The AgriPost
July 26, 2024
Prairies’ Varied Weather Impacting Yield Estimates
Travelling between Carmen and Winkler, some farmers could harvest early winter wheat crops within a few weeks.
By Harry Siemens In a recent interview, Jonathon Driedger from LeftField Commodity Research in Hanover, Manitoba, provided valuable insights into the current state of agricultural markets. Driedger shared his perspectives on the market dynamics affecting various crops as the recorder started rolling. When asked what’s going on in the markets right now, Driedger said, “It varies a little bit by crop,” he began. “Canola’s been a bit of a bright spot, but most markets have been under some pressure. Whether you’re looking at wheat, soybeans, or corn, the market conditions largely respond to the fact that crop conditions, for the most part, are pretty good both in Canada and the US.” Driedger, “In aggregate, crops are getting bigger in North America rather than smaller, and prices are behaving accordingly. We’re still a little behind in heat units, and some areas
are a bit wet, but it’s growing the crop.” He highlighted the cautious approach to yield estimates, saying, “We’ve been a little wary about being too aggressive in walking our yield estimates up because the crop is behind in some areas.” The heat is helping pull it along, but some areas have been too wet, and parts of western Canada are too dry. These factors need watching. “We’re watching the forecast with some high temperatures, which could potentially set us back. But all else equal, crops are getting bigger rather than smaller for the most part. Canola might be more of a question mark, but overall, things look pretty good,” said Driedger. Conditions also vary between Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba. Driedger stressed the importance of not getting ahead of the season. “We still have a lot of weather ahead of us. Walking into
the field always looks different than passing by at highway speed. We’re always a little wary about getting too far ahead of ourselves at this point in the year, but overall, it’s pretty good,” he said. Addressing international pressures, Driedger, “There’s always moving parts with international markets. Russia and Ukraine, for example, are massive producers and exporters of wheat and other crops. They will have a smaller wheat crop this year, but that’s been known for a while, and the market factored it in already.” Bigger wheat crops in Canada, the US, Australia, and Argentina offset some of this. “However, if you look at the bigger picture, the wheat market may be overdone to the downside. Prices typically come under pressure as we start harvesting winter and spring wheat unless there’s a significant problem,” he noted.
Photo by Harry Siemens
Driedger wrapped up with some reflections on market dynamics and future expectations. While travelling between Carmen and Winkler, some farmers could harvest early winter wheat crops within a few weeks. It was a late wet spring for much of western Canada, especially Manitoba but earlyplanted crops are doing well, and higher temperatures are helping others catch up. “Most farmers would rather have a good yield, even if the price isn’t ideal than a high price with a poor yield. Hopefully, we’ll get that balance of heat and showers to keep the crops growing well,” said Driedger. His insights underscore the complexities and ever-changing dynamics of agricultural markets, highlighting the importance of weather conditions, market expectations, and international factors in shaping the outlook for various crops.
Less Wheat Planted, but More Soybeans, Dry Peas and Oats By Elmer Heinrichs Canadian farmers reported planting more soybeans, lentils, dry peas and oats, but fewer acres of wheat, canola, corn and barley, according to the Statistics Canada June 2024 field crop survey. Conditions in western Canada were drier than average over the winter, resulting in concerns about soil moisture leading into the 2024 growing season. However, beginning in April, most of the Prairies began receiving much needed precipitation. Widespread rainfall resulted in some seeding delays; however, precipitation has helped improve soil moisture conditions. Provincial reports indicated slower seeding progress compared with the five-year average, but most areas had been planted by early June. In general, average temperatures across the Prairies were mixed, with some cooler areas receiving snowfall and near-freezing conditions during planting. At the national level, farmers reported seeding fewer acres of wheat in 2024, down 1.1 per cent to 26.6 million acres. Although this is down compared with the previous year, wheat area remained well above the five-year average of 25.0 million acres, possibly because of favourable pricing. Lower total wheat area was driven by spring wheat (-2.8 per cent to 18.9 million acres) and winter wheat (-5.8 per cent to 1.3 million acres), offsetting higher durum wheat area (+5.5 per cent to 6.4 million acres). Manitoba producers reported that total wheat seeded area decreased 1.4% to 3.2 million acres in 2024. Nationally, soybean area rose 2.0 per cent to 5.7 million acres in 2024. This is above the fiveyear average and the highest area since 2018. Producers in larger soybean-growing provinces may have opted to seed soybeans based on good prices relative to other crops, such as corn. But Manitoba farmers reported planting less soybean area compared with the previous year, decreasing 10.6 per cent to 1.4 million acres in 2024.