The AgriPost
August 29, 2025
Farmers Share Strategy Amid Canola Market’s Uncertainty
Market analyst Jonathon Driedger said Canada’s crop size adds to the challenge. “One factor adding to the pressure is that the Canadian crop appears to be getting bigger, creating more supply just as demand faces challenges. We’ll likely keep trading lower for now, but I don’t think the Submitted photo outlook is deeply bearish.”
By Harry Siemens Canadian canola farmers face sharp uncertainty as China’s preliminary ruling on Canadian canola seed imports raises the stakes for the 2025 harvest. While some producers look for silver linings, industry leaders warn of serious impacts on trade, farm revenue, and market stability. At Roblin, MB, farmer Deven Bailey said he focuses on the long view. “I try to look for positives in negative situations. I don’t know the future—tariffs could
end tomorrow for all I know. The last time China made headlines, everyone panicsold, and six weeks later, there was a rally with opportunity,” said Bailey. “Canola will likely still out-profit wheat for us this year anyway. Doesn’t change my acres at all.” Near Boissevain, MB, farmer Jason Hildebrand agreed that timing remains uncertain. “It will depend on the findings of China’s final report this fall,” said Hildebrand. “The tariff definitely hurt, but the market was likely due for a sea-
sonal drop heading into harvest anyway. Time will tell.” Kelly Green, Vice-President of Communications at the Canadian Canola Growers Association (CCGA), outlined the broader implications. “China is Canada’s secondlargest market for canola overall and the largest market for canola seed exports. In 2024, the Canadian canola trade value with China hit $4.9 billion,” said Green. “That market cannot be quickly or fully replaced, despite some progress in ongoing diversification
efforts.” Green said canola remains the number one source of farm revenue in Canada. “Canola generated $12.9 billion in farm cash receipts in 2024,” said Green. “These tariffs will directly affect Canada’s nearly 40,000 canola farmers and the rural communities they support. With the 2025 harvest underway, an announcement like this creates significant instability and unpredictability for farmers as they prepare to put the new crop into storage.” Continued on Page 2...
Exports Up, Higher Yields Ahead, Says AAFC Bulletin By Elmer Heinrichs The 2024-2025 crop year concluded on July 31, 2025, for the majority of field crops, with the exception of corn and soybeans. Total exports of all principal field crops recorded a strong year-over-year (y/y) increase of 15 per cent and were up 13 per cent relative to the fiveyear average. This growth was primarily driven by elevated shipments of wheat and oilseeds, supported by moderate gains for coarse grains, pulses, and special crops. As a result, carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) of all principal field crops are projected to fall by 22 per cent, driven by a sharp decrease in carry-out for total grains and oilseeds, offsetting a modest increase for pulse and special crops carry-out. Price forecasts for most field crops are trending lower than the previous year, consistent with broader declines across international commodity markets. Notably, corn, flaxseed, and sunflower seed are exceptions, with prices expected to remain firm or increase due to specific market dynamics. For 2025-2026, data from AAFC’s Canadian crop yield forecast (CCYF) has informed the analysis of this month’s outlook. The recent CCYF forecast incorporates remote sensing and climate data up to July 31, 2025. The production of all principal field crops is expected to increase modestly by 1 per cent and be higher than the five-year average by 7 per cent. Total supply of all principal field crops is projected to decrease by 1 per cent, though, as the decrease in carry-in stocks (beginning-year inventories) offsets the increase in production. Carryout stocks of all principal field crops are projected to increase by 32 per cent, driven higher largely by an 11 per cent decrease in exports, particularly for grains and oilseeds. While overall crop conditions have improved, drought conditions continue to be present in many parts of Western Canada, concludes the AAFC.