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Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries.
“What Everyone Needs to Know” is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press.
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America.
© Oxford University Press 2020
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above.
You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Johnson, Dennis W., author. Title: Campaigns and elections : what everyone needs to know / Dennis W. Johnson.
Description: New York : Oxford University Press, 2020. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019006861 (print) | LCCN 2019009365 (ebook) | ISBN 9780190935597 (Updf) | ISBN 9780190935603 (Epub) | ISBN 9780190935580 (hardcover : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780190935573 (pbk. : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Political campaigns—United States. | Campaign management—United States. | Politics, Practical—United States. | Elections—United States. | Democracy—United States.
Classification: LCC JK2281 (ebook) | LCC JK2281 .J622 2020 (print) | DDC 323.70973—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019006861
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Paperback printed by LSC Communication, United States of America
Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America
For Pat, with all my love
What
you mean by
and what kinds of
Who have been some of the most important political consultants over the years, and where are they now?
Hillary Clinton had the best team of consultants available; Donald Trump’s group was best described as “junior varsity.” Did Trump show that consultants aren’t all that necessary or smart in getting a candidate elected?
8 Direct Democracy—Ballot Campaigns
9 How Campaigns Have Changed
Federal candidates now say, “I’m [name] and I approve this message.” When did that become a part of
PREFACE:Â WHY YOU NEED TOÂ KNOW ABOUTÂ CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
The right of all citizens to vote and participate in elections is a bedrock principle of American democracy. It has been a hard-won right, overcoming prejudice, stubborn resistance, and blatant discrimination grounded in state law and practice. In our textbook versions, citizens are given the opportunity to choose their representatives and to vote on issues without fear of intimidation, knowing that the elections will be fairly conducted, and the decision of the voters will be abided by. Citizens also are assured that elections will be held on a frequent and regular basis, usually every two or four years. Our concept of democracy also assumes that citizens will be active in public affairs—not just voting, but also learning about issues, supporting candidates for office, even donating money and working on campaigns.
But now, as we are entering the third decade of the twentyfirst century, our campaign and election systems are not working the way the textbooks taught us. We have seen profound changes in how campaigns are conducted, how voters get their information, who gives money to campaigns, how the highest court has interpreted the relationship between money and free speech, how campaign consultants have used their
influence, and how outside forces have tried, and sometimes succeeded, to impact elections.
Before we move on, let’s define two key words: elections and campaigns. Through an election, citizens have the chance to choose from among candidates for public office who will, if elected, vote on policy issues. Usually, elections are held on a fixed day, very often in early November for a general election. Sometimes there are special elections (often to fill a seat vacated by a death or resignation), primaries (to determine which of several candidates will represent a political party), and, occasionally, runoff elections (when the leading primary candidates have not reached a certain percentage of voters during the first round). In over half the states, an election can also include ballot issues, where there is no candidate, only policy issues at stake (for example, whether to have a lottery or permit marijuana for recreational use). Elections are conducted and monitored by state and local officials, candidates are chosen to fill government jobs, and policy issues are decided.
A campaign is the active side of an election: announcing a candidacy, raising and debating issues, scheduling meet-andgreet dinners and rallies, raising campaign funds, identifying potential voters, communicating through social media and television, and getting voters out to the polling stations. Much of what we’ll discuss in this book deals with the changing dynamics and mechanisms of campaigning.
And over recent years, unfortunately we’ve seen some disturbing trends.
• Thanks to federal court decisions, the federal campaignfinance laws have been almost entirely blown out of the water. We used to require transparency; now millions of campaign dollars can be hidden. We used to have limits on the amount of money that can be donated or spent; that’s almost all been taken away.
• The result is that a handful of mega-donors, those willing to give $25 million or $50 million of their own money (often hidden from public view) to a campaign can have a major impact on statewide and other races.
• Campaigns are no longer contests between one candidate and another. Organized interests (many of them hidden behind innocent-sounding names) have flooded campaigns with their pitches, ads, and organizational muscle.
• In the 2016 presidential election, more adults sat at home than voted for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. In many big-city mayoral elections, little more than 15 percent or 20 percent of the voters cast ballots.
• Many voters simply don’t know what media to trust anymore. Fake news found on social media sites, much of it coming from other countries, confuses voters and distorts reality. A president barking “fake news” and disparaging the mainstream press certainly doesn’t help.
• Mistrust of government and its institutions is at an alltime high, and partisanship and the ideological divide are as corrosive as they have ever been.
This book will try to sort out what is real, what is confusing, and what everyone should know about campaigns and elections. It poses 126 questions and answers that are based on federal law and court decisions, the findings of scholars and campaign practitioners, and analysis of historical events.
The book is divided into ten chapters, with questions and answers focused on a common theme. Chapter 1 concerns voting and participation. We’ll look at how our elections work; how our participation rates compare with other countries; the long, tortured history of gaining the right to vote for women and minorities; voting fraud; and how we protect our electoral process. In chapter 2, the focus is on the creation of legislative districts. We’ll look at how state legislatures create districts, the ongoing battle over gerrymandering and creating
districts favorable to one party or the other, and how states lose or gain congressional districts following every ten-year census. Chapter 3 is devoted to the role of political parties and elections. How have the Democratic and Republican parties changed over the years? Why don’t we have other parties popping up to challenge them? How many people consider themselves independents, and how do they vote during elections? We’ll also ask whether political parties have surrendered their role in campaigning to wealthy donors and super PACs.
In chapter 4, we’ll look at statewide, local, and congressional elections. We start with a simple question: How many local and state government offices require election by voters? We’ll also look at how local candidates communicate with voters when television is too expensive. Historically, women have not run for office in the same numbers as men; has this changed in the era of Donald Trump? In chapter 5, we look at presidential elections. Several questions surround our cumbersome and antiquated electoral college system: Why do we have this system in the first place? How and when did it break down? Is it a fair system? Who wants to change it and how could it be changed? We’ll also look at questions about our lengthy primary system: How did we get to the point of having all these primaries, and aren’t there ways to shorten the process? Why don’t we have a straight up and down nationwide vote where whoever gets the most votes, wins?
In chapter 6, we examine the impact of money in campaigns, with the influence of mega donors and wide-open spending. So much has changed in the past few years. What’s the difference between “hard” money, “soft” money, and “dark” money? How have Supreme Court decisions profoundly changed the way we regulate campaign financing? We’ll look at the agencies responsible for overseeing federal campaign financing, especially the Federal Election Commission and the Internal Revenue Service. We’ll identify some of the wealthiest donors and see what their impact may have been, but we’ll also look at what average citizens can contribute.
In chapter 7, we look at campaign consultants. What are the roles of campaign managers, pollsters and media specialists, big-data consultants, get-out-the-vote specialists, and a legion of other campaign operatives? We’ll ponder the question, If Hillary Clinton had an all-star team of consultants, why was she beaten by Trump’s team, which could at best be described as the “junior varsity”? Chapter 8 is devoted to direct democracy and ballot campaigns. How do ballot campaigns work, and what kinds of issues typically appear on ballots? We’ll also look at why ballot issues are a gold mine for political consultants, especially in California. And we’ll explore the dicey issue of whether there should be a system for holding nationwide ballot elections.
In chapter 9, we’ll look at how campaigns have changed since the beginning of the digital age. We’ll look at the revolution in micro-targeting and big data, explore the impact of social media, and look at the role of that tried and true communications tool, television. Finally, chapter 10 wraps up our exploration of campaigns and elections by asking whether our system and our actions pose a threat to democracy. We’ll look at Russian hacking, “fake news,” the vulnerability of our election system to cyber warfare, and other issues. We’ll also answer the question: What can citizens do to better understand how money is spent and how they can better participate in these most important components of citizenship.
In all, we’ll gain a much better understanding of how elections and campaigns work, the strengths and weaknesses of our democratic institutions, and how we can make our system better.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Many colleagues, friends, and associates helped me develop this volume on campaigns and elections. As with several of my previous works, I turned to my colleagues at the George Washington University and its Graduate School of Political Management. I especially thank Michael Cornfield for his insights and analysis. I also turned to several of our adjunct faculty and friends; specialists in the art of electioneering and politics, especially Tom Edmonds and Michael Malbin; along with the anonymous reviewers of this project. I also recruited friends and colleagues who have no real background or specialized knowledge of campaigns and elections. This book is written for them and people like them— engaged and concerned citizens—and is designed to answer their questions and give them a better understanding of the inner workings of campaigns and the importance of elections. These friends have acted in one way or another as my informal focus group, giving me advice on the questions presented here and posing some questions that I had not thought of earlier. Special thanks to Jeanine Draut, Sunny Early, Lollie Goodyear, Erik Johnson, Phyllis Kester, Christina Dykstra Mead, David Mead, Pat Miller, Danny Poole, Mike Saunders, Trish Saunders, Helen Shreves, Susan Wright, and Haskell Thomson and the wise folks (especially Elliott Jemison, Mary McDermott, John
Woodford) at the Chocolate Sparrow Coffee Club in Orleans, Massachusetts.
My special thanks to Angela Chnapko, my editor at Oxford, who encouraged me to write this volume, and who, along with her assistant Alexcee Bechthold, made the whole process run smoothly. Thanks, also to the fine production team headed by Alphonsa James and the eagle-eyed copy editing of Ginny Faber.
Most of all, my thanks to my wife Pat, who read every word of this text, gave me some very helpful suggestions, and, more than anything, was my best cheerleader and support through all the burdens and joys of writing this volume.
