The AgriPost
March 29, 2024
Manitoba’s Flood Risk Minor
Signs of Spring:
Enjoying the
By Elmer Heinrichs
“Cow Lick”
A Red Simmental calf named Dolly (tag number 59-4) gets a bit of extra attention from her mom at Aaron Schmidt’s farm north of Plumas, Manitoba. Dolly is one of 62 born so far on the farm with another 19 ready to make an appearance. Photo courtesy of Krista Schmidt
There is only a low to moderate risk of significant spring flooding across Manitoba basins, says transportation and infrastructure’s hydrologic forecast centre in its spring outlook. Normal-to below-normal soil moisture at freeze-up and normal-to wellbelow-normal winter precipitation for most Manitoba basins have contributed to the low-to-moderate risk of spring flooding across the province. Water levels are expected to remain below dikes and community or individual flood protection levels. However, the risk of flooding may change depending on weather conditions including amount of precipitation between now and the spring melt. The spring flooding risk is low to moderate for the Red River and tributaries including the Roseau River and the Pembina River. Most Manitoba Lake levels are normal to below normal for this time of year and within their capacity ranges. The risk of lakes flooding is low for most Manitoba lakes. The Red River Floodway is not expected to be operated under normal and favourable future weather scenarios. However, in the event of unfavourable weather conditions, the floodway could be operated to mitigate water levels in Winnipeg. The Shellmouth Reservoir is being operated to reduce the risk of flooding downstream on the Assiniboine River, while providing sufficient storage for water supply and recreation. This forecast could change depending on weather conditions including amount of precipitation between now and the spring melt. The next flood outlook will be released in late March and will have a better assessment of Manitoba’s spring runoff conditions at that time. The Manitoba government, local authorities and First Nations communities are proactively preparing for any spring flooding. This includes ice cutting and breaking on the Red River in late February, reviewing emergency plans, information sharing between governments and preparing resources used in flood responses.