitytoprotect.³⁶ Yeteven withChina’srepeateddiscontentregardingregimechange,Chinahasvariedits responsetoUNSecurityCouncilinterventioninthetrinityofpost-September11 caseswhereheadsofstatehavebeenmarkedfordispatch.Advocatesassertedthat “regimechangealonecanendgenocideasthedomesticsecuritypolicyofchoicein Sudan”;³⁷ thattheUnitedNationsmust “ensuretheousterofLibyanleader MuammarGaddafi, ”³⁸ andthatBasharal-AssadofSyriawasa “‘deadman walking’ ”³⁹ However,despitetherobustpublicdiscourseinthesecasesidentifying thesestrongmenfordispatch,ChinaacquiescedtoanInternationalCriminalCourt referralforSudanin2005andlargelysupportedinterventionintoDarfurbywayof aChapterVIIpeaceoperation;supportedanInternationalCriminalCourtreferral andacquiescedtoano-flyzoneintheLibyacasein2011,buthaltedanyinterventionsintotheSyriacrisis,issuingrepeatedvetoessince2011.
China’srecordofresponsesregardinginterventioncannotberobustlyexplained byexistingtheory.Ifrealisttheoriesguidedecision-making,thenonewouldexpect vetoesinthecasesofSudanandLibya,whereChinahadthemostsignificant financialinvestmentsandclosepoliticaltieswithbothleaders.Yet,thesewerethe caseswhereChinaeitherpermittedoractuallysupportedintervention.Ifliberal theoriesguideChina’sdecision-making,thenonewouldexpectthattheUnited Nationsinstitutionalsettingwouldclarifyinformation,reducetransactioncosts, andidentifyfocalpointssoastomodifyChina’spreferencestocomplywith emergingnormsregardingaccountabilityformassivehumanrightsabuses,motivatingChinatocastatleastabstentionvotesconsistentlyacrossallthesecases.⁴⁰ Yet Chinahascastvotesinallthedifferentvotingcategories,includingmultiplevetoes inrelationtotheSyriacrisis.TheChineseforeignpolicyliteratureoffersfew insights.ChinadidnotsupportinterventionintoallthreecrisesinthefaceofUS pressuretodoso,⁴¹noristhisastraight-forwardstoryoflearningoradaptation despitetherealizationthatChinahadenabledregimechangeinthecaseofLibya, ChinacontendedwithdifficultiesincastingitsSyriavetoes.⁴²Fundamentally, China’srangeofresponsesisinconsistentwithrationalsecurity-maximizingcalculations.Astheseexplanationsfallshort,weareleftwithapuzzle:forastateso reluctanttocondoneintervention especiallyintheextremeofcasesidentifiedin thepublicdiscourseastargetsforregimechange whatexplainsChina’ sresponse tointerventionattheUNSecurityCouncil?
ArgumentinBrief
Thisbookarguesthatstatusisanoverlookeddeterminantinunderstandingthe variationinChina’spositiononinterventionattheUNSecurityCouncil.Istart
withtheunoriginalassumptionthatstatesarerationalactorsinasocialcontext.⁴³ Thedesiretotakeactionsthatcomplywithstatus,andrelatedsocialfactorslike self-imageandidentity,canmeanthatstatesselectpolicyoptionsevenifitmeans bearingmaterialcosts.⁴⁴ Status astate’ s “standingorrankinastatuscommunity”⁴⁵—canhaveindependentandsignificanteffectsforChina’spositionon intervention.StatuscanshapeChina’sresponsetointerventionbywayofChina’ s peergroups.Undercertainconditions,China’speergroupsareabletomodify China’spreferences,evengettingChinatopermitaction.China’spursuitofstatus isinpartdrivenbyaconsequentialistcalculationtomaximizeChina’sstandingas agroupmember,butitisalsoinherentlysocial,withChinadrivenbyalogicof appropriatenessandadesiretoconformtoanintersubjectivestandardofgood behaviorasamemberofthepeergroup.Tothisextent,statusiscausal(i.e. externaltoactors) and constitutive(i.e.partofwhoactorsare).Idrawuponthe statusandChineseforeignpolicyliteratures,usingaconstructivistlensinsofar thatthisapproachunpacksaspectsofinternationallifethataretakenasnatural, givenorembedded,allowingmetoprobeagencyandsocialconstructs. ⁴⁶ Status highlightstheconnectionbetweensocialandstrategicdriversinforeignpolicy decision-making,asstates’ actionsareframedbyanormativecontext.Bybetter understandingtheimpactandscopeconditionsofstatuswecananswerfundamentalquestionsof why Chinatookcertainpositionsregardinginterventionand how thesepositionswerejustified.Therefore,thebookisguidedbyasecondary researchquestion,howdoes status affectChina’sresponsetointerventionatthe UNSecurityCouncil?
ThoughChina’sfocusonstatusisnotanewproposition,⁴⁷ thisbookoffers greateranalyticalpurchaseontwogrounds.First,IshowthatChinaisnot motivatedbyasingularstatusconcernbyunpackingtheeffectsofChina’stwin statusesas both agreatpower and asadevelopingstate therefore,Chinais focusedonrecognitionfrom both itsinterventionpeergroups:theUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,andFrance thewestern,permanentmembersoftheUN SecurityCouncil,theso-called “P3”—and also representativesoftheGlobalSouth, whichincludegeographic-speci ficregionalorganizationsandoftenthehost state.⁴⁸ Second,thisbooktakesstatusseriouslyasavariable,anddoesnottreat statusasaconstantvaluetoChina.TheUNSecurityCouncilisanexcellentsocial environmenttoexamineChina’ s statusconsiderations,andIisolatethecausal mechanismandconditionsunderwhichstatuscanmatterenoughtoChinato impactitsresponsetointervention.Chinaismostconcernedaboutsecuringstatus inthewakeofastatustrigger,andwhenitspeergroupscongregatearoundthe samepolicyposition;whenitspeergroupsremaincohesive,withnoindividual statedefections,andwhenpeergroupscanmakeanunresponsiveChinapay socialcostsforbuckinggroupstandardsofgoodbehavior.Withthisinsight, IaddressabroaderquestionaboutthelimitsofstatusasavariableinChinese foreignpolicy.
