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Bangla sanglap (Issue16/16)

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Desk report:

Families of failed asylum seekers will be offered up to £40,000 to leave the UK under a trial scheme announced by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.Mahmood said the government would seek to forcibly remove failed asylum seekers if they do not accept "incentive payments" of up to £10,000 per person, capped at four per family, within seven days.

The scheme is expected to target about 150 families living in taxpayer-funded accommodation, and the Home Office estimates it could save £20m if successful.However, the Conservatives and Reform UK said the payments would incentivise people to come to the UK illegally.Mahmood unveiled the scheme as she sought make the "Labour case" for restricting support to some asylum seekers in a speech to a left-leaning think tank on Thursday.

The government already runs a voluntary returns programme, under which

Failed asylum seeker families to be offered up to £40k to leave UK

asylum seekers who choose to leave the UK can receive up to £3,000 in financial support.

Mahmood said housing a family of three in asylum accommodation costs up to £158,000 per year.

The home secretary said the

UK government wanted to offer an "increased incentive payment" that will represent a "significant saving to the taxpayer", in an echo of reforms introduced in Denmark. Mahmood said the government was consulting

on how to remove families with children who refuse to leave voluntarily "in a way that is humane and effective".

"For too long, families who have failed their claims have known that we are not enforcing our rules, which

created a perverse incentive to make a Channel crossing with children in a small boat it," she added.

Refugee and Migrant Children's Consortium, a coalition of 100 organisations, said it had concerns about the plans, adding families would have "just a week to make a potentially life-changing decision" without "time to access legal advice".

"Cutting support for these families if they do not feel able to leave will simply result in more children being left homeless and destitute," the group said.

However, Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the payments were "an insult to the British taxpayer".

Reform UK has also suggested financial incentives for voluntary deportations, but the party's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf said £40,000 payments were "staggering" and "a prize for breaking in illegally".

MP's husband and two men bailed

after arrests over alleged China spying

Desk report:

Three men have been released on bail after being arrested on suspicion of spying for China, the Metropolitan Police said.

David Taylor, 39, married to East Kilbride and Strathaven MP Joani Reid, along with Matthew Aplin, 43, and Steve Jones, 68, are accused of assisting a foreign intelligence service.

Jones is a former Welsh Government special adviser and Aplin is a former Labour press officer. They were arrested by counter-terrorism officers at addresses in London and Wales on Wednesday.

Following Taylor's arrest, Reid said in a statement that she was "not part of" her husband's business activities and she had never seen anything to make her suspect he had "broken any law".

Taylor is a former adviser to Welsh Labour politicians and former Labour candidate to become North Wales police and crime commissioner.

He was arrested in London, Aplin in Pontyclun in south Wales, and Jones in the county of Powys in midWales.

Police searched the addresses of where the men were arrested, as well as properties in London, East Kilbride and Cardiff.

All three have been accused of assisting a foreign intelligence service under section three of the National Security Act, which was introduced in 2023 to target suspects accused of working against UK interests, the police added.

They have been bailed until a date in May, and enquiries remain ongoing.

The Met said they were supported by counterterror police in Wales and in Scotland.Commander Helen Flanagan, head of Counter Terrorism Policing London, said the force does not believe there to be "any imminent or direct threat" related to the arrests.

On Thursday, Commons

Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle sent an email to parliamentary staff warning the risks of Chinese spying "are not receding".

He reminded staff to look at the guidance in place on how to identify and report foreign state activity that targets Parliament.

"Recent cases have shown that foreign state actors still rely on traditional methods to obtain information, including

through recruiting of people to form relationships and provide information," Sir Lindsay said.

Security Minister Dan Jarvis told the Commons on Wednesday that the arrests related to alleged "foreign interference targeting UK democracy".

Sir Lindsay added that foreign state actors often target electronic devices and communications to gain information, and simple steps can be taken to make it harder for this to happen. He told staff that they were "a critical part of our defence against foreign state activity".

Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said in a statement on Thursday that she is aware of the arrests, and that the suspects have been released on bail.

"These are serious allegations and it is vital that we do not hamper the work of the police in any way or prejudice any future legal process," she added.

The arrests come weeks after Sir Keir Starmer visited Beijing, as the government looks to pursue a cautious reset of UK–China economic ties.

Desk report:

Iran's military has said it has targeted the headquarters of Iranian Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, stepping up strikes on Kurdish regions in both Iran and Iraq.

The military said it attacked "Kurdish groups opposed to the [Islamic] revolution in Iraqi Kurdistan with three missiles". One person was killed and three injured in the strikes on Tuesday and Wednesday, the BBC has confirmed.

Tehran is intensifying its attacks on Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq amid reports that US President Donald Trump wants them to join the fight against Iran, as US and Israeli strikes continue.

Kurdish Iranian opposition parties in Iraq have denied reports that some of their forces have crossed into Iran.

"This is not true. Do not believe it," said Hanna Hussein Yazdan Pana of the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK). "Not a single Peshmerga [fighter] has moved. No-one moves alone."

Iran targets headquarters of Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq

She said six Kurdish opposition groups - which recently formed a coalition - were co-ordinating their plans but needed the Americans to pave the way for a move. She told the BBC nothing would happen this week.

"It's not about the hours or days. We cannot move if the air above us is not cleaned. We need to see weapons

depots [of Iran's security forces] being destroyed. Otherwise, it would be suicidal."

Pana also called for a no-fly zone to provide protection for Kurdish forces.

"The regime is very brutal," she said, "and the most advanced weapon we have is a Kalashnikov."

There has been growing speculation that Trump

wants Kurdish forces to join the war, to provide boots on the ground.

The White House has denied a report that the president is considering arming them.

On Wednesday, the BBC visited the scene of the Iranian attack on attacks on two separate Kurdish opposition groups.

One base was hit by a ballistic missile at about

11:00 local time (08:00 GMT) on Wednesday, injuring four Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. One died later from his injuries.

One building at the base had been crushed, with rubble and twisted metal strewn over a wide area. There was also a hole in the ground, gouged out by a missile.

At another base - belonging to the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI)the BBC saw the aftermath of a double drone strike on Tuesday, which was said to have injured one civilian.

A senior political leader of the KDPI told the BBC he believed that the Kurds would be fighting in Iran soon - but did not give an exact timeline.

He would not comment on reports that Trump has spoken to the KDPI leader in recent days.

A fighter called Hassan, 25, armed with an AK-47, said he was eager to go to Iran to fight for freedom.

"We are closer than ever," he said.

Healey visits Cyprus after criticism of UK response to drone attacks

Desk report:

Defence Secretary John Healey has met his counterpart in Cyprus after criticism over the UK's response to drone attacks on the RAF base on the island.

Healey met Vasilis Palmas to discuss how UK was reinforcing air defences to support "our shared security," the PM's spokesman said.

Cyprus's High Commissioner to the UK

Dr Kyriacos Kouros told the BBC people had been "disappointed" with the information shared after the base was hit on Sunday night.

Downing Street rejected suggestions the government failed to have enough military assets in the Middle East after the base was hit.

The attacks on Cyprus came days after the USIsrael strikes on Iran on Saturday and retaliatory strikes by Iran.

Sir Keir Starmer told

reporters on Thursday protective measures at the airbase have always been in place.

"We pre-deployed further assets to Cyprus in January and February for that purpose and we're bolstering that," he said.

"I want to be really clear

to everybody in Cyprus that we are taking every measure that is needed to protect them, to protect the airbase along with the other places in the region."

The British warship HMS Dragon - which has air defence capabilities - is being sent to Cyprus but will not sail until next week.

Asked on Thursday if the UK was not fully prepared with the ship not yet in the Mediterranean, the prime minister's spokesman said: "I don't accept that. I think the fact is, operational questions, operational decision-making is always kept under review."

The spokesman was asked about reports that

the decision to send reinforcements to the region came weeks after the first US request to use UK bases for strikes against Iran. "I think we set out yesterday that our defensive capabilities have been deployed since January," he said.

"That includes air defence, radar systems and F-35 jets in Cyprus and Typhoons in Qatar."

Healey's visit to Cyprus on Thursday comes as the UK government warned the situation in the Middle East could last for months.

Minister Hamish Falconer told the Commons: "There are indications this is a crisis not of days but of weeks and possibly months" as he called on Iran to end the "reckless" strikes.

Responding, Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel said: "Britain cannot sit on the fence and our adversaries must know that we must not stand back when our allies are under such attack."

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Desk report:

South East Water is facing a £22m fine by the industry regulator for "multiple supply disruptions" that caused residents in Kent and Sussex "immense stress and anxiety".

Ofwat said company failures left it unable to cope during periods of high demand or extreme weather, leaving customers with no tap water, unable to shower or bathe, or flush their toilets.

The proposed fine applies to problems during 2020 and 2023 that affected more than 286,000 people and does not cover more recent incidents which left thousands of homes without water.

In response, South East Water said it had filed for a judicial review of Ofwat's draft decision and sought an injunction, which was rejected by the court.

"We are now considering Ofwat's draft decision and will respond via the appropriate channels, ahead of its final decision. We have no further comment at this time," the company said.

South East Water faces £22m fine for supply failures

Ofwat said South East Water's response to supply problems between 2020 and 2023 was "slow and disorganised", with shortages of bottled water and not enough tankers or support for vulnerable customers.

An investigation by the watchdog found the

company failed to plan sufficiently, learn from incidents - such as the socalled Beast from the East wave of cold weather in early 2018 - and conduct analysis to discover the root causes of the problems.

Ofwat also said South East Water failed to maintain key infrastructure such

of the Consumer Council for Water, said: "South East Water's failed attempts to stall this announcement risks inflicting further damage to customers' trust in the company and gives the impression its entire focus is not on improving the reliability of its water supply."

South East Water is facing a further investigation by Ofwat for major supply interruptions between November last year and January.

Last December up to 16,000 homes went without water for almost a week, while in January about 30,000 properties faced issues.

as service reservoirs, boreholes and major pipes.

"All of these issues left the system more likely to fail during prolonged dry periods or freeze thaw events as we have seen in Kent and Sussex on multiple occasions," said Ofwat. Mike

Asked why it had taken the regulator three years to conclude its probe into South East Water's earlier failures, Ofwat's interim chief executive Chris Walters told the BBC's Today programme: "Investigations do take time, especially investigations like this. "They involve a large amount of very complex, detailed engineering information that has to be very carefully assessed."

Protesters mourn Ayatollah at Manchester vigil

Desk report: Protesters mourned the death of Ayatollah Khamenei at a candlelit vigil in Manchester.

On Wednesday night, up to 100 people gathered for a memorial to the Iranian supreme leader, who was killed in an attack launched by Israel and the US last weekend.

Demonstrators were pictured burning images of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister. There were also clashes with counter-protesters who were celebrating the Ayatollah’s death in USIsraeli attacks on Tehran. The protests included some students from Ahlul-Bayt Islamic societies (AbSocs) –student-led groups affiliated with the dominant Shia sect of Islam in Iran.

Members of the AbSoc at the University of Manchester advertised the vigil in Sidney Street, five minutes from the university campus, as an event “honouring the Ayatollah”, however, the crowd is thought to have included many demonstrators who were not students.

One handwritten sign at the vigil read: “You can kill a man, but you can’t kill an ideology.” Another sign, propped up on a table that

was shrouded in a black cloth with a photograph of Khamenei, read: “My enemies have the support of each other to kill me, O Heart warming love ... I have only your support, loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei.”

A poster for the vigil said it was supported by the Friends of the Islamic Centre of Manchester.

It came amid mounting concerns about the spread of Islamism on university campuses, particularly in the aftermath of the October

7 Hamas attacks on Israel.

A report published at the end of 2024 found that antiSemitic abuse in British universities had reached record levels in the wake of the conflict.

On Friday, the University of Manchester’s AbSoc plans to hold a “commemorative” gathering to “remember the martyrs of the recent strikes”. An Instagram story shared by the society said a preplanned event, organised with a youth organisation at Alfurqan Islamic Centre

in Manchester, had been changed to a memorial event “due to the current circumstances”.

The update said: “We will remember the martyrs of the recent strikes, and a majalis for Imam Ali ibn Abu Talib will also take place.

Community members are kindly requested to bring a simple dish for iftar, as it will still be opened before the Majalis.”

Attendees at the Khamenei vigil were significantly outnumbered by 300 to

400 counter-protesters who gathered to celebrate his death and demonstrate in support of the freedom of the Iranian people.

Under Khamenei’s watch, thousands of anti-regime protesters were massacred at the start of this year. He also backed Bashar alAssad’s regime in Syria and provided support to Hezbollah and Hamas militants in Lebanon and Gaza.

The counter-protest included dancing and singing to tracks including the Village People’s YMCA, a song that has enjoyed a new wave of popularity after Donald Trump danced to it at several political rallies.

After the death of Khamenei, Mr Trump said America was “knocking the c--p” out of Iran and warned that a “big wave” of strikes was still to come.

Strikes on Iran by the US and Israel have sparked a wider conflict in the Middle East, which has entered its sixth day.

Videos shared by the Manchester Evening News showed scuffles between the two groups of demonstrators towards the end of the events. The scuffles were soon broken up by police.

Farage aide loses $550,000 betting on Iran war

Desk report:

A key aide to Nigel Farage is nursing significant losses after losing a bet on the timing of America’s military strike on Iran.

George Cottrell, an aristocratic banker, convicted fraudster and backer of the Reform UK leader, lost $550,000 (£411,000) last month after placing a wager on the Polymarket trading platform that the US would not bomb the Middle Eastern country. Polymarket is part of a new breed of so-called “prediction markets” that allow users to place “yes-no” bets on a range of topics, from politics and sports to the weather.

Mr Cottrell, 32, is understood to have placed a “no” bet on the question of whether the US would strike Iran. He bet “no” to the question, “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?”, wagering around $550,000 on the outcome. His stake was wiped out when America hit Iran on Feb 28, according to Polymarket data.

Mr Cottrell also made several other wagers on the date of the Iran strikes, which also lost him money.

The financier is a close confidant of Mr Farage. He has previously helped raise millions of pounds for Mr Farage’s parties, including Ukip and the Brexit Party. He has been a frequent aide to Mr Farage during his political campaigns and was pictured alongside the Reform leader when he was doused in milkshake during a visit to Clactonon-Sea, Essex. Mr Cottrell,

nicknamed “Posh George”, was born to an aristocratic family and brought up in Mustique. His mother is a former model and onetime girlfriend of the King, while his father attended Scottish boarding school Gordonstoun with Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. He spent several months in a US prison after being caught by undercover agents conspiring to commit

wire fraud, and recently launched his first book, How to Launder Money. Alongside his Iran bet, Mr Cottrell also appears to have lost an estimated $125,000 on bets that Sir Keir Starmer would be out of office by Feb 28.

At the same time, the gambling expert and political insider has won significant sums on Polymarket by correctly predicting the

outcomes of political events. He appears to have won more than $4.5m by betting that Donald Trump would win the 2024 presidential election, even though many political pundits and polls were backing Kamala Harris. Prediction market exchanges like Polymarket have exploded in popularity as users place “yes-no” bets on a range of topics, from sports and politics to weather and more.

Polymarket and others, such as Kalshi and Robinhood, do not yet offer their prediction market exchanges to users in Britain.

However, their increasing popularity in the US means many expect them to seek a licence to operate in the UK. Analysts have warned that prediction markets lead to greater losses than regulated sports betting in the US.

“Prediction markets are creating worse losses for the worst users, while more educated betters are winning more,” said Jordan Bender, gaming analyst at Citizens Bank in New York.

Allergy training to become compulsory in schools in England

Desk report:

Schools in England must provide allergy awareness training for all staff for the first time, under new statutory guidance announced by the Department for Education.

Spare adrenaline autoinjectors must also be stocked by schools for emergencies involving children without a prior allergy diagnosis.

The plans follow crossparty support for Benedict's Law, a campaign to improve allergy safety in schools by ensuring consistent, life-saving protections for children with food allergies and anaphylaxis.

However, Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders' union NAHT, warns each requirement in the new guidance needs funding and "schools cannot be expected to fund from their budgets".

Early education minister Olivia Bailey said: "Lots of schools in the country already have great policies in place and are already doing a lot of this. It is something which we think is reasonable for schools to pay for out of core budgets. We are committed to working with schools to make that as easy as possible."

The plans form part of the government's wider work to reform the school food system

and expand free school meals to an additional 500,000 children this September.

The campaign is named in memory of five-year-old Benedict Blythe, from Stamford in Lincolnshire, who died from an anaphylactic reaction at school in December 2021.

His mother Helen, who has campaigned alongside the National Allergy Strategy Group, describes today's announcement as "a really significant day".

She says there was a "catalogue of errors" that contributed to her son's death when he was given milk containing cow's milk protein at school, despite his allergy being on record.

An inquest last year into Benedict's death showed a failure by the school to identify his symptoms in time, meaning that he was not given the medication soon enough to save his life.

"We don't want any other families to go through what we've been through," Helen

Blythe said. "The experience of having an allergic reaction is really distressing and we want to guard against that wherever possible."

According to the DfE, 500,000 days of learning were lost last year due to allergyrelated illnesses or medical appointments. The government hopes the new statutory guidance will not only save lives, but also keep more children in school.

Helen Houghton, head teacher of Warter Primary School in East Yorkshire, described the new

guidance as "fundamental". She said 5% of children at her school have allergies, with some that are "quite complex" to manage.

In response, the school has allocated part of its budget towards further staff training and equipment for allergies. "It's a small amount to have them there and make sure everyone is safe," said Houghton, who meets in-person with parents of children with allergies to ensure a personalised medical plan is in place. "It must be terrifying to be a parent or a child with allergies, and I think certainly for the school it's about keeping our systems incredibly tight, incredibly consistent, and having a whole-school collective responsibility. It's so important to help reassure parents here that their children are safe."

Though some schools, like Warter Primary School, may already have allergy plans in place, today's announcement means these precautions will be compulsory across all schools in England.

A freedom of information request sent by the Benedict Blythe Foundation in 2024 found that 70% of schools in England did not have the recommended allergy safeguards in place, and half of all schools did not have adrenaline pens and spare auto-injectors on site.

Trump war goes global

Desk report: Before the first airstrike hit Iran on Saturday morning, analysts were warning that a war against Tehran would be a highly risky business. The regime has been in place for nearly 50 years, has a huge, well-trained and loyal military, proxies throughout the region and a huge stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones –plenty to wreak havoc across the region and beyond.

And so it has proved. While Israeli and American forces have been pounding targets across the country, Iran has responded by attacking Israel as well as US military targets in neighbouring Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Attacks have also been reported from Cyprus, Iraq and Jordan.

There is a fresh round of fighting in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah joined Iran in targeting Israel. Beirut is being bombarded.

The economic damage to the region has been enormous. Oil refineries have been shut down, the vital strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of the world’s oil cargo passes – is effectively closed, evacuation flights are leaving the Gulf states around the clock and people are cancelling their travel plans in droves.

And within days of the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in a targeted airstrike that also killed a number of his top advisers, a new leader is set to be picked. The smart money appears to be on his son, Mojtaba, known to be cut from very much the same authoritarian clerical cloth as his father. So the notion that with Iran you kill the figurehead and the regime collapses appears to be flawed, to say the least.

Just one week ago, American and Iranian negotiators were engaged in talks in Geneva, which were reported to be making “significant progress”. Now there’s no knowing how this conflict could escalate. On Wednesday, the downing of an Iranian missile over Turkish airspace prompted speculation that Nato would be pulled into a war it clearly doesn’t want. A US submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters off the coast of Sri Lanka.

There are so many moving parts to this conflict that the sense of jeopardy is at times overwhelming. My email inbox this morning contained a message from Robert Reich, who was Bill Clinton’s secretary of labour between 1993 and 1997 and is a trenchant and energetic critic of the US president, headed: “World War III? Trump’s and Netanyahu’s illegal war turns global”. Let’s not second-guess Armageddon just yet. But there’s no denying how dangerous the

situation is becoming as the conflict continues to spread. Scott Lucas, an expert in US and Middle East politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, answers some of the key questions about this fast-developing situation. This has gone beyond what the US president, Donald Trump, referred to as “major combat operations in Iran”. What it might become is anyone’s guess.

What we don’t have to guess is whether Trump is managing to take the American people with him on his foreign adventure.

A poll taken on March 2 and published by YouGov/ Economist found that US respondents oppose the war by a margin of 45% against to 32% in favour. Predictably, there’s a hugely partisan divide: most Republicans back their president, while Democrats are overwhelmingly anti war. Significantly, writes Paul Whiteley of the University of Essex, an expert pollster with an interest in UK and US politics, Independents are also against the war by a significant margin. Looking ahead to November’s mid-term elections, as the US president’s advisers undoubtedly are, things do not look good for Republicans’ chances of holding either the House or the Senate. And the war looks as if it will not end anytime soon. NBC News was reporting this afternoon that the Trump administration may invoke the Defense Production Act to accelerate the production of munitions, which would effectively move the US economy further on to a war footing.

This would seem to hint at something that analysts have speculated about, namely that a lengthy conflict could exhaust America’s stockpile of munitions. The US and its allies — including Israel and the Gulf states — are most acutely exposed to this shortage of defensive interceptors. It’s only been ten months since the US and Israel waged the 12day war against Iran and that depleted an enormous number of both countries’ defensive missiles, according to Andrew Gawthorpe, an expert in modern American history at Leiden University.

This inevitably means that Washington will have to pull munitions away from other theatres, including those earmarked for South Korea. It’s also fair to say there will be fewer available for Kyiv’s European allies to purchase for the defence of Ukraine, which will please Vladimir Putin no end. And whether an air campaign will be enough to achieve regime change – if that is indeed the purpose of this conflict – is debatable, writes Matthew Powell, an expert in air power at the University of Portsmouth. Air campaigns rarely work as intended – they often make matters worse, as the world saw after the Nato air campaign that led to the

After the last page

toppling of the country’s ruler, Muammar Gaddafi. With no coherent ground strategy to follow, things fell apart rapidly, with the terrible results that are with us to this day. ‘Special relationship’ under strain Keir Starmer certainly doesn’t believe in regime change “from the skies”, or so he told the House of Commons this week when fending off criticism of the UK government’s position on whether and how the UK should be involved in this conflict. As the US-Israeli attacks began, Starmer said that the UK would have none of it (due, in large part apparently, to his assessment of a lack of lawful basis for the campaign) and he was not prepared to allow America to use the UK’s bases in any capacity either.

He has since softened his stance, allowing the US to use some British bases, but purely for defensive purposes, to target Iranian ballistic launch sites that could threaten British interests in the region. But Donald Trump remains unimpressed and there’s no doubt that this episode has put severe pressure on the so-called “special relationship” between Britain and America. Matt Bar, of Nottingham Trent University, walks us through some of the ups and downs of this relationship over the decades and concludes that it has survived worse setbacks in its time. If this all wasn’t so serious, the US president’s reaction to not immediately getting his way from Starmer would be amusing. In fact it drew an involuntary bark of laughter when I read that, in a press session after a meeting with the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, on March 3, the US president threw a few barbs Starmer’s way, concluding that: “This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.” The view from Moscow and Beijing As you’d expect, Beijing was quick to condemn the strikes. China has been heavily dependent on its imports of oil from Iran, and regime change there would threaten this and force it to look elsewhere.

China is linked to Iran in a number of ways, including –significantly – via Tehran’s use of China’s satellite navigation system, BeiDou , which Beijing is touting as a possible replacement for the western Global Positioning System (GPS).

China-watcher Tom Harper, of the University of East London, assesses how this conflict will affect China and concludes that while it will cause turmoil in the short-term, a protracted conflict will play to its benefit in the long term. The assassination hit a raw nerve in Moscow. Putin, whose fear of assassination borders on the pathological, watched the killing of a fellow autocrat with undisguised alarm.

Iran is a close ally of Russia. Tehran provided huge numbers of its Shahed drones to Putin to

help him wage his illegal war in Ukraine, and Iran has also helped Moscow circumvent the west’s sanctions regime.

Stefan Wolff, an expert in international security at the University of Birmingham, believes that the conflict will play to Moscow’s advantage in the short term at least, as the US diverts munitions earmarked for purchase by Kyiv’s European allies. But he thinks the war is “unlikely to shift the dial significantly towards Russian victory in the long term”.

At PMQs on Wednesday, Sir Keir Starmer reiterated his determination for Britain not to be drawn further into the USIsraeli war with Iran.

He was “not prepared”, he told the House of Commons, “for the UK to join a war unless there was a lawful basis and a visible, thought-through plan”.

Yet Starmer has already changed his mind about the level of UK involvement once.

In such a fast-moving, unpredictable and deadly conflict – one that threatens to spread quickly – there is a significant risk of Britain being drawn in further still.

The Prime Minister had initially refused to let US forces use British bases, specifically Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, to launch strikes on Iran.

But 36 hours after the US and Israel began their offensive – which has since seen thousands of airstrikes unleashed on Iranian targets – and under pressure from Donald Trump, Starmer’s position shifted. At 9pm on Sunday night, he announced that US forces could use British bases, but only for “defensive” strikes on Iranian missile sites. He was reluctant to go further, he said, because the UK had learned “the lessons of Iraq”, and would not go to war without a legal casus belli.

Still, the about-turn has done little to appease Trump, who has repeatedly reiterated his displeasure with Starmer. On Monday, the President told The Telegraph he was “very disappointed” in him. A day later, Trump told reporters at the White House that it is “not Winston Churchill we’re dealing with”, in reference to Starmer.

Just hours after Starmer’s statement, a drone – believed to be Iranian – struck RAF Akrotiri, a British air base in Cyprus. Two further drones were intercepted on Monday.

In response to the increased threat, HMS Dragon, a Type 45 destroyer, has been sent to the Mediterranean to provide additional air defence, although it is not expected to arrive for another fortnight. Iran has also struck the US Fifth Fleet

base in Bahrain, where British personnel are stationed. In Iraq, a missile landed just 400 metres from British personnel at a coalition base, set up as part of the fight against the Islamic State. British F35s and other forces have shot down an unspecified number of drones over Jordan, Qatar and Iraq.

Analysts say that for all Starmer’s careful positioning, the UK is now, for all intents and purposes, at war.

”[The UK is] involved,” says Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a military think tank. “There’s already been a drone strike on Cyprus, and UK personnel are at the site in Manama, Bahrain, where the Fifth Fleet was hit. So the question is actually, ‘To what extent do we wish to get more involved? Do we wish to play a largely defensive role, or do we want to join in?’”

Politically, militarily and diplomatically, there are many reasons for Britain not to be drawn into a war being prosecuted without an obvious plan or goal. It would be expensive and unpopular – YouGov polling shows just 28 per cent of Britons support action against Iran, while nearly half object to the US using British bases.

Practically, however, it may be difficult for Britain to avoid escalation.

There are hundreds of thousands of Britons living in the Middle East, and more than 130,000 of them have registered their presence with the Foreign Office this week. Many had been lured by high salaries and low tax rates to the gleaming cities of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha, where Iranian missiles and drones have closed the airports and sent thousands scurrying to basement shelters in recent days. With British civilians ostensibly under attack, the Government has moved to protect them. At PMQs on Wednesday, Starmer said that more than 1,000 British nationals had returned on commercial flights, with more planned in the coming days.

In addition to RAF Akrotiri – the largest permanent RAF base outside the UK, where 4,000 servicemen and women are stationed along with F-35 and Eurofighter jets – there are also three permanent British sites in the region. There is a UK Naval Support Facility in Bahrain; a joint logistics support base in Duqm, Oman; and the Donnelly Lines facility at the Al-Minhad base in the UAE. British forces also have access to the Al-Udeid base in Qatar. Additionally, there is Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, which is within striking distance of Iran for long-range US bombers.