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RadicalAdaptation

Thisbookconsiderstheeverydayconduitsthroughwhichclimateinstabilityis revealingitself:thestormsewerdrainonyourstreet,thepowerlinestransportingyour electricity,themixofvegetationinyourbackyardorneighborhoodpark – thesearethe pathwaysthroughwhichclimatechangeismostlikelytoimpactyourlife.Formany, thesearethelastplacesweexpectitto.Inthisbook,Stone’saimistounderstandhow climatechangeisalteringourlivesinthepresentperiod – thisperiodoftransition betweentheancient,stableclimateofourancestorsandtheunfolding,nolongerstable climateofourchildren – andhowourcitiesmightadapttothesechanges.Stone’s concerniswiththerisksposedbyanewenvironmentalregimeforwhichourmodesof livingareill-adapted,andwithhowthesemodesoflivingmustbealtered – radically altered – topersistinaclimatechangedworld.

BrianStone,Jr.isaProfessorintheSchoolofCityandRegionalPlanningattheGeorgia InstituteofTechnology,whereheteachesurbanenvironmentalplanninganddirectsthe UrbanClimateLab.Stone’sprogramofresearchisfocusedonurbanscaledriversof climatechangeandhasbeensupportedbytheNationalScienceFoundation,USCenters forDiseaseControlandPrevention,andUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Stone’s workonurbanizationandclimatechangeisregularlyfeaturedin TheNewYorkTimes, TheWashingtonPost,andon NationalPublicRadio.Heisauthorof TheCityandthe ComingClimate:ClimateChangeinthePlacesWeLive (2012,CambridgeUniversity Press),whichreceiveda Choice OutstandingAcademicTitleAward.Stoneholds degreesinenvironmentalmanagementandurbanplanningfromDukeUniversityand theGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology.

“Citiesareattheforefrontofclimatechange.ProfessorStoneprovidesacompelling accountofhowpastinfrastructurechoicesincitiesinteractwithextremeweatherand climateeventsbeingincreasinglyfueledbyclimatechangetoaffectthehealthand well-beingofresidents.Focusingonhighambienttemperatureandwater(toomuch ortoolittle),ProfessorStoneprovidesinteresting,illustrative,andevidence-based storiesofcurrentimpactsincitiesassociatedwithchangingweatherpatterns;and demonstrateshowtimely,practical,andurgentinvestmentsinre-engineering infrastructurewouldincreaseresiliencetoadditionalclimatechange.”

ProfessorKristieL.Ebi,UniversityofWashington

“RadicalAdaptation bringsaglobalperspectivetoourengagementwiththereality ofclimatechangeineverydaylife.Inthisinsightfulandcarefullyresearchedbook, Stoneexploresaseriesofemergingintersectionsbetweenclimate,infrastructure, andcontemporarycities.”

ProfessorMatthewGandy,UniversityofCambridge.

“ProfessorStonehaswrittenamagnificentlycleartextoutliningthemostcritical currentimpactsofclimatechangeoncities(heat,drought,sealevelrise,and flooding)andplausiblesolutions.Withexpertsynthesis,hepresentscomplex scientificinformationinunderstandable,jargon-lesslanguage,providingbrilliant insightintocurrentconditions,futurethreats,andadaptationoptions.Thisbookisa must-readforanyoneengagedinurbaninfrastructureandplanningandclimate adaptationandanyoneinterestedinhowclimatechangeisalteringourlives.”

ProfessorPeterJ.Marcotullio,Director,CUNYCenter forSustainableCities,HunterCollege

“Thisbookdescribesthemanywaystheclimatecrisisimpactsonusnowinour homes,neighborhoodsandlivelihoodsandthemosteffectivedoablemeasuresto addressthese.Whatmakesitspecialistheinterweavingofdetailedcitycasestudies withageneraltext(alsodetailed)andhistoricexamples.”

ProfessorDavidSatterthwaite,InternationalInstitute forEnvironmentandDevelopmentandVisiting Professor,UniversityCollege,London

“Citiesareinaconstantstateofbecoming,andnowclimatechangeisforcing societiestoevenmoredramaticallyreimaginehowcitiesarebuilt,andhowpeople liveinthem.Inresponse, RadicalAdaptation providesacompellingeye-leveland planning-basednarrativeonthepathwaysandpossibilitiesthatlieaheadforurban spacesandresidents.Asasolutions-focusedbook,itdetailsthestoryofhowpositive transformativechangeiswithinourowngrasp,andthatthecumulativeimpactof smallanddiscretesteps,evenagainstrisingchallenges,canbecometherebuilding thatisneededtocreatemoreresilient,sustainable,andequitablecommunities.”

ProfessorWilliamD.Solecki,HunterCollege,CityUniversityofNewYork

RadicalAdaptation

TransformingCitiesforaClimateChangedWorld

BRIANSTONE,JR.

GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology

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Informationonthistitle: www.cambridge.org/9781009211178

DOI: 10.1017/9781009211192

©BrianStone,Jr.2024

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Firstpublished2024

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Title:Radicaladaptation:transformingcitiesforaclimatechangedworld/BrianStone,Jr., GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology.

Description:NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,2024.|Includesbibliographical referencesandindex.

Identifiers:LCCN2023031394|ISBN9781009211178(hardback)| ISBN9781009211154(paperback)

Subjects:LCSH:Municipalengineering.|Cityplanning – Climaticfactors.|Climatechange adaptation.|Citiesandtowns.|Urbanclimatology. Classification:LCCTD168.5.S762024|DDC628–dc23/eng/20230822

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Acknowledgments

Thisbookwasbornofanunexpectedoutcome.Interestedtounderstandthe paceofwarmingincitiesrelativetothatoftheplanetasawhole,myresearch group – theUrbanClimateLabattheGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology – carried outananalysisoftemperaturechangeinthemostpopulousUScities.The outcomeofthisstudyenabledarankingofUScitiesbasedontherateofurban warming,andthemostrapidlywarmingcitywasnotfoundtobeadesertcityor thelargestcityorthecitywiththehighestrateofpopulationgrowth.Themost rapidlywarmingcityintheUnitedStatesatthattimewasLouisville, Kentucky – amid-sizedcityinahumid-subtropicalzonewithampleaccess towater.Thereasonsforthisacceleratedwarmingtrendarevariedandrange fromapaucityoftreecanopyinthedowntowndistricttotheupwindpositioningoflarge,heat-emittingindustries.Totheimmensecreditofthecity’s leadership,ratherthanprotestorignorethisratherignominiousranking, Louisvillecommittedtocoolitselfdown.

InpartneringwiththeOfficeofSustainabilityinLouisville,inconcertwith asetoffoundationshelpingtosupportthework,theUrbanClimateLabsought toexploretheextenttowhichalargecitycouldalteritsownweather.Most critically,towhatextentwouldacitywideincreaseintreecanopyandtheuseof coolroofingmaterialsnotonlylowerneighborhoodtemperaturesbutpotentiallyreducetheannualnumberofheat-relateddeaths?Whichresidentsare mostvulnerabletotheseimpacts?Adecade-longjourneytoanswerthese questions – inLouisvilleandnumerousothercities – hasgivenrisetothe ideasinthisbook.

Iammostgratefultothearrayofone-timestudents,colleagues,planners, andforward-lookingcommunityadvocateswhohaveenabledtheresearchand experimentationinformingthisbook.ThislistincludesmostcentrallyJosh Bakin,JohnBolduc,ChristianBraneon,ChristyBrown,BumseokChun,Matt Grubisich,DanaHabeeb,DudleyHartel,MichelleKing,MariaKoetter,Kevin

Lanza,EvanMallen,TedRussell,JasonVargo,andHowardWertheimer.This workhasbenefitedgreatlyfrompartneringwithcolleaguesonaseriesof academicpapersthathaveinformedthiswork,includingthelate(andmuch missed)GodfriedAugenbroe,AshleyBroadbent,MateiGeorgescu,Santiago Grijalva,CarinaGronlund,SharonHarlan,DavidHondula,ScottKrayenhoff, LarissaLarsen,MarieO’Neill,andMayuriRajput.Mostrecently,Iam indebtedtoAtlantacitycouncilmembersLilianaBakhtiariandMatt WestmorelandfortheirsupportofclimatevulnerabilityworkinAtlanta, whichinformsthebook’sPostscript.

AsincerethankstoMattLloydandhisteamatCambridgeUniversityPress forenthusiasticallytakingonanotherunconventionalbookonclimatechange. IamfurthergratefultomycolleaguesintheSchoolofCityandRegional PlanningatGeorgiaTechwhosupportedthisbookthroughprovidingthe neededleavetimetocompleteitswriting.AspecialthankstoMichaela Masterforassistanceincompilingthebook’ssetofreferences.

Last,IamevergratefultoJosie,Wesley,William,Vivian,andOwenfor sharingmewiththiswork.Youaremyhope.

Prologue:DeadPool

Inthepriorage,itwassometimesreferredtoastheSaudiArabiaofwater, anationsoamplyendowedwithfreshwater – intheformoftheEarth’smost massiveriver,sequesteredwithintheplanet’slargestexpanseofvirginrainforest,andelevatedaloftintothewindcurrentslinkinginlandjungletoocean – it rivaledtheworld’spetrostatesintermsofsheerliquidwealth.Accountingfor lessthan2percentoftheplanet’slandareabutbysomeestimates20percentof itstotalfreshwater,withnoneofitstoredinshrinkingglaciers,Brazilwasan unlikelysettingforthearmedhijackingofwatertrucks.Butmanymonthsinto adeepeningdroughtin2014,evenmilitaryescortswerefailingtoensurethe safepassageofwaterdeliveriestopartsofSãoPaulo,amegacityof21million edgingevernearertothelargestforcedevacuationinhistory[1].Asthe Paulistanoswerelearning,evenanabundanceofnaturalresourceswasno matchforanincreasinglyunnaturalclimate.

The firstresidentstoriotwereinthesuburbancityofItu.Whilecitydwellers incentralSãoPaulowereworkingtomanageperiodsofadayortwowithno flowingwaterfromtaps,thesupplyinItuwasfarlessfrequent,leavingsome residentswithoutaccesstowaterforweeksatatime[2].Manymonthsintothe nation’smostseveredroughtonrecord – withlessrainfallinginthe2014and 2015rainyseasonsthaninatypicaldryseason – regionalreservoirswere highlydepleted,insomecasesfallingto2percentofcapacity[2].Evenif sufficientpressuresremainedtopumpfromthe finalshallowsofadepleted reservoir,knownintechnicalparlanceasthe “deadpool,” thesiltyremnants wereoftentoocontaminatedfordrinking.Withnoregionalwateravailable,the onlyoptionwastotruckinwatertodistributionsites – astrategyfarunequalto demandandvulnerabletoarmedconflict.

Ofallthesocietalbenefitsprovidedbycollectivesettlementincities,clean drinkingwaterisperhapstheleastappreciatedofthemodernworld.Dating backtotheancientMinoansofCrete,whowerethe firsttotransportwaterover significantdistancesanddistributetourbansettlementsviaaqueducts,urban waterdeliverysystems – nowcoupledwithwastewaterremoval – remainthe

mostfundamentaltechnologyofcities[3].Whilelocalstorageofsolidwaste enablestrashremovalincitiestooperateonaweeklyorbiweeklyschedule,and millionsofcitydwellerseventodaylivewithoutaccesstoelectricity,nowhere intheworldcanalargepopulationbesustainedformorethanafewdays withoutaccesstopotablewater.Inperiodswithoutit,allotherhumanconcerns becomesecondary.

Paulistanosarenotabletodrawdrinkingwaterfromthesizableriversthat flowdirectlythroughtheircity.WithfewprohibitionsonwhatcanbedischargedintotheTieteandPinheirosrivers,rankedamongthemostpolluted waterwaysintheworld,everyconceivablebyproductofanindustrialmegacity isentrainedintheir flow.Intotal,anestimated4millionresidentsofSãoPaulo lackaccesstobasicsanitarysewagesystems,withmostofthishumanwaste findingitswaytotherivers.SocompleteisthedegradationoftheTieteand Pinheirosthatsubsurfaceblockagestostormwaterpipescanonlyberemoved bydiversinfullyenclosed,deep-seadivingsuits.Thebountyofsuchdives readsasthoughdrawnfromthepagesofashopwornnovel:discardedgunsand knives,asuitcase filledwithcash,adismemberedbody[4].

So,thecitymustlookelsewhereforaviablesourceofdrinkingwater. Developedinthe1960s,theintendedsolutionwasachainoflargereservoirs tothenorthknownastheCantareiraSystem.Designedtomeetthepopulation growthprojectionsofthatera,andcalibratedtorainfallpatternsoftheearlier, stableclimate,thereservoirsystem,whileamongtheworld’smostextensive, hasincreasinglyfailedtoprovideanadequatereserveofwaterforSãoPaulo (FigureP.1).By2014,lowerthanexpectedrainfallfromasinglerainyseason wassufficienttobringthewatersupplyforacityof21millioninhabitants within100daysofdepletion[5].

Rainfall,ofcourse,isonlyoneofseveralvariablesthatgovernthelifeof acity’swatersupply.Therateatwhichwateriswithdrawnfromareservoiris equallydeterminativeofhowmanydaysofdrinkingwaterremainand,onthis frontatleast,SãoPauloseemedtoholdasalvageablehand.Themostpromisingcardtoplaywasareductionintherateofregionalwaterwithdrawalsfor agriculturalandindustrialuses,estimatedatthetimetoaccountformorethan 90percentofthetotalwaterusageinthestateofSãoPaulo[6].Thisstatistic aloneisworthconsidering:Lessthanatenthofthedrinkingwatersystem constructedtosupporttheworld’sfourthlargestcitywasusedtoaddressthe waterneedsofthecity’sresidents,withtheremainder flowingtoagricultural uses(muchoftheharvestdestinedforexport),manufacturing,andpower plants.The firstwaterrationingtooccur,however,wouldnotbeinanindustrial zonebutinoutlyingresidentialneighborhoodsofthemetropolitanregion,and itwouldcomewithoutwarning.

Asecondlevertopullwhenconfrontedwithamountingwatershortageis thereductioninwaterlossesfromthevastnetworkoftunnelsandpipes deliveringwaterfromthereservoirtothetap.Whileallmajorurbanwater systemssufferfromunintendedleakage,SãoPauloexcelsinthisarea,with almost40percentofthewaterthatisstoredandtreatedlosttofailuresinthe subterraneandistributionsystem[7].Hereagain,amomentofreflectionseems warranted:Morethanathirdofthevastquantitiesofwatercollectedandstored intheSouthAmerica’slargestwatersystem – asystemthatrequiresprodigious amountsofenergytotreatanddeliverdrinkingwater – nevermakesittoatap orahoseoranirrigationsystem.SãoPaulolosesdailyaquantityofwaterthat wouldmeetthetotaldemandofallbutthelargestcitiesinNorthAmerica.An emergencycampaigntoidentifyandrepairthelargestofthesesystemfailures couldhavemeasurablyextendedthelifeofthedwindlingreservoirsystembut wasnotundertakenduringthecrisis.

Withtwoviableoptionstoextendthelifeoftheregion’sreservoirs,stateand localofficialsdecidedonathirdcourseofaction:anunannouncedrationingof waterthatwouldmostseverelyimpactthepoorestresidentsofthecity. Referredtoas “hiddenrationing,” thewaterutilitysubstantiallylowered waterpressureinthesystem,initiallyatnightbutlaterfordaysatatime,

whichzeroedoutwateraccessentirelyforresidentsatthefurthestreachesof thedistributionsystemwhere,typically,thepoorestfamiliesreside[8].As neitherthewaterutilitynorlocalorregionalgovernmentofficialsacknowledgedthisdecision,and,infact,regularlydeniedit,thereisnobasistoassess theirreasoning.Butonevariableseemslikelytohaveplayedarole:The deepestdroughtinBrazil’shistoryhadarrivedontheeveofthe2014World Cup,withtheopeningmatchtobeplayedinSãoPauloonlyamonthafterthe firsttapsrandry.

The firsttotaketothestreetswerewomen.Disproportionatelyresponsible forhouseholdlabor,womenwerebearingthebruntofthewatercrisis.Fromthe vantageofcontinuously flowinghouseholdwater,itiseasytooverlookthe tremendouseffortrequiredtolocate,gather,transport,andstorewaterfordaily use.Forstarters,informationonwherewatercanbeobtained – fromanewly drilledwellorwatertankertruck – wasinfrequentandunreliable,giventhe government’sreluctancetobroadcasttheshortage.So,tripstogatherwater typicallyincludedalongwaitinlinewithlittleguaranteeofsufficientsupplies to fillavessel.Ifasourceissecured,waterranksamongtheheaviestliquids foundinnature(waterisheavierthancrudeoil,forexample),greatlylimiting thequantitythatcanbetransportedoveranymeasurabledistance.Last,few householdsservedbyamunicipaldrinkingwatersystemhavewaterstorage capacityavailable,resultingintheneedforcontinuoustripstocollectionsites.

Butadditionallaborisonlythebeginningofhowahouseholdmustadaptto limitedwater – equallyimportantishowthewaterisused.Womentendtobe the firsttorationtheirownconsumption,astheyprioritizescarcedrinking waterforchildrenandotherfamilymembers.Theresultformanywomenin poorerareasofSãoPaulo,where flowingwaterwasceasingfordaysatatime, wasachronicstateofdehydration.Soontofollowwasasharpincreasein urinarytractinfections,asthepassageofwaterthroughdigestivesystemsis essentialtothe flushingofbacteria.Forothers,moreseveregastrointestinal illnessesweretiedtotheconsumptionofcontaminatedwaterfromhastily drilledwells[9].

Ithasbeenobservedthatinperiodsofcatastrophicweather,suchasinthe aftermathofahurricaneorwildfire,communitiescometogether.Butinperiods ofresourcedepletion,suchasafamineordrought,communitiescomeapart. ManyweeksintoseverewaterrationinginSãoPaulo,water-starvedcommunitieswerecomingapart.Consistentlyassuredbylocalpoliticiansthatthere wasnowatershortage,thatstepswerebeingtakentoensureasteadydelivery ofdrinkingwaterthroughoutthedrought – evenasnowater flowedfrom householdtapsfordaysrunning – residentswhohadformonthsexhibited resiliencebegantoviewthecrisisasmuchasaninstanceofgovernmental

Prologue:DeadPool

failurethanasanextremeweatherevent.Aswithallriots,theBrazilianwater riotswerebornnotjustofacrisisbutofafailinggovernmentalresponseto crisis.

Footagefromtheinitialprotestsshowfamiliaractionsofcivilresistance –marcherswithsignsandbanners,womensittinginstreetstodisrupttraffic, apolicepresenceontheperiphery.Withlittlegovernmentalacknowledgment ofwhatwerebecomingdailyprotests,moreaggressivetacticsensue.Streetsare barricadedandthenthebarricadessetafire.Rocksarehurledatpublicbuildings. Andthepolice,nowinfullriotgear, fireteargastodispersethecrowds.Soonto followisthelootingofstoresinsearchofbottledwaterandtheultimatearmed hijackingofwatertrucks[2].Lessthansixmonthsfromtheofficialdeclaration ofadrought,thelargestcityinBrazilandaglobalmodelofrapidmodernization forthedevelopingworldhadlostthecapacitytodeliverwatertoitspopulation. Beyondthereachofmoderntechnology,globallyavailablecapital,orhuman ingenuity,thesystemhadfailedtoprovideitsmostbasicandancientingredient: theregularreturnofrain.

Severalyearsafterthedrought,in2018,thenewlyelectedpresidentofBrazil wouldproclaimanintenttoacceleratedevelopmentoftheAmazon.Elevated topoweronapoliticalplatformemphasizingfurtherglobalintegrationofthe Brazilianeconomyandthepromiseofcontinuedrisingstandardsofliving, PresidentJairBolsonarosoughttorelaxa suiteofrainforestprotectionsputin placeoverthepriordecade[10 ].Alarmedbytheincreasinglyrapidrateof deforestationintheAmazonoverthe1990s,aperiodinwhichseveral hectaresofforestwerebeingcleared everyhour,earliergovernmentshad putinplacereformsthatreducedtherateofdeforestationbyanestimated 70percentbetween2005and2014 – atrendthatwouldsharplyreverseunder Bolsonaro[ 11].

WithlimitedroadsconstructedintotheinterioroftheremainingAmazon –astillvastareathesizeofAustraliaandlargelypopulatedbyIndigenous groups – illegalloggerstransportlong-bladechainsawsviamotorcycles alongcircuitousnetworksoffootpaths.Thedirectproductoftheclearcuttingcancarrysignificantvalue,butlittleifanyofthefelledwoodfrom theAmazon’sinteriorwillmakeitoutofthejungle.Withnoviableroutefor transport,theclearedforesttractsaresimplyburnedon-site,extinguishingin theprocessanunknowableextentofanimallifeandreleasingvastquantitiesof storedcarbontofurtherwarmtheatmosphere.Theintendedexportofthe illegalbutincreasinglysanctionedlogginginBrazilisnotwoodbutbeef, withtheplanet’smostessentialandteemingecosystemrapidlydegradedto anear-silentmonocultureofgrazingcattle[10].

Theprocessofconvertingrainforesttobeefisamongthemostcelebratedin theannalsofecologicalmismanagement.Forateachstepinthisprocess, energyiswasted.Theamountofsolarenergythatcanbeconvertedbythe rainforestintoedibleplants,suchasjackfruit,totakeoneexample,ismuch greaterthantheenergythatcanbeconvertedintoplantproteinintheformof grass.Asaresult,therainforest-for-pasturelandtradeoffyieldslessusable energyforhumans,asthereissimplyfarlessbiomassinanacreofgrass thaninanacreofdenseandmultilayeredrainforest.

Wereitpossibleforhumanstoconsumethepastureland’sgrassdirectly,we wouldneedaboutthreeacresofpasturetoprovideanequivalentamountofcaloric energyasfoundinasingleacreofrainforest.Putanotherway,weloseabouttwothirdsoftheavailablecaloricenergywhenweconvertrainforesttopasture[12].

Yetitisthenextstepintheprocess – theconversionofgrasstobeef – thatreally distinguishesAmazoniancattleranching.Cowsmaybetheleastefficientmachine yetconceivedbynatureandindustryfortheconversionofbiomasstoanimal protein,assomuchoftheenergycontentofthegrassisneededsimplytopropel theanimal’sdailywanderings.If66ofthe100unitsofpotentialsolar-derived caloricenergyarelostinconvertingrainforesttopastureland,roughlyanother32 unitsarelostinconvertingpasturelandtobeef[13].So,tosumupthemath,about 2percentofthecaloricenergycapturedbyanacreofrainforestcanbeconverted intocowmusclethroughdeforestation – 98percentofthecapturedsolarenergyis lost.Thesenumbersareborneoutbytheaveragedensityofcattleranchinginthe Amazontoday,withabout2.5acresofgrazinglandrequiredtosustainasingle cow – enoughland,ifplantedincrops,tofeedafamilyyear-round[14].

Vegansdelightinhighlightingtheimmenseecologicalcostsofmeatproduction,withoneanalysis findingtheconsumptionofasingleBrazilian hamburgertocarrythecarbonfootprintofa200-mileroadtrip[15].Butan additionaldimensionofAmazonianmismanagementisoftenomittedfrom meat-shamingcomputations:Therainforestisnotsimplythebeneficiaryof plentifulrain;itisitselfareservoirfromwhichtherainwaterisdrawn.Andthe reservoirismassive,withpartsoftheAmazonreceivingmorethan400inches ofraineachyear(theUnitedStates,bycomparison,averages30inchesofrain peryear)[16].Thecombinationofsaturatedsoilsandintensesolargaindueto theforest’sequatoriallocationtranslatesintosomeofthehighestlevelsof evapotranspiration(theevaporationofsurfacewaterplusthereleaseofwater vaporfromgreenplants)measuredonEarth.Thisinvisible,risingriverof watervaporgeneratescloudsacrosstheAmazonandthroughoutmuchof southeasternBrazil,alargelyself-containedhydrologiccyclethroughwhich theforestseedsitsownrainand,ultimately,therainfallreceivedbyurbanareas downwind.

Cattlegrazingrequiresextensivegrasslandstosupportit,anditequally requiresrain.ThechallengemovingforwardforAmazoniancattleranchers isthattheprovisionofthe firstinputdirectlydiminishesthesecond.Witheach acreofrainforestfelledtoclearmorelandforgrazing,thereservoirofmoisture thatdrivestheregionalhydrologicalcycleis,muchlikeanaquifer,drawn down.Theimpactofthisdrawdownisaregionalclimatethatisbecoming warmeranddrierovertime,withlessrainfallingtodaythanseveraldecades ago.Climatemodelsconsistentlyshowthatcontinueddestructionofthe Amazonianrainforestwillfurtherdiminishrainfallovertime,substantially undersomescenarios[17].Andso,thedirectconnectionbetweentheareaof rainforestandpatternsofregionalrainfallpresentsacleardilemmatoBrazilian leaders.Tosustainitself,Amazonianpasturelandrequireswhatremainsofthe rainforestfornaturalirrigation.Thesameistrueforthecity.

WhilethedriversofthedeepestBraziliandroughtonrecordaredifficultto quantifywithanyprecision – inadditiontoagradualdryingoftheAmazonan activeElNiñocycleisthoughttohaveplayedarole – theimplicationsforthe entiretyoftheSãoPaulopopulationweregrowingevermoreacutebyearly 2015.Withlessthanhalfofthetypicalrainfalloccurringinthe2014rainy season,thesubsequentrainyseasonalsofellshortofhistoricalaverages, yieldinglittlerechargeoftheregion’sdepletedreservoirs.Afewmonthsinto 2015,therationingofwaterthathadprincipallyimpactedouter-lyingareasof SãoPaulowasexpandedtothemostheavilypopulatedzones,resultinginno flowingwaterfordaysatatime.ThewaterutilityproposedinFebruary arationingsystemunlikeanypreviouslyseeninamajorglobalcity:Without thereturnofregularrainfall,nowaterwould flowtothecity’shomesfor five dayseachweek[18].

Asthefrequencyofextremeweathereventsiscreatingevermoreprolonged breakdownsinthecriticalinfrastructureoflargecities,familiarpatternsof urbanlifearealteredinrespectsbothprofoundandmundane.Stilllacking electricalpowerseveralweeksafterHurricaneMaria,in2017,SanJuan,Puerto Ricohadallbutvanishedfromnighttimesatelliteimagery,withnopowerto operatestreetlightsandtheotherinnumerablesourcesofilluminationacross adenselysettledarea(FigureP.2).Butwhatwasmostarrestingaboutthe strickencity,accordingtothosewhovisitedatthetime,wasnottheabsenceof lightbuttheeerie,deeplyunsettlingsilenceofamajormetropolisrendered inoperable.Inasimilarsense,whatmostclearlyforetellstheadvanceof awildfireintoanurbanareaisnottheblaringofsirensorthebeatingof helicopterbladesbutasoundless,light-alteringhazeinthesky,increasingly intenseandoddlybeautiful.

Forthecitywithoutwater,whatmostcharacterizestheurbanlandscapeis neitherasilencingofthestreetsnoranalteringoftheskies.Whatmost characterizesacitywithoutwateristheubiquitous,unrelentingodorof humanwaste.Manymonthsintothedeepestwatercrisistoconfrontacityof morethan10millionresidents,Paulistanoswereleftwithlittlechoicebutto triagethedwindlingquantitiesofwateravailable.Thelion’ssharewouldbe reservedfordrinkingandcooking,withsomeremainingforthewashingof handsandfaces – orperhapsthesoakingoflongunwashedclothes.Loweron thelist,dueasmuchtothelargequantityrequiredastotheperceivedimperative,wasthe flushingoftoilets.

Formany,itwasthisstenchmorethanascarcityofdrinkingwaterthatwas themoststartlingaspectofthecrisis.Whilenourishmentcouldbefoundfor mostintheformofbottledorstoredwater,aninabilitytobatheoneselfor flush awaywastewasperhapsmostrevealingofthemountingvulnerabilityofurban lifeinaclimatechangedworld.Eventhemostbasicofurbanservices – the provisionofshelter,water,andwasteremoval – couldnotberelieduponinan unstableclimate.Asobservedbyonepublicofficial, “Waterisabouthuman dignity ... Whenpeoplecannolongerwashthemselvesorusethetoiletortake careoftheirchildren,theystarttopanic” [19].

Compoundingthispanicwastheregularonsetofblackouts.Endowed withsuchanabundanceoffreshwater,Brazilhasextensivelydammedmany ofitslargeriversfortheproductionofhydropower,accountingformore than80percentofthecountry’selectricitygeneration[20 ].Asreservoir levelsdropped,thecapacityforhydropowerstationstoproduceelectricity wasalsodiminished,creatingdisruptionsintheelectricalgrid.With adeepeningdrought,evencoalorgas-firedpowerplantsareimpacted, duetotheirrelianceonriverorlakewaterforthecoolingofboilers, whichfurtherunderminestheresilienc eofanelectricalgridduringperiods ofwaterscarcity.Water,inthissense,isnotsimplyoneofseveralelements thatsustainsurbanpopulations;itisthecentralelement.Withoutit,thecity quicklyrevertstoapre industrialcondition – aconditionthatwasnever contemplatedformillionsofinhabitants.

Formostreadingthesepages,theexperienceofablackoutorawatermain break,leavingonewithoutpowerorrunningwater,isfamiliar.Fewerlikely haveexperiencedinamajorcitybothconditionssimultaneouslyand,ifso,for morethanadayortwo.Perhapsmorethananyotherthreatwecanimagine fromaworldwitherraticweather,includingtheviolenceofanintensehurricaneorwildfire,thefailureofcriticalinfrastructuresystemsinurbanareasis notonlyfarmoreprobableinthecomingyearsbutitisarguablymore dangerous,foritcarrieswithitthebreakdownofcivicorder.

Theconeofaforecastedhurricanetrackisknowninadvance;itspathof devastationestablishedandunchangingoncethestormhaspassed.Inthe aftermathofanacuteweatherevent,governmentsareenabledtotakeaction, implementaplantorebuild,andprojectasenseofciviccontrol.Thesameis nottrueforadrought-inducedinfrastructurefailure,whichlackseasilyimplementablesolutionsoracertaintimetable.Atwhatpointshouldamegacityof 21millioninhabitantsbeevacuatedand,ifevenpossible,wherewouldthe populationbesent?Intheearlymonthsof2015,SãoPaulowasexperiencing notonlyanecologicalcollapsebutacollapseintheveneerofsocialcontrolthat isasfundamentaltotheoperationofcitiesasdrinkingwaterandwaste removal.ForPaulistanos,theclimatecrisishadarrivednotintheformof aviolentstormsurgebutasarevelationofinstitutionalincapacity.

Unabletoresolveacrisisrootedinbothlong-termenvironmentaland infrastructuremismanagement,atthelocalandglobalscales,governmental officialspreparedfortheonlycrisisforwhichactionwaspossible:therioting ofitsownpopulation.Asdescribedcandidlybyoneofficial:

Weweredesperate.Thereservoirlevelwasjustgoingdownanddown.Weknewthat whenpeopledon’thavewater,theygocrazy.Wehadseentheprotestsinsmaller

citieswherepeoplewerebreakingintopropertytostealwater.Weimaginedwhat theywouldbelikeherewith21millionpeople.Wethoughtaboutthehospitals unabletotreatpatientsandchildrenhavingtostayhomefromschool.Itwouldbe chaos[21].

The firstprioritywasensuringthecontinuingfunctionofcriticalinstitutions –buildingsnolessdependentonwaterforoperationthanresidentialzones.To ensurecontinuedwaterdelivery,utilityworkersconstructedanew,parallel distributionsystemdirectlyconnectingtoemergencywaterreservesthe500 mostimportantbuildingsacrossSãoPaulo.Largehospitals,criticalgovernmentalbuildings,policestations,andprisonswerealltoreceivecontinuingwater supplies,evenastherestofthecityrandry.Theremainderofthecity’sresidents wouldneedtorelyonthelimitedwaterthatcouldbesuppliedviatankertruck.

Anotherofthesebuildingswasanewlyconstructedemergencyoperations center.Suchacenterwasalreadyinplace,butitslocationwaspubliclyknown. Initiallyintendedtodirectpreparationsandrecoveryoperationsfornatural disasters,thefocusoftheemergencyoperationscenterhadchangedentirely, withthepopulationtobesafeguardedfromdangerhavingnowbecomethe danger.MembersoftheBrazilianintelligenceserviceswerequietly flownto theUnitedStatestotrainalongsideSpecialWeaponsandTactics(SWAT) paramilitaryunitsandreturnedwithanewlycontracted fleetofmilitaryassault vehicles[19].Plansweremadeforaforcedevacuation[22].

WhatwasstartingtounfoldinSãoPaulointheearlymonthsof2015,asthe tapsrandryformillionsuponmillionsofresidentswhohadnotbeen adequatelyapprisedofthedepthofthecrisis,oroftheimpotenceoftheir governmentinthefaceofit,wassomethingasofyetunseeninthemodernera ofhumansettlement:thestageddepopulationofacitythatremainsphysically intact.Whilethewaterutilitywouldmanagetodeliveranabsoluteminimum quantityofdrinkingwatertoamajorityofresidentsuntilthereturnofrain, resuminglaterintheyear,thestepsundertakenbythegovernmentinpreparing forwidespreadriotingandaforcedevacuation – theonlyadministrativelevers lefttopull – attesttotheinarguablerealityconfrontedtodaybycitiesacrossthe planet:Large-scaleurbanizationisonlypossibleinastableclimate.Withoutit, theprincipalpromiseofacity – tomakeitsresidentslessvulnerabletohunger, disease,crime,andignorance – isunkept,servingtodiminishratherthanto enhancehumanwelfare.

Anditisthebeliefinthispromise,stillretainedbymuchofthemodern world,thathassustainedcitiesuntilthepresentmoment.

Thisisabookabouttransformation.Withtheworkingsoftheglobalclimate moreresponsivetohumanactivitythanatanytimeinthepast,notonlyisan

unrelentingtrendtowardhotterandunstableweathermorepredictablebutso tooisthedirectionofhumanhistory.Perhapsatnotimeinthepasthavethe crisestoconfronthumanityyearsintothefuturebeenmoreapparent,more clearlymappable,thanatthepresentmoment.Ifthisstatementistrue,thenitis reasonabletoexpectthattheseedsofthesecriseshavebeguntotakeroot amongusandareforthe firsttimevisibletothenakedeye.Itisthetransition fromoneenvironmentalregimetoanother – ashoulderseasonbetween yesterday’sclimateandtomorrow’s – thatmostclearlydescribesourpresent realityandannouncesthechangestocome.

Althoughwellunderway,thetransitionbetweentheoldenvironmentalregime andnewoperatesontwoverydifferenttimescales.Atthescaleofplanetary change,ourhuman-enhancedgreenhouseeffectisalteringthebiophysicalcompositionoftheEarthatapaceunprecedentedinthepaleoclimaticrecord.When plottedovergeologictime,therateatwhichcarbondioxideisaccumulatingin theatmosphere,pairedwithcarbonicacidintheglobaloceans,assumesthe shapeofaverticalline – theonlysuchverticalityinmorethan10millionyearsof reconstructedtrends.ChristenedtheSixthMassExtinction,therateofspecies lossunfoldingaroundusisonparwithprehistoricmeteorstrikesandperiodsof violent,sun-blockingvolcanism,withthree-quartersoftheplanet’sanimal species – representinguntoldmillionsofyearsofevolution – presentlydisappearingoverthecourseofasinglehumanlifetime.

Viewedfromthewindowofthoselivingtoday,however,thesechangescan appeargradual.Yes,thespring flowersarebloomingearlierthaninone’syouth, butaseasonalshiftofafewweeksishardlysignificantovertheperiodof a fifty-two-weekyear,evenifwearethe firsthumangenerationtoobserveit. Tetheredtoanexperientialtimelinetypicallyreachingonlyfromourgrandparentstoourgrandchildren,itistheperiodoverwhichourbodiesage,our childrengrow,andourculturalartifactspersistthatmostdirectlyframesour temporalvantage – asetofwaypointstoofewtomapthepaceofplanetary change.Ofallthethreatsposedbyachangingclimatethisisperhapsthemost pernicious:Theunprecedentedrateatwhichtheplanetischanginghas remainedjustoutsideofourbiologicalcapacitytodetectit.Butthisis changing.

Throughouttheentiretyoftheplanet’shistory,adiscontinuitybetweenthe paceofenvironmentalchangeandthecapacityofEarth’sorganismstoperceive itwasoflittleconsequence,asnosinglespecieswasinapositiontoalterthe compositionoftheatmosphereorthevolumeoftheoceans.Withthisecologicallawnolongerineffect,thecapacityforhumanstorecognizetheir impactontheglobalenvironmenthasassumedexistentialsignificanceforall species.Ill-equippedbyevolutiontorespondtoslowmovingthreats,we

requireanonexperientialmodeofdetectiontobetteralignthepaceofplanetary changewithourperceptionofit.Themodeofdetectionwehavefashionedfor thispurposeis science.

Butourscienceisfailingusinthearenaofclimatechange.Wellconstructed tolookbeyondournarrowtemporalvantage – bothbackwardandforwardin time – thescientificmethodislesswellsuitedtothepurposeofrapidsocietal change.Therulesofempiricismfoundationaltoscience – itsneedforextensive datacollectionandreproducibility – requiretimetosatisfy.Thelargerthe phenomenon,suchastheworkingsoftheglobalclimate,themoretimeis neededfortestingandvalidation,andthefurtheralongtheclimatechange trajectoryweadvance.

Equallyproblematicisthatthescientificmethodissilentonthequestionof howitsadvancementsaretobecommunicatedbeyondasmallcommunityof specialists.Rigidinitsformulafortheproductionofnewknowledge,science providesfewinsightsfortheessentialtaskofknowledgetranslation.Thistask isleftuptonewsoutlets,advocacygroups,politicians,and,increasingly,our socialmediaaccounts.Thisisaproblem.

Withnouniformlyacceptedmechanismforsocietaltranslation,thejourney fromscientificcertaintytopopularunderstandingisoftenunscripted – particularlywhenconfrontedwithwellmanagedandfundedmisinformationcampaigns.Whilepriorpublichealthbattles,suchasthatovertobaccouse,have yieldedinsightsintoeffectiveriskcommunication,suchepisodeshavebeenno lessinstructiveinthedarkartsofpublicdeception.Wehaveyetasasocietyto concludethatwillful,premeditatedmisinformationcampaignsthatcontribute tolossoflifeonparwithmilitaryconflictsorpandemicsaredeservingof criminalsanctions,orevensocialopprobrium.

Whilecontemporarydebatesoverclimatechangehaverenderedthephenomenoncomplexand,tosomedegree,exoticintheeyesofthegeneralpublic, itisneither.Relentlesslycharacterizedasunfoldinginarenasdistantfromour everydayexperience – thedisappearingicecaps,themeltingtundra,anunprecedentedheatwaveonanothercontinent – theimpactsofclimatechangemost threateningtothemajorityoftheglobalpopulationarepresentlyplayingoutin ourowncitiesandneighborhoods.Thestormsewerdrainonyourstreet,the powerlinestransportingyourelectricity,themixofvegetationandwildlifein yourbackyard – thesearetheconduitsthroughwhichclimatechangeismost likelytoimpactyourlife.Formany,thesearelastplacesweexpectitto.

Inthisbook,myaimistounderstandhowclimatechangeisalteringourlives inthepresentperiod – thisperiodoftransitionbetweentheancient,stable climateofourancestorsandtheunfolding,nolongerstableclimateofour children – andhowourcitiesmightadapttothesechanges.Myconcerniswith

Prologue:DeadPool

therisksposedbyanewenvironmentalregimeforwhichourmodesofliving areill-adaptedandwithhowthesemodesoflivingmustbealtered – radically altered – topersistinaclimatechangedworld.

Myuseoftheword “radical” inthisbookhasamorespecificmeaningthanin popularusage.Rootedinthegeneralpreceptsof radicalplanningtheory [23,24,25,26,27] – anorientationtocollectivedecision-makingandaction thatoperatesoutsideofestablishedgoverninginstitutions – theideaofradical adaptationrecognizesthatestablishedmodesofenvironmentalmanagement arefailingtosufficientlyprotecturbanpopulationsfromtheextremityof climateimpactsalreadyunfolding.Inthefollowingchapters,Iproposefour elementsofradicaladaptationthatrepresentadeparturefromconventional modesofurbanplanning,environmentalmanagement,ornaturalhazardmitigation.Inplaceofourtraditionallycentralizedapproachestoenvironmental management,infrastructureforradicaladaptationmustbespatiallydispersed. Ratherthandirectingpublicresourcestotheareasofgreatestpotentialphysical impact,aradicalapproachtoclimateadaptationisdirectedtothezonesof greatesthumanvulnerability.Novelstrategiesonceperceivedassocially untenablewillneedtobeembraced.Andlastly,underaradicalframework, plannedretreatwithincitiesisnotthelaststepinaseriesofadaptativeactions butthe first.

Whiletheprincipalfocusofadaptationwillvarywithgeography,allcities mustpreparebydegreeforafewuniversalelementsofrapidecological change:extremeheat,risingwater,andprolongeddroughts.Compounding theseimminentthreatstourbanpopulationsisthecapacityofcriticalinfrastructurestoanticipateandreboundfromsystemicfailure.Basedonanassessmentofthesebasicdimensionsofadaptation – temperature,water(toomuchor toolittle),andcriticalinfrastructure – aprocessofphysicaldeconstruction withinthemostvulnerablezonesofcitieswillberequired.Inmanycities,this processiswellunderway.

Temperature, water, humantechnology.Thesebasicelementsofurban settlementarenolessfundamentaltotheworkingsofourcurrentsociety thanintheearlieststagesofthehumanproject.Andourcitiesaretodayno moreresilient.

Heat

Thattherailwaytransportcarswerelabeled “SS” trainswasonlythe firstof severalunfortunateparallelswithanearlierforcedmigrationofcomparable scale.InwhatwouldbethelargestdomesticevacuationofadisplacedpopulationsinceWorldWarII – andperhapsinhumanhistory – India’sShramik Specialtrainswouldtransportanestimated5,000,000migrantworkersoverthe periodofafewweeksinMay2020(Figure1.1)[1].Theneedtoreturnalarge populationofmigrantlaborersfromIndia’slargestcitiestotheirhomestates duringapandemiclockdownwouldnecessitateextrememeasures.Theneedto dosoduringoneofthemostintenseheatwavesonrecordwouldrenderthe extremityofconditionsonthesetrainsunimaginabletoanyonereadingthese pages.WithtemperaturesinsomeregionsofIndiaexceeding122°F[2],and air-conditionedrailcarsaluxuryunavailabletomostlaborers,thetraininteriors wereapproaching,quiteliterally,thetemperatureofanoven.Thetotalnumber ofdeathsfromheatexposureisnotknownbutpressaccountsrevealaregular removalofbodiesfromtheSStrains[1].

WhileIndiaiswidelyrecognizedasexhibitingauniquevulnerabilitytoheat waves,itscitiesdonotrankamongthehottestontheplanet.Desertcitiesofthe MiddleEast,Africa,NorthAmerica,andAustraliaallexperiencehigher summertemperaturesthanthehottestofIndiancities.WhatrendersIndians uniquelyvulnerabletoheatisnottheextremityoftemperaturealonebut acombinationofveryhightemperaturesandveryhighhumidity.Like awintercoatinsummer,humiditydoesnotelevatetheairtemperature;it impedestheefficiencywithwhichourbodiesshedheat – amplifyingtheeffects oftemperature.Acomparisonofrecordtemperatureandheatindexvalues, measuringthecombinedeffectsofheatandhumidity,revealsthepotential extremityofhumidenvironments.Thehighesttemperatureyetrecordedon Earth – 134°FinDeathValley,California – isabout10degrees lower than

2020.SanjoyBurdwan/iStock.

maximumheatindexvaluesmeasuredduringarecentheatwaveinDelhi[3,4]. ForIndians,humidityisthesharpendoftheheatspear.

Highlyadaptabletoawiderangeofclimaticconditionsacrosstheplanet, humansaresurprisinglyvulnerabletothemostminimalofshiftsinourinternal physiologicstate,withariseorreductioninourcorebodytemperaturesofjust afewdegreessufficienttoinducedeathfromheatorcold.Ourprincipal adaptationsarenon-physiologic – buildingsinsulatedagainstextremetemperature fluxes;clothingadjustedtotheseason;acoldshoweronahotday.When theseexternaladaptationsfailtoguardagainstaswinginourcorebody temperaturesofjustadegreeortwo,ourbodiesdeployasmallnumberof physiologicresponsestomaintainthermalequilibrium.Inresponsetoafalling coretemperature,weshiver.Producedthrougharapidtensioningandrelaxing ofskeletalmuscles,shiveringleveragesthebody’senergystoresnotforthe usualpurposeofcarryingoutworkbutratherforthewasteproductofmuscular action:heatgeneration.

Inresponsetoarisingcoretemperature,wesweat.And,hereagain,in sweatingthebodymakesstrategicuseofwhatistypicallyawasteproductto maintainthermalequilibrium.Acquireddirectlythroughtheingestionof liquidsandindirectlyasaby-productofcellularrespiration(thechemical processingoffoodenergy),excesswaterisroutedtothebladderforexcretion. Whenconditionswarrant,however,excesswatercanbeexcretedtotheskinvia sweatglandstoprotectagainsttheincomingheatfromtheSunandatmosphere.