ATreatiseonNorthern Ireland
BRENDANO ’ LEARY
GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom
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ToAnna,HanaandLeila,mydaughters,whoknowhowto negotiate,andwhoconfirmthatthisskillisnotconfined tothosewhowouldclaimtobepurelyIrish.
Preface
Thepassageoftenmonthssincethetypescriptofthistreatisewassenttothe publishershasobligednorevisionsofitsconcludingarguments.Peacecontinues inNorthernIrelandaccordingtoanyinternationalorpoliticalsciencedefinition. Thoughtherearestillshootings,bombings,paramilitaryassaults,andarrestsof loyalistsandrepublicans,allsuchindicatorsareindramaticallylowerregisters thanbeforetheGoodFridayAgreementof1998.ThePoliceServiceofNorthern IrelandreleaseditsannualstatisticsinOctober2018coveringtheperioduntil September2018.Twopeoplediedin2017–18inkillingsattributed “tothesecurity situation, ” thecustomaryadministrativeeuphemism;thenumberisjustbelowthe annualaveragedeathratesince2008–9of2.5personsperannum.Peacetherefore continues,thoughitisnotguaranteed.
Slowdemographicchangecontinuestoextrudeintolocalpoliticalgeography, shapingschoolopeningsandclosures,residentialhousingmarketsanddisputes overaccesstopublichousing,andcontroversiesoverelectoraldistricting.Inthese extrusionsmaybetracedthefadedhegemonyofUlsterunionists.OfficialratificationthatUlsterProtestants,howeverdefined,haveceasedtobeamajorityin NorthernIrelandawaitsthe2021census,thoughfornowtheregionhasthree politicalminorities,nationalists,unionists,andothers.Itseemslessprobablethan itoncewasthatthisconfigurationofinter-groupsizeswillstabilizeintoanew equilibrium.Insteaditseemsincreasinglyprobablethatareversalofstatuslooms: UlsterunionistswillsoonbelessnumerousthanNorthernnationalists,and, strikingly,therecentpolicypositionsofunionistpartiesmayacceleratethat trend,becauseoftheimpacttheywillhaveonculturalCatholicswhohaveso faridentifiedas “others.”
Since2017theDUPhasovertlysupportedaminorityConservativegovernment inLondon,intentonexitfromtheEU.TheresaMay’scabinet’snegotiationswith theEU27,thusfar,havehadspectacularlyhumiliatingconsequences.Theyhave resembledchargesofverylightbrigadesagainsttheentrenchedcannonsofthe EU,andsomehavestartedtoreasonwhy.TheConservative–DUPparliamentary alliancehasmagnifiedthedisarrayamongtheUK’snegotiators.TheDUP’ s posturehasnotreflectedthepopularwillinNorthernIreland,whereamajority votedtoremainintheEUin2016,amajorityincreasinglyreinforcedinsizeas knowledgeofthepossibleconsequencesofUKEXITspreads.Ulsterunionist partiesandtheirvotersdividedoverthekeyquestion.Mostbackedleavingthe EU,butaveryhighproportionhavehadsecondthoughtsaboutitsrepercussions, ashiftthathasnotbeenreflectedintheposturesofthecurrentDUPleadership.If theremustbeaUKEXIT,mostunionistshavesignaledthattheypreferasoftone; thatis,theywanttheentiretyofGreatBritainandNorthernIrelandtostaywithin theEuropeancustomsunionandthesinglemarket,andtherebyavoidthe creationoffreshborderinfrastructure,eitheralongtheUKborderinIrelandor intheIrishSea.Thisjudgmentissupportedbyasocialscientificsurveyofthe NorthernIrelandpublicandadeliberativeforumco-organizedbytheauthor. PrincipalinvestigatorJohnGarry,KevinMcNicholl,JamesPow,andIreported theresultsinspring2018,andpresentedthemtoBritish,Irish,andEUofficials.
Theresultsareconsistentwiththeargumentselaboratedintheconcluding chapterofthisvolume.Twowereheadlinedinthepress.ThosepreferringNorthernIrelandtoremainwithintheEUhadrisentonearly70percent,comparedto the56percentwhovotedthatwayintheJune2016referendum.And,ahardexit fromtheEU,definedasleavingtheEuropeancustomsunionandthesingle market,wouldalmostdoubletheprobabilitythatNorthernCatholicswillfavor Irishreunification.Thedataandanalysis,sponsoredbytheUK’sEconomicand SocialResearchCouncil,werepublishedin NorthernIrelandandtheUK’sExit fromtheEU:WhatDoPeopleThink?EvidencefromTwoInvestigations:ASurvey andaDeliberativeForum (Belfast:QueensUniversityBelfast&TheUKina ChangingEurope,2018).Aparalleljudgment flowsfromaYouGovonlinepoll, conductedfortheBBC,andreportedinJune2018.ItshowedIrish(58.6percent), NorthernIrish(57.9percent),andEuropean(56.7percent)identifiersoutnumberingBritishidentifiers(46.7percent)inNorthernIreland,withoveraquarterof respondentsaffirmingthattheUK’sdecisiontoleavehasmadethemmorelikelyto voteforaunitedIreland.Lessthan50percentidentifiedasBritish,aresult unimaginablein1968,andnotthemostprobableofprojectionsin1998.
Northernnationalists,notablySinnFéinanditssupporters,maybecomethe keyplayersindecidingwhethertheNorthernIrelandAssemblyisrestored,and, induecourse,whetherandwhentherewillbeareferendumonIrishreunification. Thelatersuchareferendumisheld,intheauthor’sview,thegreatertheprobabilitythattherewillbeadecisivevoteforIrishreunification.SinnFéin’ s enthusiastswillseekanearlyreferendum,buttheywouldbeunwisetodoso. WaitingfortheReferendum will,however,becomethenewcanopyunderwhich NorthernIrelandpoliticsunfolds.AsecondScottishindependencereferendum, andasecondreferendumontheUK’sEUmembership,mayyetprecedeoneon Irishreunification.Intheinterim,thefateoftheinstitutionsoftheGoodFriday Agreementwillremainundecided.Thattheassemblywillnotberestoredbefore theUK’sscheduledexitfromtheEUinMarch2019lookscertain.KeyDUP leadersre-advertisethattheyneversupportedtheGoodFridayAgreement thoughtheyacceptedtheStAndrewsAgreementthatamendeditwithinthe rulesofamendmentoftheGoodFridayAgreement.SofarPeterRobinson’splain post-retirementwarningstohispartyhavebeenstudiouslyignored.
ConfidenceintherobustnessoftheGoodFridayAgreementhastherefore fallen;ithadalreadybeendentedbytheevidencepresentedinthelatterpartof thisvolume.Thisjudgmentisobligedbycurrentevidence,eventhough,quite remarkably,theentiretyoftheEU,aswellasthegovernmentsoftheUKand Ireland,arenowpledgedtothepreservationoftheGoodFridayAgreement “inall itsparts.” Thispledge,however,isimpossibletomaintain,ifunderstoodliterally. IfandwhentheUKleavestheEU,therewillhavetobemodi ficationstotheGood FridayAgreementanditsUKandIrishlegislativeenactments,asisexplainedin Chapter3.7.ItistruethattheBritish –IrishIntergovernmentalConference (B–IIGC)hasbeenrevived,atIrishinsistence,and,asforetoldandprescribedin thisvolume.Butithasmetjustonce,inJuly2018,withovertreluctanceandpoor gracedisplayedbyUKPrimeMinisterMay.Themeetingwaswithoutmajor output.FurtherpressurefromIrelandtomaketheB–IIGCamoremeaningful policyforumcanbeexpectediftheassemblyandexecutivearenotrestored. WecanalsoexpectpushbackfromConservativesonthatfront,especiallyaslong
astheyneedDUPvotes.Conversely,wecanexpectanyfutureLabourgovernment inLondontoco-championtherevivaloftheB–IIGC.
Thatthepassageoftenmonthshasnotobligedanauthortoreviseormodify argumentsdevelopedandrefinedoverthirty-fiveyearsshouldbemuchless surprisingthanthefactthatnosignificantupdatinghasbeenrequiredbythe eventsof2018.ItisasifinthisintervalNorthernIrelandhasbeenhitbyanice storm.Whensuchastormemerges,roadsmaybecomeimpassable,especiallyif strongwindsaccompanythefreezingrain.Whenthefreezingrainaccumulateson surfacesandtheground,itcreatesaglazeofice,andwhenaquarterinchormore ofsuchiceaccumulatesontreebranches,powerlines,andpowerpoles,theymay beunabletowithstandthenewburdenthattheyareforcedtocarry.Theentire landscapefreezes,whilewisehumansstayindoors.Theyawaitthesun,orthe eventualmeltfromhighertemperatures,notyetknowingthescaleofdamagewith whichtheywillhavetocope.Whattheycanseefromsafety,however,isentirely familiar,andinsharperrelief.Butonlyafullthawwillrevealthecostofthestorm, possiblytriggeringsharpandabruptchanges,andcollapsesinfamiliarlandmarks.
NorthernIrelandwasnotpreparedforthepoliticalicestormthathitinthe summerof2016.Byearly2018,however,anefforttorestoretheassemblyandthe executiveemerged,onlytofailasitsurfaced.Speci fically,theDUPgotcoldfeeton makingconcessionstoSinnFéinrelatedtotheIrishlanguage.ArleneFoster evidentlyhadbeenseekingtoreturntothe firstminister ’sposition,butthe DUPwithdrewfromtheheavilyannotatedtextualagreementbecauseitsterms didnotsurvivereceptionbyitsWestminsterparliamentaryleadership,letalone itsgrassroots.Fosterlookedisolated.TheDUP’sWestminsterMPs,ledbyNigel Dodds,werehappierinasupply-and-confidencearrangementwiththeConservativesthaninsanctioningre-entryintocoalitiongovernmentwithSinnFéin. Politicallifein “theweesix” thereforeremainedsuspensefulandstalemated.The politicalchillwasintermittentlybrokenbyprophesiesofdisasterwhiletheparties awaitedthecollateraldamagefromtheUK’sprojectedsecessionfromthe EuropeanUnion.TheAlliance,theGreens,theSDLP,andSinnFéinremained ardentRemainersandlookedconfidentaboutEuropeanfutures,whileexasperatedattheirinabilitytobemetortakenseriouslybytheLondongovernment.By contrast,theDUP’spledgenevertoforsaketheblueskiesofUlsterforthegrey mistsofanIrishRepublicsoundedlikeabattlecryfromlongago,aswellasbeing poorlyinformedbymeteorologicalscience.TheDUPnowprofessedtoseeblue skiesaheadfromUKEXIT,whileitlookedsimultaneouslypetrifiedofanother prospectiveBritishbetrayal.LegislationisbeingpreparedatWestminster,as Iwrite,thatwillenablecivilservantsinNorthernIrelandtomakesomequotidian decisionsintheabsenceoftheNorthernexecutive.Thisrulebylocalbureaucrats willbebasedonacarefullegislativeefforttoavoidbreakingtheUK’streaty obligationswithIreland,andtoavoidviolatingtheGoodFridayAgreement a formallegislatedsuspensionoftheassemblyandexecutivewouldcertainlybe that,andcannotbecontemplatedastheUKseekstoleavetheEU.
ForovertwoyearstherepercussionsofUKEXIT,realandimagined,have filled theairwavesacrosstheIsles,Europe,andtheworld.Meanwhile,withinthe narrowerconfinesoftheNorth,theslowbutsteadypublicinquiryintothe RenewableHeatingInitiative,widelyknownas “thecashforash” scandal,has castanunflatteringsearchlightonFosterandotherkeyDUP figures,both
ministersandtheirspecialadvisors.Thescandalhasbeendescribedbythe Guardian’sIrelandcorrespondent,RoryCarroll,asjustlikethe “Gameof Thrones:thebigbudgetTVdrama filmedinNorthernIrelandwithasprawling plotinvolvingpower,pillage,and fire.Thereisavacantthrone,abeleaguered femaleleadersurroundedbybackstabbers,akingdomwithadeeptreasurechest acrosstheseaandtheriskthateverythingwillbereducedtoash.”¹Effortsbythe DUPtoshifttheblametocivilservantsfortheimbrogliohavenotbeenpersuasive,thoughthecivilservicehasnotemergedunscathedfromtheprobe.Key officialsadmit,forexample,nottohavetakenminutesofkeymeetings,allegedly atthebehestofDUPandSinnFéinministers.Theinquiry’sreportisyettobe delivered,butthepublicevidence-takinghasclosed.Thosewhohavewatchedand listenedtotheproceedingswillbeverysurprisedifthereport’sauthorsdonot exposeatleastsomemembersoftheDUPaspoorandcorruptgovernorsofthe publicpurse.WhetherSinnFéinwillemergefullyvindicatedremainstobeseen. Pro-unionistmediawillprobablyfocusonthefactthattheinquiry’schairhas alreadyportrayedrivaldepartments,headedbyDUPandSinnFéinministers,as opportunisticalleycats,engagedin fightingtheiroppositenumbersratherthan prioritizinggoodgovernment.Butitseemsprobablethatastrongwhiffofpetty kleptocracyamongtheDUP’sranksisscheduledforjudicialandjudicious indictment.Astheinquiryproceeded,theDUP’sdifficultiesweremagnified whenIanPaisleyJrwasexposedinyetanotherexpensesscandal,whichledon thisoccasiontohissuspensionfromtheHouseofCommons.Henarrowly avoided,undernewlyestablishedprocedures,becomingthe firstWestminster MPtoberecalledbyhisconstituencyandobligedtorestandinaspecialelection. Hewassparedthatembarrassmentsolelybecauseofanindefensibleadministrativedecisionthatmadeitfarmoredifficultformanyofhisconstituentstosignthe relevantpetitionthanitneedhavebeen.
Pettycorruptionwithintheranksofoneofitstwopremierpartiesofgovernmentisunfortunatelyaregrettablynormalphenomenonincontemporary democracies.ItdoesnotexplainwhyNorthernIrelandhasbeenrestoredtoglobal mediaattention.Itsconstitutionalandpoliticalstatushasbecomegloballyvisible againbecauseitisnowthekeyobstacletotheambitionsofthosewhoardently wanttheUKtoleavetheEU.Totheso-calledBrexiteers,theGoodFriday Agreementeitherdoesnot,orshouldnot,constraintheUK’sdeparturefrom theEU.SomeofthemaffectoutrageattheideathatonepartoftheUKmayend upbeingtreateddifferentlyfromanother,eventhoughtheGoodFridayAgreementisthestandingexampleofdifferentialconstitutionaltreatmentofone componentoftheUK.Withbrutalfrankness,somepollinghasdemonstrated thatalargeportionoftheEnglishandConservativepublicwhofavortheUK’ s departurefromtheEUsimplydonotcareifthatprocessisattheexpenseofthe GoodFridayAgreement.Others,however,thinkverydifferently.ThegovernmentsoftheEU27,andthoseinGreatBritainwhofavorremainingintheEU,are firmlyagreedthatNorthernIrelandisthesubjectofaninternationaltreaty,which theUKgovernmentshouldbeobligedtouphold evenifitisdeterminedtoleave theEU.Inthisjudgment,May’sfeet,andthatofhercabinetcolleagues,mustbe
¹ Guardian,September28,2018. x Preface
heldtothe fire:Britanniamaynotwaivetherulestowhichithassignedup,nor shoulditbeallowedtoresilefromthenegotiatingconcessionsthatitmadein December2017.
Beforethatlastmomentisbrieflyelaborated,oneminorupdateisrequired.The pasttenseisnowrequiredtodescribeBorisJohnsonastheUKForeignSecretary. HavingresignedinprotestagainstPrimeMinisterTheresaMay’scompromise proposalsforleavingtheEU theso-calledChequersPlanwasunveiledinJuly 2018 JohnsonhasstruggledtoavoidconsignmenttowhatTrotskyoncecalled thedustheapofhistory.ThatJohnson’sambitionexceedshisabilities,orhis willingnesstodohishomework,isnotworld-historicalnews,norapartisan judgment.Indeed,thesetraitsmayprovenoimpedimentstohisultimateascent tohisparty’sleadershipandtheUKpremiership.Whatmatters,forourpurposes, iswhatheexhibits,bothinhisimpatienceandinhisexpressionsofimpatience. Fornow,the “Irishbackstop ” isthetargetofhiswrath,theobjectthroughwhich hepresseshisclaimtobecomethebestguardianoftheUK’sexit.Thebackstopis theproposal,towhichMay’sgovernment,withJohnsoninhercabinet,agreedin December2017,insolemnundertakingswiththeEU’snegotiators,inorderto allowthewithdrawalnegotiationstoproceedtothenextstage.Asexplainedinthe concludingchapterofthisvolume,thebackstop,ifgivencrediblelegalframing, wouldprevent,forever,theerectionoffreshphysicalinfrastructureontheborder createdbythepartitionof1920.Shortofatechnologicalmiracle,itwouldapplyin allcircumstances evenifGreatBritainwerefullytoleavetheEU’scustoms unionandthesinglemarket.Johnsonisnotaloneincomplainingthatthe backstoppreventstheUKfromexitingtheEUonhispreferredterms,though histermsareinvariablyvague,romantic,andarticulatedinthefutureperfect tense.Hepersistentlygesturestowardtechnologicalsolutionstocustomsinspections,collectionregimes,andregulatorymonitorsthatarenotyetknowntopublic officialsorjournalists,butheisscarcelysingularinthisrespect.
CriticscannotdecidewhetherJohnsonadvocates “CanadaDry” or “Canada++,” shorthandexpressionsfordifferentwaysoftakingtheUKoutoftheEuropean singlemarketandcustomsunion,aswellasallofitsotherinstitutions.Withno formalwithdrawalagreementonthetermsofitssecessionfromtheEU,theUK wouldheadtoward “CanadaDry”—namely,ahardandcliff-edgeexit,asthesaying goes.Bycontrast,withaformalwithdrawalagreementandapromisedfuture “specialrelationship” withthesinglemarket,theUKmayaccomplish “Canada ++”—namely,ahardexitwithatransitionperiodbeforeatradeagreementis completedwiththeEU.AsIwrite,effortsarebeingmadebyMaytolengthen andsoftenthattransition,andtoavoidthebackstopbeingmadepermanent.The latterwillbestoutlyresistedbyIreland,especiallybyitsTaoiseach,LeoVaradkar, anditsTánaiste,SimonCoveney,and,Irelandassumes,bytheEU26.
Nearlyonehundredyearsago,assurveyedinVolume2ofthistreatise,Canada wasanambiguousrolemodelforthefutureIrishFreeStateinthenegotiations concludedundertheauspicesofPrimeMinisterDavidLloydGeorgeforGreat Britain,andoftheVice-PresidentofSinnFéin,ArthurGriffith.TodayCanadaisa muchmoreambiguousrolemodel.Itisseenasabeaconforthosewould-be Britishpolicymakerswhodisbelievethatitisusuallymoreefficienttotradewith one ’simmediateneighborsthanwiththosewholiveandproducefurtherafield. The firstBritishdominion,partlybuiltbyEnglishandScotssettlers,hasrecently
completedatradeagreementwiththeEU,knownasCETA,theComprehensive EconomicandTradeAgreement itwassignedinOctober2016.Itspartiesare theEU,itsmemberstates,andCanada.Overtwodecadesinthemaking,the CETAwasconcludedaftersevenyearsofnegotiations.Thisnegotiatinghistory, especiallyitslength,ischeerfullyignoredbyadvocatesoffollowing “theCanada option ” forUKEXIT.TheypointoutthattheUKconformsfornowtoEUlaws andregulations,andtherefore,theyreason,makingaUKCETAshouldbemuch easierandfasterthanthemakingoftheCETA.Buttheself-styledBexiteers frequentlythoughconvenientlyfailtoobservethatthereasontheypreferthe CanadaoptionispreciselybecausetheywanttodivergefromEUlawsand regulations.ThisopenlyexpressedambitionalonemakesafastUKCETAmuch lessprobable.TheEUhasdiplomaticallypointedtotheCETAasonelogicalmodel forfuturerelationsbetweentheEU27andtheUK,especiallyiftheEUisexpected totaketheLondongovernmentatitsword namely,thatitwantstobeableto makeitsownfreetradeagreementswithothercountries.But,noEUofficialwhom Ihavemetorinterviewedin2017–18expectsorpromisesthataUKCETAwillbe quicklyoreasilynegotiated.Giventhetimespentinnegotiatingtheso-farunconcludedwithdrawalagreement,experiencesuggeststhatitisEUofficialswhoare makingthesounderjudgmentaboutthespeedoffuturenegotiations.
In1921theWelshmanLloydGeorgeandhisEnglishLiberalandConservative partnersinsistedthatIrelandhadtoremainwithintheBritishEmpire.Ifit secededfromtheUKtobecomeadominionwiththesamestatusasCanada, thenitwouldhavetograntNorthernIrelandtherightofsecessionfromtheIrish FreeState(subjecttoaboundarycommission).In2018,theEU’schiefnegotiator, MichelBarnier,insiststhat,ifthereistobeawithdrawalagreementwiththeUK, andanagreedpoliticaldeclarationoverfuturerelationsbetweentheUKandthe EU,thentherehastobewatertightandpermanentlegalprovisionsthatprevent freshinfrastructureacrosstheUKlandborderinIreland,ineffectkeeping NorthernIrelandwithintheEU’ssinglemarketandthecustomsunion.In 2016–18,aswastruein1919–21,talkofCanadawasintheairpartlybecauseof therecognition,insistence,ordenialthatNorthernIrelandshouldbetreated differently.ForBarnier’snegotiatingteam,withthefullauthorityoftheEU27, shortoftechnologicaltransformations,theIrishbackstophastoapply,especially ifGreatBritainlaterinsistsonhavingarelationshipwiththeEUmodeledonits formerNorthAmericancolony thatis,outsidethesaidcustomsunionand singlemarket.LloydGeorgekepttheIrishFreeStateintheBritishEmpireona CanadianmodelandNorthernIrelandwithintheUK;bycontrast,MichelBarnier maykeepNorthernIrelandwithinthesinglemarketandcustomsunionoftheEU whilefreeingGreatBritaintopursueitsCanadiandream.IftheDUPsucceedsin blockingthispossiblecompromise,itmayhavetodosoattheexpenseof precipitatingahardandcliff-edgeexit,fromwhichGreatBritain,Ireland,and NorthernIrelandwillsuffer,probablyinthatorderofmagnitudeofpain.Weshall seewhosebluffiscalled.
Johnson’ssuccessorasUKForeignSecretary,fornow,isJeremyHunt.Atthe ConservativePartyConferenceofOctober2018hecomparedtheEUtothe USSR.ThesuggestionmetwithfrankastonishmentbyambassadorsfromEast Europeanmemberstateswhohadgrownupbehindtheironcurtain.Theywere nottemptedtosmile.Fewofthem,however,couldhavehadhigherdiplomatic
expectationsofHuntthanhisimmediatepredecessor.Hunt,afterall,hadrecently managedtodescribehisChinesewife,LuciaGuo,asJapaneseinthecourseof exchangingpleasantrieswithhisChinesehosts.Inshortorder,aUKforeign secretarywhodisplaysbigotedimpatiencewiththeIrish,andwhodenigrates otherEuropeans,hasbeenreplacedbyonewhonervouslygetsspectacularly wrongboththeethnicityofhisownwifeandtheethnichistoriesofhisprincipal interlocutors.Thesepresentationalproblemsarenotjustthestandardproblemof arrogantmaleswhorefusetolistenorlearn,orwhoassumethatothersarenot competenttoassesstheirownhistoriesandinterests.Rather,theyaresymptomaticofacrisisofprofessionalgravitasamongthecurrentConservativeleadership.
Thesyndromeisequallyevidentamongfemalepoliticians,andnotjustMay andFoster.ThenewestoccupantoftheroleofHerMajesty’sPrincipalPrivate SecretaryofStateforNorthernIrelandisKarenBradleyMP.Noevidencehad emergedtoevaluateherministerialworthwhenthisvolumewasdrafted,sothe textthatfollowsavoidedprematurejudgment.Wenowknowalittlemore, however,aboutthislatestincumbentofalittle-sought-afterrole.Bradleyhasa BAinMathematicsfromImperialCollegeLondonandwasaprofessionaltax accountantinapreviouslife.Sheisthereforehighlynumerate.Yetsheplainly tooknoopportunitytolearnimperialhistoryatheralmamater.InSeptember 2018shetold House magazine,theweeklycircularofthemotherofparliaments,of herignoranceofNorthernIrelandbeforeMayhadassignedhertohernewrole.
“Ididn’tunderstandthingslikewhenelectionsarefought,forexample,inNorthern Ireland,peoplewhoarenationalistsdon’tvoteforunionistpartiesandviceversa.So theparties fightfortheelectionwithintheirowncommunities Thatisavery differentworldfromtheworldIcamefrom.” Indeed,SecretaryofState.What, however,wasthemorereprehensibleinBradley’sadmission?Notknowingthese elementarypoliticalfactsaboutNorthernIrelandbeforeherappointment,orbeing entirelyunembarrassedaboutsubsequentlyrevealingherignoranceonthismatter inapublicinterviewthatwouldbereadbyherpeers?
Johnson,Hunt,May,andBradleyareamongthelatestinalineofEnglish politicianslargelyobliviousofBritain’shistoryinIreland,andinsensitivetothe potentialpitfallsthattheirignorancemaytrigger.AtthismomentinBritish–Irish relationsitmayseemaptthat figuresfromaPunchandJudyshoware flitting acrossthefrozenstage.Afterall,negotiatingUKEXIT,sofar,resemblesfarce.But tiresomeandrepetitivefarceisnotlaughinducing,andthisfarcecannotlast forever.ThelastritesmaysoonbeperformedonEnglishimperialdelusions,atthe handsofaFrenchmanfromcentralcasting.TheMaygovernmentmaysurrender totheEU,tobefollowedinturnbytheConservativepartyatWestminster,and theymayhaveenoughLabourMPstojointheminsteamrollingtheDUP’ s resistancetotheUK’ssurrendertoBrusselsandtheEU27.IfMaydoesnot surrender,however,thentheUKisprogrammedforahardandcliff-edgeexitthat shedoesnotwant,andforwhichhergovernmentandcountryareill-prepared. Unabletomoveineitherdirection,MaycouldprovetobewhatGeorgeOsborne hasinfamouslydescribedheras, “adeadwomanwalking. ” Shemayyetbedowned inaninternalConservativeheave.Buttheremayalsobenoparliamentary majorityforanyoftheoptionsfacingtheUK ahardandcliff-edgeexitwith nobackstop(theBorisbluff);asoftexitthatlockstheUKpermanentlyintothe customsunionandthesinglemarket,makingthebackstopredundant(the
Hammondhalt);orawithdrawalagreementthatcodifiesandentrenchesthe backstop(theBarnierbelt).Inthatcase,theimpassemayhavetobebrokenby ageneralelectionintheUKand/orbyasecondreferendumonwithdrawingfrom theEU.Weshallhavetosee.
NorthernIrelandisintheeyeofthisdiplomatic,parliamentary,andpublic storm.Tobefairtoallofitsresidents,theydidnotasktobeputthere.Serious BritishpoliticiansforesawthatavoteforUKEXITwouldproducetheoutcomes thatareunfolding.Unfortunately,thecentristex-primeministers,JohnMajor andTonyBlair,whodeliveredthesewarnings,jointly,wereignored,anddismissedbylightweightssuchasTheresaVilliersandOwenPatterson.Northern IrelandcouldhavebeenremovedfromthediplomaticstormhadtheDUP leadershipchosentoseeanopportunitytoprotecttheirconstituentsthrough exceptionaltreatmentunderEUtreatiesandUKlaws,ratherthantodeema differentiatedUKEXITasamortalthreat.Theychosetoseeadramaticthreatto theirBritishness,andthendramatizedthatthreat.Inconsequence,theymayhave unintentionallyendangeredtheirlong-termtiestotheBritishstate,bydenying EnglishConservativestheirfreedom.Intheinterim,thediplomaticworldof Europehasbeenreintroducedtothepoliticsofantagonismbirthedinthe colonizationofUlster.TheoverwhelmingbulkofthedescendantsoftheIrish nativesnowardentlyfavortheEuropeanUnion,whiletheleadersoftheprogeny ofBritishsettlersstronglyfavorBrexit thoughmostoftheirlocalfollowershope itcanbeaccomplishedverysoftly,andwithminimaldisturbance.
ThestormfromUKEXIThasstalledtheimaginative,painfullyconstructed,but alreadytroubledconsociationalpower-sharingsettlementratifiedbythereferendumsof1998.Asthediplomaticstormbearsdowninthe fivemonthsbeforethe UK’sscheduledexitdateofMarch29,2019,inwhatwillprobablybeitsmost intensephase,NorthernIrelandhasnoofficialvoiceatanynegotiatingtable. Irelandspeaksforitspro-remainmajority,whileArleneFoster,whoholdsno officialnon-partyoffice,speaksof “blood-red” lines.SinnFein,sofar,wisely remainslargelyquiet,astheDUPsurgestowardwhatmostreasonableeconomists regardasaneconomicquagmire.
Theseunfoldingdevelopmentsunderlineaconsistentthemeofthistreatise. WhatisexogenoustoNorthernIreland,especiallybutnotonlyGreatBritainand Ireland,decisivelyshapesandreshapesthepatternofinter-grouprelations first forgedincolonialUlster.Conflictandconflictregulationareshapedfromoutside, notjustwithin,andexternalshocks,especiallydeteriorationsinBritish –Irish relations,candamagesignificantlyimprovedinter-grouprelations.Consociations can flourishiftheyhaveexternalsupport;theymaywitherifthatsupportdiminishesorends.Anotherconsistentthemeisunderlinedbythesedevelopments namely,theslowerosionsince1886,puncturedbydramaticconjunctures,of Britishhegemony,authority,andinfluenceoverIrelandandNorthernIreland. NobetterevidenceofthattrendisNorthernIreland’sstatusasanobstacletoa straightforwardBritishexitfromtheEU.GreatBritaincannotrideherdonits creation,NorthernIreland,evenwhenitsownvitalinterestsareatstake;Ireland, bycontrast,canmobilizetherestoftheEUtoprotectthetreatyandagreement overNorthernIrelandthatitmadejointlywithGreatBritain.
Thefuturecannotbewrittenwithcertainty,butitcanpartlybeforetold,and predictionsandprophesiescansubsequentlybetestedbytheacidicevidenceof
history.InasurveyofIrelandpublishedinJanuary1988,entitled “ThePoorestof theRich,” TheEconomist predictedacatastrophiceconomicfuturefortheemeraldisle.IrelandwasattemptingtodevelopaEuropeanwelfarestatewithout sufficientwealthtounderpinit:FrancesCairncrosswasquotedtotheeffectthat poorIrelandhadbehavedasifitwasrichandwouldnowpaytheprice.InMay 1997,however,thesamemagazinerananissuecaptioned “TheCelticTiger: Europe’sShiningLight,” celebratinganIrishgrowthmiraclethatwouldlater culminateinanestimatedgrowthinGDPofapproximately230percentin thetwodecades1987–2007(comparedwithjustover150percentintheUK inthesameperiod).InOctober2004 TheEconomist followedupwithanother issuecalled “TheLuckoftheIrish.” ItattributedmuchofIreland’seconomic successintheprecedingtwodecadestoone-offcatch-upchanges forexample, increasedworkplaceparticipation,especiallybywomen;ayoungerpopulation andlaborforcethantheEuropeanaverage;andEUsubsidieswortharound 0.5percentayearofadditionalgrowthduringthe1990s.Tobefair,the flagship ofneoliberaleconomicsgavesomecredittoIreland’spolicymakersandpolicies aquasi-corporatistsocialpartnershipbetweengovernment,business,andtrade unionsthathelpedkeepinflationlowerandemploymenthigher; fiscaland monetaryconsolidationbeforethearrivaloftheEuro;enthusiasticembraceof theEU’ssinglemarketprogram;thesustainedcommitmenttoattractingforeign, especiallyUS,directinvestmentthroughafocusonlowcorporatetaxratesand providinganeverbetter-educatedworkforce,especiallyininformationtechnology,engineering,medicine,andthebio-sciences.Lastly,Ireland’sreductioninthe taxburdenonitsworkforceboosteddomesticdemandandencourageditsskilled workersandprofessionalstostayratherthanemigrate.
TheEconomist,andothers,werenotwrong,however,topointtovulnerabilities intheIrisheconomy notably,membershipoftheEuromeantthatIreland experiencedinterest-ratecutsatthetopofitseconomicboom,encouragingan unsustainablepropertybubble,radical financialrisk-taking,andtheoverexposureofitsbankstodomesticandforeigndebtors.Thegreatcrashof2008, inwhichIreland’sGDPshrankby4percent,andthenbyafurther5percentthe followingyear,seemedtosignaladecisiveendtoIreland’srunofgoodluck. Ireland’sbanksandshadowbankshadtobebailedout.TheIrishstatehadtobe bailedoutbytheEU,theECB,andtheIMF,anditsbudget-makingsupervised duringahumiliatingsuspensionofitseconomicsovereignty.Publicdebtand unemploymentsky-rocketed,whilethecountryonceagainbecameanetexporter ofpeople.Yet,remarkably,theIrisheconomyhassincestagedastunningrecovery. Itisoneofthefewcasesinrecentcomparativeeconomichistoryinwhich borrowingreductions,spendingcuts,and fiscalcontractionhaverestabilizeda country’spublic financesinshortorder,tobefollowedbysignificantfreshgrowth. By2017Ireland’sestimatedGDPpercapitastoodatover$68,000comparedtothe UK’sestimateofover$39,000;Ireland’spublicdebtpercapitastoodat$47,000 comparedtotheUK’s$34,300;Ireland’spublic-sectordeficitasapercentageofits GDPstoodat –0.30percentcomparedwiththeUK’ s –1.9 percent;andIreland’ s unemploymentrateinSeptember2018of5.4percentcomparedwiththeUK’ s estimated4percent.Ireland’seconomyhadtrulybouncedback.SuchGDP comparisonsandestimatescangiveastrikinglydistortedevaluationofIreland’ s economicperformance,soitisbesttorelyonmoresoberGrossNationalIncome
comparisons,adjustedforPurchasingPowerParity.In2017,however,theWorld Bank’sstaffestimatedIreland’sGNIPPPat$61,910,justhigherthanthatofthe USA,andsignificantlyaheadoftheUK’s$42,560.
Thereareatleasttworeasonswhytheseupdatedeconomicdatamatterforthe futureofthesubjectsconsideredinthisvolume.Theysuggest, first,thattheIrish economycanwithstandthenegativerepercussionsthatmay flowfromahardand cliff-edgeUKEXIT,andthatithassuf ficientresourcesandrobustnesstomakethe structural,logistical,andtransportationadjustmentsthatanyUKEXITmaymake necessary.IrelandcanexpectsomesolidarityfromitsEUpartnersifthisscenario comestopass,butitneednotrelyuponit.Secondly,itsuggeststhat,whetherthe futurebringsforthacliff-edgeUKEXIT,oronewithafeather-bedlanding,or indeedareversalofUKEXIT,sovereignIrelandwillbeabletoaffordIrish reunification,andthatboththeNorthandSouthwillstandtogainmaterially fromdoingso.WhetherIreland’svoterswillsupportreunificationinanyreferendumsubsequenttooneheldintheNorthisanothermatter.Theauthorwould expecttheDublinregiontohavethehighestnumberofvoterswhowouldtick ‘No’ toreunification,butalsoexpectstherestofIrelandtovotestronglyto overturntherepercussionsofcenturiesofconquest.Yet,ifIrishreunificationis tohappen, ’twerebestifitweredonewithpreparation.
AnewministryforIrishnationalreuni ficationandreconciliationwouldnotbe premature.Its firstplanningagendashouldincludealongconstitutionalconventiontoaddressthenewinstitutionalconfigurations,territorialorder,andprotectionsofminorityrightsthatwouldberequiredtomakeasuccessofreunification, andhowNorthernerscouldparticipateintheremakingoftheisland.Thisvista,of course,willrevivelanguagefromdownthecenturies,andtrackedthroughout thesevolumes.Warningsofaloyalistbacklashorforelashwillrenttheair.Yet,if andwhenareferendumiswonbyadvocatesofIrishreunification,itismost unlikelythatBritishregimentswillbedeployedindefactoalliancewithloyalist militias asoccurredin1920,andagainafter1970.AnIreland,moreover,that hasprepareditsconstitutionanditsinstitutionswithproper,prudent,and consultativeforesightmaybeabletoreunifywithitslostcountieswithminimal threattoanyhumanlife.Thoughothermalignvistascannotbeexcluded including thosethatstartwithpremisesbasedonAlbion’srecordoftreaty-breaking theone justbrieflysketchedseemsfarlikelierthanatanyprevioustimeinthisauthor’slife. AsIclosethecompositionofthisPreface,ithasbeenofficiallyannouncedthat Ireland’sConstitutionhasbeenamendedoncemore.Itsblasphemylaws,under whichnoonewaseverconvicted,havebeenremovedwithpopularassent,and PresidentMichaelD.Higgins,ademocraticsocialistandapoliticalscientist,hasbeen electedtoasecondterminoffice.Ireland’spoliticscurrentlycontinuetomovetoa differentandwarmerrhythmthaninmanyotherdemocracies,wherebleakintimationsoffascismarepalpable.ForNorthernIreland,voluntarily,tojoininIreland’ s positivetransformations,withsignificantsupportfromamongitsProtestantpopulation,wouldcertainlyentitleotherstocomplainoftheluckoftheIrish.
BrendanO’Leary
Philadelphia October2018
3.1.ConceptualConspectus:ConsociationandArbitration1
3.2. “No.PleaseUnderstand ”:TheReturntoImperialDirectRule andtheLimitstoBritishArbitration,1972
3.3.AnExperimentinCoerciveConsociation:TheMaking,Meaning(s), andOutcomesoftheAnglo-IrishAgreement,1985
3.4.ATractofTimebetweenWarandPeace:MeldingNegotiations andaPeaceProcess,andtheMakingoftheBelfastandthe British –
–
3.5.TheMaking,Meaning(s),andTasksofthe1998Agreement175
Appendix3.5.1.TheElectionofDavidTrimbleandMarkDurkan asFirstMinisters
Appendix3.5.2.ContraHorowitzandLijphart,List-PR,STV(PR), theAlternativeVote,andNorthernIreland
3.6.TheLongNegotiation:TheTribunesBecomeConsuls,2002–2016230 FromStormontgatetoVoluntaryDisbanding:TwistsandTurnsin
3.7.ConfederalandConsociationalFutures290
–June2017)
ListofFigures
