UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) was established by the United Nations University as its first research and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland, in 1985. The mandate of the institute is to undertake applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting developing and transitional economies, to provide a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable, and environmentally sustainable growth, and to promote capacity strengthening and training in the field of economic and social policymaking. Its work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and via networks of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world.
United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) Katajanokanlaituri 6B, 00160 Helsinki, Finland <www.wider.unu.edu>
Asian Transformations
An Inquiry into the Development of Nations
Edited by DEEPAK NAYYAR
A study prepared for the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
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Foreword
Gunnar Myrdal published his magnum opus Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations in 1968. Described by one of his peers as a cheerful pessimist, Myrdal was deeply negative about Asia’s development prospects and this pessimism was manifestly evident across the pages of his tome. However, the half-century since publication has witnessed a most remarkable social and economic transformation in Asia that would have been difficult for Myrdal to imagine, let alone predict, at the time of his writing.
During discussions with Deepak Nayyar—a former Chair of the UNU-WIDER Advisory Board—he proposed an in-depth inquiry into the how and why of the dramatic transformations within Asia since Myrdal’s major work, looking at how nations can develop across time given their different national characteristics, political settlements, natural endowments, and starting points of development. As it turned out, that conversation pre-launched the UNU-WIDER research project, Asian Transformations—An Inquiry into the Development of Nations. The project maps and analyses the story of progress and economic development in Asia, with the region’s transformed significance in the world economy, and reflects on what future decades might hold.
This book, with its comprehensive chapters by eminent economists and social scientists, is the distillation of the entire academic project, making it essential reading for economists, policymakers, and scholars and students of development. Valuable lessons can be drawn from the research—successes, failures, or mixed outcomes—that will help in thinking about the economic prospects of countries, whether leaders or laggards at the point of departure.
I sincerely thank the contributors for their studies, which share with us their individual expertise, and particularly Deepak Nayyar for bringing this very rich academic inquiry to full fruition.
UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the support and financial contributions to its research programme by the governments of Finland, Sweden, in this case particularly the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency—Sida, and the United Kingdom. Without this vital funding our research and policy analysis work would be impossible.
Finn Tarp Director, UNU-WIDER
Helsinki, December 2018
Preface
In early September 2016, I was browsing through the bookshelves in my study, when I spotted the three volumes of Gunnar Myrdal’s Asian Drama, which I had read as a graduate student in economics at Oxford soon after it was published. I had returned to it off and on while working on development or on India. But this time around, it was after a decade if not longer. I decided to re-read Appendix 3 on economic models, with its critique of capital–output ratios, in the context of development planning. This was, in fact, written by Paul Streeten, who was a part of the Myrdal team for Asian Drama. They were close friends for years, as Streeten had translated and edited Myrdal’s earlier work on economic theory and on methodological problems. Paul was also my supervisor as a doctoral student at Oxford. It was the beginning of our lifelong friendship. And I met Gunnar Myrdal once with Paul Streeten. The accidental browsing brought back memories from that time. It struck me that, in 2018, it will be fifty years since the book was published. This led me to think that a study, which analyses the story of economic development in Asia, over this span of half a century, would be a wonderful idea. As it happened, just a week later, I was participating in the WIDER Annual Conference at Helsinki. It occurred to me that UNU-WIDER, located in the Nordic world, with its focus on development would be the perfect institutional base for such a study. And I mentioned this adventurous idea to Finn Tarp, Director of UNU-WIDER. He said that he would think about it and explore possibilities. Barely two months later, he was in touch with me to say that UNUWIDER would like to collaborate on such a study.
At a first step, I wrote a short concept note setting out the idea. In mid-February 2017, this was discussed in an informal brainstorming meeting with Ernest Aryeteey, Ronald Findlay, Justin Lin, Frances Stewart and Robert Wade, in Helsinki—Finn Tarp and Tony Addison were also present and participated in the discussions. The comments and suggestions from all the participants were most constructive. The study was then conceptualized in terms of structure and contents. The project began life in late March 2017 as authors were commissioned over the next three months. The complete first drafts of the papers written for the project were discussed at a workshop of authors at the Central Institute for Economic Management, in Hanoi, Vietnam, on 9–10 March 2018. The discussions were rich, engaging, and productive. Revised versions of the papers were discussed further at a second workshop of authors at Fudan University, Shanghai, China, on 29–30 June 2017, where Guanghua Wan, a contributor to this volume, was our gracious host. This meeting provided valuable suggestions for the authors
and the editor. Selected aspects and highlights of the study were also presented at a plenary session of the WIDER Annual Conference in mid-September 2018, which was followed by a helpful discussion. I would also like to record my appreciation of the work done by referees, who reviewed draft papers at different stages. Their evaluation and comments helped improve the quality of the volume. Above all, I am grateful to the contributors for their patience, understanding, and effort in putting up with my demands for successive rounds of revisions.
This book, and its companion volume, Resurgent Asia: Diversity in Development, are the outcome of the UNU-WIDER research project Asian Transformations. I am indebted to Finn Tarp for his acceptance of the idea and his commitment to what seemed an exceedingly difficult task at the time. Somewhat late in the lifecycle of the project, I also persuaded him to write a chapter on Vietnam for the volume. In the journey to completion, the unstinted support from Finn Tarp was invaluable.
I owe a special word of thanks to the staff at UNU-WIDER in Helsinki, who lent wonderful support throughout over two years even though I lived in faraway New Delhi. Tony Addison, with his perceptive and interesting ideas, was a lively participant and discussant at all our meetings and workshops. Paul Silfvenius provided us with quiet, efficient, administrative support. Janis Vehmaan-Kreula, the project secretary, our anchor in Helsinki, was a pillar of support, with tireless effort and complete dedication, for me and for all the contributors spread across the globe. Lorraine Telfer-Taivainen, super efficient at whatever she does, helped us at the Shanghai workshop, and, most importantly, prepared the final manuscript for publication. The authors alone know how hard she worked.
It is difficult for me to find the words to thank Rajeev Malhotra, who worked as my principal assistant on the project with a strong commitment that is worthy of praise. He was conscientious, meticulous, and efficient. It was multi-tasking in every sense of the word. He helped in preparing for our author workshops, making presentations for authors who were unable to come, acting as a discussant, or summing up sessions, and then assisting with follow-up. And he was a careful reader of papers. In fact, Rajeev provided valuable assistance whenever, and in whatever form, it was needed. It was gracious of him to find the time for these tasks, given his own academic obligations—I owe him a debt of gratitude.
The object of this book is to analyse the development experience of Asia over the past five decades. There is no such study yet. And this is new. It should, at the same time, contribute to our understanding of the process of development. There are, perhaps, lessons that can be drawn from the Asian experience—successes, mixed outcomes, failures—which might help in thinking about economic prospects of countries in Asia and elsewhere that are latecomers to, or laggards in, development. In this half-century, the world has witnessed profound changes in economic development, social progress, and living standards. And, contrary to Myrdal’s expectations, Asia has been transformed beyond recognition. These transformations have been uneven across countries and unequal among people.
Yet, Asia’s remarkable development over the past fifty years has also transformed its significance in the world economy. Thus, how the future unfolds in Asia over the next twenty-five years will have important implications for the world. Given the enormous diversity and massive size of Asia as a continent, this study is obviously an ambitious endeavour. It should come as no surprise that there are unexplored themes, unsettled issues, and unanswered questions. Even so, it is hoped that this book will contribute to our understanding of, and stimulate further thinking on, the subject.
Deepak Nayyar
New Delhi December 2018
PART I S ETTING THE STAGE
1. Rethinking Asian Drama: Fifty Years Later
Deepak Nayyar
2. Gunnar Myrdal and Asian Drama in
Ravi Kanbur
3. Myrdal’s
5.
7.
Rob Vos
8. Industrialization and Development
Ha-Joon Chang and Kiryl Zach
Amit Bhaduri
Guanghua Wan and Chen Wang
11.
Sudipto Mundle
12.
Rolph van der Hoeven
13. Institutions and Development
Mushtaq H. Khan
14. Nationalism and Development
Prasenjit Duara
PART III C OUNTRY AND SUB-REGION STUDIES
Country Studies
15. China
Justin Lin Yifu
16. India
Kaushik Basu
17. Indonesia
C. Peter Timmer
18. Vietnam
Finn Tarp
Sub-Region Studies
19. East Asia
Robert H. Wade
20. Southeast Asia
Manuel F. Montes
21. South Asia
S.R. Osmani
3.1
List of Figures
capita, 1967–2017 (constant
6.1 Domestic value-added share of gross exports in computers, electronics, and optical equipment for selected countries, 1995–2011
6.2 Electronics industry trade flows and structure for selected countries, 1990–2016
6.3 Role of national development banks, 1994–2016
7.1 Convergence of declining agricultural value added and employment shares with rising income per capita in China, India, Indonesia, Rep. of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, 1950–2016
7.2 From more food to different foods: the dietary transition by Asia in comparison to the rest of the world, 1961–2013
7.3 Land versus agricultural labour productivity in selected Asian countries, 1980–2015
7.4 Agricultural and rural development support indicators in selected Asian countries, 1970–2015
8.1 Per capita MVA in selected East
15.2
20.1
change in Southeast Asia:
of
List of Tables
6.1 Changes in value-added shares in gross exports, 1995–2014, percentage points
8.1 Comparing developing Asia in 1970 and 2015
8.2 Structure of production in selected Asian countries, 1950–2005 (gross value added in main sectors of the economy as % of GDP at current prices)
8.3 Peaks in manufacturing employment share in total employment and in total population in selected Asian economies (employment, population, and MVA growth prior to and after reaching the manufacturing employment ‘peak’ relative to total population)
8.4 Technology intensity of top five exports in selected countries in 1965 and 2016 (SITC4 classification)
8.5 Merchandise export shares of selected commodity groups in selected Asian economies 1965–2016
List of Abbreviations
ADB Asian Development Bank
AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area
APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ATC Agreement on Textiles and Clothing
BIMAS Behavior Intervention Monitoring Assessment System
BJP Bharatiya Janata Party
BoP Balance of Payments
BPHS Basic Package of Hospital Services
BRAC Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China
CCP Chinese Communist Party
CDs communicable diseases
CDB China Development Bank
CEXIM Export–Import Bank of China
CMS Cooperative Medical System
CPV Communist Party of Vietnam
DFI Development Finance Institution
DPP Democratic Progressive Party
ECE Economic Commission for Europe
EPB Economic Planning Board
EPHS Essential Package of Hospital Services
EPZ export processing zone
FDI foreign direct investment
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GDP gross domestic product
GER gross enrolment rate
GFCF gross fixed capital formation
GNH gross national happiness
GNI gross national income
GNP gross national product
GRI government research institute
GVCs global value chains
HIDZ high-technology industrial development zone
HYVs high-yielding varieties
ICICI Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India
ICT Information and Communications Technology
IDBI Industrial Development Bank of India
IFCI Industrial Finance Corporation of India
IFI international financial institution
ILO International Labour Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMR infant mortality rate
IPPG Index of Pro-Poor Growth
IRRI International Rice Research Institute
IS import substitution
ITRI Industrial Technology Research Institute
IVA industrial value-added
JKN Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (Scheme)
Jokowi Joko Widodo
KMT Kuomintang
Lao PDR Lao People’s Democratic Republic
LDCs Least Developed Countries
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MEXIM Export–Import Bank of Malaysia
MFA multi-fibre arrangement
MMR maternal mortality rate
MNC multinational corporation
MVA manufacturing value-added
NCD non-communicable disease
NDB National Development Bank
NER net enrolment rate
NICs newly industrializing countries
NIEs newly industrializing economies
NIF National Investment Fund
NIP new industrial policy
NREGA National Rural Employment Guarantee Act
NU Nahdlatul Ulama (Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization)
ODA official development assistance
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OOP Out-Of-Pocket (spending)
PAP People’s Action Party
PCR primary completion rate
PER primary enrolment rate
PISA Programme for International Students Assessment
PPP purchasing power parity
PRC People’s Republic of China
PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PWT Penn World Tables
R&D research and development
ROC Republic of China (Taiwan)
ROK Republic of Korea
RRA relative rate of assistance
SAM social accounting matrix
SAPs structural adjustment programmes
SBY Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SER secondary enrolment rate
SEZ special economic zone
SI social insurance
SLFP Sri Lanka Freedom Party
SMERU Social Monitoring and Evaluation Research Unit
SMEs small and medium-sized enterprises
SOEs state-owned enterprises
SSA sub-Saharan Africa
STAG Science and Technology Advisory Group
SUSENAS Indonesia National Socio-Economic Survey
TER tertiary enrolment rate
TFP total factor productivity
TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership
TVE Technical and Vocational Education
UMNO United Malays National Organisation
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNP United National Party
UPFA United People’s Freedom Alliance
VA value added
VARHS Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey
VHLSS Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey
WDI World Development Indicators
WID World Inequality Database
WIID UNU-WIDER World Income Inequality Database
WTO World Trade Organization
Notes on Contributors
Kaushik Basu is a professor of economics and Carl Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University, Ithaca and New York. He was formerly Chief Economist of the World Bank in Washington. He has published widely in the fields of development economics, game theory, industrial organization, and law and economics. His most recent book is The Republic of Beliefs: A New Approach to Law and Economics (Princeton University Press 2018).
Amit Bhaduri is professor emeritus at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. His areas of specialization are macroeconomics and development economics, both aided by appropriate mathematical modelling. He has published widely in these areas.
Ha-Joon Chang teaches economics and is the Director of the Centre of Development Studies at the University of Cambridge. He has published widely on the role of the state, trade and industrial policy, and institutions. By 2018, his writings will have been translated in forty-one languages and forty-four countries. Worldwide, his books have sold around two million copies. He is the winner of the 2003 Gunnar Myrdal Prize and the 2005 Wassily Leontief Prize.
Prasenjit Duara is the Oscar Tang Chair of East Asian Studies at Duke University. He received his PhD in Chinese history from Harvard University. He was Professor of History and East Asian Studies at University of Chicago (1991–2008) and Raffles Professor and Director of Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore (2008–2015). His latest book is The Crisis of Global Modernity: Asian Traditions and a Sustainable Future (Cambridge 2014). He was awarded an Honorary Doctorate from the University of Oslo in September 2017.
Peter Evans—professor emeritus in the Department of Sociology, University of California, Berkeley, and senior fellow in international studies at the Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University—is best known for his work on the political economy of national development, as exemplified by his 1995 book Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation (Princeton University Press 1995). In recent articles he has examined changing state–society relations and the role of labour, as well as transnational social movements.
Ronald Findlay studied at Rangoon University, BA 1954, and MIT, PhD 1960. He taught at Rangoon University during 1954–1957 and again in 1960–1968, and Columbia University during 1969–2014, retiring in 2014 as the Ragnar Nurkse Professor Emeritus of Economics. His fields of interest have been the theory of international trade, economic development, political economy, and the history of the world economy.
Patrick Heller is the Lyn Crost Professor of Social Sciences and professor of sociology and international studies at Brown University. His main area of research is the comparative study of social inequality and democratic deepening. He is the author of The Labor of
Development: Workers in the Transformation of Capitalism in Kerala, India (Cornell 1999) and co-author of Social Democracy and the Global Periphery (Cambridge 2006), Bootstrapping Democracy: Transforming Local Governance and Civil Society in Brazil (Stanford 2011) and most recently, Deliberation and Development: Rethinking the Role of Voice and Collective Action in Unequal Societies (World Bank 2015).
Ravi Kanbur is T.H. Lee Professor of World Affairs, International Professor of Applied Economics and Management and Professor of Economics at Cornell University. He is Chair of the Board of United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research—UNU-WIDER, Co-Chair of the Scientific Council of the International Panel on Social Progress, member of the OECD High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance, past-President of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, past-President of the Human Development and Capabilities Association, past member of the High-Level Advisory Council of the Climate Justice Dialogue, and past-member of the Core Group of the Commission on Global Poverty.
Mushtaq H. Khan is a professor of economics at SOAS, University of London and Chief Executive Director of the DFID-funded Anti-Corruption Evidence (ACE) Research Partnership Consortium. His research interests are in institutional economics and South Asian development. He has published widely on corruption and rent-seeking, political settlements, industrial policy, and governance reforms in developing countries.
Richard Kozul-Wright is Director of the Globalization and Development Strategies Division in UNCTAD. He has worked at the United Nations in both New York and Geneva. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge, UK, and has published widely on a range of economic issues, inter alia, in the Economic Journal, the Cambridge Journal of Economics, the Journal of Development Studies, and the Oxford Review of Economic Policy.
Justin Lin Yifu is Dean of Institute of New Structural Economics, and Institute of South–South Cooperation and Development, Peking University. He was the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, 2008–2012. He has published more than thirty books on development, Chinese economy and agriculture. He is a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy, and a Fellow of the Academy of Sciences for Developing World.
Manuel F. Montes is Senior Advisor on Finance and Development at the South Centre, Geneva. He was previously chief of the development strategies branch at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and an associate professor of economics at the University of the Philippines. His publications have been in the areas of development macroeconomics and finance, on industrial development, and on systemic issues.
Sudipto Mundle is Emeritus Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. He spent much of his career at the Asian Development Bank, from where he retired as a Director in the Strategy and Policy Department. He has served on the faculty of several research institutions and was also an economic advisor in India’s Ministry of Finance. His main research interests include development economics, macroeconomic modelling, fiscal and monetary policy and governance. He has published several books and papers in professional journals in these fields.
Deepak Nayyar is Emeritus Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, and an Honorary Fellow of Balliol College, Oxford. He was Distinguished University Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research, New York. Earlier, he taught at the University of Oxford, the University of Sussex, and the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta. He served as Vice Chancellor of the University of Delhi, and as Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India. He has published widely in academic journals. His books include Catch Up: Developing Countries in the World Economy (Oxford University Press 2013).
Siddiqur Rahman Osmani is a professor of development economics at Ulster University, UK. He has published widely on issues related to employment, poverty, inequality, hunger, famine, nutrition, the human rights approach to development, globalization, microcredit, and development problems in general.
Daniel Poon is Economic Affairs Officer in the Division of Globalization and Development Strategies (GDS) in UNCTAD. His research focuses on industrial policy strategy in Asia with a focus on East Asia, and in particular China. He has also published in the area of development finance, and South–South economic co-operation.
Frances Stewart is Emeritus Professor of Development Economics, University of Oxford. Her prime research interests are horizontal inequalities, conflict, and human development. Among many publications, she is leading author of Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies, and of Human Development: Theory and Practice.
Finn Tarp is a professor of development economics, University of Copenhagen, and was Director of UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, 2009–2018. His field experience covers more than two decades of in-country work in thirty-five countries across Africa, and the developing world more generally. Professor Tarp’s research focus is on issues of development strategy and foreign aid, with an interest in poverty, income distribution and growth, micro- and macroeconomic policy and modelling, agricultural sector policy and planning, and household and enterprise development. He has published widely and has extensive research and advisory experience in Vietnam. In addition to his university positions, he has held senior posts and advisory positions within governments and with donor organizations, and he is member of a large number of international committees and advisory bodies. In 2015, he was knighted by Queen Margrethe II of Denmark with the Order of the Dannebrog.
C. Peter Timmer is an authority on agricultural development, food security, and the world rice economy, and has published scores of papers and books on these topics. He has served as a professor at Stanford, Cornell, three faculties at Harvard, and the University of California, San Diego. He is currently the Cabot Professor of Development Studies, emeritus, at Harvard University. In 2012 he was awarded the Leontief Prize for advances in economic thought, and in 2014 delivered the 18th Annual WIDER Lecture at the UN in New York.
Rolph van der Hoeven is Professor Emeritus, Employment and Development Economics at the International Institute of Social Studies (ISS), Erasmus University (EUR), The Hague. He is also member of the Committee on Development Cooperation of the International Advisory Council (AIV) of the Dutch Government and of several other
Dutch development organizations. Earlier he was Director Policy Coherence and Manager of the Technical Secretariat of the World Commission on the Social Dimension of Globalization at ILO Geneva. Other positions included Chief Economist of UNICEF in New York and policy analyst for the ILO in Ethiopia and Zambia. He is widely published in the area of employment, inequality, globalization, and global governance.
Rob Vos is Director of Markets, Trade and Institutions at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). He is also Professor of Finance and Development at the International Institute of Social Studies, The Hague. Previously, he has held positions at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as Director of Agricultural Development Economics and at the United Nations as Director of Development Policy Analysis. He has published widely on issues of international trade and finance, poverty, sustainable development, and food security.
Robert H. Wade is a professor of global political economy at the London School of Economics. He is the author of Irrigation and Agricultural Politics in South Korea (Westview Press 1982); Village Republics: Economic Conditions for Collective Action in South India (Westview Press 1989); and Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization (Princeton University Press 2004). The latter was awarded Best Book or Article in Political Economy Prize from the American Political Science Association. He was awarded the Leontief Prize in Economics in 2008.
Guanghua Wan is Director and Professor, Institute of World Economy, Fudan University. Previously, he was Research Director and Head of Poverty and Inequality Group, Asian Development Bank. Prior to ADB, he was a senior economist in the United Nations and has taught in a number of Universities in Australia and China. Trained in development economics and econometrics, he is a multi-award-winning scholar on the Chinese economy and an expert on Asia, with a publication record of more than 100 professional articles and a dozen or so books, including two by Oxford University Press. He is an honorary professor of over ten top institutions in China.
Chen Wang is an associate professor at the Institute of Finance and Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and a research fellow at the Department of Economics of Leiden University. Her research interests include income inequality, poverty, consumption, and economics of aging. She has published papers in refereed journals, such as Journal of Economic Surveys, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Journal of Social Policy, Social Indicators Research, The World Economy, China Economic Review, and International Journal of Social Welfare.
Kiryl Zach is a PhD candidate in the Centre of Development Studies, University of Cambridge. His main research interest is the study of industrial policy of Poland. He is investigating changes and continuities of various policy strategies, principles and driving motives for industrialization in the three seemingly altogether separate periods—inter-war period, post-Second World War communism, and the post-1989 neo-liberal turn.
